Core Insights - The report indicates that in the first three quarters of 2024, the issuance of accounts receivable asset-backed securities (ABS) totaled 69 products, with a total issuance scale of 962.28 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.07% in scale despite an increase of 6 products compared to the same period last year [2][26] - The financing cost for one-year AAA-rated ABS is reported to be between 1.90% and 2.40%, with a median decrease of approximately 60 basis points year-on-year [2][15] - The actual financing entities are primarily central enterprises and their subsidiaries, accounting for 87.43% of the total issuance scale, which is an increase of 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [6][26] Issuance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounted for 61 products with an issuance amount of 916.96 billion, representing 95.29% of the total issuance, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 8 products totaling 45.31 billion, accounting for 4.71% [5] - The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale include China Railway Capital Co., Ltd., China Railway Trust Co., Ltd., China Railway Construction Asset Management Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Hairun Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and China Communications Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., with a combined issuance scale of 710.56 billion, accounting for 73.84% [5][6] Market Activity - In the secondary market, the total transaction volume for accounts receivable ABS in the first three quarters of 2024 was 720.68 billion, a decrease of 32.63% year-on-year, with 1,812 transactions recorded, down 24.81% [24] - The report notes that the average issuance scale of single products has significantly decreased, with the average issuance scale being 13.95 billion, down 18.81% year-on-year [11][26] Product Characteristics - The weighted average maturity of the accounts receivable ABS is reported to be 2.19 years, which is a reduction of 0.22 years compared to the previous year [12][26] - The distribution of securities ratings shows that AAA-rated securities accounted for 90.71% of the total issuance, while AA+ rated securities made up 5.91% and subordinate securities accounted for 3.38% [14][26] Regulatory and Filing Status - A total of 70 accounts receivable ABS special plans were filed with the Asset Management Association of China in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total scale of 982.57 billion, reflecting a decrease of 17.94% in scale compared to the previous year [22][26]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望 ,2022 年 1 | | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 日 2024 年 11 ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year[5] - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from Q2[5] - Final consumption's contribution to GDP growth significantly declined, contributing only 49.9%, down 10.6 percentage points from previous values[11] Policy Measures - A series of incremental policies were introduced in September, including accelerated issuance of special bonds, aimed at stabilizing the economy[6] - The government has approximately 5 trillion yuan available for fiscal spending in Q4, which is expected to support economic growth[6] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment maintained a high level, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the first nine months of 2024[18] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) showed a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, but this was a decrease from previous months[18] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth was 3.3% year-on-year in the first nine months, with a marginal increase to 3.2% in September[20] - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 85.8, a historical low[20] External Pressures - External pressures include ongoing trade tensions with the US and EU, which are expected to impact exports negatively in Q4[26] - The export growth rate in September was 2.4%, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from previous months[20] Inflation and Prices - CPI in September rose by 0.4%, but the core CPI was at a low of 0.1%, indicating deflationary pressures[22] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in September, affecting corporate profitability[23] Financial Stability - Government bond financing remains a major support for social financing, with M2 growth stabilizing at 6.8% in September[27] - The overall financing scale in Q3 was 7.56 trillion yuan, higher than the average of previous years[27] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for Q4 is set at 5.4% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5%[26] - The anticipated economic growth for Q4 is approximately 5.3%, supported by fiscal spending and infrastructure investment[6]

Group 1: Export Performance - In October 2024, China's export amount reached $309 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, significantly up by 10.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where the export amount had decreased by 6.6%[1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 10.8%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to the overall export growth[3] Group 2: Import Trends - In October 2024, the import amount in dollar terms decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - From January to October 2024, the total import amount was $2.14 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, which is a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to earlier figures[5] - The import of raw materials like crude oil and iron ore showed negative growth, with crude oil imports down by 2.8% and iron ore by 1.6%[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the export growth may face pressure in the future due to the fading "rush to export" effect and uncertainties following the recent U.S. elections[6] - The manufacturing PMI for October returned to above the neutral line, suggesting a potential improvement in domestic demand[6] - The overall trade data reflects a strong export performance but weak import growth, indicating a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand[6]

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年等 57 其 | 宏观经济 PMI 数据点评 | | | 增量政策效果有所显现,PMI 重回景气区间 ――10月PM ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The cumulative issuance of mortgage NPL products reached 84 transactions with a total scale of 1,000.67 billion yuan from 2016 to October 2024[1] - In 2023 and the first ten months of 2024, 24 and 19 mortgage NPL products were issued by 8 and 9 initiating institutions, with issuance scales of 246.95 billion yuan and 157.05 billion yuan respectively[1][2] Group 2: Recovery Rates - The cumulative recovery rate of mortgage NPL products has shown a declining trend over the years, with 2023 issuance showing some improvement[5] - As of the 10th recovery period, the average cumulative recovery rate for products issued in 2016 was 73%, while those from 2022 had a low of 27%[7][8] - Recovery rates for products issued in 2020 and 2021 were between 47% and 48%, approximately 10 percentage points lower than earlier years[7] Group 3: Institutional Performance - The top issuers of mortgage NPL products are the four major state-owned banks, accounting for about 68% of the total issuance, with China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading[2] - State-owned banks issued 55 mortgage NPL products, while joint-stock banks issued only 10, with the latter showing lower cumulative recovery rates since 2020[9] Group 4: Factors Affecting Recovery - The slowdown in recovery rates is attributed to declining property prices, lengthy litigation processes, and an increase in unsold auction cases[9] - The length of the first collection period significantly impacts recovery rates, with an average increase of 1.5 percentage points in recovery for each additional month of collection period[14]

Group 1: Profit Trends - Industrial enterprise profit growth turned negative in September, with a year-on-year decline of -3.5%, a drop of 4.0 percentage points from the previous value[1] - September's industrial profit growth further decreased to -27.10%, the lowest since 1998, marking two consecutive months of negative growth[1] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to September was 2.1%, a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points[1] Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in September fell by -2.8%, a significant drop of 1 percentage point from the previous month, impacting industrial enterprise revenue growth[1] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises from January to September was 5.27%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, indicating high cost pressures[1] - The average cost per 100 yuan of revenue increased to 85.38 yuan, up 0.31 yuan from the previous year, reflecting rising operational costs[1] Group 3: Sector Performance - The profit growth of the manufacturing sector turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of -3.8%, a significant drop of 4.9 percentage points from the previous value[3] - High-tech manufacturing profits showed a notable decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3%, down 4.6 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The profit margin in the automotive manufacturing sector turned negative for the first time this year, influenced by low price levels and the strategy of exchanging price for volume[4] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The effectiveness of incremental policies is expected to accelerate, as the fourth quarter faces pressure from high base effects[2] - The anticipated local government debt replacement measures may significantly alleviate accounts receivable issues, improving cash flow for enterprises[1] - Despite improvements in industrial production rates, weak domestic demand and low profit margins continue to suppress enterprise profitability[6]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance announced a package of targeted incremental policies to support local governments in addressing debt risks, with a significant increase in debt limits expected to exceed the previous 1.5 trillion yuan special refinancing bond scale[2] - Special government bonds will be issued to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of state-owned commercial banks, enhancing their risk defense and lending capacity[1] - The use of local government special bonds and tax policies will be intensified to stabilize the real estate market[1] Group 2: Debt Management and Economic Support - The current core issue of local debt risks is liquidity, and debt management aims to maintain sustainable debt levels rather than eliminate them entirely[3] - By replacing existing hidden debts with local government bonds, the short-term repayment pressure on local governments and financing platforms can be alleviated, boosting market confidence[3] - As of the end of 2023, the balance of hidden debts included in the government debt information platform has decreased by 50% compared to 2018, with further reductions expected from the new round of debt replacement[3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The fiscal policy emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, allowing special bonds to be used for land reserves and the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects[6] - The government aims to optimize tax policies related to residential properties to reduce transaction costs and alleviate the tax burden on real estate companies, thereby boosting market confidence[7] - The central government has indicated that further policies will be coordinated to ensure the real estate market stabilizes and recovers[7] Group 4: Consumer Support and Economic Growth - Increased support for key groups, including one-time living allowances for low-income individuals, is aimed at enhancing overall consumption capacity[8] - The government plans to strengthen the "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operations) to alleviate pressure on local finances and stimulate economic growth[9] - The multiplier effect of consumption on GDP is significantly higher than that of fixed asset investment, making consumer support a primary focus for expanding domestic demand[9]

Group 1: Export Data Analysis - In September 2024, China's export amount reached $303.71 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The month-on-month decline was 1.6%, marking the first negative growth in month-on-month comparison since 2018[1] - The export growth rate was adversely affected by short-term factors and a slowdown in external demand, with the China Export High-Frequency Index falling from -0.27 in August to -0.43 in September[1] Group 2: Import Data Analysis - In September 2024, the import amount in dollar terms grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - For the first three quarters, the total import amount was $1.93 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The import growth was constrained by weak domestic demand, with significant declines in the import of crude oil and iron ore due to falling prices[5] Group 3: Trade Partner Insights - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a cumulative year-on-year export growth of 10.2% in the first three quarters, contributing 1.65 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - In September, exports to ASEAN grew by 5.48%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to weakening demand in related countries[3] - Exports to the U.S. and EU saw declines of 2.8 and 12.1 percentage points respectively in September, attributed to weakening manufacturing sectors and weather disruptions[3] Group 4: Product Category Performance - In September, the export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 2.98%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to the overall export growth, despite a significant slowdown[4] - Automotive exports maintained a strong growth rate of 25.7%, influenced by the EU's tariffs on electric vehicles[4] - Labor-intensive products like furniture and clothing saw declines of -12.3% and -7.1% respectively, likely due to order shifts ahead of the Christmas season[4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI both declined, indicating that inflationary pressures are under control[1] - In September, social financing (社融) increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, which is 356.6 billion yuan less than the previous year[2] - The growth rate of M2 money supply was 6.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, showing signs of stabilization[4] Group 2: Financing and Loans - New RMB loans in September amounted to 1.97 trillion yuan, a decrease of 563.4 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low[2] - The net financing of government bonds in September was 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 540.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year, supporting social financing[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.49 trillion yuan in September, but this was 3.585 trillion yuan less than the previous year, reflecting weakened corporate financing willingness[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Response - M1 growth rate fell to -7.4%, but the decline has slowed, indicating potential for more supportive monetary policy[4] - A series of policies announced in late September, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance liquidity in the market[5] - The stock market showed positive responses, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3200 points, driven by supportive policies and increased market confidence[5]