Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the lithium battery materials sector, indicating a potential turning point for the upstream materials market after several years of rapid growth in downstream demand [3][11]. Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience strong growth, with projected demand for power and energy storage batteries increasing by 30% by 2026, and energy storage batteries seeing growth rates of 40%-50% [6][30]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by the needs of power and energy storage sectors, which will also boost the demand for phosphate rock [7][30]. - The report highlights specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, including Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng Co., Yuntu Holdings, Wanhua Chemical, Longbai Group, and others in various segments of the lithium battery materials market [3][11]. Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Market - The demand for power and energy storage batteries is projected to grow significantly, with the domestic commercial vehicle market reaching a price parity point, and the penetration rate for passenger vehicles still having room for growth [6][30]. - The report notes that the domestic monthly penetration rate for electric vehicles has stabilized around 55%, with an upward trend in EV market share driven by new models with larger battery capacities [6][30]. Positive Materials - Phosphate rock is expected to see a revaluation of its value, with demand driven by the agricultural sector and the growing needs of the lithium battery industry [7][32]. - The report indicates that the supply of phosphate rock is likely to remain balanced, with limited expansion in overseas production and domestic projects falling short of expectations [7][38]. Industrial Grade Monoammonium Phosphate - The industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate sector is experiencing a tight supply situation, with leading companies performing well despite a low nominal operating rate due to many firms lacking suitable phosphate resources [7][40]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate will improve as demand continues to grow and supply constraints remain [7][40]. Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has seen significant increases due to unexpected demand from energy storage and commercial vehicles, with a tight supply expected to continue until 2027 [10][30]. - The report suggests that the expansion cycle for lithium hexafluorophosphate production will take approximately 1.5 years, indicating ongoing supply constraints [10][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investment in companies involved in phosphate rock, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, highlighting specific firms that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [3][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - In November, the company delivered 70,327 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. This marks a new historical high for the company [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong domestic new car cycle, which will drive continuous sales growth. Additionally, the collaboration with Stellantis will facilitate a light-asset overseas expansion, opening up global sales opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The cumulative sales from January to November reached 536,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 113.4%, surpassing the annual target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [6][7]. Product Launches - The company officially launched the Lafa5 model on November 27, priced between 97,800 to 121,800 CNY, continuing its strategy of offering high value for price [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant growth in sales and profitability due to a robust new car cycle and an expanding product matrix. The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 630 million, 5.01 billion, and 8.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 108.7X, 13.8X, and 8.2X [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company has established over 700 sales and service points across approximately 30 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, with a significant presence in Europe [6][7]. Technological Investment - The company has increased its investment in intelligent driving, with a nearly 100% increase in team size and computational resources in the first half of 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that Wushang Group's acquisition of Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance the technological empowerment of traditional retail formats and improve long-term competitiveness [10][13] - The acquisition involves a shareholding range of 70%-100%, with the final transaction price to be determined in formal agreements [2][6] - Hangzhou Xiaodian specializes in shared charging, storage lockers, smart travel, and smart energy services, creating a nationwide high-frequency offline traffic perception network [13] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of digital transformation among retail enterprises, focusing on improving operational efficiency of existing stores [13] Summary by Sections Event Description - Wushang Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wuhan Jiangtun Smart Technology Co., Ltd., signed an intention agreement to acquire Hangzhou Xiaodian Technology, aiming for industry integration and capital cooperation [2][6] Event Commentary - The acquisition is expected to integrate Xiaodian's extensive offline traffic network and digital capabilities, addressing challenges in traffic conversion and intelligent management, thereby reconstructing the "people-goods-scene" ecosystem [13] - Retail companies are increasingly focusing on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency, with examples from Tianhong and Chongqing Department Store showcasing successful digital initiatives [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that enhancing operational management efficiency is essential for long-term competitiveness in the labor-intensive retail sector [13] - The industry is transitioning from rapid expansion to a phase of stable growth and market competition, which will test companies' product strength and refined operational capabilities [13]

Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket is expected to accelerate the development of commercial aerospace in China, with 2027-2028 projected as a pivotal year for the industry [2][10] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, designed for large constellation networking tasks, demonstrates significant capabilities including a reusable design and a payload capacity of no less than 18 tons for near-Earth orbit [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure changes among downstream operators, as well as focusing on the related industrial chains of Shanghai Yuanxin and Zhuque-3 [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 3, 2025, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace efforts [4] Event Commentary - The Zhuque-3 rocket is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, and reusable launch vehicle, which is expected to support major national aerospace projects and satellite internet deployment [10] - The report highlights the stable and reliable performance of the rocket during its flight, although there was an issue with the vertical recovery attempt of the first stage [10] - The rapid development of commercial aerospace in China is anticipated, with a focus on the advancements in large thrust reusable rockets by private enterprises and research institutions [10]

Market Performance - The overall market rebounded with a notable performance in technology growth sectors, with the Jiangsu Growth Momentum Index rising over 9% weekly[2] - The Jiangsu Momentum Index saw a weekly increase of nearly 10%, indicating a return of growth hotspots in Q3 2025[2] Trading Activity - Weekly trading volume for the entire A-share market has decreased compared to Q3 2025, despite the recovery in growth sectors[2] - The small and micro-cap stocks outperformed the broader market, showing a synchronized increase in trading activity[2] Sector Analysis - The telecommunications and information technology sectors led the weekly gains, with significant rebounds observed in these areas[5] - The performance of the Jiangsu specialized and innovative index was notably strong, reflecting positive market sentiment[5] Investor Sentiment - The trading heat of the small and micro-cap indices has continued to recover, indicating improved market sentiment[5] - Institutional investors experienced a rebound in their holdings, with all major fund indices showing positive weekly returns[5] Style Tracking - The momentum index demonstrated impressive weekly performance, with the Jiangsu Growth Momentum Index showing a rebound of 9.11%[36] - The growth style indices, particularly in small and micro-cap categories, exhibited strong weekly increases, highlighting a shift in investor preference towards growth stocks[36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the central bank had a net 7 - day reverse repurchase fund withdrawal, a treasury cash fixed - deposit injection of 12 billion yuan, and an MLF operation of 100 billion yuan. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale decreased compared to the previous week, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yields rose slightly, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. On November 28, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.08 years respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan. From November 24 - 28, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16.42 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 12 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan. From December 1 - 5, 2025, 151.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In total, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases in November was 50 billion yuan, and the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, with the combined net injection scale remaining stable month - on - month. In December, the maturity scales of 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases are 100 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively, and 30 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6]. - The overall funds situation was loose. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.39% respectively, down 11.7 and 10.1 basis points compared to November 17 - 21; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.46% and 1.53% respectively, down 3.5 basis points and up 1.0 basis point compared to November 17 - 21. On the 28th, the weighted average rate of DR001 was closer to 1.30% and broke through 1.30% intraday [7]. - The net government bond financing scale decreased. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale was about 32.89 billion yuan, about 8.17 billion yuan less than November 17 - 23, including about 3.91 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 28.98 billion yuan of net local government bond financing. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected net government bond payment scale is 8.66 billion yuan, including about - 5 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 13.66 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Most NCD maturity yields rose slightly. As of November 28, 2025, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields were 1.4450% and 1.5750% respectively, down 4.5 basis points and up 0.2 basis points compared to November 21; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was 1.6400%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 21 [8]. - The net NCD financing amount remained negative. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net NCD financing amount was about - 24.25 billion yuan, compared to about - 37.4 billion yuan from November 17 - 23. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected NCD maturity repayment amount is 44.88 billion yuan, with a significantly reduced roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. The NCD maturity scale in December is about 3.7 trillion yuan, which is relatively high [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared to 107.15% from November 17 - 21. On November 28 and 21, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.02% and 107.31% respectively [9]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally. On November 28, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 3.68 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 60.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, down 0.08 years week - on - week, at the 23.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

[Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：DeepSeek-V3.2 正式版发布，关 注大模型商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 1 日，DeepSeek-V3.2 和 DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale 正式发布。官方网页端、App 和 API 均已更新为 V3.2 版本。Speciale 版本目前仅以临时 API 服务形式开放，以供社区评测与研 究。相比 Exp 版本， V3.2 实现了高计算效率与卓越推理、Agent 性能的统一，同时支持在思 考和非思考模式下使用工具。2025 年 DeepSeek 已发布 7 款模型，开源阵营持续扩大。后续 展望来看，关注 AI 产品发布超预期情况与 AI Agent 落地进展。继续看好国产 AI 链、国产算力 链以及国内 AI 出海，持续重点推荐铲子股和卡位优势显著的巨头本身。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后 ...