股指早报 隔夜美财政焦虑有所缓解，A 股量价背离震荡中 2025 年 5 月 23 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.23 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 和服务业 PMI 均录得 52.3，均高于预期和前值；4 月成屋销售总数年化录得 400 万户，低 于预期 410 和前值 402；数据指向美制造业和服务业保持韧性但房地 产边际回落。目前美数据依旧处于强现实弱预期的状态中。另外特朗 普税改法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，交由参议院审议。税改方案会 加大增发美债的压力，对美财政形成影响。隔夜市场走势来看，美元 指数在连续回落后有所反弹，10 年期美债收益率上涨至 4.533%，2 年 期美债收益率则有所回落，黄金收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指平 收，标普 500 指数收跌 0.04%，纳指数收涨 0.28%，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数下跌 1.18%，离岸人民币汇率震荡基本收平。隔夜走势市场对 美国财政问题的担忧有所缓解，但并未完全解除。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡下跌 0.22%，深成指下跌 0.72%，创业板指下跌 0.96%，市场呈现指数和个股齐跌走势。尽管指 数在盘中观察保持稳定， ...

股指早报 20 年美债拍卖遇冷，A 股震荡反复 2025 年 5 月 22 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.22 报告摘要： 海外方面，近期虽然美联储、美国财政部对穆迪下调美信用评级 进行了预期管理，但市场对美国财政问题的担忧并未消退。周三 160 亿美元的 20 年期美国国债拍卖最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破 5%大 关，反映投资者对美国国债的情绪进一步恶化。隔夜市场走势来看， 美债利率拍卖遇冷风险资产，美元指数进一步回落，10 年期美债收 益上升至 4.6%，黄金上涨，美三大股指跌幅均在 1%以上，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌 0.72%，离岸人民币汇率升值。关注美国资产资金 流出后流入新兴市场的迹象。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡上涨 0.21%，深成指上涨 0.44%，创业板指上涨 0.83%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹，但个股缺走弱 的走势。板块依旧是电风扇行情。从一级板块上看，煤炭、有色、电 力设备、银行涨幅靠前，美容护理、电子、社会服务、传媒跌幅靠前。 全市场 1615 只个股上涨，3599 只个股下跌。消息上看，中国与东盟 十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 整体来看，隔夜美 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in April was - 1%, lower than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of - 0.7%, indicating an economic slowdown. After Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, the Fed carried out market expectation management. Under the Fed's statements to downplay the impact, market anxiety eased. The U.S. dollar index fell and then rebounded, finally closing down 0.62% at 100.37; U.S. Treasury yields rose and then fell, finally closing up; gold closed up, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly up. The uncertainty and anxiety in the market will not subside in the short term, and the outflow of funds from U.S. assets should be tracked [1][6] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - The April economic data was in line with high - frequency data, with declines in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment. Due to the impact of tariffs in April, the decline in the economic fundamentals was in line with expectations. The Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation in May revised the pessimistic expectations, and the economy in May is expected to recover to some extent. On Monday, the market showed an oscillating and differentiated trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.08% and the ChiNext Index down 0.33%. The activity of individual stocks was fair, mainly driven by the news of the revised "Administrative Measures for Major Asset Reorganizations of Listed Companies". The environmental protection, real estate, military, and social service sectors led the gains, while the food and beverage, automobile, bank, and non - ferrous sectors led the losses. There were 3,560 rising stocks and 1,691 falling stocks in the whole market. Multiple state - owned and joint - stock banks will lower RMB deposit rates on May 20 [2][7] 3.1.3 Important Information - The U.S. Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting. The UK and the EU have reached agreements in multiple fields, and India is discussing a U.S. trade agreement. Putin is ready to cooperate on a peace - negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are signs of a cease - fire negotiation. The EU may propose to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel. In April, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic bonds by $10.9 billion, and turned to net - buy domestic stocks in late April. China's foreign trade shows resilience, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets is increasing. China urges the U.S. to correct its wrong practices on chip export controls. The current valuation of A - shares is relatively low, and the allocation value is more prominent. China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank have lowered RMB deposit rates [8][9] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [10] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The document provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [12][13] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of various spot market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation and trading volume data of the market through multiple charts [35][36][37] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The document presents charts on the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, reflecting the liquidity situation in the market [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trading logic of black commodities since April has focused on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts, with the latter boosting the former [8] - There is still an oversupply pattern in coking coal and coke, and the long - term recommendation is to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [15][67] - The key to the far - end is whether steel can be "off - season but not weak", which depends on the real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, and export situations [48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, the trading logic of black commodities was centered on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts [8] 2. Current Situation of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Monthly Supply - Demand Situation - For coking coal, from January to February, domestic skeleton coal production was 35.65 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The cumulative production of domestic mines and imports was 54.5 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.68%. From January to March, pig iron production had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The supply - demand surplus pattern still exists. For coke, from January to March, the cumulative production was 123.267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, and exports dragged down the growth rate by 0.64% [15] 2.2 Coking Coal Weekly Production and Inventory - Coking coal production and imports are still increasing, mainly due to the resumption of domestic mines. Upstream inventory shows that domestic mines are flat month - on - month and high year - on - year, while port inventories are declining. Downstream coking coal inventory is generally low, and the recent replenishment is coming to an end [20][25] 2.3 Coke Weekly Production and Inventory - Coke production has increased recently due to improved profits and increased pig iron production. If a second price increase occurs, coking profits are expected to enter the 50 - 100 range, which is a high - valuation range [30] 2.4 Valuation of Coking Coal and Coke - The document provides data on coking coal and coke warehouse receipts and basis calculations from 2023 - 2025 [34] 3. Forecast of Coking Coal and Coke 3.1 Near - Month Warehouse Receipt Game - The current coking coal position is relatively high, but compared with history, it is not extremely high. The near - month delivery game of coking coal is at a critical point, and the coke warehouse receipt game is not intense [46][47] 3.2 Far - End Key: Whether Steel Can Be "Off - Season but Not Weak" - **Real Estate**: From January to March, real estate enterprises were still in the active de - stocking cycle. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of funds in place was - 3.7%, new construction was - 24.4%, and the inventory pressure was still there [51] - **Infrastructure**: From January to March, the cumulative infrastructure growth rate was 11.5%, and the monthly growth rate was 12.5%. As of last week, 2.6 trillion of special bonds had been issued, mainly for debt resolution, and the subsequent project funds are expected to have a small negative growth [57] - **Manufacturing and Export**: The Sino - US tariff conflict has led to a change in industrial behavior and pressure on total demand contraction. The US still accounts for a relatively high proportion of China's exports, and the market has become pessimistic about global total demand [60][62] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In the past two weeks, the core of trading was the coking coal warehouse receipt game and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts. In the long - term, it is recommended to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [65][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The data indicates a marginal decline in the US real estate and manufacturing sectors. The Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's interest rate cut have affected the overnight performance of various assets. The lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates will increase asset price volatility. The statements from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May and the Politburo meeting at the end of April are important observation windows. The A-share market is in a process of strong government support and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, but the potential negative impact of the earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. The sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, and it is expected that the stock index will have a process of retesting the bottom in the short term [2][3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US new housing starts in March were 1.324 million units, lower than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. Building permits in March were 1.482 million units, higher than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 26.4, lower than the expected 2 and the previous value of 12.5. Fed officials continue to send hawkish signals, while the ECB cut interest rates by 25BP yesterday. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded, US bond yields rose, gold fell, the Dow and Nasdaq declined, the S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated [2][7]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market continued its previous rhythm. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The index was relatively stable, but individual stock sentiment was average. The "national team" played a significant role in the eight - consecutive - day rise of the market, but the market volume shrank, indicating that off - market funds are hesitant. The real estate, building materials, social services, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the automotive, non - ferrous metals, communications, and beauty care sectors led the losses. There were 3,125 rising stocks and 2,035 falling stocks in the whole market [3][8]. 1.3 Important News - Trump criticized Powell and called for interest rate cuts. There are differences within the US regarding Powell's dismissal. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU and satisfaction with the progress of negotiations with Japan. He also mentioned the signing of a Ukraine mineral agreement. Fed's Williams believes that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need for a quick adjustment. There were also a series of domestic and international events, including China - Cambodia cooperation, government policy - related statements, and China's stance on trade issues at the G20 meeting [9][10][11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Due to the lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the game between Trump and the Fed, external asset volatility has increased. The statement from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May is an important observation window. The A - share market is in a process of government rescue and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, with the Politburo meeting at the end of April as an observation window. The potential negative impact of earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. It is expected that the stock index will retest the bottom in the short term, and the increase in trading volume in the Shenzhen market is a sign of improvement. The strategy is to go long on the CSI 300 and short on the CSI 1000 in arbitrage, and gradually close positions according to market conditions during the index's retracement. For long - only positions, be stable and operate in a rolling manner without chasing the rise [3][12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also shows changes in trading volume, trading value, open interest, and net positions [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes in major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the trading volume and valuation information. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [35][36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Currently in the observation period after the escalation of tariff games, there is a risk of further escalation externally, while domestically, it is in the stage of waiting for macro - policy hedging. The risk of extreme tariff pressure from the outside has been gradually digested, but the risk of the performance reports of listed companies in late April has not been fully digested. The short - term market may still experience a shock and pullback. Although the "national team" unexpectedly supported the market on Tuesday, its intention needs to be observed. The domestic demand and technology sectors are still the key areas to focus on. An arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 is recommended, and short positions on CSI 1000 can be gradually closed according to market conditions during market pullbacks, while retaining long positions on CSI 300 according to one's own position [3][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 8.1%, higher than the expected - 14.5 and the previous value of - 20, indicating that the decline of the US manufacturing industry has slowed down. There has been no progress in the US - EU trade negotiations, and the EU expects the US to maintain its tariff policy. White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that Trump is willing to reach an agreement with China. Although the tariff negotiation is at a stalemate, there is a risk of escalation. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, the three major US stock indexes fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Continued monitoring of tariff news is needed as it will increase asset volatility [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.13%. The market showed a narrow - range index fluctuation and a differentiated stock performance. The banking sector led the gains, indicating an attempt to stabilize the index, but market risk appetite did not significantly recover. The "national team" intervened to support the market during the intraday index pullback, mainly focusing on the CSI 300, while the CSI 2000 showed no action, indicating a clear intention to stabilize the index. The beauty care, banking, household appliances, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while the military, commerce and retail, electronics, and steel sectors led the losses. There were 2,417 rising stocks and 2,811 falling stocks in the entire market [2][6] 1.3 Important News - Trump stated that the suspension of tariffs is for a transition period and for flexibility, and will accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA, which faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to US export restrictions, and its stock price fell 6% after - hours [7] - The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing [7] - US Vice - President Vance said that the US and the UK are likely to reach a "great trade agreement" [8] - Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for six months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the US Texas border came to a halt. The EU expects the US to maintain its tariffs due to little progress in negotiations [8][9] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing that greater efforts should be made to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The Chinese real estate market still has significant development potential in the current and future periods [9] - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening their comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future of strategic significance [9] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a symposium on preventing "involution - style" vicious competition in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, and initially reviewed an initiative for the healthy development of the inverter and energy storage industries [9] - A new national standard for electric vehicle batteries was announced, requiring no fire or explosion in thermal diffusion tests [10] 1.4 Today's Strategy - As mentioned in the core view, focus on domestic demand and technology sectors, and adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 [3][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, trading volume, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It presents the performance of various spot market indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and changes in trading volumes. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on indexes like the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, and provides data on index valuations, trading volumes, and turnover rates [32][33][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - It shows the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the SHIBOR interest rate levels [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares withstood extreme pressure from the US tariff hikes. The market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. The market's pessimistic expectations were eased by the injection of liquidity into individual stocks by the national team [2][5]. - The US made concessions due to the sharp decline in US Treasury bonds. The game between Trump and the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was more patient. The subsequent trade and technology wars should not be overly pessimistic. With most tariff - related cards already played, the market is waiting for the government's economic - stabilizing measures [2][9]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector that has fallen significantly in the early stage. Considering the national team's approach, the index will face short - term divergence. It is suggested to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on $232 billion worth of US imported products. After China's counter - measures, the EU also took counter - actions. Dollar - related assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and US stocks experienced panic selling. Then Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions and increased tariffs on China to 125%. Overnight, the overseas market rose sharply, with the US dollar index falling first and then rising, the US Treasury bond yield falling, gold rising, and the three major US stock index futures soaring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.87%, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.16%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 4.5%. The offshore RMB exchange rate returned to 7.35. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers believed the US economy faced risks of both rising inflation and slowing growth, and it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [1][4]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the US continued to impose a 50% tariff on China, A - shares withstood the pressure on Wednesday. The national team's support expanded from the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, injecting liquidity into individual stocks. Military industry, commerce and retail, real estate, computer, and social services sectors led the gains, while only the banking and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. A total of 4,526 stocks rose and 777 stocks fell in the whole market [2][5]. 3.1.3 Important Information - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for most economies for negotiation. During the negotiation period, a 10% global tariff would still be imposed, and tariffs on industries such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum were not included in the suspension [6][7]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on 210 billion euros worth of US goods, including soybeans, to counter US steel and aluminum tariffs. US officials believed that the EU would postpone the planned retaliatory measures [7]. - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed the economy faced risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Morgan Stanley predicted that the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut would be in September, and Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession to 45% [7]. - China firmly countered with a "combination punch", raising the tariff rate on all imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%. The white paper "China's Position on Certain Issues in China - US Economic and Trade Relations" was released. The State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to introduce new incremental policies according to the situation. The Ministry of Commerce included 6 US companies in the unreliable entity list and 12 US entities in export control [7][8]. 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The US made concessions due to the US Treasury bond slump. A - shares withstood the pressure with the help of the national team, and the liquidity problem of individual stocks was alleviated. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector. The index will face short - term divergence, and it is advisable to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various futures contracts including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as relevant indicators such as basis, spread, and trading volume and open interest changes [11][12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various spot market indices and sectors, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation levels of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and sector indices [30]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors [31][32][34]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, reflecting the market's liquidity situation [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the US announced the global reciprocal tariff plan, the overseas market followed a recession logic. It is necessary to observe the trade game among countries in the next 6 days. Only after the game reaches a balance will the market have new opportunities. Attention should be paid to the impact of the tariff increase on exports, possible production capacity backflow, and potential domestic policy support. In the short - term, the A - share index will test the lower support around 3300 points, and the trend is expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of structure, the role of dividend - weighted stocks in stabilizing the market should be emphasized [1][2][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Viewpoint 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - Trump announced a global reciprocal tariff plan with a higher - than - expected tariff. A 10% universal benchmark tariff on all imported goods will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariffs for different countries will take effect on April 9. For China, the tariff increase this year will reach 54%. After the plan was announced, the financial market clearly followed a recession logic, with US stock index futures dropping significantly, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds falling, the US dollar index fluctuating, and gold prices rising [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated slightly, and closed up 0.05%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.13%. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Due to the shrinking trading volume, there was no sector effect. The previously rising pharmaceutical sector was weak at the opening. The market turnover fell below one trillion, reaching the lowest level since January 13. Funds were waiting for the US tariff decision, showing obvious caution. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, beauty care, communication, and banking led the gains, while military industry, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and steel led the losses. There were 2755 rising stocks and 2425 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5] 3.1.3 Important News - **US Trade Policy**: Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all countries and impose reciprocal tariffs. The reciprocal tariff for the EU is 20%, Japan 24%, Vietnam 46%, and South Korea 25%. Goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement will continue to be tariff - exempt, and those not meeting the criteria will maintain a 25% tariff. The US Treasury Secretary called on countries not to retaliate. The benchmark tariff will take effect on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9. Additionally, a 25% automobile tariff will take effect on April 3, and the tariff on auto parts will take effect on May 3. Gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products are not subject to the "reciprocal tariff" [6] - **Countermeasures**: Many countries have stated that they will take countermeasures against US tariffs [7] - **Domestic Policies**: The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", promoting the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimizing rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and laying a foundation for market - determined prices. The trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. will be developed in an orderly manner [7] - **Stock Market New Accounts**: In the first quarter of this year, 7.47 million new A - share accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 31.74% [8] - **Military Exercises**: The Eastern Theater Command successfully completed joint military exercises around the Taiwan Island. The spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense stated that they will resolutely crush all "Taiwan independence" separatist acts and firmly promote the process of national reunification [8] - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported related brandy from the EU until July 5, 2025 [8] - **Pilot Projects**: Nine cities including Shanghai were included in the first - batch pilot scope for large - scale vehicle - grid interaction applications [8] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - After the US reciprocal tariff plan was announced, the overseas market followed a recession logic. It is necessary to observe the trade game among countries in the next 6 days. Only after the game reaches a balance will the market have new opportunities. Attention should be paid to the impact of the tariff increase on exports, possible production capacity backflow, and potential domestic policy support. In the short - term, the A - share index will test the lower support around 3300 points, and the trend is expected to bottom out and rebound. Investors should maintain a calm attitude and pay attention to the stabilizing role of dividend - weighted stocks [9] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, position changes, etc. It also presents multiple charts related to the basis and inter - period spreads of these index futures [11][12] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The data shows the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of various major A - share indexes and sectors, including the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. [30] - **Market Style Impact**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [31][32][33] - **Valuation Charts**: Presents charts on the valuations of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data and charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, northbound funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, etc. [34][37][40] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, reflecting the liquidity situation in the market [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - March, due to the marginal improvement of the central bank's monetary policy attitude, long - term bonds have significantly recovered. The central bank's monetary policy orientation currently has the greatest influence on bond pricing. Although the exchange - rate pressure has been alleviated, there are still many constraints on short - term policy - level interest rate cuts, but the probability of structural reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is relatively high [1][112]. - The most pessimistic point of the bond market has passed, and it is moving towards positive carry repair. In the short term, the bond market will experience a volatile market, while in the medium - to - long term, there is still room for interest rates to decline [2][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since 2025, the bond market has been continuously adjusting. In the first quarter, the short - end adjusted more significantly under the tight balance of funds. The yield curve showed a bear - steepening characteristic at the beginning and then a bear - flattening characteristic. As of March 27, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 40bp to 1.53%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 12bp to 1.8% [5]. - The bond market trend from December 2024 to now can be divided into four stages: from early to late December 2024, the curve was bull - steepening; from late December 2024 to mid - February 2025, the curve was bear - flattening; from mid - February to mid - March 2025, the curve moved upward as a whole; from mid - March 2025 to now, long - term bonds have recovered [10][12]. 3.2 Monetary Policy Orientation - Since mid - February, the monetary policy has shifted to a tight balance. Since mid - March, the central bank's attitude has marginally loosened but remains cautious. This is reflected in the early convening of the first - quarter monetary policy meeting, the central bank's net investment after the tax period, and the change of MLF to "American tender" [16]. - The central bank's demand for bond - market risk prevention and exchange - rate stability remains unchanged. The change in the statement of the bond market reflects the intention to reduce yield fluctuations, and the exchange - rate stability goal is still clear [17]. - The demand for reducing financing costs has increased, expanding from "enterprises and residents" to "the whole society", which may imply a decline in bond - market yields [25]. 3.3 MLF Adjustment - In terms of operation form, the advance announcement of MLF operation news and the change to "American tender" show the central bank's signal of maintaining stability. In terms of scale, the MLF was over - renewed by 630 billion yuan in March, which is the first over - renewal since August 2024. In terms of price, it is expected to relieve the bank's interest - margin pressure [30]. - The adjustment of MLF is a marginal easing signal, but it may also mean a reduced probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts [31]. 3.4 Funds - The funds have maintained a tight balance. Since early March, the funds rate has become more stable, with DR007 stabilizing at 1.8%, and the cross - quarter funds price seasonally rising to around 2.3%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has dropped below 1.9% [43]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, and a moderately loose funds environment is needed to avoid high issuance costs [48]. 3.5 Bank Liability - Side Pressure - Since the beginning of the year, the lack of bank liabilities has pushed up the funds rate. Large state - owned banks have a long - term problem of deposit shortage, but as of the end of February, the deposit gap has narrowed [59][66]. - Since mid - March, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield has declined across the board. As of March 27, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield of national and joint - stock banks has dropped to 1.9%, about 15bp lower than the mid - March high [67]. 3.6 Fundamental Aspects - The economic data shows strong supply and weak demand. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow down; in terms of consumption, the growth rate of some consumer goods is high, but the overall consumption recovery is limited; in terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment is slightly lower than that of the same period last year; in the real - estate sector, new construction starts remain at a low growth rate [77][78][79]. - Financial and inflation data are weak. The social financing data from January to February shows that the overall volume is acceptable, but the structure needs to be optimized. The government bond financing is an important support, while the real - economy financing demand is declining [86].