Market Overview - Year-to-date, stock ETFs have shown a net outflow of 187.3 billion yuan as of February 24, 2026[2] - The total return of the Wind All A-Share Index is 6.53% year-to-date, despite significant ETF outflows, indicating a shift in market sentiment[2] International Developments - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation of 30 representatives from the German business sector[3] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, suggesting potential tariff measures[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, with total trading volume reaching 24,625.48 billion yuan, an increase of 2,604.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.54%[4] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8195%, with a change of +1.42 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 in the interbank market were 1.4652% and 1.5869%, respectively[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included steel (4.69%), non-ferrous metals (3.48%), and building materials (2.75%), while banking and media sectors saw declines of 0.46% and 1.15%, respectively[5]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation today, with 300 billion MLF maturing this month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased operations, though the scale is smaller than last month's 700 billion[3] - The February LPR is set at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, remaining unchanged for 9 months[3] - The capital market is stable, with short-term monetary policy in an observation phase, and the central bank is leaning towards using OMO to adjust market liquidity[3] Global Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has officially begun imposing a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals[3] - China is closely monitoring the situation and may adjust its countermeasures regarding tariffs on U.S. products, including fentanyl[3] Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, with total trading volume reaching 22,020.62 billion, an increase of 2,193.82 billion from the previous trading day[4] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.76%, S&P 500 up 0.77%, and Nasdaq up 1.04%[4] Bond and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond is at 1.8053%, with a change of +0.92 BP[4] - The average rates for R001 and R007 are 1.4518% and 1.6102%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include petroleum and petrochemicals (+5.53%), building materials (+3.71%), and basic chemicals (+3.45%), while media, computers, and retail sectors saw declines[4]

Economic Policy and Agricultural Development - The central government's focus for 2026 includes four key tasks in the agricultural sector aimed at enhancing production capacity and quality, providing targeted assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing rural development[2] - The importance of developing new agricultural productivity is emphasized due to the return of migrant workers to rural areas, which can help utilize rural labor and improve income levels[2] - A pilot program for land extension will be implemented in 29 provinces, excluding Guizhou and Tibet, to support rural land management[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on February 4[3] - Current market liquidity is described as neutral and moderately loose, with seasonal tightening expected as the Spring Festival approaches[3] - There is potential for lowering existing mortgage rates to stimulate consumption, as pressures from exchange rates and bank net interest margins have eased[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, with total trading volume at 24,809.71 billion yuan, down by 632.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%, and the STAR 50 Index decreased by 1.2%[4] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05%[4] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.8201%, with a change of +0.24 basis points[4] - Average interbank rates for R001 and R007 were 1.3962% and 1.5554%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (7.58%), construction materials (3.48%), real estate (2.97%), and transportation (2.82%), while sectors like media and telecommunications saw declines of -3.12% and -2.73% respectively[4][25]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts[2] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate initial stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent high inflation, with a commitment to achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2%[2] Market Performance - As of January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%[4] - Market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 708 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating sustained market activity[4] Securities Firms - Over ten listed securities firms have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with many showing a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%[3] - The growth is attributed to a rebound in capital market activity, boosting core business areas such as brokerage, investment banking, and wealth management[3] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on 10-year government bonds is reported at 1.822%, down by 0.62 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.548%, down by 3.54 basis points[5] - The US dollar index strengthened to 96.35, with the offshore RMB trading at 6.9434 against the dollar, indicating pressure on the yuan[6] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led gains with an increase of nearly 6%, followed by resource stocks like oil and coal[4] - In contrast, sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals experienced notable declines[4]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP growth was 4.5%, with an annual GDP of 14,018.79 billion yuan, achieving a target growth of around 5%[12] - The contribution to GDP growth from final consumption expenditure was 2.6%, while net exports contributed 1.64%[12] Industrial Production - In December, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 5.9%[16] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw added value growth of 9.4% and 9.2%, respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.3 percentage points[16] Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment in 2025 was 485,186 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 6.4%[19] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.48%, marking the worst performance in a decade, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6%[19] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in 2025 decreased by 17.2%, the largest decline since the pandemic, with new construction area down by 20.4%[33] - New residential sales area fell by 8.7%, and sales revenue dropped by 12.6% year-on-year[33] Consumer Spending - In December, retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 0.9%, the lowest monthly increase of the year, with an annual growth of 3.7%[49] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.4%, while online retail sales of physical goods rose by 5.2%[49] Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% for the year[54] - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with fresh fruit prices recovering to a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in December[57]

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" and focus on key areas to "strengthen" support, with a special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan for private investment[2] - A 500 billion yuan guarantee plan for private investment aims to guide banks in providing loans to small and micro enterprises[2] - The implementation of interest subsidies for loans in 14 key industrial chains is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.97%, with total trading volume at 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones down by 2.39%, 2.06%, and 1.76% respectively[3] - The 10-year government bond yield in China decreased by 1.66 basis points to 1.8260%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] - Gold prices rose above $4,762 per ounce, and silver prices peaked at $95 per ounce amid increased global risk aversion[2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors led gains with increases of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55% respectively[3] - The telecommunications, defense, and computer sectors saw declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94% respectively[3]

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" with a focus on key areas, including a special guarantee plan of 500 billion yuan for private investment to guide banks in providing 500 billion yuan in loans for small and micro enterprises[2] - A loan interest subsidy policy will be implemented for small and micro enterprises, covering 14 key industrial chains and related sectors, which is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97%, with a total trading volume of 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - The three major U.S. stock indices saw declines of 2.39% for the Nasdaq, 2.06% for the S&P 500, and 1.76% for the Dow Jones, reflecting a general downturn in global markets[3] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond was 1.8260%, with a change of -1.66 basis points, while the average rates for interbank R001 and R007 were 1.4212% and 1.5429%, respectively[3] - The U.S. dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and real estate, with gains of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55%, respectively[3] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, defense, and computers experienced declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94%[3]

Economic Overview - In December 2025, China's GDP growth achieved the target of 5% for the year, despite a declining trend in traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure[2] - Fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year contraction, indicating a lack of robust economic momentum[2] - Consumer demand weakened significantly in the second half of 2025, leading to a slowdown in consumption growth[2] Market Performance - On January 19, 2026, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.09%[4] - The total trading volume for the day was 27,083.49 billion yuan, down by 3,178.84 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds was 1.8426%, with a change of -0.23 basis points[4] Commodity Prices - Gold futures rose by 1.77% to $4,676.7 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 6.49% to $94.28 per ounce, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions[3] A-Share Market Strategy - UBS highlighted a "slow bull" market strategy for A-shares, emphasizing the need for the stock market to replace real estate as a core wealth reserve for households[11] - The average annual financing scale for A-shares from 2015 to 2025 was 1.2 trillion yuan, with a significant gap between financing activities and investor returns[11] Future Outlook - UBS forecasts an acceleration in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, supported by improved nominal GDP growth and policy measures[14] - Key factors for market revaluation include proactive fiscal policies, long-term capital inflows, and successful international examples from Japan and South Korea[14] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient policy support, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the U.S.[31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The central bank has rolled out a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, focusing on private SMEs and technological innovation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with favorable conditions for further loosening of monetary policy [2][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Central Bank Policies - The central bank has lowered the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points. It has increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, and increased the quota for technological innovation and transformation relending by 400 billion yuan. It has also expanded the scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool and reduced the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - Central bank deputy governor Zou Lan stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Conditions for further loosening monetary policy are relatively sufficient, and loose monetary policy is needed to support positive fiscal policies, consumption boost, and investment stabilization [3]. Stock Market Performance On January 15, 2026 - A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2,905.496 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,035.893 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.46% [4]. - Internationally, South Korean, Dutch, and US stocks led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index, Saudi All - Share Index, and Nikkei 225 led the losses. European major stock indices also showed mixed performance [4]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8483%, with a change of - 0.14BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.4154% and 1.5497% respectively [4]. - In terms of sectors, electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the losses [4]. On January 8, 2026 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2,800.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 538.76 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.82% [7]. - US stocks showed mixed performance, and European stocks also had mixed results. The Nikkei 225, Dutch AEX, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index had relatively large declines [8]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8828%, with a change of - 1.6BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3424% and 1.5261% respectively [9]. - In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, media, building decoration, and real estate led the gains, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, communications, and banks led the losses [10]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 1.848, with a change of - 0.14BP. DR007 was 1.502, with a change of - 6.44BP. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9631, with a change of - 0.12%. The US dollar index was 99.34, with a change of 0.27% [20]. A - Share Market Overview - The total A - share market capitalization was 114.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.62 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year was 28.53 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 31,698.37 billion yuan. The PE(TTM) was 23.34x, and the PB(MRQ) was 6.23x. The margin trading balance decreased by 24,885.74 billion yuan compared to a month ago, and the short - selling balance decreased by 170.96 billion yuan [24]. - Different A - share indices had different performance, with details on their closing prices, trading volumes, daily and weekly changes, and the number of rising and falling stocks [24]. - The latest trading volume was 29,385 billion yuan, and the latest turnover rate was 4.98%. The margin trading balance was 26,806 billion yuan as of January 14, 2026 [25][26]. Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals. The top three sectors in terms of daily net capital inflow were electronics, banks, and basic chemicals. The top three sectors in terms of late - session net capital inflow were electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry [28][30]. - The top three themes in terms of daily increase were advanced packaging, cobalt mines, and lithography machines [30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's foreign exchange reserve reached a new high since December 2015, mainly due to the continuous rise in the trade balance The central bank's gold holdings have been increasing for 14 consecutive months, indicating a trend of diversification of official reserve assets Globally, central banks have been accelerating gold purchases since 2022, and although the purchase volume in 2025 decreased compared to the previous three years, it is still at a high level historically Gold is squeezing the share of the US dollar as a central bank reserve asset [2] - The central bank conducted a 1100 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on January 8, which was an equal - amount hedge of the maturing repurchase and the third consecutive month of equal - amount renewal The central bank quickly reduced the OMO stock at the beginning of the month, and the inter - bank capital price increased slightly while the exchange price decreased slightly [3] 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1 Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserve was $3357.9 billion, a month - on - month increase of $1.15 billion, reaching a new high since December 2015 The gold reserve was 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, with 14 consecutive months of increase [2] - From 2022 to 2024, global central banks had the highest net gold purchases in history, with 1080 tons in 2022, 1050 tons in 2023, and 1089 tons in 2024 In 2025, the purchase volume decreased to 634 tons but remained at a high level compared to historical data [2] 3.2 Central Bank Operations - On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1100 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation to offset the maturing repurchase of the same amount It was the third consecutive month of equal - amount renewal The central bank quickly reduced the OMO stock at the beginning of the month, and the inter - bank capital price increased slightly while the exchange price decreased slightly [3] 3.3 Stock Market Performance - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2854.141 billion yuan, an increase of 47.634 billion yuan from the previous trading day The ChiNext Index rose 0.31% and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.99% [4] - Internationally, the German DAX Index, South Korea's Composite Index, Wind All - A Index, and NASDAQ Index led the gains, with increases of 1.6%, 0.92%, 0.57%, and 0.19% respectively The Hang Seng Tech Index, Nikkei 225 Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average led the losses, with decreases of 1.49%, 1.06%, and 0.94% respectively [4] - The closing yield of the 10 - year China Treasury Bond was 1.8988%, a change of +1.75BP The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3365% and 1.5323% respectively [4] 3.4 Sector Performance - The top - performing sectors were the comprehensive, coal, electronics, and communication sectors, with increases of 3.86%, 2.47%, 1.25%, and 1.24% respectively The underperforming sectors were the petroleum and petrochemical, non - bank finance, beauty care, and computer sectors, with decreases of 1.73%, 1.13%, 1.03%, and 0.81% respectively [4] 3.5 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index closed at 98.7426, up 0.14% The US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 106 basis points [5] - The latest value of the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 1.899, a change of 1.75BP The latest value of DR007 was 1.462, a change of 2.99BP The latest value of the US dollar to offshore RMB was 6.9935, a change of 0.18% The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.74, a change of 0.14% [14] 3.6 A - share Market Overview - The total market capitalization of A - shares was 112.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year The cumulative trading volume this year was 8.28 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2760.361 billion yuan The PE (TTM) was 22.99x and the PB (MRQ) was 6.06x The margin trading balance decreased compared to a month ago [18] - Different A - share indices showed different performances on January 7, with the Wind All - A Index rising 0.19%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.06%, etc [18] 3.7 Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were the comprehensive, coal, and electronics sectors [22] - The top three sectors in terms of daily net inflow of funds were the communication, banking, and light manufacturing sectors The top three sectors in terms of net inflow of funds at the end of the day were the electronics, national defense and military industry, and non - bank finance sectors [24] - The top three themes in terms of increase were semiconductor equipment, lithography machines, and the SMIC industrial chain [24]