证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 5 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 电力行业数据点评 2024 年风光新增 357.8GW，电网投资展现高景气 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 2024 年全年风光新增 357.8GW，占新增装机总比重为 82.6% 2024 年 1-12 月，全国规模以上电厂发电新增设备容量 43323 万千瓦，同比 增长 17.38%。其中，水电新增 1378 万千瓦，同比增长 33.25%；火电新增 5771 万千瓦，同比减少 12.12%；核电新增 393 万千瓦，同比增长 183.02%； 风电新增 7982 万千瓦，同比增长 5.5%；光伏新增 27798 万千瓦，同比增 长 28.17%。2024 年风光合计新增 357.8 吉瓦，占新增装机总比重为 82.6%。 光伏产业链上游硅料、组件价格逐渐触底。截至 2025 年 1 月 20 日，国产 多晶硅料(一级料)现货价为 5.29 美元/千克，周环比持平，同比下降 35.2%； 光伏行业组件综合价格指数(SPI)为 13.67，周环比持平，同比下降 19.59%。 ❑ 风光累计装机比重达 42% 截至 2024 年 12 月末，全 ...

近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 12 37 26 绝对收益 8 35 43 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 06 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 节前行业小幅上涨，成本端支撑尚可，钕铁硼价格趋稳 相关研究： | 《上周行业延续反弹，成本端坚挺支撑下钕 | | | --- | --- | | 铁硼跟涨上调》 | 20250122 | | 《上周行业大幅反弹，钕铁硼价格跟随成本 | | | 端波动》 | 20250114 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点： 轻稀土矿方面，节前一周国内混合碳酸稀土矿、四川氟碳铈矿及山东氟碳 铈矿价格分别持平于 2.3 万元/吨、2 万元/吨和 1.5 万元/吨，进口独居石 矿价格周环比上涨 1.57%至 3.89 万元/吨，美国矿价格持平于 1.9 万元/吨。 中重稀土矿方面， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Weigao Orthopedics (688161 SH) for the first time [3][7] Core Views - Weigao Orthopedics' revenue and net profit have fully recovered and exceeded expectations in Q3 2024 [3] - Q1-Q3 revenue reached RMB 1 083 million up 0 07% YoY - Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 164 million up 34 66% YoY - Q3 revenue reached RMB 333 million up 20 06% YoY - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 71 1633 million up 594 19% YoY - The company has significantly improved its sales and distribution capabilities with multiple product lines showing substantial sales growth [4] - Spine product line sales volume increased 36 17% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Trauma product line sales revenue increased 16 25% and sales volume increased 18 45% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Joint product line sales revenue increased 23 12% and sales volume increased over 27 37% YoY in Q1-Q3 - Sports medicine product line sales revenue reached RMB 28 538 million up over 11 times YoY in Q1-Q3 - The company is actively expanding overseas business with rapid growth [5] - Overseas trade increased 52% YoY - Focused on regional strategies and product registration in key countries - The company has diversified its R&D layout with multiple new products approved [6] - New products include "Occipitocervicothoracic Posterior Spinal Fixation System" "Plasma Surgical Equipment" and "Disposable Annulus Fibrosus Suture Device" Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit projections for 2024-2026 [7][10] - 2024E revenue: RMB 1 418 million (+10 4% YoY) - 2025E revenue: RMB 1 680 million (+18 5% YoY) - 2026E revenue: RMB 2 016 million (+20 0% YoY) - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 232 million (+106 9% YoY) - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 310 million (+33 5% YoY) - 2026E net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 360 million (+16 1% YoY) - Valuation metrics [7][10] - 2024E EPS: RMB 0 58 - 2025E EPS: RMB 0 78 - 2026E EPS: RMB 0 90 - 2024E PE: 49 69x - 2025E PE: 37 22x - 2026E PE: 32 07x Financial Performance - Key financial indicators for 2023A and 2024-2026E [10][13] - Gross margin: 66 5% (2023A) 64 7% (2024E) 64 5% (2025E) 64 4% (2026E) - ROE: 2 9% (2023A) 5 8% (2024E) 7 4% (2025E) 8 1% (2026E) - Net profit margin: 8 8% (2023A) 16 4% (2024E) 18 5% (2025E) 17 9% (2026E) - ROIC: 4 5% (2023A) 10 1% (2024E) 12 0% (2025E) 14 6% (2026E)

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The company achieved steady growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 17.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion yuan, up 11.14% [4] - The company's operational efficiency is high, with a gross profit margin of 40.39% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from 2023, leading the industry [5] - The company is expanding its store network rapidly, with a total of 15,050 stores by the end of the reporting period, including 3,625 franchise stores [6] - The company is effectively capturing the outflow of hospital prescriptions through both online and offline channels, with 87.08% of its direct stores qualifying as medical insurance designated retail pharmacies [7] - The company maintains a competitive advantage in core regions such as Central South and East China, with significant scale advantages and steady business operations [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 17.219 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.111 billion yuan, reflecting a robust operational performance [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth to 24.697 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit expected to reach 1.578 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.30 yuan and a PE ratio of 18.10 [10][12] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 39.9% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.7% [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately 276 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.64%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.85% to about 59 million yuan [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for humanoid robots and plans to increase production capacity for harmonic reducers and mechatronic products [5][6]. - Despite short-term pressure on profitability due to increased competition in the smart robotics sector and rising expense ratios, the long-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated growth in the harmonic reducer market [6][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, up 1.63% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.20 percentage points to 39.53%, and the net profit margin fell by 7.37 percentage points to 21.71% due to rising sales, R&D, and financial costs [4][6]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic harmonic reducer market and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for humanoid robots, which presents a significant growth opportunity [5][6]. - The company has received approval for a 2 billion yuan capital increase project aimed at expanding production capacity to meet market demands [5][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 398 million, 478 million, and 617 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7%, 20.0%, and 29.3%, respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 82 million, 106 million, and 139 million yuan, with growth rates of -2.0%, 28.4%, and 30.9% [6][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The machine tool industry has shown signs of recovery, with a narrowing decline in revenue for key enterprises, which decreased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period [5] - The new orders for metal cutting machine tools increased by 2.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed by 1.2 percentage points [5] - The production of metal cutting machine tools reached 570,000 units from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, with a slight increase in growth rate by 0.2 percentage points [5] - The total import and export value of machine tools from January to September was $23.3 billion, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with imports down by 9.7% and exports up by 1.2% [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry has experienced a relative performance of -20% over the past twelve months compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3] - The relative return over the last month was 8.2%, while the absolute return was 9.8% [3] Investment Recommendations - Following a series of incremental policies since September, the PMI for October rose by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion [6][33] - Equipment and tool purchases related to machine tool demand grew by 16.1% from January to October, exceeding the fixed asset investment growth rate by approximately 12.7 percentage points [6][33] - The report suggests that the machine tool industry is expected to see improved performance due to equipment updates and the effects of incremental policies, with a focus on leading companies in various segments of the machine tool industry [6][33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit improvement in Q3 2024, with new production capacity expected to ramp up [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.819 billion yuan, down 57.42% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the company recorded operating revenue of 6.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.99%. The net profit for Q3 was 520 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 58.72% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.51% [4]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's coal sales volume improved quarter-on-quarter, indicating potential marginal performance recovery. The decline in performance was primarily due to reduced coal sales and falling coal prices during the reporting period. The total raw coal production for the first three quarters was 28.7422 million tons, down 17.6% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 26.5818 million tons, down 15.9% year-on-year. In Q3, raw coal production was 10.0822 million tons, down 9.33% year-on-year and 0.73% quarter-on-quarter, with commercial coal sales at 9.4818 million tons, down 5.47% year-on-year but up 7.55% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton of coal decreased quarter-on-quarter, leading to a recovery in gross profit. The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 564.33 yuan/ton, down 7.1% year-on-year. The selling price in Q3 was 550 yuan/ton, down 2.5% year-on-year but up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton was 319 yuan/ton, up 21.1% year-on-year but down 8.0% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 230 yuan/ton, down 23.2% year-on-year but up 9.6% quarter-on-quarter [6]. Project Development - The company has ongoing coal mine projects progressing smoothly, ensuring energy reserves are secure. The approved production scale for the Qiyuan and Bolin coal mines is 5 million tons/year each, totaling an additional 10 million tons/year. Additionally, the company acquired coal exploration rights in Shouyang County for 6.3 billion tons, further enhancing its coal resource reserves and optimizing resource allocation [7]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that as the impact of the "three excesses" regulation in Shanxi Province diminishes, the company's coal production and sales are expected to gradually improve, leading to marginal performance recovery. The steady advancement of coal mine projects and active acquisition of coal exploration rights will further increase the company's coal resource reserves, potentially benefiting from increased capacity and opening up growth opportunities in the future. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.376 billion, 3.590 billion, and 3.918 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.00, and 1.09 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 8.24x, 7.75x, and 7.10x [9].

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the medical consumables industry [8][33] Core Views - The medical consumables sector experienced a correction last week, with a decline of 3.93% [5] - The sector's PE (ttm) is 34.82X, and PB (lf) is 2.46X, indicating valuations are at historical lows [6][21] - Policy support is improving, with the establishment of a medical insurance prepayment system, which benefits the cash flow of medical consumables companies [6][26] - The sector's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 remains strong, particularly in interventional and electrophysiological consumables [7][32] - The orthopedic consumables sector is gradually recovering from the impact of centralized procurement, with marginal improvements in performance [9][32] - Low-value consumables are seeing a rebound in orders and performance recovery after the high inventory impact from the pandemic [9][32] Sector Performance - The medical consumables sector fell 3.93% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.63 percentage points [5][13] - The sector's relative returns over 1 month, 3 months, and 12 months are -1%, -6%, and -21%, respectively, compared to the CSI 300 [5] - Top-performing companies in the sector include Kaili Medical (+2.5%) and Cainiao Medical (+1.9%), while underperformers include Saike Medical (-10%) and Guanhao Biotech (-8.1%) [18][20] Policy and Industry Dynamics - The medical insurance prepayment system has been established to alleviate the financial pressure on medical institutions, with some regions reducing payment cycles to around one month [6][26] - Beijing has introduced a policy to support the medical device industry, aiming to achieve a total scale of over 50 billion yuan by 2026, with a focus on high-end medical consumables [27] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-value consumables companies with rich product lines and high innovation, such as interventional and electrophysiological consumables leaders [9][33] - Pay attention to orthopedic consumables companies showing marginal performance improvements [9][33] - Long-term growth is expected in the sector, driven by high clinical value and innovation, with a recovery in hospital demand [9][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [11] Core Insights - The vaccine industry has faced significant pressure in Q3, with a notable decline in prices that has not yet resulted in volume recovery [3][39] - The overall performance of the vaccine sector has been poor, with a cumulative decline of 32.29% since the beginning of 2024, while the broader pharmaceutical sector has decreased by 9.76% [7][20] - Despite the challenges, there are long-term driving factors such as policy support, increasing demand, and technological advancements that are expected to promote growth in the vaccine industry [39][40] Market Performance - Last week, the vaccine sector reported a decline of 2.78%, which is relatively smaller compared to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [7][20] - The current PE (ttm) for the vaccine sector is 38.55X, down by 1.09X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) stands at 2.13X, a decrease of 0.06X [9][27] Company Performance - Notable companies with strong performance last week include Wantai Biological Pharmacy, Watson Bio, and Hualan Biological Engineering, while companies like CanSino Biologics and KANGHUA Biotech lagged behind [8][26] - Recent developments include CanSino's initiation of Phase I clinical trials for a new vaccine, and Wantai's approval for clinical trials of a nine-valent HPV vaccine for males [10][35][38] Industry Dynamics - The vaccine industry is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to intense competition, but there is also a continuous improvement in vaccine R&D capabilities [39] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and product differentiation, suggesting that companies with strong technological advantages will have better market positioning [39][40]