报告日期：2025 年 05 月 13 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 13 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商汽车 刘巍】翔楼新材（301160）公司深度：国内精密冲压材料龙头，大力推进谐波柔轮材料国产替代—— 20250511 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：5 月 12 日上证指数上涨 0.82%，沪深 300 上涨 1.16%，科创 50 上涨 0.49%，中证 1000 上涨 1.4%，创业板 指上涨 2.63%，恒生指数上涨 2.98%。 行业：5 月 12 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+4.8%)、电力设备（+2.69%)、机械设备（+2.24%)、非银金融 （+2.08%)、汽车（+1.91%)，表现最差的行业分别是农林牧渔（-0.49%)、医药生物（-0.27%)、公用事业（-0.26%)、 美容护理（-0.04%)、煤炭（+0.05%)。 资金：5 月 12 日全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the ODM refrigerator export market in China, and it is expected to benefit from the continued export boom in the refrigerator industry, which may drive its performance beyond expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The market anticipates that the company will experience rapid growth in 2024 due to the refrigerator export wave, but growth may slow significantly in 2025 due to factors such as the completion of overseas inventory replenishment and tariff pressures in North America [2] - In Q1, China's refrigerator export volume increased by 11.8% year-on-year, and export value rose by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating strong overseas demand [3] Regional Market Insights - The company primarily exports to Europe and emerging markets, which are expected to continue benefiting from strong demand. Specifically, exports to Europe grew by 7% year-on-year in Q1, while exports to Latin America surged by 43% year-on-year [3] - The company's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, accounting for less than 5% of total revenue, thus insulating it from North American tariff and demand fluctuations [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 204.04 billion, 223.44 billion, and 241.08 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.13%, 9.50%, and 7.90% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 11.47 billion, 12.73 billion, and 13.90 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 12.56%, 10.96%, and 9.19% [4][5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.06, 1.17, and 1.28 CNY, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10X, 9X, and 8X, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading refrigerator exporter [4][5]

Core Insights - The logic behind the steepening of the government bond yield curve may change following the recent Sino-US Geneva joint statement, suggesting that short-term adjustments could further open up long-term bond betting opportunities. Investors are advised to remain patient and focus on mid-to-short duration bonds during this phase [1][2][17]. Understanding the Sino-US Joint Statement - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, which indicates a significant reduction in tariffs beyond market expectations. The US will split its 34% reciprocal tariff into two parts, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff while suspending the remaining 24% for 90 days. This results in a substantial decrease from the peak tariff rate of 145% during previous negotiations [1][9][10]. - The establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism is aimed at facilitating ongoing discussions regarding economic and trade relations, which could help manage trade friction and pave the way for further tariff reductions [10][11]. Changes in Bond Yield Curve Logic - The overall direction of the steepening of the bond yield curve remains unchanged, but the internal logic may experience some shifts. Following the central bank's "double reduction" policy, short-term interest rates have significantly decreased, positively impacting the short-term bond market [2][15][17]. - For long-term bonds, the easing of trade tensions may shift market sentiment from profit-taking to increased risk appetite, as evidenced by a 6.25 basis point rise in the 30-year bond yield to 1.905% on May 12 [2][16][17]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to maintain a concentrated position in mid-to-short duration bonds during this adjustment period, utilizing a "reverse triangle" strategy for building positions [2][17].

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index for the week ending May 10 is 5.4%, a slight decline from the revised value of 5.7% from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index decreased to 7.5% from 8.0%, while the service industry index fell to 3.7% from 4.1%[12] Production Sector - Overall, high-frequency indicators for the service and industrial sectors have shown a slight decline compared to the previous week[13] - The average daily output of pig iron from key enterprises remained relatively stable, while the operating rate of full-steel tires in the automotive sector decreased compared to the same period in previous years[13] Demand Trends - The consumption high-frequency index dropped to 3.9% from 5.1%, reflecting a decrease in consumer activity as holiday effects dissipate[12] - The total area of commercial housing transactions in 30 major cities fell to 152.8 million square meters, a 12% decrease from the previous week[53] Export Performance - Container throughput increased to 671.2 thousand TEUs from 629.7 thousand TEUs, indicating resilience in exports despite tariff impacts[60] - Cumulative year-on-year growth in container throughput since the beginning of 2025 is 9.38%, slightly down from 9.57%[60] Price Trends - Marginal pressure on prices was observed this week, with the agricultural product wholesale price index showing a decrease of 0.8%[12] - The overall price of production materials also experienced a slight decline, indicating potential challenges in the demand side recovery[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 22.50% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is a leading domestic producer of specialty surfactants, with a production capacity of nearly 300,000 tons per year, and is expected to see long-term growth driven by the commissioning of its new factory [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, and a net profit of 398 million yuan, up 22.50% year-on-year. The average return on equity was 13.66%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.09%, and the net profit was 112 million yuan, up 24.61% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.47%, and the net profit was 102 million yuan, up 15.77% year-on-year [1][2] Growth Drivers - The company's growth is primarily driven by its focus on high-margin specialty products, including wet electronic chemicals and UV curing surfactants, which have seen significant sales increases [2] - The company has developed a systematic operational framework around its product segments, which supports sustainable development and continuous innovation [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 491 million yuan in 2025, 589 million yuan in 2026, and 697 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The new factory, with a total approved capacity of 330,000 tons per year, is anticipated to begin trial production in the first half of 2026, further enhancing the company's growth potential [3][4]

Group 1: Trade Tariff Changes - The overall tariff level imposed by the U.S. on China will decrease from 145% to approximately 30% within the next 90 days[1] - The current U.S. tariffs consist of a 20% fentanyl tariff and a 34% "reciprocal tariff," which will be reduced to 10% in the next 90 days[2] - The U.S. has committed to canceling an additional 91% retaliatory tariffs imposed since April 8, 2025, while China will also eliminate corresponding retaliatory measures[3] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's GDP is estimated to be around -1%, with a potential reduction in exports by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB based on a 30% tariff level[3] - The future trajectory of the fentanyl tariff may see gradual reductions, as discussions on this issue were highlighted in recent negotiations[4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is expected to stabilize above 10% after the initial 90-day period, reflecting ongoing trade deficit concerns[5] - The necessity for significant counter-cyclical policy adjustments in China is expected to decrease, with a positive outlook for technology stocks due to improved market risk appetite[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in 2024, with revenue of 3.693 billion yuan, down 14.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 246 million yuan, down 67.72% year-on-year [2][10] - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced orders for zeolite series environmental materials and a downturn in the pharmaceutical product segment due to changing customer demands [2][9] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expected to benefit from the growth of OLED materials, polyimide materials, and semiconductor manufacturing materials, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3][10] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.46 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 39.81% [2][12] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 9.31 billion yuan, down 17.62% year-on-year, and the net profit turned negative at -0.50 billion yuan [1][2] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, down 8.17% year-on-year, but a net profit of 0.80 billion yuan, reflecting a significant sequential increase [1][2] Segment Performance - Functional materials generated revenue of 30.19 billion yuan in 2024, down 10.30% year-on-year, while the life sciences and pharmaceutical products segment saw revenue of 6.29 billion yuan, down 28.65% year-on-year [2] - The OLED materials segment is growing steadily, with a revenue increase of 31.43% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.43 billion yuan [3] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 388 million yuan, 485 million yuan, and 605 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.52, and 0.65 yuan [10][12] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 26.57, 21.21, and 17.00, indicating a favorable valuation trend [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 43% to 11.59 million yuan [1] - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net loss of 140 million yuan, primarily due to cyclical fluctuations in traditional equipment business and challenges in the new energy battery shell business [1][2] - The battery shell business revenue in 2024 grew by 51% year-on-year, continuing a trend of over 50% growth for three consecutive years, with plans to expand production capacity in the U.S. [2] - The company is on the verge of mass production of humanoid robots, with significant demand expected in the manufacturing and domestic service sectors, potentially reaching 2.1 million units by 2030 [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.886 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 127 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 530 million yuan, up 55% year-on-year; net profit was 11.59 million yuan, down 43% [1] - 2024 revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, down 8%; net loss was 140 million yuan [1] - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.886 billion, 2.343 billion, and 2.880 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 127 million, 162 million, and 209 million yuan [5] Business Segments - The battery shell business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a 51% year-on-year growth in 2024 [2] - The company is developing a new production line for harmonic reducers, which are critical components for humanoid robots, indicating a new growth avenue [3] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 76, 59, and 46 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see profit growth in 2025, driven by the recovery of bidding processes and management optimization, despite a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025 due to high base effects and previous bidding impacts [1][2] - The company's revenue is projected to recover in H2 2025, with significant growth anticipated in its core business segments of medical devices and pharmaceutical equipment [2][3] - The company has a strong patent portfolio, which provides a competitive edge and supports the growth of new products, leading to higher profit margins in its core segments [3] - International expansion is showing positive results, with overseas revenue increasing by 16.5% in 2024, indicating potential for long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.021 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.692 billion yuan, up 5.75% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue decline of 3.63% and a net profit decrease of 0.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.308 billion yuan, down 8.74% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.160 billion yuan, down 23.97% year-on-year [1] Growth Potential - The company has shifted focus towards its core business, with medical devices' revenue share increasing from 22% to 37% from 2018 to 2024, and pharmaceutical equipment's share rising from 8% to 22% [2] - The anticipated recovery in bidding processes and the introduction of new products are expected to drive significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, particularly in H2 [2][3] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 26.1%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.9%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.8%, down 0.89 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin was 6.99%, down 1.51 percentage points year-on-year [5] Forecast and Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 10.679 billion yuan, 11.672 billion yuan, and 12.787 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.57%, 9.30%, and 9.56% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 0.790 billion yuan, 0.927 billion yuan, and 1.083 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14.16%, 17.43%, and 16.84% respectively [6][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The fifth "It Expo" held from May 7 to 11, 2025, in Shanghai showcased a significant increase in exhibition area and participating brands, indicating sustained high demand in the pet food sector [1][12] - The trend of market concentration continues, with fewer new brands emerging, primarily focusing on international brands entering the domestic market [2][21] - Baked pet food remains a key product direction, with sales in Q1 2025 reaching 258 million, a year-on-year increase of 94%, accounting for 14.48% of the market [2][29] - The competition in the baked food segment is intensifying, leading to increased product differentiation and innovation among leading companies [3][40] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more refined product offerings beyond baked food, focusing on specific functionalities and concepts [4][43] Summary by Sections 1. Expo Scale and Market Trends - The 2025 "It Expo" featured over 10,000 square meters of exhibition space and more than 8,000 participating brands, doubling from the previous year [12] - The pet food industry growth rate was 9% in 2024, with a notable decline in investment activities for smaller companies [21] 2. Product & R&D Innovations - Baked food is a product of traditional puffed food technology upgrades, offering higher nutritional value and meat content [26] - The sales of baked food have surged, with a 313% increase in sales volume and a 338% increase in product variety in 2023 [29] - Leading companies are innovating in baked food products, introducing unique formulations aimed at enhancing pet health [40][43] 3. Marketing & Channel Strategies - The online sales penetration rate for pet food reached 65.9% by 2023, with significant growth in platforms like Douyin [54] - The expo has become a crucial marketing node, with leading companies focusing on online sales strategies rather than traditional distribution [59] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of strong R&D capabilities among leading companies, recommending investments in firms like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. for their innovative product developments [5][60]