策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 策略周报 政策落地，待新催化 政策预期阶段性落地，市场信心得到有力支撑，科技主线等待回归，配置上 "以我为主"，关注内需、科技自主相关板块。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 国新办发布会 ...

Inflation Overview - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.3% and consumer goods prices declining by 0.3%[2] - The decline in food prices was 0.2% year-on-year, a reduction of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points[7] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in April, with production materials down by 3.1% and living materials down by 1.6%[19] - Key sectors affecting the PPI decline included oil and gas extraction, refining, and various manufacturing industries, collectively contributing to a 0.24 percentage point decrease in the PPI[20] - The PPI is expected to show an upward trend later in the year, potentially in the third quarter, influenced by infrastructure investment and external demand fluctuations[21] Price Influences - International oil prices significantly impacted the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 4.8%, particularly affecting gasoline prices which fell by 10.4%[6] - The increase in service prices, particularly in travel and accommodation, contributed approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase[6] - The overall price stability indicates that domestic inflation will likely maintain a low upward trend in the near term, influenced by various international and domestic factors[7]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 11 日 2025 年一季度货币政策执 行报告 适度宽松的货币政策助力高质量发展 2025年一季度货币政策执行报告内容改动较大的部分主要是对国际经济形势 的判断和货币政策执行；在'专栏 5 从政府部门资产负债表视角对比中美日 政府债务情况'的部分，通过横向对比强调了我国政府债务扩张的可持续性。 相关研究报告 《通胀预期对美联储更重要》20250510 《1-4 月进出口数据点评》20250510 《A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报分析》 20250508 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 2025 年一季度货币政策坚持'稳'的基调。一季度降准降息缺席，但金 融体系整体流动性保持稳定，3 月末金融机构超额准备金率为 1.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [160][161] 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, CPI and PPI continued to diverge, with upstream prices continuing to decline. If trade frictions ease, the divergence between upstream and downstream prices is expected to narrow. Core CPI and food - related CPI have stabilized, indicating that consumption - promotion policies have had a positive impact on terminal consumption demand. However, trade frictions still affect upstream prices such as energy prices [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Food and Consumer Goods**: From May 5 - 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture increased by 0.81% week - on - week and 2.15% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index decreased by 5.11% week - on - week and 20.89% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline widened to 4.76%. Movie box office revenue increased by 283.76% week - on - week [2][14] - **Commodities and Energy**: Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.02% and 1.00% week - on - week respectively. The average daily price of LME copper spot increased by 1.56% week - on - week, while the average daily price of aluminum spot decreased by 0.82% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 2.39% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.48% week - on - week [2][14] - **Real Estate**: The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in April 2025 was about 229,000 square meters per day, compared with about 260,000 square meters per day in April 2024. From May 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area was about 136,000 square meters per day, compared with about 114,000 square meters per day in the same period of 2024. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value and PPI, and the relationship between the year - on - year change of daily crude steel production and the year - on - year change of industrial added value [16][22] 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the United States - The report includes charts on important high - frequency indicators in the United States, such as the year - on - year change of electricity generation and industrial output, the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index, the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts in US federal funds futures, and the relationship between the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year [84][86] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, with indicators mainly showing month - on - month growth rates. The data sources include high - frequency data on crude steel average daily production, production material price index, etc. [97] 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [147][149]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 11 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周 A 股呈现普涨行情，债市震荡分化走陡 （ 5 月 5 日 -5 月 9 日） 股票方面，五一节后本周 A 股 4 个交易日，呈现普涨行情，其中小盘股走势更强。 全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%、中证1000 上涨 2.2%、中证 2000 上涨 3.6%、微盘 股指数上涨 5.7%，已是连续 4 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 1.6%，恒生科技指数下跌 1.2%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数本周全部收涨，国防军工、通信和电力设 备领涨。周内看，5 月 2 日商务部表示美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信 息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。受此新闻影响，周二（5 月 6 日） 市场高开高走，当天超 4900 只个股上涨。周三（5 月 7 日）早晨外交部公告何立峰 副总理将于 5 月 9 日-12 日访问瑞士，期间与美方举行会谈。当天上午九点国新办召 开新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，发布会上人民 银行潘行长公布了包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项货币政策措施。当天 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - Lithium carbonate prices continue to decline, with a significant drop of over 1,800 RMB/ton after the May Day holiday, now around 65,000 RMB/ton [2][23]. - In the photovoltaic sector, China's first-quarter installations showed rapid growth, and demand from the U.S. and emerging economies remains optimistic [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, suggesting stronger supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - Wind power projects are expected to progress steadily, with demand improving by 2025, potentially restoring profitability in the complete machine and component sectors [1]. - The government report highlights the strong development of smart connected new energy vehicles, with annual sales expected to maintain high growth, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - Solid-state battery industrialization is anticipated to continue, with mass production expected by 2027, benefiting companies involved in batteries, materials, and equipment [1]. - The domestic push for electricity system reform is likely to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1]. - Hydrogen energy policies are promoting industrial development, with applications in green hydrogen and chemicals expected to open up new opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The power equipment and new energy sector saw a 4.02% increase this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. - The lithium battery index rose by 6.90%, while the nuclear power sector increased by 5.02% [13]. Key Industry Information - SNE Research reported that global power battery installation reached 221.8 GWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [2][23]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 1.14 million units, a 42% year-on-year increase [23]. Company Developments - Ningde Times became the first company to pass the new national standard for electric vehicle batteries [23]. - Longpan Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement for the procurement of lithium iron phosphate materials, with a total sales amount expected to exceed 5 billion RMB [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 71.20 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, driven by the success of its "subscription business" and "channel-first" dual transformation strategy [1][5] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 711 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 27 million, marking a turnaround from losses [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 711 million, with a growth rate of 16.4% compared to 2023 [7] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 27 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 91 million in 2023, indicating a growth rate of 5,114.8% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.29, with further increases expected in subsequent years [5][7] Subscription Business Growth - The company launched a new subscription plan in 2024, leading to an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of RMB 411 million, which is a 64.42% increase year-on-year [8] - Subscription revenue accounted for 49.31% of total revenue in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of the subscription-first strategy [8] Channel Development - The company has made significant progress in channel development, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, with revenue growth of 53.42% and 24.02% respectively [8] - Channel revenue for 2024 reached RMB 292 million, representing 41.05% of total revenue [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 807 million, RMB 904 million, and RMB 1,008 million respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 45 million, RMB 65 million, and RMB 93 million [5][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with a focus on subscription and channel strategies [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1][5]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated high growth in performance, with strong progress in product research, validation, and ramp-up, leading to an optimistic outlook [1][5]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.835 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.24%, and a net profit of RMB 534 million, up 32.51% year-on-year [8][9]. - The report highlights the steady increase in market share for the company's polishing liquids, with a global market share rising from approximately 7% to 11% over the past three years [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 1,835 million, with a growth rate of 48.24% compared to 2023 [9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 58.45%, an increase of 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 29.08%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [8]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 545.28 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.08%, and a net profit of RMB 168.83 million, up 60.66% year-on-year [11]. Market Position and Growth Prospects - The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached RMB 1.545 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.73% and a gross margin of 61.16% [8]. - The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is projected to grow from USD 3.42 billion in 2024 to USD 3.62 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% from 2024 to 2028 [8]. - The company’s functional wet electronic chemicals segment saw revenue growth of 78.91% in 2024, indicating strong demand and market expansion [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its cobalt and copper product sales, with a year-on-year increase in shipments and a diversified product range [3][8] - The company reported a net profit of 202 million RMB for 2024, representing a 45.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 43 million RMB for Q1 2025, up 39.77% year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5,950 million RMB, a 24.2% increase from 2023, with a net profit of 202 million RMB, reflecting a 45.9% growth [7][9] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,501 million RMB, a 14.56% increase compared to Q1 2024, with a net profit of 43 million RMB, up 39.77% [10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is adjusted to 0.99 RMB, with projected P/E ratios of 33.4, 25.3, and 19.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11] Product and Market Development - The company has expanded its copper and cobalt production capacity, with copper production reaching 53,300 tons and cobalt production increasing by 94.78% to 16,200 tons in 2024 [8] - The company is also developing nickel resources, with a new project in Indonesia aimed at producing 20,000 tons of nickel annually, enhancing its position in the new energy materials sector [8]

Key Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including companies like SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Guizhou Moutai, indicating potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1] - The report emphasizes the need for the power equipment industry to adapt to the increasing demand for grid expansion and upgrades due to the rise of new energy installations and data centers [7][8] - The report notes that the AI text recognition and commercial big data sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Hehe Information positioned to benefit from increasing user demand and favorable policies [11][13] Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The global power system is facing new challenges, necessitating upgrades and expansions in the grid to accommodate rising electricity demand from new energy sources and emerging technologies [7] - The report anticipates significant investment in high-voltage transmission lines, with over 20 new lines expected to be operational by 2025, which will drive demand for related equipment [8] - The domestic and international push for distribution network upgrades is expected to increase transformer demand, with China holding a 35% share of global transformer production [9] Group 2: AI and Big Data Sector - Hehe Information is recognized as a leading player in AI text recognition, with a strong C-end user base and a growing market presence, particularly in the commercial big data space [11][12] - The company has seen consistent revenue growth, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 16.5% in the smart text recognition service market from 2023 to 2030 [12] - The synergy between B-end and C-end services is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with a focus on expanding into overseas markets [13] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The report indicates that Haile Wind Power is positioned to benefit from the gradual release of offshore wind installation demand, despite facing challenges in 2024 due to project delays [19][21] - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 251.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting improved performance as offshore projects commence [21] - The report highlights the company's robust production capacity and ongoing expansion plans, which are expected to support future growth in the offshore wind sector [21]