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AI 系列跟踪(83):DeepSeek-V3.2 正式发布,可灵 AI 视频 O1 模型全量上新
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 06:07
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] AI 系列跟踪(83):DeepSeek-V3.2 正式发 布,可灵 AI 视频 O1 模型全量上新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 1 日,DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版和 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 发布,DeepSeek-V3.2 大幅 强化 Agent 能力,DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 主打极致推理性能。同日,可灵 AI 视频 O1 模型 正式上线,其核心亮点在于统一底座、全能指令和强大一致性。在 AI 细分赛道中,我们看好: 1)优质 IP 或受益于 AI 技术演进带来的创作效率和变现价值提升,看好受益于多模态加速的 AI 漫剧赛道;2)具备流量&模型&数据优势的互联网大厂;3)海外已跑通商业模式,国内有望 复制(广告、电商、教育等)的垂直赛道;4)AI+游戏厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490516080001 SFC:BUX177 高超 朱子愉 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 12 月 1 日,DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版和 ...
氢能周度观察:从中国能建招标看制氢电解槽发展现状-20251203
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 02:32
展现状 联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察:从中国能建招标看制氢电解槽发 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周我们关注制氢装备。中国能建 2025 年度制氢设备集中采购中标结果出炉,连续三年披露 候选名单。我国制氢装备今年迎来爆发式增长,1-9 月国内订单总量超 4.1GW,且有多笔 GW 级别的大单;碱性电解槽技术为主导;竞争格局尚未稳定。行业协会发布电解槽行业健康发展 倡议书,引导产业从价格竞争走向质量提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC:S0490517090001 SAC:S0490520080002 SAC:S0490520070003 SFC:BUV415 SFC:BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC:S0490524080004 SAC:S0490525070006 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 8 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 氢能周度观察:从中国能建招标看制氢电 ...
泰胜风能(300129):公司研究|点评报告|泰胜风能(300129.SZ):泰胜风能(300129):泰胜风能:Q3交付景气向上,盈利能力同比改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 00:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 220 million yuan, up 45% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9%, and the net profit reached about 100 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 395% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company's revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase, primarily benefiting from an increase in shipment volume [11]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was approximately 13.4%, reflecting an improvement year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year and an increase in order delivery prices. The expense ratio for Q3 was about 6.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the dilution effect from increased revenue [11]. Order Backlog - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had inventory and contract liabilities of approximately 2.3 billion yuan and 600 million yuan, respectively, both at historical highs. The total executing and pending orders amounted to about 4.77 billion yuan, with land-based wind power equipment orders at approximately 3.56 billion yuan and offshore wind power orders at about 1.19 billion yuan [11]. Future Outlook - The company is actively developing its offshore wind base in Yangzhou, which is expected to capitalize on domestic and international offshore wind opportunities, enhancing performance growth potential. Additionally, the company is advancing into new business areas such as commercial aerospace, which may open up a second growth curve [11]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 330 million yuan and 450 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of about 21 times and 16 times [11].
派能科技(688063):派能科技2025Q3业绩点评:动储出货延续高增,毛利环比继续改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 00:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.013 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, up 28.05% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit decreased by 31.40% year-on-year to -17 million yuan [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 863 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 94.01% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 34.84%. The non-recurring net profit turned positive at 9 million yuan, but decreased by 71.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s total revenue was 2.013 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.05%. The non-recurring net profit was -17 million yuan, down 31.40% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue reached 863 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 56.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, up 94.01% year-on-year but down 34.84% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 9 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses but a decline of 71.1% from the previous quarter [2][4]. Market and Operational Insights - The company’s sales volume for energy storage and power business in Q3 was 1.078 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 156.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.29%. The energy storage segment is expected to benefit from recovering demand in the European market and expansion into emerging markets in Southeast Asia and South America [12]. - The company’s sodium-ion battery sales exceeded 100 MWh, and shared battery swap sales surpassed 400 MWh in the first three quarters. The improvement in capacity utilization has led to a continuous increase in gross margin, which was 21.09% in Q3, up 0.48 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 120 million yuan and 380 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The fundamental turning point for the company has been established, with expectations for overseas commercial storage and emerging market household storage to gradually contribute to growth [6][12].
科华数据(002335):科华数据2025Q3业绩点评:新能源海外收入高增,加大研发布局AIDC出海
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-03 00:44
[Table_Summary] 公司 2025 前三季度营业收入 57.06 亿元,同比增加 5.79%;归母净利润 3.44 亿元,同比增加 44.71%;扣非净利润 3.00 亿元,同比增加 36.85%。单季度看,公司 2025Q3 营业收入 19.73 亿元,同比增加 18.65%,环比下降 21.59%;归母净利润 1.01 亿元,同比增加 711.41%,环 比下降 42.17%;扣非净利润 0.77 亿元,同比增加 423.44%,环比下降 52.86%。 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨科华数据(002335.SZ) [Table_Title] 科华数据 2025Q3 业绩点评:新能源海外收 入高增,加大研发布局 AIDC 出海 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于海宁 曹海花 司鸿历 SAC:S0490514040001 SAC:S0490517110002 SAC:S0490522030001 SAC:S0490520080002 SFC:BQK482 SFC:BUX641 SFC:BVD284 请阅读最后评级说明和重 ...
重庆打造低空经济发展强市,关注低空经济产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-02 09:59
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Chongqing aims to become a strong city for low-altitude economic development, supported by a new policy document that includes 17 measures across three areas to foster innovation and growth in the low-altitude economy [2][4][9] - The low-altitude economy is expected to drive the entire industry chain, with upstream focusing on raw materials and core components, midstream on drones and supporting equipment, and downstream on aviation management and information technology [2][9] - The market size of China's low-altitude economy is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [9] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The policy measures include four demand-side initiatives to create low-altitude demonstration scenarios, seven supply-side initiatives to support industrial innovation, and six measures to enhance the low-altitude security system [9] - This policy follows previous initiatives aimed at managing low-altitude airspace and identifying application scenarios, indicating a comprehensive approach to developing the low-altitude economy in Chongqing [9] Industry Development - The report notes that multiple regions in China are forming low-altitude industry clusters, with significant progress in areas like Xinjiang, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and the Yangtze River Delta [9] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from pilot demonstrations to large-scale implementation, with emerging business models in drone logistics, passenger travel, and low-altitude tourism [9] Market Outlook - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a strategic emerging industry in China, with rapid development and a shift from equipment technology catch-up to leading positions in certain areas [9] - The report suggests focusing on the entire low-altitude economy supply chain, particularly in aviation information technology and air traffic management sectors [9]
聚焦全国一体化数据市场建设,关注数据要素产业投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-02 09:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [8]. Core Insights - The National Data Bureau is focusing on building an open, shared, and secure national integrated data market, which is expected to enhance the value of data elements and invigorate the market [2][5]. - The construction of the national integrated data market is anticipated to accelerate data circulation and trading, leading to a reassessment of data element value across the entire industry chain [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive data market to address structural issues such as incomplete industry chains and immature circulation mechanisms [10]. - The market size for data trading in China is projected to grow from 211.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 284.09 billion yuan in 2025, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 20.3% reaching over 715.9 billion yuan by 2030 [10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that 53% of projects in the 2025 "Data Element ×" competition utilized public data, with over 43% acquiring data through authorized operation models [10]. - More than 50% of the final projects in the competition engaged in direct data trading, indicating a growing trend in data transactions among enterprises [10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with vast data resources and those with strong capabilities in data processing, management, and analysis as potential investment opportunities [10].
北京加速布局太空数据中心,关注太空算力产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-02 09:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - Beijing is accelerating the construction of space data centers, aiming to operate large-scale data center systems with over 1 GW of power in the 700-800 km dawn-dusk orbit to facilitate the transfer of large-scale AI computing power to space [2][4][6] - The importance of computing power as a fundamental infrastructure for industries like AI is increasingly recognized, with space computing power expected to become a significant component due to its energy (solar) and cooling advantages [2][6] - Breakthroughs in aerospace technology are anticipated to significantly reduce transportation costs, thereby accelerating the development of the space computing power industry [2][6] Summary by Sections Event Description - On November 27, a meeting was held in Beijing to discuss the construction of space data centers, with plans to build and operate large-scale data center systems in the 700-800 km orbit [4] Industry Development - The construction of space data centers is planned in three phases: 1. From 2025 to 2027, focus on key technologies for energy and cooling, and the development of the first computing satellite constellation to achieve "sky-based computing" applications 2. From 2028 to 2030, breakthroughs in on-orbit assembly and construction technologies to lower costs and build the second computing satellite constellation for "ground-based computing" applications 3. From 2031 to 2035, mass production and network launch of satellites to establish a large-scale space data center supporting future "sky-based main computing" [12] Project Progress - Multiple projects are underway, including the "Star Computing" plan by Guoxing Aerospace, which aims to launch 2,800 computing satellites with a total computing power of 100,000 P per second [12] - The "Three-body Computing Constellation" by Zhijiang Laboratory has already launched 12 satellites, with a total computing power of 5 POPS, expected to reach 1,000 POPS upon completion [12] Cost Reduction Potential - Reusable rocket technology is expected to break through, significantly reducing launch costs. For instance, SpaceX's Falcon 9 has achieved a 72% reduction in launch costs through rocket recovery [12] - Predictions suggest that with the maturation of reusable rocket technology, the cost of commercial space transportation in China could drop below 30,000 yuan per kilogram, compared to around 100,000 yuan for traditional rockets [12]
——建材周专题2025W48:关注玻璃冷修预期,重视消费建材优质龙头
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-02 09:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - Focus on the expectation of glass cold repairs and emphasize high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has slightly decreased month-on-month [7][8] - The real estate policy outlook is improving, suggesting a focus on high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have continued to decline, with a current average price of 355.00 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 77.10 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The cement market is entering the off-season, with a national shipment rate of approximately 45%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7][26] - The northern market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, while some southern regions show slight recovery [7][25] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices have stabilized after a decline, with a current average price of 60.59 yuan/weight box, down 0.59 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 15.51 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 218 out of 283 production lines currently in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 156,155 tons [8][36] - Inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased, with a total inventory of 59.32 million weight boxes, down 730,000 weight boxes month-on-month [38][39] Consumer Building Materials - High-quality leading companies in consumer building materials are expected to have bottom value, with recommendations for companies like SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials [6] - From a cyclical bottom and structural optimization perspective, companies in waterproofing and coatings are recommended due to significant supply exits and increased market share for leading companies [6] - If market conditions improve, the expected price performance ranking is waterproofing > coatings > pipes/hardware/gypsum board [6] Special Fabrics - Attention is drawn to the opportunities in AI special fabrics after recent adjustments, with domestic leaders like ZhongCai Technology benefiting from domestic substitution trends [9]
通信行业周观点:谷歌嵌套学习架构革新,Claude Opus4.5高性价比-20251202
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-02 09:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw an increase of 8.71% in the 48th week of 2025, ranking first among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 64.42%, also ranking first [2][4]. - Google's introduction of the Nested Learning theory and HOPE architecture significantly enhances long-term memory and reasoning efficiency, addressing the memory bottlenecks of traditional Transformers in long sequences, which can greatly reduce training and inference costs [5][7]. - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 has achieved state-of-the-art performance in software engineering, with aggressive pricing strategies that lower input and output costs by 67%, while also integrating deeply with existing office workflows [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector's performance in the 48th week of 2025 was highlighted, with notable individual stock performances, including Guangku Technology (+39.2%), Tongyu Communication (+39.1%), and Taicheng Light (+22.3%) [4]. Technological Advancements - Google's Nested Learning paradigm optimizes memory processes by breaking down large models into nested sub-optimization problems, enhancing memory management and reducing inference costs [5]. - The HOPE architecture, based on this theory, separates high-frequency and low-frequency memory tasks, improving efficiency in long-sequence processing [5]. Product Launches - Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 supports a context window of approximately 200k and has outperformed competitors in software engineering tasks, with a significant reduction in usage costs for enterprises [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various segments, including: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication, Canqin Technology [7].