Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the express delivery sector, specifically recommending Shentong Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and Yunda Express [6][20][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in the express delivery sector driven by price increases and seasonal demand, with expectations for significant profit elasticity in the second half of 2025 [1][3]. - Despite August being a traditional off-peak season, the industry is experiencing improved sentiment due to anti-involution measures, which are expected to sustain price increases through the end of the year [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the normalization of social security and the development of industry regulations will elevate valuation levels in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In August, the total retail sales growth slowed to +3.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales growing at +7.1%, indicating stronger online performance compared to offline [2]. - The express delivery volume in August increased by +12.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][3]. Price Trends - The average price per delivery piece in August was 7.37 RMB, showing a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of -7.2% [2][3]. - Price increases have been implemented in over 75% of regions, with expectations for continued price recovery in September [2][3]. Company Recommendations - Shentong Express and YTO Express are the top picks, followed by ZTO Express and Yunda Express, with a specific mention of Jitu Express benefiting from high growth in overseas markets [1][3][6]. - The report emphasizes that Shentong Express has shown the best balance of volume and price, leading to the fastest revenue growth in August [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that the express delivery sector will see a significant rebound in profitability due to ongoing price increases and the impact of anti-involution policies [3][21]. - Specific financial forecasts for companies include adjustments to net profit estimates for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the competitive landscape and pricing strategies [21][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry [2] Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment market is experiencing a bifurcation, with a slowdown in overseas demand while the Chinese market is expected to see growth driven by domestic companies [4][5] - AI-related demand is anticipated to continue driving capital expenditures in the semiconductor sector, particularly in advanced logic and storage [6][8] - The report forecasts a 14% year-on-year increase in semiconductor capital expenditures for 2025, reaching $148 billion, and a 12% increase in global equipment market size to $142 billion [7][8] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - In Q2 2025, global semiconductor equipment revenue grew by 24% year-on-year to $34 billion, with overseas markets driven by AI-related investments showing a 40% increase [7] - The report predicts that global semiconductor equipment revenue will reach $153 billion in 2026, representing an 8% year-on-year growth [6][8] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese semiconductor equipment market saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a domestic equipment localization rate increasing by 6 percentage points to 21% [4] - Major domestic companies like Zhongwei and Northern Huachuang reported significant revenue growth, with Zhongwei's revenue increasing by 51.3% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2026, the localization rate of domestic equipment in China will rise to 29%, driven by ongoing investments in advanced logic and storage [6][8] - Key players such as TSMC, Samsung, and Hynix are expected to lead capital expenditure growth, with projected increases of 8%, 6%, and 9% respectively for 2026 [6] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights three main investment opportunities: continued growth in AI-driven advanced logic capital expenditures, sustained investment in China's advanced logic, and the ongoing trend of "East rising, West declining" in the semiconductor equipment market [8][20] - Companies to watch include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei, and other domestic firms that are expected to benefit from increased localization and technological advancements [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [9][42]. Core Insights - Recent data indicates a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 44 cities rising by 14% week-on-week [1][12]. - The inventory of new homes in 21 key cities has slightly decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, while the second-hand housing listings have increased by 0.1% compared to the previous week [1][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes and prices in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery for companies with resources in these areas [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the real estate development sector rose by 0.71% [2]. - The report notes a year-to-date decline of 6% in new housing transaction area across 44 cities, contrasting with a 14% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - Recommended companies include: - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.42 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.40 - Greentown Services (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 - Wanwu Cloud (2602 HK) with a target price of 32.29 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 - Jianfa International Group (1908 HK) with a target price of 21.60 - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) with a target price of 18.05 - China Resources Mixc Life (1209 HK) with a target price of 46.60 [3][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - As of September 14, the inventory of new homes in 21 cities has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [32]. - The second-hand housing listings in 20 sample cities have increased to approximately 2.484 million units, up 0.1% from the previous week and 8.7% from the end of last year [35][1]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the new housing sales area in 44 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 8% from September 1 to 19, with first-tier cities seeing a 22% increase [12]. - The second-hand housing sales area in 22 cities has increased by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up 35% [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [6] Core Insights - The industry cycle is on an upward trend, with internal differentiation observed across various segments [18] - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has significantly increased, with domestic sales reaching 6.935 million units in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 40% [29] - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing robust growth, with new installations reaching 56.1 GWh in 25H1, up 68% year-on-year [3] - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is driven by a surge in installations, with domestic PV installations increasing by 168% year-on-year in Q2 [4] - Wind power installations also saw substantial growth, with new installations of 51.4 GW in 25H1, a 99% increase year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Domestic NEV sales reached 6.935 million units in 25H1, up 40% year-on-year, with battery installations at 299.7 GWh, a 47% increase [29][30] - The average battery capacity for domestic NEVs increased to 51.5 kWh, up 9.8% year-on-year [29] - The report highlights the importance of companies with cost and technology advantages in the supply chain [2] Energy Storage - New energy storage installations in China reached 56.1 GWh in 25H1, a 68% increase year-on-year, driven by policy incentives [3] - The bidding scale for energy storage projects reached 176.6 GWh, up 181% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [3] - The report anticipates that domestic energy storage installations could exceed 150 GWh by the end of 25 [3] Photovoltaics - The domestic PV sector saw a significant increase in installations, with Q2 25H1 showing a 168% year-on-year growth [4] - The report notes that the PV industry is benefiting from price recovery and increased shipment volumes, leading to improved profitability [4] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics to reshape the industry landscape [4] Wind Power - Wind power installations in China reached 51.4 GW in 25H1, marking a 99% increase year-on-year, with a bidding scale of 71.9 GW, up 9% [5] - The report indicates that the wind turbine prices have stabilized and are expected to recover due to changes in bidding rules [5] - The outlook for the wind power sector remains positive, particularly for offshore wind projects [5] Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing upward momentum, with revenue growth of 17.3% year-on-year in 25Q2 [12] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) industry, driven by increased investment in data centers [12] - Companies with strong product iteration barriers and deep customer relationships are recommended for investment [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 23.33 [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the steady progress of the major shareholder's increase in holdings, reflecting confidence in the bank's value and development potential [5][6]. - Recent trends show a wave of share buybacks among listed banks, indicating strong recognition of value and confidence in future growth [8]. - The bank's fundamentals remain solid, with a stable transition in management and a focus on risk control, maintaining a high provision coverage ratio [7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Chengdu Bank's revenue and net profit are projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of RMB 22,982 million in 2024 and RMB 24,311 million in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 5.89% and 5.78% respectively [4][19]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 12,858 million in 2024 and RMB 13,817 million in 2025, with growth rates of 10.17% and 7.46% respectively [4][19]. - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.66% for 2025 and 2026, indicating strong asset quality management [4][19]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.10 for 2025, with a corresponding target price of RMB 23.33, reflecting the bank's strong position in the industry [9]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 3.26, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.38 [19]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 4.99% in 2024 to 5.37% in 2025, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [8] Core Views - The domestic computing power is accelerating iteration and deployment, with a focus on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry chain, which is expected to drive demand growth in the data center industry chain and enhance order visibility [1][14] - The report highlights opportunities in various sub-industries, including lithium batteries and materials, industrial control, energy storage, photovoltaic, and wind power [2] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Insights - **New Energy Vehicles**: Positive outlook on lithium battery and material segments [2] - **Industrial Control**: Focus on the AIDC industry chain due to accelerated domestic computing power [2] - **Energy Storage**: Since 2025, over 208 GWh of energy storage orders have been signed for overseas markets, indicating strong potential for domestic companies [2][15] - **Photovoltaics**: Significant results from anti-involution policies, with continuous price increases in the industry chain [2][17] - **Wind Power**: Progress in multiple domestic offshore wind power projects [2][22] Key Companies and Developments - **GCL-Poly Energy**: Notable cost advantages in granular silicon, with a steady increase in market share [3][26] - **Sungrow Power Supply**: Maintains a leading position in the solar-storage sector, with accelerated AIDC layout [3][27] Recommended Companies - **GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK)**: Target price of 2.22, rated as "Buy" [10][25] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)**: Target price of 147.42, rated as "Buy" [10][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure performance was relatively stable. Tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth turned positive for the first time, possibly an early sign of improved economic vitality, but land transfer revenue still had a large drag, reflecting the inertia of the "old economy." The general budget target for this year is not difficult to achieve, while the government - funded budget may face a certain gap, but policy - based financial instruments may form a certain hedge [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Budget Revenue - **Overall Growth and Composition**: In August, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than July. Tax revenue increased by 3.4% (previous value 5.0%), and non - tax revenue's year - on - year decline narrowed from - 12.9% to - 3.8%. From January to August, tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 0.02%, the first positive growth this year, and non - tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.5% [1]. - **Total Progress and Regional Differences**: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was 0.3%, 0.1% higher than the annual budget target, and about 67% of the annual budget was completed, slightly faster than the same period last year. In August, the year - on - year growth of central and local fiscal revenues was both 2.0%, with a slight decline from the previous value. Considering the convergence of economic data in recent months, there may still be some pressure on revenue growth in the future [2]. 3.2 Tax Structure - **High - growth Taxes**: In August, value - added tax, personal income tax, and corporate income tax continued to grow rapidly. Value - added tax increased by 4.4% year - on - year, personal income tax and corporate income tax increased by 9.7% and 33.4% respectively, mainly related to strengthened tax supervision, active capital markets, and improved corporate profitability [3]. - **Slowing - growth Taxes**: The year - on - year growth rate of consumption tax slowed down to 0.9% (previous value 5.4%). Low consumer enthusiasm and high - base pressure in the fourth quarter may affect consumption tax revenue [3]. - **Declining Taxes**: The decline of real - estate - related taxes widened, with a 11.6% year - on - year decrease in August. Real - estate policies had limited impact on sales, and investment and construction indicators continued to decline [4]. - **Increasing Taxes**: The year - on - year growth of stamp duty further increased, with the year - on - year growth of stamp duty rising from 24% in July to 154%, and the year - on - year growth of securities trading stamp duty rising from 125% to 226%, due to the strong rise of the stock market [4]. 3.3 General Budget Expenditure - **Overall Growth**: In August, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous value of 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget target of 4.4% [5]. - **Expenditure Areas**: The main driving force was still people's livelihood expenditure, such as social security and employment, health, and education. Infrastructure - related expenditure was still weak, and the growth rate of generalized and narrow - sense infrastructure investment declined [5]. 3.4 Government - Funded Revenue - **Overall Growth**: In August, government - funded revenue decreased by 5.7% year - on - year, turning negative from positive. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth was - 1.4%, lower than the annual budget target of 0.7%. Land transfer revenue's cumulative year - on - year decline was 4.7% [6]. - **Completion Progress and Forecast**: By August, government - funded revenue had completed about 42% of the annual budget. Assuming the current real - estate demand trend continues, the annual revenue growth of the second - account budget is expected to be around - 5%, resulting in a revenue gap of 300 - 500 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Government - Funded Expenditure - **Growth and Reasons**: In August, government - funded expenditure increased by 19.8% year - on - year, still maintaining high growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 30.0%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The high - intensity expenditure was mainly due to the front - loaded issuance of local bonds and the injection of special treasury bonds [7]. - **Combined Fiscal Deficit**: The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first eight months was 6.7 trillion yuan, nearly 2 trillion yuan higher than the same period last year. After excluding the 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for capital injection, the broad - fiscal deficit was 6.2 trillion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2022 [7]. 3.6 Future Fiscal Concerns - **Rhythm**: In the third quarter, replacement bonds and special treasury bonds were completed successively. In the fourth quarter, government bond supply will enter a low - season, and the fiscal support for the economy will decline year - on - year, but there is still room for the expenditure of existing funds, mainly in the general budget [9]. - **Tools**: In August, core economic indicators weakened, and the market expected pro - growth policies. However, considering the small gap in the annual target, the possibility of additional fiscal deficits in the fourth quarter is low. Policy - based financial instruments are the core focus, and attention should also be paid to whether there is incremental support for implicit debt resolution [9]. - **Investment Direction**: This year, fiscal focus is not only on infrastructure, but also on child - rearing subsidies, urban renewal, consumer loan interest subsidies, and enterprise arrears. These will still be the focus of future efforts, and attention should be paid to whether there is incremental capital support [9].

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.0-4.25% and indicated an additional 50 basis points of cuts may occur within the year [2][3] - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, leading to a more dovish stance from the Fed [2][3] Precious Metals Industry - Following the Fed's rate cut, gold prices may face short-term pressure due to profit-taking, although the long-term investment value remains intact [3] - The Fed's continued path of rate cuts amidst economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns supports the long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against economic stagnation [3] ESG Investment Insights - ESG factors are increasingly influencing asset pricing, with improved disclosure rules in the A-share market leading to a rise in ESG report quality [4] - Empirical analysis shows that ESG factors have positive stock selection capabilities and are less correlated with traditional price-volume factors, indicating a growing pricing power for ESG in the A-share market [4] Japanese Gaming Industry - Japan's gaming industry, a pioneer with over 40 years of history, remains the third-largest market globally, with leading companies leveraging classic IPs to create resilient business models [5] - The success of Japanese gaming firms is attributed to their ability to diversify game distribution and localize operations, providing valuable lessons for Chinese companies looking to expand internationally [5] Company Spotlight: Shangmei Co., Ltd. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with continued expansion in product categories and brands expected to drive growth in the second half [7] - The company's operational capabilities in multi-brand and multi-category strategies have been validated, suggesting potential for further growth if these capabilities are replicated effectively [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction ESG Factor Construction and Analysis - **Factor Name**: "Final Holding of Invention Patent Quality Total Score" **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the quality of a company's innovation output, reflecting its technological barriers and commercialization potential, which can translate into future profitability and competitive advantages[38][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is derived from the total score of invention patent quality held by the company at the end of the period. It is categorized under the "business innovation" type of ESG factors[38] **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong positive stock selection ability, with high-quality patents receiving higher valuation premiums from the market[38][42] - **Factor Name**: "Wages, Bonuses, Allowances, and Subsidies" **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects a company's ability to attract and retain core talent through human capital investment, indirectly indicating employee satisfaction and productivity[39][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is based on the total expenditure on wages, bonuses, allowances, and subsidies, categorized under the "human capital" type of ESG factors[39] **Evaluation**: Companies with higher human capital investment tend to exhibit greater long-term operational stability and innovation potential[39][42] - **Factor Name**: "Equity Concentration Change Rate" **Construction Idea**: This factor captures changes in shareholder confidence, where increased concentration may indicate optimism or governance strengthening, while decreased concentration may signal disagreements or cash-out intentions[40][42] **Construction Process**: The factor measures the rate of change in equity concentration, categorized under the "shareholder" type of ESG factors[40] **Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into shareholder behavior and its implications for governance and company prospects[40][42] - **Factor Name**: "Average Age of Executives" **Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability and strategic maturity of the governance team, where younger teams may lean toward aggressive innovation, and older teams may favor steady operations[40][42] **Construction Process**: The factor calculates the average age of executives, categorized under the "governance structure" type of ESG factors[40] **Evaluation**: The factor reflects investor perceptions of decision-making reliability and governance stability[40][42] - **Factor Name**: "Total Amount of External Donations" **Construction Idea**: This factor highlights a company's commitment to social responsibility and brand image building, which can enhance trust and stakeholder relationships[41][42] **Construction Process**: The factor is based on the total monetary value of external donations, categorized under the "social capital" type of ESG factors[41] **Evaluation**: Companies with consistent and generous donations may reduce operational risks and gain potential policy support[41][42] ESG Composite Factor Construction - **Construction Idea**: The top 10/20/30 ESG factors with the highest RankIC averages are selected and combined using equal weighting or classification-based weighting methods[55] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Equal Weighting**: All selected factors are equally weighted to form the composite factor 2. **Classification Weighting**: Factors within the same secondary indicator category are first equally weighted, and then the resulting category-level factors are equally weighted to form the composite factor[55] - **Evaluation**: The composite factors exhibit robust stock selection effectiveness, with high ESG-scoring portfolios consistently outperforming low-scoring ones. The results are stable across different weighting methods[55][59] --- Backtesting Results of Factors Single Factor Backtesting Results - **"Final Holding of Invention Patent Quality Total Score"**: - RankIC Mean: 5.60% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 6.23% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -7.91% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 16.80% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 19.55%[42] - **"Wages, Bonuses, Allowances, and Subsidies"**: - RankIC Mean: 4.27% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 4.12% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -6.98% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 19.45% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 21.80%[42] - **"Equity Concentration Change Rate"**: - RankIC Mean: 2.88% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 2.18% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -4.82% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 68.05% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 62.90%[42] - **"Average Age of Executives"**: - RankIC Mean: 2.01% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 2.16% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -2.20% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 16.06% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 17.00%[42] - **"Total Amount of External Donations"**: - RankIC Mean: 1.83% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 1.17% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -0.56% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 21.33% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 22.50%[42] Composite Factor Backtesting Results - **Top 30 Equal Weight Composite Factor**: - RankIC Mean: 5.23% - Annualized Excess Return (Long Portfolio): 4.97% - Annualized Excess Return (Short Portfolio): -7.38% - Turnover Rate (Long Portfolio): 21.72% - Turnover Rate (Short Portfolio): 26.31%[55] --- Index Enhancement Strategy Results CSI 300 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 5.75% - Information Ratio (IR): 0.76 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 14.78%[62][65] CSI 500 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 9.11% - Information Ratio (IR): 1.68 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 9.24%[67][70] CSI 1000 Index Enhancement - Annualized Excess Return: 8.43% - Information Ratio (IR): 1.50 - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 8.47%[73][75]

Group 1: FOMC Statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) - The Fed held its September FOMC meeting and cut the federal funds rate by 25bp as expected, lowering the target range to 4.0 - 4.25%. The statement emphasized rising downside risks in the job market [1]. - The dot - plot shows that most officials think there should be another 50bp cut in 2025, an increase from the June dot - plot. Among 19 officials, views on further rate adjustments vary [2]. - The Fed kept its employment and inflation expectations for the year largely unchanged compared to June but slightly raised the GDP forecast and believes in more significant rate cuts, possibly due to "political pressure." Tariffs' impact on inflation is slow and limited, and the labor market shows "low firing, low hiring" characteristics [3]. - In terms of economic indicators, GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were slightly raised; unemployment rate expectations changed little; core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were adjusted up; and interest rate expectations were significantly lowered [3][4]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Powell affirmed the Fed's commitment to independence and provided three ways for the public to judge that Fed decisions are based on economic prospects: policy communication logic, officials' speech content, and actual decision - making matching economic conditions [5]. - He said that the impact of tariffs on inflation has emerged and is expected to accumulate. The main reason for changes in the labor market is the significant decline in labor supply due to reduced immigration [5]. - Regarding noisy employment data, Powell said the downward revision was in line with expectations, and the data would become more reliable over time, sufficient for policy - making. The Fed also called for more resources for data collection [6][7]. Group 3: Market Performance - Most assets had priced in the rate cut, and after the meeting, some funds took profits. At the close, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields rose, international precious metal futures fell, the US dollar index rose, and US stocks had mixed results. The OIS market priced in about 44.9bp of further rate cuts in 2025 [10]. Group 4: Follow - up Policy - The Fed's policy focus has shifted to the job market. It is expected that the probability of two rate cuts this year is higher than one, and the rate cut amplitude in 2026 is still uncertain [11]. - Milan's voting behavior may challenge the Fed's independence, and Trump may value the "loyalty" of the next Fed chair. Milan's probability of being nominated for the next Fed chair increased after the meeting [12]. - Considering the potential increase in Trump's influence on the Fed after Powell's departure in 2026, the 2026 interest - rate path may face more downward risks [12]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Outlook - For US Treasuries, short - and long - term yields are at low levels, and the curve may steepen further. It is recommended to take short - term profits on US Treasuries, especially long - term ones, and consider switching to TIPS to avoid inflation risks [13]. - For US stocks, there may be short - term technical adjustments, but in the long - term, the Fed's dovish stance and AI narrative are positive. AI - related sectors and interest - sensitive sectors may perform well [14]. - The US dollar may continue to weaken. Gold's pricing of falling US Treasury yields may be sufficient, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies may rise, and Hong Kong stocks, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index, may perform better [14].