Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Trump announced tariff rates on different countries, with most effective dates postponed to August 1st, increasing market uncertainty and causing the overnight market's risk aversion sentiment to rise. The A - share market is back to the situation where dividend - paying sectors such as banks and power protect the market, showing obvious characteristics of stock - based game, and the index will continue to fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. It is expected that the market will show divergence today [2][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods effective August 1st, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on countries like Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Laos, with the effective dates extended to August 1st. The Fed research report warns of the risk of zero interest rates, and Fed Chair candidate Wash advocates for lower interest rates. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, gold closed slightly down, U.S. stock indexes fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Monday, the broader market opened lower and fluctuated slightly up by 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21%. The market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The implementation of the quantitative new rules on the first day did not have a significant negative impact on the market. Public utilities, real estate, light manufacturing, and environmental protection sectors led the gains, while coal, pharmaceutical biology, communication, and household appliances sectors led the losses [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea at 25% and 25% - 40% on others from August 1st. The EU claims good progress in trade negotiations with the U.S., and there are calls for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed warns of zero - interest - rate risks. China aims to have over 100,000 high - power charging facilities by the end of 2027. China opposes tariff and trade wars. China's gold reserves increased for the 8th consecutive month, and foreign exchange reserves rose in June [6][7][8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Trump's announced tariffs are similar to those in April, with some increases and decreases, and all effective dates are postponed to August 1st. The uncertainty of counter - measures from other countries increases market uncertainty, and the risk aversion sentiment has risen. The A - share market is back to the situation where dividend - paying sectors protect the market, and the index will continue to fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points, with expected market divergence today [2][9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes [11][12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The performance of various spot market indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is presented, including current points, daily, weekly, and monthly percentage changes, and trading volume. The impact of market styles on major indexes is analyzed, and data on the valuation of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are provided [33][34][35]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates are presented, including currency injection, withdrawal, and net injection, as well as different - term Shibor interest rates [49][50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm data has significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, while US stocks have shown an independent upward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible tariff agreements the US may reach with other countries before July 9. For China, the second-phase trade negotiation between China and the US has been implemented, with the restrictions on chip design EDA and ethane lifted, and the tariff negotiation related to China may be postponed to August. The domestic A-share market remains in a structural stock game. Although the index rebounded on Thursday, the trading volume shrank, and the index may face divergence in the short term. The index will generally fluctuate between 3400 - 3500, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [2][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Market - US non-farm employment in June was 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market and significantly reducing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in July dropped to 4.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25BP rate cut in September dropped to 64%. Affected by the decline in rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rose, the yields of short - and long - term US bonds increased, gold prices fell, crude oil prices closed down, but the three major US stock indexes rose independently, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Attention should be paid to US tariff news as the July 9 tariff suspension deadline approaches [1][6]. Domestic Market - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated, and rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend. Blue - chip stocks such as banks dragged down the market, showing a pattern of stronger Shenzhen and weaker Shanghai. Ningde Times had the greatest contribution to the rise of the ChiNext Index. Sector rotation continued, and the sustainability of the marine economy and anti - involution sectors was poor. The consumer electronics sector strengthened, mainly stimulated by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Although the technology sector remained active, the lack of incremental funds in the market made it difficult to drive up. In terms of sectors, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology, communication, and building materials led the gains, while coal, transportation, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the losses. There were 3,270 rising stocks and 1,863 falling stocks in the whole market [1][7]. 2. Important Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, stating that tariffs could return to the level of April 2, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. - Trump will send letters to trade partners as early as Friday local time to inform them of unilateral tariff rates. - EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration before July 9; Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said Trump may be misled on tariff issues; Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US; Canadian Finance Minister said Canada can reach an optimal trade agreement with the US and there will be no more digital tax. - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed in the House of Representatives with two Republican lawmakers defecting, and Trump will sign it early on Saturday. - Trump had a phone call with Putin to discuss the Middle East situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and also plans to have a phone call with Zelensky on Friday to discuss military aid issues. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that rare earths will not be a problem between China and the EU. - The US - Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that relevant agreements should not harm third - parties. - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [8][9][10]. 3. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [15][16]. 4. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of major domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of various sectors and the impact of market styles on different indexes [39][40][41]. 5. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the interest rates of different tenors of Shibor [54][55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus [6][9][12]. - Due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US ADP employment change in June was -33,000, significantly lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000. This was the first employment contraction since March 2023, indicating weakness in the US labor market. As the employment data weakened, the market increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, with the probability rising from 20% to 27.4% [6]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will implement a 0% tariff on US imports, while Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face a 20% tariff, and goods deemed to be "transshipped through Vietnam" will be subject to a 40% tariff, targeting China. The previous agreement framework with China may face uncertainties. In the overnight market, although the US employment data was weak, the trade news had a greater impact. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields declined at both short and long ends, gold prices increased, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly fell, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate remained basically flat. Attention should be paid to the US non-farm payroll data today, as the weak ADP data does not necessarily mean the non-farm payroll data will be weak [6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.09%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13%. The market showed a differentiated adjustment trend. Although the broader market was supported by banks and did not decline, individual stocks tumbled. Similar to the previous rise of Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong stocks, Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. in Hong Kong stocks soared by 91.11%, mainly affected by a 30% limit on sintering machines in Tangshan, which also drove up the A-share steel sector and other cyclical sectors. Cyclical industries seem to be starting a new round of supply-side reform, consistent with the "anti-involution" tone. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors may be problematic. Among sectors, steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and banking rose, while electronics, communications, military, computer, and beauty care sectors led the decline. There were 1,943 rising stocks and 3,282 falling stocks in the entire market [2][7]. - The People's Bank of China issued the "Administrative Measures for Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Industry Institutions," requiring industry institutions to submit large transaction reports within 5 working days for transactions with a single or daily cumulative amount of over RMB 100,000 [7]. 1.3 Important News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on any goods entering US territory, and a 40% tariff will be imposed on transshipped goods. Vietnamese state media reported that the US will significantly reduce tariffs on various Vietnamese products [9]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that there is currently no urgency to change policies [10]. - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technology empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over RMB 300 billion to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the RMB 800 billion list of "two major" construction projects for this year has been fully issued [10]. - European Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting is an important meeting at a critical juncture [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will prevent and control risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds in an orderly manner, and continuously optimize capital market mechanisms such as stock and bond financing and mergers and acquisitions to promote the efficient concentration of factors in the most promising areas [10]. - In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [11]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in June were 1.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 29% [11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus. In the A-share market, due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as their corresponding futures contracts such as IH2507, IF2507, IC2507, and IM2507 [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, current points, daily, weekly, and monthly returns of major indices such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as the performance of various sectors [39]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of major indices [40][41]. - Additionally, the report shows the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases [43][47][49]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides data on central bank open market operations and Shibor interest rate levels to track market liquidity [54][55][56].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict alleviated market concerns, boosting the risk appetite of A - shares on Tuesday. The decline of A - share sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict indicates that the impact of external events on A - shares has ended, and A - shares will return to their own rhythm and logic. The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [4][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US economic data shows a slowdown, with the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 93, lower than the expected 100 and the previous value of 98.4; the April FIFA House Price Index monthly rate at - 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0; and the April SPCS20 City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate at 3.4%, lower than the expected 4% and the previous value of 4.07%. Fed Chairman Powell's attitude is neutral. Overnight, US stocks and bonds rose, the US dollar index, gold, and crude oil fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 3.31%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market showed a large - volume upward trend, with the broader market rising 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. The direct cause of the market rise was the easing of the Middle East situation, and the indirect cause was the release of pent - up emotions of internal funds after a long - term consolidation. The sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict, such as oil and gas and shipping, fell, while solid - state batteries, robots, automobiles, and securities led the gains. The Ministry of Commerce will organize a new - energy vehicle consumption season in thousands of counties and towns in 2025 [3][7]. 1.3 Important Information - **Middle East Situation**: Trump's views on the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement, the erasure of oil - price increases since the June 13 Israeli attack on Iran, US intelligence reports on the strike on Iran, the halt of further Israeli military strikes on Iran after the US - Israeli leaders' call, and Iran's readiness for dialogue [8]. - **Federal Reserve**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate adjustments, with some believing that a wait - and - see approach is appropriate, and some expecting a rate cut later this year [9]. - **US Senate**: The Republican leader in the US Senate plans to vote on Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" on Friday [9]. - **Central Bank**: On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year, and six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption. The central bank will also formulate a new - stage financial technology development plan [10][11]. - **Ministry of Commerce**: It will organize the 2025 New - Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns [12]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures. In the short term, focus on the activity of AI and large - finance sectors, and operating according to the 20 - day moving average has a relatively high winning rate [13]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and CSI 500 contracts, including the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [15][20][22]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume and turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts of central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US released no significant data. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Geopolitical news has led to significant asset fluctuations. A-shares fell on Thursday due to the lack of economic利好 policies from the financial meeting and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil. The subsequent trend of A-shares may either retrace to the gap on April 10 or continue to move sideways [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US released no significant data overnight. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, causing market uncertainty. The US dollar index closed down, US Treasury yields at both short and long ends declined, gold rose slightly, crude oil opened lower and closed down, the US stock market was closed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened low and closed down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.36%. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sector among the primary sectors rose, while textile and apparel, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals led the decline. There were 716 rising stocks and 4,643 falling stocks in the entire market. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will accelerate the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [5] 1.3 Important News - The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, with increasing internal differences in the voting ratio. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Israel and Iran have been in conflict for seven days, with various parties expressing different stances. There are also news about tariffs, the release of a new index by China Securities Index, a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a notice from the Personal Insurance Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight, the US stock market was closed, and the trend of crude oil prices indicates the continued impact of Middle East geopolitics. A-shares fell on high volume yesterday, similar to the trend on May 23. In the short term, a double-top pattern seems to be forming. The subsequent trend is expected to be either a retracement to the gap on April 10 or continued sideways movement [2][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as relevant charts showing their basis and inter - contract spreads [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including their current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation metrics. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes and presents relevant valuation and trading volume charts [36][37][40] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates to reflect the market's liquidity situation [52][53][54]

股指早报 政策侧重顶层设计，A 股仍需震荡整固 2025 年 6 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日凌晨，美联储公布 6 月议息决议维持利率不变， 对今年预期依旧降息两次，但从点阵图来看，预期今年降息 2 次的人 数变得少，相比 3 月美联储官员整体边际转鹰。对经济展望来看，美 联储对今年 GDP 预估下调至 1.4%，将通胀预期上调至 3%。这也意味 美联储对美经济陷入滞涨的担忧上升。之后美联储主席鲍威尔在发言 中罕见提及关税的负面影响。综合来看，此次美联储释放的信号只想 后续美联储不会贸然行动，更多会是数据追踪来决策后续货币政策。 另外中东地区地缘政治继续动荡。从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数收 涨，美债收益率先跌后涨，10 年期美债收益率最终收微跌，黄金收 跌，原油收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指标普收跌，纳指收涨，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡收涨。从资产走势来 看，目前市场焦点依旧是中东方面。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.04%，深成指上涨 0.24%，创业板指上涨 0.23%，市场呈现指数探底回升但个股却下跌 的走势。市场对陆家嘴论坛的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [1][3][14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals that may be released at the Lujiazui Forum. The A-share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. However, the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [3][14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [3][14] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June was - 16, significantly lower than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2, indicating a cooling of the US manufacturing industry. [1][5] - Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to be prepared to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US. [1][5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, but extreme situations such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have not occurred. Market sentiment has cooled, with the US dollar index closing down, US Treasury yields falling at both short and long ends, gold and crude oil prices dropping, and the three major US stock indices rising. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly higher. The market believes the Middle East conflict will not escalate. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8%, lower than the previous value of 6.1%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 6.4%, higher than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.1%. Holidays and national subsidies significantly supported consumption. [2][6] - On Monday, the market opened lower and then fluctuated higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend, with weak offensive momentum after the early - morning rebound and then moving sideways. Trading volume decreased. [2][6] - In terms of sectors, media, communication, computer, and real estate led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, non - ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led the losses. There were 3557 rising stocks and 1638 falling stocks in the whole market. [2][6] 1.3 Important News - **Tariffs**: Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US, though the EU says this is speculative. India and the US plan to sign a temporary agreement by July 9. The progress of Japan - US trade negotiations is unclear. Trump said the US - Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada wants the US to cancel tariffs on its exports. [7] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The US "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East. Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities. Netanyahu does not rule out assassinating Khamenei. Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement and is considering going to the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister said Iran has never left the negotiation table but is currently focused on dealing with aggression. [8][9] - **Other News**: Trump will delay sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. The cooperation between OpenAI and Microsoft is at risk. Hong Kong's Monetary Authority will process stablecoin license applications as soon as possible. China is deeply concerned about the Israel - Iran conflict. The National Medical Products Administration has drafted a consultation paper on optimizing the review and approval of innovative drug clinical trials. Dalian and Hubei will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists starting from July 1, 2025. [10][11][13] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum. The A - share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. The capital - stock game situation in sectors remains unchanged. The Monday rebound alleviated market concerns about index adjustments, but the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [14] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. [16] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions. [17] - **Futures Basis and Spread Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis and spread trends of different futures contracts over time, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. [19][24][28] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change rates, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as various industry sectors. [40] - **Market Style Impact on Indexes**: It analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [41][42] - **Index Valuation and Related Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan industry sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in trading value. [43][47][49] 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations and Interest Rates**: The report includes charts showing the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate levels over time. [54][55][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May, the core of black commodity trading was the confirmation of loose coking coal supply and the decline of warehouse receipts. The accelerated decline of thermal coal spot prices and the seasonal peak - to - trough decline of hot metal led to a pessimistic outlook on thermal coal and a weakening expectation of steel demand, accelerating the decline of coking coal prices and dragging down the overall black price center. In June, due to marginal improvement in macro - expectations, political turmoil in Mongolia, and domestic safety production month activities, the market focused on supply reduction, etc., leading to a rebound of coking coal to repair the basis [5]. - Overall, short - term steel demand is expected to remain stable, hot metal shows resilience, the contradictions of coking coal and coke are generally weakening, but the price ceiling pressure is still obvious. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and maintain the strategy of short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the trading logic was similar to April, centered on the confirmation of loose coking coal and the decline of warehouse receipts. The accelerated decline of thermal coal prices and the peak - to - trough decline of hot metal led to more capital inflows and price drops. In June, the logic changed due to macro - factors, and coking coal rebounded to repair the basis [5]. 2. Current High - Frequency Data of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Coking Coal Supply Turned Negative in May, Showing the Feature of "Production Based on Sales" - Since May, with the accelerated decline of coal prices and continuous discount in the futures market, high inventory at the pithead forced production cuts, high port inventory restricted customs clearance, and imports decreased without hedging. The weekly growth rates of Mongolian coal customs clearance, sea - borne coal arrival, and domestic mine production all declined, showing the feature of "production based on sales". But supply may recover when prices stabilize [19]. 2.2 Coking Coal Inventory Concentrated in the Upstream, with Low Inventory in the Downstream - Inventory accumulation was mainly in upstream mines and import ends, while inventory in downstream coking links was low. This situation led to production cuts and import reduction, and raised concerns about downstream restocking. However, these phenomena are the result of overall demand decline, and short - term supply reduction has limited price - supporting effect [27]. 2.3 After Basis Repair, Coking Coal Needs to Face Terminal Demand - With the decline of spot prices in May and the rebound of futures prices in June, the coking coal basis shrank rapidly. Now, it is necessary to answer whether demand can support the market after the marginal recovery of supply, but the current supply - demand pattern cannot provide an accurate answer [37]. 2.4 The Emergence of the Israel - Iran Conflict Brought New Entrants to Coking Coal - After the sudden intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil prices soared, and new funds entered the coking coal market based on the logic that rising crude oil prices would drive up thermal coal and then coking coal. However, historical data shows that the short - term correlation between crude oil and domestic and foreign thermal coal is not high [43]. 2.5 Coke Production and Profit Remained Stable - During the price decline, coke profit loss was small, and since May, it has been continuously repairing. Considering the low - cost coking coal in June, coke profit and production are expected to be sustainable. If downstream demand cannot keep up, coke may be the first to deteriorate [51]. 2.6 Coke Faced Greater Short - Term Inventory Pressure - Due to the continuous improvement of coking profit and the weakening of downstream hot metal demand, coke inventory pressure did not ease in May. Inventory accumulation was mainly in coking plants, and downstream steel mills had strong bargaining power. Even if there is an unexpected reduction in coking coal supply, the coke segment will still be weak [55]. 2.7 The Decline of Hot Metal Slowed Down, and There Were Still Few Maintenance Plans - Since May, hot metal production peaked as expected, but the decline slowed down at the end of May, which was related to the accelerated reduction of scrap steel. In the future, hot metal is expected to remain at a high level, so the decline of direct demand for coking coal and coke may not be smooth [62]. 2.8 Coke Turned to Discount, but Profit Improved - The coke futures market turned into a premium for wet - quenched coke. In the current situation, it may not have a positive impact and may even keep production and profit at a high level for a longer time, which is worthy of attention [66]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Coking coal supply - demand: The accelerated price decline in May led to continuous marginal reduction in supply. The supply - demand contradiction improved, and this situation continued in June, but the improvement will disappear as prices rise [74]. - Coke supply - demand: The cost of coke collapsed faster, and it will be in a low - cost pattern in June. Supply elasticity is high, while demand may face an increase in hot metal. Overall, the supply - demand of coke in June is expected to remain loose [74]. - Steel demand: Real - estate high - frequency data is weak, infrastructure funds have limited improvement and are in the off - season, and the manufacturing industry shows resilience but also has long - term risks. Short - term steel demand is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and maintain short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [74].