固定收益 | 固定收益点评 地缘风险持续，影响几何？ 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250622 海外市场复盘（6.16-6.20） 本周欧美主要股指涨跌不一，波动率上升。本周股市主线围绕中东局势、 央行动态展开。周一，消息称伊朗愿重启谈判，美英达成贸易协议，主要 股指普涨。但周二中东局势再度紧张，欧美股市下跌。周三美联储主席鲍 威尔发言偏鹰，发言后美股由涨转跌。周五中东局势持续，抑制股市表现。 美元上涨、美债收益率下行。中东局势持续紧张，鲍威尔暗示通胀仍将面 临关税带来的上行压力，美元指数本周上涨 0.6%。美国公布经济数据疲软， 5 月零售销售环比-0.9%，低于预期值-0.7%，下一任美联储主席热门人选沃 勒放鸽、表示最早 7 月降息，美债收益率继续下行。 商品方面，油价收涨，黄金收跌。中东局势反复，油价本周震荡，连续第 三周收涨，但涨势明显放缓。本周黄金价格下跌，美元反弹压制黄金价格、 伊朗释放缓和信号、以及前期大涨后部分投资者选择获利了结。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储维持利率不变，但鲍威尔表态偏鹰。本次 FOMC 经济预测中， 美联储下调 GDP 预测、上调失业率预测、上调通胀预测。点阵图比 ...

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the market is balanced and loose, with DR001 falling below the 1.4% policy rate, and state-owned banks' net financing reaching a year-high of 4.55 trillion yuan [1][11][27] - Historical trends indicate that at the end of June, funding rates typically rise, but the central bank often increases liquidity support, especially during a month with significant fiscal spending [21][27] - Concerns for the upcoming cross-quarter period include a high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit exceeding 4 trillion yuan, and a recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks, which may lead to deposit outflows [26][27] Group 2 - Next week, the market will see over 10 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, along with the continuation of MLF operations, indicating ongoing liquidity support from the central bank [2][33] - Government bond net payments are expected to increase significantly, with a net payment of 7.498 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial fiscal activity [4][31] - The interbank certificate of deposit maturity will be 11.092 trillion yuan, which remains substantial, and attention will be paid to the pressure of renewing these deposits as the quarter-end approaches [6][31] Group 3 - The average daily net financing from state-owned banks has been rising, with a significant increase noted this week, indicating a robust liquidity position [5][27] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit remains stable, with no significant upward pressure on rates, suggesting a controlled liquidity environment [6][27] - The second quarter has seen an acceleration in fiscal bond issuance, which is expected to provide additional liquidity support as the quarter-end approaches [27][39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to identify and recommend sectors or themes with strong momentum, focusing on technology-related sectors and specific themes like military and Hong Kong automotive industries[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the TWO BETA model. However, it is used to track and recommend sectors based on their relative performance and momentum trends[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model continues to recommend technology sectors, military themes, and Hong Kong automotive themes, indicating its focus on identifying upward trends in these areas[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend sectors based on medium-term perspectives, focusing on sectors undergoing a turnaround or showing resilience in current market conditions[2][3][10]. **Model Construction Process**: The report does not provide detailed steps or formulas for the construction of the industry allocation model. It is used to identify sectors like innovative drugs in Hong Kong, new consumption themes, and financial sectors in Hong Kong[2][3][10]. **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights sectors with potential for recovery or sustained growth, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and financial sectors, which are deemed to have intact trends[2][3][10]. - **Model Name**: Timing System **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to determine the market's overall environment and timing signals[1][9][13]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) for the Wind All A Index. 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{Short-term MA} - \text{Long-term MA}}{\text{Long-term MA}} $ - Short-term MA (20-day): 5130 - Long-term MA (120-day): 5075 - Distance: 1.09% 3. Interpret the signal: If the absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase[1][9][13]. **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with the short-term moving average above the long-term moving average, suggesting a lack of strong directional trends[1][9][13]. Backtesting Results of Models - **TWO BETA Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Industry Allocation Model**: No specific backtesting results or quantitative metrics are provided in the report[2][3][10]. - **Timing System**: - Short-term MA: 5130 - Long-term MA: 5075 - Distance: 1.09% - Absolute distance remains below 3%, confirming the market's consolidation phase[1][9][13]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: None explicitly mentioned in the report. Backtesting Results of Factors - **Factors**: No specific factors or their backtesting results are provided in the report.

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.51 CNY, based on a 17x PE for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in wind turbine manufacturing and wind farm operations, with a dual-driven business model. It has maintained the largest market share in China for 14 consecutive years and ranks first globally for three years [1][13]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturing is expected to improve, with a recovery in margins anticipated in 2024 and a potential turnaround to profitability in 2025 [2][43]. - The company has a strong position in both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in wind turbine exports and a leading position in offshore wind projects [2][32][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 2001 and has become a leading provider of wind power solutions, with three main business segments: wind turbine manufacturing, wind power services, and wind farm investment and development [1][13]. 2. Wind Turbine Manufacturing - The domestic wind turbine market is stabilizing, with prices recovering from historical lows. The average bidding price for wind turbines has increased from around 1400 CNY/kW in August 2024 to 1590 CNY/kW by March 2025 [34][35]. - The company is expected to see a significant increase in export capacity, with a projected 2.5 GW of new shipments in 2024, marking a 45% year-on-year growth [2][32]. 3. Wind Farm Operations - The company has developed a stable "rolling development" model for wind farms, with a self-operated capacity of 8.0 GW and an additional 4.1 GW under construction as of March 2025 [3]. - The profitability of wind farm operations is expected to remain strong, supported by favorable market conditions and stable pricing mechanisms [3]. 4. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, projecting 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, representing an 80.5% year-on-year growth [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 56.7 billion CNY in 2024 to 79.2 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 39.73% increase [4]. 5. Market Dynamics - The global wind power market is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in offshore wind projects in Europe and onshore projects in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [29]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards value competition rather than price wars, with major players focusing on technology and service quality [34].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][7][10] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has delivered an absolute return of 12.25%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 13.76% [10] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, characterized by unexpected earnings and significant upward price gaps on the first trading day post-earnings announcement [2][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 28.66%, with an annualized excess return of 27.16% over the benchmark [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has recorded an absolute return of 18.81%, outperforming the benchmark index by 20.32% [16] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [3][18] - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 13.06% relative to the CSI 300 index [20] - The strategy's performance this week resulted in an excess return of -1.03% [20]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended the issuance of the first two data center infrastructure REITs, namely the Runze Technology Data Center Project and the GDS Data Center Project, which have received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1][7] - These projects represent the first of their kind in the data center asset category and are private investment projects, which will enhance the innovation of investment and financing mechanisms in the new infrastructure sector, promote the development of the digital economy and artificial intelligence industries, and broaden financing channels for private enterprises [1][7] - The NDRC plans to intensify its efforts in regularly recommending the issuance of infrastructure REITs to expand the market and support effective investment [1][7] Group 2: Primary Market - As of June 20, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs has reached 174.4 billion, with a total of 66 REITs issued [8][9] Group 3: Market Performance - During the week of June 16-20, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index increased by 0.88%, while the REITs Total Index rose by 2.08%, and the Property REITs Index saw a rise of 2.95% [2][17] - The REITs Total Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points and the CSI All Bond Index by 1.80 percentage points, but underperformed the Nanhua Commodity Index by 0.21 percentage points [2][17] - Notable individual REITs included Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT (+8.10%), Huaxia Fund Huayuan REIT (+7.77%), and CICC Xiamen Anju REIT (+7.72%) [2][17] Group 4: Liquidity - The total trading activity of REITs increased this week, with a total trading volume (MA5) of 569 million, up 3.8% from the previous week [3][37] - The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs (MA5) were 317 million and 252 million, respectively, reflecting changes of 5.6% and 1.6% from the previous week [3][37] - The largest trading volume among REIT types this week was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 26.2% of total trading volume [3][37] Group 5: Valuation - The report does not provide specific valuation metrics or insights related to the REITs or the broader market [42]

Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry as a key investment theme for the year, anticipating 2025 to be a pivotal year for AI infrastructure and applications in China [3][20]. - The report highlights significant growth in the global Ethernet switch market, with a 32.3% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand from data centers as cloud service providers build infrastructure for the AI era [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI industry dynamics and investment opportunities, particularly in the context of the "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" strategy [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations for optical modules and devices include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [4][23]. - For switch server PCBs, recommended stocks are: Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][23]. - Low valuation and high dividend opportunities in cloud and computing resources are identified in China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][23]. - AIDC and cooling solutions highlight key recommendations for Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][23]. - AIGC applications and edge computing power focus on recommended stocks like Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][23]. 2. Marine Wind and Cable & Intelligent Driving - Key recommendations for marine wind and cable include: Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][24]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the overseas expansion and intelligent driving sectors [5][24]. 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The report notes accelerated development in low-orbit satellites and the low-altitude economy, recommending companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][25][26]. 4. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 1.43% during the week of June 16-20, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.89 percentage points [27]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the communication sector, noting significant gains for companies like Chutianlong and Dongxin Peace [29]. 5. Key Stock Recommendations - Specific stock recommendations include Zhongji Xuchuang (buy), Tianfu Communication (overweight), and Hudian Co. (overweight) [10][23]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of stocks in the AI and digital economy sectors for potential investment opportunities [21][22].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Insights - The trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" is accelerating, with significant changes in total volume, structure, institutions, and pace observed in the first five months of the year [9][18] - The effective credit demand remains weak, leading to a strong policy-driven effect on credit issuance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [9][10] - The loan interest rate decline has significantly slowed down, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for credit [14][18] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of Credit Issuance This Year - The total amount of new loans in Q1 was nearly 10 trillion, with a year-on-year increase, but the monthly new loans in April and May hit historical lows [9][10] - The structure of credit issuance shows a rise in short-term loans for enterprises while long-term loans are declining, indicating a credit rush phenomenon during the "opening red" period [9][10] - Policy banks are expected to maintain a higher loan issuance rate compared to commercial banks, which are experiencing a more pronounced reduction in credit [10][12] 2. Characteristics of Deposit Growth This Year - M2 growth remains high at 8%, but signs of fund circulation are emerging, with banks engaging in high-cost interbank borrowing while offering low rates for repurchase agreements [19][20] - The deposit generation rate from loans is weak, with a historical low gap between corporate loans and deposits [25][26] - The average duration of deposits is declining as banks adjust their liability structures to mitigate interest rate risks [26][29] 3. Market Implications - The ongoing trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" suggests a friendly monetary environment, with low funding rates expected to persist [30][33] - The emergence of fund circulation phenomena necessitates attention to potential marginal adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank [30][29] - The anticipated limited downward adjustment in LPR and loan rates in the second half of the year may lead to an increase in loan spreads despite a decrease in LPR [33][30]