Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic probiotic brand, benefiting from both category penetration and domestic substitution opportunities [5][7] - The Chinese probiotic market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately 138 billion RMB in 2024, driven by health consumption trends and expanding application scenarios [7] - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of high-end strains held by foreign companies and is expanding its downstream coverage in sectors such as food and beverages, health products, etc. [7] - The recent FDA GRAS certification for the company's star strain opens up new market opportunities, particularly in the weight loss sector [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 299 million RMB - 2024: 303 million RMB - 2025E: 439 million RMB - 2026E: 551 million RMB - 2027E: 691 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 1.19% in 2024, 44.85% in 2025, 25.65% in 2026, and 25.36% in 2027 [6][8] - The projected net profit for the company is as follows: - 2023: 93 million RMB - 2024: 94 million RMB - 2025E: 128 million RMB - 2026E: 168 million RMB - 2027E: 210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 0.94% in 2024, 35.90% in 2025, 31.35% in 2026, and 24.48% in 2027 [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are as follows: - 2025E: 34.93 - 2026E: 26.60 - 2027E: 21.37 [6][8] - The average P/E of comparable companies is estimated at 35X for 2025, indicating a favorable growth outlook for the company [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and dividend returns [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business and enhancing its dividend policy, which reflects its growth potential and commitment to shareholder returns [5][9]. - The company has a strong market position in the high-end curtain wall and interior decoration sectors, with a robust cash flow supporting high dividend payouts [6][9]. - The report highlights the company's strategic shift towards productization and international expansion, which is expected to drive future growth [9][52]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 23.79 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.19% [5][56]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 683 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.06% [5][56]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with an expected dividend yield of 7.00% for 2024, positioning it favorably within the industry [6][37]. Market Position - The company has a market share of 1.63% in the decoration industry as of 2024, indicating a steady increase over the past two years [9][44]. - The company has secured new orders totaling RMB 270.49 billion in 2024, marking a 4.68% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [9][48]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a productization strategy, focusing on customized sales of atypical photovoltaic components and standardized curtain wall products for international markets [9][52]. - The overseas market has become a significant growth driver, with new orders from international markets increasing by 57% in 2024, accounting for 28% of total orders [9][48]. Cash Flow and Profitability - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 16.26 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [6][33]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 16.04%, with expectations for gradual improvement in profitability due to strategic initiatives [55][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the functional beverage industry, showing rapid growth in its fundamentals. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [6] - The product structure is diversifying, with revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages in the first half of 2025 reaching 8.361 billion yuan, 1.493 billion yuan, and 877 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.91%, 213.71%, and 66.24% [6] - The company is expanding its energy drink business and the second growth curve "Bushi La" is accelerating. The energy drink segment achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [6] - The digital management system is a core driver of the company's continuous growth, with a comprehensive digital operation system covering the entire product lifecycle [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.34 billion yuan, 5.65 billion yuan, and 7.024 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.46%, 30.19%, and 24.32% [6] Financial Summary - As of July 31, 2025, the company's closing price is 281.30 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 146,279.66 million yuan and a total share capital of 520.01 million shares [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 61.86%, and the net asset per share is 16.80 yuan [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 20.886 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.86% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.70 [7]

Group 1: Utilities - Recommended stock: Su Yan Jing Shen (603299.SH) due to its stable cash flow from traditional salt and salt chemical businesses, and the potential growth from gas storage projects [3][4] - The company is expected to enter a performance release period with the first phase of the gas storage project nearing production [4] Group 2: Pharmaceuticals - Recommended stock: Ang Li Kang (002940.SZ) as the impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and new products are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - The introduction of ALK-N001, a promising anti-tumor candidate, is anticipated to enhance the company's innovation capabilities [4] Group 3: Media - Recommended stock: Alibaba-W (09988.HK) with a focus on the stabilization of traditional e-commerce and the potential for growth in the instant retail sector [5] - Alibaba Cloud's leading position in the domestic market and continuous revenue growth are highlighted [5] Group 4: Electronics - Recommended stock: Zhong Wei Company (688012.SH) due to its robust order backlog and continuous revenue growth driven by new product launches [6] Group 5: Non-Banking Financials - Recommended stock: China Life (601628.SH) for its excellent asset-liability matching and early transformation in dividend insurance sales [8] - The company is expected to release significant solvency capacity following asset reclassification [8] Group 6: Automotive - Recommended stock: Li Auto (02015.HK) as the company is positioned to leverage its strategic foresight and adaptability in the evolving automotive landscape [9] - The i-series is expected to maintain strong sales momentum, with the first model projected to achieve over 5,000 monthly sales [9] Group 7: Transportation - Recommended stock: YTO Express (600233.SH) with a leading growth rate in business volume, benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [10] Group 8: Agriculture - Recommended stock: De Kang Agriculture (02419.HK) as it is positioned at a pivotal point in the agricultural sector, leveraging technology and innovative models for growth [12] - The company's platform strategy is expected to extend into other agricultural segments, enhancing its market presence [12] Group 9: Metals and New Materials - Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) with a strong performance in the first quarter, exceeding expectations [14] Group 10: North Exchange - Recommended stock: Yuan Hang Precision (833914.BJ) as a leading player in the domestic nickel-based conductor materials sector, benefiting from stable demand across multiple industries [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the salt chemical industry in East China, focusing on "salt + energy storage," with low debt and stable cash flow [5] - The core business includes salt and salt chemical products, contributing 85% of revenue gross profit, benefiting from stable product pricing and declining coal prices [5] - The company is actively developing salt cavern storage for natural gas and compressed air, which are expected to significantly contribute to performance in the next five years [5][6] - The company plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2030, with a projected total capacity of 12 million tons for salt and salt chemical products [5] - The company is also expanding into compressed air energy storage and small molecule gas storage projects, enhancing its growth potential [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of July 31, 2025, is 10.48 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8,191.78 million yuan [3] Financial Data - The company has a total share capital of 781.66 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.23% [3] - The net asset value per share is 7.97 yuan [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are 5,682 million, 5,344 million, 5,560 million, 6,728 million, and 7,727 million yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 4.03% in 2025 [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 738 million, 769 million, 705 million, 917 million, and 1,130 million yuan from 2023 to 2027, with a significant increase expected in 2026 and 2027 [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 11.09 in 2023 to 7.25 in 2027, indicating potential for valuation growth [7] Business Development - The company is planning to invest up to 1.8 billion yuan in developing a brine salt project, which is expected to increase solid salt production by 3 million tons per year [5] - The company is also pursuing partnerships for compressed air energy storage and small molecule gas storage projects, indicating a strategic expansion into new business areas [8]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Analysis - The report highlights that during the period from July 21 to July 25, the benchmark credit bond ETFs and the Sci-Tech bond ETFs experienced significant pressure and adjustments, influenced by strong performances in equity and commodity markets [2][5] - There was a notable outflow of funds from the benchmark credit bond ETFs, with a record single-day outflow of 2.52 billion yuan on July 24, marking the largest outflow since their inception [6][8] - The report suggests that the current discount in the secondary market may present a temporary trading opportunity for credit bond ETFs, especially if market sentiment improves and the premium/discount rate returns to its mean [8][6] Group 2: Uranium Industry Insights - The report discusses the strategic re-evaluation of uranium enrichment in the context of global energy transition and nuclear power revival, positioning uranium enrichment as a key midstream segment in the nuclear fuel cycle [10][11] - The global uranium enrichment market is characterized by high concentration, with geopolitical shifts creating structural opportunities, particularly for non-Russian suppliers like Urenco and Orano, as demand for non-Russian enrichment capabilities rises [11][12] - The report identifies Centrus Energy as a core beneficiary in the U.S. domestic enrichment supply chain reconstruction, supported by government funding and contracts aimed at enhancing domestic capabilities [13][12] Group 3: Pumped Storage and Energy Storage Development - Pumped storage is recognized as a mature energy storage technology, with significant development prior to the dual carbon strategy, and recent statistics indicate that approved pumped storage capacity in China reached 170 GW over the years 2022 to 2024 [16][15] - The report emphasizes the transition of pumped storage pricing mechanisms towards a capacity market, which may influence future development directions [16][15] - The report anticipates that energy storage will increasingly rely on market arbitrage for revenue generation, particularly as the frequency regulation market aligns with the spot market, presenting new revenue opportunities for electrochemical storage [17][16]

1. Report industry investment rating - This report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The secondary market discount may lead to a temporary increase in the cost - effectiveness of credit bond ETFs. If the trading sentiment recovers in the future and the ETF premium - discount rate reverts to the central level, it may drive the ETF price to recover. It is recommended to moderately focus on the temporary trading opportunities brought by credit bond ETFs entering the discount range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit bond ETF performance - From July 21 to July 25, affected by the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, the benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were under pressure. The net worth and closing prices of 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and 10 science - innovation bond ETFs declined for 4 consecutive days from July 21 to July 24 and showed differentiation on July 25. As of July 25, 2025, the closing prices of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs fell below 100 yuan, with cumulative declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.57% since listing; the closing prices of 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs also fell below 101 yuan, with declines ranging from 0.45% to 0.66% from July 17 to July 25. On July 28, the net worth of both types of ETFs recovered slightly [5] - Since the listing of science - innovation bond ETFs on July 17, the net capital inflow has rapidly declined. From July 23 to July 25, the benchmark - made credit bond ETFs saw a large - scale capital outflow. On July 24, the single - day net outflow of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs reached 2.52 billion yuan, the largest since the beginning of this year. More than half of the science - innovation bond ETFs had a small net capital outflow on July 24, just one week after listing [4][6] 3.2 How to view the discount trading opportunities of credit bond ETFs - Credit bond ETFs can be traded in the secondary market. Currently, 8 benchmark - made credit bond ETFs use physical subscription and redemption methods, and only 3 out of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs use cash subscription and redemption methods [12] - In the physical subscription and redemption model, investors are more likely to sell credit bond ETFs in the secondary market during market adjustments, which may lead to short - term discounts. After a short - term discount occurs, there are two possible directions: the market continues to adjust and the discount deepens, or the premium - discount rate reverts to the central level due to arbitrage activities [13] - Regarding the influencing factors, from July 17 to July 25, the valuation adjustments of the underlying component bonds of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs were not significantly different from those of non - component bonds, and no additional factors causing excessive valuation adjustments were observed [14] - From July 21 to July 25, the discount of benchmark - made credit bond ETFs deepened, and science - innovation bond ETFs gradually turned to a discount state. As of July 24, the discount of 8 credit bond ETFs ranged from 25 to 47 BP, significantly higher than the historical average; as of July 25, the discount of science - innovation bond ETFs ranged from 8 to 25 BP [17][18] - Although both types of ETFs are in the discount range, the trading sentiment may recover in the future, pulling the premium - discount rate back to the central level. The discount may bring a temporary increase in cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities [19]

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a leading growth rate in parcel volume, with the potential for improved profitability due to anti-competitive measures [5][6] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit forecasts show a positive trend, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][6] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 57,684 million RMB - 2024: 69,033 million RMB (19.67% YoY growth) - 2025E: 79,932 million RMB (15.79% YoY growth) - 2026E: 91,782 million RMB (14.83% YoY growth) - 2027E: 103,561 million RMB (12.83% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: 3,723 million RMB - 2024: 4,012 million RMB (7.78% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4,074 million RMB (1.54% YoY growth) - 2026E: 5,081 million RMB (24.72% YoY growth) - 2027E: 6,047 million RMB (19.01% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.09 RMB - 2024: 1.17 RMB - 2025E: 1.19 RMB - 2026E: 1.49 RMB - 2027E: 1.77 RMB [5][7] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are projected at 12.59, 10.10, and 8.48 respectively [5][8] Market Performance - As of July 29, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 15.00 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 51,303.39 million RMB [3][4]