1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Supported by biodiesel policies, oils and fats are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. In the short term, the market will return to a volatile trend. For oils and fats to rise again, new drivers are needed, specifically problems on the supply side; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weak. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [92]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of three major oils have risen alternately. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has fluctuated, affected by various factors such as USDA's yield and area adjustments, tariff policies, crude oil prices, and biodiesel policies [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - **USDA's Adjustment of U.S. Soybean Planting Area**: USDA unexpectedly and significantly reduced the estimated U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean balance sheet shows that the 2025 - 08 data has decreased compared to previous periods, and there is a possibility of further tightening of the balance sheet and lower inventories [9]. - **Pro Farmer Field Inspection Results**: The number of soybean pods in major producing states in 2025 shows a mixed trend compared to 2024, with some states having an increase and others a decrease. The estimated yield per acre of 53.6 bushels provides room for a downward adjustment [10]. - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: As of the week ending August 24, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought [20]. - **SRE Announcement**: On August 22, EPA announced the handling of 175 small refinery exemption (SRE) applications from 38 small refineries in the 2016 - 2024 compliance years. It is expected not to affect the demand for biofuels [22]. - **South American Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.2573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. Argentina adjusted its soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal export tariffs [31][32]. - **Domestic Situation in China**: China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons. The soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, and soybean oil was expected to continue to accumulate inventory. In late August, China exported soybean oil again, with an expected monthly average export volume of 3 - 50,000 tons from September to December [37][40]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Malaysian Inventory and Production**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was slightly lower than expected, exports met expectations, and inventory was lower than expected. From August 1 - 25, 2025, production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 10.9%. Malaysia plans to replant palm trees [50]. - **Indonesian Production and Policy**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.96% month - on - month, contrary to rumors. The government's crackdown on illegal palm plantations may affect future production. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 policy in 2026, but it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term [53][58]. - **Indian Imports**: India imported palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in July. It is rumored that India purchased palm oil from Latin America and imported rapeseed oil from the UAE. The Indian government may reduce the import tariff on rapeseed oil [66]. - **Chinese Imports and Inventory**: China's palm oil imports in July were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.57%. With the decline in imports, inventory is expected to peak and decline [76]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Canadian Rapeseed Production**: Canada's estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year, as the increase in yield per unit offsets the decline in area [86]. - **Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling**: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations into Canadian rapeseed, setting a 75.8% deposit ratio. This will increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed and tighten domestic rapeseed supply. China will purchase Australian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed imports will continue to tighten before the end of this year, accelerating the pace of rapeseed oil inventory reduction [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's actions regarding the Fed have short - and long - term impacts on the capital market. If he succeeds, it may lead to a triple - kill situation in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. The market is currently observing the event's development [1][2][4] - In the domestic A - share market, the Tuesday market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The large - financial weights dragged down the market, and although hot topics were active, they did not form a sector effect. The market is in a normal volatile and momentum - building stage. The capital bull market trend is hard to end easily. In the short term, if the market cannot break through 3900 points and as September 3 approaches, there may be fluctuations, with an estimated range of 3700 - 3750. Currently, it is advisable to avoid micro - cap stocks and focus on core blue - chip dividends that may have supplementary gains [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - US consumer confidence index in August was 97.4, higher than the expected 96.2 but lower than the previous value of 98.7. The annual rate of the unadjusted housing price index of 20 major US cities in June was 2.1%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.79%, indicating a marginal slowdown in US consumption and real estate [1][4] - Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the government's consideration of influencing local Fed plans have different impacts on the overnight market. In the long term, it affects the Fed's independence; in the short term, it raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, a steeper US bond yield curve, a rise in gold prices, a collective rise in the three major US stock indexes, an increase in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, and an appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, falling 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.76%. The market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The large - financial weights dragged down the market, and hot topics were active but did not form a sector effect. The consumer electronics sector was unevenly distributed, and the market was more of independent trends of strong individual stocks [2][5] - In terms of sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, beauty care, basic chemicals, and media led the gains, while medicine and biology, non - bank finance, steel, and military industries led the losses. There were 2802 rising stocks and 2469 falling stocks in the whole market. The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", which is beneficial to the growth of the technology sector [2][5] 3.1.3 Important Information - Fed - related: Trump's government is considering influencing local Fed plans and reviewing the selection method of local Fed presidents. Cook's lawyer has sought a judicial ruling on the dismissal, and both the Fed and Trump said they will follow the court's decision. Trump said he has a replacement in mind and may transfer Milan to another long - term position at the Fed. Former White House economic advisor Brainard said Trump's action is an unprecedented attack on the Fed, which may lead to rising inflation and long - term interest rates, and Barkin predicted a mild adjustment of interest rates [6] - Tariff - war - related: Trump said furniture tariffs will be introduced soon and will be very high, and will implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes. The US has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from 19% tariffs. German media reported that Trump called Modi at least four times recently but was rejected each time [7][8][9] - Other: The US Secretary of Commerce is studying potential equity investment opportunities in the defense and other industries. Trump said he may visit China this year or as soon as possible, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to questions about the meeting between Chinese and US officials. Trump plans to impose about 200% tariffs on Chinese rare - earth magnets, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", and the oil price dropped for the seventh time this year, with about 7 yuan less to fill a tank [9][10][11] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - Overseas, the game between Trump and the Fed has short - and long - term impacts on the capital market, and the market is observing. If Trump succeeds, it may lead to a triple - kill situation in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. In the domestic A - share market, the Tuesday market is in a normal volatile and momentum - building stage. The capital bull market trend is hard to end easily. In the short term, if the market cannot break through 3900 points and as September 3 approaches, there may be fluctuations, with an estimated range of 3700 - 3750. Currently, it is advisable to avoid micro - cap stocks and focus on core blue - chip dividends that may have supplementary gains [12] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [14][15] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volume, and other data of various indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of different sectors [36] - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, and provides valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][38][39] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance, as well as different - term Shibor interest rates [51][52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-shares showed an independent market trend, with Monday's sharp rise driven more by sentiment. The view of a long-term slow bull market remains unchanged. In the short term, if the market fails to break through 3900 points, it may adjust, with an expected adjustment range of 3700 - 3750. It is advisable to avoid micro-cap stocks in late August, and focus on core blue-chip dividends such as dual innovation leaders and securities firms [2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The annualized total of new home sales in the US in July was 652,000 units, higher than the expected 630,000 but lower than the previous value of 656,000, indicating the resilience of the US real estate market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have declined, with the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September dropping from 92% after Powell's speech to 82%. The decline in rate cut expectations affected the overnight capital market, with the US dollar index rising and other assets falling. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [1][5]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Monday, the broader market rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3%, with market trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The rise of Cambricon drove the chip sector, and technology was the main market theme. Communication, non-ferrous metals, real estate, and steel led the gains, while beauty care, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and light manufacturing led the losses. There were 3349 rising stocks and 1896 falling stocks in the entire market. Shanghai's new real estate policies significantly boosted the sentiment of the real estate sector and brought structural opportunities [2][6]. 1.3 Important News - Trump plans to cut drug prices by 1400% - 1500% and impose tariffs on drugs; he hopes to meet with Kim Jong-un this year; Intel believes that government shareholding poses a risk to its business, and the government shareholding may increase to 15%, while Trump will continue to make similar deals. The Fed's Logan said there is still room to reduce bank system reserves, and the standing repo facility may be reopened in September. The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand, and the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market. Shanghai optimized real estate policies and mortgage rate pricing mechanisms [7][9][10]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed's rate cut expectations affect the overnight capital market, while A - shares have an independent trend. Currently, A - shares are driven by policies and liquidity. In the short term, if the market fails to break through 3900 points, it may adjust, with an expected adjustment range of 3700 - 3750. Avoid micro - cap stocks in late August and focus on core blue - chip dividends [11]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [13][14]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Information on the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and trading volumes of major indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index, as well as various sectors, is provided. The impact of market styles on major indices and the valuation of important indices and Shenwan sectors are also analyzed [32][33][34]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Data on the central bank's open market operations and SHIBOR interest rates are presented to reflect market liquidity [46][47][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: Last week, US economic data rebounded, with both the August services PMI and manufacturing PMI exceeding expectations, and the manufacturing PMI rising above the boom - bust line. Powell signaled a neutral - dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, suggesting a possible policy adjustment and hinting at a rate cut. However, the long - term inflation target remains at 2%. The market's expectation of a rate cut this year has increased, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, a fall in US Treasury yields, a rise in gold prices, and an increase in the Dow and S&P, while the Nasdaq slightly declined. Attention should be paid to the July PCE data and economic data to be released this week, as an economic recovery may increase the expectation of no rate cut in September [1]. - Domestic: Despite the July economic data (industrial added value, retail sales, and fixed - asset investment) falling short of expectations, the A - share market rebounded last week, reaching a new high since September 24, 2024. The market's expectation of increased economic policies supported the A - share market. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the A - share market has the basis for a slow - bull market. In the short term, if the market can break through the 3900 - point pressure level, it may continue to rise to 4000 points; otherwise, there may be short - term changes. The strategy is to focus on technology growth stocks and maintain long positions in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents various charts showing the basis of different contracts (such as CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500) and their inter - period spreads, including the basis of each contract and the spreads between the current month and the next month, the current month and the current quarter, and the next month and the current quarter [5][6][12]. 3.2 Spot Market Tracking - Charts display important index valuations (including Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc.), Shenwan valuations, market weekly average trading volume, market weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchase amounts and their proportions in A - share trading volume [17][19][21]. 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - Charts show central bank open - market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and Shibor interest rate levels [28][29][30]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Chuangyuan Research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, professional experiences, and relevant qualifications in different research groups such as macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural and sideline products [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significantly higher-than-expected US PPI in July dampened the market's expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in risk assets that were previously priced too optimistically for rate cuts. The domestic A-share market experienced a single-day correction after reaching a new high without a clear market leader. The correction is normal, given the weak fundamentals and capital-driven nature of the A-share market, and there is no need for excessive concern. The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting a short-term focus on individual stocks rather than the index, and emphasizes rotation opportunities within the technology growth sector. In terms of stock indices, it recommends going long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 [2][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The monthly rate was 0.9%, higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0. This indicates the impact of tariffs on the US production side. The unexpectedly high PPI has dampened the expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has slightly decreased to 92.1%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point cut has dropped from 64.4% to 55.2%. Overnight, US stocks and bonds declined, the US dollar index rose, and gold fell as the market adjusted its overly optimistic pricing of future Fed rate cuts. The Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be crucial to watch for the Fed's stance on future monetary policy [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened higher but oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The market showed an adjustment trend. In the morning, while the index rebounded, individual stocks declined. The rally of core blue-chip stocks suppressed the risk appetite of other stocks, increasing capital divergence. With no clear market leader and approaching the mid-to-late performance reporting period, the market is concerned about whether individual stocks can support the index's gains. Among the primary sectors, only the non-bank financial sector rose, while military, communication, steel, and textile and apparel sectors led the decline. There were 734 rising stocks and 4,644 falling stocks in the entire market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US will retain gold as a store of value and is unlikely to reevaluate its gold reserves. Bitcoin reserves are valued at approximately $15 - 20 billion, and the US will stop selling its Bitcoin holdings. Yellen also clarified that she did not call for a 150-basis-point rate cut by the Fed but noted that models suggest a lower neutral interest rate [6]. - Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. Mary Daly said that a large rate cut next month seems inappropriate, and Rafael Bostic stated that a 50-basis-point cut does not align with the current economic situation or data [6]. - US President Donald Trump said that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin goes well, he will call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; otherwise, he will not call anyone. The meeting with Putin lays the foundation for a second meeting, and if issues cannot be resolved, sanctions will be imposed. Market sources suggest that Western leaders are considering the possibility of hosting a tripartite summit among Russia, the US, and Ukraine in a European city [6]. - Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the US is seeking an agreement acceptable to all parties, and it is possible to reach a new arms control agreement with the US. The Kremlin stated that there are no plans to sign a document on the results of the Russia-US summit [7]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of six months [8]. - The Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Aliens have been amended to add a new K visa to the ordinary visa category, which will be issued to foreign young scientific and technological talents entering China [8]. - CK Hutchison Holdings stated that it does not expect to complete the port transaction this year and will invite mainland investors to participate in the much-anticipated port transaction [8]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a joint statement on the market volatility related to stablecoins. The HKMA reiterated that it will adopt a prudent approach when considering applications for stablecoin issuer licenses and set high thresholds [8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The significantly higher-than-expected US PPI in July dampened the market's expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in risk assets that were previously priced too optimistically for rate cuts. The domestic A-share market experienced a single-day correction after reaching a new high without a clear market leader. The correction is normal, given the weak fundamentals and capital-driven nature of the A-share market, and there is no need for excessive concern. The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting a short-term focus on individual stocks rather than the index, and emphasizes rotation opportunities within the technology growth sector. In terms of stock indices, it recommends going long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 [9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, premium/discount rates, annualized premium/discount rates, contract delivery dates, and remaining times for various futures contracts, including those for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, and changes in net positions, short positions, and long positions for each futures contract are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and other aggregated data are also provided [12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual percentage changes, trading volumes, trading values, and other indicators for major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as various industry sectors [35]. - **Influence of Market Styles on Index Fluctuations**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the fluctuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions of each style [36][37]. - **Valuation of Important Indices and Sectors**: Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important stock indices and Shenwan industry sectors [39][43]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Includes charts showing the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, changes in index trading value, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases and their proportion in A - share trading value [45][47][48]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank's Open Market Operations**: The report provides a chart showing the central bank's open market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection [52][53]. - **Shibor Interest Rate Levels**: A chart showing the levels of Shibor interest rates for different tenors is presented [52][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Trump may soon announce the next Fed Chair. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be beneficial for A-shares. However, the external market environment is highly uncertain due to Trump's threats regarding tariffs and energy sanctions. A-shares have shown strong index performance in the past two days but lack trading volume. In the short term, it is necessary to monitor whether the trading volume will recover and the activity of the technology sector to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [1][2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US service industry data indicates resilience, with the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (below the expected 51.5 but above the previous value of 50.8) and the July S&P Global services PMI at 55.7 (above both the expected and previous values of 55.2). - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair candidates have been narrowed down to four, and an announcement may be made soon. The US will announce tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. Trump also threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. These factors have dampened market risk appetite, leading to a weaker US dollar index, a decline in short-term US Treasury yields and an increase in long-term yields, a rise in gold prices, a collective decline in US stock indices, a decline in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, and a slight depreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the potential for Fed rate cuts is seen as a positive for A-shares [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market continued its rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.39%. The strength of the Shanghai Composite Index was mainly due to the contribution of the large financial sector. Although more stocks rose than fell, the market sentiment was slightly weaker than on Monday. All primary sectors rose, with banks, steel, media, communications, and non-bank finance leading the gains, while pharmaceutical biology, computer, and building materials had the smallest increases. A total of 3,901 stocks rose, and 1,325 stocks fell. The central bank and six other departments jointly issued a document to promote financial support for new industrialization, which is essentially a financial supply-side reform aimed at breaking through bottlenecks through precise capital allocation [2][5]. 1.3 Important Information - **Tariffs**: Trump will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips in the next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US trade deficit in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [6]. - **Political News**: Trump believes that Vance is the most likely candidate for the next president, and Secretary of State Rubio would be a helpful ally. Trump may soon announce a new Fed Chair, with four candidates, and Besent hopes to remain in the Treasury. Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. The State Council General Office issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre-school education, starting from the fall semester of 2025, waiving tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is strengthening constraints on third parties involved in capital market fraud. The central bank and six other departments are guiding banks to provide medium- and long-term financing for key manufacturing industrial chains such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines. The National Health Commission and other departments jointly issued an implementation plan for a healthy environment promotion action [6][7][8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Monitor the recovery of trading volume and the activity of the technology sector in the short term to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also presents charts showing the basis, inter - contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest trends of these futures contracts [12][13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation quantiles of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others. It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. Additionally, it provides valuation and trading volume data for various industries [37][38][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts showing central bank open - market operations (in billion yuan) and the Shibor interest rate levels [50].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economic structural resilience is reflected in the manufacturing PMI falling below the boom-bust line while the service sector maintains high expansion. Market bets on the Fed's interest rate cut have decreased, and the EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US. Currently, the impact of the overseas market on A - shares is limited [1][5]. - Domestically, on Thursday, the market showed a rebound in both indices and individual stocks. The focus is on stabilizing the economy and anti - involution policies, with high expectations for the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The market is dominated by bulls, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to brokerage and technology growth sectors [2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the service sector was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in September has dropped to 58.4%. The EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. Overnight, the US dollar rose slightly, the US bond yield fell, gold dropped, and the three major US stock indices showed mixed trends [1][5]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.65%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.5%. Beauty care, non - ferrous metals, steel, and other sectors led the gains, while banks, communications, and public utilities declined. Jiangte Motor and Zhongkuang Resources have carried out maintenance and technological transformation, and regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai are standardizing lithium - related resource production. Anti - involution will be a key driver for the medium - to long - term profit restoration of the new energy industry [2][6]. 1.3 Important News - Tariffs: The EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US; India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US and has signed a free - trade agreement with the UK [7]. - "Firing Powell" incident: Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell [7][8]. - Thailand - Cambodia conflict: There was a cross - fire in the disputed border area, and Thailand dispatched 4 F - 16 fighter jets [8]. - The European Central Bank maintained key interest rates, and traders reduced bets on the ECB's interest rate cut [8]. - Other news: President Xi Jinping met with European leaders; the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized anti - involution; the central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan MLF operation; the market supervision department will carry out a quality safety rectification of power banks [9][10]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The game between Trump and the Fed continues, and market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have cooled. Domestically, the focus is on stabilizing the economy and anti - involution policies. The market is dominated by bulls, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to brokerage and technology growth sectors [11]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, as well as data on trading volume, turnover, open interest, and the positions of the top 20 members [13][14]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and trading volume of various indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index are presented. Different sectors show different performance and valuation levels [36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which can be used to track market liquidity [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the dovish stance of the next potential Fed Chair and strong US economic data boosted US stocks. In China, GDP recovery exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, but industrial enterprise profits are currently low, leading the market to anticipate pro - growth policies. Under these circumstances, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can also be sustained. Key areas to focus on are large - financials and technology growth sectors, and for stock index futures, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 are recommended. The market index has stabilized above 3500 after several days of consolidation, showing signs of a rebound [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Overseas Overnight**: US economic data in June and July showed resilience. The former hawkish Fed governor Wash shifted to the rate - cut camp. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, gold fell, crude oil rose, US stocks closed higher, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly [2][5]. - **Domestic Market Review**: On Thursday, the market showed a volatile rebound. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%. Due to the drag of heavy - weight sectors like banks, the market had a pattern where Shenzhen was stronger than Shanghai. Funds began to favor technology - growth stocks and brokerage stocks, which was beneficial for market sentiment, but there was no clear market leader. Military, communication, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, environmental protection, and public utilities sectors led the losses. There were 3535 rising stocks and 1609 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6]. - **Important News**: There were various news items including tariff policies, Fed officials' remarks on interest rates, Trump's call for Fed rate cuts, responses from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance's adjustment of luxury car consumption tax, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's statement on the banking system [7][12]. - **Today's Strategy**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can be sustained. Focus on large - financials, technology growth, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [13]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided, along with information on their contract delivery dates and remaining times [15]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volumes, trading volume changes, open interests, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts were presented, including the overall situation and that of each specific contract [16]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and other indicators of various stock market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others was provided, as well as data on different sectors [38]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on major stock indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) was analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [39][40]. - **Valuation**: Valuation data and historical quantile information of major stock indices and Shenwan sectors were presented [42][45]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases was provided [47][51]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates was presented, but specific data was mainly in graphical form [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overseas market is affected by the hawkish signals from key figures of the Federal Reserve, and the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to fluctuations. The repeated Trump tariffs also add difficulties to subsequent negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI turned positive in June 2025, while the negative value of PPI expanded, squeezing industrial enterprise profits. The continuous stable - growth policies and loose monetary policies cause the A - share market to fluctuate in sector rotation. The market still needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. Different Federal Reserve officials have different views on monetary policy. Some suggest a higher probability of interest rate hikes, while others support two interest rate cuts this year. The market is currently pricing in interest rate cuts, but there may be short - term fluctuations. In terms of tariffs, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation has changed from 11% to 20%, which may have a negative impact on the US's negotiations with other countries. Overnight, the US dollar index rose slightly, the short - end US Treasury yield rebounded, gold closed up, crude oil fell, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock polarization. The banking sector contributed significantly to the index, and the brokerage and real estate sectors continued to support the market in the afternoon. Only some sectors such as photovoltaic and rare earths showed performance, and there was no sustainability in sector trends. Among the primary sectors, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - bank finance led the gains, while automobile, media, military, and electronics led the losses. There were 2,945 rising stocks and 2,278 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - **Federal Reserve Officials' Statements**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Others consider implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and believe there will be two cuts this year [6]. - **Regulatory Proposals**: The Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks [8]. - **Global Trade Progress**: The US Secretary of Commerce will visit Japan next week. The EU - US tariff negotiation is accelerating, with the automobile industry being the EU's "red line". Brazil may request the cancellation of tariffs, and Chile seeks exemption from US copper tariffs. Vietnam disagreed with the tariff rate announced by Trump [8]. - **China - related News**: China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation is fully completed and will sign the protocol within this year. The Ministry of Finance excludes EU enterprises from participating in medical device government procurement projects worth over 45 million RMB. The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals exports and is in close communication with the US on economic and trade issues [8][9]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to the possible fluctuations caused by the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts due to the hawkish signals from key Federal Reserve figures. The repeated Trump tariffs make subsequent negotiations more difficult. In the domestic market, due to the situation of CPI and PPI and the continuous policies, the A - share market fluctuates in sector rotation. The market needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change ratios, basis, and other information of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [12]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change ratios, trading amounts, and other information of various indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index. It also provides the performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, large - scale finance, and public utility sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The influence of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, as well as information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading amount changes, risk - return ratio, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount [41][43][45]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the SHIBOR interest rate level [51][52][53].