股指早报 20 年美债拍卖遇冷，A 股震荡反复 2025 年 5 月 22 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.22 报告摘要： 海外方面，近期虽然美联储、美国财政部对穆迪下调美信用评级 进行了预期管理，但市场对美国财政问题的担忧并未消退。周三 160 亿美元的 20 年期美国国债拍卖最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破 5%大 关，反映投资者对美国国债的情绪进一步恶化。隔夜市场走势来看， 美债利率拍卖遇冷风险资产，美元指数进一步回落，10 年期美债收 益上升至 4.6%，黄金上涨，美三大股指跌幅均在 1%以上，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌 0.72%，离岸人民币汇率升值。关注美国资产资金 流出后流入新兴市场的迹象。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡上涨 0.21%，深成指上涨 0.44%，创业板指上涨 0.83%，市场呈现指数震荡反弹，但个股缺走弱 的走势。板块依旧是电风扇行情。从一级板块上看，煤炭、有色、电 力设备、银行涨幅靠前，美容护理、电子、社会服务、传媒跌幅靠前。 全市场 1615 只个股上涨，3599 只个股下跌。消息上看，中国与东盟 十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区 3.0 版谈判。 整体来看，隔夜美 10 ...

股指早报 美 10 年期利率回到 4.5%附近，A 股震荡蓄势中 2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货早报 2025.5.20 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，低于预期 0.9% 和前值-0.7%，数据指向美经济的降温。另外在上周末国际信用评级 机构穆迪将美国的信用评级下调后，美联储开始对此进行市场预期管 理，多位美联储官员密集发表讲话，美联储副主席杰斐逊表示将穆迪 调降美国评级作为制定政策的一般数据处理。美联储威廉姆斯表示目 前未见资金大规模撤离美国资产，货币政策处于良好位置。达拉斯联 储主席洛根表示美联储应考虑加强机制，以在市场出现压力时更有效 地防止货币市场利率飙升。在美联储密集发言淡化信用下调影响下， 市场焦虑情绪有所缓解，隔夜美元指数大幅下跌后反弹，最终收跌 0.62%，报 100.37；美债收益率短端和长端均大幅上涨后回落，最终 收涨；黄金收涨，美三大股指集体收微涨。原先美国巨额债务是灰犀 牛，目前被市场点名明后，市场的不确定和焦虑不会在短时间消退， 后续需对此进行跟踪，关注美国资产资金的流出状况。 国内盘面上看，周一公布 4 月经济数据，与高频数据指向一致， 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]

近月仓单博弈，远期关注需求 研究院黑色建材小组 01 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 螺纹 热卷 铁矿 焦炭 焦煤 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 螺纹 热卷 铁矿 焦炭 焦煤 黑色商品05合约4月涨跌幅（收盘价） 4月以来，黑色的整体交易逻辑就集中在，焦煤近端交割博弈以及中美关税冲突加剧两者身上，并且后者还对前者构成助力。 3 资料来源：Wind，创元研究 行情回顾 仓单博弈时，碰到中美关税冲突加剧 2025年4月黑色商品05合约表现（收盘价，归一化） 02 当下双焦的状况 2.1，月度供需情况 汾渭骨架煤供需增速图1-2月，国内骨架煤产量3565万吨，同比+4.21%，内矿+进口累计5450万 吨，累计同比+4.68%，1-2月铁水累计同比-0.5%，1-3月铁水累计同比+0.8%。参考高频数据来 看，预计3月内矿骨架煤产量增加15%左右，进口预计持平或小幅正增长，整体增速预估在10% 左右。于此同时，3月铁水同比增长3.1%。供需过剩格局仍存。 焦炭统计局产量增速V ...

特朗普与美联储博弈，A 股缩量维持存量博弈 2025 年 4 月 18 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.18 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 3 月新屋开工总数年化录得 132.4 万户，低于预期 144.6 和前值 145.9 万户；美 3 月营建许可总数录得 148.2 万户，高 于预期 144.6 和前值 145.9 万户；4 月费城联储制造业指数录得- 26.4，低于预期 2 和前值 12.5。数据指向美房地产和制造业的边际 回落。另外美联储官员继续向市场释放鹰派信号，美联储威廉姆斯表 示货币政策处于良好位置，目前不认为需要很快调整利率。而欧央行 昨日宣布降息 25BP。在欧央行降息，美联储鹰派的影响下，隔夜美元 指数下跌有所企稳，最终收涨；美债收益率均有所反弹；黄金回落； 美三大股指道指和纳指下跌，标普收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌， 离岸人民币汇率震荡。目前特朗普关税政策未有新进展，美联储又迟 迟不降息，内外部压力较大下会推高资产价格波动，5 月初美联储的 议息会议的表态是一个较好跟踪窗口。 国内盘面上看，周四延续之前的行情节奏，大盘上涨 0.13%，深 成指下跌 0.16%，创业板指上涨 0.09%， ...

股指早报 关税谈判观察期，A 股业绩报风险仍需注意 2025 年 4 月 16 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.16 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月纽约联储制造业指数录得-8.1%，高于预期- 14.5 和前值-20，数据指向美制造业回落但幅度放缓。关税方面，据 外媒报道美欧贸易谈判零进展，欧盟预计美国将维持对其的关税政 策。白宫新闻秘书莱维特强调特朗普明确表示他愿意与中国达成协 议，因此，中国需要与美国达成协议。虽然目前关税谈判状态处于僵 持中，但其中隐含升级的风险。隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数小幅反 弹，美债收益率有所回落，黄金上涨，美三大股指均下跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率贬值，继续跟踪关税方面消息， 这会加大资产的波动。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘低开震荡上涨 0.15%，深成指下跌 0.27%，创业板指下跌 0.13%，市场呈现指数窄幅震荡，个股分化行情 走势。板块上银行涨幅居前，说明主要还是稳指数，市场风险偏好并 未明显回升。另外值得注意的是盘中指数回踩的过程中出现国家队的 护盘，且主要聚焦在沪深 300，小票中证 2000 则未有动作，这说明 目前国家队稳指数的意图还是很明显。板块 ...

股指早报 A 股周三扛住极限施压，特朗普宣布 90 天关税暂停 2025 年 4 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，欧盟通过了对价值 232 亿美元的美国进口产品征收 25%关税。在中国反制之后，欧盟也开始反制。美元相关资产美元、 美债、美股经历恐慌性抛售。之后特朗普宣布对不采取报复行动的国 家实施 90 天关税暂停，对中国加征关税至 125%。隔夜外围市场大涨， 美元指数先跌后涨，美债收益率回落，黄金上涨，美三大股指期货大 涨，道指收涨 7.87%，标普上涨 9.52%，纳指上涨 12.16%，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数上涨 4.5%，离岸人民币汇率回到 7.35 的水平。另外今 日美联储也公布 3 月会议纪要，决策者一致认为美国经济面临着同 时通胀上升和增长放缓的风险，维持利率不变是适当的。特朗普与美 联储的博弈，美联储更有耐心，特朗普的贸易博弈也超出预期。这也 表示管理层在出台政策时候不能完全无视金融市场，而美受到金融市 场制约明显更大。 国内盘面上看，在美对中继续加征 50%关税后，周三 A 股扛住了 极限施压，大盘上涨 1.31%，深成指上涨 1.22%，创业板指上涨 ...

股指早报 对等关税方案落地，外围走衰退逻辑 2025 年 4 月 3 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.3 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日特朗普宣布全球对等关税方案，关税超预期。针 对所有进口商品的普遍性的基准关税加征 10%，将于 4 月 5 日生效。 对等关税则在 4 月 9 日生效，分国别来看，中国 34%、欧盟 20%、越 南 46%、瑞士 31%、日本 24%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、泰国 36%、印尼 32%、英国 10%、菲律宾 17%，柬埔寨征收最高 49%。对等关税为叠加 税率，对中国来说，今年 2 月和 3 月已经加征 20%，此次又是 34%， 那么今年对中国加征税率为 54%。对中国、越南、瑞士等国家加征关 税远超预期。因关税方案宣布是美股收盘后，方案宣布后，金融市场 明显走衰退逻辑，美股期指大跌，纳指和标普 500 的期指分别下跌 4.46%和 3.58%，10 年期美债收益率下跌，美元指数基本震荡，黄金 上涨。距离基准关税生效有 3 天，对等关税生效 6 天，在此期间各国 的的反制博弈等均会对盘面造成影响。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.05%，深成指上涨 0.09%，创业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - March, due to the marginal improvement of the central bank's monetary policy attitude, long - term bonds have significantly recovered. The central bank's monetary policy orientation currently has the greatest influence on bond pricing. Although the exchange - rate pressure has been alleviated, there are still many constraints on short - term policy - level interest rate cuts, but the probability of structural reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is relatively high [1][112]. - The most pessimistic point of the bond market has passed, and it is moving towards positive carry repair. In the short term, the bond market will experience a volatile market, while in the medium - to - long term, there is still room for interest rates to decline [2][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since 2025, the bond market has been continuously adjusting. In the first quarter, the short - end adjusted more significantly under the tight balance of funds. The yield curve showed a bear - steepening characteristic at the beginning and then a bear - flattening characteristic. As of March 27, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 40bp to 1.53%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 12bp to 1.8% [5]. - The bond market trend from December 2024 to now can be divided into four stages: from early to late December 2024, the curve was bull - steepening; from late December 2024 to mid - February 2025, the curve was bear - flattening; from mid - February to mid - March 2025, the curve moved upward as a whole; from mid - March 2025 to now, long - term bonds have recovered [10][12]. 3.2 Monetary Policy Orientation - Since mid - February, the monetary policy has shifted to a tight balance. Since mid - March, the central bank's attitude has marginally loosened but remains cautious. This is reflected in the early convening of the first - quarter monetary policy meeting, the central bank's net investment after the tax period, and the change of MLF to "American tender" [16]. - The central bank's demand for bond - market risk prevention and exchange - rate stability remains unchanged. The change in the statement of the bond market reflects the intention to reduce yield fluctuations, and the exchange - rate stability goal is still clear [17]. - The demand for reducing financing costs has increased, expanding from "enterprises and residents" to "the whole society", which may imply a decline in bond - market yields [25]. 3.3 MLF Adjustment - In terms of operation form, the advance announcement of MLF operation news and the change to "American tender" show the central bank's signal of maintaining stability. In terms of scale, the MLF was over - renewed by 630 billion yuan in March, which is the first over - renewal since August 2024. In terms of price, it is expected to relieve the bank's interest - margin pressure [30]. - The adjustment of MLF is a marginal easing signal, but it may also mean a reduced probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts [31]. 3.4 Funds - The funds have maintained a tight balance. Since early March, the funds rate has become more stable, with DR007 stabilizing at 1.8%, and the cross - quarter funds price seasonally rising to around 2.3%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has dropped below 1.9% [43]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, and a moderately loose funds environment is needed to avoid high issuance costs [48]. 3.5 Bank Liability - Side Pressure - Since the beginning of the year, the lack of bank liabilities has pushed up the funds rate. Large state - owned banks have a long - term problem of deposit shortage, but as of the end of February, the deposit gap has narrowed [59][66]. - Since mid - March, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield has declined across the board. As of March 27, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield of national and joint - stock banks has dropped to 1.9%, about 15bp lower than the mid - March high [67]. 3.6 Fundamental Aspects - The economic data shows strong supply and weak demand. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow down; in terms of consumption, the growth rate of some consumer goods is high, but the overall consumption recovery is limited; in terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment is slightly lower than that of the same period last year; in the real - estate sector, new construction starts remain at a low growth rate [77][78][79]. - Financial and inflation data are weak. The social financing data from January to February shows that the overall volume is acceptable, but the structure needs to be optimized. The government bond financing is an important support, while the real - economy financing demand is declining [86].

谨慎对待交割的兑现 2025 年 3 月 31 日 玻璃月报 报告要点： 上个月的月报中，我们提及不妨关注盘面在低估值区间时需求来临 后的反弹机会。3 月上旬盘面持续低于湖北地区低价仓单价格，位 于偏低估区间，需求复苏后盘面出现反弹，虽然反弹力度不低，但 是持续性力度存疑。 从估值看，若盘面继续向下，将再次进入上游垒库、需求不及预 期、湖北地区低价仓单无法解决的定价。以 3 月份以后的湖北现货 低价 1100 为基准，加仓单费用后基本平水当前的盘面价格。 但是对应到 05 合约，一个即将交割的合约来看，除非接下来几周的 需求表现超预期的强，且带动湖北地区涨价，中游库存迅速去化， 解决掉 05 合约的交割问题。否则不得不面临湖北地区贴水交割的问 题。 随着时间越来越近，应慢慢以交割思维对待 05 合约。那么盘面不再 是平水，对贴水交割的湖北来说，当前盘面仍有升水。1100 的现 货，盘面 60~80 的贴水是合理的。 4 月份需求只有超预期走强才能偏强对待，否则建议要谨慎对待交 割的兑现。 风险点，宏观扰动 创元研究 创元研究黑色组 研究员：陶锐 邮箱： taor@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z00 ...