7 月 FOMC：降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨，美联储公布 7 月议息结果，联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾，本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息，对利率决议投反对票，是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来，鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温，两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击，且就业市场有走弱风险，建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多，历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近（加息或降 息），因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号，关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温，关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限，且经济稳定降温的格局，二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%，但主要是关税抢进口停止后，净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致，2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term impacts from centralized procurement, but sales are anticipated to improve post-implementation. The net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between -77 million and -66 million yuan, primarily due to delayed procurement timelines and price reductions on core products, leading to a 57% decline in revenue and a 64% drop in gross profit year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has made significant progress in the development of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with a key milestone achieved in the clinical trial of Qingjiang Hewei Granules, which targets a complex syndrome of non-erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease [5]. - The company holds a 17.0211% stake in Zhejiang Tereis, which is developing a first-in-class ADC product, TRS005, showing promising clinical results for treating relapsed or refractory CD20-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to see a revenue decline in 2025, with projections of 1.984 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 2.823 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.066 billion yuan in 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.54 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 185.9, 24.8, and 23 respectively [8][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s core products are expected to regain sales momentum following the implementation of centralized procurement, which is anticipated to positively impact revenue in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - The innovative drug development and the ADC platform are seen as potential growth drivers for the company, with the ADC product expected to receive regulatory approval in 2024 [6][8]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite short-term challenges due to procurement policies, the company’s innovative drug pipeline and strategic partnerships could lead to significant growth in the coming years, justifying the "Buy" rating [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][12] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the PCB sector, particularly in automotive applications, with significant growth potential in AI servers and humanoid robots [10][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.022 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 11.13% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 675 million yuan, up 36.17% [5] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of electric vehicles and AI technologies, with a projected revenue increase to 6.378 billion yuan in 2025 and 9.567 billion yuan in 2026 [12][14] Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.13%, and a net profit of 6.75 billion yuan, up 36.17% [5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.17 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.33% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, which is a 65.61% increase [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has deepened its focus on automotive PCBs while actively expanding into emerging fields such as AI servers and humanoid robots [10] - The company has established a strong supply chain relationship with major clients, successfully entering the Dojo supply chain and securing projects with European AI supercomputing clients [11] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 63.78 billion yuan in 2025, 95.67 billion yuan in 2026, and 115.76 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.24, 2.07, and 2.63 yuan [12][14] - The report anticipates a significant growth rate in revenue, with a forecasted increase of 27.0% in 2025 and 50.0% in 2026 [14]

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 64, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][11][23] Market Trends - The report highlights the recent performance of the CSI 300 index, which has shown fluctuations over the past year, indicating a volatile market environment [4] - The market sentiment temperature indicator suggests that when the sentiment score is below or around 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [11] Hot Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: The "2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference" is set to take place from July 26 to 29 in Shanghai, attracting over a thousand guests from government, business, and academia. Key companies in this sector include Zhongke Shuguang (603019) and 360 (601360) [7] - **RDA (Real Data Assets)**: The Shanghai Data Exchange has introduced the RDA paradigm, emphasizing the integration of data with physical assets. This concept aims to enhance the authenticity and value of data in asset verification and financing. Related companies include Tongxingbao (301339) and Wanda Information (300168) [7] - **Hydropower**: The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is noted for its strategic significance. The project includes the construction of five hydropower stations and is expected to have a substantial impact on the region [7] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of capital, with Yingweike (002837.SZ) leading at approximately 866.94 million yuan, followed by C Hangu (001221.SZ) at 510.28 million yuan [12] - It also details the top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing, with WuXi AppTec (603259.SH) at 447.08 million yuan and CATL (300750.SZ) at 437.09 million yuan [14] - Conversely, the report identifies the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow, with CATL (300750.SZ) showing a significant outflow of approximately 1.29 billion yuan [15] Industry Insights - The report provides insights into the performance of various industries, highlighting that the electronics sector saw a net buy of approximately 139.12 million yuan, while the basic chemical sector experienced a net outflow of around 263.72 million yuan [21][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 31.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.869 billion yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [5] - The main mining operations showed strong performance, with copper production reaching 91,800 tons, a 7.65% increase year-on-year, and completion rates exceeding 100% for various minerals [5] - The profitability of the core subsidiary, Yulong Copper, significantly contributed to the overall profit growth, achieving a net profit of 3.491 billion yuan, with the company's share contributing 2.025 billion yuan, a 21.5% increase year-on-year [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 31.619 billion yuan, a 26.59% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.35% growth [5] - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 58.085 billion, 60.872 billion, and 63.718 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 3.826 billion, 4.125 billion, and 4.443 billion yuan [8][12] Production and Mining Operations - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 91,800 tons of copper, with a completion rate of 114%, and significant increases in zinc, lead, and molybdenum production [5] - The recovery rates for copper and molybdenum at Yulong Copper Mine improved significantly, contributing to enhanced production efficiency [5] Profitability and Forecast - The report indicates that the growth in copper production and prices (up 11%) has driven profitability, with Yulong Copper being a key profit contributor [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the company is projected to be 10.8, 10.0, and 9.3 for the years 2025 to 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7]. Core Insights - The company focuses on precision plastic manufacturing, primarily in the automotive and electrical appliance sectors, with a strategic emphasis on automotive electronic components and lightweight structural parts [5][6]. - Future developments will target lightweight components such as functional door panels and electronic cooling fans, as well as integrated electronic products for new energy vehicles [5]. - The company has completed construction of its production base in Thailand and aims to secure more overseas orders [5]. - The company has a stake in Wuhan Fei'en Microelectronics, which specializes in MEMS sensor development, indicating a strategic move into the robotics market [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 15.87 billion, 19.20 billion, and 21.58 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.82, and 0.97 yuan [7][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in precision plastic manufacturing with capabilities in precision molds, injection molding, stamping, and assembly [5]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from trends in lightweight automotive components and the growing demand for automotive electronics, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.87 billion yuan in 2025 to 21.58 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.3% [10]. - The projected EPS growth reflects a positive outlook, with estimates of 0.69 yuan in 2025 and 0.97 yuan in 2027 [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the robotics sector through its partnership with Wuhan Fei'en Microelectronics, focusing on lightweight materials and advanced sensor technologies [6].

Economic Outlook - The economic operation still faces significant risks and challenges, emphasizing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking[1] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, requiring only a 4.7% growth in the second half to achieve the annual target of around 5%[1] - The third quarter is identified as a crucial observation window for economic performance[1] Policy Direction - Macro policies are expected to continue to exert force and may intensify around September, with a focus on preparing for the upcoming Central Committee meeting[1] - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with structural tools introduced to support small and micro enterprises[2] - Fiscal policy is set to be "more proactive," with over half of the special bonds yet to be issued, as of June 30, 2025, the issuance progress was only 49%[2] Consumption and Industry - The potential for domestic demand needs to be released, with service consumption being key in the second half of the year[2] - The first two batches of funds for replacing old consumer goods totaled 162 billion yuan, with the third batch of 69 billion yuan already allocated[2] - The focus will be on emerging industries and supply-demand rebalancing, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military aviation[2] Capital Market - The capital market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a "slow bull" market pattern confirmed[7] - A-shares have demonstrated resilience, supported by state intervention and external factors such as a weak dollar and supply-demand rebalancing[7] - The market is expected to consolidate in August, with more favorable conditions anticipated around September following tariff and earnings reports[7]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong market sentiment with a score of 78, categorized as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive outlook for the market [2][6][11] Market Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence Theme**: The "2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference" is set to take place from July 26 to 29 in Shanghai, focusing on cutting-edge AI technologies and applications. Key companies involved include Zhongke Shuguang (603019) and 360 (601360) [7] - **RDA Theme**: The introduction of the RDA (Real Data Asset) paradigm by the Shanghai Data Exchange emphasizes the integration of data with physical assets, enhancing authenticity and value. Related companies include Tongxingbao (301339) and Wanda Information (300168) [7] - **Hydropower Theme**: The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is highlighted as a significant strategic initiative. Key companies involved are Dongfang Electric (600875) and Tibet Tianlu (600326) [7] Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with significant net inflows, with New Yisheng (300502) leading at 127.71 million yuan, followed by Yunnan Zhiye (002428) at 56.46 million yuan [12] - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include New Yisheng (300502) at 114.00 million yuan and Cambricon Technologies (688256) at 77.97 million yuan [14] Industry Analysis - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, with the pharmaceutical and banking sectors showing positive net inflows, while industries like machinery and electronics are experiencing significant outflows [17][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [8][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in humanoid robots, particularly the Optimus V3 design by Tesla, which is expected to begin mass production in early 2026. This development is anticipated to catalyze growth in the robotics sector [5][44]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commercialization of intelligent connected vehicles, with eight companies receiving demonstration operation licenses in Shanghai, indicating a rapid acceleration in the deployment of autonomous driving technologies [7][44]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a structural shift, with traditional fuel vehicle production facing challenges while the demand for electric and intelligent vehicles continues to rise [36][44]. Market Performance - The automotive index increased by 1.2%, lagging behind the broader market, which rose by 1.7% [15][24]. - The performance of various segments within the automotive industry showed positive trends, with passenger vehicles up by 2.3% and commercial vehicles by 1.8% [16][24]. Industry Data Tracking - In July, the average daily retail of passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year increase of 11%, with total retail reaching 1.188 million units, also reflecting a growth of 11% year-to-date [35][37]. - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale figures, with a year-on-year growth of 22% in July, totaling 1.424 million units [37]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several companies based on their potential in the humanoid robot sector and automotive components, including: - Dual Lin Co., Ltd. (双林股份) [46] - Redick (雷迪克) [46] - Jianghuai Automobile (江淮汽车) [46] - Seres (赛力斯) [46] - North Special Technology (北特科技) [46] - New Spring Co., Ltd. (新泉股份) [46] - Rongtai Co., Ltd. (嵘泰股份) [46] - Kaite Co., Ltd. (开特股份) [46] - Jun Chuang Technology (骏创科技) [46] - Easy Precision (易实精密) [46]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the coal industry with a "Recommended" investment rating, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Datong Energy [7]. Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a new round of value reassessment due to an expanding supply-demand gap, which is likely to push coal prices upward [7][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with significant contributions from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, while Shanxi faces production declines due to regulatory constraints [3][4]. - The demand for coal remains relatively rigid, primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for 55% of total coal consumption, alongside strong growth in chemical industry demand [4][6]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.76 billion tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, significantly lower than the five-year compound growth rate of 4.36% [3]. - Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are the main contributors to production increases, with expected increments of 8.1 million tons and 6.6 million tons respectively in 2024 [3][32]. - Shanxi's coal production is expected to decline by 6.9% in 2024 due to regulatory measures aimed at controlling overproduction [3][43]. Demand Side Summary - Total coal consumption in China is forecasted to reach 4.84 billion tons in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, with the power sector's coal usage increasing by 2.64% to 2.65 billion tons [4][6]. - The chemical sector shows robust growth in coal demand, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%, while the construction materials sector is expected to see a decline of 5.05% [4][6]. - Coal exports are anticipated to rise significantly, with a projected increase of 49.1% year-on-year, reaching 6.66 million tons in 2024 [4]. Supply-Demand Outlook - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen over the next few years, with projected deficits of 0.63 million tons in 2025, 1.50 million tons in 2026, and 2.29 million tons in 2027 [6]. - Coal prices are likely to rise as domestic production growth is constrained by regulatory measures and the dual carbon goals of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality [6][7]. Company Focus and Profit Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with China Shenhua rated as "Buy" and others currently un-rated [9].