Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for revenue growth and operational efficiency, suggesting a favorable investment perspective [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 504 million yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year due to pressures from shipping costs and pricing strategies [1]. - The cross-border sales and logistics solutions business showed strong growth, with revenues of 8.27 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 17.6% and 47.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising logistics costs [3]. - The company has strengthened its integrated warehousing and distribution capabilities, leading to an increase in market share across various product categories on platforms like Amazon [4]. - Future revenue growth is expected to continue, with projections indicating a stable increase in sales for key categories such as furniture and home appliances, while logistics solutions are anticipated to grow rapidly due to ongoing investments in overseas warehouses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.71 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 30.8% and a net profit of 504 million yuan [1][3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 12.90 billion yuan, 15.29 billion yuan, and 17.88 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 581 million yuan, 681 million yuan, and 792 million yuan [8][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its inventory turnover days, indicating enhanced operational efficiency in its cross-border e-commerce operations [3]. - The logistics solutions business has been optimized through the establishment of a global warehousing and logistics network, which supports the sales of large items like furniture [4]. Market Position - The company has seen a continuous increase in market share for several product categories on Amazon, attributed to effective supply chain management and product development capabilities [4]. - The brand's competitive advantage is further reinforced by the successful integration of logistics solutions with product sales [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the official launch of IQOS in the US, with PMI aiming for a 10% market share by 2030. The initial pricing for the device is set at $60 and $8 for the tobacco sticks [4] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in various sectors, including paper, home furnishings, consumer goods, and AI-driven products, indicating a favorable outlook for companies like Xianhe Co., Sun Paper, and others [2][4] - The report notes that the AI mattress market is expected to reach $1.8 billion by 2024, with significant consumer interest in AI-driven sleep solutions [2] - The report discusses the impressive revenue growth of Pop Mart, which achieved a 106.9% increase in revenue to 13.038 billion yuan in 2024, driven by both domestic and international sales [4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - April pulp prices are expected to rise, with Suzano announcing a $20 increase in Asia and a $60 increase in Europe and America. This is anticipated to improve profitability for companies like Xianhe Co. and others [2] Home Furnishings - AI sleep technology is rapidly developing, with leading companies like Mousse launching new AI smart mattresses that significantly enhance sleep quality [2] Consumer Goods - New products from Runben are anticipated to perform well, and the AI toy market is diversifying with innovative offerings [2] Two-Wheelers - Yadea and Luyuan are expected to recover in 2025, with Yadea projecting a 60% increase in sales in Q1 [3] Electrical Appliances - Bull Group is actively innovating in products and channels, maintaining steady growth in revenue [3] Beauty and Personal Care - Mao Geping's revenue grew by 35% in 2024, with a focus on high-quality growth and international expansion [4] Gold and Jewelry - Old Pulp Gold and Chao Hong Ji are expected to maintain high growth despite industry challenges, with sales growth anticipated in March and April [4] IP Retail - Pop Mart's revenue growth is driven by its strong IP strategy, with significant increases in both domestic and international markets [4] New Tobacco Products - The report highlights the launch of IQOS in the US and PMI's strategic goals for market penetration [4] Exports - Steelcase and MillerKnoll report stable growth in US orders, indicating resilience in the market [5] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Karot and Aukey are experiencing good revenue growth, although profitability is showing signs of volatility [5] Maternal and Infant Products - The collaboration between Kid's King and Volcano Engine aims to innovate in AI products for the maternal and infant sector [5] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are performing steadily, with expectations for continued growth despite potential pressures in the two-piece can market [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The utility sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.7% as of March 28, 2025, compared to a flat performance of the CSI 300 index [3][10] - The coal prices have shown a downward trend, with Qinhuangdao port coal price (Q5500) at 667 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][20] - The electricity market is expected to see profitability improvements and value reassessment due to ongoing supply-demand tensions and market reforms [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector's performance was worse than the market, with a 0.7% decline [10] - The electricity sector fell by 0.68%, while the gas sector dropped by 1.16% [12] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - Coal prices: Qinhuangdao port coal price (Q5500) is 667 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton week-on-week [20] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port is 6.95 million tons, down 340,000 tons week-on-week [27] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces is 2.826 million tons, down 375,000 tons/day, a decrease of 11.72% week-on-week [29] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - Domestic LNG prices decreased slightly, with the Shanghai LNG ex-factory price index at 4546 CNY/ton, down 0.57% week-on-week [53] - International gas prices also saw a slight decline, with European TTF spot prices at 12.94 USD/MMBtu, down 3.5% week-on-week [59][61] Industry News - Hubei Province issued new guidelines for distributed photovoltaic power generation, impacting project timelines and operational standards [4] - The National Energy Administration held a meeting to discuss the planning and construction of oil and gas infrastructure for 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The electricity sector is expected to benefit from improved profitability and value reassessment, with a focus on coal power leaders and regional electricity suppliers [4] - Natural gas companies are likely to see stable margins and increased sales volumes due to recovering domestic consumption [4]

全国碳排放权交易市场首次扩围，碳市场或将催生新的产业机遇 [Table_Industry] ESG 周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 29 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] ESG 投资评级 —— 上次评级 —— [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 全国碳排放权交易市场首次扩围，碳市场或将催生 新的产业机遇 [Table_ ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：需求端偏弱，炼化产品价格弱势下跌 [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 3 月 28 日当周，国内重点大炼化 项目价差为 2340.61 元/吨，环比变化-32.75 元/吨（-0.55%）；国外重 点大炼化项目价差为 949.27 元/吨，环比变化-44.82 元/吨（-4.51%）。 截至 3 月 28 日当周，布伦特原油周均价为 73.35 美元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's coal business is expanding, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. In 2024, coal production reached 142 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.86%, while coal sales were 136 million tons, up 7.31% [4] - The company aims to increase its coal production to 155-160 million tons in 2025, targeting an increase of over 13 million tons year-on-year [4] - The chemical segment is also expected to enhance profitability, with a production of 8.7 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 1.3% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on internal and external growth, with significant projects underway to enhance coal and chemical production capacities [5] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a proposed total dividend of 0.77 CNY per share for 2024, representing 53.59% of net profit under Chinese accounting standards [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 139.12 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.27% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion CNY, down 28.37% [1][2] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 35.8%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.5% [6] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.5 billion CNY, 15.1 billion CNY, and 16.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.65 CNY [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's coal business is expanding steadily, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. In 2024, coal production reached 142 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.86%, while coal sales were 136 million tons, up 7.31% [4] - The company is diversifying into high-end chemical materials, with a chemical product output of 8.7 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 1.3% year-on-year increase [4] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns, with a total dividend of 0.77 CNY per share for 2024, representing 53.59% of net profit under Chinese accounting standards [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 139.12 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.27% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion CNY, down 28.37% [1][2] - The operating cash flow was 22.34 billion CNY, an increase of 38% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.46 CNY, a decline of 46.85% [1] Production and Sales - The company achieved a coal production target of 155-160 million tons for 2025, aiming for an increase of over 13 million tons year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 672 CNY per ton, down 16.3% year-on-year [4] Chemical Business - The chemical segment generated revenue of 25.2 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with various chemical products showing mixed performance in terms of production and pricing [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from stable coal prices and is focusing on expanding production capacity and enhancing operational efficiency [5] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.5 billion CNY, 15.1 billion CNY, and 16.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.44 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.65 CNY [6]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 邮储银行(601658) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 邮储银行 2024 三季报点评：营收利润 增速回正，代理费率调整贡献利润 邮储银行 2024 中报点评：对公贷款贡 献规模扩张，资产质量保持平稳 对公贷款贡献扩表，Q1 存款成本率再 下行 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 邮储银行 2024 年报点评：主动调费优化结 构，夯实资本规模稳增 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 29 日 充足率分别为 9.56%、11.89%、14.44%，分别相比 2023 年末+0.03pct、 +0.28pct、+0.11 pct。 盈利预测：邮储银行坚持 ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has experienced a decline of 2.52% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as long products and plates seeing declines of 2.95% and 3.18% respectively [10][13] - Iron and steel production has shown a month-on-month increase, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.3728 million tons, a 1.02% increase week-on-week and a 15.89% increase year-on-year [20] - Steel consumption has also increased, with total consumption of five major steel products reaching 9.198 million tons, up 1.41% week-on-week [26] - Social inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 2.76% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [33] - The price index for ordinary steel has risen slightly, while special steel prices have seen a minor decline [41] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance has lagged behind the market, with specific declines noted in various sub-sectors [10][13] 2. Core Data - Daily molten iron production and capacity utilization rates for both blast and electric furnaces have increased, indicating a positive trend in production efficiency [20] - Consumption of major steel products has risen, reflecting a potential recovery in demand [26] 3. Inventory Levels - Both social and factory inventories of major steel products have decreased, suggesting a tightening supply environment [33] 4. Prices and Profits - The ordinary steel price index has increased slightly, while special steel prices have decreased, reflecting mixed market conditions [41] - Profit margins for rebar production have shown fluctuations, with electric arc furnace profits remaining negative [47] 5. Raw Material Prices - The price of imported iron ore has increased, while coking coal prices have remained stable, impacting overall production costs [63] 6. Company Valuations - Key companies in the steel sector are highlighted for their potential growth and investment opportunities, particularly those with strong cost control and high margins [64]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Continuous Hedging Strategy **Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the convergence of futures basis and optimized hedging methods, as detailed in the report series "Research on Futures Basis Convergence and Hedging Optimization Strategy" by Cinda Securities[44] **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to March 28, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, CSI 300 futures contracts), occupying the remaining 30% of funds[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days. Close positions at the closing price and open positions in the next quarterly/monthly contract at the same closing price[45] **Evaluation**: Provides a systematic approach to hedging but does not account for transaction costs or market impact[45] - **Model Name**: Minimum Basis Strategy **Construction Idea**: Select contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] **Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to March 28, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, CSI 300 futures contracts), occupying the remaining 30% of funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts daily and select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening positions. Hold the selected contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to expiration are less than 2 days[46] **Evaluation**: Offers flexibility in contract selection but requires frequent rebalancing, increasing operational complexity[46] Model Backtesting Results - **Continuous Hedging Strategy** - **CSI 500 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -2.01% (monthly), -1.77% (quarterly), -0.84% (minimum basis)[48] - Volatility: 4.00% (monthly), 4.91% (quarterly), 4.82% (minimum basis)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis)[48] - Net Value: 0.9473 (monthly), 0.9534 (quarterly), 0.9778 (minimum basis)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 18.39 (minimum basis)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.73% (monthly), -0.06% (quarterly), -0.10% (minimum basis)[48] - **CSI 300 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.94% (monthly), 0.85% (quarterly), 1.40% (minimum basis)[53] - Volatility: 2.85% (monthly), 3.22% (quarterly), 3.01% (minimum basis)[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis)[53] - Net Value: 1.0254 (monthly), 1.0228 (quarterly), 1.0377 (minimum basis)[53] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 15.77 (minimum basis)[53] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.20% (monthly), 0.29% (quarterly), 0.41% (minimum basis)[53] - **SSE 50 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.33% (monthly), 2.01% (quarterly), 1.70% (minimum basis)[55] - Volatility: 3.09% (monthly), 3.48% (quarterly), 3.04% (minimum basis)[55] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis)[55] - Net Value: 1.0359 (monthly), 1.0545 (quarterly), 1.0459 (minimum basis)[55] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 17.27 (minimum basis)[55] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.51% (monthly), 0.51% (quarterly), 0.48% (minimum basis)[55] - **CSI 1000 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -4.90% (monthly), -4.02% (quarterly), -3.48% (minimum basis)[58] - Volatility: 4.25% (monthly), 5.29% (quarterly), 5.16% (minimum basis)[58] - Maximum Drawdown: -13.84% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis)[58] - Net Value: 0.8748 (monthly), 0.8965 (quarterly), 0.9101 (minimum basis)[58] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly), 16.89 (minimum basis)[58] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.22% (monthly), -0.34% (quarterly), -0.25% (minimum basis)[58] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Cinda-VIX **Construction Idea**: Reflects market expectations of future volatility based on option pricing, with adjustments for China's market characteristics[61] **Construction Process**: - Algorithm derived from the report series "Exploring Market Sentiment Embedded in Options"[61] - VIX values are calculated for different time horizons (e.g., 30, 60, 90, 120 days)[61] **Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and volatility expectations across different timeframes[61] - **Factor Name**: Cinda-SKEW **Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment on tail risks[70] **Construction Process**: - Derived from the relative differences in implied volatility between out-of-the-money call and put options[70] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased concerns about tail risks[71] **Evaluation**: Useful for identifying market fears of extreme events, often referred to as the "Black Swan Index"[71] Factor Backtesting Results - **Cinda-VIX**: - 30-day VIX values as of March 28, 2025: - SSE 50: 17.09[61] - CSI 300: 16.53[61] - CSI 500: 24.95[61] - CSI 1000: 24.14[61] - **Cinda-SKEW**: - SKEW values as of March 28, 2025: - SSE 50: 95.03[71] - CSI 300: 98.13[71] - CSI 500: 103.33[71] - CSI 1000: 98.94[71]