股指早报 A 股周期板块引领市场 2026 年 2 月 26 日 报告摘要： 海外方面，隔夜经济数据清淡，在财报方面英伟达四季度营收超 市场预期，并且再次给出乐观的季度营收预测，这表明大规模的人工 智能计算建设仍步入正轨，缓解了市场对于 AI 泡沫的担忧。隔夜外 围资产走势来看，美元指数下跌，10 年期美债收益率上行，黄金小幅 上涨，美三大股指集体上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收十字星下跌， 离岸人民币汇率继续升值。隔夜外围资产走势指向目前市场担忧情绪 缓解，利于提振科技板块风险偏好。后续继续关注地缘政治方面的博 弈。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘上涨 0.72%，深成指上涨 1.29%，创业 板指上涨 1.41%，市场呈现冲高回落走势。周期板块扛起上涨主线， 逻辑就是 PPI 涨价，涉及有色、石油、磷化工、光伏等资源板块。市 场成交量也有所放大，两会前估计此周期主线会持续。板块上看，钢 铁、有色、建筑材料、房地产、化工涨幅居前，传媒、银行下跌。全 市场 3742 只个股上涨，1609 只个股下跌。消息上看，上海打响 2026 年一线城市松绑限购第一枪，释放房地产改善预期。 整体来看，隔夜外围走势明显指向市场对 AI ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the strong US labor market data has lowered the recent rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25BP interest rate cut in June has dropped to 48%. The performance of assets in response to the non - farm payroll data is limited, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data on Friday [2]. - Domestically, the CPI in January was lower than expected, and the PPI was higher than expected, which is beneficial to the cyclical sectors. The A - share market is in a shrinking volume shock before the holiday, and the window guidance on star stocks only affects the corresponding sectors, indicating the resilience of the market. Investors can decide their holiday positions based on market performance and bet on the Hong Kong stock technology sector during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - US Non - farm Report: The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. After the release of non - farm data, traders lowered their expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world." The US Labor Secretary said the January employment report showed a strong US economy [5][6][7]. - Fed: Schmid advocates maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, believing that further interest rate cuts may lead to persistent inflation. Milan said he would be willing to stay at the Fed if nominated [8]. - Other News: Trump met with the Israeli Prime Minister and said reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred option." A source said Trump was privately weighing whether to withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The Ministry of Commerce announced that the bonus scale of the prize - winning invoices during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday will exceed 10 billion. Wenzhou Technology expressed extreme disappointment and strong dissatisfaction with the latest ruling of the Dutch corporate court in the Nexperia case. Three departments issued matters related to the connection of value - added tax preferential policies at the import stage after the implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law. The State Council announced that China will fully establish a unified national power market system by 2035, with the proportion of market - traded electricity increasing steadily. The low - altitude demonstration verification of the Long March 10 launch vehicle system and the maximum dynamic pressure escape flight test of the Mengzhou manned spacecraft system were successful [9][10][11]. Futures Market Tracking The text provides multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [15][22][29]. Spot Market Tracking - The text presents charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market weekly average trading volume, market weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [36][37][40]. Liquidity Tracking The text provides charts of the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, with data sources from Wind and Chuangyuan Research [45].

股指早报 临近假期 A 股震荡腾挪 2026 年 2 月 11 日 股指期货早报 2026.2.11 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 12 月零售销售月率录得 0，低于预期 0.4%和前值 0.6%，消费数据呈现边际走弱。另外美联储多位官员释放担忧通胀， 认为无迫切降息信号。而白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗则表示需修正对单月就 业人数的预期，但又并不预期就业数据会疲软。对比前期言论，指向 目前内部分歧较大，今晚将公布非农数据，关注数据情况。隔夜资产 走势来看，美元指数震荡，美债收益率回落，黄金小幅收跌，美股道 指收涨，纳指和标普收跌，中国金龙指数收涨，离岸人民币汇率升值。 外围波动率在压降。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘上涨 0.13%，深成指上涨 0.02%，创业 板指下跌 0.37%，市场开始产生分歧，而个股则走弱，市场风险偏好 降低。板块上 AI、传媒板块大涨，而其他板块则相对弱势。申万一级 板块上看，传媒、家用电器、煤炭、社会服务涨幅居前，房地产、食 品饮料、商贸零售、美容护理跌幅居前，全市场 2192 只个股上涨， 3122 只个股下跌。消息上看，国家发改委等八部门表示加快招标投 标领域人工智能推广应用。 整体上看，美公布 ...

股指早报 内外市场联动，临近假期股指震荡 2026 年 2 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2026.2.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特表示美联储不会急于缩减资产负 债表规模。而这表态缓解了市场对于美联储下任主席沃什支持缩表的 政策主张。另外美联储官员也开始表现鸽派，哈塞特表示未来几个月 就业人数应会减少，主因 AI 刺激生产力，因此不应引发恐慌。这句 话向市场传递的信号则是为美联储未来降息铺路。根据美联储观察， 美联储 6 月降息概率提升至 50.4%。隔夜外围资产在美开始救市的态 度转变下开始反弹。美元指数下跌，美三大股指、黄金等上涨，人民 币汇率继续升值。 国内盘面上看，周一大盘上涨 1.41%，深成指上涨 2.17%，创业 板指上涨 2.98%，市场呈现震荡反弹。在外围美股企稳反弹下，对周 一市场起到积极作用。光伏、科技与外围美股一样映射走高，传统化 工、有色也表现活跃。一级板块上看，通信、传媒、电子、计算机涨 幅居前，未有板块下跌。全市场 4609 只个股上涨，756 只个股下跌。 消息上看，昨日盘后消息中国三大证券交易所推出优化再融资一揽子 措施。IPO 数量可能上涨，利于券商。 整体 ...

股指早报 隔夜外围继续科技回落，大盘震荡整固 2026 年 2 月 5 日 股指期货早报 2026.2.5 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 1 月 ADP 就业人数录得 2.2 万人，低于预期 4.8 和 3.7 万人；美 1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 录得 52.7，高于预期和前值 52.5；美 1 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 53.8，高于预期 52.3，低于前 值 54.4。数据指向美劳动力市场的回落和制造业的回升。隔夜资产 走势来看，美元指数上涨，美债收益率短端回落，长端上行，黄金上 涨后回落最终收微涨，美股道指上涨，纳指和标普下跌，中国金龙指 数下跌，离岸人民币汇率贬值。外围美元指数上涨，黄金的大涨大跌， 美股科技延续科技下跌传统上涨的走势，光伏等概念上涨，这指向外 围避险情绪依旧存在，或可能继续升级，而对于科技，外围更多关注 重点在于业绩落地而不是长期叙事。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘上涨 0.85%，深成指上涨 0.21%，创业 板指下跌 0.4%，市场呈现震荡走势，涨幅基本上是尾盘收回，这指向 市场内部分歧较大，市场指数强于个股，热点集中在光伏电气设备。 板块上看，煤炭、建筑材料、房地产、交通运 ...

多晶硅周报：宏观脉冲，静待流动性修复 2026 年 2 月 2 日 多晶硅周报 报告要点： 联系人：贺崧泽 邮箱：hesz@cyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03143591 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 多晶硅周报 本周回顾： 本周宏观扰动大于基本面，市场升波显著，短期流动性受约束。首先 从基本面层面上游工业硅环节推进减产，多晶硅环节硅片环节虽然也 在着力推动减产，但是当前阶段减产仍不及预期，最终导致库存压力 持续增大。需求层面虽然抢出口在一定程度上提振了外需，但内需处 于季节性淡季且今年内需预期存在较为明显的同比下滑，最终使得下 游企业采购极为谨慎，进一步放大了该环境下上游的库存压力。因此 从结构上我们可以看见全行业利润都在持续的下滑，组件端虽然持续 挺涨，但是由于光伏主要原材料白银价格的快速上涨，使得原本就被 上游压缩利润的组件环节的利润被进一步削减。因此从基本面层面虽 然反内卷为市场情绪提供的一定支持，但是减产不及预期以及弱现实 仍然使得反内卷受到市场层面的质疑，使得价格支撑被一再削弱。 宏观层面受到美联储换帅影响，凯文·沃什当选使得近期较为一致的 市场预期出现了一定的分歧，及对美国缩表与否的分歧 ...

股指早报 隔夜外围波动大，A 股指数延续震荡 2026 年 1 月 30 日 股指期货早报 2026.1.30 报告摘要： 海外方面，隔夜外围资产大波动，昨晚 11 点美股、黄金大跌， 原油上涨，之后美股、黄金收复跌幅，最终美元指数收跌；美债收益 率短端长端小幅回落；黄金小幅收跌；原油收涨；美三大股指，道指 收涨，纳指和标普收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨，美股波动率指 数小幅收涨，离岸人民币汇率小幅贬值。隔夜市场上的消息除了关于 伊朗之外并未有其他黑天鹅事件，而黄金和原油的背离又指向并不是 跟地缘政治事件冲击相关，从隔夜资产走势来看，像触发了资金交易 的信号一样。隔夜外围的高波动对今日 A 股有一定负面影响。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘收涨 0.16%，深成指下跌 0.3%，创业板 下跌 0.57%，市场呈现震荡走势。板块上电风扇行情轮动，早盘 AI， 午盘白酒，有色强分歧，指数也明显背离，大盘收红，科创 50 大跌， 市场资金尝试切换风格至传统蓝筹。板块上看，食品饮料、传媒、房 地产、非银金融、石油石化涨幅居前，电子、军工、电力设备、机械 设备跌幅居前，全市场 1801 只个股上涨，3562 只个股下跌。消息上 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas data shows the resilience of the US economy, further dampening the Fed's rate - cut expectations. The Fed's non - rate - cut expectations, the possible US government shutdown, and geopolitical turmoil affect asset prices. US stocks are mainly influenced by economic fundamentals [2]. - On the domestic A - share market, the market showed a differentiated trend on Monday. The large - finance and other sectors rose, pulling the index up, while popular themes declined, and trading volume increased, showing a somewhat stagnant upward trend. The base for the broader market is around the 20 - day moving average or 4050. During the earnings report period, cyclical growth stocks with good earnings performance are more stable [2][3]. - The Securities Daily's call to "reject theme speculation and strengthen the rational foundation of the capital market" reflects the management's policy orientation towards a slow - bull market. With the approaching of the pre - Spring Festival trading period, the cooling of leveraged funds is inevitable [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Important Information - Trump raised the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's non - approval of the bilateral trade agreement [5]. - US media reported that Trump thought Iran hoped to reach an agreement [6]. - The probability of a US government shutdown before the end of January is about 80% [7]. - NVIDIA deepened its cooperation with CoreWeave, adding a $2 billion investment [8]. - The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September 2027 [8]. - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work meeting to proactively assess systemic financial risks and innovate policy tools to maintain financial market stability [8]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reminded Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong Treasury Bureau signed a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, aiming to exceed 2000 tons in three years to make Hong Kong a globally trusted gold storage location [9]. - Policies to foster new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon [10]. - Zijin Mining plans to acquire 100% of Allied Gold Corporation for 28 billion yuan [11]. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.57%, with its futures contracts IH2602, IH2603, IH2606, and IH2609 up 0.69%, 0.67%, 0.76%, and 0.78% respectively. The CSI 300 Index increased 0.10%, and its futures contracts IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 rose 0.21%, 0.22%, 0.30%, and 0.14% respectively. The CSI 500 Index fell 0.97%, and its futures contracts IC2602, IC2603, IC2606, and IC2609 dropped 1.98%, 2.17%, 2.42%, and 2.72% respectively. The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.24%, and its futures contracts IM2602, IM2603, IM2606, and IM2609 decreased 2.40%, 2.67%, 2.68%, and 2.91% respectively [13]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of futures was 778,013 lots, an increase of 176,215 lots. The total open interest was 39,867 lots, a decrease of 16,877 lots [14]. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The Wind All - A Index fell 0.68%, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.91%. Among sectors, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while military industry, automobiles, social services, and electronics led the losses [35]. - **Influence of Market Styles on Indexes**: For the SSE 50 Index, the cyclical style contributed positively, while the growth and consumer styles contributed negatively on the day. For the CSI 300 Index, the cyclical and financial styles contributed positively, while the growth and consumer styles contributed negatively. For the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes, most styles contributed negatively on the day [36][37]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The report presents the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market weekly average trading volume, weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume [38][44]. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US December existing - home sales pending index monthly rate was - 9.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating a cooling of the US real - estate market. Trump's actions led to a partial reversal of US assets, but market concerns remain. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields fell, gold rose, and US stock indexes collectively increased, while the offshore RMB exchange rate slightly depreciated [1]. - In the domestic market, on Wednesday, the broader market showed a weak rebound in the index with continued stock differentiation. Financial weights stabilized the index, while AI hardware and semiconductor weights supported the market, and AI software and commercial aerospace dragged down market sentiment. The market sentiment was weak. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery had the highest gains, while banks, coal, and food and beverage had the highest losses. The 6G technology test has entered the second stage [2]. - Overall, although US dollar assets have partially recovered, market concerns still exist. The overnight recovery of overseas risk assets is positive for A - shares. The A - share market is in the spring market stage, with the market in a short - term shock situation and mainly showing sector rotation. During the annual report performance disclosure period, industries with industrial support, policy catalysis, and performance support should be selected, such as technology (AI power, energy storage, etc.) and cyclical industries (chemicals and non - ferrous metals) [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important News - Greenland situation: Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland, withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island. Sweden's largest pension fund sold most of its US Treasury bonds worth about $7.7 - 8.8 billion. The European Parliament indefinitely froze the review of the EU - US trade agreement, and a potential Greenland agreement for the US military to build bases was exposed [4]. - The US Supreme Court may reject Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook [5]. - Trump's Davos speech: He will vigorously develop nuclear energy, criticize wind turbines, state no military seizure of Greenland, believe the stock market decline is insignificant and will rise with good news, worry about the loyalty of the new Fed chair, claim that the Ukraine issue is close to an agreement, and that the medical health policy will reduce US drug costs by 90% or more [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the start of the second - stage 6G technology test [6]. - The minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages in 20 cities in Guangdong is set at no less than 30% [6]. - Huang Renxun is reported to plan to visit China in late January [7]. - The US Trade Representative hopes to have another potential trade negotiation with China, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is addressing the "involution - style" competition in government procurement and abnormal low - price issues [7]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments will continue the tax policy for innovative enterprises issuing depositary receipts in the domestic market [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Details of the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other data of上证50,沪深300,中证500, and中证1000 index futures contracts are provided, including different contract expiration months (February, March, June, and September 2026) [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Information on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, net open interest, and changes in long and short positions of the above - mentioned index futures contracts is presented [10]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Data on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading value, and other indicators of various major indexes such as万得全A,上证指数,深证成指,创业板指,上证50, and沪深300 are given, as well as data for different industries [32]. - **Impact of Market Styles on Indexes**: The impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the上证50,沪深300,中证500, and中证1000 indexes is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [33][34]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: Valuation and historical percentile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, along with data on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases and their proportion in A - share trading value [35][38][41] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: Data on currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection of the central bank's open - market operations are provided [47][48]. - **Shibor Interest Rate Levels**: The levels of different - term Shibor interest rates are shown [47][49]

报告摘要： 海外方面，美总统特朗普对欧洲 8 国加征关税，因格林兰岛的问 题目前还不能确定特朗普后续采取的策略是否会退缩。隔夜市场继续 延续避险情绪升温，美元指数大跌，黄金大涨，美三大股指、美债包 括其他主要国家债券、日本、欧盟等都出现抛售，美股波动率指数大 涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率震荡维持稳定。外 围地缘政治不确定使得市场抛售美元资产。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘微跌 0.01%，深成指下跌 0.97%，创业 板指下跌 1.79%，市场呈现震荡走势。科技板块内部出现分化，多数 科技题材回调，相反化工、地产、煤炭、电力等价值上涨。周一公布 的去年四季度 GDP 录得 4.5%，相比前值 4.8%有所回落，市场资金开 始对稳增长政策有期待。申万一级板块上看，石油石化、建筑材料、 房地产、交通运输、建筑装饰涨幅居前，通信、军工、计算机、电力 设备涨幅居前。全市场 2231 只个股上涨，3102 只个股下跌。消息上 看，发改委表示将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实施 方案。昨日盘后主席表示要正确处理消费和投资、需求和供给的关系 让内需成为经济发展的主动力。政策层面对消费的支撑利 ...