证券研究报告 计算机 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 10 日 Manus 推高 AI Agent 关注度，AI+医疗有望加速落地 ——计算机行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230124010005 分析师：孙伯文 Manus 再度提升 AI Agent 关注度，产业趋势进一步强化。Manus 是由 Monica 团队推出的通用 AI Agent，能够操作电脑，做出决策 并执行任务。其核心能力包括：自主任务执行、网页浏览和研究、 代码开发、数据分析、内容创作和任务回放。AI Agent 或接力 Chat bot，成为下一阶段主流 AI 产品形态。根据当前的 Agent 产品， AI Agent 是指能够支持自然语言输入，能够根据用户请求自动拆 解任务并自主决策和执行的 AI 应用。从 AI 的最终形态来看， AI 能够在识别、理解、推理的基础上参与决策并执行操作是发展 AGI 的必经之路。相比于 Chatbot，Agent 在拓展 AI 应用场景的 同时，有望进一步推高推理侧算力需求。输入层面：Agent 拆解 认为需先浏览网页、解析文档、音频及视频等多源数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a focus on becoming a leading comprehensive beverage group, enhancing brand value and market competitiveness [6] - The flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, has shown steady growth, capturing a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, marking a 4.9 percentage point increase year-on-year [6] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 15.839 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.81%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 21.00%, reflecting a 2.89 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 5.789 billion yuan, a 76.44% increase year-on-year [4] Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings into electrolyte drinks, sugar-free tea, and large-packaged beverages, which supports product structure optimization [9] - The second growth curve, "Dongpeng Water," has entered the "billion-level product" category, with a sales volume share of 6.7%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to deepen its national and omnichannel strategies while exploring international markets, including establishing a presence in Indonesia [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20.456 billion yuan, 25.393 billion yuan, and 30.189 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.15%, 24.13%, and 18.89% [9] - Net profit projections for the same years are 4.427 billion yuan, 5.657 billion yuan, and 6.901 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.06%, 27.80%, and 21.99% [9] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 26.9X for 2025, decreasing to 17.3X by 2027 [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a strong expectation of fundamental improvement due to policy support, with a high market risk appetite compared to the uncertainties in the US market caused by tariff policies [4][17]. - The major indices showed positive performance from March 3 to March 7, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.56% and the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.39% [17]. - The consumer price index (CPI) in February decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the Spring Festival and a decline in food prices [4][8]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The government work report emphasizes the need to boost consumption and effective investment, focusing on sectors such as home appliances and automobiles [22]. - The real estate sector is highlighted with the government’s first mention of "stabilizing the property market" in its overall requirements, indicating a supportive policy environment [22]. - There is a strong focus on independent technological innovation and advanced manufacturing, with attention on electronics, digital economy, power equipment, and machinery [22]. Group 3: Export Performance - In the first two months of 2025, exports reached 3.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 60% of total exports [10][12]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in automatic data processing equipment (11.7%) and integrated circuits (13.2%) [10][12]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank plans to enhance financial support for technological innovation, increasing the re-lending scale from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan [19]. - The government aims to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while expanding high-end supply [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the communication industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the expansion of 5G applications, the acceleration of industrial internet innovation, and the development of future industries such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G. It also highlights the promotion of commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy as emerging industries [3][22]. - A national venture capital fund is being established to attract nearly 1 trillion yuan in social capital, focusing on hard technology sectors including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy storage, which are expected to drive the communication industry chain's accelerated development [4][18]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On March 5, the government work report mentioned the need to optimize the layout of national computing resources and create internationally competitive digital industry clusters [3][22]. - The report also noted the establishment of a "carrier-level" national venture capital fund aimed at early, small, long-term investments in hard technology [4][18]. Industry Performance - The communication index rose by 2.81% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different performance levels [11]. Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include: - Operators: China Mobile (600941.SH), China Unicom (600050.SH), China Telecom (601728.SH) [25]. - Light module demand: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), Guangxun Technology (002281.SZ) [25]. - Communication equipment manufacturers: ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ), Unisoc (000938.SZ), Quectel (603236.SH) [25]. - Commercial aerospace opportunities: China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), Huace Navigation (300627.SZ) [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the low-altitude economy sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The government work report from the Two Sessions in 2025 emphasizes the promotion of the low-altitude economy and other emerging industries, indicating a shift from "development exploration" to "pilot operation" in 2025. Over 30 provinces have introduced special policies to support this transition [4][9]. - The application of eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) and drones is highlighted as crucial for the low-altitude economy, with significant potential in various sectors such as logistics, aerial photography, and urban transportation. eVTOL is expected to reduce travel time significantly, with costs projected to drop to 6 yuan per kilometer per person [4][9]. - The low-altitude economy index has shown a positive performance, increasing by 3.38% over the past two weeks, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 [10][11]. Industry Dynamics - The 2025 Two Sessions reiterated the importance of low-altitude economy infrastructure, with calls for enhanced planning, standardization, and regulatory frameworks to support its development [14][15]. - Recent legislative changes, including amendments to the Civil Aviation Law, aim to foster the growth of general aviation and low-altitude economy, encouraging local governments to support the industry [15][16]. - Significant investments and projects are being initiated, such as the signing of a cooperation agreement in Guiyang worth 10.6 billion yuan for low-altitude economic development [17][18]. Company Dynamics - EHang Intelligent has partnered with Jianghuai Automobile and Guoxian Holdings to establish an eVTOL manufacturing base in Hefei, focusing on advanced and automated production [19]. - The electric flying car Model A, backed by Elon Musk, has successfully completed test flights and is expected to be delivered in Q4 2025, indicating advancements in flying vehicle technology [19]. - SF Express has ordered 100 ES1000 large unmanned transport aircraft from Yifei Aviation Technology, marking a significant step in the commercialization of drone logistics [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the low-altitude economy: 1. Manufacturing: Companies like Zongshen Power, Wanfeng Aowei, Wolong Electric Drive, and others are highlighted. 2. Infrastructure: Companies such as Lais Information, Huase Group, and Sichuan Jiuzhou are recommended. 3. Operations: Firms like CITIC Haizhi, Xiyu Tourism, and Xiangyuan Culture are noted for their potential [7][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - The launch of the new models, AITO M8 and M9, marks the beginning of a new vehicle cycle for Hongmeng Zhixing, with pre-sale prices set at 478,000 and 368,000 yuan respectively. The pre-sale orders exceeded 18,000 and 36,000 units within 36 hours [5][11]. - The report highlights the potential for multiple blockbuster models to emerge from the new vehicle cycle, driven by strong collaboration between Huawei and SAIC, which may introduce the "Shangjie" brand by Q4 2025 [5][11]. - The automotive sector has shown resilience, with the automotive index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69 percentage points during the week of March 3 to March 7, 2025 [5][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Geely has launched the "Qianli Haohan" advanced driving system, enhancing its position in AI-driven automotive technology [12]. - WeRide has initiated the first public road autonomous driving service in Europe, deploying L4 autonomous minibuses in France [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported over 700,000 applications for vehicle replacement subsidies in 2025, indicating strong market activity [16]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's index rose by 3.08% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and auto parts showing positive growth [37][42]. - The report notes that the PE ratio for the automotive sector is 28.9, reflecting a week-on-week increase [42]. Data Tracking - In January 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.7936 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.03% [49]. - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 41.5% in January 2025, with retail sales of 744,100 units, marking an 11.44% increase year-on-year [49][53]. - The report indicates that the penetration rate for L2.5 and above intelligent driving systems reached a historical high of 14.39% in December 2024 [55].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "Five Articles" aim to enhance financing accessibility, product adaptability, and institutional mechanisms by 2027[3] - The core focus is on deepening supply-side structural reforms in finance and strengthening collaboration with technology, industry, and fiscal policies[3] Group 2: Key Areas and Implementation Paths - Technology Finance: Support major national technology tasks and SMEs, emphasizing early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments[4] - Green Finance: Develop a green finance standard system and promote carbon accounting and sustainable information disclosure[4] - Inclusive Finance: Optimize services for SMEs, rural revitalization, and social welfare, expanding coverage of credit loans[4] - Pension Finance: Develop a multi-pillar pension insurance system and enhance investment management of pension funds[4] - Digital Finance: Accelerate digital transformation of financial institutions and establish a data sharing and governance system[4] Group 3: Institutional and Risk Management - State-owned banks will increase support across the five key areas, while smaller banks will focus on specialized services[6] - Establish a "one leader responsible" system and improve due diligence accountability[6] - Implement risk management tailored to each sector, including the development of risk assessment models for technology innovation[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of policies that support manufacturing upgrades, overseas expansion, and new urbanization, highlighting opportunities in these areas [4][8] - The government plans to implement a special action to boost consumption, with a proposed allocation of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement programs, which is expected to stimulate a consumption scale of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the expansion of high-level opening-up policies and support for foreign trade will inject strong momentum into overseas expansion, with a focus on resilient performance and high valuation of export-oriented industries [8] - The new urbanization strategy is expected to create structural demand for construction machinery, particularly in the renovation of old residential areas and urban renewal projects [8] Summary by Sections Policy and Economic Goals - The report outlines the government's focus on boosting domestic demand through consumption and effective investment, with a central budget investment of 735 billion yuan planned for 2025 [4] - The emphasis is placed on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, as well as the promotion of digital economy innovations [5] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities in consumer electronics, agricultural machinery, overseas expansion, and engineering machinery [9] - Specific companies to watch include Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157.SZ), Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ), and Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), among others [9][10] Market Trends - The report notes that the demand for construction machinery is expected to rise due to urban renewal projects and the expansion of subsidy programs for equipment updates [8] - The anticipated increase in the penetration rate of elevators in multi-story residential buildings is highlighted as a structural demand driver [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The government work report for 2025 mentions "commercial aerospace" twice, highlighting the rapid development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and the Beidou application [5]. - In 2024, China's commercial aerospace sector saw significant growth, with a record 68 rocket launches, including 12 by private companies, and a total of 257 satellites launched, of which 201 were commercial satellites [5]. - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a new phase of large-scale application in 2025, with a market size projected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, supported by international cooperation [5]. Summary by Sections Government Report Highlights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the safe and healthy development of commercial aerospace, marking a transition to large-scale applications [5]. - The report outlines the need for technological breakthroughs and the promotion of new technologies and products in the commercial aerospace sector [5]. Market Outlook - The commercial aerospace industry is anticipated to undergo a transformation and upgrade period, with continuous market expansion expected due to international collaboration [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the relevant industry chain, specifically mentioning China Satellite Communications (601698.SH) and Aerospace Electronics (600879.SH) [5].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a more proactive macro policy, including an increase in fiscal policy strength with a deficit rate rising to 4% and a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan for 2025, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from 2024 [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, marking a shift in macroeconomic regulation to focus on asset prices, with specific measures outlined for both markets [5][6] - The report identifies key areas for investment opportunities, including domestic demand expansion, new production capabilities, capital market reforms, and green development initiatives [6][7] Group 2 - The report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with urban employment expected to exceed 12 million and a consumer price index (CPI) target set at around 2% [7] - The report outlines a comprehensive approach to boosting consumption and investment, including specific actions to enhance consumer spending and effective investment in key projects [5][6] - The report introduces new concepts such as "embodied intelligence" and "6G," indicating a focus on future industries and technological advancements [6]