Group 1 - The macro environment in the second half of 2025 faces multiple contradictions, including the transition of economic drivers and the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, while technological innovations in AI, robotics, and other fields are enhancing global competitiveness [1] - The marine economy is emerging as a new engine for economic growth, with the marine production value expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing 11.5% to GDP [1] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with high-frequency economic indicators showing mixed results, and the EPMI index significantly below historical levels [2][30] Group 2 - The military trade sector is expected to see strategic development opportunities, with advanced fighter jets like the J-10CE and J-35 becoming key assets for China's military exports [7] - The military procurement model is shifting from single equipment purchases to systematic equipment procurement, enhancing the value of military trade [7] - Investment focus in the military sector includes main platforms, radar technology, unmanned systems, and guided equipment [7] Group 3 - The oil market remains under the influence of the shale oil era, with expectations for a small cycle nearing its end by 2025 [9] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize after a complete inventory cycle, but supply constraints may limit rebound potential [9] - Natural gas prices are anticipated to enter a more relaxed state post-2025 as new capacities come online [9] Group 4 - The wind turbine manufacturing sector is expected to see a profit turnaround in 2024, with the company achieving the largest market share in offshore wind projects [11][14] - The company has established a stable wind farm operation model, contributing to profitability through both self-operated and sold projects [14] - Forecasted net profits for the company are projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong future performance [14] Group 5 - The agricultural sector is facing challenges with fluctuating pig prices and a decrease in profitability for self-breeding operations [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks and strong companies within the pig farming sector [17] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in pig farming, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [17] Group 6 - The construction materials sector is experiencing growth opportunities, particularly in water conservancy and port expansion projects [22] - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to enhance its capabilities in solidifying materials and equipment [22] - Projected net profits for the company are expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified in the report [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the YU7 model is expected to be a significant product for Xiaomi, showcasing a shift towards practicality while maintaining a luxurious brand image. The YU7 is positioned as a mid-to-large pure electric SUV, featuring advanced technology such as laser radar, 800V fast charging, and Nvidia Thor chips [1][2]. - The YU7 is anticipated to leverage Xiaomi's ecosystem, potentially enhancing overall revenue growth through better integration with AIOT products. The initial user interest has exceeded expectations, with a significant portion of new users showing interest in the brand [2][3]. - The report forecasts a strong sales performance for the YU7, predicting that it may outperform market expectations due to its competitive pricing strategy and high-value features [3]. Summary by Sections Product Overview - The YU7 is Xiaomi's second vehicle, designed to complement the SU7, with a focus on a more practical approach while retaining a sporty design. It offers options for single and dual motor configurations, with a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds [1]. Market Positioning - The YU7's pricing strategy is centered around providing value for money, with luxury features included in the offering. The report notes that the initial user engagement for the YU7 has been significantly higher than that of the SU7, indicating a broader appeal [2][3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Xiaomi's total revenue could reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with electric vehicles and innovative business segments contributing 96.4 billion CNY and 250.6 billion CNY respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY for the same years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories internally while also pursuing external growth through acquisitions. The performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by fluctuations in the operations of its associate company, Weimeizi, and underperformance from its subsidiary, Shanenkang, leading to impairment provisions for long-term equity investments and goodwill [1][5]. - The company has a significant production capacity for toothbrushes and wet wipes, and it is actively expanding its toothpaste category, with production capacity increasing from 60 million to 120 million units [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10 million yuan, a decline of 34.5% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year, but a net loss of 80 million yuan, a significant decline of 183.6% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for oral care and wet wipes being 22.6% and 23.5%, respectively [2][11]. Product Segment Summary - In 2024, toothbrush revenue was 500 million yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 420 million units, a rise of 14.7%. The average price per unit decreased by 5.5% to 1.19 yuan [1]. - Wet wipes generated revenue of 390 million yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year, with sales volume of 5.28 billion pieces, an increase of 19.0%, while the average price per unit decreased by 4.0% to 0.07 yuan [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its support for its subsidiary, Shanenkang, focusing on developing major customer relationships and implementing performance evaluation mechanisms to improve its financial performance [4]. - The company is also prioritizing the development of its own brand products alongside its ODM business, aiming for scale growth in toothpaste, toothbrushes, and orthodontic care products while ensuring reasonable profit margins [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing the mid-year reporting window, continuing to recommend downstream high prosperity and western structural prosperity varieties [2][3] - The real estate sector is currently in a slow adjustment phase, with a focus on promoting market stabilization from both supply and demand sides [2][14] - The report highlights potential overperformance in Q2 for companies in the fiberglass, coatings, and ester chemical sectors, suggesting continued focus on these areas [3][20] Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.45%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 1.68%. However, the fiberglass and glass sectors achieved positive returns [12][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaisheng New Energy (+18.0%), Zhenan Technology (+17.7%), and Quartz Shares (+14.9%) [12][17] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with demand weakening due to seasonal factors [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market showed weak overall transactions, with prices declining [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali roving remained stable, with prices slightly down [19] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include: - China National Materials (17.58 CNY, Buy) - Three Trees (34.70 CNY, Buy) - Honghe Technology (13.68 CNY, Hold) - Qingsong Construction (3.59 CNY, Buy) - Gaozheng Mining (32.60 CNY, Hold) - Tibet Tianlu (8.07 CNY, Hold) - Shafeng Cement (8.03 CNY, Buy) [9][20]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that ultra-long credit bonds are leading the market, with credit bond yields following the downward trend of interest rate bonds, although the overall market is still experiencing a compression of credit spreads [1][9] - Short-term credit bonds around 1 year are closely following interest rate trends, with limited room for further compression due to previously extreme spread reductions [1][9] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been particularly strong, transitioning from mid-high grade industrial bonds to urban investment bonds, indicating a robust market sentiment [1][9] Group 2 - As of June 22, 2025, the issuance scale of ultra-long credit bonds has reached 587.8 billion yuan this year, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating a recovery in supply [2][16] - The report notes that the liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds has improved, driven by increased supply and a more diverse participation from various market entities [4][35] - The report emphasizes that for institutions with stable liabilities, ultra-long credit bonds still offer attractive coupon advantages, making them more appealing than interest rate products [5][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of ultra-long credit bonds during different market conditions, noting that they tend to outperform shorter-term bonds during periods of declining yields due to thicker coupons and longer durations [24][25] - Conversely, during market downturns, ultra-long credit bonds can experience greater capital losses due to their lower liquidity and duration effects, which can lead to negative returns if coupon income is insufficient to cover losses [26][29] - The report indicates that as of June 20, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds with maturities over 5 years is approximately 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of the total credit bond market [20][22]

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector is experiencing continuous compression of profit margins, with a focus on the expected differences in the pig market. As of June 21, the average price of pigs in China was 14.37 CNY/kg, down 0.28% from the previous week, with self-breeding profits around 92 CNY/head, significantly narrowed from 160 CNY/head in early May. The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 128.28 kg, showing a slight decrease, while the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 4.74% [1][15][16]. Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The pig price remains low, and the price of piglets continues to decline. The average price of 7 kg piglets is 443 CNY/head, and 50 kg sows are priced at 1619 CNY/head, with piglet prices down over 200 CNY from their peak. The supply side shows a clear trend of reduced weight, but absolute weights remain historically high [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the low valuation and expected differences in the pig sector, highlighting the profitability of leading companies. The average market value per head for major players like Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture is between 2000-3000 CNY, while others are below 2000 CNY, indicating a relative historical low in valuations [2][16]. Pet Sector - JD.com reported significant growth in the pet sector during the 618 shopping festival, with a 32% year-on-year increase in transaction users and a 39% increase in new pet owners. Domestic brands are gaining a strong foothold, with 7 out of the top 10 pet food brands being Chinese [3][17]. - Pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 139,100 tons exported from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, amounting to 4.175 billion CNY [3][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 40.66% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates. The average price of broiler chicks is 2 CNY/bird, down from the previous week [4][19]. - The yellow chicken supply may contract, with demand being a critical variable. The current breeding stock is at a low level, and the demand for yellow chicken is expected to improve in the second half of the year [5][21]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with the average price of egg-laying chicks at 4.0 CNY/bird, down 2% from the previous week [6][22]. Planting Sector - The focus on food security emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency in grain production, with a significant contribution from yield improvements. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that yield increases contributed over 80% to grain production growth in 2024 [7][23]. - The report highlights the importance of biotechnology in enhancing agricultural competitiveness, with recommendations for leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [8][24]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to see improved market share and performance. The prices of various fish species are showing mixed trends, with overall fish prices expected to rise due to policy support [9][25]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in the pet health market. Key recommendations include companies like Keqian Biological and Zhongmu Co [10][26].

Group 1 - The bond market has maintained a strong trend, with short-term bonds performing well and the ultra-long bond market, represented by 20-year and 50-year government bonds, continuing to thrive. As of June 20, the yields on 1Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, and 50Y government bonds have decreased by 4.5BP, 0.4BP, 5.5BP, 1.2BP, and 4.7BP respectively, reaching 1.36%, 1.64%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% [1][6][22]. Group 2 - The central bank has conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation to address multiple liquidity pressures, including a peak maturity of 4.2 trillion yuan in June. The central bank's actions aim to smooth out seasonal funding fluctuations and alleviate banks' interest margin pressures, indicating a comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity [2][19][20]. Group 3 - The main buyers of ultra-long bonds are funds, which have significantly increased their holdings of 20-year and 50-year government bonds, net buying 108 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan respectively from June 16 to June 20. Other product categories, including social security and pension funds, have also shown a preference for these long-duration bonds [3][25][23]. Group 4 - The driving factors behind the ultra-long bond market's performance include strengthened expectations of policy easing, a favorable basic economic environment, and the higher coupon yields and capital gains associated with 20-year and 50-year government bonds. The yield curve shows that the 20-year bond remains a key point of interest, with its yield at 1.87% as of June 20 [28][30][31]. Group 5 - The overall environment for the bond market remains relatively favorable, supported by a mild economic recovery and the central bank's liquidity support. However, there are concerns about potential adjustments and liquidity issues as the market evolves. The short-term segment may see opportunities for trading and value in the context of stable deposit prices [35][36].