Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report recommends 盛业 (06069) as a supply chain technology leader with a projected revenue growth of 24%/26%/24% and net profit growth of 43%/46%/33% from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 21.65 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 62.9% [4] - 百亚股份 (003006) is highlighted as a leading regional sanitary napkin brand, with expected revenue growth of 26.33%/26.10%/25.11% and net profit growth of 28.20%/41.27%/37.43% from 2025 to 2027, driven by online strategy optimization and scale effects [5] - 日久光电 (003015) is identified as a leader in the membrane materials sector, with projected revenue growth of 36%/26%/20% and net profit growth of 112%/58%/32% from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from new product applications in automotive displays [6][9] Group 2: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that excess household savings since 2020 amount to approximately 4.25 trillion, suggesting that the capital market may become a key outlet for these funds, potentially enhancing market liquidity and investor participation [10] - The A-share strategy report notes a divergence in index performance, with a "systematic slow bull" market outlook, suggesting that investors should maintain current positions and look for mid-term opportunities amidst potential short-term volatility [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. Investors share the returns of the equity market by betting on passive tools. Driven by the equity market and the inflow of fixed - income funds, the convertible bond index has reached a new high. At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. Potential opportunities can be explored from three aspects: "anti - involution", underlying stock elasticity, and dividend allocation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 转债周度思考 - In the past week, after adjustments, both the equity market and the convertible bond market rose again, and the convertible bond index reached a new high. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 3600 points, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73% in the past week, and the underlying stock equal - weighted index of convertible bonds rose 3.00%. The median price of convertible bonds has exceeded 130 yuan, and the valuations of equity - like and balanced convertible bonds continue to expand [2]. - Since July, the convertible bond ETFs have significantly expanded. The share of two convertible bond ETFs has rapidly increased, with a 27% month - on - month increase compared to the end of June, and the scale has exceeded 5.72 billion yuan. Considering that some active funds are also making index - based layouts, the scale of index - based investment tools is expected to exceed 6.5 billion yuan. The holders of ETFs are mainly absolute - return funds such as banks and insurance companies, which invest in convertible bond ETFs to share the equity market's upward trend since late June and enhance returns by increasing positions in convertible bond indices [2]. - At present, with both high prices and valuations, the anti - decline and protective properties of convertible bonds have weakened significantly. Although the equity market is generally expected to be in a slow - bull state with a relatively low possibility of a large - scale pullback, the high point of the equity market within the year is unclear. After this round of increase, the price center of convertible bonds has generally risen, and the median has exceeded 130 yuan. With the continuous inflow of funds, the valuation has also been stretched. For some individual bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan price range that have risen with the market, the current median conversion premium rate is 40%, and the investment cost - effectiveness is average. Under the condition that the fundamentals of individual bonds cannot change significantly in the short term and the call - at - par - value - at - 130 clause is in place, the anti - decline and protective properties of these convertible bonds with a higher price center and premium rate have weakened significantly [2]. - After the convertible bond index reaches new highs, it is recommended to adjust the structure instead of increasing the index position. The state of convertible bonds in a relatively mild stock - bond market remains unchanged, and there are still opportunities for convertible bonds to perform. Since July, the number of callable convertible bonds has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction of convertible bonds still exists, which supports the valuation and performance of convertible bonds. Absolute - return funds can take partial profits or adjust the structure while keeping the overall position unchanged. It is recommended to explore opportunities along three lines: (1) Pay attention to industries where some backward production capacities are being cleared as "anti - involution" progresses in various industries; (2) Focus on equity - like and balanced convertible bonds with high - volatility and low - premium underlying stocks. Industries such as electronics and semiconductors are expected to experience marginal recovery due to tariff easing, and innovative drug convertible bond targets are scarce; (3) The allocation value of dividend assets remains high, and low - volatility bottom - position convertible bonds are worth attention [2]. 3.2 2 可转债市场跟踪 3.2.1 2.1 可转债行情方面 - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, including the past week, two weeks, since July, one month, two months, half - year, and one year. For example, the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index rose 2.60% in the past week, 6.81% since July, and 21.79% in the past year [12]. 3.2.2 2.2 转债个券方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.3 2.3 转债估值方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title. 3.2.4 2.4 转债价格方面 No specific analysis content for this part is provided in the text other than the section title.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue met expectations, but profit margins faced further pressure due to fluctuations in old customer orders and the ramp-up of new factories [1] - New customer orders saw significant growth year-on-year, although some old customer orders declined due to external factors such as consumer demand in Europe and the US, and tariff uncertainties [2] - The company's gross margin fluctuated due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories and adjustments in production capacity among older factories [3] - The company is maintaining an aggressive capacity expansion strategy, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to enhance profitability in the coming years [4] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward for the current year due to uncertainties in trade environments, but a recovery in profit margins is anticipated in 2026 as new factory efficiencies improve [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while net profit was 1.664 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.4% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.31 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, with net profit at 902 million yuan, down 17.3% [1] Customer Dynamics - The company experienced a significant increase in new customer orders, primarily from brands like Adidas and New Balance, contributing to a 6.14% increase in sports shoe sales to 11.5 million pairs in H1 2025 [2] Production and Capacity - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.1%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 margins at 14.2% and 12.3%, respectively [3] - The company is actively expanding production capacity with new factories, which typically take 1.5 to 2 years to reach full efficiency [4] Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 26.66 billion yuan, 30.15 billion yuan, and 34.18 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Fundamental Quantitative Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the fundamental performance of industries, focusing on the transition from expectation-driven to data-driven analysis, particularly for cyclical sectors like coal and chemicals[3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates industry fundamentals by analyzing indicators such as industry prosperity and earnings expectations. It identifies sectors with improving fundamentals and aligns them with market sentiment shifts[3][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the transition from speculative to fundamental-driven market dynamics, aligning with the observed recovery in cyclical sectors like coal and chemicals[3][13] 2. Model Name: Sentiment Quantitative Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model measures market sentiment, particularly focusing on retail investor activity and trading dynamics in the TMT sector[3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks metrics such as average daily turnover and retail investor participation. It identifies sectors with high trading activity and sentiment, such as TMT, which has seen sustained upward momentum since June[3][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identifies sectors with strong trading sentiment, highlighting the TMT sector's resilience and potential for continued upward movement[3][13] 3. Model Name: Crowding Indicator Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses the crowding level in specific sectors, such as innovative drugs, to predict potential risks of pullbacks[3][13] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding indicators based on historical data, comparing current levels to a 5-year range. For example, the crowding indicator for the innovative drug sector is at 94.93%, suggesting a high likelihood of a pullback in the next three weeks[3][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a robust framework for identifying overbought conditions, offering valuable insights for risk management in crowded sectors[3][13] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Fundamental Quantitative Model - **Indicator: Industry Prosperity**: Coal and chemical sectors show improving fundamentals, aligning with the model's predictions for upward revisions in August[3][13] 2. Sentiment Quantitative Model - **Indicator: Average Daily Turnover**: The average daily turnover for the entire A-share market remains at approximately 1.75 trillion yuan, a historically high level, supporting the model's sentiment analysis[3][13] 3. Crowding Indicator Model - **Indicator: Crowding Level**: The crowding indicator for the innovative drug sector is at 94.93%, indicating a high risk of pullback within three weeks[3][13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: EP Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor identifies assets with high earnings-to-price ratios, which are expected to deliver superior returns[25][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the ratio of earnings per share (EPS) to the stock price. It is used to rank assets based on their relative valuation attractiveness[25][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong performance, with high EP value assets delivering significant excess returns during the week[25][26] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures short-term price momentum, identifying stocks with strong recent performance[25][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated based on the relative price performance of stocks over a defined short-term period. Stocks with the highest momentum scores are expected to outperform[25][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows notable outperformance during the week, highlighting its effectiveness in capturing short-term trading opportunities[25][26] 3. Factor Name: Nonlinear Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor examines the nonlinear relationship between market capitalization and stock returns[25][26] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived by fitting a nonlinear regression model to the relationship between market capitalization and historical returns. It identifies deviations from the expected size-return relationship[25][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor experienced a slight pullback during the week, indicating a temporary shift in market preferences away from size-based strategies[25][26] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. EP Value Factor - **Weekly Return**: +0.2%[25][26] 2. Momentum Factor - **Weekly Return**: +0.3%[25][26] 3. Nonlinear Size Factor - **Weekly Return**: -0.3%[25][26]

Group 1 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3][22] - The report outlines that since the initiation of the "924" policy in September 2024, the market has established a long-term bottom, leading to the commencement of the fifth bull market in April 2025 [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on "big finance + broad technology" sectors for investment, suggesting a "1+X" allocation strategy to enhance win rates [1][4][22] Group 2 - The report highlights that the historical context of A-share markets includes four previous bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a more gradual increase [2][13][14] - It notes that the current "slow bull" market is supported by four key factors: the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, positive technical trends, a favorable chip structure, and differentiated sector performance [4][22] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to investments in innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from external advantages and improving market conditions [1][4][22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - TI is expected to initiate a new round of price increases in August, focusing on industrial control, automotive, and computing-related chip products, which may signal a turning point for the domestic analog sector as demand continues to recover [1][2][4] - The price increase by TI is anticipated to end the price war in the analog industry, allowing domestic analog companies to accelerate their market share growth [2][3] - The price hikes are primarily driven by industrial control and automotive products, with over 40% of industrial control products seeing price increases, benefiting platform-type analog companies [3][4] Summary by Sections - **Price Increase Impact**: TI's price increase is expected to alleviate price pressure in the analog sector, opening up upward potential for domestic companies as demand remains strong [4] - **Key Companies**: Notable companies in the sector include: - Naxin Micro: Leader in automotive-grade analog chips - Sirepu: Leader in industrial control analog chips - Shengbang Co.: Leader in platform-type analog chips - Jiewate: Leader in computing analog chips [5] - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates that the domestic analog companies have been under pressure due to TI's price competition, but the current price adjustments may lead to improved profitability and market positioning [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips in anticipation of a peak season in September [1] Price Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,509, with a weekly increase of 2.5% and a year-to-date increase of 19.3% [4] - The SW General Steel Index is at 2,589, with a weekly increase of 2.7% and a year-to-date increase of 24.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,330 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.3% [4] - The iron ore Platts index is at 102 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [4] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 962,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 26.8% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 413,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.8% and a year-to-date increase of 17.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,715,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-to-date increase of 7.7% [5] Supply and Demand - The report indicates a steady production level, with weekly output of five major steel products at approximately 1,000,000 tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is projected to remain stable [9] Stock Performance - The report highlights the stock performance of several companies, with notable increases in some stocks while others have seen declines [19]

Core Viewpoints - The overall market rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing unexpected upward divergence, while different indices exhibited varied performances. The market is expected to face short-term disturbances due to factors such as the MACD divergence and the upcoming expiration of the 24% tariff suspension on August 12 [1][4][54] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the medium to long-term outlook remains a "systematic slow bull" market. Any significant pullback could present a good opportunity for reallocation [1][4][56] Market Overview - Major indices experienced a broad rally, but with divergence in performance. The Shanghai Composite Index was the strongest, rebounding 2.11% after hitting support at 3550 points, while the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices reached new highs, increasing by 2.51% and 2.74% respectively [2][11][54] - Most sectors showed positive performance, with 28 out of 30 sectors rising. Notably, the metals sector surged by 5.83%, driven by rare earths, while the healthcare sector faced pressure, declining by 0.79% [14][55] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline from the previous week. Most stock index futures contracts were trading at a discount [20][28] Fund Flows - The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.68% from the previous week. The securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 23.9 billion yuan [28][39] Quantitative Analysis - The dynamic valuation model indicates that major indices are reasonably valued, with the ChiNext Index at a low valuation level. As of August 8, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.69, while the ChiNext Index was at 33.79, placing it in the 19.22 percentile [46][49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's net profit growth exceeded expectations, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by stable growth in core business and effective cost management [1][2] - The company is focusing on profitable and cash-generating revenue streams, leading to a robust EBITDA growth of 2.0% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 34.2% [1] - The company anticipates steady revenue growth for the full year, supported by resilient demand in its core business and effective capital expenditure management [2] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 543.769 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with core business revenue at 466.989 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1] - The company has actively abandoned inefficient businesses, resulting in a stable growth in core business revenue [1] Personal Market - The personal market revenue for the first half of 2025 was 244.727 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, but the mobile user base increased slightly by 560,000 to 1.005 billion [3] - The company expects a gradual recovery in personal market revenue in the second half of the year due to improved competitive conditions [3] Family Market - The family market revenue grew by 7.4% year-on-year to 74.989 billion yuan, with broadband connection revenue increasing by 9.3% [4] - The company reported a net increase of 6.23 million family broadband users, reaching a total of 284 million [4] Government and Enterprise Market - The government and enterprise market revenue rose by 5.6% year-on-year to 118.196 billion yuan, with mobile cloud revenue growing by 11.3% [5] - The company is enhancing its capabilities to meet customer demands and is focusing on quality control to avoid excessive bad debts [5] Emerging Markets - The emerging markets segment reported a revenue of 29.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with international business revenue growing by 18.4% [6][10] - The company is leveraging its global strategy to enhance its international business capabilities [6] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company effectively managed costs, with a 0.1% year-on-year increase in core business costs, while capital expenditure decreased by 8.8% to 58.4 billion yuan [11] - The company expects full-year capital expenditure to be lower than the initial guidance of 151.2 billion yuan [11] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company's operating cash flow decreased by 36.2% year-on-year, but is expected to improve in the second half of the year as projects are completed [12] - The company announced an interim dividend of 2.75 HKD per share, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [13] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 2.0% for 2025 and 2026, with net profit growth rates of 5.0% for the same period [14]

Inflation Overview - July CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0.0%, better than the market expectation of -0.1% and consistent with prior predictions[1] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.4%, compared to a previous value of -0.1%, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - July PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -3.6%, matching the previous value and falling short of the market expectation of -3.4%[1] CPI Components - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contributing about 0.17 percentage points to the CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, impacting CPI by approximately -0.29 percentage points[5] PPI Insights - PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.2% was influenced by seasonal factors, including high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction demand[7] - Prices in the non-metallic mineral products sector fell by 1.4%, while coal mining prices decreased by 1.5%[7] - The prices of high-tech products, such as aircraft manufacturing, rose by 3.0%, indicating a shift towards high-end industrial development[9] Market Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit a dual bull structure in equities and bonds in the second half of the year, supported by a potential easing of US-China trade relations[1] - A-shares are anticipated to experience a structural rally characterized by alternating low-volatility dividends and technology growth[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low probability of large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1]