Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The dovish remarks of Fed officials have boosted market expectations for Fed rate cuts, while Sino-US trade frictions have intensified ahead of the APEC meeting, causing uncertainties in the market. The short - and long - term yields of US Treasuries have declined, gold has risen, and the US stock market has shown a volatile trend. The A - share market is in the process of risk release, with the short - term index expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the market style will be balanced in the short term but is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [2][3][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - Fed Chair Powell said that balance - sheet reduction may near an end in the next few months and that the downside risk of the employment market has increased. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Sino - US trade frictions have intensified due to counter - measures against US subsidiaries and Trump's threat to terminate trade in certain commodities. The Fed's dovish signals have supported US Treasuries, gold, and US stocks, but the US stock market has shown a volatile trend [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined. The decline was due to the incomplete clearing of market risks on Monday. The banking sector provided support, while the STAR Market and ChiNext fell. The Sino - US trade friction has dampened market risk appetite. The banking, coal, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses [3][7]. 1.3 Important News - Fed: Powell believes that the balance - sheet reduction may near an end, the employment market has downside risks, and the Fed's actions need to be carefully balanced. Bowman expects two more rate cuts by the end of this year. Trump will announce a list of projects to be shut down related to the government shutdown on Friday. The US will announce its national security strategy in a few weeks. Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic symposium. China's Ministry of Commerce took counter - measures against five US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Ministry of Transport launched an investigation into the shipping and shipbuilding industries. A document on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon [8][9][13]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The short - term index is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The market style will be balanced in the short term, but it is expected to return to technology growth as the main line near the Fourth Plenary Session [16]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other data of futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, and other data of each contract [18][19]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and other data of major stock indices such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other data of the market [41][42][43]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presents the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, due to continuous data shortages and increased uncertainty about the future, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, gold, and crude oil all declined. After the holiday, the domestic A-share market had a good start, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation platform with increasing volume. However, individual stocks did not form a resonance, and the market had a fragmented breakthrough. A slow bull market is certain at the index level, but it is currently difficult for individual stocks to make money by tracking the market trend. The strategy is to maintain a long position in the Shanghai 50 Index, and the position of the CSI 1000 can be switched to the CSI 500. In terms of industry sectors, only large-cap stocks should be selected instead of small-cap stocks. Attention should be paid to the technology sector, but the focus should not be overly concentrated on computing power. [3][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the non - release of the initial jobless claims on Thursday. Fed officials' remarks indicated a split within the Fed regarding future interest rate cuts. Williams supported further rate cuts due to the slowdown in the labor market, while Barr advocated for caution, and Kashkari agreed with Barr. Overnight, most peripheral assets declined, the U.S. dollar index rose, U.S. Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold fell, the three major U.S. stock indexes declined, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated. Geopolitical changes and the Fed's attitude towards rate cuts remain key points to monitor. [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - After the holiday on Thursday, the market had a good start. The broader market rose 1.32% with a high - opening and oscillating trend, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. The market showed a significant index rebound but a polarization of individual stocks. Benefiting from the rise of overseas gold during the holiday, the cyclical sector rose, and the technology sector was internally divided. The market trend was fragmented. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, steel, coal, and public utilities led the gains, while media, real estate, social services, and automobiles led the losses. There were 3109 rising stocks and 2184 falling stocks in the whole market. Although 100 stocks reached the daily limit, the performance of stocks with consecutive daily limits in the previous trading session was poor, and the profit - making effect was weak. On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials. [2][6] 1.3 Important Information - **Fed Officials' Views**: Williams supported further rate cuts as the labor market may further slow down; Barr believed rate cuts should be cautious as the current interest rate is moderately restrictive; Kashkari basically agreed with Barr. - **U.S. Labor Statistics**: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recalled some employees to compile the CPI report, and it is expected to be released during the government shutdown. - **International Events**: The first - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement officially took effect. Trump said he would go to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza cease - fire agreement. Japan's LDP President Takashi Hayao stated that there was no intention to cause excessive depreciation of the yen. Li Qiang met with Kim Jong - un at the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang. China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October. The Ministry of Commerce included foreign entities such as anti - drone technology companies in the unreliable entity list. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on relevant items with obvious dual - use military and civilian attributes, such as some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, lithium battery and artificial graphite anode material - related items. The Ministry of Commerce announced decisions on export controls of rare - earth - related technologies and overseas rare - earth items. [7][11] 1.4 Today's Strategy - The same as the core view mentioned above. [3][12] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Performance**: Tables show the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other data of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including different contract delivery months such as 2510, 2511, 2512, and 2603. [14] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Tables present the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, and changes in net positions, short - position open interest, and long - position open interest for different futures contracts and their corresponding indexes. [15] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: Tables display the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading amounts, price - to - earnings ratios, and their historical quantiles of major indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as various industry sectors. [37] - **Market Style Impact**: Tables show the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the price changes of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [38][39] - **Valuation and Other Data**: Charts show the valuations of important indexes, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading amount changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading amounts. [41][47] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - US economic data resilience constrains the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and increased geopolitical uncertainties weaken overseas risk assets. The domestic A - share market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. The seesaw effect between technology and banking sectors shows the market's regulatory power. The index is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with resistance at 3900 and support between 3750 - 3800. It is recommended to continue to focus on the structural market of the technology sector and the corresponding Hang Seng Technology Index in Hong Kong [2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - US economic data such as the Q2 real GDP annualized rate final value (3.8%, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.3%), Q2 real personal consumption expenditure rate final value (2.5%, higher than expected 1.7% and the previous value of 1.6%), Q2 core PCE price index annualized rate final value (2.6%, higher than expected and the previous value of 2.5%), and August durable goods orders monthly rate (2.9%, higher than expected - 0.5% and the previous value of - 2.7%) indicate the resilience of the US economy, further suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market moved in the opposite direction, with the US dollar index rising, US Treasury yields up at both short and long ends, gold rising after a decline and closing slightly higher, the three major US stock indexes falling, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58%. Most major indexes rose, but individual stocks generally fell. Traditional sectors dragged down the index, while the technology sector enlivened the market atmosphere. There was an obvious seesaw effect between technology and banking sectors. Among sectors, media, communication, non - ferrous metals, power, and computer led the gains, while textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, household appliances, and transportation led the losses. There were 1474 rising stocks and 3875 falling stocks in the whole market. Google's announcement of an Android computer operating system next year may bring opportunities related to the Android PC trend [2] 3.1.3 Important News - Dallas Fed President Logan called for reforming the interest - rate benchmark, replacing the federal funds rate with the Tri - Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) due to its larger trading volume. Fed officials had different views on inflation, employment, and the balance - sheet reduction. The Supreme Court was warned about market chaos if a Fed official was dismissed. Russia restricted diesel and gasoline exports until the end of the year. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce conducted trade - investment barrier investigations and anti - dumping investigations, and called on the US to cancel unreasonable soybean tariffs. The National Financial Regulatory Administration held a seminar, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association opposed "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6][8][11] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - Overseas factors, including US economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, affect the market. The domestic A - share market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with attention on the technology sector's structural market and the Hang Seng Technology Index [10] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock - index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes and their corresponding futures contracts, such as closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [13][14] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios of major indexes and sectors. Market - style analysis reveals the impact of different styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on major indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There are also charts showing important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market trading volumes, turnover rates, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, and changes in index trading volumes [37][38][47] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - No detailed analysis content is provided, only the titles of relevant charts such as central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are given [52][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Externally, although the Sino-US tariff negotiations have entered a period of easing, the US government's expansion in Europe and pressure on Russia have increased geopolitical uncertainties. There are still significant differences within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility in peripheral assets. [3][10] - Domestically, the current fundamental recovery remains weak, and incremental policies are anticipated. The A-share market is in a technology - driven structural bull market. The CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that efforts will be made to increase the proportion of A-share technology market value, signaling a future structural transformation of the A-share market. Attention should be focused on the technology sector. [3][10] - In the short - term, the recent A - share trend indicates strong support below 3750 - 3800 points for the broader market, but significant pressure at 3900 points. With 4 trading days left until the National Day holiday, it is expected that the stock index will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner before the holiday. [3][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **海外隔夜** - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, higher than the expected 650,000 and the previous value of 664,000, indicating the resilience of the US real estate market. [2][5] - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee said he would not support a rate cut at the next meeting. After Fed Chairman Powell sent an uncertain signal about future monetary policy, the hawkish signals from Fed officials suggest significant differences in internal views, dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut. [2][5] - Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of Russian sanctions are rising, increasing asset volatility. [2][5] - **国内行情回顾** - On Wednesday, the broader market rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, showing a rebound. Compared with the sharp rise of the index a year ago on September 24th, the current rise is slower, mainly a structural market around the technology sector. [2][6] - Sectors such as power equipment, electronics, media, computers, and real estate led the gains, while banks, coal, and communications declined. There were 4457 rising stocks and 852 falling stocks in the entire market. Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming's plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure in three years boosted market sentiment towards the technology sector. [2][6] - **重要资讯** - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle, suggesting that Powell should signal a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut. [7] - FOMC voting member Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns and will not support a rate cut at the next meeting, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that economic growth and labor market indicators have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting a further rate cut. [7] - The US officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1, 2025. [7] - The Kremlin criticized Trump, saying he is trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices. [7] - China aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% - 10% from the peak in the entire economic scope by 2035. [8] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a round - table meeting with some Chinese - funded enterprises in the US. [9] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote service exports and develop digital consumption. [9] - **今日策略** - The external environment has geopolitical uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve has internal differences on rate cuts. The domestic fundamental recovery is weak, and A - shares are in a technology - driven structural bull market. Focus on the technology sector, and expect the stock index to consolidate in a volatile manner before the National Day holiday. [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - **期货市场表现** - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. [12] - **期货成交与持仓** - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are presented, as well as data on the positions of the top 20 member institutions. [13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - **现货市场表现** - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading turnover, and price - to - earnings ratios of various stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. [35] - **市场风格对指数涨跌影响** - Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of weight, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [36][37] - **估值情况** - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors. [39][42] - **其他市场指标** - Includes data on market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, changes in index trading turnover, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading turnover. [44][45][46] 3.4流动性跟踪 - **央行公开市场操作** - Displays data on currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection in the central bank's open - market operations. [49][50] - **Shibor利率水平** - Shows the levels of SHIBOR overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates. [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term stock index is likely to continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the technology, finance, and cyclical sectors in terms of sectors, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures. Position control is necessary. [4][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Overnight - US economic data in September showed a marginal decline but remained resilient. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25BP, but the subsequent monetary policy path is unclear, weakening the recent rate - cut logic. Geopolitical uncertainty has increased. Overnight asset prices showed different trends, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields dropping, gold hitting a new high, US stocks falling, and the VIX volatility rising. [2][6] Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21%. The market showed a wide - range volatile trend. The banking sector's rise disrupted the market rhythm, while the large - finance sector played a significant role in regulating the index. The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3800 points, and the market remained in a consolidation phase. [3][7] Important Information - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Powell's remarks suggest that interest rates are still tight, which may open the door for further rate cuts. Trump has made a series of statements on international relations and trade policies, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. There have also been diplomatic exchanges between China and the US, and China has implemented some domestic policies. [8][9] Today's Strategy - The large changes in the US foreign policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and the conflict among Fed officials' views on subsequent rate cuts will increase the volatility of overseas assets. The domestic market still has expectations for policies on the anniversary of 924. The short - term stock index is likely to continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The performance of various stock index futures contracts, including the closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, basis, and other indicators, is provided. The trading volume, turnover, and open interest of different contracts and their changes are also presented. [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - The performance of the spot market shows that different indexes have different trends. The large - finance sector has an important impact on the market. The performance of different sectors varies, with some rising and some falling. Market style also has different impacts on different indexes. [3][37] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate level are presented to reflect the market's liquidity situation. [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will boost subsequent risk assets and equity markets. A-shares rebounded on Wednesday, with the Shenzhen market performing significantly stronger than the broader market, and a clear structural market in technology stocks. In the short term, stock index futures may seek to break through the upper limit of the trading range. The strategy remains unchanged, focusing on technology growth and large financial sectors, such as computing power and robotics in specific sectors, and maintaining a long position in the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overseas Market**: In August, the annualized total of new housing starts in the US was 1.307 million units, lower than the expected 1.365 million and the previous value of 1.429 million. The total number of building permits was 1.312 million units, lower than the expected 1.37 million and the previous value of 1.362 million, indicating a weakening of the US real estate market. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at its September meeting, and the market's expectation for the number of subsequent interest rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 2. The Fed's statement showed a dovish stance, but Powell's speech was hawkish, leading to significant fluctuations in overnight assets [2][7]. - **Domestic Market**: On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.37%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The market showed a pattern of index rebound but stock differentiation. Traditional heavy - weight stocks pressured the index, while technology stocks supported the market, with a clear structural market in technology stocks. Among sectors, power equipment, automobiles, household appliances, coal, and machinery had the highest gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, commerce and retail, social services, food and beverages, and textile and apparel had the largest losses [3][8]. 3.2 Important News - **Federal Reserve Meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with only Milan opposing and supporting a 50 - basis - point cut. Powell said the labor market risk was skewed downward, and this rate cut could be seen as a risk - management measure. The median of the dot - plot implied a total of 3 interest rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and 1 cut next year. Milan hoped for a total of 150 basis points of cuts this year. Powell also implicitly expressed concerns about stagflation [9][10]. - **Other News**: The EU announced sanctions against Israel; the US Treasury Secretary's property issue was similar to the reason for Cook's removal; the Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%; the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will promote strategic and specialized restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises; from January to August, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue increased by 81.7% year - on - year, and the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year; Li Jiachao aims to make Hong Kong an international gold trading market; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on standards for intelligent connected vehicle combined driving assistance [11][12]. 3.3 Today's Strategy - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there will be 2 more cuts in the second half of the year. Although overnight asset prices fluctuated significantly due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the preventive interest rate cut will boost the subsequent equity market. The strategy remains unchanged, focusing on technology growth and large financial sectors, such as computing power and robotics in specific sectors, and maintaining a long position in the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [2][5][13]. 3.4 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, showing the performance of different contracts on a specific day [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume, trading volume changes, turnover, turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are provided, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 20 member institutions [16]. 3.5 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Index Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volume, price - to - earnings ratios, and other indicators of major market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided [39]. - **Sector Performance**: The performance of various sectors, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, finance, and public utilities sectors, is presented, including price changes, trading volume, and price - to - earnings ratios [39]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on major market indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 is analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [40][41]. 3.6 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Operations**: Information on the central bank's open - market operations, including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection, is presented [52][53]. - **Shibor Rates**: The levels of Shibor rates for different tenors (overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month) are shown [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Supported by biodiesel policies, oils and fats are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. In the short term, the market will return to a volatile trend. For oils and fats to rise again, new drivers are needed, specifically problems on the supply side; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weak. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [92]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of three major oils have risen alternately. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has fluctuated, affected by various factors such as USDA's yield and area adjustments, tariff policies, crude oil prices, and biodiesel policies [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - **USDA's Adjustment of U.S. Soybean Planting Area**: USDA unexpectedly and significantly reduced the estimated U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean balance sheet shows that the 2025 - 08 data has decreased compared to previous periods, and there is a possibility of further tightening of the balance sheet and lower inventories [9]. - **Pro Farmer Field Inspection Results**: The number of soybean pods in major producing states in 2025 shows a mixed trend compared to 2024, with some states having an increase and others a decrease. The estimated yield per acre of 53.6 bushels provides room for a downward adjustment [10]. - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: As of the week ending August 24, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought [20]. - **SRE Announcement**: On August 22, EPA announced the handling of 175 small refinery exemption (SRE) applications from 38 small refineries in the 2016 - 2024 compliance years. It is expected not to affect the demand for biofuels [22]. - **South American Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.2573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. Argentina adjusted its soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal export tariffs [31][32]. - **Domestic Situation in China**: China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons. The soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, and soybean oil was expected to continue to accumulate inventory. In late August, China exported soybean oil again, with an expected monthly average export volume of 3 - 50,000 tons from September to December [37][40]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Malaysian Inventory and Production**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was slightly lower than expected, exports met expectations, and inventory was lower than expected. From August 1 - 25, 2025, production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 10.9%. Malaysia plans to replant palm trees [50]. - **Indonesian Production and Policy**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.96% month - on - month, contrary to rumors. The government's crackdown on illegal palm plantations may affect future production. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 policy in 2026, but it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term [53][58]. - **Indian Imports**: India imported palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in July. It is rumored that India purchased palm oil from Latin America and imported rapeseed oil from the UAE. The Indian government may reduce the import tariff on rapeseed oil [66]. - **Chinese Imports and Inventory**: China's palm oil imports in July were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.57%. With the decline in imports, inventory is expected to peak and decline [76]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Canadian Rapeseed Production**: Canada's estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year, as the increase in yield per unit offsets the decline in area [86]. - **Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling**: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations into Canadian rapeseed, setting a 75.8% deposit ratio. This will increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed and tighten domestic rapeseed supply. China will purchase Australian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed imports will continue to tighten before the end of this year, accelerating the pace of rapeseed oil inventory reduction [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's actions regarding the Fed have short - and long - term impacts on the capital market. If he succeeds, it may lead to a triple - kill situation in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. The market is currently observing the event's development [1][2][4] - In the domestic A - share market, the Tuesday market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The large - financial weights dragged down the market, and although hot topics were active, they did not form a sector effect. The market is in a normal volatile and momentum - building stage. The capital bull market trend is hard to end easily. In the short term, if the market cannot break through 3900 points and as September 3 approaches, there may be fluctuations, with an estimated range of 3700 - 3750. Currently, it is advisable to avoid micro - cap stocks and focus on core blue - chip dividends that may have supplementary gains [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - US consumer confidence index in August was 97.4, higher than the expected 96.2 but lower than the previous value of 98.7. The annual rate of the unadjusted housing price index of 20 major US cities in June was 2.1%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.79%, indicating a marginal slowdown in US consumption and real estate [1][4] - Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook and the government's consideration of influencing local Fed plans have different impacts on the overnight market. In the long term, it affects the Fed's independence; in the short term, it raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, a steeper US bond yield curve, a rise in gold prices, a collective rise in the three major US stock indexes, an increase in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, and an appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate [1][4] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, falling 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.76%. The market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. The large - financial weights dragged down the market, and hot topics were active but did not form a sector effect. The consumer electronics sector was unevenly distributed, and the market was more of independent trends of strong individual stocks [2][5] - In terms of sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, beauty care, basic chemicals, and media led the gains, while medicine and biology, non - bank finance, steel, and military industries led the losses. There were 2802 rising stocks and 2469 falling stocks in the whole market. The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", which is beneficial to the growth of the technology sector [2][5] 3.1.3 Important Information - Fed - related: Trump's government is considering influencing local Fed plans and reviewing the selection method of local Fed presidents. Cook's lawyer has sought a judicial ruling on the dismissal, and both the Fed and Trump said they will follow the court's decision. Trump said he has a replacement in mind and may transfer Milan to another long - term position at the Fed. Former White House economic advisor Brainard said Trump's action is an unprecedented attack on the Fed, which may lead to rising inflation and long - term interest rates, and Barkin predicted a mild adjustment of interest rates [6] - Tariff - war - related: Trump said furniture tariffs will be introduced soon and will be very high, and will implement export restrictions and tariff measures against foreign digital taxes. The US has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from 19% tariffs. German media reported that Trump called Modi at least four times recently but was rejected each time [7][8][9] - Other: The US Secretary of Commerce is studying potential equity investment opportunities in the defense and other industries. Trump said he may visit China this year or as soon as possible, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to questions about the meeting between Chinese and US officials. Trump plans to impose about 200% tariffs on Chinese rare - earth magnets, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", and the oil price dropped for the seventh time this year, with about 7 yuan less to fill a tank [9][10][11] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - Overseas, the game between Trump and the Fed has short - and long - term impacts on the capital market, and the market is observing. If Trump succeeds, it may lead to a triple - kill situation in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. In the domestic A - share market, the Tuesday market is in a normal volatile and momentum - building stage. The capital bull market trend is hard to end easily. In the short term, if the market cannot break through 3900 points and as September 3 approaches, there may be fluctuations, with an estimated range of 3700 - 3750. Currently, it is advisable to avoid micro - cap stocks and focus on core blue - chip dividends that may have supplementary gains [12] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [14][15] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volume, and other data of various indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of different sectors [36] - It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, and provides valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][38][39] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report provides information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance, as well as different - term Shibor interest rates [51][52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-shares showed an independent market trend, with Monday's sharp rise driven more by sentiment. The view of a long-term slow bull market remains unchanged. In the short term, if the market fails to break through 3900 points, it may adjust, with an expected adjustment range of 3700 - 3750. It is advisable to avoid micro-cap stocks in late August, and focus on core blue-chip dividends such as dual innovation leaders and securities firms [2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The annualized total of new home sales in the US in July was 652,000 units, higher than the expected 630,000 but lower than the previous value of 656,000, indicating the resilience of the US real estate market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have declined, with the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September dropping from 92% after Powell's speech to 82%. The decline in rate cut expectations affected the overnight capital market, with the US dollar index rising and other assets falling. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [1][5]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Monday, the broader market rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3%, with market trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The rise of Cambricon drove the chip sector, and technology was the main market theme. Communication, non-ferrous metals, real estate, and steel led the gains, while beauty care, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and light manufacturing led the losses. There were 3349 rising stocks and 1896 falling stocks in the entire market. Shanghai's new real estate policies significantly boosted the sentiment of the real estate sector and brought structural opportunities [2][6]. 1.3 Important News - Trump plans to cut drug prices by 1400% - 1500% and impose tariffs on drugs; he hopes to meet with Kim Jong-un this year; Intel believes that government shareholding poses a risk to its business, and the government shareholding may increase to 15%, while Trump will continue to make similar deals. The Fed's Logan said there is still room to reduce bank system reserves, and the standing repo facility may be reopened in September. The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand, and the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market. Shanghai optimized real estate policies and mortgage rate pricing mechanisms [7][9][10]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The Fed's rate cut expectations affect the overnight capital market, while A - shares have an independent trend. Currently, A - shares are driven by policies and liquidity. In the short term, if the market fails to break through 3900 points, it may adjust, with an expected adjustment range of 3700 - 3750. Avoid micro - cap stocks in late August and focus on core blue - chip dividends [11]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [13][14]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Information on the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and trading volumes of major indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index, as well as various sectors, is provided. The impact of market styles on major indices and the valuation of important indices and Shenwan sectors are also analyzed [32][33][34]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Data on the central bank's open market operations and SHIBOR interest rates are presented to reflect market liquidity [46][47][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: Last week, US economic data rebounded, with both the August services PMI and manufacturing PMI exceeding expectations, and the manufacturing PMI rising above the boom - bust line. Powell signaled a neutral - dovish stance at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, suggesting a possible policy adjustment and hinting at a rate cut. However, the long - term inflation target remains at 2%. The market's expectation of a rate cut this year has increased, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, a fall in US Treasury yields, a rise in gold prices, and an increase in the Dow and S&P, while the Nasdaq slightly declined. Attention should be paid to the July PCE data and economic data to be released this week, as an economic recovery may increase the expectation of no rate cut in September [1]. - Domestic: Despite the July economic data (industrial added value, retail sales, and fixed - asset investment) falling short of expectations, the A - share market rebounded last week, reaching a new high since September 24, 2024. The market's expectation of increased economic policies supported the A - share market. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the A - share market has the basis for a slow - bull market. In the short term, if the market can break through the 3900 - point pressure level, it may continue to rise to 4000 points; otherwise, there may be short - term changes. The strategy is to focus on technology growth stocks and maintain long positions in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents various charts showing the basis of different contracts (such as CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500) and their inter - period spreads, including the basis of each contract and the spreads between the current month and the next month, the current month and the current quarter, and the next month and the current quarter [5][6][12]. 3.2 Spot Market Tracking - Charts display important index valuations (including Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc.), Shenwan valuations, market weekly average trading volume, market weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect data, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchase amounts and their proportions in A - share trading volume [17][19][21]. 3.3 Liquidity Tracking - Charts show central bank open - market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and Shibor interest rate levels [28][29][30]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Chuangyuan Research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, professional experiences, and relevant qualifications in different research groups such as macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural and sideline products [33][34].