www.leadleo.com 中国AI床垫行业调研简报 | 2025/08 报告标签：AI床垫、技术密集、市场扩张 2025年8月 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 1 头豹调研简报 | 2025/08 AI床垫行业 Q1：作为创新型的床垫产品，AI床垫与传统弹簧床垫相比有何异同？ ◼ AI床垫在功能体验方面相较于传统弹簧床垫优势明显 AI床垫是一种融合睡眠科学与人工智能、物联网等智能技术的创新床垫产品，通过内置AI算法与传感系统，能够 智能识别人体的体型和睡姿并实时采集用户睡眠数据，以实现床垫软硬度、支撑性、温度等参数的自动调整，部 分还能联动灯光、空调等其他 ...

家居家装行业正迎来从"智能产品"到"智慧生活"的价值重构。从AI床垫的健康陪伴到智能门锁的主动安防，技术正驱动产品从功能满足跃升为情感连接。而 整家解决方案与睡眠文化IP的兴起，更标志着竞争核心已转向生活方式提案。当家居不再只是物件，而是可感知的生活伙伴，品牌如何才能真正走进用户的 情感深处？ 赋予睡眠以探索感、疗愈力与社交趣味；而全友敏锐捕捉Z世代"空间即人设"的自我表达诉求，以高饱和流行色、模块化组合及风格多元产品，使家居不再 是被动陈设，而是个性态度与生活审美的主动宣言。品牌通过解决方案升级、精准营销触达、情感个性赋能，推动家居行业向更贴合用户需求的方向进阶， 也为消费者构建了更多元的家居生活新生态。 榜单说明 | ã 0 0 排名 | | 品塑 | 综合热度 3 指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01) | | 慕思 | 1.79 | ▲ 4 | | 02 | 水星家纺 | 水星家纺 | 1.75 | NEW | | 03) | | 全友 | 1.65 | ▲ 7 | | 04 | | 直家 | 1.64 | - | | 05 | JOMOO | 九牧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the AI revolution is a significant competition that will impact national fortunes, highlighting the rapid advancements and implications of AI technology in various sectors [2][22]. Group 1: AI Development History - The concept of artificial intelligence was first introduced in 1956 at the Dartmouth Conference, marking the beginning of a long journey in AI research [11]. - Key milestones include the introduction of deep learning by Geoffrey Hinton in 2006 and the launch of GPT-3.5 in 2022, which significantly advanced AI capabilities [17][18]. - The article notes that AI has now entered everyday life and industries, with significant developments in China and the U.S. [18][19]. Group 2: AI Investment Landscape - By 2025, the U.S. is expected to invest over $350 billion in AI infrastructure, while China’s investment is projected to reach 630 billion RMB [41]. - The article highlights that the U.S. currently dominates AI computing power, holding 74.5% of global capacity, compared to China's 14% [43]. - The investment in AI infrastructure in China is compared to the historical investment in high-speed rail, indicating a significant commitment to AI development [41]. Group 3: AI Applications and Innovations - The article discusses the emergence of AI in various industries, including banking, where Shanghai Bank has become the first AI-native mobile bank [75]. - It highlights the rapid growth of AI-driven content production, such as AI-generated comics, which have seen a 600% increase in production [67]. - The use of AI in sectors like healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing is emphasized, showcasing its transformative potential [78][81]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The article outlines the competitive dynamics between the U.S. and China in AI, with both countries pursuing different strategies: the U.S. focusing on closed-source models and China on open-source models [54][55]. - It mentions that by 2025, over 80% of the world's large models will be developed in the U.S. and China, with significant advancements in image generation and text capabilities [46][49]. - The competition extends to autonomous driving, with both countries making strides in developing self-driving technologies [57]. Group 5: Future Trends and Predictions - The article predicts that the next decade will see the emergence of four trillion-dollar markets in China, including the robotics sector, which is expected to play a crucial role in manufacturing upgrades [118][120]. - It discusses the potential for AI to redefine personal capabilities and the importance of adapting to new technologies in various industries [72][98]. - The article concludes with a call for recognition of the ongoing AI revolution and its implications for the future [58].

近日，银河证券发布了家居/包装/玩具行业2026年度策略报告。银河证券指出，受第三季度"国补"退坡影响，家居板 块业绩整体承压，其中相比定制家居，软体家居行业呈现更高的韧性。展望未来，定制家居：全品类+全球化，需求 承压背景下龙头公司积极自救，第四季度国补回归有望拉动下游需求进一步修复；软体家居：各公司AI产品布局进一 步提速。以AI床垫产品为例，预计智能床垫市场规模在2030年将达近600亿元，2020—2030年复合增速达15%，拉动 行业天花板持续向上。 A股成品家居行业中，恒林股份、梦百合、匠心家居、致欧科技等个股有5家以上机构评级且机构一致预测2026年及 2027年净利增速均超20%。从ESG综合得分角度来看，恒林股份最新得分创出历史新高，达到8.53分，高居行业第 一。 在今年半年报中，恒林股份表示，公司积极响应"双碳"战略和全球绿色发展倡议，将环保理念深度融入产品设计与材 料应用，广泛采用环保可降解材料与天然再生面料，引领家居行业迈向低碳、美学与功能并重的可持续新时代。面向 未来，公司将继续以科技为笔、舒适为魂、环保为心，为全球用户打造智慧、绿色、充满幸福感的理想家居生活。 （文章来源：证券时 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The new consumption growth opportunities are expected to differ significantly from the previous cycle (2016-2019), with a focus on AI-driven consumption, emotional value, global brand expansion, and experiential upgrades [1] - The overall weak recovery of domestic demand is anticipated to be influenced by both economic and policy cycles, with a projected recovery in consumption starting in 2026 [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of structural policy changes to enhance consumer spending capacity and promote new consumption formats [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Sub-sector Trends - Xiaomi Group is positioned to benefit from the systemic opportunities in the domestic smartphone market due to talent loss at Apple [10] - The pet food market is experiencing a shift towards new product formats like "fresh steamed grain," which saw significant sales growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival [13] - AI and 3D printing are emerging as key areas for growth, with educational applications expected to drive demand [18][19] 2. Macro Consumption Data Tracking - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with a notable rise in service sector prices [30] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [30] 3. Long-term Consumption Themes - The report identifies four main themes for future consumption growth: AI-driven consumption, emotional value in new services, structural upgrades in consumption, and the silver economy [1][16] - The silver economy is highlighted as a significant growth area, with policies increasingly focusing on the needs of the aging population [16] 4. Market Performance - The pet food market's gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 3.1 billion yuan in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [48] - Sales of Stanley products on Amazon showed substantial growth, particularly in the U.S. market, with a year-on-year increase of 168.73% in November [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's new implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on collaborative efforts between supply and demand sides to stimulate consumption potential and drive economic growth [3][5]. Group 1: Implementation Plan Overview - On November 26, six government departments released a plan with 19 key tasks to enhance supply-demand adaptability, focusing on expanding new markets, exploring existing markets, segmenting markets, empowering scenarios, and optimizing the environment [3][5]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from a one-sided consumption stimulation model to a collaborative approach, addressing structural contradictions in consumption and promoting high-quality economic development [3][5]. Group 2: Market Insights and Data - As of now, China has a total of 230 million consumer goods varieties, with over 100 categories like home appliances and furniture leading global production [5]. - The plan aims to create three trillion-yuan-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on areas such as elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [8][9]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Needs - The plan highlights the need for supply to match diverse consumer demands, particularly for different age groups and lifestyles, indicating a shift from quantity expansion to structural optimization in the consumer market [11][12]. - The elderly population in China is projected to reach 310 million by the end of 2024, with the elderly goods market expected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [12]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in consumer goods, aiming to enhance precision in supply and demand matching through AI applications across the industry [14][17]. - AI is expected to transform traditional supply methods into personalized manufacturing, allowing for rapid and flexible production that meets evolving consumer preferences [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The light industry in China is expected to benefit from favorable policies since 2025, providing solid support for healthy industry development. The home furnishing sector is particularly focused on the catalytic effect of national subsidies on company performance, while the overall industry demand is under pressure during the downturn cycle, leading to historically low valuations, although there are investment opportunities in specific segments [1]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector has been impacted by the reduction of national subsidies in Q3, resulting in overall performance pressure. However, the soft home furnishing industry shows greater resilience compared to custom home furnishing. Looking ahead, the return of national subsidies in Q4 is expected to further stimulate downstream demand [2]. - Custom home furnishing companies are actively seeking self-rescue strategies amid demand pressure, while the soft home furnishing sector is accelerating AI product development, with the smart mattress market projected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2030 [2]. Packaging - The competitive landscape in the packaging industry is improving, with the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin leading to a near 80% market share among the top three players in the two-piece can packaging sector. Historical data shows that after the last round of industry consolidation (2017-2019), the industry's gross profit margin rebounded to over 10% [3]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in average prices by 2026, which will enhance the profitability of leading companies. In the flexible packaging segment, leading companies are expanding their client base and diversifying their business to include higher-margin products, thus creating a second growth curve [3]. Toys - The toy market in China is projected to reach 165.5 billion yuan by 2028, capturing 16.7% of the global toy market share. The rise of Generation Z and the growing "self-pleasure" culture are driving the expansion of artistic IPs, such as the Pop Mart The Monster series, which are gaining international influence [4]. - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenues for Pop Mart and Blokus increased by 440% and 895% year-on-year, respectively, with strong performance in Southeast Asian markets, indicating a rapid acceleration in cultural export and new opportunities in the trendy toy industry [4].

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preemptive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [2][8] - The focus for 2026 will be on the liquidity turning point's impact on asset rotation, with a gradual shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental trend-driven asset logic in domestic markets [8][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation trends as a tactical timing cue for investment strategies, suggesting a balanced allocation between equities and bonds in the first quarter of 2026 [8][11] Group 2: Industry Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand growth and external potential release, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements [2][15] - The young manufacturing industry is highlighted for its global supply chain opportunities, emphasizing the irreversible trend of globalization and the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [3][14] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including defense, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, driven by government policies and market demand [15][16] Group 3: Economic and Market Outlook - Economic demand is expected to stabilize and recover in 2026, with PPI bottoming out and turning positive, leading to a rotation in industry styles from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - The report predicts that the overall market will see a recovery in corporate earnings, particularly in sectors benefiting from the recovery of industrial product inflation [11][12] - The analysis indicates that the current valuation of cyclical consumer assets remains below historical averages, suggesting potential for future appreciation [12][13]

Core Insights - The article discusses how Chinese companies are seizing opportunities in the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, enhancing their independent innovation capabilities and striving for high-quality development [9] Group 1: Chihong Zinc and Germanium - Chihong Zinc and Germanium has transformed from a small mine into one of the world's most comprehensive companies in lead-zinc smelting and resource recovery [21] - The company focuses on "technological innovation, resource security, green low-carbon, and high-end transformation" to enhance traditional industries through intelligent upgrades and strategic extensions into high-value new materials [23] - Chihong Zinc and Germanium has achieved a significant increase in metal recovery rates and reduced smelting costs for zinc products for six consecutive years [21][22] Group 2: Haon Automotive Electronics - Haon Automotive Electronics has become a leader in intelligent perception technology, collaborating with major automotive manufacturers and AI giants [10][12] - The company aims to transition from a "follower" to a "technology leader" through strategic upgrades in its R&D center [17] - In the first half of this year, Haon Automotive Electronics held a market share of 27.3% in the domestic ultrasonic radar supplier market [15] Group 3: Mousse Co., Ltd. - Mousse Co., Ltd. has embraced AI technology since 2015, resulting in a revenue of 121 million yuan from AI products in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of over three times [11][39] - The company has transitioned from a traditional mattress seller to a promoter of healthy sleep culture, focusing on AI and brand expansion [42] - Mousse has invested significantly in R&D, with expenditures rising from 74 million yuan in 2019 to 205 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% [38]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 37.61 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.67 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3% and 11% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27% [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue decline in the first three quarters was primarily driven by a decrease in sales of certain product categories, although Q3 showed improvement due to growth in bed-related products, particularly mattresses [2] - Gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points in Q3, while net profit margin and adjusted net profit margin decreased by 3.4 and 4.0 percentage points respectively [2] Product and Brand Strategy - The company has focused on enhancing its product offerings through systematic sales, popular product development, and smart technology integration, which has increased the sales of high-end products [3] - The number of specialty stores decreased by approximately 100 to 5,300 in H1 2025, indicating a strategic optimization of retail channels [3] Strategic Trends - The company is prioritizing AI mattresses and globalization as key strategic focuses, with AI product revenue in H1 2025 reaching 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over three times [4] - The company has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Huawei to develop smart sleep ecosystems and launched the Hongmeng Smart Mousse Bed, enhancing the cost-performance ratio of smart beds [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 90% in 2024, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 6.8 billion, 7.2 billion, and 8.0 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 16, and 14 [5]