证券研究报告 钢铁周报：重视淡季的底部布局 行业评级：看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年6月1日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | ...

行业评级：看好 2025 年 06 月 02 日 证券研究报告 钢铁周报：重视淡季的底部布局 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属 沈皓俊】 | | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年6月1日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 347 | 0 . | 0% | -0 . | 1% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 840 | -1 . | 1% | -2 . | 4% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 124 | -0 . | 7% | 1 . | 0% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 02 日 风偏下行，稳健优先 ——可转债周度跟踪 核心观点 本周权益与转债市场胜率相对不足，各宽基和转债指数涨跌各异，短期或因关税扰动 而承压。5 月以来市场上涨更多呈现超跌反弹特征，投资者基于赔率考量在市场调整 时积极入场，叠加中央汇金等机构对权益市场的持续看好，驱动市场行情持续走高。 考虑到目前转债市场潜在的风险释放压力，哑铃配置策略或继续占优。 ❑ 风险提示 经济基本面改善不足；国内流动性收紧；海外风险事件超预期；历史经验不代表 未来 分析师：沈聂萍 执业证书号：S1230524020005 shennieping@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《脉冲式交易策略或仍适用》 2025.06.01 2 《央行持续净投放，呵护跨月 资金面》 2025.06.01 3 《波澜不惊，择机配置》 2025.05.31 正文目录 | 1 市场观察 … | | --- | | 2 转债市场跟踪 … | | 2.1 转债行情方面…………… ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 01 日 经济周周看：本周经济景气度延续平稳，消费出口韧性强 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 31 日）为 5.7%，与上周修订值 5.7%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，各变量分化，消费延续走强，固投偏弱，抢出口支撑出口高增。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with major indices showing a "dilemma" pattern, where the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.03%, 1.22%, and 1.08% respectively[54] - The North China 50 index rose by 2.82%, indicating stronger performance compared to other indices[11] - The TMT sector showed some recovery, while export-related sectors performed weakly, with automotive and electric new energy sectors declining by 4.32% and 2.21% respectively[12] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous week[18] - The margin trading balance remained stable at 1.80 trillion yuan, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 8.70%[28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.45 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow[28] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation and narrow fluctuations, as the technical pressure on major indices has become clear, particularly around the gap formed on April 10 (3186-3201 points)[4] - The brokerage sector, which has been adjusting since November 8, 2024, is seen as a potential "breaker" of the current dilemma, warranting increased attention[4] - It is recommended to maintain current mid-line positions and consider increasing allocations if a rapid market pullback occurs, especially near the April 10 gap[4] Risks - There are risks associated with domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations and uncertainties in global geopolitical situations[58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The global supply structure of natural rubber is undergoing significant changes, with Southeast Asian producers facing supply constraints due to aging trees and competition from alternative crops, while African countries like Côte d'Ivoire are experiencing rapid production growth due to lower labor costs and mature rubber trees [5][31] - Supply growth is limited while demand is steadily increasing, suggesting a potential long-term price increase for natural rubber [6] - China remains the largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for 45% of global consumption in 2024, with a strong demand driven by the tire industry [30][76] Summary by Sections Supply Side Tightening - The supply of natural rubber is tightening due to a combination of factors including aging tree structures and limited new planting areas, leading to a forecasted production increase of only 0.5% in 2025 [6][48] - Southeast Asia's traditional rubber-producing regions are under pressure, with Thailand's planting area declining for eight consecutive years and production capacity growth being constrained [31][36] Demand Resilience - Global demand for natural rubber is expected to grow steadily, with a projected increase of 1.3% in 2025, driven primarily by the tire industry, which constitutes over 70% of consumption [76] - The tire production rates remain high, with full steel tire operating rates at 65% and semi-steel tire rates at 78% as of May 2025 [80] Market Dynamics - The natural rubber market has experienced long periods of low prices since 2018 due to oversupply, but recent trends indicate a potential shift as supply tightens and demand remains robust [37][40] - The pricing power is shifting towards the supply side, particularly as China faces increasing import dependencies and concentrated sources for natural rubber [30][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, a significant increase of 971.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 49.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investment, with a 38.7% growth in R&D expenses in Q1 2025, aimed at enhancing core technologies [2] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 240 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 500 million yuan, with a net profit of 20 million yuan, but a non-recurring net profit loss of 20 million yuan [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 49.6%, and the net profit margin was 10.8%, affected by increased expense ratios and significant credit impairment losses [2] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which is reflected in the growth of R&D expenses [2] Strategic Developments - The company is implementing a group strategy that has led to significant revenue growth across various product lines, with GEOVIS technology services generating 2.3 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [3] - The company plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through a private placement to support the construction of various platforms, including the "Sky Information Cloud" and "Low Altitude Cloud" services [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.26 billion yuan, 5.58 billion yuan, and 7.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 492 million yuan, 657 million yuan, and 854 million yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply-demand pattern is improving, driven by seasonal demand, which is expected to lead to a rebound in coal prices. The report anticipates a decline in coal supply after May, with demand likely to continue improving. Policy initiatives and fundamentals are expected to resonate, suggesting that coal prices may have bottomed out and are poised for recovery [4][6]. Industry Market Performance - As of May 24, the coal industry index rose by 4.15% for the month, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.96%. However, year-to-date, the coal sector has declined by 10.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 9.53 percentage points [11][12]. - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 12.03, which is ranked 27th among 30 sectors, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [11]. Supply and Demand Situation - From January to May 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups were 6.841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. In May, the average daily sales dropped to 6.677 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year [26][27]. - National coal production from January to April 2025 reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. In April alone, production was 390 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year [40][41]. - Coal imports from January to April 2025 totaled 150 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. In April, imports were 37.83 million tons, down 16.4% year-on-year [43][44]. Monthly Coal Consumption Data - National coal consumption from January to April 2025 was 1.66 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. In April, consumption was 390 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year [55][56]. - The electricity sector consumed 940 million tons of coal from January to April, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year. In April, consumption was 200 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [58][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies, particularly thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others. It also highlights coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits [4].