Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic development targets may be relaxed, and the marginal expansion of macro policies may be limited. The equity market is expected to continue its slow - bull trend in 2026. The bond market may see a short - term boost in confidence but sentiment remains weak. It is advisable to test the waters with a small position and retreat after capturing a 1 - 2bp small band [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic and Social Development Goals and Quality - Quantity Balance - The main economic and social development goals in 2025 will be achieved, marking a successful end to the "14th Five - Year Plan". For 2026, the focus is on the balance between quality improvement and reasonable quantity growth. The economic growth target is likely to be set around 5%, but there is a possibility of relaxation. Key structural reforms such as new - quality productivity and expanding domestic demand will be the focus of economic work [2][13][15]. 2. Coordinating Internal and External Development and Emphasizing Domestic Demand - The meeting called for better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade struggles, and development and security. In 2025, China's exports showed resilience but faced uncertainties. In 2026, the core of domestic demand expansion may be consumption, and unblocking consumption circulation through increasing wealth income may be crucial [3][16][17]. 3. Macro Policy Tone and Expansion - The macro policy tone remains unchanged, with a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. However, the marginal expansion of policies may be limited, with a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than large - scale incremental policy implementation [4][19][20]. 4. Promoting Supply Optimization - On the demand side, consumption is likely the main driver for expanding domestic demand. On the supply side, product structure upgrading is the core direction, and the key is to improve efficiency and revitalize the large - scale stock [5][21][23]. 5. Real Estate and Stock Markets - The meeting did not mention real estate and stock market arrangements. Real estate policies may continue to focus on risk prevention, and incremental policies may be triggered by specific events or data. The equity market is expected to continue its slow - bull trend in 2026, and the bond market may see a short - term sentiment boost but the adjustment trend is hard to reverse. A small - position trial with a 1 - 2bp band - trading strategy is recommended [6][24].

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 逆周期与跨周期结合发力 ──中央经济工作会议传递的信号 核心观点 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，重点如下： 一是为实现经济高质量发展，仍应注重科技自立自强水平提高，但稳中求进也指向 2025 年作为十五五开局之年，经济增速目标设置在 5%左右的概率较大。 二是宏观政策更加积极有为的同时，也应注重效能提升。对应政策基调由去年 12 月政 治局会议的"加强超常规逆周期调节"转变为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，意味着相较 于政策力度的扩张，政策效能的提升更为重要，尤其是集中财力保障国家重大战略任 务，做到"小钱小气，大钱大方"。要注重发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应。 具体政策来看：货币政策方面，预计 2026 年货币政策全年降准 50BP，降息 10BP，小 步慢跑。财政政策方面，我们上修 2026 年赤字率预期至 4.0%~4.2%左右，但广义赤 字率可能小幅回撤。 ❑ 提质增效更加注重高质量发展，"超常规"退出 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，会议指出，明 年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、 ...

Group 1: Investment in Physical Capital - China's capital stock reached approximately $93 trillion in 2024, accounting for about 503% of GDP[29] - The average growth rate of capital stock from 1961 to 1993 was about 5.2%, while from 1994 to 2016 it was approximately 10.8%, and is projected to decline to 5.8% by 2024[29] - In 2024, the total capital formation in China is estimated to be around 54.8 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 25.2% to GDP growth[2] Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - Investment in human capital focuses on enhancing capabilities across the entire population, including education, healthcare, and skills training[47] - The proportion of public spending on social welfare in China was 53.7% in 2023, compared to 60%-70% in developed countries, indicating significant room for improvement[6] - The government aims to increase the share of public investment in social welfare during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[44] Group 3: Economic and Social Development - The urbanization rate in China is expected to reach 70% within five years, with a projected rate of about 67% in 2024, driving infrastructure and public service improvements[42] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between investment in physical and human capital to foster sustainable economic growth[1] - The government plans to enhance public services in nine key areas, including education, healthcare, and social security, to ensure equitable access for all citizens[52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is upgraded to "Buy" [6][8]. Core Views - 德昌股份 is a leading domestic enterprise in automotive EPS motors, extending its high-end motor technology barriers into the robotics sector, particularly in joint motors, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [1][5]. - The market currently perceives the company as a traditional home appliance manufacturer, underestimating its growth potential [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Transformation - The company's business focus has significantly shifted, with home appliance operations serving as a cash cow. The automotive EPS motor business, developed over the past five years, has entered a growth phase and is becoming the second growth curve for the company. The market's understanding of the automotive EPS motor sector is limited, as it has higher technical barriers compared to ordinary motors. Previously, the global market was dominated by foreign giants like Nidec and Bosch, but 德昌股份 has established itself as a leading domestic player with strong product capabilities and competitive advantages [3][5]. Robotics Sector Potential - The difficulty of entering the robotics joint motor market is higher than market expectations, and the company's capabilities in this area are significantly underestimated. There is little market anticipation regarding the company's foray into this sector [3][5]. Performance Indicators and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include the revenue share and profitability of automotive EPS motors, as well as customer acquisition and order status in the robotics sector. Catalysts for growth include an increase in revenue share from automotive EPS motors and successful breakthroughs in customer acquisition for the robotics business [4][5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 德昌股份 from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 46.9 billion, 53.9 billion, and 63.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 14.8%, and 17.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.0 billion, 4.0 billion, and 5.7 billion yuan, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [6][12].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 08 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大消费中观策略 马莉/史凡可/陈钊】商贸零售 行业深度：TOP TOY 潮玩发展之路： IP 矩阵、全品类、 全球化——20251207 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继续完善，欧美气候监管转向灵活务实——20251205 【浙商金属新材料 何玉静/沈皓俊】有色金属 年度行业策略报告：供需矛盾催化升级，周期红利价值凸显—— 20251206 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜】A 股策略周报：冗余时刻还未结束，目标不变、守株待兔——20251206 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：本轮债市要调整多久？——20251206 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商 ESG 祁星】专题研究：中国"双碳"政策体系继 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 美利信(301307) 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 控股股东增持彰显发展信心，公司"液冷+半导体"有望超预期 ——美利信点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 近期公司催化密集： 1）控股股东拟增持公司股份 0.5~1 亿元。2025 年 12 月 5 日，公司发布公告： 公司控股股东美利信控股有限公司计划在未来 6 个月内增持 0.5~1 亿元。 2）公司拟定向增发不超过 12 亿元，投入可钎焊压铸（液冷）、半导体等项目。 2025 年 12 月 4 日，公司发布公告，拟向特定对象募集资金总额不超过 12 亿 元，计划分别用于半导体装备精密结构件建设项目（5 亿元）、通信及汽车零部 件可钎焊压铸产业化项目（5 亿元）、补充流动资金（2 亿元）。 3）公司通过合资方式正式布局服务器液冷。2025 年 11 月 22 日，公司与钜量创 新绿能股份有限公司（中国台湾）签署合作协议，双方拟新设立合资公司，共同 开拓服务器液冷关键零部件市场，为国内、国际优质客户提供高效水冷板设计、 相关液冷服务器套件的开发量产服务。 ❑ 点评：未来公司在液冷、半导体设备板块的业绩释放均有望超 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools such as outright reverse repurchase and MLF forms a price - comparison relationship with the current issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs). Also, the scale of public money market funds and bank wealth management cash - management products is expected to continue growing, so it's difficult for the inter - bank CD rate to rise significantly. However, it's also hard for DR001 to fall significantly below the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, so the downward space for the inter - bank CD rate is limited [1]. - In the context of low cross - year financing difficulty, the inter - bank CD yield may remain in a "dilemma" pattern within the year. Wait patiently for a possible CD allocation point in January 2026 [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "进退维谷"的同业存单 - Since the fourth quarter, the yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CDs has had an amplitude of only 5bp, fluctuating between 1.63% and 1.68%. In December, the amplitude has narrowed to 2bp, indicating a balance between "long" and "short" factors [2][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield has a high difficulty in rising. The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools forms a price - comparison relationship with the CD issuance rate, and the growth of current - account wealth management product scale drives up the CD allocation demand [3][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield also has a high difficulty in falling. Under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, and the money market has been characterized by "ample quantity but stable price" in the past six months [4][12]. 狭义流动性 央行操作：月初季节性净回笼 - In the past week (12/1 - 12/5), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 8480 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase balance as of December 5 was 6638 billion yuan, at a low level [13]. - In December, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 14000 billion yuan (10000 billion yuan for 3M and 4000 billion yuan for 6M), and the maturity of MLF was 3000 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank renewed 10000 billion yuan of 3M outright reverse repurchase, achieving an equal - amount renewal [14][15]. 机构融入融出情况：月初融出顺畅 - On December 5, the net funds lent out by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 4.1 trillion yuan, about 7415 billion yuan higher than on November 28, and the net lending balance was 4.7 trillion yuan, about 2966 billion yuan more than on November 28, both at relatively high levels compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.2 trillion yuan, about 2366 billion yuan lower than on November 28, at a neutral level compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 40 billion yuan, about 317 billion yuan higher than on November 28, at a relatively low level compared with the same period in previous years [16]. - On December 5, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, 6678 billion yuan higher than on November 28. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products changed accordingly [26]. 回购市场成交情况：月初流动性摩擦小 - In terms of quantity and price of funds, at the end of the month, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4867 billion yuan compared with 11/24 - 11/28. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a 1bp decrease from last week. The liquidity friction was small [30]. - The money market was generally loose, and the financing difficulty at the beginning of the month was low, with the sentiment index mostly around 50 [31]. 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year rate decreased slightly compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% of the range since 2020, and the median of the SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.60%, in the bottom 22% of the range since 2020 [36]. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 1866 billion yuan, with relatively small overall pressure. Treasury bonds and local bonds had net payments of 500 billion and 1366 billion yuan respectively. In the next week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 7952 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 8797 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 845 billion yuan [37]. 当前政府债发行进度 - As of December 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2%, up 2.6% from the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 2523 billion yuan. The issuance of the 5000 - billion - yuan local bond quota balance to be carried forward within the year has started [39]. 同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 绝对收益率 - On December 5, SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.3%, 1.42%, 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. Except for the 7 - day term, which decreased by 2bp compared with November 28, the quotes for other terms remained unchanged. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank CDs of commercial banks with AAA ratings were 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.66% respectively, with those of 1M and above terms increasing by 13bp, 4bp, 2bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively compared with November 28 [42]. 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (December 1 - December 5), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 4959 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 13%, 12%, 44%, 9%, and 22% respectively, with the proportions of 1M, 6M, and 9M increasing and those of 3M and 1Y decreasing [44]. 相对估值 - On December 5, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 19bp, at the 47% quantile since 2020 [47].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rise, but it underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.77% against the CSI 300's 1.28% [2] - Inventory levels are increasing due to supply policies, while coal prices are declining rapidly. Despite increased production, supply constraints are expected to persist, leading to potential coal shortages in certain regions [6][32] - The report anticipates a rise in the coal price center in the fourth quarter, with current coal asset dividends being reasonable [6][32] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the coal sector's performance was 0.77% up, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points. A total of 21 stocks rose, while 14 fell, with New Dazhou A showing the highest increase of 14.98% [2] Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from November 28 to December 4, 2025, were 6.98 million tons, down 5% week-on-week and down 9.5% year-on-year. Total coal inventory was 24.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% week-on-week and 20.5% year-on-year [2][30] Price Trends in Coal Types - As of December 5, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 706 CNY/ton, up 1.15% week-on-week, while the price of imported thermal coal fell by 4.69% to 874 CNY/ton. Prices for coking coal and anthracite also showed declines [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others. For coking coal, companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended. Additionally, companies with improved profits in the coking sector are highlighted [6][32]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 关注成长板块的配置价值 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 中期维度，政策催化下慢牛预期依然稳固，权益市场风险偏好近期逐步回升，科技板 块转债作为高弹性品种，其股性价值有望得到进一步巩固。在资产荒格局延续的背景 下，"固收+"资金对转债，特别是具备成长确定性的科技品种，配置需求依然旺盛。 ❑ 转债市场走势先下后上，整体呈现成交缩量、区间震荡，估值压缩。 近期在债券市场的持续调整下，纯债基金的赎回规模明显放大，市场流动性收缩 明显，带动固收+基金赎回规模同步扩大，但转债市场通过估值波动熨平债券市场 震荡影响，总体持仓体验更优。中期维度，虽然转债供给持续缩量，但市场增量 资金充足，预计转债估值回调空间有限，同时随着投资者止盈预期接近尾声，权 益慢牛预期下市场对于高估值的标的容忍度有所提升。 ❑ 近期市场缩量盘整，但科技板块成交依旧活跃，量价均已呈现企稳态势。 10 月以来，科技板块跟随股市同步调整，虽然板块转债估值被动收缩，但依旧呈 现较为明显的抗跌性；万得可转债信息技术指数近两月回调 2.43%，表现整体优 ...

Core Insights - The market continues to rebound, but with increased volatility. The expectation is for a range-bound market due to significant gains in Q3 and the lack of a leading narrative or sector driving the market upward [1][4][52] - The strategy suggests a "wait and see" approach, avoiding chasing prices and setting targets based on key index levels, while selectively entering positions [1][5][54] Market Overview - Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 0.37%, 1.09%, and 1.28% respectively. The ChiNext Index rose by 1.86% [2][12][52] - The materials sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, saw a significant increase of 5.07%, while consumer sectors experienced declines [14][52] - Market sentiment showed a slight decrease in trading volume, with average daily turnover at 1.68 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [20][52] Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector, identified as a "key eye" in the market, rose by 2.33%, contributing to the overall market rebound [14][53] - The home appliance sector, which had lagged in the current bull market, increased by 1.73%, marking it as the only industry index to reach a new high in the past three weeks [53] Fund Flows - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.48 trillion yuan, with a rise in the proportion of financing purchases to 9.9% [26][52] - The stock ETF saw a net outflow of 6.5 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow [26][52] Valuation Metrics - The current PE ratios indicate that the market is generally reasonably valued, with the ChiNext Index at a relatively low valuation percentile of 38.04% [44][52] - The downward energy model shows that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, indicating no immediate sell signals [45][52]