分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 高端制造产业跟踪（2月）： AI应用贯穿全年，传统行业+AI的价值或被低估 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 | 机械设备行业 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | 联系人：张雪 02 联系人：周越 数据跟踪 03 04 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/03/07 板块观点 01 1. 板块观点 本月机器人板块表现优异，板块有望贯穿全年。2月机器人板块有亮眼表现，我们认为板块行情有望贯穿全年。 1）从产业逻辑来看，2025是AI应用元年，具身智能占据产业链关节身位。首先，模型性能的快速增长、开源模型的爆发、算力成本的下降，从供给侧铺平了AI应 用的道路；其次，从商业模式来看，产业急需爆款级别的AI应用完成商业的闭环。AI应用是2025年主线，而具身智能是AI应用重要分支。 2）产业进度来看超预期。本月figure发布helix模型及在物流场景的应用视 ...

[Table_Main] 极地黄金锑产量将再次缺失，锑价上涨 基础继续夯实 事件描述 极地黄金锑产量 1.27 万吨，同比大幅下降 1.44 万吨/-53%。3 月 5 日晚，极 地黄金披露 2024 年报，公司全年浮选锑精矿产量含锑 1.27 万吨，主因富锑 矿开采量减少所致，下半年产量降幅更为明显。其中，24H1 产量 0.86 万吨 /24H2 产量 0.41 万吨，浮选精矿锑含量分别为 14.3%/15.3%。 事件点评 富锑矿采区开采完毕，锑产量大幅下降。Olimpiada 矿是公司唯一含锑的黄金 矿山，其中 Vostochny 采区第四阶段属于富锑矿段，2024 年开采完毕导致 Olimpiada 浮选精矿产量下降。根据公司公告，24H2 加强 Vostochny 采区第 五阶段开采剥离工作，所以采剥比大幅抬升。 矿端库存和浮选精矿产品库存均大幅消耗。1）24H2 明显矿石处理量高于矿 石开采量，说明公司消耗前期积累库存；2）根据公司公告，24H2 黄金销量 提高，主要销售了之前积累的含锑浮选矿，作为黄金成本抵扣，黄金成本环比 下降 16%达到 355 美元/盎司（24H1 锑抵扣 6 美元/盎司 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price inversion of salt and lithium may put pressure on lithium prices in the future [1] - The report discusses the dynamics of various segments within the new energy industry, including energy metals, batteries and materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage/grid, and electricity [8][10] Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trends - The report notes that in January, China's sales of power and other batteries reached 80.4 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 36.5% but a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [11] - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to maintain high growth due to recent price increases and policies encouraging battery replacements [11] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure due to a price inversion with salt, and the supply from major lithium producers is recovering quickly [13] - Cobalt prices are expected to decline due to overall weak demand and high inventory levels [13] - Nickel market prices are constrained by low demand, despite a slight decrease in inventory [13] New Energy Vehicles - In February, new energy vehicle sales remained stable, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1% among reported manufacturers [14] - BYD has launched a full range of intelligent driving features, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit [14] Photovoltaic/Wind Power - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a surge in production due to new policies, although profitability remains low [15] - Wind power production is increasing, with a significant rise in component prices as the industry enters a peak season [15] Energy Storage/Grid - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements is seen as a positive development for the energy storage industry [20] - Total investment in the grid is expected to exceed 800 billion in 2025, with a focus on ultra-high voltage and smart grid technologies [20] Electricity (New Energy/Traditional Energy) - The 2025 energy work guidelines emphasize supply security and low-carbon transformation, with a target of adding over 200 GW of new energy capacity [20]

Economic Growth and Targets - The 2025 economic growth target is set at 5%, higher than the international forecast of 4.5%-4.8%, indicating confidence in economic recovery and sufficient policy reserves[2] - The CPI target is set at 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to current weak domestic demand and expectations[2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan[3] - General public budget expenditure is projected at 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year, breaking the previous consensus of a 3% fiscal constraint[3] - The issuance of special bonds includes 1.3 trillion yuan for long-term bonds and 500 billion yuan to support state-owned banks, with a total new government debt of 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan[17] Domestic Demand and Structural Reforms - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized in the 2025 government work tasks, emphasizing the need for consumption and investment[4] - The report outlines ten key areas of focus, with "expanding domestic demand" at the forefront, followed by "developing new productivity" and "promoting education and science"[4] Risk Management and External Environment - The report acknowledges rising external uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, which may impact trade and investment confidence[9] - It emphasizes the need for proactive policy implementation to enhance economic resilience against external shocks[11] Long-term Economic Strategy - The focus on "new productivity" and "education and science" reflects a long-term strategy for sustainable economic growth, balancing short-term stabilization with long-term development[4] - The government aims to address structural issues in the economy, including weak domestic demand and employment challenges, through comprehensive macroeconomic policies[10]

[Table_Main] 2025 年政府工作报告透露出哪些资本 市场高质量发展信号? 事件描述 2025 年 3 月 5 日，全国人大第十四届三次会议在北京召开，国务院总理李强 代表国务院作出政府工作报告（下文简称《报告》）。 （1）进一步细化中长期资金长周期考核机制。我国养老基金、企业年金、职 业年金对权益资产的投资比例较低，考核周期较短、对波动率容忍程度较低 是制约养老基金参与权益市场的重要原因；保险资金需增配权益资产缓解"资 产荒"压力，保险资金作为中长期资金入市确定性较高。未来将有更多助力中 长期资金入市的细化规则落地，推动养老金、保险资金发挥"耐心资本"优 势。（2）ETF 图谱进一步完善，推动指数化基金发展。以 ETF 为代表的指 数化基金是中长期资金的重要组成部分，我们看好宽基 ETF、红利 E TF 及服 务新质生产力的主题型被动产品；被动债基有望获得更多政策支持，改善债 券型基金主被动投资失衡的局面；顺应全球资产配置的 QDII-ETF 等产品有 望进一步扩容，进一步完善 ETF 图谱。（3）强化市值管理，持续优化资本市 场投资生态。强化上市公司市值管理，提升投资者获得感，是资本市场投资生 ...

[Table_Main] 刚果金钴出口熔断，供应集中金属品种 的潜在危机 事件描述 2025 年 2 月 24 日，刚果民主共和国表示将暂停钴出口四个月，以控制国际 市场上的供过于求。该国战略矿物市场监管管理局主席 PatrickLuabeya 称， 禁止出口的措施已于 2 月 22 日生效。2 月 21 日，总理和矿业部长签署了一 项法令，允许监管机构在"影响市场稳定的情况下"采取包括禁止出口在内的 临时措施。虽然对钴运输的封锁"单方面且无一例外地"适用于所有生产商， 但对生产没有任何限制，因此对铜的出口应该不会产生影响。 事件点评 停止出口 4 个月预计影响约 6.7 万吨可流通原料，短期价格有提振。以刚果 金年化 20 万吨产量计算，停止 4 个月出口或影响 6.7 万吨可流通钴原料供 应，对生产方面没有影响，预计在当地形成库存累积。影响相对较大的则是中 国地区原料供应，2024 年中国进口钴原料 62.9 万实物吨，其中 62.0 万吨来 自于刚果金，短期国内原料有紧张预期，市场报价跳涨。 实际供需影响有限，中长期重点关注接续政策变化。（1）2022 年以来钴原 料因过剩或新增累库达到 8.7 万吨， ...

我们预计广东碳市场管控行业发生变化的有钢铁、水泥和纺织行业。其中，预 计 2025 年钢铁和水泥两个行业将退出广东碳市场，转向全国碳市场履约，管 控碳排放规模约 1.4 亿吨。预计纺织行业会成为广东碳市场下一个强制纳入 的行业，管控规模预计约 150-400 万吨。 | [Table_Invest] 电气设备 | | | --- | --- | | 评级： | 看好 | | 日期： | 2025.02.26 | 证券研究报告 [Table_ | 行业First 点评] 2025 年广东碳市场会有哪些变化？ 报告要点 广东碳市场整体碳排放配额发放基本实现盈亏平衡，但略微宽松。广东碳市 场钢铁、水泥、造纸、石化、民航和电力控排企业近年总体碳排放量约为 3.55- 3.96 亿吨，对应碳排放配额平均发放量约为 4.25-4.51 亿吨；不含电力行业 的碳排放量约为 1.85-1.96 万吨，对应碳排放配额平均发放量约为 2.52-2.65 亿，碳排放配额发放高于碳排放量，考虑到广东碳市场存在储备碳排放配额 情况，我们认为广东碳市场整体碳排放配额发放基本实现盈亏平衡，但略微 宽松。具体到各纳管行业实际碳排放量，计算得 ...

Global Macro Environment - The global manufacturing PMI index reached 50.1 in January, marking a 7-month high, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing[6] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, showing a continuous recovery for three months[9] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, indicating reduced space for future cuts due to strong employment and inflation data[15] Domestic Macro Environment - In January, China's new social financing scale increased by 7 trillion yuan, with new medium- and long-term loans to enterprises reaching 3.46 trillion yuan, reflecting enhanced investment willingness[16] - The manufacturing PMI's production and operation expectation index rose to a 9-month high, signaling improved business expectations[16] - However, the CPI rose only 0.5% year-on-year in January, indicating slow price recovery, while the PPI fell 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak domestic demand[17] Policy and Economic Outlook - Local governments are actively addressing real estate and debt issues, with Guangdong province planning to repurchase idle land across 15 cities, covering 684.4 million square meters[22] - The central government is focusing on supporting private enterprises and technological innovation, as highlighted in a recent meeting led by President Xi Jinping[24] - The upcoming Two Sessions in March are expected to reinforce fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate the economy[25] Asset Performance - Chinese stock markets (A-shares and H-shares) showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 16.8% and the ChiNext Index up 12.1%[30] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with gold rising 7.2% and silver 8%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation expectations[35] - The bond market is relatively weak, with short-term and long-term bond indices down 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, indicating a potential adjustment phase[31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The launch of the Helix model by Figure is significant for both the company and the humanoid robotics industry, showcasing advancements in AI and robotics technology [11][3] - The Helix model features a dual-system architecture that achieves a frequency output of 200Hz, efficient training with only 500 hours of high-quality supervised data, low computational requirements, and the ability for multiple robots to collaborate on tasks [12][15] - The rapid increase in Figure's valuation to $39.5 billion, up from $2.6 billion in the previous funding round, is attributed to the Helix model, indicating a strong influx of capital that could accelerate industry development [14][3] Summary by Sections Model Innovations - The Helix model introduces a new dual-system that allows for high-frequency output and efficient training with minimal data requirements [12][15] - It operates on low-power GPUs, demonstrating its efficiency and potential for widespread application [15] Investment Implications - The Helix model is expected to significantly accelerate the humanoid robotics industry, with Figure currently negotiating a new $1.5 billion funding round [14][3] - The model raises questions about data barriers in AI, suggesting that effective generalization may be achievable with internet data rather than solely relying on extensive datasets [14][3] - The advancements in the Helix model indicate that Level 3 autonomous driving is imminent, with Level 4 not far behind, as the technology matures [14][3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [2][30]. Core Viewpoints - The additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. will affect over $200 billion of the automotive industry's value, accounting for 37% of the overall market size [5][8]. - The average cost per vehicle in the U.S. is expected to rise by $3,500, approximately 7% of the current vehicle price, which will suppress demand in the short to medium term [5][13]. - The tariffs will significantly impact the automotive industries in Mexico and Canada, as a large portion of their production is exported to the U.S. [19][21]. - Companies with significant production in Mexico, such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Nissan, will be most affected due to their reliance on Mexican manufacturing [16][19]. Summary by Sections Section: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced a 25% additional tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on goods from China, which will impact the automotive industry significantly [5][8]. - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to import approximately $2.347 billion worth of automotive products from Mexico, Canada, and China, which constitutes 52% of total imports and 37% of the automotive market size [8][13]. Section: Market Dynamics - The U.S. automotive market is estimated to be over $600 billion, with new car sales projected at 15.9 million units in 2024 [8]. - The average vehicle price is expected to be around $50,000, with a gross margin of 20%, leading to a market size of approximately $6.344 billion excluding gross profit [8]. Section: Brand-Specific Impact - Volkswagen's sales in the U.S. are heavily reliant on Mexican production, with 59% of its sales coming from there, making it particularly vulnerable to the tariffs [16][19]. - General Motors and Ford also have significant exposure, with their sales in the U.S. being affected by the tariffs due to their production in Mexico [16]. Section: Chinese Market Influence - The direct impact of the tariffs on the Chinese automotive industry is relatively small, as the import and export volumes to the U.S. are around 110,000 units each, which is minor compared to the overall industry size [21][22]. - Chinese companies with operations in Mexico will need to seek alternative routes due to the tariff implications [21].