证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 21 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 4 月社零整体同增 5.1%。4 月社会消费品零售总额为 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%。 除汽车外社会消费品零售总额为 33548 亿元，同比增长 5.6%。分区域来看，4 月城 镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 32376/4798 亿元，分别同比+5.2%/+4.7%。 联系人 分消费类型看，餐饮零售额增速略快于商品。4 月限额以上单位消费品零售额为 14992 亿元，同比增长 6.3%。分类型来看，4 月限额以上商品零售/餐饮收入总额分 别为 13762/1230 亿元，同比+6.6%/+3.7%；4 月商品零售/餐饮收入总额分别为 33007/4167 亿元，同比+5.1%/+5.2%。 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 4 月社零数据点评 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 21 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 方皓 fanghao@huayuanstock.com 铜：铜价上行，铜板块盈利大幅增长。1)价格：在矿端紧缺及美联储降息周期启动等宏观驱动 下，铜价在 2024 年和 2025Q1 持续上涨。2024 年铜平均价格为 7.5 万元/吨，同比上涨 10.5%。 2025Q1 均价 7.7 万元/吨，同比上涨 11.5%，环比上涨 2.7%。2）盈利：2024 年和 2025Q1 铜板块公司盈利同比大幅增长，盈利能力提升费用率下降。2024 年铜矿板块公司实现营收 1.45 万亿元，同比增长 7.4%，实现归母净利润 616 亿元，同比增 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 21 日 "科创债"新政首周，有何特征？ ——信用债热点事件系列 投资要点： 联系人 事件：2025 年 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技 创新债券有关事宜的公告》（以下简称"《8 号文》"），从丰富科技创新债券产品 体系和完善科技创新债券配套支持机制等方面，对支持科技创新债券发行提出多项 重要举措。同日，沪深北三大交易所同步配发《关于进一步支持发行科技创新债券 服务新质生产力的通知》，交易商协会发布《关于推出科技创新债券 构建债市"科 技板"的通知》，进一步提出细化支持措施。 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 2025 年 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有 关事宜的公告》（以下简称"《8 号文》"），从丰富科技创新债券产品体系和完善科技创 新债券配套支持机制等方面，对支持科技创新债券发行提出多项重要举措 ...

Investment Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook on risk assets following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, emphasizing the importance of US Treasury liquidity in the upcoming months [2][9] - The coal industry narrative is shifting from "elasticity" to "duration," with companies like Shaanxi Coal outperforming others due to lower extraction costs and stable performance [11][12] - The report indicates that the valuation gap between Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua is expected to narrow as the market recognizes the long-term value of low-cost coal producers [13][14] Company Summaries Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - The company is transitioning from an "elasticity narrative" to a "duration narrative," with a significant performance gap observed in 2024 compared to China Shenhua [11][12] - Shaanxi Coal's extraction costs position it favorably within the industry cost curve, enhancing its long-term investment value [12][13] - The projected net profits for Shaanxi Coal from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 190.2 billion, 199.3 billion, and 210.0 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.3, 9.8, and 9.3 [14] Jiyuan Precision (836720.BJ) - The company focuses on high-precision zinc-aluminum alloy die-casting products, with a projected net profit of 56.75 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.63% [16][21] - Jiyuan Precision is expanding its international presence through acquisitions, including the purchase of German company Dico to develop the European market [20][21] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for lightweight components in the electric vehicle sector, with significant revenue growth expected in automotive parts [17][21]

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 20 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 重点关注基建央企，相对沪深 300 低配 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20250512-20250518） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，推动行业回归"重回报"本质。2025 年 5 月 7 日，中国证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，围绕优化收费机 制、强化利益绑定、提升行业服务能力、促进长期投资稳定性和强化监管等六大方向提出 25 条具体举措，旨在推动行业从"重规模"向"重回报"转变。方案明确提出， ...

证券研究报告 煤炭 | 煤炭开采 非金融|首次覆盖报告 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2025 | 年 | | | 日 | | | 月 | 19 | 05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 20.20 | | | | | | | | | 年 最 最 | 低 | 高 | / | | | 29.87/18.59 | | | | 内 | | | | 一 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 195,839.00 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 195,839.00 | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 9,695.00 | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | 41.80 | | | ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 20 日 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,412 | 3,509 | 3,506 | 3,591 | 3,672 | | 同比增长率（%） | -1.12% | 2.87% | -0.11% | 2.44% | 2.25% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 859 | 659 | 817 | 853 | 874 | | 同比增长率（%） | -9.00% | -23.29% | 24.00% | 4.43% | 2.43% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.39 | | ROE（%） | 7.78% | 6.11% | 7.30% | 7.34% | 7.25% | | 市盈率（P/E） | 16.12 | 21.01 | 16.95 | 16.23 | 15 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The decline in coal prices is expected to improve the company's performance, while long-term factors will determine its investment value [6] - The company reported a decrease in revenue but an increase in net profit in Q1 2025, indicating resilience amid market challenges [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing transition in the energy market, with a focus on both coal and renewable energy sources [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 60.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.70%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.973 billion yuan, an increase of 8.19% [8] - The company's coal power segment saw a profit increase of 40.96% year-on-year, driven by falling coal prices [8] - The company’s revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show fluctuations, with expected revenues of 254.397 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 242.266 billion yuan in 2025, and then slightly increasing to 244.067 billion yuan in 2027 [7] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 110 billion yuan, 117 billion yuan, and 126 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.38% in 2024 to 8.12% in 2027 [7] - The average settlement price for electricity in Q1 2025 was 488.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year [8]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 19 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，对风险资产继续谨慎 投资要点： 风险提示：大模型技术发展不及预期、PC/手机等终端需求复苏不及预期、美国联邦基金利率剧烈波动。 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/5/12-25/5/16） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周 Coreweave 发布 1Q25 财报，Q1 营收同比大增 420%，超出市场预期。Q1 收入达到 9.82 亿美元， 同比增长 420%，Q2 营收指引为 10.6-11 亿美元，2025 年全年收入指引为 49-51 亿美元，超出市场预期。在 手订单方面，公司披露截至季度末在手订单达 259 亿美元，其 ...

Investment Insights - The pharmaceutical sector shows positive momentum with a 1.27% increase in the pharmaceutical index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16% [3][6] - Long-term growth potential is highlighted for Changchun High-tech, which has maintained a revenue scale above 10 billion despite industry pressures [8][9] - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs and companies with low valuations, such as Changchun High-tech and Kunming Pharmaceutical [11] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical index saw 345 stocks rise and 138 fall, with notable gainers including Tuoxin Pharmaceutical (+45.03%) and Yong'an Pharmaceutical (+32.05%) [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, with significant R&D investments expected to yield results [9][10] - Key recommended stocks include Xintai, Yipin Hong, and Huana Pharmaceutical, among others [11] Media and Internet Sector - The media sector is experiencing a shift with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba revealing stable core business performance while integrating AI into their operations [13][14] - The report highlights the expansion of IP and trendy toy companies, suggesting a focus on high-growth areas such as card games and collectibles [15] - The overall media industry remains in a phase of adjustment, with recommendations to continue exploring new channels and content [22] Agriculture and Livestock Sector - The report indicates a weak trend in pig prices, with current prices at 14.58 RMB/kg, and a cautious sentiment in the market [23][24] - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil is expected to boost domestic chicken prices, with current prices showing signs of recovery [25] - The focus is on high-quality livestock breeding companies, with recommendations for leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [24][32] Metals and New Materials Sector - The aluminum market is experiencing price increases due to supply-side factors and the easing of US-China tariffs, with prices expected to rebound to around 20,500-21,000 RMB/ton [4] - The report notes that copper prices are expected to remain stable, influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade negotiations [4] Public Utilities and Environmental Sector - The report suggests increasing allocations to public utilities and power equipment, with improvements in energy storage profitability expected [5] - The energy sector is poised to benefit from new regulations and a stable profit model for grid companies [5] North Exchange Sector - The electrolyte beverage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by an increase in sports participation rates in China [35] - Companies like Kangbiter are highlighted for their innovative products in the electrolyte drink segment, which is expected to see substantial growth [35]