1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8520 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 市场分析：从外盘来看，美国农业部播种意向报告及季度库存数据即将公布，若数据变化 较大或将对市场产生影响，另外 4 月 2 日美国全面关税事件暂不确定，市场不稳定性冲击 市场；从国内来看，基层农户售粮接近 9 成，较去年同期偏快，因此春季售粮压力低于往 年，且进口玉米及替代性谷物进口同比大幅减少，对玉米市场冲击减弱，市场阶段性供应 压力减轻；下游生猪产能持续恢复，饲料消费有望提升，整体供需格局趋于改善，但近期 政策粮轮换及小麦对玉米替代等潜在压制因素仍在。 参考观点：短期玉米期价区间震荡运行，短线参与为主。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 305 ...

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8460 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3040 元/吨（-90）、天津 3160 元/吨（-40）、 日照 3090 元/吨（-50）、东莞 3040 元/吨（0）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：当前处于南美收割窗口期，持续关注产区天气变化。中美贸易关税问题， 压制美豆出口需求。 市场分析：从外盘来看，3 月公布的 USDA 报告显示，3 月的数据与前两个月数据一致，产 量及期末库存同比下降，近期受关税事件影响，美玉米企稳反弹，支撑进口成本；从国内 来看，基层农户售粮接近 ...

安粮期货期权数据报告 豆粕期价小幅震荡，期货主力合约 M2505 报 收于 2826 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 460156 手，持 仓量为 1327857 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.676，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 22.03%，30 日历史波动率为 20.77%,期权隐 波小幅下降。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 3 月 27 日 玉米期价小幅波动，期权隐波保持稳定 豆粕期价小幅震荡，期权隐波小幅下降 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅波动，期货主力合约 C2505 报 收于 2266 元/吨。玉米期权成交 87703 手，持仓 量为 497290 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.864，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2505 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 74%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 10.08%,30 日历史波动率为 8.82%，期权隐波保 持稳定。 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The 2505 contract of soybean oil may run in a box - range in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate in a range, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price may be forming a bubble. It is recommended to wait patiently for weakness signals, and aggressive investors can follow the short - term trend [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6]. - **Steel**: The market sentiment of steel has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level [7]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of the eleventh round of price cuts for coke, and both coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recently, the crude oil price depends on market games, and the key support for the WTI main contract is around $65 per barrel [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price will mainly oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work in the Shanghai rubber market, and the support level is around 16,600 - 16,800 yuan per ton [12]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, there is a lack of fundamental positive drivers, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price of soda ash is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,420 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year. South America's new season may have a bumper harvest. In the short - term, the supply and downstream demand of soybean oil in China may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,150 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3,190 yuan/ton (0), Rizhao 3,160 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3,090 yuan/ton (-50) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. During the South American harvest window, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. The Sino - US trade tariff issue suppresses the export demand of US soybeans. In March - April, soybean meal supply may be tight, and it is expected to turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills has increased significantly [2]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2,087 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,317 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, etc. [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report shows a year - on - year decrease in production and ending inventory. Affected by the tariff event, US corn has rebounded, supporting the import cost. The domestic spring selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn is reduced. The downstream consumption is expected to increase, but the policy grain release drags down the market [3]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 81,420 - 81,710 yuan, up 540 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 22.88, down 6.96 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Under the background of global uncertainties and tariff expectations, there are differences between the US and non - US regions. The Fed's continuous maintenance of the status quo reflects this. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact on the copper industry is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,150 yuan/ton (-100), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,300 yuan/ton (-100) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium ore has loosened. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. With cost support weakening and inventory pressure, the price has dropped [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Spot Market**: The price of main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton, and the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts index of iron ore is 103.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 781 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 782 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The Fed's interest - rate cut signal provides some support, and the price may rebound if the demand improves [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: OPEC+ has issued a new production - cut policy. The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations are affecting the market. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the WTI price is supported around $65 per barrel [10]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: The prices of different types of rubber vary, such as 16,450 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is also increasing. The market is affected by macro - events. The price may oscillate weakly [12]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is still high. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,510.50 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the inventory is declining, and the demand is average. The market may oscillate widely in the short - term [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Combining macro, fundamental, and technical aspects, the short - term trend of the 2505 contract of soybean meal may be range - bound [11][31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - US core inflation rebounded in January 2025, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.1%, which triggered market fluctuations [4]. - Trump's erratic trade tariff policies have caused market panic and global economic instability [5]. - US trade tariffs and inflation affect economic instability [11][30]. Fundamental Analysis Cost End - China has imposed a 10% tariff on US soybeans, and US soybeans are in a weak position. South American weather has improved, with a stable expectation of a Brazilian soybean harvest and improved crop conditions in Argentina [6]. - In the March USDA supply - demand report, the 2024/25 US soybean production is 4.366 billion bushels, 4.9% higher than the previous year; crushing is 2.41 billion bushels, 5.4% higher; exports are 1.825 billion bushels, 7.7% higher; and the ending inventory is 380 million bushels, 11.1% higher than the previous year, reaching a five - year high. The global soybean supply and use forecast shows almost unchanged production, increased crushing volume, and decreased ending inventory [7]. - As of March 16, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean was 69.8%. Brazil is about to enter the export peak, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has started to rise. If the tariff war continues, it may continue to increase in the future [18]. - The net sales of 2024/25 US soybeans in the week of March 7 - 13 were only 350,000 tons, a 53% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average, lower than expected. If the tariff war continues, US soybean exports to China will slow down [14]. Domestic Supply End of Soybean Meal - In March, the arrival of soybeans was tight, the oil mill operating rate decreased, and the supply of soybean meal was tight. The arrival of soybeans in March was 5.124 million tons, a 17.85% month - on - month decrease and a 12.19% year - on - year decrease [19]. - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), due to a shortage of soybeans, the production capacity of factories decreased. The total crushing volume of 136 domestic imported soybean processing oil mills was 1.3827 million tons, a decrease of 243,900 tons from the previous week. The output of soybean meal from 166 oil mills was 1.1206 million tons, a decrease of 191,900 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 36.39%, a 6.23% decrease from the previous week [20]. Domestic Demand End of Soybean Meal - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), the trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills showed a slight recovery, with an increase in far - month transactions. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean meal was 706,300 tons, an increase of 334,700 tons from the previous week. The average trading price was 3,429.30 yuan/ton, a 3.64% decrease from the previous week. The spot trading volume was 91,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, and the basis trading volume was 614,500 tons, an increase of 366,300 tons from the previous week. The weekly提货量 of domestic soybean meal was 691,600 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week [23]. Inventory - As of March 21, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 7.1207 million tons. From March 8 - 14, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 3.641 million tons, a decrease of 591,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory from March 8 - 14 was 674,000 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous week, and the contract volume was 2.522 million tons, a 15.22% decrease from the previous week. As of March 15 - 21, the current inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.63 days, and the overall physical inventory level of domestic feed enterprises this year is slightly higher than last year [25][27]. Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market showed a trend of first strengthening and then weakening, with a resistance and decline pattern. It is expected to seek support at 2,800 yuan [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Short - term corn futures prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to participate in short - term trading. There are currently no trend - driving factors for long - term price trends [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Judgment - Market Focus: The impact of the previous tariff event has faded, and the market's focus has returned to the corn fundamentals and policy market. The increase in the release of old grain and the reduction in procurement by the China Grain Reserves Corporation have dragged down market sentiment [7]. - External Market Impact: The USDA's March supply - demand report shows a decrease in global corn production and imports in 2024/25, with a 1.29% drop in total supply compared to 2023/24. The global ending inventory has also decreased significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio is at its lowest since 2013/14. However, the US corn inventory data is higher than expected, which has pressured prices. Recently, the US corn price has rebounded due to the tariff event, supporting the import cost [7]. - Inventory: As of March 21, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was about 5.06 million tons, with a high proportion of contract grain and slow inventory depletion. The corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 2 million tons, and enterprises maintained on - demand procurement [7]. - Profit: The downstream deep - processing profit is poor due to the increase in raw material prices, and the profit of pig farming is also at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [7]. - Basis: Last week, the futures price of the corn main contract declined under pressure, and the spot price also decreased, narrowing the basis [7]. - Structure: The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [7][18]. - Technical Analysis: The Dalian corn futures May contract is expected to rebound in the short term but may face resistance and decline again. The corn price has shown obvious signs of a phased peak [7]. 3.2 Corn Inventory, Price and Import - Port Prices: In the northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level is limited, and traders are holding grain for higher prices. The morning collection volume at the northern ports is insufficient, and inventory pressure has led to a slight price cut by traders. The price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the southern ports, the inventory of domestic corn is increasing, and the market is sluggish, but high arrival costs support traders' quotes. The price at Shekou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [9]. - Imported Corn: In January and February 2025, China's corn imports decreased significantly, possibly due to a domestic corn harvest and trade - war tariffs. After the tariff increase, the volume of US corn imports is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 Profit - Downstream Starch Processing Profit: The increase in corn prices has squeezed the downstream processing profit. As of March 22, the weekly national corn processing volume decreased by 1.74% week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 1.12% week - on - week [14]. - Downstream Pig Farming Profit: The pig production capacity reduction is slow, and the profit of pig farming is at a low level. As of March 21, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 49.22 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 42.39 yuan per head [14]. 3.4 Spread and Structure - The corn futures price showed a slightly stronger oscillating trend last week. The USDA report in March indicates a year - on - year decline in production and ending inventory. The domestic spring grain - selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn and substitute grains on the market has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern is improving, but policy - grain release has affected market sentiment. The current futures price structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [18].

（3）国内豆粕供需面：因大豆到厂延迟以及停机检修，3-4 月油厂会有大范围的停机，3 月豆粕供应可能偏紧，预期后期南美大豆集中上市或将转为宽松。终端养殖需求一般，叠 加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存再度大幅增加。 参考观点：豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8500 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 80 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3140 元/吨（-50）、天津 3190 元/吨（-70）、 日照 3150 元/吨（-60）、东莞 3140 元/吨（-50）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：当前 ...

安粮期货期权数据报告 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 3 月 14 日 玉米期价小幅上涨，期权隐波小幅上升 豆粕期价小幅上涨，期权隐波迎来回升 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅上涨，期货主力合约 C2505 报 收于 2309 元/吨。玉米期权成交 51980 手，持仓 量为 441856 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.820，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2505 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 88%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 11.89%,30 日历史波动率为 8.85%，期权隐波小 幅上升。 豆粕期价小幅上涨，期货主力合约 M2505 报 收于 2901 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 454624 手，持 仓量为 1243224 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.570，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 21.37%，30 日历史波动率为 23.05%,期权隐 波迎来回升。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9 ...

安粮期货期权数据报告 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 玉米期价小幅下跌，期权隐波小幅下降 豆粕期价小幅回升，期权隐波持续下降 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅下跌，期货主力合约 C2505 报 收于 2299 元/吨。玉米期权成交 87818 手，持仓 量为 437427 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.919，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2505 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 87%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 11.51%,30 日历史波动率为 8.82%，期权隐波小 幅下降。 豆粕期价小幅回升，期货主力合约 M2505 报 收于 2877 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 330759 手，持 仓量为 1231312 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.765，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 20.76%，30 日历史波动率为 22.97%,期权隐 波持续下降。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9 ...