Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In late July, China experienced a wave of interest rate cuts, with the MLF unexpectedly lowered by 20 basis points (bp) on July 25[1] - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds fell to historical lows of approximately 2.10% and 2.30%, respectively, marking the lowest levels since 2003 and 2005[1] - As of August 7, the 10-year government bond yield was around 2.13%, while the 30-year bond yield was approximately 2.30%[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The GDP growth rate declined in Q2, and inflation remained low, indicating significant pressure to stabilize growth[1] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to peak, but the impact may be limited compared to last year's concentrated refinancing bonds[1] - The overall funding environment is expected to remain loose, with potential for further interest rate cuts[1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The central bank's management of long-term bonds has not relaxed, with a focus on guiding major banks to sell bonds to stabilize yields[1] - The central bank indicated that the downward adjustment of policy rates does not imply an opening of space for long-term bond yields to decline further[1] - The central bank aims to maintain a normal upward-sloping yield curve and is prepared to intervene if necessary[1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of volatility, with short-term fluctuations expected to amplify due to the ongoing adjustments in long-term bond yields[1] - There is a cautionary note regarding potential profit-taking by institutions as yields approach the central bank's acceptable levels of 2.1% for 10-year bonds and 2.3% for 30-year bonds[1] - The overall sentiment suggests a long-term bullish outlook on bonds, with opportunities to buy on potential yield corrections[1]

Group 1: Economic Trends - From 1993 to 1996, China experienced an investment boom with fixed asset investment growth rates of 50% and 69%[9] - In 1998, GDP growth fell to 7.8%, prompting a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[71] - Between 1998 and 2002, the cumulative issuance of long-term construction bonds reached 660 billion yuan, accounting for 1.2%-1.5% of GDP[73] Group 2: Inflation and Deflation - CPI recorded significant inflation rates of 14.7%, 24.1%, and 17.1% from 1993 to 1995, with a peak near 30% in October 1994[15] - The period from 1998 to 2002 saw deflation, with CPI values of -0.8%, -1.4%, and 0.4%[41] - Since April 2023, inflation levels have remained near zero, similar to the deflationary period of 1998-2002[20] Group 3: Policy Responses - Monetary policy was loosened with a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 700 basis points and a cumulative interest rate cut of 675 basis points from 1998 to 2002[71] - Fiscal policy focused on infrastructure investment through the issuance of long-term bonds, aimed at stabilizing economic growth[73] - The government faced challenges in effectively transmitting monetary policy to the real economy, leading to limited credit expansion despite a loose monetary stance[92] Group 4: External Factors - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a 20.5 percentage point decline in China's export growth rate in 1998, resulting in a mere 0.5% growth[65] - The entry into the WTO in 2001 helped boost external demand, contributing to economic recovery post-deflation[46] - The external environment remains critical in shaping domestic economic conditions, particularly in times of low inflation and weak internal demand[99]

美非农超预期，A 股量化交易监管新进度 2024 年 6 月 10 日 股指周报 股指周报（2024.6.3-2024.6.10） 报告要点： 海外方面，近期公布的美国经济数据和小非农数据均支持美联储 降息预期回升，但周五公布的美国 5 月非农数据整体超预期，使得近 期边际升温的降息预期有所回落。另外上周 G7 中两大经济体，加拿 大央行和欧央行开始宣布降息，使得海外开始进入降息周期。整体来 看上周美联储降息预期处于首先回升，之后回落的状况，但整周因受 公布的美国 PMI、小非农和欧央行降息影响，整体处于美债收益率回 落，美股上涨的状态。本周三美国会公布 CPI 数据，数据会对上周五 美超预期的非农数据进行验证，从而影响到周四的美联储利率决议， 而在周四利率决议中，美联储会给市场传递出更为明确的后续利率路 径，而这也会对近期市场预期的左右摇摆来调整。 国内方面，5 月出口超预期，主因外需走强对我国出口起到拉动， 另外拜登宣布加征关税引发的抢出口对出口也存在影响，从 5 月 PMI 中新订单指数大幅回落中也需要注意后续出口持续走强存在隐忧。本 周将公布 5 月金融数据，虽然房地产销售依旧疲弱，但政府专项债提 速 ...