金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 净利润断层本周超额基准 1.35% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 20.07%，超额中证 500 指数 14.81%，本周策 略超额中证 500 指数 0.84%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓，截至 2025-07-11 日，本期组合超额基准指数 2.03%。 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式，其核心有两点： "净利润"，指通常意义上的业绩超预期；"断层"，指盈余公告后的首个交 易日股价出现向上跳空，该跳空通常代表市场对盈余报告的认可程度。 策略在 2010 年至今取得了年化 29.48%的收益，年化超额基准 27.54%。本 年组合累计绝对收益 32.83%，超额基准指数 27.56%，本周超额收益 1.35%。 沪深 300 增强组合 根据对优秀基金的归 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 新兴产业 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 四川省发布实施方案推动可控核聚变产业发展 2025 年 7 月 3 日，四川省人民政府办公厅发布《关于发展壮大新兴产业加快培育未来产业的 实施方案（2025-2027 年）》，明确支持可控核聚变这一未来产业。方案强调以重大工程牵引 磁约束、惯性约束核聚变技术双线突破，加速成果转换，培育创新型企业，涉及建设准环对称 仿星器、争取关键技术攻关工程落地、开展氘氚燃烧与聚变材料研制等内容，同时支持相关产 业协同发展，凸显四川在核聚变领域的全面布局。该方案还特别提出依托中国工程物理研究院 加快建设电磁驱动聚变大科学装置，拓展新型功能材料研发、激光加工等方面应用场景和商业 化应用。与其他省市相比，四川此次是首次以单独段落形式明确支持可控核聚变，而非将其归 入先进核能或先进能源范畴。我们认为，这体现了政府决策机构对这一领域的高度重视。在此 背景下，四川已在可控核聚变领域以积极的政策及全面的产业规划加速前进，有望引领 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观定 价主导，铜铝高位震荡》 2025-07-06 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:美元弱 势叠加降息交易预期再起，有色偏强运 行》 2025-06-30 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:地缘冲 突加剧，黄金避险属性凸显推升金价上 行》 2025-06-15 金属与材料 证券研究报告 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2024-07 2024-11 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The construction sector has seen a significant increase in attention towards urban renewal, with undervalued large-cap stocks showing signs of stabilization. The sector's performance is driven by improved demand-side policy expectations and a shift away from excessive competition, benefiting both large and small-cap stocks. The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments such as urban renewal, coal chemical, nuclear power, and steel structures, while also considering the beta opportunities in large-cap stocks [1][13][14]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is accelerating, with policies from the central government outlining goals and support measures. The focus includes the renovation of old residential areas, establishing safety management systems for buildings, and creating resilient and smart cities. The report identifies four key categories for investment: design and testing, construction and decoration, urban infrastructure renovation, and resilient/smart city initiatives, highlighting specific companies in each category [2][15][17]. Market Performance - The construction index rose by 2.77% in the week of July 7-11, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.76 percentage points. Notable performers included Guosheng Technology (+42.98%), New City (+34.73%), and Beautiful Ecology (+34.46%) [4][21][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the cyclical opportunities arising from improved physical work volume in infrastructure. It suggests focusing on high-demand areas such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation, particularly in regions like Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Recommended companies include Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and major state-owned enterprises like China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction [27][28]. Emerging Business Directions - The report highlights the growing demand for computing power driven by AI applications, recommending companies like Hainan Huatie for their transition into computing power leasing. It also notes the potential in cleanroom sectors due to the ongoing domestic replacement in the semiconductor industry, suggesting companies like Baicheng and Shenghui Integration [29][30]. Major Projects and Themes - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in major hydropower projects, deep-sea economy, and low-altitude economy, recommending companies involved in these sectors, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [32][30].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 新房成交继续降温，等待政策发力 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250712 需求：新房成交环比下滑，汽车消费边际回落 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比大幅回落，同比下降，明 显低于季节性水平，高能级城市新房成交同比跌幅扩大。此外，重点城市 二手房成交面积环比延续下降。 当前地产供需两端维持偏弱表现，下半年地产宽松政策或仍需积极发力， 如核心城市限购进一步松绑、下调住房贷款利率、降低首付比例等措施， 释放改善性住房需求。 若年内政策力度强于预期，地产销售同比降幅有望收窄，地产投资下行斜 率或逐步放缓；若年内政策力度不及预期，地产市场或仍处于低位磨底状 态，销售量价维持偏弱表现，地产投资跌幅可能小幅扩大。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比下降，观影消费 低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周上升，一线城市 地铁客运量环周回落。 价格：农产品价格企稳，国际原油价格上涨 （1）CPI 方面，农产品批发价格 200 指数环周上涨 0.4%，猪肉、蔬菜价格 上升，鸡蛋、水果价格下降。（2）PPI 方面，大宗商品价格有所分化，国 际原油价格上 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 资金面多重扰动将至 1、资金面聚焦：多重扰动将至 前半周公开市场延续净回笼，资金面从月初的宽松逐渐切换至本周的均衡 状态，后半周资金有所收敛，资金利率上周阶段性下台阶后，本周温和抬 升，大行融出逐日小幅回落，存单价格波动加大。 本周，央行未开展买断式逆回购操作，或因跨季后资金面阶段性进入较为 舒适状态。这也说明了当前央行操作思路更趋灵活精准，买断式逆回购的 操作并不必然与 MLF 形成"月初-月中-月末"的三阶段呵护，落地节奏更 多是综合考虑政府债供给、MLF 回笼情况、税期走款等多重变量的影响。 聚焦下周，税期走款、政府债供给压力增加、MLF 回笼等多重扰动将至， 或阶段性放大资金面压力，市场对于流动性的需求或将增加，资金与存单 的价格或需观察，央行如何应对流动性回笼、政府债发行、存单到期及税 期走款，或将成为判断后续资金利率能否继续平稳运行的重要观察点。 2、公开市场：下周 MLF 回笼 1000 亿元 7/7-7/11，逆回购净投放-2265 亿元，7/14-7/18，公开市场到期规模 5257 亿元。其中，逆回购到期 4257 亿元，MLF 回笼 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Huaxia Fund's Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT plans to initiate a second round of fundraising to acquire infrastructure projects, which include the Hangzhou Xiaoshan Mixc Project, Shenyang Changbai Mixc Project, and Zibo Mixc Project, effectively expanding the fund's coverage of consumer infrastructure across different cities [1][7] - The new acquisitions are expected to diversify the fund's asset portfolio, reduce risks, and enhance the growth potential while ensuring stable cash flow [1][7] Group 2 - In the market performance section, the report notes that during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.12%, with the total REITs index down by 1.68% [2][17] - The report highlights that the total REITs index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by 2.50 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.57 percentage points [2][17] - Individual REITs such as the Jiashi JD Warehouse Infrastructure REIT, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT, and Southern SF Logistics REIT showed gains of 4.25%, 1.01%, and 0.79% respectively [2][17] Group 3 - The liquidity analysis reveals that the total trading volume of REITs decreased to 550 million yuan, a 17.4% decline from the previous week [3][39] - The report details that the trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 331 million yuan and 213 million yuan, reflecting decreases of 12.6% and 14.1% respectively [3][39] - Among various REIT categories, the traffic infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume, accounting for 23.4% of the total [3][39] Group 4 - The report states that as of July 11, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 177.1 billion yuan, with 68 REITs issued [8][10] - It mentions that the issuance pace of C-REITs has slowed down in 2023 but is expected to accelerate in 2024, indicating a normalization in the issuance process [15][16] Group 5 - The valuation section provides insights into the bond yield and P/NAV ratios for various REITs, indicating that the Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT has a bond yield of 2.95% and a P/NAV of 1.51, both in the 99th percentile historically [44] - The report includes a comparative analysis of different asset types, showing varying yields and historical percentiles for P/NAV across multiple REITs [44]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 因子跟踪周报：波动率、Beta 因子表现较好- 20250712 因子 IC 跟踪 IC 方面，最近一周，1 月特异度、bp 三年分位数、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较好，股息率、季度 roa、季度毛利率等因子表 现较差；最近一月，1 月特异度、1 个月超额收益率波动、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较好，一致预期 EPS 变动、季度 roa、 季度毛利率等因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月反转、Fama- French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较好，一年动量、股息率、前 五大股东持股比例合计等因子表现较差。 因子多头组合跟踪 多头组合方面，最近一周，Beta、季度净利润同比增长、季度 roe 同比等 因子表现较好，财报超研报预期程度、90 天内预期调整均值、90 天净上 调预期占比等因子表现较差；最近一月，Beta、1 月特异度、1 个月超额 收益率波动等因子表现较好，财报超研报预期程度、90 天分析师覆盖 度、90 天内预期调整均值等因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月换 手率波 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.86 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is focusing on the development trends of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, emphasizing innovation and the integration of digital currency research into its operations [1]. - The company has a significant operational asset base from its investment projects, generating substantial traffic data assets, with projected revenue from four highway projects reaching 1.31 billion CNY in 2024 [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new business areas such as low-altitude economy and smart transportation, with digital information business revenue expected to grow from 317 million CNY in 2023 to 401 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - The company has signed new orders worth 1,030 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.01% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in municipal and energy sectors [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 74.19 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.66%, followed by a decline to 68.82 billion CNY in 2024 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.94 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight decrease to 2.84 billion CNY in 2024, before rising to 3.10 billion CNY in 2025 [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.93 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.90 CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 0.98 CNY in 2025 [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.75 in 2023, slightly increasing to 6.98 in 2024, and then decreasing to 6.41 in 2025 [5].

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the current consolidation in the consumer sector is a pause rather than an end, drawing parallels from the long transformation processes in the US and Japan [1][10]. - The report identifies a common trend in consumer behavior shifting from family-oriented consumption to individual-focused consumption, with a transition from optional consumption in urban lifestyles to personal spiritual consumption, often accompanied by a decline in GDP growth rates [2][4]. - It is noted that China is currently transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with economic indicators resembling the later stages of Japan's third consumption society and the latter half of the US brand consumption phase [4][26]. Group 2 - For essential consumption, the investment strategy is based on a "bottom warehouse" thinking, focusing on undervalued quality growth stocks with high dividend yields, particularly in the food and beverage and textile sectors [5][40]. - The report emphasizes that the essential consumption sector is largely in a mature stage, characterized by stable low growth, and suggests that the investment approach should prioritize low valuation and high ROE [5][40]. - In the optional consumption sector, the report suggests that the configuration strategy should focus on operational improvement indicators from financial reports, aligning investments with macroeconomic data improvements [6][51]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the current consumer data may indicate a fundamental turning point, with macroeconomic data showing positive signals, particularly in the optional consumption sector [6][51]. - It is suggested that the configuration strategy for optional consumption should involve selecting companies with operational improvements based on financial reports and macroeconomic data trends [6][51]. - Specific sectors to focus on include motorcycles and home appliances, with an emphasis on identifying companies that show marginal improvements in ROE and profit growth [6][51].