宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%，前值为 52.6%，回落 2.8 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%， 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%，前值为 49.0%。3） PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%，前值为 48.2%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前值为 50.3%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%，前值为 47.2%。 其他行业：1）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2）服务业：服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3）综合产出：4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点， 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评：三类行业继续保持扩张态势 （一）外部环境急剧变化影响下，部分指标出现下滑 4 月，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Life Insurance (601628) with a target price of 51.7 CNY [2]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. The new business value (NBV) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while net and total investment returns were 2.6% and 2.75%, respectively, down by 0.22 percentage points and 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in performance compared to its peers in the life insurance sector, primarily due to a substantial decrease in insurance service costs [7]. - The transformation of product offerings is showing clear results, with floating income products accounting for 52% of first-year premium income, a significant increase year-on-year. This shift is expected to help mitigate the cost pressures associated with guaranteed returns [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue (million CNY): 2024: 528,567; 2025E: 502,046; 2026E: 510,364; 2027E: 514,581 [8]. - Net Profit (million CNY): 2024: 106,935; 2025E: 87,430; 2026E: 90,028; 2027E: 91,854 [8]. - Earnings per Share (CNY): 2024: 3.78; 2025E: 3.09; 2026E: 3.19; 2027E: 3.25 [8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 2025E: 12.2; 2026E: 11.9; 2027E: 11.6 [8]. - Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): 2025E: 2.0; 2026E: 2.0; 2027E: 2.0 [8]. Investment Insights - The company’s investment assets reached 6.82 trillion CNY by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.1% increase from the end of the previous year. Despite fluctuations in interest rates, the company’s net investment yield decreased, primarily due to the expiration of high-yield fixed-income products [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's performance will improve in Q2 2025 as interest rates decline, potentially alleviating some of the negative impacts from floating losses on bonds [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中金黄金（600489）2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 强推（维持） 金、铜价格上行带动业绩稳步增长 目标价：17.9 元 事项： 评论： 金、铜价格上行带动 24 年业绩稳步提升。2024 年，国内黄金、铜市场均价分 别同比+23.8%、+10%，其中四季度黄金、铜均价分别同比+30.6%、+11%，分 别环比+7.9%、+0.3%。受益金价上行，公司全年实现归母净利润 33.86 亿元， 同比增长 13.71%，其中四季度实现营业收入 195.11 亿元，同比+24.21%，环 比+11.41%，归母净利润 7.43 亿元，同比-17.98%，环比-17.5%。其中湖北三鑫 金铜净利润 10.2 亿元（+27.9%）、内蒙古矿业 22.8 亿元（-0.24%）、河南中原 黄金冶炼厂 5.6 亿元（-10.65%）。 公司研究 黄金 2025 年 04 月 30 日 当前价：13.97 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 厦门国贸（600755）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 公司提高分红比例延续高股息回报，一季度 实现小幅增长 ❖ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、大宗商品价格剧烈波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 354,440 | 314,548 | 324,229 | 343,048 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | -11.3% | 3.1% | 5.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 626 | 1,278 | 1,509 | 1,656 | | 同比增速(%) | -67.3% | 104.3% | 18.0% | 9.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.51 | | 市盈率(倍) | 173 | 18 | 14 | 12 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 注：每股盈利扣除了永续债利息 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 37 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.6% to 4.29 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9 billion yuan, up 38.3%, and net profit increased by 63.1% to 1.32 billion yuan [2][4]. - The rapid growth in the electric vehicle sector is a significant profit driver, with the company's subsidiary achieving a revenue of 16.2 billion yuan in 2024, a 73% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company's internationalization strategy is a key long-term support, with overseas revenue expected to reach 2 billion yuan in 2024, a 17% increase [8]. - The company has officially entered the humanoid robot market, focusing on developing core components and intelligent solutions [8]. - The investment forecast has been adjusted to reflect the rapid growth in the electric vehicle business, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 being 46.5 billion, 55.5 billion, and 65.7 billion yuan respectively [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 37.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.285 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.6% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.12 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 [4][9]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 57.18 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 23.4% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of HKD 17.8 [1][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 11.3 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 92.7%. Insurance service revenue rose by 6.1% to CNY 120.7 billion, while the combined cost ratio (COR) improved by 3.4 percentage points to 94.5%, significantly outperforming peers [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a low base and contributions from fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL) equity assets, leading to an increase in investment returns. The annualized total investment return rate was 1.2%, up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with total investment income growing by CNY 2.7 billion [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 3.7% increase in original premium income to CNY 180.4 billion, with a COR of 94.5%, which is better than peers like China Taiping (97.4%) and Ping An (96.6%) [1][7]. - The underwriting profit surged by 183% to CNY 6.7 billion, with growth in auto insurance premiums by 3.5% and increases in accident and corporate property insurance, although agricultural and liability insurance saw declines [1][7]. - The report projects insurance service revenue for 2025 to be CNY 190.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.6% [3][8]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to CNY 1.69, CNY 1.86, and CNY 2.08 respectively, reflecting the company's strong performance and market position [1][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 8.99 in 2024 to 6.24 by 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [3][8]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 308.7 billion and a circulating market value of HKD 95.8 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.8% [4][8]. - The stock price as of April 29, 2025, was HKD 13.88, with a 12-month high of HKD 15.2 and a low of HKD 8.70 [4][8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the long-term growth in the property and casualty insurance sector will be driven by developments in new energy vehicle insurance and the optimization of cost structures through partnerships with automotive companies [1][7].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 光线传媒（300251）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 《哪吒 2》驱动 Q1 业绩高增，后续片单储备 丰富，IP 价值持续挖掘 事项： ❖ 24 年全年实现收入 15.86 亿元（YOY+3%），归母净利润 2.92 亿元（YOY-30%）， 扣非归母净利润 2.44 亿元（YOY-37%），同比下降 37%。25Q1 实现营收 29.75 亿元（YOY+178%），归母净利润 20.16 亿元（YOY+375%），扣非归母净利润 20 亿元（YOY+381%)。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,586 | 4,407 | 2,254 | 2,720 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.6% | 177.9% | -48.9% | 20.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 292 | 2,462 | 1,042 | 1,215 | | 同比增速(%) ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外业务提速，受益中高端渗透率提升 目标价：13.2 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报：公司 2024 年营收为 21.3 亿元，同比 +6.9%；归母净利润为 1.67 亿元，同比+2.2%；扣非净利润为 1.58 亿元，同比 +10.0%。公司 2025 年一季度营收为 4.08 亿元，同比+18.4%；归母利润为 0.34 亿元，同比+38.4%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,129 | 2,595 | 3,115 | 3,686 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.9% | 21.9% | 20.1% | 18.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 167 | 239 | 305 | 376 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.2% | 43.0% | 27.5% | 23.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is currently increasing its investment in content, which is expected to pressure short-term profits, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential uplift from high-quality content [1][6]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.08 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.364 billion yuan, down 61.6% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13%, and a net profit of 379 million yuan, down 19.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company is in a phase of strategic transformation, focusing on increasing the production of high-quality dramas, which is expected to enhance its market share in the long run [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 13.253 billion yuan in 2025, 14.643 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.883 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -5.9%, 10.5%, and 8.5% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 1.837 billion yuan in 2025, 2.095 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.241 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.7%, 14.0%, and 7.0% respectively [2][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.98 yuan in 2025, 1.12 yuan in 2026, and 1.20 yuan in 2027 [2][7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 29.5 yuan, with the current price at 22.51 yuan, indicating potential upside [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]