Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, overseas risk aversion increased, and all assets declined, which had a negative impact on A-shares. However, on Thursday, domestic A-shares rallied towards the upper limit of a new platform driven by the new energy sector. In the absence of new catalysts, it is advisable to consider selling at the upper limit of the new platform. The report maintains the view that the broader market will oscillate within the range of 3900 - 4050, and the long-term slow bull trend remains unchanged [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history, which caused a loss of $1.5 trillion. The government may face another shutdown when the bill expires on January 30, 2026. The two parties reached a compromise where the Republicans promised to vote separately on the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by the second week of December 2025 [2][5]. - Fed officials continued to send hawkish signals, causing the market to realize that the Fed would not compromise with the Trump administration. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in December has dropped to 51.6%. After the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of a series of US economic data [2]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the 20th G20 Leaders' Summit and pay an official visit to Zambia [5]. - China has completed the first phase of 6G technology trials [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the broader market opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.55%. The leading sectors were in Shenzhen, especially the ChiNext, with lithium batteries, energy storage, and the Taiwan Strait concept leading the gains. In terms of sectors, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials led the gains, while public utilities, communications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and banks led the losses [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [9][10]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indices and sectors, such as the Wind All A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and various industry sectors [35]. - **Market Style Impact**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [36][37]. - **Valuation Analysis**: Provides valuation data and historical quantiles of important indices and Shenwan sectors [39][43]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open market operations, Shibor interest rates, and other indicators to track market liquidity [51][52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the White House stated that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released. Before the lack of economic data, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time. Overnight, the risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market rebounded slightly, with the US dollar index basically flat, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rising slightly, gold rising, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up, the Nasdaq closing down, the S&P 500 closing flat, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciating slightly. Attention should be paid to the final result of the US government's temporary appropriation bill [1]. - Domestically, on Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.39%. The market showed a volatile adjustment trend. In the morning, banks and oil stocks pulled up the index, but individual stocks declined. In the afternoon, although the index rebounded, most individual stocks did not follow, showing an obvious atmosphere of following the decline but not the rise. The sectors of household appliances, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and medicine and biology led the gains, while power equipment, machinery and equipment, computers, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1,756 rising stocks and 3,561 falling stocks in the whole market. The rumor about the photovoltaic industry was later refuted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. Overall, the overnight US stock market trend indicates that market funds tend to be defensive, which has a neutral impact on A - shares. The Shanghai Composite Index is stronger at the broad - based index level, while others are weaker. The market divergence is not significant yet. The view remains unchanged, expecting the broader market to maintain a volatile tone in the range of 3,900 - 4,050, with a long - term slow - bull trend unchanged, and it may stay at this level for a long time in the short term. The strategy remains a dumbbell strategy, being long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time [4]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook on January 21 next year [4]. - The White House said that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement in February next year and re - emphasized his hawkish stance a few hours later. The market expects a dovish successor under Trump [5]. - Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins said the Fed is likely to keep interest rates at the current level for some time. The labor market has not deteriorated, and it is necessary to ensure that inflation can sustainably return to 2% before cutting rates [5]. - Anthropic will invest $50 billion in building a data center in the US [6]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the head of the National Committee on US - China Relations, stating that China and the US should jointly maintain and implement the important consensus and outcomes of the leaders' meetings and promote the stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will continue to extend the visa - free policy for Spain to facilitate personnel exchanges [7]. - The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy [8]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the online rumors are all false information [9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - For the Shanghai 50 Index, different contracts (IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606) showed different closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change rates. For example, IH2511 had a closing price of 3,044, a settlement price of 3,046.8, a price increase of 13.2, and a price increase rate of 0.32% [11]. - Similar data are provided for the CSI 300 Index (IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, IF2606), CSI 500 Index (IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, IC2606), and CSI 1000 Index (IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, IM2606) [11]. Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume, trading volume change, trading value, trading value change, open interest, open interest change, weekly position increase, net position, and changes in long and short positions of different contracts of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 was 54,075, with a change of 3,933, and the trading value was 493 billion yuan, with a change of 37 billion yuan [12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., showed different current points, daily price change rates, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and their changes. For example, the Wind All - A Index was at 6,354, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and its trading value was 19,648 billion yuan, a decrease of 490.72 billion yuan [35]. - Different sectors also had different performance, such as the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising by 0.84%, and the power equipment sector falling by 2.10% [35]. Market Style Impact on Index Fluctuations - Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, stability) had different impacts on the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual fluctuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. For example, in the Shanghai 50 Index, the cyclical style had a daily contribution of - 0.12% [36]. Index Valuation - The current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., are shown. For example, the price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.68, with a historical percentile of 94.46% [39]. - The valuations and historical percentile rankings of Shenwan sectors are also presented [42]. Other Market Indicators - Market indicators such as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and changes in index trading values are provided through graphs [44]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and SHIBOR interest rates (overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month) are presented through graphs [50].

股指研究员：刘钇含 邮箱：liuyh@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z0015686 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 1 报告摘要： 海外方面，Revelio Labs 表述美国 10 月非农就业岗位减少 9100 个；芝加哥联储数据显示 10 月失业率约为 4.36%，创四年新高。就 业的走弱使得市场对于美联储降息的预期上升，根据美联储观察，12 月美联储降息的概率上升至 70.6%。但在就业数据走弱背景下，美联 储却继续向市场传递鹰派信号，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比认为缺乏可 靠的通胀数据，对降息保持谨慎；克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克强调通胀 风险，反对进一步降息。在就业数据走弱和美联储鹰派下，市场对于 美国经济基本面走弱预期增强，隔夜资产走势上看，美元指数下跌， 美债收益率下跌，黄金收微跌，美三大股指集体收跌，美股波动率下 跌，风险资产下跌，美债一转之前下跌走势转涨，市场交易经济陷入 衰退预期。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘高开高走上涨 0.97%，深成指上涨 1.73%，创业板指上涨 1.84%，市场延续反弹走势。科技板块的修复带 动了趋势性风格的回归，科技回归下大盘重回 4000，科技为主的风 格并未改变。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The current soybean meal price is close to the industry cost, with significant long - short divergence. The market focuses on the Sino - US negotiation results. The negotiation progresses smoothly, and there is a possibility of a US soybean purchase agreement. The soybean meal may weaken again due to the bearish sentiment [2][98] - Medium - term: The market agrees that China's soybean supply is sufficient this year. The 01 contract may be anchored to the lowest cost valuation. The only bullish factors for the 01 contract are the uncertain weather in the South American sowing season and the unpromoted 12 - month ship purchases. If US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year, the 03 contract will decline following the 01 contract [2][98] - Operation suggestion: Be cautious about bottom - fishing before the South American weather situation is clear. It is recommended to participate in the 1 - 5 reverse spread based on the logic of sufficient soybean supply in China before the end of the year [2][98] Summary Based on the Table of Contents I. Market Review - The fluctuation of the domestic soybean meal contract 01 has increased this week. After breaking through the support level and then strongly rebounding, the long - short game is intense. The market expects the Sino - US negotiation results to provide directional guidance. The CBOT US soybean main contract has strongly rebounded by more than 50 cents per bushel to around 1060 cents due to the optimistic expectation of the Sino - US negotiation and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US [5] II. Sino - US Expected to Reach an Agreement 2.1 Latest Trade Negotiation Progress - Since October, Sino - US game has intensified. After multiple rounds of communications and consultations, from October 25th to 26th, Sino - US economic and trade teams held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues and will go through the respective domestic approval procedures [25][26] 2.2 Impact of Negotiation Results on the Domestic Soybean Meal Market - If the negotiation makes no progress or only cancels part of the tariffs, the 03 contract may rise to repair the crushing profit. If all mutual - imposed tariffs are cancelled, the 01 and 03 contracts may weaken further. If China promises to increase the purchase of US soybeans, it will be a major bearish factor for domestic soybean meal [29][30][31] 2.3 Follow - up Concerns - Whether Sino - US will issue a joint statement this week and their interaction. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 31st to November 1st [33] III. Fundamental Overview 3.1 United States - **Reasons for the rebound and future trend of US soybeans**: The recent rebound of CBOT US soybeans is due to the strong domestic crushing demand in the US and the optimistic expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans. If US soybeans return to the Chinese market, CBOT US soybeans may rise, but the increase should not be over - optimistic. If not, the price may fall below 1000 cents [35][36] - **Harvest approaching the end**: The new - season US soybean harvest started in mid - September and is expected to be over 80% completed [37] - **No new - crop US soybeans sold to China**: Due to the current tariff level, China has not pre - purchased the 2025/26 new - crop US soybeans, and the sales progress of new - crop US soybeans is the slowest in the past decade [38] 3.2 Brazil - **Smooth sowing of new crops and increasing production forecast**: As of October 18th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%. The predicted export volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to reach 1.1211 billion tons, and the production is expected to be 1.7764 billion tons [47] - **Significant year - on - year increase in soybean exports**: In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 734.1 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. ANEC expects the export volume in October to be 734 million tons [49] - **A large amount of unsold old - crop soybeans**: The unsold old - crop soybeans in Brazil are estimated to be about 1500 - 2000 million tons [50] 3.3 Argentina - **New - crop sowing to start in mid - to late October with a reduced planting area**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Argentina is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [57] - **The suspension of export tax causing an earthquake in the global soybean market**: After Argentina suspended the export tax on soybeans and related products from September 23rd, the global soybean price fell, and the spot market in Argentina was booming. During the tax - suspension period, the cumulative export sales of soybeans exceeded 5 million tons, further confirming the sufficient soybean supply in China this year [58] 4.1 China - **Abundant soybean supply**: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in domestic oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons, and the annual cumulative import volume is expected to reach 112.18 million tons, a record high. As of October 18th, the purchase progress for November was 87%, 16.1% for December, and no purchase for January. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is still high [63][64] - **Support from rigid demand but hard to offset the short - term high supply**: Since August, the downstream replenishment ability has been limited. From September to October, the monthly feed production increased month - on - month, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed increased [82] IV. Future Outlook - **Futures market**: In the short - term, soybean meal may weaken due to the expected Sino - US soybean purchase agreement. In the medium - term, the 01 contract may be affected by weather and purchase progress, and the 03 contract may decline if US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year [98] - **Spot market**: In the short - term, the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of the year, and the weak basis may last until November. In the medium - term, the basis may rise slightly but will be restricted by the sufficient soybean supply [100]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation in Malaysia sent positive signals, with the two sides reaching a framework on issues such as fentanyl, ships, rare earths, and soybeans, and the 10 - month Sino - US trade friction is basically over for now [2]. - The US inflation in September was basically in line with expectations. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP this Thursday, but its stance on subsequent rate cuts may be dovish [3]. - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes technological self - reliance, and it is expected that industrial and fiscal policies related to the modern industrial system and technological self - reliance will be introduced. The financial report shows that finance is serving the real economy more closely, and policies will promote a moderately loose monetary policy and lower social comprehensive financing costs [4][5]. - The A - share market rebounded last week, with the technology growth sector as the main line. With multiple favorable policies over the weekend, the market is expected to break through 4000 points on Monday, but the short - term upside space is limited, and the market is expected to show a volatile rebound trend. Maintain long positions in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - **US CPI**: The US September CPI was lower than expected. Traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The US White House may not release inflation data next month for the first time in history [7]. - **Trade Agreements**: The US signed various trade and key mineral agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, and will maintain certain tariffs. Trump met with the Brazilian president for economic and trade negotiations, and announced additional tariffs on Canada and terminated trade negotiations with it [7]. - **Other News**: Trump said the stock market was stronger due to tariff policies. The US and Japan may sign a technology cooperation memorandum. Xi Jinping will attend the APEC meeting in South Korea. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur reached a preliminary consensus. The State Council emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy and high - quality financial services. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. The CSRC focused on enhancing the resilience and risk - resistance ability of the capital market [7][8][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Multiple charts show the basis of contracts and inter - period spreads of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, including the basis of each contract (current month, next month, current quarter, next quarter) and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [11][16][20]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Index Valuation**: Charts present the valuations and historical quantiles of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and the valuations and historical quantiles of Shenwan industries [31][33]. - **Market Volume and Turnover**: Charts show the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks in the two markets, the change in index trading volume, the relative return of stocks and bonds, the Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and the net purchase amount of margin trading and its proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: Ahead of the China - US negotiations, the US is considering restricting exports of products made with US software to China. The overnight US stock market's major indices closed down slightly, and the market showed strong resistance to this news. Inflation data will be released the next day, and other asset performances were relatively stable. Attention should be paid to tariff - related news and economic data [2]. - Domestic: On Wednesday, the broader market slightly declined, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling more significantly. The market still lacks a clear main line, and the profit - making effect of individual stocks is poor. Policy - oriented signals from the learning newspaper have given the market some confidence. The real estate and state - owned enterprise reform concepts are strengthening, indicating that funds are betting on the development of deep - earth economy, resource assetization, and asset securitization. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, and in the short term, it may retest the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - US Senate: The 12th rejection of the temporary appropriation bill led to a "shutdown" [5]. - Japan: The newly - appointed Japanese Prime Minister, Hayase Sanae, plans a procurement package to please Trump [5]. - Tariffs: India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on India to 15% - 16%. The Trump administration is preparing a drug investigation to pave the way for new tariffs [5]. - Russia - Ukraine Situation: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a liquefied natural gas import ban. The US is reported to allow Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia, but Trump called it fake news. The US Treasury sanctioned two major Russian oil companies, and Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [5]. - China - US Trade: Trump said that China and the US will reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit, but the foreign ministry has no information to provide [5]. - Shenzhen: It aims to exceed 20 trillion yuan in the total market value of domestic and overseas listed companies by the end of 2027 [6]. - Fund Rules: A draft for soliciting opinions on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds is about to be released [7]. - Foreign Exchange: In the first three quarters of this year, China's foreign - related payment and receipt totaled 11.6 trillion US dollars, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Cross - border capital inflows were 119.7 billion US dollars, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was 63.2 billion US dollars, both higher than the previous year [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Performance: The performance of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, is presented, showing the closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, basis, etc. [9]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume, trading volume change, turnover, turnover change, open interest, and open interest change of each contract are provided, along with the net position of the top 20 members [10]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Index Performance: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and price - to - earnings ratios of major indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are shown [29]. - Sector Performance: The performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, financial, and public utility sectors, is analyzed, including their price changes, trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios [29]. - Market Style Impact: The impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices is presented, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [30][31]. - Valuation: The valuations and historical quantiles of major indices and Shenwan sectors are shown [33][36]. - Market Activity: The Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes are presented [38]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Central Bank Operations: The central bank's open - market operations, including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection, are shown [44][45]. - Interest Rates: The Shibor interest rate levels are presented [44][46].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas: Overnight, gold closed down 5.31%. The decline was related to market structure as high prices led to less buying. The risk of the gold slump did not spread to other assets. Risk assets were supported by factors such as the expected end of the US government shutdown this week and optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The US dollar index, US bonds, and crude oil rose, the US volatility index fell sharply, and the three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance [2]. - Domestic: On Tuesday, the domestic market showed a rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%. The market was led by technology stocks like computing power hardware. Sectors such as communication, electronics, building decoration, and real estate led the gains, while coal declined. The market's mid - day rise on the previous day was an index - repair rebound rather than a new uptrend due to reduced trading volume and index incoordination. Short - term, the impact of precious metal retracement on the market needs attention, and the index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Medium - term, the market requires joint efforts from policies and fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - High - profile political events include the election of Kishida Fumio as the Japanese Prime Minister, the formulation of a 12 - point Russia - Ukraine peace plan by Europe and Ukraine, and Trump's intention to visit China next year [5][7]. - Diplomatic exchanges involve calls between Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Dutch Economic Minister Karel de Groot, and a video conference between Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Valdis Dombrovskis [7]. - Diplomatic responses were made regarding the US threat to cut off aircraft parts supply to China [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The report provides detailed price, volume, and position data for various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.09%, and its futures contracts IH2511, IH2512, etc., also showed different degrees of increase [9]. - **Base and Spread Data**: It also presents base and spread data for different contracts, which helps investors understand the relative price relationships between futures and spot markets and among different futures contracts [9]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Index Performance**: Multiple indexes, including the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index, showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the Wind All - A Index rose 1.62%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% [32]. - **Sector Performance**: Different sectors had different performances. Communication, electronics, and other sectors led the gains, while coal declined. The report also provides detailed data on sector performance in terms of price changes, trading volume, and other aspects [32]. - **Market Style Impact**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on major indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [33][34]. - **Valuation and Volume Data**: Presents valuation data for important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as market trading volume and turnover rate data, which helps investors understand the overall market valuation and trading activity levels [36][39][41]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Operations**: The report shows the central bank's open - market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection [50]. - **Interest Rate Data**: It also provides Shibor interest rate data, which reflects the short - term inter - bank lending rates [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US government shutdown may end this week, which will boost market risk appetite to some extent. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates next week with a probability of over 90% and continue to cut rates in December. Overnight, risk assets were boosted by the expected end of the government shutdown and Trump's remarks on trade negotiations. [2] - In the domestic A - share market, on Monday, the market showed a weak recovery trend with a shrinking volume. The market seems to be waiting for the release of the 14th Five - Year Plan. In the medium term, the stock index still has upward potential based on fundamental improvement and policy support. In the short term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the market style tends to be balanced. [3] 3. Summaries by Directory Important Information - The US and Australia signed a critical minerals agreement, and Trump said there would be an abundance of rare earths and critical minerals. [5] - The White House stated that Australian pension fund investment in the US will increase by about $1 trillion in the next decade. [6] - White House official Hassett said the government shutdown may end this week; if not, the White House will consider taking stronger measures. [6] - Concerns about bond violations triggered a panic in the Vietnamese market, and the stock index recorded its largest decline since April. [7] - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. [8] - The Ministry of Finance decided to conduct treasury bond market - making support operations in October 2025. [9] - The new loan prime rate remained unchanged, with the one - year and five - year LPRs staying the same. [9] - In September, the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. [10] Futures Market Tracking - **Index Futures Performance**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75%. Among the futures contracts, most showed fluctuations, with some contracts rising and some falling. For example, IH2511 in the Shanghai Composite 50 futures fell 0.37%, IF2511 in the CSI 300 futures fell 0.44%, IC2511 in the CSI 500 futures fell 1.30%, and IM2511 in the CSI 1000 futures fell 1.28%. [13] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Overall, trading volume and open interest decreased in most varieties. For example, the total trading volume of all varieties decreased by 193,934 lots, and the total open interest decreased by 16,919 lots. [14] Spot Market Tracking - **Market Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.75%. [36] - **Industry Performance**: Industries such as communication, coal, power equipment, and machinery had the highest gains, while non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, beauty care, and food and beverage had the largest declines. [3] - **Market Style Influence**: Different market styles had different impacts on various indexes. For example, the cyclical style had a relatively large daily contribution to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, while the financial style had a certain impact on the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes. [37][38] Liquidity Tracking - The report provides figures on central bank open - market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the Shibor interest rate level, but no specific analysis is given. [53][54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas market is caught between the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and trade frictions. Although U.S. stocks rose overnight, the increasing volatility indicates growing market concerns. The domestic A - share market shows resilience against external shocks, suggesting that the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with the banking sector providing significant support. The short - term market style will tend to be balanced, but this is only a temporary style switch. As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market style is expected to return to a technology - growth orientation [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index in October was 10.7, higher than the expected - 1.4 and the previous value of - 8.7, indicating a marginal recovery in U.S. manufacturing. Fed Governor Milan called for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of rate cuts still affects the market. Overnight, the market continued to be influenced by rate - cut expectations and remained cautious about tariff news. The U.S. dollar index declined, short - term U.S. Treasury yields fell while long - term yields were basically flat, gold prices rose, the Dow of the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down, the Nasdaq and S&P rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, but U.S. stock volatility increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated. There is uncertainty in the Sino - U.S. game, and the market is still in an observational state [2][5] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - Recently released economic and financial data in China are mixed. The export growth rate in September was better than expected, and the annual rates of CPI and PPI in September both rebounded compared to the previous values but were lower than expected. In the financial aspect, M2 growth declined in September, M1 increased year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing declined. The weak total demand still requires policy support. In addition to the current abundant macro - liquidity, the A - share market also needs positive fundamental catalysts. On Wednesday, the market showed a rebound after a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.36%. However, the rebound process was tortuous and mainly concentrated in the afternoon. Although the index performance was good, the individual - stock profit - making effect was poor, and the market's structural trend continued. Among the sectors, power equipment, automobiles, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while steel and petroleum and petrochemicals declined. There were 4332 rising stocks and 944 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6] 3.1.3 Important News - Fed Governor Milan called for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, suggesting two more rate cuts this year are realistic, and the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP. He also said that apart from gold, he couldn't see risk premiums in the market [7] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer spending decreased slightly, and labor demand was generally weak [8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to submit a list of three to four candidates to lead the Fed to Trump after Thanksgiving [8] - Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume action at his order [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [9] - The Ministry of Finance will implement the overseas tourist shopping tax - refund policy in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region starting from November 1 [10] - China sued India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures at the WTO, and the Ministry of Commerce responded that it would take resolute measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries [10] - Sanhua Intelligent Control verified that it did not receive large - scale robot orders [11] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The overseas market is caught between the Fed's interest - rate cuts and trade frictions. Although U.S. stocks rose overnight, the increasing volatility reflects growing market concerns. The domestic A - share market shows resilience against external shocks, indicating that the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with the banking sector providing significant support. The short - term market style will tend to be balanced, but this is only a temporary style switch. As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market style is expected to return to a technology - growth orientation [12] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock - index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index futures contracts, as well as their corresponding changes [14][15] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volumes, price - to - earnings ratios, and their historical quantiles of major stock indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and large - finance sectors [38] - The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on major stock indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is analyzed [39][40] - Valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are provided, including current valuations and historical quantiles [42][46] - Data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and net margin trading purchases and their proportions in A - share trading volume are presented [48][50][52] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Data on the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The dovish remarks of Fed officials have boosted market expectations for Fed rate cuts, while Sino-US trade frictions have intensified ahead of the APEC meeting, causing uncertainties in the market. The short - and long - term yields of US Treasuries have declined, gold has risen, and the US stock market has shown a volatile trend. The A - share market is in the process of risk release, with the short - term index expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the market style will be balanced in the short term but is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - Fed Chair Powell said that balance - sheet reduction may near an end in the next few months and that the downside risk of the employment market has increased. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified due to counter - measures against US subsidiaries and Trump's threat to terminate trade in certain commodities. The Fed's dovish signals have supported US Treasuries, gold, and US stocks, but the US stock market has shown a volatile trend [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined. The decline was due to the incomplete clearing of market risks on Monday. The banking sector provided support, while the STAR Market and ChiNext fell. The Sino - US trade friction has dampened market risk appetite. The banking, coal, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses [3][7]. 1.3 Important News - Fed: Powell believes that the balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has downside risks, and the Fed's actions need to be carefully balanced. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Trump will announce a list of projects to be shut down related to the government shutdown on Friday. The US will announce its national security strategy in a few weeks. Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic symposium. China's Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against five US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Ministry of Transport launched an investigation into the shipping and shipbuilding industries. A document on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon [8][9][13]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The short - term index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The market style will be balanced in the short term, but it is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [16]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other data of futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, and other data of each contract [18][19]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other data of the market [41][42][43]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level [57].