Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is undergoing a clearing process, with leading companies recovering profitability [2][3] - The overall performance of the chain pharmacy sector is expected to improve in 2025, with a recovery in valuations observed in Q1 2025 [11] - The market is witnessing a shift towards a higher proportion of franchise stores, indicating a trend towards asset-light expansion models [24][29] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chain pharmacy sector is experiencing accelerated store closures and slowed openings, with a significant increase in the proportion of franchise stores from 9% in 2020 to 28% in Q1 2025 [24][29] - The market is expected to see a continued increase in the market share of leading companies due to industry consolidation [30] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, leading companies are expected to see a significant recovery in net profit margins, following a period of adjustment in 2024 [35] - The overall revenue growth rate for the pharmacy sector has declined significantly in 2024, but a recovery in profit growth is anticipated in 2025 due to improved consumer spending and the implementation of coordinated healthcare policies [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading pharmacy companies with superior management capabilities and quick category adjustments to mitigate the downward pressure on industry profitability. Specific recommendations include Dazhenglin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, with a focus on Yixin Hall, Jianzhijia, and Shuyupingmin [4][58]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 哑铃策略占优 核心观点 我们认为在短期市场弹性上升的背景下，考虑到转债市场相关的潜在风险释放压力， 继续投资者继续采取稳健与成长兼具的哑铃配置策略，具体关注内需刺激受益与新质 生产力板块。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日，下同）大部分转债指数上涨，其中可转债可选 消费行业指数，AA-及以下评级转债、可转债高价指数、小盘转债指数领涨。估 值方面，平衡性、股性估值压缩。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅上升到 120.60 元，处在 2017 年以来的 81.26%水平。 虽然近期市场整体弹性上升，但是未来一个月左右的时间我们认为市场或许更加 关注基本面，其原因主要在于；首先，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要 落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而非成长预期；其次，评级公司也将会 在年报披露完毕后，集中对转债进行评级展望，届时或将继续有相关转债的评级 有被下调的可能性；最后，海外关税风险冲击国内风险偏好与基本面。以上几个 方面将对市场风格带来影响，市场大概率将会倾向于基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's annual and quarterly performance met expectations, with continuous growth driven by its main business in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on fan economy and deepening its engagement in vertical markets such as celebrity copyright books [1] - The "Publishing + Internet" strategy is showing initial success, with significant growth in user numbers and internet product accounts [1] - The company is actively developing its second growth curve through the animated film "The Three Kingdoms: The Starry Sky," expected to be released in 2025 [7] - The company is making notable progress in AI applications, particularly with its AI proofreading product [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 582.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, and a net profit of 40.83 million yuan, a decrease of 23.87% [9] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 806.14 million yuan, 974.98 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 38.48%, 20.94%, and 28.06% respectively [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 138.35 million yuan in 2025, 135.64 million yuan in 2026, and 200.68 million yuan in 2027 [9] - The estimated P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.33, 25.84, and 17.47 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's annual and quarterly performance met expectations, with continuous growth driven by its main business in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on fan economy and deepening its engagement in vertical markets such as celebrity copyright books [1] - The "Publishing + Internet" strategy is showing initial success, with significant growth in user numbers and internet product accounts [1] - The company is actively developing its second growth curve through the animated film "The Three Kingdoms: The Starry Sky," expected to be released in 2025 [7] - The company is making notable progress in AI applications, particularly with its AI proofreading product [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 582.15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.76%, and a net profit of 40.83 million yuan, a decrease of 23.87% [9] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 806.14 million yuan, 974.98 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 38.48%, 20.94%, and 28.06% [9] - The company anticipates net profits of 138.35 million yuan in 2025, 135.64 million yuan in 2026, and 200.68 million yuan in 2027 [9] - The estimated P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 25.33, 25.84, and 17.47, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The second quarter is recommended for the traditional Chinese medicine sector, with expectations for a performance turning point despite significant pressure in the first quarter [3][10] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is anticipated to see a recovery in performance due to improved inventory levels and profitability, alongside favorable conditions from U.S. tariff policies [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Quarterly Report Overview - The first quarter faced substantial pressure, but nearly half of the companies (31) achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders after excluding non-recurring items, with 18 companies reporting revenue growth [13][14] - Companies such as Jia Ying Pharmaceutical and Te Yi Pharmaceutical reported significant revenue growth of 28.8% and 79.3%, respectively, driven by channel expansion and marketing reforms [14] 2. Core Indicator Tracking - Inventory levels have decreased, leading to sustained improvements in profitability [18] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector's valuation is currently below the average since 2021, indicating potential for recovery [24] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong brand power and potential for margin improvement are recommended for aggressive investment, including Dong E E Jiao, Tong Ren Tang, and Pian Zai Huang [10][18] - Defensive investments are suggested in stable dividend-paying assets such as Yunnan Baiyao and Ling Rui Pharmaceutical [10][18] - The sector's overall valuation is low, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.00x as of May 9, 2025, which is below the average since 2021 [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, driven by the strong performance of its vintage raw liquor series, which has seen both volume and price increases [2][3] - The company aims to continue its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 235.78 billion (up 16.41%) and a net profit of 55.17 billion (up 20.22%). Q1 2025 revenue was 91.46 billion (up 10.38%) with a net profit of 23.30 billion (up 12.78%) [8] - The vintage raw liquor series contributed significantly to revenue growth, with sales volume increasing by 11.99% and average price per ton rising by 4.75% [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company operates multiple brands and flavor types, including ancient well tribute liquor, Yellow Crane Tower, and others, with a focus on both local and national markets [2] - The company plans to implement a "three-channel project" to enhance sales, reduce inventory, and stabilize prices [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue growth is projected to be 12% in 2025 and 11% in 2026, with net profit growth also adjusted to 12% for both years. The EPS for 2025-2027 is forecasted at 11.71, 13.13, and 14.87 respectively [3][4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a "positive" outlook for the sector [2][54]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in commercial volume and profit improvement, driven by strong performance in the innovative drug sector from January 2, 2024, to April 30, 2025, with significant stock price increases for various companies [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing policy-driven growth and global revaluation of the innovative drug industry, supported by favorable domestic policies and international competitiveness [4][31]. Summary by Sections Review: Commercial Volume and Profit Improvement - Stock prices are primarily driven by performance and clinical data, with notable increases in A-share and H-share biotech companies [4][14]. - R&D investment for 32 sample innovative drug companies reached 67.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.23% [4][18]. - The sales and R&D expense ratios for 22 sample innovative drug companies have been continuously optimized, leading to improved profit expectations for companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [4][25]. - The total product sales revenue for 17 commercialized innovative drug companies reached 91.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 35% year-on-year growth [4][30]. Outlook: Policy-Driven Global Revaluation - The report discusses the domestic policy framework that supports the innovative drug sector, including the establishment of a drug pricing mechanism and the implementation of supportive measures for innovative drug development [4][39]. - The international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is highlighted, with significant licensing deals and collaborations indicating a strong global presence [4][41]. Investment Strategy: Profitability + Internationalization + Major Products - The report recommends focusing on companies with potential for major product sales, such as Zebrutinib, which is expected to exceed 2.6 billion USD in sales in 2024 [5][48]. - It emphasizes the potential for global pricing of assets and the expected profitability improvements for companies like Innovent Biologics and Honor Pharma [5][48]. - The report suggests that the innovative drug sector is entering a phase of accelerated revenue and profit growth, driven by new product approvals and market access [5][47].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The overall revenue growth rate for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector in Q1 2025 was -4.8%, with a net profit growth rate of -12.2%[3] - The raw material drug sector showed resilience with a revenue growth rate of -3.6% and a net profit growth rate of 10.5% in Q1 2025, benefiting from demand recovery and price stabilization[3] Group 2: Profitability and Financial Performance - In 2024, major raw material drug companies saw an increase in gross margin and net margin by 0.78 percentage points and 0.39 percentage points respectively, while Q1 2025 saw a decline in average gross margin and net margin by 0.64 percentage points and 1.87 percentage points respectively[5] - The average operating cash flow for major raw material drug companies reached 10.04 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.65% increase from 2023, indicating a positive trend[31] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure for major raw material drug companies in 2024 totaled 7.242 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.12%[36] - The capital expenditure to depreciation ratio for the raw material drug sector decreased from 1.79 in 2023 to 1.27 in 2024, indicating ongoing capacity reduction and structural adjustments[36] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment recommendations focus on selecting raw material drug companies with strong growth attributes and stable competitive landscapes, particularly in bulk and specialty raw materials[44] - Companies like Guobang Pharmaceutical and Tianyu Co., Ltd. are highlighted for their favorable supply dynamics and demand recovery[44] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include intensified competition leading to suboptimal recovery in product prices and volumes, production safety incidents, and exchange rate fluctuations impacting profitability[47]