固定收益 4 月固定收益月报 外部冲击超预期，利率有望下行 2025 年 5 月 26 日 固定收益研究/定期报告 震荡调整结束，债市仍有上涨空间-3 月 固定收益月报 2025.4.7 资金面边际转松，利率有望修复下行-2 月固定收益月报 2025.3.7 中短端修复可期，长端待政策指引-1 月 固定收益月报 2025.2.11 王冠军 执业登记编码：S0760524040001 邮箱：wangguanjun@sxzq.com 王纯 邮箱：wangchun1@sxzq.com 投资要点： 相关报告： 观点展望 4 月初，特朗普政府的关税政策大超市场预期，债市收益率再次冲击前低。 虽然后续特朗普政府在关税政策方面有让步的迹象，但中国面临的外部不 确定性仍然较大，反应在债市上体现为市场利率低位震荡。 山证固定收益团队 分析师： 从国内政策面上看，4 月 25 日中央政治局召开分析研究当前经济形式和经 济工作的会议，会议强调"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，同时指出 将在未来择机降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。从政策取 向上来看，货币政策将继续维持宽松，以配合支持创新、扩大消费等政策。 从资金面上看 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 5 月 26 日 星期一 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,348.37 | -0.94 | | 深证成指 | 10,132.41 | -0.85 | | 沪深 300 | 3,882.27 | -0.81 | | 中小板指 | 6,376.77 | -0.42 | | 创业板指 | 2,021.50 | -1.18 | | 科创 50 | 980.58 | -1.02 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250512-20250518）-——中美互降对等 关税，自主可控是长期形势 【行业评论】煤炭：煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 3 月进口负增，进口煤 种结构变化 【公司评论】威孚高科(000581.SZ)：威孚高科 24 年报&25Q1 季报点 评-利润短期承压，加速构建智能电动与工业领域新生态 【 ...

通信 周跟踪（20250512-20250518） 领先大市-A(维持) ——中美互降对等关税，自主可控是长期形势 2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究/行业周报 1）中美贸易谈判取得阶段成效，中美互降对等关税利好光模块、铜连接等 出口链。 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 【山证通信】北美 CSP 资本开支展 5 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方取消了共 计 91%的加征关税，中方也相应取消了 91%的反制关税。并且美方 90 天内暂停 实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停 24%反制关税。在 90 天缓和期内，中 美关税水平已回到特朗普"解放日"前，市场认为这一谈判成果是超预期的，利 好消费电子、AI 算力、家电等出口板块。我们认为光模块、铜连接业绩好，估值 低，叠加机构持仓向主力指数成分千亿，有望迎来修复慢牛行情。此次关税政策 波动前所未有，但也体现出国内光模块企业的竞争力（关税发布后没多久就释放 出豁免政策）以及供应链韧性（国内海外双布局）。未来中美科技博弈的胜负手 还是在 AI，因此算力投资将持续较长时间，光模块（单芯片 IO 带宽持续增加）、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase exceeding 15% relative to the benchmark index [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 8.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 179.2%, and net profit of 2.84 billion yuan, up 312.3% [1][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.05 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.2% and a year-on-year increase of 264.1%. The net profit for the same period was 1.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 384.5% [2][9]. - The company's gross margin and net margin reached new highs, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 48.7% and net margin at 38.8% [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 4.00 yuan, with a projected EPS of 8.31 yuan for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [9][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 34.1% in 2024 and 42.4% in 2025, showcasing the company's efficient use of equity [9][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.89 billion yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years, reaching 9.21 billion yuan by 2027 [7][9]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is benefiting from increased demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly from major North American cloud service providers (CSPs), which are expected to increase capital expenditures by 37% to 305.5 billion USD in 2025 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity for point-to-point optical modules reached 10.6 million units in 2024, a 24.7% increase from 2023, indicating robust demand [4][6]. - The company is actively investing in research and development, with R&D expenses projected to reach 400 million yuan in 2024, a 201.4% increase year-on-year [6][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 29.4 in 2024 to 14.2 in 2025, suggesting that the stock is currently undervalued [9][11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 10.0 in 2024 to 6.0 in 2025, further indicating potential for price appreciation [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but is accelerating the construction of a new ecosystem in the smart electric and industrial sectors [2][4]. - The traditional core business of automotive fuel injection systems is facing a decline due to the shift towards electric vehicles, while the intake system business is benefiting from the rapid growth in hybrid vehicle sales [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding into smart electric components and non-automotive sectors, aiming to build a diversified business ecosystem for sustainable growth [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.660 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.68% [4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.834 billion yuan, down 2.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million yuan, down 35.46% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.18%, a slight increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.38%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points [6]. Business Segment Performance - The automotive fuel injection system segment generated revenue of 4.645 billion yuan, down 8.52% year-on-year, while the automotive after-treatment system saw revenue of 3.477 billion yuan, up 1.99% [5]. - The intake system business experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 954 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.93% [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 11.854 billion yuan, 12.848 billion yuan, and 14.085 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.410 billion yuan, 1.460 billion yuan, and 1.824 billion yuan for the same years [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][8]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but is accelerating the construction of a new ecosystem in the smart electric and industrial sectors [2][4]. - The traditional core business of automotive fuel injection systems has seen a decline in revenue due to the shift towards electric vehicles, while the intake system business has benefited from the rapid growth in hybrid vehicle sales [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding into smart electric and non-automotive sectors, aiming to build a diversified business ecosystem for sustainable growth [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.660 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.68% [3][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.834 billion yuan, down 2.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million yuan, down 35.46% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.18%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.38%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [5][10]. Business Segment Analysis - The automotive fuel injection system segment generated revenue of 4.645 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 8.52% year-on-year, while the automotive after-treatment system saw revenue of 3.477 billion yuan, a growth of 1.99% [4]. - The intake system business experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 954 million yuan, a substantial increase of 43.93% year-on-year, despite a decline in gross margin from 22.42% to 19.52% [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 11.854 billion yuan in 2025, 12.848 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.085 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.410 billion yuan in 2025, 1.460 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.824 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10]. - The company is focusing on external collaborations and expanding into non-automotive sectors, which is anticipated to open new growth opportunities [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in revenue and profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 8.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 179.2%, and net profit of 2.84 billion yuan, up 312.3% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued to show strong performance with revenue of 4.05 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.2%, and net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, up 32.0% [1]. - The gross margin and net margin reached new highs at 48.7% and 38.8% respectively in Q1 2025, positioning the company as a leader in the industry [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's point-to-point optical module production capacity increased by 24.7% year-on-year to 10.6 million units in 2024, reflecting strong demand [4]. - The fixed asset value reached 2.28 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 65.2% [4]. - Inventory value surged to 5.46 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 262.8%, indicating robust delivery demand [4]. Market Dynamics - The company benefits from the increasing capital expenditure of major North American CSPs, which is expected to rise by 37% to 305.5 billion USD in 2025 [3]. - The company has successfully launched new products, including the second-generation 1.6T OFSP and OSFP-RHS optical modules, which utilize advanced 3nm DSP technology [4]. Research and Development - The company invested 400 million yuan in R&D in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 201.4%, focusing on hyperscale DCI and advanced coherent technology [7]. - The domestic market revenue reached 1.84 billion yuan in 2024, a significant year-on-year growth of 266.0%, establishing the company as a key player in the domestic AI computing market [7]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.89 billion yuan, 7.43 billion yuan, and 9.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS estimates of 8.31, 10.48, and 13.00 [8]. - The current valuation is at a historical low, supporting the "Buy-A" rating [8].

煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 同步大市-A(维持) 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】2025 年一季度煤炭债复盘： 平均期限创新高，市场尚未交易煤炭利 差 2025.5.22 【山证煤炭】关税博弈落地，煤炭重回 供 需 逻 辑 - 【 山 证 煤 炭 】 行 业 周 报 （20250512-20250518）： 2025.5.19 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 25 年 3 月进口负增，进口煤种结构变化 2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点： 数据拆解： 量价：前 3 月进口煤同比增速边际放缓，3 月同比负增；前 3 月全口径煤炭 进口价格较去年同期下降；3 月价格同环比下降。2025 年 1-3 月，煤及褐煤累计 进口量实现 1.15 亿吨，同比减少 0.90%；3 月单月实现进口量 3873 万吨，同比 减少 6.40%，环比增长 12.72%。2025 年 1-3 月全口径煤炭进口均价 ...

输变电设备 金杯电工（002533.SZ） 增持-A(首次) 核心业务保持增长，持续推进产能扩张与全球化布局 2025 年 5 月 23 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 近日，金杯电工发布 2024 年度报告。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收 入 176.69 亿元，同比增长 15.54%；实现归母净利润 5.69 亿元，同比增长 8.78%。2025 年 Q1，公司实现营业收入 40.97 亿元，同比增长 16.32%。 归母净利润为 1.36 亿元，同比增长 1.84%。 事件点评 市场数据：2025 年 5 月 22 日 收盘价（元）： 9.57 核心业务持续增长，市场份额不断扩张。分业务来看，2024 年电磁线业 务出货量约 8.5 万吨，同比增长约 20%，营收突破 66 亿元，同比增长约 31%， 营收占公司总营收比重接近 40%，利润占比突破 40%。在特高压输变电领域， 公司获得多项特高压项目订单，配套台数同比增长超 20%。在新能源汽车领 域，深化与主流企业合作，拓宽产品应用范围。电线电缆业务 2024 年实现 营收 109.71 亿元，同比增长 8.63%。公司加大直 ...

输变电设备 金杯电工（002533.SZ） 增持-A(首次) 核心业务保持增长，持续推进产能扩张与全球化布局 2025 年 5 月 23 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 近日，金杯电工发布 2024 年度报告。2024 年全年，公司实现营业收 入 176.69 亿元，同比增长 15.54%；实现归母净利润 5.69 亿元，同比增长 8.78%。2025 年 Q1，公司实现营业收入 40.97 亿元，同比增长 16.32%。 归母净利润为 1.36 亿元，同比增长 1.84%。 事件点评 市场数据：2025 年 5 月 22 日 收盘价（元）： 9.57 年内最高/最低（元）： 12.21/7.95 流通A股/总股本（亿）： 6.38/7.34 流通 A 股市值（亿）： 61.02 总市值（亿）： 70.24 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 核心业务持续增长，市场份额不断扩张。分业务来看，2024 年电磁线业 务出货量约 8.5 万吨，同比增长约 20%，营收突破 66 亿元，同比增长约 31%， 营收占公司总营收比重接近 40%，利润占比突破 40%。在特高压输变电领域， 公司 ...