短期拨款提案参议院受阻，美国"政 府关门"风险再起 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 政治两极化发展和利益博弈致使美国重大公共政策制定陷入僵局，美国历史上曾 多次面临"政府关门""财政悬崖"以及债务违约的风险 美国两党因医疗保健支出分歧较大而导致短期拨款提案未能获得参议院通过，美 国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果届时两党之间未能就短期拨款 提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"而努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡；本次短期支出提案 是否通过并不会影响政府债务的发行和偿付，发生政府债务违约的风险很低 须延长补贴则应附加更严格的收入限制与防欺诈机制。考虑到美国参、众两议院将进 入为期一周的休会，而目前维持美国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果 届时两党之间未能就短期拨款提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高。 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡； ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the context of preventing and resolving debt risks, the report analyzes the continuous overdue situation of bonds - issuing urban investment enterprise bills from January to July 2025, providing data support and decision - making references for the dynamic assessment of urban investment industry debt risks [4] - From January to July 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue and the frequency of overdue increased year - on - year. AA - rated and district - county - level platforms are still the main overdue groups, and the risk differentiation effect of administrative levels and credit ratings is further strengthened. Risks are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other provinces. Overdue entities face significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure, and some have experienced non - standard financing defaults. Attention should be paid to the cross - default risks caused by credit risk transmission [23] Group 3: Summary by Catalog I. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprise Bill Overdue (1) Changes in the Number of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue increased year - on - year, reflecting the low priority of bill payment when enterprise liquidity pressure increases. These enterprises were included in the continuous bill overdue list 376 times, a 33.81% increase year - on - year, involving 60 enterprises, a 15.38% increase year - on - year. The number of such enterprises remained relatively stable from January to July 2025, with the number of entities on the list each month ranging from 53 to 55, and the number of new entities each month being 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1 respectively [5] (2) Credit Rating of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with bill overdue were mainly AA - rated, and the proportion increased. AA - rated enterprises accounted for 63.33% (38 enterprises, a 15.15% increase year - on - year), followed by AA + - rated enterprises, accounting for 21.67% (13 enterprises, unchanged year - on - year) [8] (3) Administrative Level of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the proportion of district - county - level urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue increased year - on - year, and the administrative level further declined. Among them, district - county - level platforms accounted for 63.33% (38 enterprises), prefecture - level platforms accounted for 28.33% (17 enterprises), with no provincial platforms [11] (4) Geographical Distribution of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the geographical distribution of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue was highly concentrated, mainly in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, and Guizhou. The frequent occurrence of bill overdue in these regions may have a negative impact on the financing environment and increase the liquidity pressure of urban investment entities in the region. In 2025, 11 provinces were involved in bill overdue risks, with Jilin Province newly added compared to the same period last year, and Gansu and Inner Mongolia removed. Shandong had the largest number of such enterprises (23, accounting for 38.33%), followed by Yunnan (11), Henan (8), and Guizhou (7). In terms of the proportion of the number of enterprises with bill overdue to the total number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each province, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Shandong ranked in the top three [15] (5) Outstanding Bonds of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the concentrated maturity of outstanding bonds of urban investment entities with continuous bill overdue and insufficient financing ability formed a "scissors gap", and they faced significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. Non - standard financing products may be the weak link for risk exposure, and attention should be paid to cross - default risks caused by credit risk transmission. As of September 15, 2025, the total outstanding bond balance of 60 bond - issuing urban investment entities with continuous bill overdue from January to July 2025 was 126.999 billion yuan. Among them, corporate bonds accounted for 52.86% (67.134 billion yuan), medium - term notes accounted for 19.06% (24.208 billion yuan), private placement notes accounted for 17.49% (22.213 billion yuan), and short - term and ultra - short - term financing bonds accounted for 10.59% (13.444 billion yuan). In terms of maturity distribution, 39.53% (50.202 billion yuan) of the outstanding bonds will mature within 1 year, and 24.91% (31.637 billion yuan) will mature within 1 - 3 years [17] - The proportion of short - term bond maturity of overdue entities is nearly 40% (compared with 23.09% for non - overdue entities), and they face significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. In 2024, the total net cash flow from financing activities of these 60 entities was - 13.356 billion yuan, with an average of - 223 million yuan, while the average for non - overdue entities was 817 million yuan, reflecting the difficult financing situation of overdue entities. Although the net cash outflow from financing activities of these 60 entities from January to July 2025 decreased significantly compared to the same period in 2024, it was still in a net outflow state, indicating that they still faced financing contraction pressure [18][21] - As of the end of August 2025, 10 of the 60 entities with continuous bill overdue had defaulted on non - standard financing. All of them had continuous bill overdue before 2025, and they were all district - county - level entities. Among them, 8 were AA - rated and 2 were AA + - rated. Geographically, 5 were in Shandong, 2 in Yunnan, 2 in Henan, and 1 in Guizhou. Under the triple pressure of "concentrated maturity pressure of outstanding bonds + exhausted financing cash flow + non - standard default of some entities", cross - default risks should be noted [22]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut channel in September due to signs of economic recession and a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest since October 2011[1] - The August CPI increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 2.9%, indicating inflation remains within controllable limits, supporting the case for a rate cut[1] - The Fed's prolonged high interest rates have created a squeeze effect on corporate operations and consumer spending, necessitating a policy adjustment[1] Group 2: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates significantly, aiming for a 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points[2] - The U.S. government debt is projected to reach $37.5 trillion by 2025, approximately 125% of GDP, creating historical debt servicing pressures[3] - Interest payments on government debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, constituting 3.7% of GDP, with projections of surpassing 4.0% by 2025 if high rates persist[3] Group 3: Rising Long-term Bond Yields - As of early September 2025, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%, while Germany, the UK, and France saw their long-term bond yields rise to 3.4%, 5.6%, and 4.498% respectively, marking new highs since the Eurozone crisis[4] - The increase in long-term bond yields is driven by concerns over debt sustainability, political instability, inflation expectations, and technical adjustments in bond supply and demand[4][5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects deep-seated worries about the sustainability of government debt in the U.S. and Europe, exacerbated by recent global economic uncertainties[7] - Fiscal expansion policies are crucial for economic growth, but persistent high deficits and rising debt pressures challenge the sustainability of government finances[7] - The market is demanding higher risk premiums for long-term government bonds, indicating a shift from "central bank beta" to "fiscal beta" in asset pricing[7]

Policy and Market Overview - In 2025, the issuance of CMBS/CMBN and REITs is driven by the need to revitalize existing assets and reduce liabilities, supported by policies promoting a multi-tiered REITs market[4] - The issuance market remains robust with a total of 76 transactions from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.71%[7] - The total issuance scale reached 1026.75 billion CNY, up 21.36% year-on-year, indicating strong financing demand[7] Issuance and Performance Metrics - The proportion of CMBS/CMBN and REITs in the ABS market was 8.95%, showing a slight year-on-year decline[7] - The average issuance rates for AAAsf and AA+sf rated securities were 2.44% and 2.66%, respectively, down 36bps and 95bps from the previous year[19] - The average issuance rate for AAAsf rated REITs was 2.40%, slightly lower than the 2.48% for CMBS/CMBN, maintaining a consistent spread of 8bps compared to the previous year[20] Asset and Investor Insights - Local state-owned enterprises accounted for nearly half of the actual issuers, with city investment enterprises primarily issuing CMBS/CMBN products[23] - The diversity of underlying assets has increased, with significant contributions from shopping malls, parks, and energy assets, each accounting for over 15% of issuance[17] - The number of projects with specific identifiers increased significantly, with 22 projects identified, including 11 related to green initiatives[9] Future Outlook - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, with a continued trend of narrowing spreads anticipated in the second half of 2025[34] - The market for holding-type real estate ABS is expected to expand, with nearly 20 projects currently in the review stage for issuance[35] - The competition in the office and industrial park sectors is intensifying, with high vacancy rates projected to continue due to limited demand[36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the automotive finance industry, with a focus on the growth potential in the new energy vehicle and used car markets [15]. Core Insights - The number of licensed automotive finance companies in China remains stable, with a total of 25 approved companies, primarily manufacturer-affiliated [4]. - Retail loans constitute the majority of the business for automotive finance companies, accounting for 89.97% of total credit by the end of 2024 [4]. - The revised "Automotive Finance Company Management Measures" aims to enhance risk management and operational standards within the industry [5][6]. - The automotive finance sector is experiencing increased competition from commercial banks, leading to a decline in overall asset scale [7]. - The average non-performing loan (NPL) rate for automotive finance companies was 0.65% at the end of 2024, which is still lower than the banking sector average [9]. - The financing structure of automotive finance companies is under pressure due to mismatched loan and borrowing terms, necessitating improvements in liquidity management [10]. - The automotive finance companies are expanding into asset-backed securities and financial bonds to diversify funding sources [10]. - The growth of new energy vehicles and used car financing presents new opportunities for automotive finance companies [14][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive finance industry is regulated, with a focus on standardization and compliance, following the implementation of new management and regulatory measures [5][6]. - The automotive market is undergoing structural changes, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, which grew by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [7]. Financial Performance - The overall asset scale of automotive finance companies has declined from 9,891.95 billion to 8,551.34 billion from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - The average capital adequacy ratio for the industry was 26.96% at the end of 2024, reflecting a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous year [13]. Risk Management - Automotive finance companies maintain a good asset quality with a high provision coverage ratio of 450.74% as of 2024 [9]. - The industry is facing challenges from rising competition and market saturation, which is affecting growth rates and profitability [11][15]. Future Outlook - The automotive finance sector is expected to benefit from supportive government policies for new energy vehicles and used cars, which could enhance growth opportunities [14][15].

Market Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, the issuance scale of Auto-ABS decreased to 107.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.06%[4] - A total of 70 Auto-ABS products were issued, with 49 being exchange-traded ABS, accounting for 54.75% of the total issuance[4] - Credit ABS issuance dropped significantly, with 11 products totaling 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.03%[4] Issuer Concentration - The number of issuers increased slightly, with 41 issuers in total, including 27 financing leasing companies, which surpassed automotive finance companies in issuance scale[6] - The largest issuer, a Ping An financing leasing company, accounted for 22.12% of the total issuance, while the top five issuers collectively held 75.82% of the market[6] Performance Metrics - As of July 2025, the cumulative default rate for Auto-ABS products was low, with financing leasing companies averaging 2.95% and automotive finance companies at 0.63%[12] - The overall cumulative early repayment rate was 7.05%, with automotive finance companies at 7.39% and financing leasing companies at 6.72%[17] Credit Risk Assessment - The credit risk of Auto-ABS products has been decreasing, supported by initial over-collateralization and dual deleveraging effects during the product's lifespan[22] - The majority of Auto-ABS products maintained stable credit performance, with over 90% of projects showing actual cumulative default rates aligning closely with predicted rates[16] Future Outlook - The Auto-ABS issuance scale is expected to face challenges due to ongoing price wars in the automotive industry and weak consumer demand, although short-term improvements may arise from policy support[21] - Automotive finance companies are diversifying their offerings, including leasing and second-hand vehicle financing, to stimulate demand and expand their asset base[23]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

Issuance and Market Trends - The cumulative issuance scale of NPL products reached CNY 286.51 billion from 2016 to July 2025, with a significant increase in 2025, where 87 NPL products were issued, marking a 45.00% year-on-year growth[4] - The issuance scale for NPL products in the first seven months of 2025 was CNY 39.98 billion, representing a 69.77% increase compared to the previous year[4] - Major state-owned banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, accounted for 40.58% of the total issuance in 2025[5] Recovery and Performance - Pure credit NPL products showed reasonable fluctuations in recovery progress, while collateralized NPL products exhibited significant uncertainty in repayment[18] - The average deviation of actual recovery from predicted recovery for pure credit NPL products was -11.24%, with most products falling within a range of -20% to 20%[22] - As of July 31, 2025, 41.54% of the NPL products issued in 2024 had completed repayment of their priority securities, with an average repayment time of approximately 9 months, an increase from 6.6 months in the previous year[25][27] Future Outlook - The NPL product market is expected to continue expanding, driven by the release of asset quality pressure in the banking sector and supportive policies, with a projected 50% increase in registration quotas for credit NPL products in 2025[30][32] - The recovery progress of pure credit NPL products is expected to remain stable, while collateralized NPL products will face ongoing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and judicial factors[33] - The overall repayment situation for priority securities is good, but the repayment speed has slowed compared to previous years, indicating potential future pressure on certain projects[34]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the consumer finance ABS market, highlighting significant growth in issuance and market share [1][22]. Core Insights - The consumer finance ABS market has shown active issuance, with a notable year-on-year increase in both the number of issuances and total issuance volume, reaching 331 issuances and a total of 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing growth rates of 63.86% and 76.66% respectively [1][22]. - The market share of consumer finance ABS within the total ABS market has increased, now accounting for 25.90%, up by 8.99 percentage points from the end of the previous year [1]. - The report notes an expansion of market participants, with trust companies and internet institutions being the primary issuers, collectively accounting for 92.79% of the issuance volume [6][22]. - The underlying asset performance has shown volatility, but most projects have met expectations, with the cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS being lower than those from consumer finance companies [14][21]. - The credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with a significant number of securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings, reflecting improved asset pool quality and transaction structure [21][22]. Summary by Sections Consumer Finance ABS Market Overview - The consumer finance ABS market has seen a robust increase in issuance, with 331 issuances totaling 283.83 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 63.86% increase in issuance count and a 76.66% increase in volume compared to the previous year [1][22]. - The market is dominated by the exchange market, which issued 178 consumer finance ABS, accounting for 47.50% of the total issuance volume [3][6]. Market Participants Expansion - The report highlights the entry of new market participants, particularly internet-based lending companies, which have accelerated their involvement in the consumer finance ABS market [6][22]. - Trust companies and internet institutions have been the main contributors to the issuance, with trust companies alone issuing 233 consumer finance ABS worth 181.37 billion yuan, a 91.06% increase year-on-year [6][10]. Performance of Existing Consumer Finance ABS - As of July 2025, there are 616 active consumer finance ABS projects with a total outstanding amount of 448.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.44% increase from the previous year [12]. - The cumulative default rates for bank-issued ABS are close to their predicted rates, while consumer finance companies show a wider range of default rates, indicating varying asset quality [14][16]. Credit Risk and Securities Performance - The report indicates that the credit risk for priority securities has been decreasing, with 138 out of 304 tracked securities experiencing upgrades in their ratings [21]. - The overall performance of consumer finance ABS has been in line with expectations, with most projects maintaining low cumulative default rates [19][22].