丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） [Table_Title] 产量同比高增，关注 2026 年经营拐点 research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 分析师及联系人 1 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 风险提示 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S04905250800 ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SFC：BUT917 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国化学（601117.SH） [Table_Title] 资产显著低估，关注化工实业弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中国化学化工实业广泛布局，在化工行业反内卷带动景气修复背景下，2026 年实业部门有望贡 献业绩。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中国化学（601117.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 资产显著低估，关注化工实业弹性 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中国化学化工实业广泛布局，在化工行业反内卷带动景气修复背景下，2026 年实业部门有望 贡献业绩。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-01-08 公司研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank] 投资评级 买入丨维持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total electricity generation of 1,269.32 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.32%. The on-grid electricity volume is projected to be 1,258.58 billion kWh, also up by 13.36% year-on-year [6][12] - The water inflow in the Lancang River basin is expected to be 15% higher than the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in electricity generation. The company anticipates a strong performance in the fourth quarter, with a projected electricity generation of 306.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.01% [2][12] - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the full operation of TB Hydropower Station and Huanliangbao Hydropower Station, which will enhance overall efficiency and growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to complete a hydropower generation of 916.49 billion kWh, a 10.35% increase year-on-year, with the fourth quarter alone generating 291.66 billion kWh, up 17.26% year-on-year [2][12] - The company’s overall electricity generation is expected to grow by 13.32% year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow and operational efficiency [6][12] Financial Outlook - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 0.50 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.30, 18.13, and 17.26 [12][16] - The financial performance is expected to benefit from reduced costs and optimized financial expenses, despite potential pressures from market electricity prices [12] Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing diversification by investing in renewable energy and thermal power projects, aiming for sustainable development through a "water-wind-solar integration" approach [12] - The company has increased its renewable energy capacity to 5.96 million kW, a rise of 2.26 million kW compared to the end of 2024 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The Chinese large model industry is transitioning from a "hundred model war" to a tier of leading players by 2025, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax representing different commercialization paths. Both companies are set to IPO in Hong Kong on January 8 and 9, 2026, marking them as the first publicly listed large model companies globally, which serves as a significant industry benchmark [4][19] - The development paradigm of large models is moving into a new phase, shifting from early parameter competition and task performance comparisons to a core focus on a "scene-data-model" positive cycle. The ability to deeply root in real scenarios, provide smoother product experiences, and foster tighter ecological collaboration will determine competitive advantages in the next stage [4][9] Summary by Sections Historical Review: Genetic Differences Determine Commercialization Paths - Zhipu AI, founded in 2019, is one of the earliest companies in China to develop large language models (LLMs) and the first to release a self-developed large model. Its development is characterized by a strong platform thinking and aims to maximize the utilization of its technical assets through an ecosystem of developers [7][20] - MiniMax, established in 2021, has a strong "commercial product" gene, with a team background in gaming and content communities, giving it advantages in user experience (UX), retention rates, and multimodal interactions [7][42] Current Status: Commercialization Progress of Zhipu and MiniMax - Zhipu focuses on general large model capabilities, emphasizing deep integration with enterprise business processes, positioning itself as an "AI infrastructure provider." In contrast, MiniMax aims to productize model capabilities and build a user ecosystem around native AI applications, positioning itself as an "AI native content and interaction platform" [8] - Zhipu's revenue growth relies on deep engagement with B-end clients and long-term partnerships, while MiniMax's commercialization depends on user scale and activity on the C-end, utilizing subscription models and value-added services for monetization [8] Future: Moving Towards a "Scene-Data-Model" Positive Cycle - The key to future development is constructing a closed loop driven by real scene demands, generating high-quality data that continuously feeds back to optimize model capabilities, ultimately serving the scenes more accurately and creating a dual value loop of commercial and technical benefits [9] - Both Zhipu and MiniMax have entered the "scene-data-model" positive cycle, with Zhipu focusing on B-end clients and edge entry points, while MiniMax concentrates on creative content generation and enterprise automation [9]

世界经济与海外市场丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接双宽松 ——美国 2026 年经济展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 特朗普 2.0 关税和移民等政策力度空前，但美国经济并未失速下滑，整体呈现经济韧性较强、 就业弱平衡、通胀温和的特征。展望 2026 年：1）货币政策方面——美国再通胀压力有限，就 业市场弱平衡的背景下，预计美联储将于 2026 年二季度再度开启降息，全年或降息 50BP 左 右；2）财政政策方面——美国 2026 财年赤字率或提升至 7%，主要用于减税、军事和国土安 全领域，财政支出重点在于对家庭、企业部门的减税；3）双宽托举之下，私人消费和 AI 相关 投资或是 2026 年经济增长主力，但由于政策的时滞效应，经济整体或呈前低后高态势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company, Juxing Technology, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 20%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 2.309 to 2.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% to 15.2% [2][6]. - The revenue for the year is expected to remain flat year-on-year, supported by new production capacities in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as significant growth in electric tool products. The company’s high level of internationalization and product innovation efficiency has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profitability, while direct sales through cross-border e-commerce and increased sales of new products have effectively improved gross margins. Looking ahead to 2026, the inventory cycle and new product cycle are expected to resonate, with a high likelihood of an upward trend in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles, indicating a return to faster growth for the company [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 264 to 609 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -28.40% to 65.46%, and a median of 436 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 18.53%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 273 to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -26.38% to 66.69%, and a median of 446 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [6][12]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 2.592 billion yuan in 2025, 3.101 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.720 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times respectively [12]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a recent increase in new orders, which is expected to gradually reflect in revenue. Despite some negative impacts from tariffs on domestic production capacity, overseas production capacity has returned to normal post-Q2, and the additional tariff costs have raised average industry prices, leading to a decline in industry sales [12]. - The electric tool segment is expected to see significant growth, becoming an important growth driver for the company. The company is continuously expanding its product categories and areas, with new products expected to gradually contribute to revenue growth [12]. Industry Outlook - As of January 2, 2026, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.15%, down from 6.18%, which is expected to further stimulate housing demand and promote steady growth in home sales. The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of a rebound in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles [12].

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] Neuralink 将开启大规模量产，脑机接口产业商 业化落地有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 北京时间 1 月 1 日上午，埃隆・马斯克在社交媒体 X 上表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 今年 将开始实现"大规模生产"脑机接口设备，并转向更精简、几乎完全自动化的外科手术流程。 当前时点，以 Neuralink 为代表的脑机接口产业正通过技术突破推动其商业化进展。在其规模 化量产预期和技术突破的催化下，脑机接口产业商业化落地有望加速，惠及全产业链。建议关 注三条主线：1、侵入式脑机接口海外先进产业链的国内映射标的；2、非侵入式脑机接口在消 费场景的产品落地相关标的；3、脑机接口下游应用端相关标的。 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has released the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models, simulation tools, and datasets aimed at advancing the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles. This initiative is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced intelligent driving technologies [2][4]. - The intelligent driving industry is anticipated to benefit from new technologies, leading to accelerated scaling and commercialization, positively impacting the entire industry chain. The report suggests focusing on intelligent driving hardware providers and autonomous driving operation platforms like Robotaxi [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - NVIDIA launched the Alpamayo series on January 5, 2026, to promote the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles [4]. Event Commentary - The Alpamayo model introduces a visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning model for assisted driving decisions, showcasing the logic behind each decision and identifying unique driving situations that may not occur during normal driving. The model is based on a 10 billion parameter architecture, with future models expected to have larger parameter scales and enhanced reasoning capabilities [10]. - NVIDIA also released the open-source simulation framework AlpaSim and a large-scale open dataset containing over 1,700 hours of driving data, which supports high-fidelity autonomous driving development and rapid validation and strategy optimization [10]. - The Alpamayo model has garnered significant attention from leading companies in the mobility sector, such as Lucid, Jaguar Land Rover, and Uber, as well as experts from institutions like S&P Global and Berkeley DeepDrive. The core value of Alpamayo lies in advancing physical AI development and addressing unpredictable driving scenarios [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - In the 53rd week of 2025, the communication sector experienced a decline of 1.26%, ranking 24th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region. However, since the beginning of 2025, the sector has risen by 84.79%, ranking 1st among primary industries [2][5]. - SoftBank Group has made an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI, fulfilling its $40 billion investment commitment, increasing its stake to approximately 11%, making it the second-largest shareholder. This funding will primarily support the expansion of OpenAI's large model training and inference capabilities [6][8]. - Meta Platforms has announced the acquisition of AI Agent startup Manus for over $2 billion, marking its third-largest acquisition in history. Manus has processed over 147 trillion tokens and created more than 80 million virtual computer instances, with a revenue run rate exceeding $125 million as of mid-December 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector's performance in the 53rd week of 2025 showed a decline of 1.26%, while it has increased by 84.79% since the start of the year, leading the primary industries [2][5]. Company Developments - SoftBank's total investment in OpenAI has reached $41 billion, with a focus on enhancing AI capabilities and infrastructure [6]. - Meta's acquisition of Manus is aimed at leveraging AI technology to enhance user engagement across its platforms [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the communication sector, including: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid Cooling: Invec - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The implementation date for the planned increase in tariffs on soft furniture from 25% to 30% and on cabinets and bathroom cabinets from 25% to 50% has been postponed by one year, reducing tariff pressure on furniture manufacturing export companies and alleviating subsequent inflation pressure in the U.S. furniture market [2][4] - The U.S. furniture industry is labor-intensive and heavily reliant on imports, with nearly 70% of imports coming from China, Vietnam, and Mexico. The previous tariff increases did not lead to a significant return of production capacity to the U.S. but rather shifted production to Southeast Asia [11] - The current tariff rates for U.S. furniture categories show that most countries face a 25% tariff, while China faces a 60% tariff on soft furniture and a 45% tariff on other furniture categories [11] - U.S. related companies' stock prices have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in stock prices for RH (up 8%), Wayfair (up 6%), and Williams-Sonoma (up 5%) [11] - The report continues to favor a rate cut chain, focusing on companies with established overseas production capabilities and absolute advantages in products or costs. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to further stimulate demand in the U.S. real estate and furniture markets [11] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The planned tariff increases on soft furniture and cabinets have been postponed to January 1, 2027, which is expected to ease the cost pressures on U.S. furniture manufacturers [2][4] Market Performance - The stock prices of U.S. furniture companies have shown significant rebounds following the tariff postponement, indicating positive market sentiment [11] Demand Recovery - The report anticipates a recovery in U.S. real estate and furniture demand due to the ongoing rate cuts, with potential for significant improvement in housing sales [11]