丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 公司研究丨点评报告丨杭州银行（600926.SH） [Table_Title] 机构减持影响有限，价值重估方向清晰 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 杭州银行公告中国人寿拟未来三个月内通过集中竞价或大宗交易的方式减持不超过 0.70%股 份。中国人寿投资杭州银行长达 16 年，持有长期回报丰厚，预计此次减持主要基于自身经营 管理及资产配置需要，对股价影响有限。2024 年 8 月已公告过中国人寿减持计划，通过集中竞 价减持 1%的股份，本次减持的股份是上次减持未完成的部分，规模占比较低，预计对股价影 响有限。杭州银行是银行股的利润增速龙头和资产质量冠军，近期可转债已完成转股，对股价 影响出清，中长期高 ROE 优势可持续，坚定看好价值重估。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 杭州银行（600926.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 机构减 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Business Analysis - The company has completed the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, leading to a significant revenue increase of 57% year-on-year in Q1. This acquisition has reduced the risk of high revenue concentration from a single customer, with the current major customer revenue share dropping to approximately 20% [12]. - The three-piece can business is expected to maintain stable performance, while the two-piece can business shows potential for profit improvement. The company plans to relocate excess production capacity overseas, which may provide opportunities for price recovery in the domestic market [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a robust profit base from the three-piece can segment. The two-piece can production capacity is expected to exceed 25 billion cans, capturing nearly 40% of the market share. The integration with COFCO Packaging is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape in the domestic two-piece can market [12]. - The company aims to drive growth through improved gross margins in the two-piece can segment, expansion into overseas markets, and increased consumption demand domestically [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 9 times [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas manufacturing trend is accelerating, with injection molding machines expected to set a global competitive benchmark for production equipment. In 2024, the import value of injection molding machines is projected to be $437 million, while the export value is expected to reach $2.089 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.652 billion, indicating a trend of acceleration in recent years [3][7][29]. Summary by Sections Global Competitive Landscape - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of injection molding machines, maintaining its position as the leading exporter. In 2023, China's injection molding machine exports amounted to $1.714 billion, with projections for 2024 indicating an increase to $2.089 billion. The trade surplus is expected to expand to $1.652 billion [3][29][51]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for injection molding machines is diversifying, with emerging markets showing significant growth potential. In 2023, China's plastic consumption accounted for approximately 23% of global consumption, indicating substantial room for growth in overseas markets [7][41][43]. Supply Side Changes - The global export landscape for injection molding machines is evolving, with China's competitive edge becoming increasingly prominent. China has maintained its status as the largest exporter of injection molding machines, with other notable exporting countries including Austria, Japan, Germany, and Canada [8][51]. Export Market Opportunities - The report details that exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Russia, Africa, and Oceania are expected to continue growing rapidly, particularly with a projected 105% increase in exports to Southeast Asia by May 2025, which will account for 45% of total exports [3][9]. Leading Companies' Globalization Efforts - Major domestic companies such as Haitian International and Yizumi are accelerating their globalization efforts, with overseas revenues projected to reach 6.016 billion yuan and 1.395 billion yuan respectively in 2024. These companies aim for a 50% export ratio, indicating a significant increase in their global market share [10][12].

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The report primarily discusses industry performance insights based on earnings forecasts, sectoral trends, and historical market reactions to earnings announcements. It does not delve into quantitative modeling or factor analysis.

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 行业研究丨深度报告丨建材 从悍高集团看家居五金成长机会 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 家居五金兼具功能属性和消费属性，且供应链门槛较高，是不容忽视的优质赛道。家居五金涉 及到不同应用场景，竞争格局存在差异：1）收纳五金，主要面向消费者，比拼品牌、渠道。2） 基础五金，主要面向定制和家具企业，比拼渠道、成本、品牌。3）厨卫五金，主要面向消费者， 比拼渠道、品牌、成本，这一市场存在卫浴/家电龙头的品类外延竞争。目前家居五金行业的品 牌龙头稀缺，悍高集团依托设计、渠道逐步建立品牌优势，同时依托智能化生产基地解决五金 产品供应链的难点，品牌认知提升与生产成本下降共振，当前处于成长加速的稀缺阶段。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SFC：BQK473 范超 张佩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 从悍高集团看家居五金成长机会 [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [11][13]. Core Viewpoints - The company operates in three main segments: energy technology services, energy logistics services, and low-carbon environmental and digitalization services. It has shown significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements since its listing, with a steady decline in operating expenses. Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the company's performance has been consistently growing, benefiting from the national seven-year action plan [2][7][46]. - The global potential for offshore oil and gas resources is substantial, with ultra-deepwater being a future trend. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on increased exploration and development efforts in offshore oil and gas, especially as domestic oil companies increase capital expenditures to enhance energy security [8][54]. - The company has a strong correlation between its revenue and profitability with the production activities of CNOOC, demonstrating resilience against oil price fluctuations. The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 35.62%, indicating robust dividend potential as earnings continue to grow [10][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a publicly listed entity controlled by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), focusing on offshore and onshore oil and gas production. It aims to become a world-class energy technology service provider with a Chinese characteristic [7][30]. Business Segments - The company’s business is divided into three main categories: 1. Energy technology services, which have seen rapid revenue growth. 2. Energy logistics services, which are expected to benefit from stable demand for LNG transportation. 3. Low-carbon environmental and digitalization services, which are crucial for sustainable development [9][36][39]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, with energy logistics services contributing 23.210 billion yuan, energy technology services 21.733 billion yuan, and low-carbon services 10.060 billion yuan. The revenue from CNOOC accounted for 61.7% of total revenue [39][42]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 3.656 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% year-on-year increase, supported by a steady rise in operational efficiency and cost management [46][48]. Market Trends - The report highlights the increasing reliance on foreign oil and gas, with crude oil dependency reaching 72.1% and natural gas dependency at 42% by 2024. This trend emphasizes the need for enhanced domestic exploration and production efforts [55][56]. - The company is expected to benefit from CNOOC's stable capital expenditures, which are projected to increase significantly despite fluctuations in oil prices, supporting the overall offshore oil service industry [65][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 1.99% increase in the 28th week of 2025, ranking 14th among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 10.00%, placing it 13th [2][4]. - OpenAI plans to launch an AI browser and open-source a new model, while xAI has released Grok 4 and is initiating a new round of financing to accelerate AI data center construction. The acquisition of Fokexima by Shijia Photon aims to enhance the MPO supply chain [2][5][6][7]. - The current valuation of the communication sector is at a historical low, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 28th week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 1.99%, with a year-to-date rise of 10.00%. The top three gainers among companies with a market cap over 8 billion yuan were Hengbao Co. (+21.1%), Changxin Bochuang (+19.8%), and Shijia Photon (+14.8%). The top three decliners were Runze Technology (-4.1%), Canqin Technology (-3.4%), and Guomai Technology (-3.4%) [4]. AI and Computing Developments - OpenAI is set to release a browser integrated with a generative AI assistant, which could challenge Chrome's market dominance. Additionally, OpenAI will soon unveil an open-source language model, marking its first release since 2019 without Microsoft's involvement [5]. - xAI's Grok 4, touted as the "world's strongest AI," has surpassed doctoral-level performance in standardized tests. The company is preparing for a new financing round valued between 170 billion to 200 billion USD, with participation from Saudi Aramco's PIF fund [6]. Strategic Acquisitions - Shijia Photon plans to acquire 82.4% of Fokexima, a leading supplier of MT connectors, to strengthen its MPO product line. Fokexima's production capacity has exceeded 10 million units per month, and its revenue for 2024 is projected at 270 million yuan, reflecting a 225% year-on-year increase [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in various segments: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Shijia Photon - Domestic computing: Fenghuo Communication, Huafeng Technology, Yingweike, Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, Guangxun Technology, ZTE, Unisplendour - AI applications: Heertai, Tuobang Technology, Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent, Guanghetong, Boshijie, Aojie Technology - Satellite applications: Haige Communication, Huace Navigation [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector saw a significant increase of 3.02% last week, ranking 7th among major industries, with a trading volume accounting for 10.43% of the total market [2][4]. - The report highlights the growing interest in stablecoins and related technologies, particularly in the context of recent regulatory developments in Hong Kong [6][26]. - The launch of xAI's Grok-4, which includes advanced AI capabilities, is expected to drive further innovation in the sector [19][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3500-point mark, closing at 3510.18 points, reflecting a 1.09% increase [12]. - The computer sector's performance was notably strong, with a 3.02% rise, contributing significantly to the overall market dynamics [12]. Key Developments - The report emphasizes the importance of cryptography in the blockchain ecosystem, particularly as stablecoins gain traction [6][32]. - The implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is anticipated to accelerate the development of the stablecoin market, with major companies like JD.com and Ant Group actively participating [6][26]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cryptographic technology reserves and relevant qualifications, especially those linked to the financial industry [6][42]. - It also highlights the potential for investment opportunities in firms that possess the necessary licenses and technological capabilities in blockchain and cryptography [30][42].

港股研究丨公司深度丨现代牧业（1117.HK） [Table_Title] 现代牧业深度报告：现代智牧，奶业长青 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 现代牧业是规模化养殖先行者，数智化转型叠加精细化运营驱动降本增效韧性凸显。现代牧业 作为中国规模化原料奶生产及全产业链运营的龙头企业，其发展历程与战略布局深度锚定乳业 核心环节。原奶供需缺口收紧趋势较为清晰，随着行业去产能的推进和原奶价格的触底回升， 公司有望在 2025 年下半年迎来盈利改善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2/21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 现代牧业（1117.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 现代牧业深度报告：现代智牧，奶业长青 [Table_Summary2] 规模先行者，数智化转型筑就穿越周期的经营韧性 现代牧业是规模化养殖先 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 746 to 798 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.9% to 50.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 105 to 112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% to 47.6%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 89 to 97 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.8% to 58.9% [2][5] - For the second quarter of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 363 to 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% to 63.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 55 to 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.5% to 88.8%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 46 to 53 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 74.6% to 102.7% [2][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company has seen significant revenue growth, particularly in the Sam's Club channel, with new product launches contributing to this increase. The company has introduced a new vegetarian snack and a sour soup chicken snack, with the latter achieving monthly sales of over 100,000 units, ranking in the top three for summer appetizers [11] Profit Margin Improvement - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to cost benefits and economies of scale. The wholesale prices of domestic white strip chicken have decreased year-on-year, and the prices of frozen duck products have also declined. The company expects to maintain stable profit margins in the second half of the year due to continued economies of scale [11] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 230 million, 264 million, and 295 million yuan respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.54, 0.62, and 0.69 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 21, and 19 times at the current stock price [11]