1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight market trends showed positive signals for the Sino-US negotiations. The US was more positive, while China was neutral. It's uncertain if there will be a third round of talks. The market is expected to repair in the short - term, and the strategy should gradually tilt towards technology. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in the US in May was 98.8, higher than the expected 95.9 and the previous value of 95.8, indicating a recovery in US business confidence. The Sino - US negotiation in London lasted from 5 pm yesterday to 4 am today. The US Treasury Secretary said the talks were productive, while China's Ministry of Commerce official said the communication was professional, in - depth, rational, and candid. Overnight market trends reflected positive signals for the negotiation [1][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Tuesday, the broader market opened higher but oscillated and declined by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.17%. The sharp decline might be due to concerns about the negotiation and quantitative selling triggered by market rumors. Sectors such as beauty care, banking, pharmaceutical biology, and transportation led the gains, while military industry, computer, electronics, and communication led the losses. There were 1260 rising stocks and 4034 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to stop Trump from sending troops. The White House refuted the rumor that Treasury Secretary Bessent would be the next Fed Chairman. Xi Jinping had a phone call with South Korean President Lee Jae - myung. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will cancel the household registration restriction for flexible employees to participate in insurance in the employment place and expand the pilot of occupational injury insurance for new - form employment. The "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Live - streaming E - commerce" is soliciting public opinions. The head of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to private enterprises' opinions on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8][9] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight market trends were positive for the Sino - US negotiation. The market is expected to repair in the short - term. The strategy should gradually tilt towards technology under the technology and consumption dumbbell strategy. For the four major stock index futures, the balanced allocation of IH and IM can be tilted towards IM [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report provided detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, as well as their corresponding basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates [12][13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report presented data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, monthly, daily, and weekly changes of various indexes and sectors. It also analyzed the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and provided information on the valuation of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [36][38][39] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report showed data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates [51][52][53]

股指早报 中美贸易会谈中，A 股收 3399 2025 年 6 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2025.6.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月批发销售月率录得 0.1%，低于预期 0.3%和前 值 0.8%；美 5 月纽约联储一年通胀预期录得 3.2%，低于前值 3.63%， 数据指向美经济的边际回落。另外美国与中国贸易会谈昨日在伦敦举 行第一轮谈判在今日凌晨 3 点结束，第二轮将在今日 10 点开始。市 场密切关注会谈信息，从隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数震荡走低，美 债收益率短端和长端均上涨，黄金收涨，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指 收平，纳指和标普收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇 率升值。从走势来看，市场处于谨慎乐观。此次谈判关注重点在于是 否会降低关税，以及 90 天关税暂停期是否会延长等。 国内基本面上看，周一统计局公布 5 月通胀数据，5 月 CPI 同比 录得-0.1%，与前值一致，5 月 PPI 同比录得-3.3%，前值-2.7%。农 产品和猪肉价格对 CPI 期到拖累，PPI 则更多受能源价格的拖累。通 胀数据指向目前国内总需求依旧偏弱，经济修复依旧需要政策支持。 盘面上看，周一大盘高开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to US tariffs and the Fed's stance, the probability of a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is high, which will trigger asset fluctuations. The domestic A-share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The market may experience short - term fluctuations, and the real market trend will be observed after the festival [2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.2%, higher than the expected and previous value of - 0.3%. The monthly rate of the existing home sales contract index in April was - 6.3%, lower than the expected - 1% and the previous value of 5.5%, indicating an economic slowdown in Q1 and a cooling real - estate market. Fed's Goolsbee said that if tariffs are avoided, the Fed may return to a rate - cut scenario. The probability of a rate cut in September is 52.4%. US tariffs are volatile, causing overnight market fluctuations. The US dollar index fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold rose, US stocks rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate first depreciated and then appreciated. A divergence between the US dollar index and US Treasury yields is expected, and capital market volatility will increase [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market rebounded with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.37%. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume increased. Brokerage and technology sectors were active. Computer, medicine, electronics, and military industries led the gains, while beauty care, banking, food and beverage, and petrochemical sectors declined. There were 4468 rising stocks and 831 falling stocks [2][5] 1.3 Important Information - The US Court of Appeals allowed Trump's tariff policy to continue temporarily. Trump's officials were confident of victory in the lawsuit and believed alternative ways to impose tariffs could be found. Three agreements are expected in the next few weeks. The US Treasury Secretary said trade partners' attitudes remained unchanged in the past 48 hours. Trump met Powell and asked for a rate cut, but Powell insisted on monetary policy independence. There is no plan for Putin to talk with Trump. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to US semiconductor export controls and urged the US to cancel tariffs. The US decided to revoke Chinese student visas, and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized it. The Hongdao operating system was launched. Yushu's name change sparked listing speculation, and the company said it was a routine change [6][7] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Thursday's A - share and overseas market movements reflected news. Given US tariffs and the Fed's attitude, a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is likely, causing asset fluctuations. The domestic A - share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The Thursday's rebound was unexpected, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term. The real market trend will be observed after the festival [8] 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [10] Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are provided, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [11] 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading value, and other indicators of major domestic stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. It also includes data on different sectors such as upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and financial sectors [33] Impact of Market Styles on Index Fluctuations - Analyzes the impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [34][36] Index Valuation - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][40] Other Market Indicators - Includes data on the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, north - bound funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume [42][50] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels is provided, presented in graphical form [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes indicate that the Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined. The domestic market is in a short - term policy vacuum period, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no significant changes are expected. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an opportunity for the market to increase with increased trading volume after the festival. Recently, the market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen. Technically, there is still a distance to fill the gap around 3316, and short - term funds are more likely to choose to fill the gap and buy at the bottom. Additionally, attention should be paid to the liquidity of small - cap stocks to prevent extreme market conditions [2][12] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The Fed released FOMC meeting minutes, stating that due to rising risks in inflation and employment, and the uncertainty of the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy, the Fed strongly implied that it would not cut interest rates soon and clearly predicted stagflation. Some officials also hinted at the financial risk of rising long - term US bond yields. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields for 2 - year and 10 - year terms increased, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market fell 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31%. The market showed a volatile downward trend, similar to Tuesday, with limited index movements, accelerated sector rotation, and many stocks experiencing a shrinking - volume decline. Some popular stocks appeared on the decline list. In terms of sectors, textile and apparel, environmental protection, coal, transportation, and communication led the gains, while chemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1750 rising stocks and 3477 falling stocks in the whole market. China announced visa - free policies for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The EU trade chief will talk with the US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative on Thursday, with topics including tariff policies and cooperation in aviation, semiconductors, and steel. Three major German car companies are in consultations with the US Department of Commerce on tariff issues, aiming for an agreement in early July. Trump responded angrily to the "TACO" deal. The Fed meeting minutes showed rising risks of unemployment and inflation, and the "Fed whisperer" said that the stagflation prediction might be the keynote of the Fed's June economic forecast. Chinese officials emphasized China's commitment to high - level opening - up and welcomed US financial institutions to participate in the Chinese capital market. The Chinese government also focused on building a good platform economy ecosystem and strengthening the publicity of rare - earth export control policies. DeepSeek open - sourced a new version, and China implemented visa - free policies for four Middle - Eastern countries [6][7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed is facing inflation, employment, and financial risks, choosing a non - action strategy with reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. The domestic market is in a policy vacuum, with funds being reallocated. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, no major changes are expected. After the festival, attention should be paid to potential market increases. The market's expectation of subsequent adjustments has risen, and there is a chance for short - term funds to fill the gap around 3316. Attention should also be paid to small - cap liquidity [12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including details like closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and changes in trading volume and open interest [14][15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the performance of various stock indexes and sectors in the spot market, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation levels. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on different indexes [33][34][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rates, which are related to market liquidity [53]

股指早报 隔夜美财政焦虑有所缓解，A 股量价背离震荡中 2025 年 5 月 23 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.23 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 和服务业 PMI 均录得 52.3，均高于预期和前值；4 月成屋销售总数年化录得 400 万户，低 于预期 410 和前值 402；数据指向美制造业和服务业保持韧性但房地 产边际回落。目前美数据依旧处于强现实弱预期的状态中。另外特朗 普税改法案在众议院以微弱优势通过，交由参议院审议。税改方案会 加大增发美债的压力，对美财政形成影响。隔夜市场走势来看，美元 指数在连续回落后有所反弹，10 年期美债收益率上涨至 4.533%，2 年 期美债收益率则有所回落，黄金收跌，美三大股指涨跌不一，道指平 收，标普 500 指数收跌 0.04%，纳指数收涨 0.28%，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数下跌 1.18%，离岸人民币汇率震荡基本收平。隔夜走势市场对 美国财政问题的担忧有所缓解，但并未完全解除。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡下跌 0.22%，深成指下跌 0.72%，创业板指下跌 0.96%，市场呈现指数和个股齐跌走势。尽管指 数在盘中观察保持稳定， ...

股指早报 20 年美债拍卖遇冷，A 股震荡反复 2025 年 5 月 22 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.22 报告摘要： 海外方面，近期虽然美联储、美国财政部对穆迪下调美信用评级 进行了预期管理，但市场对美国财政问题的担忧并未消退。周三 160 亿美元的 20 年期美国国债拍卖最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破 5%大 关，反映投资者对美国国债的情绪进一步恶化。隔夜市场走势来看， 美债利率拍卖遇冷风险资产，美元指数进一步回落，10 年期美债收 益上升至 4.6%，黄金上涨，美三大股指跌幅均在 1%以上，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌 0.72%，离岸人民币汇率升值。关注美国资产资金 流出后流入新兴市场的迹象。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡上涨 0.21%，深成指上涨 0.44%，创业板指上涨 0.83%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹，但个股缺走弱 的走势。板块依旧是电风扇行情。从一级板块上看，煤炭、有色、电 力设备、银行涨幅靠前，美容护理、电子、社会服务、传媒跌幅靠前。 全市场 1615 只个股上涨，3599 只个股下跌。消息上看，中国与东盟 十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 整体来看，隔夜美 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in April was - 1%, lower than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of - 0.7%, indicating an economic slowdown. After Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, the Fed carried out market expectation management. Under the Fed's statements to downplay the impact, market anxiety eased. The U.S. dollar index fell and then rebounded, finally closing down 0.62% at 100.37; U.S. Treasury yields rose and then fell, finally closing up; gold closed up, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly up. The uncertainty and anxiety in the market will not subside in the short term, and the outflow of funds from U.S. assets should be tracked [1][6] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - The April economic data was in line with high - frequency data, with declines in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment. Due to the impact of tariffs in April, the decline in the economic fundamentals was in line with expectations. The Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation in May revised the pessimistic expectations, and the economy in May is expected to recover to some extent. On Monday, the market showed an oscillating and differentiated trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.08% and the ChiNext Index down 0.33%. The activity of individual stocks was fair, mainly driven by the news of the revised "Administrative Measures for Major Asset Reorganizations of Listed Companies". The environmental protection, real estate, military, and social service sectors led the gains, while the food and beverage, automobile, bank, and non - ferrous sectors led the losses. There were 3,560 rising stocks and 1,691 falling stocks in the whole market. Multiple state - owned and joint - stock banks will lower RMB deposit rates on May 20 [2][7] 3.1.3 Important Information - The U.S. Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting. The UK and the EU have reached agreements in multiple fields, and India is discussing a U.S. trade agreement. Putin is ready to cooperate on a peace - negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are signs of a cease - fire negotiation. The EU may propose to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel. In April, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic bonds by $10.9 billion, and turned to net - buy domestic stocks in late April. China's foreign trade shows resilience, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets is increasing. China urges the U.S. to correct its wrong practices on chip export controls. The current valuation of A - shares is relatively low, and the allocation value is more prominent. China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank have lowered RMB deposit rates [8][9] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [10] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The document provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [12][13] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of various spot market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation and trading volume data of the market through multiple charts [35][36][37] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The document presents charts on the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, reflecting the liquidity situation in the market [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall trading logic of black commodities since April has focused on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts, with the latter boosting the former [8] - There is still an oversupply pattern in coking coal and coke, and the long - term recommendation is to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [15][67] - The key to the far - end is whether steel can be "off - season but not weak", which depends on the real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing, and export situations [48] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, the trading logic of black commodities was centered on the near - end delivery game of coking coal and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts [8] 2. Current Situation of Coking Coal and Coke 2.1 Monthly Supply - Demand Situation - For coking coal, from January to February, domestic skeleton coal production was 35.65 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The cumulative production of domestic mines and imports was 54.5 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.68%. From January to March, pig iron production had a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The supply - demand surplus pattern still exists. For coke, from January to March, the cumulative production was 123.267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, and exports dragged down the growth rate by 0.64% [15] 2.2 Coking Coal Weekly Production and Inventory - Coking coal production and imports are still increasing, mainly due to the resumption of domestic mines. Upstream inventory shows that domestic mines are flat month - on - month and high year - on - year, while port inventories are declining. Downstream coking coal inventory is generally low, and the recent replenishment is coming to an end [20][25] 2.3 Coke Weekly Production and Inventory - Coke production has increased recently due to improved profits and increased pig iron production. If a second price increase occurs, coking profits are expected to enter the 50 - 100 range, which is a high - valuation range [30] 2.4 Valuation of Coking Coal and Coke - The document provides data on coking coal and coke warehouse receipts and basis calculations from 2023 - 2025 [34] 3. Forecast of Coking Coal and Coke 3.1 Near - Month Warehouse Receipt Game - The current coking coal position is relatively high, but compared with history, it is not extremely high. The near - month delivery game of coking coal is at a critical point, and the coke warehouse receipt game is not intense [46][47] 3.2 Far - End Key: Whether Steel Can Be "Off - Season but Not Weak" - **Real Estate**: From January to March, real estate enterprises were still in the active de - stocking cycle. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of funds in place was - 3.7%, new construction was - 24.4%, and the inventory pressure was still there [51] - **Infrastructure**: From January to March, the cumulative infrastructure growth rate was 11.5%, and the monthly growth rate was 12.5%. As of last week, 2.6 trillion of special bonds had been issued, mainly for debt resolution, and the subsequent project funds are expected to have a small negative growth [57] - **Manufacturing and Export**: The Sino - US tariff conflict has led to a change in industrial behavior and pressure on total demand contraction. The US still accounts for a relatively high proportion of China's exports, and the market has become pessimistic about global total demand [60][62] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In the past two weeks, the core of trading was the coking coal warehouse receipt game and the intensification of Sino - US tariff conflicts. In the long - term, it is recommended to short - allocate coking coal and coke at high premiums, while being vigilant when prices reach the valuation bottom [65][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The data indicates a marginal decline in the US real estate and manufacturing sectors. The Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's interest rate cut have affected the overnight performance of various assets. The lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates will increase asset price volatility. The statements from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May and the Politburo meeting at the end of April are important observation windows. The A-share market is in a process of strong government support and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, but the potential negative impact of the earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. The sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, and it is expected that the stock index will have a process of retesting the bottom in the short term [2][3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US new housing starts in March were 1.324 million units, lower than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. Building permits in March were 1.482 million units, higher than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 26.4, lower than the expected 2 and the previous value of 12.5. Fed officials continue to send hawkish signals, while the ECB cut interest rates by 25BP yesterday. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded, US bond yields rose, gold fell, the Dow and Nasdaq declined, the S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated [2][7]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market continued its previous rhythm. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The index was relatively stable, but individual stock sentiment was average. The "national team" played a significant role in the eight - consecutive - day rise of the market, but the market volume shrank, indicating that off - market funds are hesitant. The real estate, building materials, social services, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the automotive, non - ferrous metals, communications, and beauty care sectors led the losses. There were 3,125 rising stocks and 2,035 falling stocks in the whole market [3][8]. 1.3 Important News - Trump criticized Powell and called for interest rate cuts. There are differences within the US regarding Powell's dismissal. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU and satisfaction with the progress of negotiations with Japan. He also mentioned the signing of a Ukraine mineral agreement. Fed's Williams believes that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need for a quick adjustment. There were also a series of domestic and international events, including China - Cambodia cooperation, government policy - related statements, and China's stance on trade issues at the G20 meeting [9][10][11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Due to the lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the game between Trump and the Fed, external asset volatility has increased. The statement from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May is an important observation window. The A - share market is in a process of government rescue and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, with the Politburo meeting at the end of April as an observation window. The potential negative impact of earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. It is expected that the stock index will retest the bottom in the short term, and the increase in trading volume in the Shenzhen market is a sign of improvement. The strategy is to go long on the CSI 300 and short on the CSI 1000 in arbitrage, and gradually close positions according to market conditions during the index's retracement. For long - only positions, be stable and operate in a rolling manner without chasing the rise [3][12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also shows changes in trading volume, trading value, open interest, and net positions [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes in major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the trading volume and valuation information. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [35][36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [55].