股指早报 鲍威尔释放中性偏鸽信号，A 股顺势而为 2025 年 8 月 25 日 股指期货早报 2025.8.25 报告摘要： 海外方面，上周美国经济数据有所反弹，8 月服务业 PMI 和制造 业 PMI 均超预期，制造业回升至荣枯线上方。另外周五鲍威尔在杰克 逊霍尔央行年会上表示风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策。其认为就 业风险趋于上行，关税引发的通胀或是一次性的，货币政策上美联储 需要在滞胀风险中取得平衡，暗示降息。但是对于长期货币政策上认 为应该回落正常，也就是长期 2%的通胀目标和充分就业，这意味降 息的幅度不会太大。中性偏鸽的信号超出市场预期，市场对今年降息 预期回升，上周美元指数下跌，美债收益率回落，黄金上涨，美三大 股指道指和标普上涨，纳指微跌。关注本周将公布 7 月 PCE 数据和经 济数据，如果经济活动回暖，那么又可能增加 9 月不降息的预期。 国内方面，在公布的 7 月经济数据工业增加值、零售销售和固定 资产投资均不及预期的前提下，上周 A 股走出反弹走势，创去年 924 以来新高。在经济数据低于预期下，市场对于后续经济政策加码的预 期增强，反而支撑 A 股，同样也能反映出 A 股围观资金的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significantly higher-than-expected US PPI in July dampened the market's expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in risk assets that were previously priced too optimistically for rate cuts. The domestic A-share market experienced a single-day correction after reaching a new high without a clear market leader. The correction is normal, given the weak fundamentals and capital-driven nature of the A-share market, and there is no need for excessive concern. The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting a short-term focus on individual stocks rather than the index, and emphasizes rotation opportunities within the technology growth sector. In terms of stock indices, it recommends going long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 [2][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The monthly rate was 0.9%, higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0. This indicates the impact of tariffs on the US production side. The unexpectedly high PPI has dampened the expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has slightly decreased to 92.1%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point cut has dropped from 64.4% to 55.2%. Overnight, US stocks and bonds declined, the US dollar index rose, and gold fell as the market adjusted its overly optimistic pricing of future Fed rate cuts. The Jackson Hole Symposium next week will be crucial to watch for the Fed's stance on future monetary policy [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened higher but oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The market showed an adjustment trend. In the morning, while the index rebounded, individual stocks declined. The rally of core blue-chip stocks suppressed the risk appetite of other stocks, increasing capital divergence. With no clear market leader and approaching the mid-to-late performance reporting period, the market is concerned about whether individual stocks can support the index's gains. Among the primary sectors, only the non-bank financial sector rose, while military, communication, steel, and textile and apparel sectors led the decline. There were 734 rising stocks and 4,644 falling stocks in the entire market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US will retain gold as a store of value and is unlikely to reevaluate its gold reserves. Bitcoin reserves are valued at approximately $15 - 20 billion, and the US will stop selling its Bitcoin holdings. Yellen also clarified that she did not call for a 150-basis-point rate cut by the Fed but noted that models suggest a lower neutral interest rate [6]. - Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. Mary Daly said that a large rate cut next month seems inappropriate, and Rafael Bostic stated that a 50-basis-point cut does not align with the current economic situation or data [6]. - US President Donald Trump said that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin goes well, he will call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; otherwise, he will not call anyone. The meeting with Putin lays the foundation for a second meeting, and if issues cannot be resolved, sanctions will be imposed. Market sources suggest that Western leaders are considering the possibility of hosting a tripartite summit among Russia, the US, and Ukraine in a European city [6]. - Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the US is seeking an agreement acceptable to all parties, and it is possible to reach a new arms control agreement with the US. The Kremlin stated that there are no plans to sign a document on the results of the Russia-US summit [7]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of six months [8]. - The Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Aliens have been amended to add a new K visa to the ordinary visa category, which will be issued to foreign young scientific and technological talents entering China [8]. - CK Hutchison Holdings stated that it does not expect to complete the port transaction this year and will invite mainland investors to participate in the much-anticipated port transaction [8]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued a joint statement on the market volatility related to stablecoins. The HKMA reiterated that it will adopt a prudent approach when considering applications for stablecoin issuer licenses and set high thresholds [8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The significantly higher-than-expected US PPI in July dampened the market's expectation of substantial future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in risk assets that were previously priced too optimistically for rate cuts. The domestic A-share market experienced a single-day correction after reaching a new high without a clear market leader. The correction is normal, given the weak fundamentals and capital-driven nature of the A-share market, and there is no need for excessive concern. The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook, suggesting a short-term focus on individual stocks rather than the index, and emphasizes rotation opportunities within the technology growth sector. In terms of stock indices, it recommends going long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 [9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, premium/discount rates, annualized premium/discount rates, contract delivery dates, and remaining times for various futures contracts, including those for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, and changes in net positions, short positions, and long positions for each futures contract are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and other aggregated data are also provided [12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual percentage changes, trading volumes, trading values, and other indicators for major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as various industry sectors [35]. - **Influence of Market Styles on Index Fluctuations**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the fluctuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions of each style [36][37]. - **Valuation of Important Indices and Sectors**: Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important stock indices and Shenwan industry sectors [39][43]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Includes charts showing the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, changes in index trading value, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases and their proportion in A - share trading value [45][47][48]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank's Open Market Operations**: The report provides a chart showing the central bank's open market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection [52][53]. - **Shibor Interest Rate Levels**: A chart showing the levels of Shibor interest rates for different tenors is presented [52][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Trump may soon announce the next Fed Chair. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be beneficial for A-shares. However, the external market environment is highly uncertain due to Trump's threats regarding tariffs and energy sanctions. A-shares have shown strong index performance in the past two days but lack trading volume. In the short term, it is necessary to monitor whether the trading volume will recover and the activity of the technology sector to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [1][2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market View 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US service industry data indicates resilience, with the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (below the expected 51.5 but above the previous value of 50.8) and the July S&P Global services PMI at 55.7 (above both the expected and previous values of 55.2). - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair candidates have been narrowed down to four, and an announcement may be made soon. The US will announce tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. Trump also threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. These factors have dampened market risk appetite, leading to a weaker US dollar index, a decline in short-term US Treasury yields and an increase in long-term yields, a rise in gold prices, a collective decline in US stock indices, a decline in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, and a slight depreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the potential for Fed rate cuts is seen as a positive for A-shares [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market continued its rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.39%. The strength of the Shanghai Composite Index was mainly due to the contribution of the large financial sector. Although more stocks rose than fell, the market sentiment was slightly weaker than on Monday. All primary sectors rose, with banks, steel, media, communications, and non-bank finance leading the gains, while pharmaceutical biology, computer, and building materials had the smallest increases. A total of 3,901 stocks rose, and 1,325 stocks fell. The central bank and six other departments jointly issued a document to promote financial support for new industrialization, which is essentially a financial supply-side reform aimed at breaking through bottlenecks through precise capital allocation [2][5]. 1.3 Important Information - **Tariffs**: Trump will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips in the next week, with the maximum pharmaceutical tariff reaching 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US trade deficit in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [6]. - **Political News**: Trump believes that Vance is the most likely candidate for the next president, and Secretary of State Rubio would be a helpful ally. Trump may soon announce a new Fed Chair, with four candidates, and Besent hopes to remain in the Treasury. Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. The State Council General Office issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre-school education, starting from the fall semester of 2025, waiving tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is strengthening constraints on third parties involved in capital market fraud. The central bank and six other departments are guiding banks to provide medium- and long-term financing for key manufacturing industrial chains such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines. The National Health Commission and other departments jointly issued an implementation plan for a healthy environment promotion action [6][7][8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Monitor the recovery of trading volume and the activity of the technology sector in the short term to determine if the market will oscillate and break through the 3,674-point mark. In the long term, the market is expected to move upward with oscillations. The report is optimistic about the technology sector and suggests paying attention to its performance [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also presents charts showing the basis, inter - contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest trends of these futures contracts [12][13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual returns, trading volumes, and valuation quantiles of major stock indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others. It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. Additionally, it provides valuation and trading volume data for various industries [37][38][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts showing central bank open - market operations (in billion yuan) and the Shibor interest rate levels [50].

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US economic structural resilience is reflected in the manufacturing PMI falling below the boom-bust line while the service sector maintains high expansion. Market bets on the Fed's interest rate cut have decreased, and the EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US. Currently, the impact of the overseas market on A - shares is limited [1][5]. - Domestically, on Thursday, the market showed a rebound in both indices and individual stocks. The focus is on stabilizing the economy and anti - involution policies, with high expectations for the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The market is dominated by bulls, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to brokerage and technology growth sectors [2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the service sector was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in September has dropped to 58.4%. The EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. Overnight, the US dollar rose slightly, the US bond yield fell, gold dropped, and the three major US stock indices showed mixed trends [1][5]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.65%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.5%. Beauty care, non - ferrous metals, steel, and other sectors led the gains, while banks, communications, and public utilities declined. Jiangte Motor and Zhongkuang Resources have carried out maintenance and technological transformation, and regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai are standardizing lithium - related resource production. Anti - involution will be a key driver for the medium - to long - term profit restoration of the new energy industry [2][6]. 1.3 Important News - Tariffs: The EU has passed a 93 billion euro anti - tariff plan against the US; India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US and has signed a free - trade agreement with the UK [7]. - "Firing Powell" incident: Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell [7][8]. - Thailand - Cambodia conflict: There was a cross - fire in the disputed border area, and Thailand dispatched 4 F - 16 fighter jets [8]. - The European Central Bank maintained key interest rates, and traders reduced bets on the ECB's interest rate cut [8]. - Other news: President Xi Jinping met with European leaders; the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized anti - involution; the central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan MLF operation; the market supervision department will carry out a quality safety rectification of power banks [9][10]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The game between Trump and the Fed continues, and market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have cooled. Domestically, the focus is on stabilizing the economy and anti - involution policies. The market is dominated by bulls, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to brokerage and technology growth sectors [11]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, as well as data on trading volume, turnover, open interest, and the positions of the top 20 members [13][14]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and trading volume of various indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index are presented. Different sectors show different performance and valuation levels [36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts on the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which can be used to track market liquidity [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the dovish stance of the next potential Fed Chair and strong US economic data boosted US stocks. In China, GDP recovery exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, but industrial enterprise profits are currently low, leading the market to anticipate pro - growth policies. Under these circumstances, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can also be sustained. Key areas to focus on are large - financials and technology growth sectors, and for stock index futures, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 are recommended. The market index has stabilized above 3500 after several days of consolidation, showing signs of a rebound [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Overseas Overnight**: US economic data in June and July showed resilience. The former hawkish Fed governor Wash shifted to the rate - cut camp. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, gold fell, crude oil rose, US stocks closed higher, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly [2][5]. - **Domestic Market Review**: On Thursday, the market showed a volatile rebound. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%. Due to the drag of heavy - weight sectors like banks, the market had a pattern where Shenzhen was stronger than Shanghai. Funds began to favor technology - growth stocks and brokerage stocks, which was beneficial for market sentiment, but there was no clear market leader. Military, communication, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, environmental protection, and public utilities sectors led the losses. There were 3535 rising stocks and 1609 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6]. - **Important News**: There were various news items including tariff policies, Fed officials' remarks on interest rates, Trump's call for Fed rate cuts, responses from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance's adjustment of luxury car consumption tax, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's statement on the banking system [7][12]. - **Today's Strategy**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can be sustained. Focus on large - financials, technology growth, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [13]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided, along with information on their contract delivery dates and remaining times [15]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volumes, trading volume changes, open interests, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts were presented, including the overall situation and that of each specific contract [16]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and other indicators of various stock market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others was provided, as well as data on different sectors [38]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on major stock indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) was analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [39][40]. - **Valuation**: Valuation data and historical quantile information of major stock indices and Shenwan sectors were presented [42][45]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases was provided [47][51]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates was presented, but specific data was mainly in graphical form [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overseas market is affected by the hawkish signals from key figures of the Federal Reserve, and the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to fluctuations. The repeated Trump tariffs also add difficulties to subsequent negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI turned positive in June 2025, while the negative value of PPI expanded, squeezing industrial enterprise profits. The continuous stable - growth policies and loose monetary policies cause the A - share market to fluctuate in sector rotation. The market still needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 and the previous value of 232,000, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. Different Federal Reserve officials have different views on monetary policy. Some suggest a higher probability of interest rate hikes, while others support two interest rate cuts this year. The market is currently pricing in interest rate cuts, but there may be short - term fluctuations. In terms of tariffs, the US - Vietnam tariff negotiation has changed from 11% to 20%, which may have a negative impact on the US's negotiations with other countries. Overnight, the US dollar index rose slightly, the short - end US Treasury yield rebounded, gold closed up, crude oil fell, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock polarization. The banking sector contributed significantly to the index, and the brokerage and real estate sectors continued to support the market in the afternoon. Only some sectors such as photovoltaic and rare earths showed performance, and there was no sustainability in sector trends. Among the primary sectors, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - bank finance led the gains, while automobile, media, military, and electronics led the losses. There were 2,945 rising stocks and 2,278 falling stocks in the whole market [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - **Federal Reserve Officials' Statements**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Others consider implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and believe there will be two cuts this year [6]. - **Regulatory Proposals**: The Federal Reserve proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks [8]. - **Global Trade Progress**: The US Secretary of Commerce will visit Japan next week. The EU - US tariff negotiation is accelerating, with the automobile industry being the EU's "red line". Brazil may request the cancellation of tariffs, and Chile seeks exemption from US copper tariffs. Vietnam disagreed with the tariff rate announced by Trump [8]. - **China - related News**: China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation is fully completed and will sign the protocol within this year. The Ministry of Finance excludes EU enterprises from participating in medical device government procurement projects worth over 45 million RMB. The Ministry of Commerce has launched a special campaign against the smuggling of strategic minerals exports and is in close communication with the US on economic and trade issues [8][9]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to the possible fluctuations caused by the market's over - pricing of interest rate cuts due to the hawkish signals from key Federal Reserve figures. The repeated Trump tariffs make subsequent negotiations more difficult. In the domestic market, due to the situation of CPI and PPI and the continuous policies, the A - share market fluctuates in sector rotation. The market needs time to adjust, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the dumbbell strategy remaining unchanged [10]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change ratios, basis, and other information of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [12]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [13]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price change ratios, trading amounts, and other information of various indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index. It also provides the performance of different sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, large - scale finance, and public utility sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The influence of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are presented, as well as information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading amount changes, risk - return ratio, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount [41][43][45]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the SHIBOR interest rate level [51][52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Trump announced tariff rates on different countries, with most effective dates postponed to August 1st, increasing market uncertainty and causing the overnight market's risk aversion sentiment to rise. The A - share market is back to the situation where dividend - paying sectors such as banks and power protect the market, showing obvious characteristics of stock - based game, and the index will continue to fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. It is expected that the market will show divergence today [2][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods effective August 1st, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on countries like Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Laos, with the effective dates extended to August 1st. The Fed research report warns of the risk of zero interest rates, and Fed Chair candidate Wash advocates for lower interest rates. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, gold closed slightly down, U.S. stock indexes fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated [1][4]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Monday, the broader market opened lower and fluctuated slightly up by 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21%. The market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The implementation of the quantitative new rules on the first day did not have a significant negative impact on the market. Public utilities, real estate, light manufacturing, and environmental protection sectors led the gains, while coal, pharmaceutical biology, communication, and household appliances sectors led the losses [2][5]. 1.3 Important News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, with tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea at 25% and 25% - 40% on others from August 1st. The EU claims good progress in trade negotiations with the U.S., and there are calls for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed warns of zero - interest - rate risks. China aims to have over 100,000 high - power charging facilities by the end of 2027. China opposes tariff and trade wars. China's gold reserves increased for the 8th consecutive month, and foreign exchange reserves rose in June [6][7][8]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Trump's announced tariffs are similar to those in April, with some increases and decreases, and all effective dates are postponed to August 1st. The uncertainty of counter - measures from other countries increases market uncertainty, and the risk aversion sentiment has risen. The A - share market is back to the situation where dividend - paying sectors protect the market, and the index will continue to fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points, with expected market divergence today [2][9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes [11][12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The performance of various spot market indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is presented, including current points, daily, weekly, and monthly percentage changes, and trading volume. The impact of market styles on major indexes is analyzed, and data on the valuation of important indexes and Shenwan sectors are provided [33][34][35]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates are presented, including currency injection, withdrawal, and net injection, as well as different - term Shibor interest rates [49][50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm data has significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, while US stocks have shown an independent upward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible tariff agreements the US may reach with other countries before July 9. For China, the second-phase trade negotiation between China and the US has been implemented, with the restrictions on chip design EDA and ethane lifted, and the tariff negotiation related to China may be postponed to August. The domestic A-share market remains in a structural stock game. Although the index rebounded on Thursday, the trading volume shrank, and the index may face divergence in the short term. The index will generally fluctuate between 3400 - 3500, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [2][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Market - US non-farm employment in June was 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market and significantly reducing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in July dropped to 4.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25BP rate cut in September dropped to 64%. Affected by the decline in rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rose, the yields of short - and long - term US bonds increased, gold prices fell, crude oil prices closed down, but the three major US stock indexes rose independently, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Attention should be paid to US tariff news as the July 9 tariff suspension deadline approaches [1][6]. Domestic Market - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated, and rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend. Blue - chip stocks such as banks dragged down the market, showing a pattern of stronger Shenzhen and weaker Shanghai. Ningde Times had the greatest contribution to the rise of the ChiNext Index. Sector rotation continued, and the sustainability of the marine economy and anti - involution sectors was poor. The consumer electronics sector strengthened, mainly stimulated by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Although the technology sector remained active, the lack of incremental funds in the market made it difficult to drive up. In terms of sectors, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology, communication, and building materials led the gains, while coal, transportation, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the losses. There were 3,270 rising stocks and 1,863 falling stocks in the whole market [1][7]. 2. Important Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, stating that tariffs could return to the level of April 2, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. - Trump will send letters to trade partners as early as Friday local time to inform them of unilateral tariff rates. - EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration before July 9; Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said Trump may be misled on tariff issues; Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US; Canadian Finance Minister said Canada can reach an optimal trade agreement with the US and there will be no more digital tax. - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed in the House of Representatives with two Republican lawmakers defecting, and Trump will sign it early on Saturday. - Trump had a phone call with Putin to discuss the Middle East situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and also plans to have a phone call with Zelensky on Friday to discuss military aid issues. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that rare earths will not be a problem between China and the EU. - The US - Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that relevant agreements should not harm third - parties. - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [8][9][10]. 3. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [15][16]. 4. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of major domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of various sectors and the impact of market styles on different indexes [39][40][41]. 5. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the interest rates of different tenors of Shibor [54][55][56].