证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 2 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250402 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】2024 年对外经济部门体检报告*管涛 刘立品。经常项目顺差 扩大，占 GDP 比重仍然处于国际认可的合理范围以内。货物贸易顺差创历 史新高，居民出境需求较为旺盛。 【宏观经济】3 月 PMI 数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。3 月制造业产、需延续温和 回升。3 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比延续小幅回升。高技术产业景气度明显回 升。 | 市场指数 | 收盘价 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3348.44 | 0.38 | | 深证成指 | 10503.66 | (0.01) | | 沪深 300 | 3887.68 | 0.01 | | 中小 100 | 6568.47 | (0.03) | | 创业板指 | 2101.88 | (0.09) | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 医药生物 | 3.34 | 家用电器 | ...

Group 1: Current Account and Trade Balance - The current account surplus increased by 61% year-on-year to $423.9 billion, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, remaining within the internationally recognized range[3] - The goods trade surplus reached a historical high of $768 billion, contributing 108% to the increase in the current account surplus[4] - Service trade deficit grew by 10% year-on-year to $229 billion, primarily driven by a 25% increase in travel service spending[5] Group 2: Capital Account and Investment Trends - The capital account deficit rose by 88% year-on-year to $486.2 billion, marking the third highest deficit since 2015[11] - Net outflow of domestic investment increased by 81% to $483.8 billion, with significant contributions from other investments and securities investments[13] - Foreign direct investment net inflow decreased to $18.6 billion, the lowest since 1993, indicating a shift in investment patterns[19] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Market Impact - Foreign exchange reserves decreased by $35.6 billion due to short-term capital outflow pressures, marking the fourth annual net decrease since 1994[24] - The basic international balance of payments surplus increased from $89.1 billion to $270.2 billion, while short-term capital deficit rose to $332.5 billion[24] - The net foreign asset position reached $3.2958 trillion, with a significant improvement in the private sector's net foreign liabilities, which fell to $159.8 billion[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and gross margin for 2024, with a revenue increase of approximately 74% year-on-year, reaching around RMB 2.102 billion [8] - The company's display driver segment is expanding its market share, while its electronic price tags are solidifying its leading position in the market [3][8] - The report anticipates continued growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of RMB 0.86 for 2025, RMB 1.10 for 2026, and RMB 1.28 for 2027 [5][8] Financial Summary - The company's main revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 1,209 million, with a growth rate of 0.9% [7] - For 2024, the expected revenue is RMB 2,102 million, reflecting a growth rate of 73.9% [7] - The projected EBITDA for 2024 is RMB 248 million, with a significant increase in net profit to RMB 275 million, marking a 143.6% growth [7][8] - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 21.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately RMB 10.565 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 30.1, 23.5, and 20.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a period of margin pressure due to increased fixed costs from expansion projects, while the utilization rate has declined year-on-year. Despite these challenges, the demand for driver chips is stabilizing, and the company is actively pursuing technological upgrades and new market segments such as automotive displays and AR/VR [7][4] - The report highlights that the industry is facing intensified competition, but the company's focus on technology upgrades is expected to drive long-term growth [7][4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be approximately RMB 1.501 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be around 21.8%, down by 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at RMB 160 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [7] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 0.23 for 2025 and RMB 0.29 for 2026, with a downward adjustment of 26.6% for 2025 compared to previous forecasts [6][7] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately RMB 8.17 billion, with projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 41.8 for 2025 and 33.1 for 2026 [7][6] Industry Context - The report notes that the driver chip industry is gradually stabilizing, aided by government policies aimed at boosting consumer electronics, which are expected to enhance demand for driver chips [7] - The domestic production rate for LCD driver chips has reached 34%, but high-end 28nm OLED driver chips remain dominated by companies like Samsung LSI and Novatek [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements, particularly in new materials and processes, to maintain competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Insights - The company reported a main business revenue of 86.4 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 67.3% to 1.04 billion RMB, primarily due to a decline in settlement profit margins and increased impairment losses [4][7] - The company aims for a sales target of 120.5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the actual sales in 2024 [7] Financial Performance - The company's main business revenue is projected to grow from 86.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 91.7 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.14% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 956 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.08% [6] - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.94 times [6] Sales and Market Position - In 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 114.5 billion RMB, marking a 19.4% decrease year-on-year, but it ranked 8th among real estate companies, entering the top 10 for the first time [7][28] - The average selling price in 2024 was 29,206 RMB per square meter, down 8.5% from the previous year [33] Land Acquisition and Development - The company focused on acquiring land in core first and second-tier cities, with over 70% of new land reserves located in first-tier cities [7] - In 2024, the company acquired 24 plots of land across 8 cities, with a total land reserve of 271 million square meters, a decrease of 44.8% year-on-year [7] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 29.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [25] - The company’s total interest-bearing debt was 103.89 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 71.3% [19][23]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 4 月 1 日 3 月 PMI 数据点评 机械产业出现了一定的被动去库存迹象 3 月制造业产、需延续温和回升。3 月非制造业 PMI 指数环比延续小幅回升。 高技术产业景气度明显回升。 3 月制造业产、需延续温和回升。2025 年 3 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 50.5%， 环比（2 月，下同）回升 0.3 个百分点；制造企业景气度在扩张区间延续 回升。着眼重要细分项，3 月新订单指数 51.8%，环比回升 0.7 个百分点， 其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 0.4 个百分点，实现 49.0%。生产指数实 现 52.6%，环比回升 0.1 个百分点；原材料库存指数为 47.2%，环比反弹 0.2 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 48.0%，环比下滑 0.3 个百分点；从业 人员指数为48.2%，环比回落0.4个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为50.3%， 环比回落 0.7 个百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实 现 53.8%，环比回落 0.7 个百分点，但仍稳定在较高景气度区间。 制造企业生产意愿仍在回升。3 月生产指数环比微幅回升，制造业生产活 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 1 日 688049.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 47.86 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 2.7 4.1 6.7 71.9 相对上证综指 0.4 3.7 7.1 62.2 (19%) 10% 40% 69% 98% 127% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 炬芯科技 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 146.14 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 112.27 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 6,994.09 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 425.54 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 珠海瑞昇投资合伙企业(有限合伙) | 23.18 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 3 月 31 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《炬芯科技》20241031 《炬芯科技 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant transformation of telecom operators in China, emphasizing their shift from being mere providers of digital infrastructure to becoming leaders in technological innovation, particularly in AI and computing power [2][4][6] - The report indicates that the three major telecom operators are increasing their investments in computing power, with plans for substantial capital expenditures in this area, reflecting their commitment to this strategic shift [5][6] Group 1: Telecom Industry - The three major telecom operators in China have reported substantial growth in their computing power capabilities, with China Mobile achieving a scale of 29.2 EFLOPS, an increase of 19.1 EFLOPS, and significant revenue growth in their cloud services [4][5] - China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.7%, while its total cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion yuan, growing by 17.1% [4][5] - China Unicom has also expanded its computing power to over 17 EFLOPS, with cloud revenue increasing by 17.1% to 68.6 billion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Basic Chemicals Industry - Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, with a net profit of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% [8][9] - The company reported a record net profit of 2.379 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.36% [8][9] - The company’s sales of chemical products and new materials reached 7.3527 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.83%, with significant growth in international sales [10][11] Group 3: Computer Industry - CloudSai Intelligence reported a revenue of 5.623 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with a notable growth in its non-recurring net profit by 39.84% [13][15] - The company is actively involved in the development of smart computing and big data services, benefiting from the increasing demand for digital transformation solutions in various sectors [14][15] - The establishment of a major data center project in Shanghai is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in providing intelligent computing infrastructure [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The three major telecom operators are significantly benefiting from the performance growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing business under the AI wave. They are considered defensive growth assets within the AI chain, possessing both growth potential and scarcity [3][4]. - The operators have made substantial investments in computing power, with a clear commitment to transformation. By 2024, China Mobile's intelligent computing scale is expected to reach 29.2 EFLOPS, with a net increase of 19.1 EFLOPS. China Telecom's self-owned intelligent computing power will reach 35 EFLOPS, and China Unicom's intelligent computing scale will exceed 17 EFLOPS [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on the three major operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Additionally, consider partnerships with computing service providers such as Runze Technology, Pingzhi Information, Zhongbei Communication, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, and Unisplendour [3]. Performance Metrics - China Mobile's intelligent revenue surpassed 100 billion RMB, reaching 1,004 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4%. China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 8.9 billion RMB, growing by 195.7%, while its Tianyi Cloud revenue reached 113.9 billion RMB, up 17.1% [3]. - China Unicom's cloud revenue was 68.6 billion RMB, an increase of 17.1%, and its data center revenue was 25.9 billion RMB, up 7.4% [3]. Future Investment Outlook - Both China Mobile and China Telecom have indicated that their investments in computing power will have no upper limit. China Mobile plans to invest 37.3 billion RMB in computing power, accounting for 25% of its total capital expenditure. China Telecom plans a 22% year-on-year increase in computing investment, while China Unicom aims for a 28% increase [3][4]. Industry Positioning - Telecom operators are positioned as core assets in the domestic computing power chain, with the rapid development of AI driving growth in cloud computing and data center businesses. Their strong cash flow and high dividends provide a safety net, allowing them to withstand external shocks while maintaining valuation flexibility [3].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers achieved a record high performance in 2024, with revenue of 16.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.57%, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 43.82% [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport reported a revenue of approximately 5.492 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput [3][16] - SF Express surpassed a net profit of 10 billion yuan in 2024, marking a successful year for the company [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers' 2024 revenue reached 16.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, driven by participation in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][14] - Beijing Capital International Airport's revenue for 2024 was approximately 5.492 billion yuan, with passenger throughput increasing by 27.4% and cargo throughput by 29.3% [3][16] - SF Express reported a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, highlighting its successful market expansion [3][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 30.43% [4][52] - The shipping price index showed an increase, while dry bulk freight rates decreased [4][41] - The average daily flight operations in the international sector increased by 22.27% year-on-year in March 2025 [4][84] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5]