证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 喜临门(603008) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 喜临门：AI 床垫增长显著，线上渠道表现靓 丽 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] 销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率分别为 21.11%/4.07%/2.10%（同比 +1.46pct/-1.19pct/+0.04pct）。公司经营稳健性依旧，截至 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Mousse Co., Ltd. regarding the repurchase and cancellation of shares has led to a significant drop in the public shareholding ratio, putting the company at risk of delisting. To address this, the company proposed a capital reserve plan to increase its share capital, aiming to restore compliance with listing requirements [2][3][4]. Share Repurchase and Compliance Issues - The company initially planned to repurchase shares for employee stock incentives but later changed the purpose to direct cancellation to boost investor confidence. This change led to a failure to meet the listing conditions due to the different timelines for cancellation [5][6]. - Following the cancellation of 4.266 million shares, the total share capital fell below 400 million shares, resulting in a public shareholding ratio of 19.11%, which is below the required 25% for listing [5][6]. Capital Increase Proposal - To resolve the compliance issue, the company proposed a plan to increase its share capital by 10% through a capital reserve distribution, which would raise the total share capital to 435 million shares, thus meeting the listing requirements [7]. - The board has approved this proposal, which will be submitted for shareholder approval on August 13, 2025 [7]. Financial Performance and Market Position - Mousse Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 5.603 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.43% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.36% to 767 million yuan [10][11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.66% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 16.43% [10][11]. - The company is facing pressure from a significant upcoming share unlock event in December 2025, which could lead to increased selling pressure on the stock [9]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the declining performance, the company has outlined a strategy focusing on health sleep products, AI innovations, and international market expansion [10]. - The company plans to enhance its product offerings with AI mattresses and expand its distribution channels, including new markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, as well as leveraging emerging e-commerce platforms [10].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI technology in elderly care is transforming the landscape of healthcare in Hong Kong, making "smart aging" a reality and injecting new vitality into the medical technology industry [1][4]. Group 1: AI Empowerment in Elderly Care - The 16th Hong Kong International Medical and Healthcare Exhibition showcased around 300 exhibitors from 13 countries, presenting innovative AI-powered products for elderly care, such as AI rehabilitation systems and portable AI diagnostic tools [1][2]. - The elderly population in Hong Kong is projected to reach 23.9% by 2024, highlighting the urgent need for technology to support and enhance the quality of life for seniors [1][4]. Group 2: Innovative Products and Technologies - A wearable exoskeleton robot designed based on the principle of neural plasticity allows individuals with severe mobility impairments to regain the ability to walk through AI-driven gait training [2]. - AI-driven solutions include a VR eye-tracking device for cognitive impairment assessment, a smart mattress that monitors pressure distribution to predict bedsores, and a portable detection device for non-invasive health checks [3][4]. Group 3: Future of Elderly Care - The Hong Kong government anticipates that by 2043, seniors aged 65 and above will constitute over one-third of the population, necessitating advancements in elder care technology [4]. - Innovations such as smart nursing beds equipped with sensors to monitor vital signs and assist with patient mobility are being developed to enhance the dignity and care of the elderly [4][5].

Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 0.43% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 5.603 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 4.36% to 767 million yuan [1][3] - The company's dual strategy of high-end and intelligent products is showing initial success, particularly in the mattress segment, which saw a revenue increase of 3.78% [1][4] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with traditional competitors expanding their product lines and tech companies entering the smart home market, posing new challenges for the company [1][2] Financial Performance - The revenue growth rate of 0.43% is significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of over 15% from 2017 to 2021, indicating a growth bottleneck since reaching a peak of 6.481 billion yuan in 2021 [3] - The gross margin remained stable at approximately 49.63%, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability despite rising costs in the furniture manufacturing sector [3][5] - Operating cash flow decreased by 43.63% to 1.091 billion yuan, highlighting challenges in cash management amid increased outflows [5] Product and Sales Channel Analysis - The core product, mattresses, accounted for 47.81% of total revenue, indicating strong resilience in this category, while other product lines like bed frames and bedding saw declines [4] - E-commerce sales grew by 6.04% to 1.093 billion yuan, now representing 19.51% of total revenue, showcasing the importance of online channels for growth [4] - The company is focusing on digital transformation in its distribution channels, facing challenges in balancing online and offline interests [2] International Expansion - The company made significant strides in international markets, with overseas revenue increasing by 61.07% to 155 million yuan, although it still represents only 2.77% of total revenue [4] - The acquisition of the Maxcoil brand has opened doors to Southeast Asian markets, but cultural integration and supply chain coordination remain complex challenges [1][4] Research and Development - R&D investment reached 205 million yuan in 2024, a 10.51% increase, representing 3.66% of total revenue, which is significantly higher than the industry average [7][8] - The company has focused its R&D efforts on smart sleep, health monitoring, and material innovation, with 60% of R&D spending directed towards smart and health monitoring technologies [8] - The company has established a strong position in the smart sleep segment, with new product launches and a high customer repurchase rate for smart products [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness through product innovation, operational efficiency, and brand upgrading, demonstrating resilience and potential for high-quality development despite adverse external conditions [1][2] - The company has achieved stable performance in its mattress segment, with revenue of 2.679 billion and a gross margin of 61.4% in 2024, indicating a solid product lineup [2] - The company is expanding its overseas presence and optimizing its channel strategy, including the acquisition of a Singaporean home brand to enhance its market competitiveness in Southeast Asia [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.121 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, and a net profit of 118 million, down 16.4% [1] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.603 billion, a slight increase of 0.4%, with a net profit of 767 million, down 4.4% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net margin was 13.7%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] Product and Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its product matrix through the iteration of traditional and smart products, targeting young consumers and revitalizing existing customer demand [2] - The introduction of AI mattresses at the CES exhibition in the US has garnered international recognition, showcasing the company's commitment to smart sleep solutions [3] Channel and Operational Strategy - The company reported a revenue of 4.153 billion from distribution channels, a slight decrease of 0.3%, while e-commerce revenue increased by 6.0% to 1.093 billion [4] - The company is optimizing its traditional store network and enhancing its online marketing strategies to improve sales conversion rates [4] Profit Forecast Adjustment - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect ongoing operational pressures, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 800 million, 870 million, and 930 million respectively [5]

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is expected to become a significant node in the AI industry chain, with various sub-sectors such as eyewear and toys already implementing AI applications. Companies deeply involved in the AI supply chain are likely to benefit from future industry growth [9][3]. - Specific sub-sectors benefiting from AI include eyewear, mattresses, sports, and toys, which are recommended for investment focus [3][9]. Summary by Sections AI Eyewear - AI eyewear is entering a product explosion phase, with significant market response to products like Ray Ban Meta, which achieved a quarterly sales volume of 680,000 units in Q4 2024. Global sales of AI eyewear are projected to reach 1.5 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 533% [17][20]. - The market for AI eyewear is dominated by models with cameras, accounting for 94% of sales, primarily driven by the success of Ray Ban Meta [21][23]. - The cost structure of AI eyewear shows that lenses and frames account for about 8% of the total cost, with potential for significant value enhancement through advanced technologies [28][29]. AI Mattresses - AI mattresses integrate AI technology to monitor sleep data and adjust firmness and support based on user needs, addressing the growing sleep issues in modern society. The global market for AI mattresses was approximately $1.7 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 5.6% from 2024 to 2030 [44][46]. - The market is still in its early stages, with intense competition and a focus on consumer education to enhance awareness and acceptance of AI mattress technology [48][50]. AI Sports and Fitness - The AI sports fitness market is characterized by two business models: one targeting consumers through apps and equipment, and the other targeting gyms with AI fitness devices. The market is expected to grow rapidly, with the Chinese smart fitness market projected to reach 82 billion yuan by 2025 [65][66]. - The penetration of AI fitness solutions is low but growing, with significant potential for expansion as consumer awareness increases and technology becomes more accessible [63][66].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company, as a leading player in the mattress industry, is expected to benefit from the current home furnishing subsidies, which are likely to enhance industry demand and improve market dynamics. The company's retail transformation and marketing strategy optimization are anticipated to broaden its customer base and increase market share [2][4][8]. Industry Overview - The mattress industry is characterized by low concentration and is projected to reach approximately 79 billion yuan in 2024, nearly matching the scale of 2018. The market share of the company is estimated to be around 6% in 2023, with a trend of increasing share. The overall concentration of the mattress industry (CR4) is about 19% in 2023, compared to 45% in the U.S. in 2020, indicating room for growth [4][16][21]. Company Profile - The company is a mid-to-high-end mattress brand, focusing on a comprehensive range of sleep-related products. In the first half of 2024, the revenue breakdown is expected to be 47% from mattresses, 30% from bed frames, 8% from sofas, and 6% from bedding products. The company operates through four main divisions, each targeting specific market segments [5][42][45]. Retail Transformation - The company is enhancing its retail strategy by broadening its price range and optimizing channel management. The main price range for mattresses is between 6,000 to 15,000 yuan offline and 3,000 to 5,000 yuan online. The company is also focusing on multi-channel strategies to capture traffic, with e-commerce revenue growth of 29% in 2023 and 35% in the first half of 2024 [6][52][59]. Product Innovation - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, particularly in smart mattresses, which have seen sales exceed 100 million yuan in 2024. The penetration rate of smart mattresses in China remains low, suggesting significant growth potential [6][41]. International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international growth opportunities through cross-border e-commerce and acquisitions of overseas brands, which are expected to contribute to its revenue growth [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 5.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 800 million yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% and 30% respectively since 2018. The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 810 million yuan and 890 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1% and 10% respectively [5][59].