Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In March, the glass market showed signs of a peak season, with improved production and sales leading to a rebound in the futures market, but it failed to drive up prices in low - price regions. The market gave a premium and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the demand performance. - Demand has arrived, but its persistence needs to be monitored. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand is - 7.4%, and the overall downward trend of demand has not changed. - For the 05 contract, unless demand in the next few weeks is unexpectedly strong, leading to price increases in Hubei and rapid destocking of intermediate inventories, Hubei may face discount delivery. - In April, if demand does not strengthen unexpectedly, caution should be exercised regarding delivery [1][5][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - In March, the futures price fluctuated between 1133 and 1269. It first declined, bottomed out on March 13th, and then rebounded, but fell back again two days after a significant rebound on March 24th. - The rebound was due to improved production and sales and seasonal demand. After the Spring Festival, the worst demand period ended, and the market shifted from a high - valuation, high - inventory, and no - demand - driven pattern in February to a low - valuation, high - inventory, and demand - driven pattern in March. - Regionally, Shahe's production and sales improved at the beginning of March and remained high. Hubei's production and sales were affected by rain in the early stage and strengthened in the middle of the month. South China and East China were weaker in the first half and stronger in the second half. - The improvement in production and sales was seasonal. Although the overall demand was weak, there was some explosive power. The cumulative year - to - date on - the - spot demand was - 7.4%, and the total demand was still declining. - In the past two weeks, there was destocking because the supply was - 10.4% year - to - date, and the weekly supply was about 1.108 million tons, while the on - the - spot demand was higher than this for two consecutive weeks. - Looking ahead, demand is likely to fluctuate around the current level. If there is no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year, inventory will remain at the current level, and the industry will continue to compress profits. Otherwise, there is room for demand recovery [7][8][11]. 2. Glass Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Price: Regional Differentiation - There are significant price differences among different regions of glass. East China's prices are leading the country, while South China is in the off - season with low prices and high inventory pressure. Northeast China's prices are falling due to increased supply, and Hubei's prices are relatively stable with a discount to the futures market [12][16]. 2.2 Domestic Glass Supply - In the short term, the daily melting volume is expected to remain around 158,000 - 161,000 tons per day. The current supply is 158,000 tons per day, with a year - to - date cumulative decline of 10.4%. Assuming an annual supply of 160,000 tons per day, the annual total supply will be about 58.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.28%. - Structurally, the production of white glass is gradually resuming, reaching about 120,000 tons, close to the capacity in October last year. There are many potential ignition and cold - repair production lines, and their implementation needs further tracking [34][35]. 2.3 Domestic Glass Inventory - With the recovery of demand, inventory is starting to decline. Seasonally, April may see the highest demand and lowest inventory in the first half of the year. The current supply is - 10.4% year - to - date, and the demand is - 7.4% year - to - date. Attention should be paid to demand performance [46]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - The cost is relatively stable overall. The futures market profit has tightened from a profitable state to near the cost level [58][61]. 2.5 Downstream Real Estate - The real estate market is in a destocking cycle. The Politburo meeting emphasized promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, controlling new construction, optimizing existing inventory, and improving quality. - This year, the arrival of funds has been slow, and the resumption of work has been delayed. Continued attention is needed [72][73]. 2.6 Deep - processing - In March, the performance of the deep - processing industry was still weak, and its real situation needs attention [76]. 2.7 Completion Reference Indicators - After the seasonal decline during the Spring Festival, there has been an overall recovery, but the recovery of glass is relatively weak [79][81].

Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In late July, China experienced a wave of interest rate cuts, with the MLF unexpectedly lowered by 20 basis points (bp) on July 25[1] - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds fell to historical lows of approximately 2.10% and 2.30%, respectively, marking the lowest levels since 2003 and 2005[1] - As of August 7, the 10-year government bond yield was around 2.13%, while the 30-year bond yield was approximately 2.30%[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The GDP growth rate declined in Q2, and inflation remained low, indicating significant pressure to stabilize growth[1] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to peak, but the impact may be limited compared to last year's concentrated refinancing bonds[1] - The overall funding environment is expected to remain loose, with potential for further interest rate cuts[1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The central bank's management of long-term bonds has not relaxed, with a focus on guiding major banks to sell bonds to stabilize yields[1] - The central bank indicated that the downward adjustment of policy rates does not imply an opening of space for long-term bond yields to decline further[1] - The central bank aims to maintain a normal upward-sloping yield curve and is prepared to intervene if necessary[1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of volatility, with short-term fluctuations expected to amplify due to the ongoing adjustments in long-term bond yields[1] - There is a cautionary note regarding potential profit-taking by institutions as yields approach the central bank's acceptable levels of 2.1% for 10-year bonds and 2.3% for 30-year bonds[1] - The overall sentiment suggests a long-term bullish outlook on bonds, with opportunities to buy on potential yield corrections[1]

Group 1: Economic Trends - From 1993 to 1996, China experienced an investment boom with fixed asset investment growth rates of 50% and 69%[9] - In 1998, GDP growth fell to 7.8%, prompting a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[71] - Between 1998 and 2002, the cumulative issuance of long-term construction bonds reached 660 billion yuan, accounting for 1.2%-1.5% of GDP[73] Group 2: Inflation and Deflation - CPI recorded significant inflation rates of 14.7%, 24.1%, and 17.1% from 1993 to 1995, with a peak near 30% in October 1994[15] - The period from 1998 to 2002 saw deflation, with CPI values of -0.8%, -1.4%, and 0.4%[41] - Since April 2023, inflation levels have remained near zero, similar to the deflationary period of 1998-2002[20] Group 3: Policy Responses - Monetary policy was loosened with a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 700 basis points and a cumulative interest rate cut of 675 basis points from 1998 to 2002[71] - Fiscal policy focused on infrastructure investment through the issuance of long-term bonds, aimed at stabilizing economic growth[73] - The government faced challenges in effectively transmitting monetary policy to the real economy, leading to limited credit expansion despite a loose monetary stance[92] Group 4: External Factors - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a 20.5 percentage point decline in China's export growth rate in 1998, resulting in a mere 0.5% growth[65] - The entry into the WTO in 2001 helped boost external demand, contributing to economic recovery post-deflation[46] - The external environment remains critical in shaping domestic economic conditions, particularly in times of low inflation and weak internal demand[99]

美非农超预期，A 股量化交易监管新进度 2024 年 6 月 10 日 股指周报 股指周报（2024.6.3-2024.6.10） 报告要点： 海外方面，近期公布的美国经济数据和小非农数据均支持美联储 降息预期回升，但周五公布的美国 5 月非农数据整体超预期，使得近 期边际升温的降息预期有所回落。另外上周 G7 中两大经济体，加拿 大央行和欧央行开始宣布降息，使得海外开始进入降息周期。整体来 看上周美联储降息预期处于首先回升，之后回落的状况，但整周因受 公布的美国 PMI、小非农和欧央行降息影响，整体处于美债收益率回 落，美股上涨的状态。本周三美国会公布 CPI 数据，数据会对上周五 美超预期的非农数据进行验证，从而影响到周四的美联储利率决议， 而在周四利率决议中，美联储会给市场传递出更为明确的后续利率路 径，而这也会对近期市场预期的左右摇摆来调整。 国内方面，5 月出口超预期，主因外需走强对我国出口起到拉动， 另外拜登宣布加征关税引发的抢出口对出口也存在影响，从 5 月 PMI 中新订单指数大幅回落中也需要注意后续出口持续走强存在隐忧。本 周将公布 5 月金融数据，虽然房地产销售依旧疲弱，但政府专项债提 速 ...