Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the steel and iron ore futures markets are boosted by steel mill production cut news, showing a rebound trend. For steel, with the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, steel demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the short - term steel price rebound has great pressure. For iron ore, high hot metal production and low steel mill inventories strongly support the price, but attention should be paid to the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand and steel mill production cuts on hot metal [3][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by long - position main force position - increasing. As of Friday, it closed at 3072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.57% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in major regions generally increased significantly, and overall trading improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average steel price increased by 65 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. also increased to varying degrees [5] Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.46%, a 0.36% week - on - week decrease and a 0.65% year - on - year increase; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 1.21% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 66.87%, a 3.27% week - on - week decrease and a 3.12% year - on - year decrease; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 51.05%, a 3.44% week - on - week decrease and a 2.03% year - on - year increase. The weekly steel production increased by 3.24 tons to 221.08 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Demand**: This week, the building materials trading volume and the apparent steel consumption both increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 1.12 tons to 10.85 tons, and the apparent steel consumption increased by 4.96 tons to 224.87 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent steel consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to increase slightly, while the steel inventory continued to decrease slightly. As of Friday, the total steel inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons. In absolute terms, the current steel inventory remained at a low level in the same period. Among them, the social steel inventory increased by 1.34 tons to 364.74 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 5.13 tons to 180.47 tons [7] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for steel in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a 13 - yuan increase from last week. Currently, the steel basis is near the average. It is expected that the steel basis will likely increase in the future [7] 2. Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 09 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by short - position main force position - reducing. As of Friday, it closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.23% [7][8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the price of domestic iron ore concentrate remained stable, and overall trading was average. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties at ports such as Qingdao and Tianjin changed to varying degrees [9] Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 30th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2882.3 tons, a 178.5 - ton week - on - week decrease. The 45 - port iron ore arrivals were at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons [9] - **Demand**: The current daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 319.29 tons, a 6.65 - ton week - on - week decrease; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 0.3 tons to 98.9 tons; the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a 1.44 - ton week - on - week decrease; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.81 tons, a 0.43 - ton week - on - week decrease [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 4th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons, a 51.83 - ton week - on - week decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8918.57 tons, a 71.1 - ton week - on - week increase [9] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - deliverable iron ore at Qingdao Port was 742 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a 12 - yuan decrease from last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is below the average, and it is expected that the future contraction space of the iron ore basis is limited [9]

财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-07-07 非农数据短期影响不改黄金向上趋势 上周金价下探后回升，外盘收盘于每盎司 3346 美元，沪金收 盘于每克 777 元。 从业资格号： 美国劳工部上周四公布数据显示，在截至 6 月 28 日当周，经 季节调整后的初请失业金人数下降 4000 人至 23.3 万人，创下自 5 月中旬以来的六周新低，低于经济学家预测的 24 万人。然而截至 6 月 21 日当周的续请失业金总人数仍维持在 196.4 万人的高位， 这是自 2021 年秋季以来的最高水平。 更让人关注的是美国 6 月非农数据的超预期。美国 6 月非农 就业人数意外增长 14.7 万，这不仅高于 5 月的 14.4 万新增岗位， 也大幅超越经济学家普遍预测的 11 万，显示美国劳动力市场成功 抵御了特朗普政府贸易和移民政策带来的不确定性。同时失业率降 至 4.1%，低于预估的 4.3%，显示出劳动力市场的稳健复苏。这一 数据不仅缓解了市场对经济放缓的担忧，也暂时打消了投资者对美 联储可能提前降息的预期。 CME "美联储观察" 数据显示，非农数据公布后，美联储 7 月维持利率不变的概率升至93.3%，降息25 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Short - term copper prices are expected to run weakly. Although supply tightness supports copper prices due to concerns about Trump's tariff policy implementation and low processing fees, high prices suppress downstream demand, and previous positive factors are weakening, resulting in upward pressure on copper prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. In the first half of the week, it continued the previous week's upward trend. After the release of strong US employment data on Thursday and Trump's passage of the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index rose, and copper prices fell from a high on Friday. The closing price on Friday was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of about - 0.2% compared with the previous week [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Processing fees remain in the negative range. After the copper price exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, many refined copper rod enterprises reduced production or stopped production to reduce inventory, causing the weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to drop to 63.74%, a decrease of 10.27% from the previous period and 9.74% lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 67.81%, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous period and 13.55% from the same period last year [3]. - Affected by the traditional off - season and high copper prices, new orders weakened, and enterprises mainly relied on previous orders. The finished product inventory decreased by 2.33% to 19,670 tons. Except for the relatively stable power industry, demand in other industries was generally suppressed by high copper prices [3]. - As some enterprises' finished product inventories have reached a low level, the operating rate is expected to rise to 71.56% driven by resumption of production. As of July 3, the copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas increased by 0.57 million tons to 13.18 million tons compared with Monday and increased by 0.17 million tons compared with the previous Thursday [3]. 3.3 Macro - economy - The US Department of Labor announced on Thursday that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, which led to a significant decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a rise in the US dollar. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's bill to significantly cut taxes and increase government spending, which may increase inflationary pressure, putting upward pressure on copper prices [3]. - Trump stated that countries will pay reciprocal tariffs starting from August 1, with tariff rates possibly ranging from 10% to 20% or from 60% to 70% [3].

财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-07-07 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 生猪价格涨幅明显，玉米盘面大幅下挫 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 投资咨询号： Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货震荡偏强，LH2509 合约报收 14305 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 2.25%。 从业资格号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 15.29 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.76 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 7 月 4 日，自繁自养生猪养殖利 润为 119.72 元/头，环比增加 69.47 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -26.26 元/头，环比增加 105.45 元/头；猪粮比价为 6.23，周环比 增加 0.21。 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 玉米 上周玉米期货偏弱运行，C2509 合约报收 2353 元/吨，较前周结算价下跌 1.05%。 上周全国生猪现货价格涨幅明显，并突破 15 元/公斤。月底月 初阶段集团厂出栏缩量明显，加之局部降雨天气影响，市场生猪实 际供应减少，屠宰企业收购难度增加，带动生猪价格持续上涨。目 前来看，养殖端多控量挺价操作，市场整体猪源供应较为有限，生 猪出栏节奏放缓，形成阶段性供应偏紧格局 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]