Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Monte Carlo Backtesting **Model Construction Idea**: Shift from historical path fitting to future robustness testing by generating multiple random paths to evaluate strategy performance across diverse scenarios [1][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate thousands of random price paths that follow historical statistical characteristics (e.g., return distribution, volatility, correlation) but differ from the original historical path [10] 2. Perform stress tests on strategies across these simulated paths to observe performance under various market conditions [10] 3. Calculate risk metrics such as Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and value-at-risk (VaR) based on the distribution of strategy returns [10] **Model Evaluation**: Effectively reduces overfitting to specific historical paths and provides a more comprehensive robustness assessment [10][46] - **Model Name**: Non-Parametric Monte Carlo Simulation **Model Construction Idea**: Use historical data directly without assuming any parametric distribution, preserving cross-sectional correlation [2][13] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Method 1**: Multi-Asset Time-Series Return Joint Rearrangement - Extract daily returns of all assets as a "data block" - Randomly sample and sequentially concatenate these blocks to form simulated paths [18] 2. **Method 2**: Multi-Asset Time-Series Return Block Bootstrap - Divide historical returns into fixed-length overlapping/non-overlapping blocks - Randomly sample blocks and concatenate them to form simulated paths [19] **Model Evaluation**: Preserves cross-sectional correlation but disrupts time-series structures like volatility clustering and autocorrelation [14][20] - **Model Name**: Residual Bootstrap (Factor Model-Based) **Model Construction Idea**: Separate systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk using factor models, then randomize residuals for simulation [2][23] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct risk factors (e.g., market, size, value, momentum) and calculate historical daily returns [23] 2. Perform cross-sectional regression to estimate factor exposures (β) and extract residual returns [23] 3. Randomly shuffle residuals while preserving cross-sectional correlation [23] 4. Reconstruct paths using historical factor returns and randomized residuals [23] **Model Evaluation**: Useful for analyzing alpha and risk exposure but limited by the explanatory power of the factor model [24][25] - **Model Name**: Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Simulation **Model Construction Idea**: Assume asset returns follow a normal distribution and simulate paths using drift and volatility parameters [2][28] **Model Construction Process**: $$d S_{i}(t)=\mu_{i}S_{i}(t)d t+\sigma_{i}S_{i}(t)d W_{i}(t),i=1,\ldots,n$$ - \( \mu_{i} \): Drift rate (expected return) - \( \sigma_{i} \): Volatility - \( W_{i}(t) \): Standard Brownian motion Discretized path: $$S_{i}^{(j)}(t_{k})=X_{i}(0)\,e x p[(\,k\Delta t+\sum_{l=1}^{k}\sum_{p=1}^{n}L_{i p}Z_{l,p}^{(j)}\,]$$ - \( L \): Cholesky decomposition of covariance matrix - \( Z_{l,p}^{(j)} \): Independent standard normal random variables [28] **Model Evaluation**: Accurately replicates volatility and correlation but fails to capture tail risks and price jumps [28][47] Model Backtesting Results - **Monte Carlo Backtesting**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window, GBM method) [45][46] - **Non-Parametric Monte Carlo Simulation**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.22 (15-day window, joint rearrangement method) [45][46] - **Residual Bootstrap**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window) [45][46] - **Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)**: - Historical price path Sharpe ratio: 0.96 (25-day window) - Simulated path Sharpe ratio: 0.19 (25-day window) [45][46] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Momentum and Volatility Dual Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine momentum and volatility factors using Z-score normalization and equal weighting [35] **Factor Construction Process**: $$S c o r e_{i}=0.5*Z S c o r e_{i,m o m}+0.5*Z S c o r e_{i,v o l}$$ - Momentum and volatility calculated over different window lengths (N ∈ [15, 20, 40]) [35] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a balanced scoring mechanism for style rotation strategies [35][37] Factor Backtesting Results - **Momentum and Volatility Dual Factor**: - Historical price path cumulative return: 535% (25-day window) - Simulated path cumulative return: 62.25% (15-day window, GBM method) [38][42]

Market Overview - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.55%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.84%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.43%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.38% [4] - The best-performing sectors on January 6 were non-ferrous metals (+4.26%), non-bank financials (+3.73%), basic chemicals (+3.12%), defense and military industry (+3.08%), and comprehensive sector (+2.89%). The worst-performing sector was telecommunications (-0.77%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 6 was 28,323 billion, with a net inflow of 2.879 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic report highlighted two core viewpoints: asset replacement in reserves and a focus on basic and rare metals as a main theme [5] - The geopolitical environment is exceeding expectations, and a potential easing of US-China tensions could lead to a reassessment of national security demands. Additionally, rapid advancements in AI technology may boost global growth and alleviate debt and geopolitical pressures [6] - In the bond market, the current pricing framework for floating-rate bonds is more closely linked to the DR007 benchmark rate. The investment value of floating-rate bonds is expected to improve, considering the narrowing of the short-term interest rate corridor and changes in the yield curve [7] Industry Commentary - The 2025 box office data released by the film bureau showed a total box office of 51.832 billion and 1.238 billion viewers, both exceeding a 20% increase compared to the previous year [10] - The Spring Festival box office set a record for the same period, and the summer box office showed steady growth compared to last year. Several imported blockbusters performed better than expected towards the end of the year, with top films, especially animated ones, dominating the market [10] - Investment opportunities are suggested in companies like Wanda Film, Bona Film, China Film, Shanghai Film, Happy Blue Ocean, Maoyan Entertainment (Hong Kong), and Damai Entertainment (Hong Kong) for the 2026 Spring Festival [10]

- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company is a leading supplier of single crystal silicon materials for integrated circuit etching, holding approximately 15% of the global market share. It is expected to benefit from the overall supply chain improvement driven by the storage industry's growth cycle, leading to potentially exceeding performance expectations [1][2] - The company has established a strong position in the semiconductor materials sector since its inception in 2013, with a product matrix that includes large diameter etching silicon materials, silicon components, and large-size silicon wafers. Its integrated R&D and production capabilities provide a sustainable competitive advantage [2] - The demand for large diameter silicon materials is expected to rise due to increased utilization in storage chip manufacturing, particularly as the global tech giants ramp up capital expenditures for computing centers. This trend is anticipated to create structural shortages in storage chip capacity [3] - The company has a stable export market for its large diameter silicon materials, with products already integrated into major domestic etching equipment manufacturers and wafer fabs. Its product range covers 14-inch to 22-inch specifications, catering to a broad customer base across key semiconductor regions [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 450 million, 800 million, and 1.32 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47.2%, 78.5%, and 65.3% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 100 million, 260 million, and 440 million yuan, with growth rates of 152.9%, 152.8%, and 68.4% respectively [12][14] - The estimated P/E ratios based on the closing price as of January 6, 2026, are 120.9, 47.8, and 28.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Publicly - offered REITs have the characteristics of "high dividends + inflation resistance + asset growth". With the "bond floor" of mandatory dividends and the "equity wing" of asset appreciation, they provide a scarce tool for enhancing returns and hedging risks, and are ideal "fixed - income +" tools to solve the current "asset shortage" [1][39]. - Through the differentiation of income sources, publicly - offered REITs effectively diversify portfolio risks. The market is still in its early stage of development, with broad space for asset expansion, category innovation, and platform growth, and has long - term strategic allocation value [39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 REITs Definition and Market Overview - Publicly - offered REITs are standardized financial products that pool the funds of multiple investors by issuing income certificates, hold the ownership or management rights of real estate assets in the structure of "public fund + asset - backed securities", and are publicly traded on stock exchanges. Their multi - layer structure effectively achieves the key goals of risk isolation, tax neutrality, and public offering [2][17]. - As of December 2025, the total market value of China's publicly - offered REITs market was nearly 220 billion yuan, with 79 listed products. The market has shown a continuous expansion trend, and the asset types have gradually diversified [3][24]. - The market investors of publicly - offered REITs include strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors. General legal persons are the largest holders, accounting for 59.09%, followed by securities firms' proprietary trading with a 19.42% share [2][37]. 3.2 Reasons to Focus on Publicly - offered REITs - Solving the "asset shortage" as a "fixed - income +" tool: In the low - interest - rate environment, REITs offer a more attractive asset option, with higher initial distribution yields than traditional bonds. From early 2024 to the end of 2025, the cumulative increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 18.82%, providing higher returns than pure - bond assets and having anti - decline and defensive properties [4][40]. - Dual income sources: Publicly - offered REITs achieve an optimized income structure through the compound model of "bottom - position dividends + potential growth", combining the stability of bonds and the growth potential of stocks. Regulatory requirements mandate that over 90% of distributable amounts be used for dividends, and asset value growth gives them "equity" potential [5][42]. - Huge expansion potential and innovation space: The expansion mechanism is becoming more normalized, and the entry of incremental funds is expected. The market has broad growth prospects, and new products such as REITs ETFs are being explored [6][46]. 3.3 Core Differences between REITs and Bonds - Legal relationship: REITs investors are shareholders, with a residual claim on the underlying real estate assets and operating cash flows. Bond investors are creditors, with a clear contractual relationship with the issuer [49][50]. - Income source: REITs' investment returns are mainly driven by operating dividends, with capital gains reflecting asset valuation changes. Bond returns mainly come from contractual coupon income, and secondary - market price differences reflect interest rate and credit spread changes [51]. - Risk characteristics: REITs face operating and market risks, while bonds are mainly affected by interest rate and credit risks [52][53]. - Report perspective: REITs focus on the sustainability of asset - operating cash flows, while bonds focus on the issuer's solvency and credit safety margin [55]. 3.4 Asset Type "Atlas" of China's Publicly - offered REITs - The underlying assets can be divided into two categories: property rights and franchise rights. The market shows a pattern of dominance by leading assets and insufficient supply at the tail end. The top three in terms of market - value proportion are transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and park infrastructure, which together account for 59.56% of the total market scale [9]. - Key points of different underlying assets: Transportation assets emphasize policies and location; consumer assets focus on the economic cycle and operation; park assets depend on industries and the ecological environment; warehousing and logistics rely on location and leases; energy infrastructure is related to policies and technology; and affordable rental housing needs to balance policies and people's livelihoods [9]. 3.5 Investment Strategies - REITs market performance is differentiated. Consumer infrastructure, affordable rental housing, and warehousing and logistics REITs show relatively high investment value. Consumer infrastructure REITs have an average increase of 32.48% since their establishment, with strong cash - flow stability and growth elasticity [10][68]. - An investment strategy of "dumbbell - shaped" allocation and "high - dividend - yield" tactics can be adopted. In the short term, focus on "defensive and stable" sectors, and gradually make left - hand side investments in "long - duration high - quality assets" [10][69].

Market Overview - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.9%, the STAR 50 surged by 4.41%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 2.09%, the ChiNext Index went up by 2.85%, and the Hang Seng Index slightly increased by 0.03% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on January 5 were Media (+4.12%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+3.85%), Electronics (+3.69%), Non-Bank Financials (+3.14%), and Computers (+2.71%). The worst-performing sectors included Oil and Petrochemicals (-1.29%), Banks (-0.34%), Transportation (-0.3%), and Retail (-0.17%) [5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 5 was 25,672 billion, with a net inflow of 18.723 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Key Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and an acceleration in domestic production rates, leading to a positive outlook for orders in the semiconductor equipment segment [6][7] - Four major growth directions are highlighted: 1. AI-driven storage supercycle focusing on etching and thin-film equipment leaders 2. Dawn of domestic photolithography machine production, emphasizing core subsystems and components 3. Evolution of cutting-edge technologies, with ALD equipment entering a golden development period 4. Advanced packaging continuing the Moore's Law, with substantial room for equipment localization [7] - The driving factors include accelerated capital expenditure from domestic wafer fabs and higher-than-expected domestic production rates [7] Investment Opportunities - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI applications, marking the beginning of a significant growth phase in the sector [8] - The convergence of application, computing power, and capital is expected to trigger a "flywheel" effect in embodied intelligence [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The overall box office in 2025 reached 51.832 billion, with total audience attendance at 1.238 billion, showing an increase of over 20% compared to the previous year [3] - The Spring Festival and summer holiday periods contributed significantly to the box office recovery, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 9.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.69% [8] - The structure of the film market is gradually adjusting, with a concentration of top films, particularly in the animation genre, leading to a "winner takes all" scenario [8] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - In 2025, the box office performance showed a recovery with significant contributions from key holiday periods [3][8] - The number of films grossing over 1 billion was 51, while the number of films grossing between 1-2 billion was 11, indicating a strong performance in the top tier [5] Market Trends - The film market is experiencing a structural shift, with fewer mid-tier films and a concentration of box office revenue among top films [8] - The industry is expected to continue its recovery trend, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential box office of 53.1 billion [14] Investment Opportunities - There are short-term investment opportunities in strong holiday periods, particularly during the Spring Festival and summer holidays, driven by high-quality film releases [9][11] - Companies such as Wanda Film, Bona Film, and Shanghai Film are highlighted as having significant potential for growth in the upcoming holiday seasons [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud business is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability as it scales, with a long-term certainty of margin enhancement [2][39] - The company is currently in a high capital expenditure phase, with Q3 2025 capital expenditures reaching 31.428 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 85.12% [2][32] - Despite two consecutive quarters of declining free cash flow, Alibaba maintains a strong cash position with 292.3 billion RMB in net cash and liquid investments [2][34] Summary by Relevant Sections Cloud Business and AI Development - Alibaba's cloud business, while currently lagging behind competitors like AWS and Microsoft in EBITA margin, has the potential for significant margin improvement as it grows [2][37] - The launch of the "Qianwen" AI application has seen rapid user growth, with over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of its public testing [15][16] - The integration of AI capabilities into Alibaba's ecosystem is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency across various platforms [21][23] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 1,068.23 billion, 1,177.88 billion, and 1,298.12 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 10.3%, and 10.2% respectively [3][40] - Adjusted net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 119.85 billion, 160.11 billion, and 213.63 billion RMB, with growth rates of -24.1%, 33.6%, and 33.4% [3][40] - The target price is set at HKD 189.09 per share, based on a 12x PE ratio for FY2027 adjusted net profit and a 7x PS ratio for FY2027 cloud revenue [3][40] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company is committed to high capital expenditures to ensure competitive supply, with plans to invest 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [32] - The recent decline in free cash flow, reported at -21.84 billion RMB for Q3 2025, has raised market concerns, but the company’s cash reserves provide a buffer for new business investments [34][34] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the AI and cloud sectors is intensifying, with Alibaba's Qianwen positioned as a strong contender against other AI applications like Doubao [16][18] - The strategic integration of AI into Alibaba's e-commerce and travel services is expected to redefine user interactions and operational efficiencies [21][26]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]