世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业稳定，降息暂缓 ——12 月美国非农就业数据点评 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数小幅低预期，失业率也回落至 政府关门前水平，核心服务通胀可控。总的来看，就业慢降温仍是当前美国就业市场的主线， 并不构成美联储需要尽快降息的原因。往前看，1）就业疲软暂无加速迹象，为美联储决策留下 充足空间，我们维持此前对于美联储 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的判断；2）2026 年 5 月美联储 主席换届，特朗普大概率提名鸽派候选人就任，后视经济情况择机再度开启降息可能性较大， 年内预计累计降息至少 50BP。 报告要点 1 [Table_Title 就业稳定，降息暂缓 2] ——12 月美国非农就业数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 1 月 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection industry [13]. Core Insights - The central government has set a target for 2026 to actively resolve local government debt risks, with a focus on replacing hidden debts amounting to 2 trillion yuan in 2025, which has been exceeded by 106.6% [2][6][19]. - The environmental protection sector is expected to benefit significantly from the debt replacement policies, improving cash flow and performance for various companies within the industry [7][23]. - The report highlights that several environmental companies have seen a notable improvement in their accounts receivable, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [9][40]. Summary by Sections Policy and Progress - The National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, with a structured approach of 6 trillion, 4 trillion, and 2 trillion yuan [6][19]. - As of September 2025, the issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 2.31 trillion yuan, with 2.13 trillion yuan specifically allocated for replacing hidden debts, indicating proactive measures by local governments to address existing debt issues [8][27]. Improvement in Accounts Receivable - Companies like Hanlan Environment and Chuangye Environmental have reported significant recoveries in accounts receivable, with Hanlan recovering approximately 1.53 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][39]. - The overall cash flow for the environmental sector has improved, with a year-on-year increase of 31% in operating cash flow net [9][41]. Investment Logic - The report suggests two investment strategies: focusing on sectors with large accounts receivable and low risk, such as waste incineration and water operations, and identifying leading companies in sectors with high government-related receivables [10][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cash flow improvement in the environmental sector due to the ongoing debt replacement policies, which are expected to enhance the repayment capabilities of local governments [42][44].

Core Insights - The report predicts an upcoming adjustment to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in March 2026, with the announcement expected on February 20, 2026, and implementation on March 6, 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Event Description - The adjustment period for the Hang Seng Composite Index ended on December 31, 2025, and the new list of stocks for the Hong Kong Stock Connect will be released shortly [6][7]. Group 2: Potential Stocks for Inclusion - A total of 47 stocks are expected to meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has a significant representation among these potential stocks, including names such as: - **Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology**: 英矽智能, 中慧生物-B, 宝济药业-B, 派格生物医药-B, 劲方医药-B, 轩竹生物-B, 康臣药业, 科济药业-B, 海西新药, 长风药业, 维立志博-B, 林清轩, 歌礼制药-B [7]. - **Software Services**: 经纬天地, 希迪智驾, 卓越睿新, 诺比侃, 赤子城科技, 量化派, 迅策, 聚水潭, 果下科技, 五一视界, HASHKEY HLDGS, 卧安机器人, 滴普科技 [7]. - **Non-Bank Financials**: OSL Group, 耀才证券金融, 轻松健康, 国富量子 [7]. - Other sectors include metals, hardware, banking, automotive, consumer retail, household goods, appliances, machinery, defense, industrial trade, utilities, and medical devices [7]. Group 3: Performance Expectations - Stocks that are about to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are expected to perform strongly. Historical backtesting shows that stocks included in the Connect tend to exhibit significant excess returns before and after their inclusion, particularly with the anticipated continued inflow of southbound capital [8].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 CPI 同比续升、PPI 同比降幅收窄，CPI 环比转正、PPI 环比走阔，是季节性因素、低基 数效应和国际有色金属价格上行等共同作用的结果。往前看：1）年末在季节性效应、金价上行 等拉动下，CPI 同比预计或将继续震荡上行。2）在低基数效应、全球资源涨价、"反内卷"有 序推进等影响下，预计 PPI 同比亦或有望震荡回升。展望 2026Q1，经济的价或能迎来"开门 红"，但更多是低基数、季节性、结构性因素所致，经济的量仍待需求端政策提振，而 2026 年 Q1 稳增长压力较大，关注年初降准降息的可能，以及财政前置的力度。 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 经济的价，能否迎来"开门红"？ ——12 月通胀数据点评 分析师及联系人 [Table_Title 经济的价，能否迎来"开门红"？ 2] ——12 月通胀数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 请阅读 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - On December 30, the company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkou Salt Lake from its controlling shareholder, China Salt Lake Group, for approximately 4.605 billion yuan. After the acquisition, Wenkou Salt Lake will become a subsidiary of the company, consolidating its financials [2][4]. - The acquisition is part of a strategic plan by China Salt Lake Group to optimize and integrate resources, aiming to establish a world-class salt lake industry group by 2030 [10]. - The resource integration is expected to enhance the company's lithium and potassium production capacity significantly, with lithium rights capacity increasing to nearly 70,000 tons LCE and potassium fertilizer capacity rising to approximately 5.15 million tons [10]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in lithium and potassium production, with lithium production costs around 40,000-45,000 yuan per ton LCE and potassium fertilizer costs between 1,200-1,500 yuan per ton, positioning it favorably in the global cost curve [10]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 668 million yuan, 692 million yuan, and 745 million yuan from 2026 to 2028, supported by rising lithium and potassium prices [10]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 15.134 billion yuan in 2024 to 27.389 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding increase in net profit from 4.914 billion yuan to 12.869 billion yuan during the same period [17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.88 yuan in 2024 to 2.28 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [17]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to decrease from 18.68 in 2024 to 12.35 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [17].

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 伴随着创新药企业 A/H 上市和增发充沛资金，二级市场创新药估值重塑和一级退出通道打通带 来中国生物医药投融资生态逐渐走向正循环，创新药对外 BD 涌现为研发投入注入新的资金来 源并拉动行业整体研发投入意愿，中国创新药研发投入景气度或渐趋改善，随之带来创新药产 业链进入新一轮景气周期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 创新链系列——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2025 年 12 月跟踪及全年总结 彭英骐 万梦蝶 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 医疗保健 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 创新链系列2] ——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2025 年 12 月跟踪及全年总结 [Table_Summary2] 2025 年 12 月前瞻性指标趋势 1、IPO 募集资金：2025 年 12 月医药港股 I ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform for marine power systems in China, benefiting from the recovery of the shipbuilding industry and the transition towards clean energy vessels, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][7] - The removal of the 301 policy pressure is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in global shipbuilding orders, with a notable 79% year-on-year increase in December orders [6][21] - The company has been expanding its engine production capacity, with expectations for continued growth in the delivery of low-speed engines and an increase in the proportion of dual-fuel engines, which will further boost profitability [8][72] Summary by Relevant Sections Shipbuilding Industry - The shipbuilding sector is expected to experience an upward turning point as the pressure from the 301 policy is lifted, with a significant increase in new orders and ship prices anticipated [6][17] - The global shipbuilding new orders for 2025 are projected to decline by 24.2% year-on-year, but the removal of the 301 policy is expected to lead to a recovery in orders, particularly for oil tankers, which saw a 284.5% year-on-year increase in November [6][25] - Long-term trends indicate a high proportion of aging vessels, creating substantial demand for vessel replacements and upgrades, driven by stricter environmental regulations [33][37] Company Overview - The company, backed by China Shipbuilding Group, has a significant market share in marine engine orders and is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the shipbuilding sector [7][56] - The company's revenue has been consistently growing, with the diesel power business contributing significantly to its performance, and the gross profit margin for diesel power products has been increasing [58][63] - The company is also focusing on expanding its dual-fuel engine offerings, which are becoming a crucial revenue source as the industry shifts towards cleaner energy solutions [75]

[Table_Title] 从海外燃机厂商跟踪看燃机景气度 联合研究丨专题报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 西门子能源、三菱重工与 GEV 2025Q3 业绩均实现强劲增长，营收、利润、订单等核心经营指 标全面向好，三家企业均顺势上调业绩展望或全年目标，后续增长确定性凸显。从核心业务支 撑来看，三家的燃机主业均呈现良性发展态势，新签订单持续攀升，在手订单储备充裕，有效 支撑营收稳步提升，且区域市场布局各有侧重、优势凸显。作为全球燃气轮机市场的主导力量， 三者合计占据超 70%产能，面对激增的行业需求，正同步推进产能扩张。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 王贺嘉 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUX462 屈奇 杨继虎 杨文建 SAC：S0490524070003 SAC：S0490525040001 SAC：S0490525070003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market decline is due to the constraint of the "impossible triangle," and before the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based opportunity. It is expected that the long - end yield will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The long - end yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2.2% - 2.4%, and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [2][8][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Bond Market's "Impossible Triangle" Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been falling continuously. After the People's Bank of China's unexpected "hawkish" Treasury bond trading operation in November 2025, the market is worried about the carrying pressure of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the supply of ultra - long bonds has become the core contradiction. From early November 2025 to January 7, 2026, the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose by about 20 basis points, and the price of the ultra - long - term Treasury bond futures (TL) fell by nearly 6 yuan. The current market decline is due to the "impossible triangle" constraint, that is, the following three cannot hold simultaneously: fiscal policy continues to lengthen the debt issuance duration, the central bank does not buy long - duration Treasury bonds, and does not change the interest - rate risk sensitivity index restrictions for banks [4][15]. 3.2 Outlook for the People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading Operations in 2026 It is expected that the People's Bank of China will continue to mainly buy short - duration Treasury bonds, maintaining a "high - frequency and small - volume" monthly operation mode, and guiding the market to reduce irrational expectations and excessive attention to this tool. Treasury bond trading will return to a normal and regular liquidity management tool, and its impact on the bond market will be neutral. Overseas experience shows that large - scale purchases of long - term bonds usually occur when the policy rate drops to a very low level or even zero. Since the domestic policy rate still has a 140 - basis - point space, it is too early for unconventional policies. The current Treasury bond trading operations of the Chinese central bank are more similar to Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) rather than Quantitative Easing (QE) [5][19][20]. 3.3 Outlook for Fiscal Debt Issuance Duration in 2026 Theoretically, when interest rates continue to adjust, local governments will shorten the debt issuance duration. However, this process may face two problems. First, it is a slow process for local governments to actively shorten the duration. The proportion of new local bonds in the stock of local bonds is not high, and the increase in interest expenditure caused by long - duration debt issuance is not significant in the short term, so the possibility of local governments significantly shortening the duration in the short term is low. Second, the term arrangement of local government bond issuance has high flexibility, and the Ministry of Finance does not restrict the scale and quantity of long - term local bond issuance. Therefore, the overall duration of local government stock debt is difficult to significantly shorten in a short time [23]. 3.4 Views on Adjusting Banks' Interest - Rate Sensitivity Indicators Although the adjustment of interest - rate sensitivity indicators can increase the bond - allocation capacity of large banks to some extent, the maturity mismatch trend between the asset and liability ends of banks has been deepening in recent years, and the adjustment of indicators is difficult to significantly expand the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds. According to the revision of the regulatory standards for interest - rate risk in the banking book by the Basel Committee in July 2024, the interest - rate parallel upward shock parameter should be lowered from 250BP to 225BP. Based on the data of the six major banks at the end of 2024, this parameter adjustment can release about 1.23% of the indicator space on average, corresponding to about 172.2 billion yuan of Tier - 1 capital. In the scenario of still considering a 250 - basis - point extreme shock and calculating based on the modified duration of 8.35 years of the stock local government bonds, it is expected to add about 824.568 billion yuan of bond - allocation capacity for large banks. However, the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities of banks is still deepening, with the liability side showing a trend of current - account and non - bank deposits, and the asset side showing a long - term trend, so the ability of banks to undertake long - term bonds is still limited [35]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market The bond market still faces the constraint of the "impossible triangle." Before the supply narrative of ultra - long bonds is fully priced, there is no obvious opportunity to bottom - fish in the bond market. The view of a weak and volatile long - end yield is maintained, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond may be further adjusted to 2.4%. After the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity, which may occur in the second half of the first quarter of 2026. At that time, the dynamic balance among fiscal debt issuance rhythm, central bank operation attitude, and bank allocation behavior will be the key to determining the market direction [8][41].