股指早报 20 年美债拍卖遇冷，A 股震荡反复 2025 年 5 月 22 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.22 报告摘要： 海外方面，近期虽然美联储、美国财政部对穆迪下调美信用评级 进行了预期管理，但市场对美国财政问题的担忧并未消退。周三 160 亿美元的 20 年期美国国债拍卖最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破 5%大 关，反映投资者对美国国债的情绪进一步恶化。隔夜市场走势来看， 美债利率拍卖遇冷风险资产，美元指数进一步回落，10 年期美债收 益上升至 4.6%，黄金上涨，美三大股指跌幅均在 1%以上，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌 0.72%，离岸人民币汇率升值。关注美国资产资金 流出后流入新兴市场的迹象。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡上涨 0.21%，深成指上涨 0.44%，创业板指上涨 0.83%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹，但个股缺走弱 的走势。板块依旧是电风扇行情。从一级板块上看，煤炭、有色、电 力设备、银行涨幅靠前，美容护理、电子、社会服务、传媒跌幅靠前。 全市场 1615 只个股上涨，3599 只个股下跌。消息上看，中国与东盟 十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 整体来看，隔夜美 10 ...

股指早报 美 10 年期利率回到 4.5%附近，A 股震荡蓄势中 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.20 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，低于预期 0.9% 和前值-0.7%，数据指向美经济的降温。另外在上周末国际信用评级 机构穆迪将美国的信用评级下调后，美联储开始对此进行市场预期管 理，多位美联储官员密集发表讲话，美联储副主席杰斐逊表示将穆迪 调降美国评级作为制定政策的一般数据处理。美联储威廉姆斯表示目 前未见资金大规模撤离美国资产，货币政策处于良好位置。达拉斯联 储主席洛根表示美联储应考虑加强机制，以在市场出现压力时更有效 地防止货币市场利率飙升。在美联储密集发言淡化信用下调影响下， 市场焦虑情绪有所缓解，隔夜美元指数大幅下跌后反弹，最终收跌 0.62%，报 100.37；美债收益率短端和长端均大幅上涨后回落，最终 收涨；黄金收涨，美三大股指集体收微涨。原先美国巨额债务是灰犀 牛，目前被市场点名明后，市场的不确定和焦虑不会在短时间消退， 后续需对此进行跟踪，关注美国资产资金的流出状况。 国内盘面上看，周一公布 4 月经济数据，与高频数据指向一致， 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trading logic of black commodities since April has focused on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts, with the latter boosting the former [8] - There is still an oversupply pattern in coking coal and coke, and the long - term recommendation is to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [15][67] - The key to the far - end is whether steel can be "off - season but not weak", which depends on the real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, and export situations [48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, the trading logic of black commodities was centered on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts [8] 2. Current Situation of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Monthly Supply - Demand Situation - For coking coal, from January to February, domestic skeleton coal production was 35.65 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The cumulative production of domestic mines and imports was 54.5 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.68%. From January to March, pig iron production had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The supply - demand surplus pattern still exists. For coke, from January to March, the cumulative production was 123.267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, and exports dragged down the growth rate by 0.64% [15] 2.2 Coking Coal Weekly Production and Inventory - Coking coal production and imports are still increasing, mainly due to the resumption of domestic mines. Upstream inventory shows that domestic mines are flat month - on - month and high year - on - year, while port inventories are declining. Downstream coking coal inventory is generally low, and the recent replenishment is coming to an end [20][25] 2.3 Coke Weekly Production and Inventory - Coke production has increased recently due to improved profits and increased pig iron production. If a second price increase occurs, coking profits are expected to enter the 50 - 100 range, which is a high - valuation range [30] 2.4 Valuation of Coking Coal and Coke - The document provides data on coking coal and coke warehouse receipts and basis calculations from 2023 - 2025 [34] 3. Forecast of Coking Coal and Coke 3.1 Near - Month Warehouse Receipt Game - The current coking coal position is relatively high, but compared with history, it is not extremely high. The near - month delivery game of coking coal is at a critical point, and the coke warehouse receipt game is not intense [46][47] 3.2 Far - End Key: Whether Steel Can Be "Off - Season but Not Weak" - **Real Estate**: From January to March, real estate enterprises were still in the active de - stocking cycle. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of funds in place was - 3.7%, new construction was - 24.4%, and the inventory pressure was still there [51] - **Infrastructure**: From January to March, the cumulative infrastructure growth rate was 11.5%, and the monthly growth rate was 12.5%. As of last week, 2.6 trillion of special bonds had been issued, mainly for debt resolution, and the subsequent project funds are expected to have a small negative growth [57] - **Manufacturing and Export**: The Sino - US tariff conflict has led to a change in industrial behavior and pressure on total demand contraction. The US still accounts for a relatively high proportion of China's exports, and the market has become pessimistic about global total demand [60][62] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In the past two weeks, the core of trading was the coking coal warehouse receipt game and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts. In the long - term, it is recommended to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [65][67]

特朗普与美联储博弈，A 股缩量维持存量博弈 2025 年 4 月 18 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.18 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 3 月新屋开工总数年化录得 132.4 万户，低于预期 144.6 和前值 145.9 万户；美 3 月营建许可总数录得 148.2 万户，高 于预期 144.6 和前值 145.9 万户；4 月费城联储制造业指数录得- 26.4，低于预期 2 和前值 12.5。数据指向美房地产和制造业的边际 回落。另外美联储官员继续向市场释放鹰派信号，美联储威廉姆斯表 示货币政策处于良好位置，目前不认为需要很快调整利率。而欧央行 昨日宣布降息 25BP。在欧央行降息，美联储鹰派的影响下，隔夜美元 指数下跌有所企稳，最终收涨；美债收益率均有所反弹；黄金回落； 美三大股指道指和纳指下跌，标普收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌， 离岸人民币汇率震荡。目前特朗普关税政策未有新进展，美联储又迟 迟不降息，内外部压力较大下会推高资产价格波动，5 月初美联储的 议息会议的表态是一个较好跟踪窗口。 国内盘面上看，周四延续之前的行情节奏，大盘上涨 0.13%，深 成指下跌 0.16%，创业板指上涨 0.09%， ...

股指早报 关税谈判观察期，A 股业绩报风险仍需注意 2025 年 4 月 16 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.16 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月纽约联储制造业指数录得-8.1%，高于预期- 14.5 和前值-20，数据指向美制造业回落但幅度放缓。关税方面，据 外媒报道美欧贸易谈判零进展，欧盟预计美国将维持对其的关税政 策。白宫新闻秘书莱维特强调特朗普明确表示他愿意与中国达成协 议，因此，中国需要与美国达成协议。虽然目前关税谈判状态处于僵 持中，但其中隐含升级的风险。隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数小幅反 弹，美债收益率有所回落，黄金上涨，美三大股指均下跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率贬值，继续跟踪关税方面消息， 这会加大资产的波动。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘低开震荡上涨 0.15%，深成指下跌 0.27%，创业板指下跌 0.13%，市场呈现指数窄幅震荡，个股分化行情 走势。板块上银行涨幅居前，说明主要还是稳指数，市场风险偏好并 未明显回升。另外值得注意的是盘中指数回踩的过程中出现国家队的 护盘，且主要聚焦在沪深 300，小票中证 2000 则未有动作，这说明 目前国家队稳指数的意图还是很明显。板块 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares withstood extreme pressure from the US tariff hikes. The market showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. The market's pessimistic expectations were eased by the injection of liquidity into individual stocks by the national team [2][5]. - The US made concessions due to the sharp decline in US Treasury bonds. The game between Trump and the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was more patient. The subsequent trade and technology wars should not be overly pessimistic. With most tariff - related cards already played, the market is waiting for the government's economic - stabilizing measures [2][9]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector that has fallen significantly in the early stage. Considering the national team's approach, the index will face short - term divergence. It is suggested to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on $232 billion worth of US imported products. After China's counter - measures, the EU also took counter - actions. Dollar - related assets such as the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and US stocks experienced panic selling. Then Trump announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions and increased tariffs on China to 125%. Overnight, the overseas market rose sharply, with the US dollar index falling first and then rising, the US Treasury bond yield falling, gold rising, and the three major US stock index futures soaring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.87%, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 12.16%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 4.5%. The offshore RMB exchange rate returned to 7.35. The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers believed the US economy faced risks of both rising inflation and slowing growth, and it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged [1][4]. 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the US continued to impose a 50% tariff on China, A - shares withstood the pressure on Wednesday. The national team's support expanded from the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, injecting liquidity into individual stocks. Military industry, commerce and retail, real estate, computer, and social services sectors led the gains, while only the banking and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. A total of 4,526 stocks rose and 777 stocks fell in the whole market [2][5]. 3.1.3 Important Information - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for most economies for negotiation. During the negotiation period, a 10% global tariff would still be imposed, and tariffs on industries such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum were not included in the suspension [6][7]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on 210 billion euros worth of US goods, including soybeans, to counter US steel and aluminum tariffs. US officials believed that the EU would postpone the planned retaliatory measures [7]. - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed the economy faced risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Morgan Stanley predicted that the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut would be in September, and Goldman Sachs lowered the probability of a US recession to 45% [7]. - China firmly countered with a "combination punch", raising the tariff rate on all imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%. The white paper "China's Position on Certain Issues in China - US Economic and Trade Relations" was released. The State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to introduce new incremental policies according to the situation. The Ministry of Commerce included 6 US companies in the unreliable entity list and 12 US entities in export control [7][8]. 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The US made concessions due to the US Treasury bond slump. A - shares withstood the pressure with the help of the national team, and the liquidity problem of individual stocks was alleviated. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - export trade sector. The index will face short - term divergence, and it is advisable to hold the arbitrage of going long on the CSI 300 or SSE 50 and shorting the CSI 1000 for observation [2][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various futures contracts including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as relevant indicators such as basis, spread, and trading volume and open interest changes [11][12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various spot market indices and sectors, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation levels of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and sector indices [30]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors [31][32][34]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, reflecting the market's liquidity situation [49].

股指早报 对等关税方案落地，外围走衰退逻辑 2025 年 4 月 3 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.3 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日特朗普宣布全球对等关税方案，关税超预期。针 对所有进口商品的普遍性的基准关税加征 10%，将于 4 月 5 日生效。 对等关税则在 4 月 9 日生效，分国别来看，中国 34%、欧盟 20%、越 南 46%、瑞士 31%、日本 24%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、泰国 36%、印尼 32%、英国 10%、菲律宾 17%，柬埔寨征收最高 49%。对等关税为叠加 税率，对中国来说，今年 2 月和 3 月已经加征 20%，此次又是 34%， 那么今年对中国加征税率为 54%。对中国、越南、瑞士等国家加征关 税远超预期。因关税方案宣布是美股收盘后，方案宣布后，金融市场 明显走衰退逻辑，美股期指大跌，纳指和标普 500 的期指分别下跌 4.46%和 3.58%，10 年期美债收益率下跌，美元指数基本震荡，黄金 上涨。距离基准关税生效有 3 天，对等关税生效 6 天，在此期间各国 的的反制博弈等均会对盘面造成影响。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.05%，深成指上涨 0.09%，创业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - March, due to the marginal improvement of the central bank's monetary policy attitude, long - term bonds have significantly recovered. The central bank's monetary policy orientation currently has the greatest influence on bond pricing. Although the exchange - rate pressure has been alleviated, there are still many constraints on short - term policy - level interest rate cuts, but the probability of structural reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is relatively high [1][112]. - The most pessimistic point of the bond market has passed, and it is moving towards positive carry repair. In the short term, the bond market will experience a volatile market, while in the medium - to - long term, there is still room for interest rates to decline [2][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since 2025, the bond market has been continuously adjusting. In the first quarter, the short - end adjusted more significantly under the tight balance of funds. The yield curve showed a bear - steepening characteristic at the beginning and then a bear - flattening characteristic. As of March 27, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 40bp to 1.53%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 12bp to 1.8% [5]. - The bond market trend from December 2024 to now can be divided into four stages: from early to late December 2024, the curve was bull - steepening; from late December 2024 to mid - February 2025, the curve was bear - flattening; from mid - February to mid - March 2025, the curve moved upward as a whole; from mid - March 2025 to now, long - term bonds have recovered [10][12]. 3.2 Monetary Policy Orientation - Since mid - February, the monetary policy has shifted to a tight balance. Since mid - March, the central bank's attitude has marginally loosened but remains cautious. This is reflected in the early convening of the first - quarter monetary policy meeting, the central bank's net investment after the tax period, and the change of MLF to "American tender" [16]. - The central bank's demand for bond - market risk prevention and exchange - rate stability remains unchanged. The change in the statement of the bond market reflects the intention to reduce yield fluctuations, and the exchange - rate stability goal is still clear [17]. - The demand for reducing financing costs has increased, expanding from "enterprises and residents" to "the whole society", which may imply a decline in bond - market yields [25]. 3.3 MLF Adjustment - In terms of operation form, the advance announcement of MLF operation news and the change to "American tender" show the central bank's signal of maintaining stability. In terms of scale, the MLF was over - renewed by 630 billion yuan in March, which is the first over - renewal since August 2024. In terms of price, it is expected to relieve the bank's interest - margin pressure [30]. - The adjustment of MLF is a marginal easing signal, but it may also mean a reduced probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts [31]. 3.4 Funds - The funds have maintained a tight balance. Since early March, the funds rate has become more stable, with DR007 stabilizing at 1.8%, and the cross - quarter funds price seasonally rising to around 2.3%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has dropped below 1.9% [43]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, and a moderately loose funds environment is needed to avoid high issuance costs [48]. 3.5 Bank Liability - Side Pressure - Since the beginning of the year, the lack of bank liabilities has pushed up the funds rate. Large state - owned banks have a long - term problem of deposit shortage, but as of the end of February, the deposit gap has narrowed [59][66]. - Since mid - March, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield has declined across the board. As of March 27, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield of national and joint - stock banks has dropped to 1.9%, about 15bp lower than the mid - March high [67]. 3.6 Fundamental Aspects - The economic data shows strong supply and weak demand. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow down; in terms of consumption, the growth rate of some consumer goods is high, but the overall consumption recovery is limited; in terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment is slightly lower than that of the same period last year; in the real - estate sector, new construction starts remain at a low growth rate [77][78][79]. - Financial and inflation data are weak. The social financing data from January to February shows that the overall volume is acceptable, but the structure needs to be optimized. The government bond financing is an important support, while the real - economy financing demand is declining [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In March, the glass market showed signs of a peak season, with improved production and sales leading to a rebound in the futures market, but it failed to drive up prices in low - price regions. The market gave a premium and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the demand performance. - Demand has arrived, but its persistence needs to be monitored. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand is - 7.4%, and the overall downward trend of demand has not changed. - For the 05 contract, unless demand in the next few weeks is unexpectedly strong, leading to price increases in Hubei and rapid destocking of intermediate inventories, Hubei may face discount delivery. - In April, if demand does not strengthen unexpectedly, caution should be exercised regarding delivery [1][5][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - In March, the futures price fluctuated between 1133 and 1269. It first declined, bottomed out on March 13th, and then rebounded, but fell back again two days after a significant rebound on March 24th. - The rebound was due to improved production and sales and seasonal demand. After the Spring Festival, the worst demand period ended, and the market shifted from a high - valuation, high - inventory, and no - demand - driven pattern in February to a low - valuation, high - inventory, and demand - driven pattern in March. - Regionally, Shahe's production and sales improved at the beginning of March and remained high. Hubei's production and sales were affected by rain in the early stage and strengthened in the middle of the month. South China and East China were weaker in the first half and stronger in the second half. - The improvement in production and sales was seasonal. Although the overall demand was weak, there was some explosive power. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand was - 7.4%, and the total demand was still declining. - In the past two weeks, there was destocking because the supply was - 10.4% year - to - date, and the weekly supply was about 1.108 million tons, while the on - the - spot demand was higher than this for two consecutive weeks. - Looking ahead, demand is likely to fluctuate around the current level. If there is no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year, inventory will remain at the current level, and the industry will continue to compress profits. Otherwise, there is room for demand recovery [7][8][11]. 2. Glass Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Price: Regional Differentiation - There are significant price differences among different regions of glass. East China's prices are leading the country, while South China is in the off - season with low prices and high inventory pressure. Northeast China's prices are falling due to increased supply, and Hubei's prices are relatively stable with a discount to the futures market [12][16]. 2.2 Domestic Glass Supply - In the short term, the daily melting volume is expected to remain around 158,000 - 161,000 tons per day. The current supply is 158,000 tons per day, with a year - to - date cumulative decline of 10.4%. Assuming an annual supply of 160,000 tons per day, the annual total supply will be about 58.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.28%. - Structurally, the production of white glass is gradually resuming, reaching about 120,000 tons, close to the capacity in October last year. There are many potential ignition and cold - repair production lines, and their implementation needs further tracking [34][35]. 2.3 Domestic Glass Inventory - With the recovery of demand, inventory is starting to decline. Seasonally, April may see the highest demand and lowest inventory in the first half of the year. The current supply is - 10.4% year - to - date, and the demand is - 7.4% year - to - date. Attention should be paid to demand performance [46]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - The cost is relatively stable overall. The futures market profit has tightened from a profitable state to near the cost level [58][61]. 2.5 Downstream Real Estate - The real estate market is in a destocking cycle. The Politburo meeting emphasized promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, controlling new construction, optimizing existing inventory, and improving quality. - This year, the arrival of funds has been slow, and the resumption of work has been delayed. Continued attention is needed [72][73]. 2.6 Deep - processing - In March, the performance of the deep - processing industry was still weak, and its real situation needs attention [76]. 2.7 Completion Reference Indicators - After the seasonal decline during the Spring Festival, there has been an overall recovery, but the recovery of glass is relatively weak [79][81].