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服务器及佩套产业链深度:算力浪潮螺旋升,AI时代新机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 12:28
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The server industry is experiencing significant demand growth driven by advancements in technology and the rise of AI, with supernodes and computing clusters being the primary technical directions for AI servers [3][6] - The server hardware architecture is similar to that of ordinary computers, but with higher requirements for performance, stability, security, and scalability [6][14] - The market is segmented into 12 levels based on the capabilities of server manufacturers, influencing their positioning, technological barriers, and profit margins [6][8] - The investment opportunities in the server industry are primarily in areas such as AI chips, storage, SSDs, PCBs, power supplies, and domestic replacements for high-end CPUs and AI chips [8][75] Summary by Sections Server Definition and Functionality - Servers are specialized high-performance computers that provide computing, storage, and networking services to client machines [14][16] - They are essential infrastructure for the IT industry, acting as the core of network systems and responding to service requests from other computers [16][19] Supply Perspective - The server market has evolved through phases, including a shift from self-branded products to customized ODM services, with significant growth driven by domestic replacements and cloud computing [6][8] - The competition in the server industry has transitioned from a focus on technology to a comprehensive comparison of capabilities, with cabinet-level AI server delivery capabilities becoming crucial for high-end competition [6][8] Server Industry Chain Composition - The hardware components of servers include processors, memory, chipsets, I/O components, hard drives, chassis, power supplies, and fans, with CPUs and chipsets, memory, and external storage being the largest cost components [8][19] - The cost structure of AI servers is significantly different, with GPU costs potentially accounting for up to 70% of the total [8][75] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the following areas: 1. Following the overall increase in server, especially AI server, demand 2. Focusing on components with increasing value proportions in AI servers, such as AI chips and storage solutions 3. Domestic replacements for high-end CPUs and AI chips [8][75] AI Server Era - The emergence of AI has led to a surge in demand for AI servers, which require high-performance GPUs and specialized architectures for parallel computing [75][84] - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to exceed $200 billion by 2028, with significant growth driven by investments in AI deployment servers [84][87]
建发合诚(603909):建发协同助力增长,省内基建仍有空间
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 11:12
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [12]. Core Viewpoints - The company, benefiting from the resources of the Jianfa Group, is expected to see stable growth in performance due to strong domestic infrastructure demand and increased land acquisition by its major shareholder [4][10]. - The company focuses on six main business areas: surveying and design, engineering management, testing and inspection, construction, comprehensive maintenance, and engineering materials, leveraging Jianfa Group's resources to expand its construction business [7][22]. - The infrastructure investment in Fujian province is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with significant projects planned for the upcoming years, providing a solid foundation for the company's future performance [8][83]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 1995 and transitioned to a state-owned enterprise in 2021 when Jianfa Group became the controlling shareholder. It has a strong focus on construction and design, with 86% of its revenue derived from construction activities [4][7][20]. Business Performance - The company has seen significant growth in new contracts, with new signed contracts increasing from 29.17 billion to 126.22 billion and then to 55.7 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 183%, 332.7%, and -55.87% respectively [47]. - Revenue has also increased significantly, with reported revenues of 12.61 billion, 39.46 billion, and 66.09 billion from 2022 to 2024, showing growth rates of 49.87%, 212.92%, and 67.49% respectively [47]. Market Outlook - Fujian province's infrastructure investment is projected to remain robust, with a target of 2 trillion yuan in total output by 2025, requiring an annual growth rate of approximately 7.41% to meet this goal [78]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing urban renewal initiatives, which emphasize a "health check before renewal" approach, aligning with its "engineering hospital" concept [45][83]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.29 billion in 2025, with a current market valuation of 18.64 times earnings, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [10].
康农种业(837403):深度报告:密植产品引领本轮品种换代,有望实现突破式成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 08:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a first-time recommendation [11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve breakthrough growth by leading the current variety replacement cycle with its densely planted product, Kangnongyu 8009, which is set for large-scale promotion in the Huanghuaihai region in 2024 [4][7]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 3.37 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, up 55.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by the market expansion of Kangnongyu 8009 [8][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kangnong Seed Industry, established in 2007, focuses on the research, production, and sales of hybrid corn seeds, driven by scientific innovation [8][18]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the chairman holding 51.56% of the shares, indicating strong management expertise [8][18]. Industry Analysis - The corn seed industry in China is currently experiencing a period of variety replacement, supported by national policies aimed at revitalizing the seed industry and reducing homogenization [9][30]. - The introduction of new seed laws and policies since 2021 aims to enhance intellectual property rights and promote innovation, which could lead to improved profit margins for quality enterprises [9][30][47]. Competitive Position - The company has established a significant market presence in the central and southwestern regions of China, with a market share of 5.97% in these areas [10][11]. - Kangnongyu 8009 has been recognized for its high yield and resilience, achieving a second-place ranking in a national corn variety competition with a yield of 1,089 kg per mu [10][11]. Future Development - The company's future growth strategy includes regional expansion and product innovation, leveraging the advantages of its densely planted varieties to increase market penetration [11][18]. - The company is also focusing on high-protein corn products to reduce reliance on imported soybean meal, with several of its corn varieties exceeding the national protein content standard of 11% [11][18].
数字洪流中的定海神针:揭秘稳定币的底层逻辑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 04:44
数字洪流中的定海神针:揭秘稳定币 的底层逻辑 长江证券研究所计算机研究小组 2025-06-20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 宗建树 SAC执业证书编号:S0490520030004 SFC执业证书编号:BUX668 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 引入:稳定币基本概念&分类 02 拆解:主流稳定币运作原理&技术实现 03 当下:为什么稳定币在此刻爆发 04 展望:未来稳定币发展有望提速 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 引入:稳定币基本概念 &分类 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 什么是稳定币?谁可以发行稳定币? 资料来源:香港立法会,长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 5 ➢ 2025年5月21日,香港立法会正式通过《稳定币条例草案》(以下简 称《草案》),为稳定币提供了完整的监管框架。接下来待行政长官 签署并在宪报公布后,文件将正式生效。据香 ...
贱金属浆料进展积极,助力行业降本破局
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 01:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is significant, with 6,147 tons of silver expected to be used in 2024, accounting for 29% of industrial silver and 17% of total silver demand [5][23] - High silver prices, consistently above 8,000 RMB/kg, are pressuring the photovoltaic industry to reduce costs through the adoption of cheaper metal pastes [8][25] - The industry is exploring various pathways to reduce silver usage, including advancements in copper and aluminum pastes, which are expected to gradually scale up production [9][35] Summary by Sections Silver Demand and Pricing - In 2024, the total global silver demand is projected to reach 36,200 tons, with industrial silver at 21,200 tons and photovoltaic silver at 6,147 tons [23] - The cost of silver in conventional TOPCon batteries has reached approximately 0.07 RMB/W, constituting 45% of the non-silicon costs [25][28] Cost Reduction Strategies - The industry is focusing on both process and material optimization to reduce silver usage, with techniques like full-open screen printing and copper plating gaining traction [25][36] - The market share of silver-coated copper pastes in HJT batteries has reached around 75% in 2024, indicating a shift towards cheaper alternatives [35][38] Exploration of Alternative Materials - Copper pastes are being prioritized due to their cost-effectiveness, with copper prices being approximately 1/100th of silver prices [9][40] - Aluminum pastes have previously been used in PERC batteries and are being considered for BC battery structures, where their performance can be optimized without significant efficiency loss [56][59] Technological Advancements and Company Prospects - Companies like 聚和材料 and 帝科股份 are well-positioned to benefit from the transition to cheaper metal pastes, with significant production and financial stability [10][66][73] - The introduction of new technologies, such as laser-assisted sintering, is expected to enhance the efficiency of TOPCon batteries and improve profitability for companies involved [62][64]
港股投资的双面棱镜:IPO新赛道与港股通“入通”策略
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-20 01:10
%% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 投资策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 港股投资的双面棱镜: IPO 新赛道与港股通"入通"策略 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自 2024 年 9 月美的集团实现"A+H"上市以来,港股 IPO 市场显著回暖并呈现强劲复苏态势。 究其原因,2025 年港股 IPO 市场重现火热核心驱动力源于三方面:政策制度红利、港股市场 吸引力提升以及企业内在需求。针对港股 IPO 市场的上市事件,提出两个投资策略:策略一: 关注龙头赴港上市为 A 股带来的机遇。策略二:关注龙头公司上市后的"入通"机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC:S0490524010002 SFC:BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 港股投资的双面棱镜: 2] IPO 新赛道与港股通"入 通"策略 [Table_Summary2] 观市:港股 IPO 火热,赴港上市成新风向 自 2024 年 9 月美的集 ...
债市收益率逼近前低时建议止盈
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-19 13:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market yield is expected to challenge the previous low, but it is difficult to break through. It is recommended to stop profit when approaching the key point. Specifically, it is suggested to allocate 10-year treasury bonds around 1.65% when there is an adjustment, and stop profit appropriately when approaching the key point of 1.6%. From a static perspective, attention can be paid to the allocation value of the 20-year treasury bond yield [2][6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Yield Expected to Challenge the Previous Low - After a long period of credit expansion, the growth rate of social financing may be gradually peaking. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will reach the annual high of about 9.0% from July to August, and then gradually decline to about 8.3% by the end of the year. The issuance of special refinancing bonds has a significant substitution effect on new RMB loans, and there is still about 40 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be issued this year, and its substitution effect on credit is expected to continue for some time [6][12]. - In June this year, the central bank's support brought abundant liquidity and a decline in the short end of the bond market, which made the long-term bonds not adjust deeply, and the bond market often rushes ahead in June. Under the loose capital situation, institutions generally continue the "rushing ahead" strategy of previous years, and the inter-bank leverage ratio has been rising, reaching 108.2% as of June 17. Historical experience shows that the bond market rush - ahead market is often triggered after the cross - quarter capital pressure is released [6][18]. The Previous Low Can Be Challenged but Difficult to Break Through, and It is Recommended to Stop Profit When Approaching the Key Point - The bond market is insensitive to small changes in the fundamentals. Firstly, in the context of high - quality development, the improvement of total factor productivity has increased its contribution to economic growth, reducing the demand for financing in economic growth. Since 2020, the multiple of nominal economy supported by unit social financing has increased from about 3 times to about 4.2 times in 2024. Secondly, considering the bond market valuation, at the current relatively low absolute level, a greater valuation increase is required for the interest rate to decline, making the bond market less sensitive to general weakening of the fundamentals [6][19]. - The restart of treasury bond trading is possible, but the time is not clear, and the probability of restarting when the bond market approaches the previous low may not be high. If the central bank restarts treasury bond trading, referring to the market from December 20 to December 25 last year, the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds can break through 1% at the lowest, which may directly drive the yield of long - term bonds to break below 1.6%, deviating from the current relatively desirable bond market yield level [6][24].
保险基本面梳理107:怎么量化利差损风险?如何给保险估值?-20250619
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-19 13:48
怎么量化利差损风险?如何给保险估值? ——保险基本面梳理107 长江证券研究所非银研究小组 2025-06-19 %% %% %% %% 分析师 吴一凡 分析师 谢宇尘 SAC执业证书编号:S0490519080007 SAC执业证书编号:S0490521020001 SFC执业证书编号:BUV596 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 •证券研究报告• 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 如何判断利差损风险? 02 如何给估值? 目录 %% research.95579.com 3 research.95579.com 1 01 如何判断利差损风险? %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 上市头部负债成本正在改善 2024年负债成本在上升吗? ➢ 上市险企可以使用价值敏感性数据测算打平收益率,代表负债成本。 ➢ 2024年,国寿、太保、新华新单负债成本分别同比改善53bp、52bp和94bp。 ➢ 结论:上市险企新单负债成本正在改善。 测算新单负债成本 测算存量负债成本 2017H 2017 2018H 2018 2019H ...
半导体基石系列之三:自主可控驱动业绩高增+订单兑现,把握设备材料投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-19 13:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [11]. Core Insights - Since early 2025, the semiconductor sector has entered an adjustment period following a surge driven by AI, facing multiple challenges such as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, which have hindered demand growth [4][7]. - Despite these challenges, the report suggests that the valuation pressure on semiconductor equipment and materials is limited, with expectations for improved performance and order fulfillment as domestic wafer manufacturing capabilities enhance [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor sector has transitioned from a valuation-driven logic to one focused on performance, with dynamic P/E ratios reflecting a normalization to mid-2024 levels [4][21]. - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are currently undervalued compared to the broader semiconductor sector, with dynamic P/E ratios at 12.5% and 63.2% percentile points respectively [4][21]. Industry Growth Drivers - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, with semiconductor equipment and materials expected to see sales growth rates of 7.7% and 8% respectively [8][29]. - The domestic demand for semiconductor equipment remains strong, driven by local foundries' expansion and the potential for domestic companies to capture market share from foreign competitors [8][47]. Company-Specific Insights - In the equipment sector, companies like North Huachuang are noted for their stable growth and market leadership, while firms in niche segments like Zhongke Feicai and Xinyuanwei are highlighted for their potential breakthroughs [9]. - In the materials sector, companies such as Anji Technology and Xingfu Electronics are recognized for successfully replacing domestic products and expanding into overseas markets [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the domestic semiconductor industry will continue to grow, with significant opportunities for local companies to replace foreign products and expand their market presence [8][47]. - The ongoing development of new production lines and technologies by leading domestic firms is expected to further enhance their competitive positioning in the global market [66].
侵入式脑机接口临床试验成功,我国脑机接口进入新阶段
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-19 11:28
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The successful completion of China's first invasive brain-computer interface (BCI) clinical trial marks the country as the second globally to enter this stage, following the United States [2][5] - The stock price of Regenative Medicine (RGC) surged by 283.12% to $60 on June 16, indicating strong market interest in BCI technology [2][5] - The BCI medical application market is projected to reach between $40 billion and $145 billion globally by 2030 to 2040, with China's market expected to grow from 3.2 billion yuan in 2024 to over 5.5 billion yuan by 2027 [5] Summary by Sections Event Description - The first invasive BCI clinical trial in China was conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Fudan University, demonstrating significant advancements in BCI technology [5] - The trial involved a male subject who regained control over a computer touchpad after 2-3 weeks of training, showcasing the potential of BCI technology for improving the quality of life for patients with spinal cord injuries and amputations [5] Market Dynamics - The rapid progress in overseas BCI technology has garnered significant market attention, with companies like Neuralink and Regenative Medicine leading advancements [5] - The BCI market is expected to expand rapidly, driven by technological breakthroughs in medical rehabilitation [5] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. Domestic mapping of advanced overseas invasive BCI industry chains 2. Non-invasive BCI products in consumer scenarios 3. Downstream application targets related to BCI technology [5]