1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - March, due to the marginal improvement of the central bank's monetary policy attitude, long - term bonds have significantly recovered. The central bank's monetary policy orientation currently has the greatest influence on bond pricing. Although the exchange - rate pressure has been alleviated, there are still many constraints on short - term policy - level interest rate cuts, but the probability of structural reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is relatively high [1][112]. - The most pessimistic point of the bond market has passed, and it is moving towards positive carry repair. In the short term, the bond market will experience a volatile market, while in the medium - to - long term, there is still room for interest rates to decline [2][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since 2025, the bond market has been continuously adjusting. In the first quarter, the short - end adjusted more significantly under the tight balance of funds. The yield curve showed a bear - steepening characteristic at the beginning and then a bear - flattening characteristic. As of March 27, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 40bp to 1.53%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 12bp to 1.8% [5]. - The bond market trend from December 2024 to now can be divided into four stages: from early to late December 2024, the curve was bull - steepening; from late December 2024 to mid - February 2025, the curve was bear - flattening; from mid - February to mid - March 2025, the curve moved upward as a whole; from mid - March 2025 to now, long - term bonds have recovered [10][12]. 3.2 Monetary Policy Orientation - Since mid - February, the monetary policy has shifted to a tight balance. Since mid - March, the central bank's attitude has marginally loosened but remains cautious. This is reflected in the early convening of the first - quarter monetary policy meeting, the central bank's net investment after the tax period, and the change of MLF to "American tender" [16]. - The central bank's demand for bond - market risk prevention and exchange - rate stability remains unchanged. The change in the statement of the bond market reflects the intention to reduce yield fluctuations, and the exchange - rate stability goal is still clear [17]. - The demand for reducing financing costs has increased, expanding from "enterprises and residents" to "the whole society", which may imply a decline in bond - market yields [25]. 3.3 MLF Adjustment - In terms of operation form, the advance announcement of MLF operation news and the change to "American tender" show the central bank's signal of maintaining stability. In terms of scale, the MLF was over - renewed by 630 billion yuan in March, which is the first over - renewal since August 2024. In terms of price, it is expected to relieve the bank's interest - margin pressure [30]. - The adjustment of MLF is a marginal easing signal, but it may also mean a reduced probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts [31]. 3.4 Funds - The funds have maintained a tight balance. Since early March, the funds rate has become more stable, with DR007 stabilizing at 1.8%, and the cross - quarter funds price seasonally rising to around 2.3%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has dropped below 1.9% [43]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, and a moderately loose funds environment is needed to avoid high issuance costs [48]. 3.5 Bank Liability - Side Pressure - Since the beginning of the year, the lack of bank liabilities has pushed up the funds rate. Large state - owned banks have a long - term problem of deposit shortage, but as of the end of February, the deposit gap has narrowed [59][66]. - Since mid - March, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield has declined across the board. As of March 27, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield of national and joint - stock banks has dropped to 1.9%, about 15bp lower than the mid - March high [67]. 3.6 Fundamental Aspects - The economic data shows strong supply and weak demand. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow down; in terms of consumption, the growth rate of some consumer goods is high, but the overall consumption recovery is limited; in terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment is slightly lower than that of the same period last year; in the real - estate sector, new construction starts remain at a low growth rate [77][78][79]. - Financial and inflation data are weak. The social financing data from January to February shows that the overall volume is acceptable, but the structure needs to be optimized. The government bond financing is an important support, while the real - economy financing demand is declining [86].

谨慎对待交割的兑现 2025 年 3 月 31 日 玻璃月报 报告要点： 上个月的月报中，我们提及不妨关注盘面在低估值区间时需求来临 后的反弹机会。3 月上旬盘面持续低于湖北地区低价仓单价格，位 于偏低估区间，需求复苏后盘面出现反弹，虽然反弹力度不低，但 是持续性力度存疑。 从估值看，若盘面继续向下，将再次进入上游垒库、需求不及预 期、湖北地区低价仓单无法解决的定价。以 3 月份以后的湖北现货 低价 1100 为基准，加仓单费用后基本平水当前的盘面价格。 但是对应到 05 合约，一个即将交割的合约来看，除非接下来几周的 需求表现超预期的强，且带动湖北地区涨价，中游库存迅速去化， 解决掉 05 合约的交割问题。否则不得不面临湖北地区贴水交割的问 题。 随着时间越来越近，应慢慢以交割思维对待 05 合约。那么盘面不再 是平水，对贴水交割的湖北来说，当前盘面仍有升水。1100 的现 货，盘面 60~80 的贴水是合理的。 4 月份需求只有超预期走强才能偏强对待，否则建议要谨慎对待交 割的兑现。 风险点，宏观扰动 创元研究 创元研究黑色组 研究员：陶锐 邮箱： taor@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z00 ...

宏观专题报告 对于近期长债大幅波动的思考 2024 年 8 月 11 日 宏观专题报告 报告要点： 7 月末，中国迎来降息潮，主要政策利率迎来一波普降，伴随 7 月 25 日 MLF 超预期降息 20bp 的出现，长债及超长债利率在 7 月末至 8 月 初大幅走低。 极致行情下，10 年国债和 30 年国债收益率分别最低下行至 2.10%和 2.30%附近，创下 2003 年、2005 年以来的历史新低水平。在当前点 位下，历史经验的对于债券收益率绝对值判断的参考性变弱。同时央 行监管的缺位，借券卖债等行为迟迟未发生，导致 10 年期国债收益 率跌破 2.2%，30 年国债收益率跌破 2.4%的"央行合意点位"后，收益 率直线下跌。而短债利率在宽松现实的影响下，保持顺畅下行。截至 8 月 7 日，10 年期国债约 2.13%，30 年期国债约 2.3%附近。央行在 这个点位附近引导大行卖券操作，我们认为可以视作央行对于长债 "合意点位和区间"的下移。 基本面上，二季度 GDP 增速下滑，通胀延续低位，实体融资成本高 企，稳增长压力仍较大，货币政策定调仍将积极，广谱利率仍有下调 空间；资金面上，地方政府债将迎来 ...

Group 1: Economic Trends - From 1993 to 1996, China experienced an investment boom with fixed asset investment growth rates of 50% and 69%[9] - In 1998, GDP growth fell to 7.8%, prompting a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[71] - Between 1998 and 2002, the cumulative issuance of long-term construction bonds reached 660 billion yuan, accounting for 1.2%-1.5% of GDP[73] Group 2: Inflation and Deflation - CPI recorded significant inflation rates of 14.7%, 24.1%, and 17.1% from 1993 to 1995, with a peak near 30% in October 1994[15] - The period from 1998 to 2002 saw deflation, with CPI values of -0.8%, -1.4%, and 0.4%[41] - Since April 2023, inflation levels have remained near zero, similar to the deflationary period of 1998-2002[20] Group 3: Policy Responses - Monetary policy was loosened with a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 700 basis points and a cumulative interest rate cut of 675 basis points from 1998 to 2002[71] - Fiscal policy focused on infrastructure investment through the issuance of long-term bonds, aimed at stabilizing economic growth[73] - The government faced challenges in effectively transmitting monetary policy to the real economy, leading to limited credit expansion despite a loose monetary stance[92] Group 4: External Factors - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a 20.5 percentage point decline in China's export growth rate in 1998, resulting in a mere 0.5% growth[65] - The entry into the WTO in 2001 helped boost external demand, contributing to economic recovery post-deflation[46] - The external environment remains critical in shaping domestic economic conditions, particularly in times of low inflation and weak internal demand[99]

美非农超预期，A 股量化交易监管新进度 2024 年 6 月 10 日 股指周报 股指周报（2024.6.3-2024.6.10） 报告要点： 海外方面，近期公布的美国经济数据和小非农数据均支持美联储 降息预期回升，但周五公布的美国 5 月非农数据整体超预期，使得近 期边际升温的降息预期有所回落。另外上周 G7 中两大经济体，加拿 大央行和欧央行开始宣布降息，使得海外开始进入降息周期。整体来 看上周美联储降息预期处于首先回升，之后回落的状况，但整周因受 公布的美国 PMI、小非农和欧央行降息影响，整体处于美债收益率回 落，美股上涨的状态。本周三美国会公布 CPI 数据，数据会对上周五 美超预期的非农数据进行验证，从而影响到周四的美联储利率决议， 而在周四利率决议中，美联储会给市场传递出更为明确的后续利率路 径，而这也会对近期市场预期的左右摇摆来调整。 国内方面，5 月出口超预期，主因外需走强对我国出口起到拉动， 另外拜登宣布加征关税引发的抢出口对出口也存在影响，从 5 月 PMI 中新订单指数大幅回落中也需要注意后续出口持续走强存在隐忧。本 周将公布 5 月金融数据，虽然房地产销售依旧疲弱，但政府专项债提 速 ...