Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict alleviated market concerns, boosting the risk appetite of A - shares on Tuesday. The decline of A - share sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict indicates that the impact of external events on A - shares has ended, and A - shares will return to their own rhythm and logic. The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [4][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US economic data shows a slowdown, with the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 93, lower than the expected 100 and the previous value of 98.4; the April FIFA House Price Index monthly rate at - 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0; and the April SPCS20 City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate at 3.4%, lower than the expected 4% and the previous value of 4.07%. Fed Chairman Powell's attitude is neutral. Overnight, US stocks and bonds rose, the US dollar index, gold, and crude oil fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 3.31%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market showed a large - volume upward trend, with the broader market rising 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. The direct cause of the market rise was the easing of the Middle East situation, and the indirect cause was the release of pent - up emotions of internal funds after a long - term consolidation. The sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict, such as oil and gas and shipping, fell, while solid - state batteries, robots, automobiles, and securities led the gains. The Ministry of Commerce will organize a new - energy vehicle consumption season in thousands of counties and towns in 2025 [3][7]. 1.3 Important Information - **Middle East Situation**: Trump's views on the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement, the erasure of oil - price increases since the June 13 Israeli attack on Iran, US intelligence reports on the strike on Iran, the halt of further Israeli military strikes on Iran after the US - Israeli leaders' call, and Iran's readiness for dialogue [8]. - **Federal Reserve**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate adjustments, with some believing that a wait - and - see approach is appropriate, and some expecting a rate cut later this year [9]. - **US Senate**: The Republican leader in the US Senate plans to vote on Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" on Friday [9]. - **Central Bank**: On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year, and six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption. The central bank will also formulate a new - stage financial technology development plan [10][11]. - **Ministry of Commerce**: It will organize the 2025 New - Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns [12]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures. In the short term, focus on the activity of AI and large - finance sectors, and operating according to the 20 - day moving average has a relatively high winning rate [13]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and CSI 500 contracts, including the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [15][20][22]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume and turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts of central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US released no significant data. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Geopolitical news has led to significant asset fluctuations. A-shares fell on Thursday due to the lack of economic利好 policies from the financial meeting and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil. The subsequent trend of A-shares may either retrace to the gap on April 10 or continue to move sideways [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US released no significant data overnight. The Trump administration will decide in two weeks whether to directly attack Iran, causing market uncertainty. The US dollar index closed down, US Treasury yields at both short and long ends declined, gold rose slightly, crude oil opened lower and closed down, the US stock market was closed, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened low and closed down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.36%. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sector among the primary sectors rose, while textile and apparel, beauty care, light industry manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals led the decline. There were 716 rising stocks and 4,643 falling stocks in the entire market. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will accelerate the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [5] 1.3 Important News - The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, with increasing internal differences in the voting ratio. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Israel and Iran have been in conflict for seven days, with various parties expressing different stances. There are also news about tariffs, the release of a new index by China Securities Index, a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and a notice from the Personal Insurance Department of the Financial Regulatory Administration [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight, the US stock market was closed, and the trend of crude oil prices indicates the continued impact of Middle East geopolitics. A-shares fell on high volume yesterday, similar to the trend on May 23. In the short term, a double-top pattern seems to be forming. The subsequent trend is expected to be either a retracement to the gap on April 10 or continued sideways movement [2][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as relevant charts showing their basis and inter - contract spreads [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including their current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation metrics. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes and presents relevant valuation and trading volume charts [36][37][40] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates to reflect the market's liquidity situation [52][53][54]

股指早报 政策侧重顶层设计，A 股仍需震荡整固 2025 年 6 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日凌晨，美联储公布 6 月议息决议维持利率不变， 对今年预期依旧降息两次，但从点阵图来看，预期今年降息 2 次的人 数变得少，相比 3 月美联储官员整体边际转鹰。对经济展望来看，美 联储对今年 GDP 预估下调至 1.4%，将通胀预期上调至 3%。这也意味 美联储对美经济陷入滞涨的担忧上升。之后美联储主席鲍威尔在发言 中罕见提及关税的负面影响。综合来看，此次美联储释放的信号只想 后续美联储不会贸然行动，更多会是数据追踪来决策后续货币政策。 另外中东地区地缘政治继续动荡。从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数收 涨，美债收益率先跌后涨，10 年期美债收益率最终收微跌，黄金收 跌，原油收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指标普收跌，纳指收涨，纳 斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡收涨。从资产走势来 看，目前市场焦点依旧是中东方面。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.04%，深成指上涨 0.24%，创业板指上涨 0.23%，市场呈现指数探底回升但个股却下跌 的走势。市场对陆家嘴论坛的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [1][3][14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals that may be released at the Lujiazui Forum. The A-share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. However, the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [3][14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [3][14] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June was - 16, significantly lower than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2, indicating a cooling of the US manufacturing industry. [1][5] - Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to be prepared to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US. [1][5] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, but extreme situations such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have not occurred. Market sentiment has cooled, with the US dollar index closing down, US Treasury yields falling at both short and long ends, gold and crude oil prices dropping, and the three major US stock indices rising. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly higher. The market believes the Middle East conflict will not escalate. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8%, lower than the previous value of 6.1%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 6.4%, higher than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5.1%. Holidays and national subsidies significantly supported consumption. [2][6] - On Monday, the market opened lower and then fluctuated higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend, with weak offensive momentum after the early - morning rebound and then moving sideways. Trading volume decreased. [2][6] - In terms of sectors, media, communication, computer, and real estate led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, beauty care, non - ferrous metals, textile and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led the losses. There were 3557 rising stocks and 1638 falling stocks in the whole market. [2][6] 1.3 Important News - **Tariffs**: Trump announced the signing of a trade agreement between the US and the UK. The EU is reported to conditionally accept a 10% unified tariff from the US, though the EU says this is speculative. India and the US plan to sign a temporary agreement by July 9. The progress of Japan - US trade negotiations is unclear. Trump said the US - Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada wants the US to cancel tariffs on its exports. [7] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The US "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East. Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities. Netanyahu does not rule out assassinating Khamenei. Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement and is considering going to the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister said Iran has never left the negotiation table but is currently focused on dealing with aggression. [8][9] - **Other News**: Trump will delay sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. The cooperation between OpenAI and Microsoft is at risk. Hong Kong's Monetary Authority will process stablecoin license applications as soon as possible. China is deeply concerned about the Israel - Iran conflict. The National Medical Products Administration has drafted a consultation paper on optimizing the review and approval of innovative drug clinical trials. Dalian and Hubei will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists starting from July 1, 2025. [10][11][13] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Overnight overseas asset movements suggest easing Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the market believes the conflict will not escalate. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. [14] - Domestically, the economy maintains a weak recovery, and the market is awaiting policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum. The A - share market had a volume - shrinking rebound on Monday, with broad - based indices performing well. The capital - stock game situation in sectors remains unchanged. The Monday rebound alleviated market concerns about index adjustments, but the market currently lacks the conditions for an upward breakthrough and is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. [14] - The asset allocation and operation strategy remain unchanged, with a balanced allocation between blue - chip and technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices. Long positions can be tested when the market index is below the 20 - day moving average. [14] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. [16] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions. [17] - **Futures Basis and Spread Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis and spread trends of different futures contracts over time, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300. [19][24][28] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change rates, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as various industry sectors. [40] - **Market Style Impact on Indexes**: It analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [41][42] - **Index Valuation and Related Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan industry sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in trading value. [43][47][49] 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations and Interest Rates**: The report includes charts showing the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate levels over time. [54][55][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May, the core of black commodity trading was the confirmation of loose coking coal supply and the decline of warehouse receipts. The accelerated decline of thermal coal spot prices and the seasonal peak - to - trough decline of hot metal led to a pessimistic outlook on thermal coal and a weakening expectation of steel demand, accelerating the decline of coking coal prices and dragging down the overall black price center. In June, due to marginal improvement in macro - expectations, political turmoil in Mongolia, and domestic safety production month activities, the market focused on supply reduction, etc., leading to a rebound of coking coal to repair the basis [5]. - Overall, short - term steel demand is expected to remain stable, hot metal shows resilience, the contradictions of coking coal and coke are generally weakening, but the price ceiling pressure is still obvious. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and maintain the strategy of short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the trading logic was similar to April, centered on the confirmation of loose coking coal and the decline of warehouse receipts. The accelerated decline of thermal coal prices and the peak - to - trough decline of hot metal led to more capital inflows and price drops. In June, the logic changed due to macro - factors, and coking coal rebounded to repair the basis [5]. 2. Current High - Frequency Data of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Coking Coal Supply Turned Negative in May, Showing the Feature of "Production Based on Sales" - Since May, with the accelerated decline of coal prices and continuous discount in the futures market, high inventory at the pithead forced production cuts, high port inventory restricted customs clearance, and imports decreased without hedging. The weekly growth rates of Mongolian coal customs clearance, sea - borne coal arrival, and domestic mine production all declined, showing the feature of "production based on sales". But supply may recover when prices stabilize [19]. 2.2 Coking Coal Inventory Concentrated in the Upstream, with Low Inventory in the Downstream - Inventory accumulation was mainly in upstream mines and import ends, while inventory in downstream coking links was low. This situation led to production cuts and import reduction, and raised concerns about downstream restocking. However, these phenomena are the result of overall demand decline, and short - term supply reduction has limited price - supporting effect [27]. 2.3 After Basis Repair, Coking Coal Needs to Face Terminal Demand - With the decline of spot prices in May and the rebound of futures prices in June, the coking coal basis shrank rapidly. Now, it is necessary to answer whether demand can support the market after the marginal recovery of supply, but the current supply - demand pattern cannot provide an accurate answer [37]. 2.4 The Emergence of the Israel - Iran Conflict Brought New Entrants to Coking Coal - After the sudden intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil prices soared, and new funds entered the coking coal market based on the logic that rising crude oil prices would drive up thermal coal and then coking coal. However, historical data shows that the short - term correlation between crude oil and domestic and foreign thermal coal is not high [43]. 2.5 Coke Production and Profit Remained Stable - During the price decline, coke profit loss was small, and since May, it has been continuously repairing. Considering the low - cost coking coal in June, coke profit and production are expected to be sustainable. If downstream demand cannot keep up, coke may be the first to deteriorate [51]. 2.6 Coke Faced Greater Short - Term Inventory Pressure - Due to the continuous improvement of coking profit and the weakening of downstream hot metal demand, coke inventory pressure did not ease in May. Inventory accumulation was mainly in coking plants, and downstream steel mills had strong bargaining power. Even if there is an unexpected reduction in coking coal supply, the coke segment will still be weak [55]. 2.7 The Decline of Hot Metal Slowed Down, and There Were Still Few Maintenance Plans - Since May, hot metal production peaked as expected, but the decline slowed down at the end of May, which was related to the accelerated reduction of scrap steel. In the future, hot metal is expected to remain at a high level, so the decline of direct demand for coking coal and coke may not be smooth [62]. 2.8 Coke Turned to Discount, but Profit Improved - The coke futures market turned into a premium for wet - quenched coke. In the current situation, it may not have a positive impact and may even keep production and profit at a high level for a longer time, which is worthy of attention [66]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Coking coal supply - demand: The accelerated price decline in May led to continuous marginal reduction in supply. The supply - demand contradiction improved, and this situation continued in June, but the improvement will disappear as prices rise [74]. - Coke supply - demand: The cost of coke collapsed faster, and it will be in a low - cost pattern in June. Supply elasticity is high, while demand may face an increase in hot metal. Overall, the supply - demand of coke in June is expected to remain loose [74]. - Steel demand: Real - estate high - frequency data is weak, infrastructure funds have limited improvement and are in the off - season, and the manufacturing industry shows resilience but also has long - term risks. Short - term steel demand is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and maintain short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight market trends showed positive signals for the Sino-US negotiations. The US was more positive, while China was neutral. It's uncertain if there will be a third round of talks. The market is expected to repair in the short - term, and the strategy should gradually tilt towards technology. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in the US in May was 98.8, higher than the expected 95.9 and the previous value of 95.8, indicating a recovery in US business confidence. The Sino - US negotiation in London lasted from 5 pm yesterday to 4 am today. The US Treasury Secretary said the talks were productive, while China's Ministry of Commerce official said the communication was professional, in - depth, rational, and candid. Overnight market trends reflected positive signals for the negotiation [1][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Tuesday, the broader market opened higher but oscillated and declined by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.17%. The sharp decline might be due to concerns about the negotiation and quantitative selling triggered by market rumors. Sectors such as beauty care, banking, pharmaceutical biology, and transportation led the gains, while military industry, computer, electronics, and communication led the losses. There were 1260 rising stocks and 4034 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to stop Trump from sending troops. The White House refuted the rumor that Treasury Secretary Bessent would be the next Fed Chairman. Xi Jinping had a phone call with South Korean President Lee Jae - myung. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will cancel the household registration restriction for flexible employees to participate in insurance in the employment place and expand the pilot of occupational injury insurance for new - form employment. The "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Live - streaming E - commerce" is soliciting public opinions. The head of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to private enterprises' opinions on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8][9] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight market trends were positive for the Sino - US negotiation. The market is expected to repair in the short - term. The strategy should gradually tilt towards technology under the technology and consumption dumbbell strategy. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report provided detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, as well as their corresponding basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates [12][13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report presented data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, monthly, daily, and weekly changes of various indexes and sectors. It also analyzed the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and provided information on the valuation of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [36][38][39] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report showed data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates [51][52][53]

股指早报 中美贸易会谈中，A 股收 3399 2025 年 6 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月批发销售月率录得 0.1%，低于预期 0.3%和前 值 0.8%；美 5 月纽约联储一年通胀预期录得 3.2%，低于前值 3.63%， 数据指向美经济的边际回落。另外美国与中国贸易会谈昨日在伦敦举 行第一轮谈判在今日凌晨 3 点结束，第二轮将在今日 10 点开始。市 场密切关注会谈信息，从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数震荡走低，美 债收益率短端和长端均上涨，黄金收涨，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指 收平，纳指和标普收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇 率升值。从走势来看，市场处于谨慎乐观。此次谈判关注重点在于是 否会降低关税，以及 90 天关税暂停期是否会延长等。 国内基本面上看，周一统计局公布 5 月通胀数据，5 月 CPI 同比 录得-0.1%，与前值一致，5 月 PPI 同比录得-3.3%，前值-2.7%。农 产品和猪肉价格对 CPI 期到拖累，PPI 则更多受能源价格的拖累。通 胀数据指向目前国内总需求依旧偏弱，经济修复依旧需要政策支持。 盘面上看，周一大盘高开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to US tariffs and the Fed's stance, the probability of a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is high, which will trigger asset fluctuations. The domestic A-share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The market may experience short - term fluctuations, and the real market trend will be observed after the festival [2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.2%, higher than the expected and previous value of - 0.3%. The monthly rate of the existing home sales contract index in April was - 6.3%, lower than the expected - 1% and the previous value of 5.5%, indicating an economic slowdown in Q1 and a cooling real - estate market. Fed's Goolsbee said that if tariffs are avoided, the Fed may return to a rate - cut scenario. The probability of a rate cut in September is 52.4%. US tariffs are volatile, causing overnight market fluctuations. The US dollar index fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold rose, US stocks rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate first depreciated and then appreciated. A divergence between the US dollar index and US Treasury yields is expected, and capital market volatility will increase [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market rebounded with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.37%. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume increased. Brokerage and technology sectors were active. Computer, medicine, electronics, and military industries led the gains, while beauty care, banking, food and beverage, and petrochemical sectors declined. There were 4468 rising stocks and 831 falling stocks [2][5] 1.3 Important Information - The US Court of Appeals allowed Trump's tariff policy to continue temporarily. Trump's officials were confident of victory in the lawsuit and believed alternative ways to impose tariffs could be found. Three agreements are expected in the next few weeks. The US Treasury Secretary said trade partners' attitudes remained unchanged in the past 48 hours. Trump met Powell and asked for a rate cut, but Powell insisted on monetary policy independence. There is no plan for Putin to talk with Trump. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to US semiconductor export controls and urged the US to cancel tariffs. The US decided to revoke Chinese student visas, and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized it. The Hongdao operating system was launched. Yushu's name change sparked listing speculation, and the company said it was a routine change [6][7] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Thursday's A - share and overseas market movements reflected news. Given US tariffs and the Fed's attitude, a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is likely, causing asset fluctuations. The domestic A - share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The Thursday's rebound was unexpected, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term. The real market trend will be observed after the festival [8] 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [10] Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are provided, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [11] 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading value, and other indicators of major domestic stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. It also includes data on different sectors such as upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and financial sectors [33] Impact of Market Styles on Index Fluctuations - Analyzes the impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [34][36] Index Valuation - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][40] Other Market Indicators - Includes data on the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, north - bound funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume [42][50] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels is provided, presented in graphical form [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes indicate that the Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined. The domestic market is in a short - term policy vacuum period, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no significant changes are expected. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an opportunity for the market to increase with increased trading volume after the festival. Recently, the market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen. Technically, there is still a distance to fill the gap around 3316, and short - term funds are more likely to choose to fill the gap and buy at the bottom. Additionally, attention should be paid to the liquidity of small - cap stocks to prevent extreme market conditions [2][12] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The Fed released FOMC meeting minutes, stating that due to rising risks in inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, the Fed strongly implied that it would not cut interest rates soon and clearly predicted stagflation. Some officials also hinted at the financial risk of rising long - term US bond yields. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields for 2 - year and 10 - year terms increased, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31%. The market showed a volatile downward trend, similar to Tuesday, with limited index movements, accelerated sector rotation, and many stocks experiencing a shrinking - volume decline. Some popular stocks appeared on the decline list. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, environmental protection, coal, transportation, and communication led the gains, while chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1750 rising stocks and 3477 falling stocks in the whole market. China announced visa - free policies for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The EU trade chief will talk with the US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative on Thursday, with topics including tariff policies and cooperation in aviation, semiconductors, and steel. Three major German car companies are in consultations with the US Department of Commerce on tariff issues, aiming for an agreement in early July. Trump responded angrily to the "TACO" deal. The Fed meeting minutes showed rising risks of unemployment and inflation, and the "Fed whisperer" said that the stagflation prediction might be the keynote of the Fed's June economic forecast. Chinese officials emphasized China's commitment to high - level opening - up and welcomed US financial institutions to participate in the Chinese capital market. The Chinese government also focused on building a good platform economy ecosystem and strengthening the publicity of rare - earth export control policies. DeepSeek open - sourced a new version, and China implemented visa - free policies for four Middle - Eastern countries [6][7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy with reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. The domestic market is in a policy vacuum, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no major changes are expected. After the festival, attention should be paid to potential market increases. The market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen, and there is a chance for short - term funds to fill the gap around 3316. Attention should also be paid to small - cap liquidity [12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and changes in trading volume and open interest [14][15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various stock indexes and sectors in the spot market, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation levels. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes [33][34][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rates, which are related to market liquidity [53]