1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight external asset performance has a neutral impact. For domestic A - shares, except for the Shanghai 50 and the broader market, other indices basically showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with low trading volume. Today is the index futures delivery day, and the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates. Information and market operation conditions indicate that the A - share market will show divergence today. The broader market is under pressure around 3900 and supported around 3800. The index rebound cannot drive individual stocks, and the short - term trend will remain volatile. The report is still optimistic about the cross - year market approaching late December and suggests increasing positions after the market situation becomes clear [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8% [5]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said the Fed still has a lot of room to cut interest rates [6]. - Fed's Goolsbee said the November inflation data was good, but he was uneasy about pre - emptive rate cuts. The terminal interest rate will be much lower than the current level [6]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2% unchanged, in line with market expectations, and it was the fourth consecutive meeting to hold rates. ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle may have ended [6]. - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Governor Bailey said the pace of rate cuts will slow down [6]. - The State Council General Office issued an opinion on cracking down on tobacco - related illegal activities across the whole chain [7]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with the foreign ministers of Cambodia and Thailand, emphasizing the need to make a decision, stop the fire as soon as possible, stop losses in time, and rebuild mutual trust [7]. - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council responded to US arms sales to Taiwan, stating that if "Taiwan independence" separatist forces dare to cross the red line, China will strike back. The Foreign Ministry responded to the US $1.1 billion arms sales to Taiwan, saying that using Taiwan to contain China will never succeed [7]. - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the establishment meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and held a symposium of experts on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce approved some general export license applications for rare earths [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition to promote the formation of a market order with high - quality products at reasonable prices and healthy competition [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen capacity regulation in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The Shanghai 50 index rose 0.23%. Among its futures contracts, IH2512 rose 0.26%, IH2601 rose 0.28%, IH2603 rose 0.18%, and IH2606 rose 0.20%. The CSI 300 index fell 0.59%. Its futures contracts IF2512 fell 0.61%, IF2601 fell 0.57%, IF2603 fell 0.60%, and IF2606 fell 0.57%. The CSI 500 index fell 0.52%. Its futures contracts IC2512 fell 0.64%, IC2601 fell 0.53%, IC2603 fell 0.32%, and IC2606 fell 0.35%. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.22%. Its futures contracts IM2512 fell 0.27%, IM2601 fell 0.21%, IM2603 fell 0.11%, and IM2606 fell 0.12% [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of various futures contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 futures was 58,589, a decrease of 16,253; the open interest decreased by 8,002. Each contract also had corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and other aspects [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The Wind All - A index fell 0.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. Among sectors, banks, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and light manufacturing led the gains, while power equipment, communications, electronics, and automobiles led the losses [37]. - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) had different impacts on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [38][39]. - **Valuation and Other Indicators**: The report also presented the valuation, trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators of important indices and sectors, as well as the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets and the change in index trading volume [37][40][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations (including money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [53][54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Report's Core View - Overseas data shows a weakening in the US labor market and consumption, with increased market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January but no change to the overall view of no rate cut. Market trends after the data release indicate internal uncertainties, and there is a need to watch for subsequent risks. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated, suggesting an increase in the risk - aversion attribute of funds [2]. - On the domestic market, the A - share market fell on Tuesday, with major indices experiencing a second bottom - testing. The decline was mainly due to a long - term sideways movement, intensified internal capital movement, weak economic data, and a lack of incremental funds. The market's correction is making room for the upcoming Spring Festival market. There may be a resistive rebound around 3800 points in the short term, and the analyst still favors the cross - year market as of late December, suggesting increasing positions after the market's downward adjustment is confirmed [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important资讯 - US employment data: The US added 64,000 seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in November, higher than expected. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000, worse than the expected 25,000 decline. The US unemployment rate in November reached 4.6%, a four - year high [5]. - Fed - related news: There are reports that Waller will be interviewed by Trump on Wednesday, and the probability of him being a candidate for Fed Chair has risen to 15%. The US Treasury Secretary believes that Warsh and Hassett are capable of leading the Fed, and the selection of the Fed Chair is expected to be announced in early January. Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, said there is still much room for rate cuts in case of positive supply - side shocks [5]. - Other international news: Trump will deliver a national speech during prime time to address a decline in polls and may announce new year policies. The US threatens to retaliate against the EU's digital service tax plan and may initiate a 301 investigation [6][7]. - Domestic policy news: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made from both supply and demand sides to boost consumption. The NDRC aims to enhance residents' consumption willingness and strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. The Social Security Fund Council will support the integration of technological and industrial innovation. The Ministry of Commerce will impose anti - dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the EU starting December 17, 2025 [7]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures market performance**: All major index futures contracts, including those for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, showed declines on the day. For example, the Shanghai 50 index fell 1.08%, and its corresponding futures contracts (IH2512, IH2601, etc.) also declined, with the decline rates ranging from 1.09% to 1.17% [9]. - **Futures trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume and open interest of major index futures contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 index futures was 70,206 lots, an increase of 10,967 lots. The open interest of the CSI 300 index futures increased by 24,310 lots [10]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot market performance**: Major stock indices in the A - share market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. In terms of sectors, commercial aerospace, digital currency, and consumption remained active, but they could not support the overall index. Sectors such as commerce and retail, beauty care, and social services rose, while communication, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and media led the decline [3][36]. - **Market style influence**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indices. For example, the cyclical style had a significant negative impact on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [37][38]. - **Valuation and trading volume**: The document presents data on the valuation of major indices and sectors, as well as market trading volume and turnover rate. For example, the current valuations and historical quantiles of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., are shown [40][42]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central bank operations and interest rates**: The document shows data on the central bank's open - market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection. It also presents the Shibor interest rate levels [51][52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and unexpected announcement of short - bond purchases have ignited the enthusiasm for long - liquidity in the overseas market, which is beneficial to risk assets [2]. - The domestic A - share market showed certain resilience yesterday, and in the short term, it will be repaired to some extent due to the overnight overseas influence. The market will maintain a volatile tone in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to layout for the spring market next year during the volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The Fed's December interest rate decision: It will cut interest rates by 25 basis points with 3 dissenting votes, buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, and the median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut in each of the next two years. Powell said that the economy's development could be observed, no one expected an interest rate hike, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The bond - buying scale will remain high in the coming months [4]. - Trump criticized Powell after the Fed's interest rate cut, saying the cut was too small and could be doubled, and the rate should be the lowest globally [4]. - Trump stated that the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela, claiming the move was legal [5]. - Meta is fully shifting to a closed - source model and integrating third - party models such as Alibaba's Qwen during training [5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that the special treasury bonds due in 2025 will be rolled over at the same amount without increasing the fiscal deficit [6]. - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2025 [7]. - Foreign media reported that China is considering restricting access to NVIDIA's H200 chips, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract to 15%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 17% from the close of trading on December 12, 2025 [8]. - The China Coast Guard vessel formation patrolled in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands on December 10 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index showed various closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change ratios, with different basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates. The contract delivery dates and remaining times also vary [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly net positions, and net position changes of different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and related changes of all contracts are also provided [12]. - **Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, including the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, which reflect the historical data trends of these indicators [13][18][22] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and other data of various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are presented. The data of different industries are also included, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and other sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions is analyzed [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations of important indices and Shenwan industries, as well as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [39][42][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Charts**: There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which reflect the historical data trends of these liquidity - related indicators [52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are digesting the Fed's hawkish rate - cut expectations, which have put some pressure on US Treasuries and US stocks. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. [2][4] - Although the domestic A - shares are supported by the positive news of the entry of medium - and long - term funds such as insurance funds, they still face the year - end settlement effect in the short term, with limited capital inflows. And due to the weakness of the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of A - shares is limited. [4] - The A - share market has filled the upper gap on the 21st. Given the signs of liquidity shortage, the stock index may retrace to around the 20 - week moving average of 3847 in the short term, and the market is in a consolidating phase to wait for opportunities. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Important News - Trump mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on some over - priced goods and that an immediate rate cut would be a "litmus test" for choosing a new Fed chairman. He also started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman position this week, with Hassett leading. There was also talk about the possibility of Hassett having a shortened term. [6] - Hassett believes the Fed has sufficient room for significant rate cuts and will make interest - rate decisions based on his judgment. [7] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upside risk of inflation, and the market expects the rate - cut cycle may have ended. [7] - Zelensky refused to "cede territory", will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th, and for the first time showed willingness to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. [7] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development respectively. [7] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as delays in China's rare - earth exports to Japan and the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. [8][9] - Moore Threads is about to release a new generation of GPU architecture. [10] - A long - awaited polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform in the industry has been officially established. [10] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: All major stock - index futures contracts showed declines. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures contracts IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 fell by 0.65%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.67% respectively. [12] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures decreased by 21,031 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,493 lots. [13] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The overall market showed a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.61%. The trading volume of the market decreased, and most stocks fell. [3][35] - **Industry Performance**: Communication, electronics, commerce and retail, and military industry sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals, steel, real estate, coal, and construction decoration sectors led the decline. [3] - **Influence of Market Styles on Indexes**: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the cyclical style had a negative daily contribution to the SSE 50 index, while the growth style had a positive daily contribution. [36][37] - **Valuation and Related Indicators**: The report presented the current valuations, historical quantiles, trading volumes, and turnovers of major indexes and industries, providing a reference for market evaluation. [39][43] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate levels, which are important indicators for observing market liquidity. [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - From the balance sheet perspective, the polysilicon market maintains a wide - balance pattern. The price support mainly comes from anti - involution expectations and price - holding by major enterprises. However, the inclusion of East Hope in the delivery list by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may impact the pricing power of the industrial alliance. Next week's market will focus on the transfer of polysilicon pricing power. The contradiction between insufficient domestic demand and unexpected production cuts will strengthen market doubts about platform companies. The root cause lies in the long - term split pattern where high profits in the upstream lead to increased production and inventory accumulation, while low profits in the downstream result in production cuts and low inventory, without substantial improvement in inventory. High industry inventory may not have a substantial short - term impact, but if it forms a negative feedback and suppresses corporate cash flow, enterprises will have to passively reduce inventory and transfer profits to the downstream to achieve industrial chain profit balance. Investors should pay attention to enterprise warehouse receipt quotes. If the whole industry holds prices, the price difference between near - and far - month contracts will still show a BACK structure due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts. They also need to be aware of the increased volatility risk caused by the current polysilicon game [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Data Overview - As of December 5th, the 99 - silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change; the 553 silicon powder was quoted at 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.5%. The trichlorosilane price was 3,425 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.5%. The N - type granular silicon was quoted at 50 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 1.0%; the N - type re - feeding material was quoted at 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The N - type silicon price index was 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily or weekly change. The electronic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 27.9 US dollars/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.2%; the overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was quoted at 16.05 US dollars/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.6% [6] - As of December 5th, the weekly polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, with a weekly increase of 7.5% [7] - As of December 5th, the domestic polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 3.6%. The N - type 182 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.15 yuan/piece, with a weekly decrease of 2.5%; the N - type 210 silicon wafer (130μm) was quoted at 1.48 yuan/piece, with a daily decrease of 1.3% and a weekly decrease of 3.3%. As of July 21st, the single - crystal silicon wafer G12 - 210 was quoted at 1.03 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change; the single - crystal silicon wafer M10 - 182 was quoted at 1.58 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [8] - As of December 5th, the weekly silicon wafer production was 11.95GW, with a weekly decrease of 0.6% [9] - As of December 5th, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.3GW, with a weekly increase of 9.2%. The single - crystal TOPcon:M10 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.7%; the single - crystal TOPcon:G12 battery was quoted at 0.283 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change. The TOPcon - 182 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.664 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.3%; the TOPcon - 210 (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.68 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.6%; the TOPcon - 210R (distributed) battery was quoted at 0.668 yuan/watt, with a weekly decrease of 0.4%; the N - type - 182 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.67 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change; the N - type - 210 (centralized) battery was quoted at 0.69 yuan/watt, with no daily or weekly change [10] 3.2 Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Prices in the Industrial Chain - The report presents price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [12] 3.2.2 Prices of Other Upstream and Downstream Materials - The report shows price trends of photovoltaic adhesive films, high - purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles, etc. through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14] 3.3 Key Data Tracking 3.3.1 Upstream and Downstream Data - The report presents data on weekly polysilicon production, polysilicon inventory, monthly photovoltaic battery production (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic battery inventory (silicon consumption), weekly photovoltaic component inventory (silicon consumption), and inventory changes through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [20] 3.3.2 Export and Industry Profit Levels - The report shows data on weekly photovoltaic battery inventory changes, monthly photovoltaic component production (silicon consumption), component exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), battery exports (equivalent polysilicon consumption), and profit levels of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components through charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [24] 3.3.5 Weekly Key Data - As of November 30th, the polysilicon inventory was 29.1 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.00 tons and a weekly growth rate of 4%; the silicon wafer inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 4.05 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.34 tons and a weekly growth rate of 9%; the battery cell inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 1.53 tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.88 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 37%; the component inventory (equivalent polysilicon inventory) was 6.22 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.06 tons and a weekly growth rate of 1% [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, overseas risk aversion increased, and all assets declined, which had a negative impact on A-shares. However, on Thursday, domestic A-shares rallied towards the upper limit of a new platform driven by the new energy sector. In the absence of new catalysts, it is advisable to consider selling at the upper limit of the new platform. The report maintains the view that the broader market will oscillate within the range of 3900 - 4050, and the long-term slow bull trend remains unchanged [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history, which caused a loss of $1.5 trillion. The government may face another shutdown when the bill expires on January 30, 2026. The two parties reached a compromise where the Republicans promised to vote separately on the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by the second week of December 2025 [2][5]. - Fed officials continued to send hawkish signals, causing the market to realize that the Fed would not compromise with the Trump administration. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in December has dropped to 51.6%. After the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of a series of US economic data [2]. - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the 20th G20 Leaders' Summit and pay an official visit to Zambia [5]. - China has completed the first phase of 6G technology trials [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the broader market opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.55%. The leading sectors were in Shenzhen, especially the ChiNext, with lithium batteries, energy storage, and the Taiwan Strait concept leading the gains. In terms of sectors, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials led the gains, while public utilities, communications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and banks led the losses [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [9][10]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indices and sectors, such as the Wind All A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and various industry sectors [35]. - **Market Style Impact**: Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [36][37]. - **Valuation Analysis**: Provides valuation data and historical quantiles of important indices and Shenwan sectors [39][43]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts on central bank open market operations, Shibor interest rates, and other indicators to track market liquidity [51][52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the White House stated that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released. Before the lack of economic data, the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time. Overnight, the risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market rebounded slightly, with the US dollar index basically flat, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rising slightly, gold rising, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up, the Nasdaq closing down, the S&P 500 closing flat, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciating slightly. Attention should be paid to the final result of the US government's temporary appropriation bill [1]. - Domestically, on Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.39%. The market showed a volatile adjustment trend. In the morning, banks and oil stocks pulled up the index, but individual stocks declined. In the afternoon, although the index rebounded, most individual stocks did not follow, showing an obvious atmosphere of following the decline but not the rise. The sectors of household appliances, textile and apparel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and medicine and biology led the gains, while power equipment, machinery and equipment, computers, military industry, and automobiles led the losses. There were 1,756 rising stocks and 3,561 falling stocks in the whole market. The rumor about the photovoltaic industry was later refuted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association. Overall, the overnight US stock market trend indicates that market funds tend to be defensive, which has a neutral impact on A - shares. The Shanghai Composite Index is stronger at the broad - based index level, while others are weaker. The market divergence is not significant yet. The view remains unchanged, expecting the broader market to maintain a volatile tone in the range of 3,900 - 4,050, with a long - term slow - bull trend unchanged, and it may stay at this level for a long time in the short term. The strategy remains a dumbbell strategy, being long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown at 8:00 on the 13th, Beijing time [4]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral debate on Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook on January 21 next year [4]. - The White House said that the October non - farm and inflation data may never be released [5]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement in February next year and re - emphasized his hawkish stance a few hours later. The market expects a dovish successor under Trump [5]. - Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins said the Fed is likely to keep interest rates at the current level for some time. The labor market has not deteriorated, and it is necessary to ensure that inflation can sustainably return to 2% before cutting rates [5]. - Anthropic will invest $50 billion in building a data center in the US [6]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the head of the National Committee on US - China Relations, stating that China and the US should jointly maintain and implement the important consensus and outcomes of the leaders' meetings and promote the stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China will continue to extend the visa - free policy for Spain to facilitate personnel exchanges [7]. - The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy [8]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the online rumors are all false information [9]. 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - For the Shanghai 50 Index, different contracts (IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606) showed different closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change rates. For example, IH2511 had a closing price of 3,044, a settlement price of 3,046.8, a price increase of 13.2, and a price increase rate of 0.32% [11]. - Similar data are provided for the CSI 300 Index (IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, IF2606), CSI 500 Index (IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, IC2606), and CSI 1000 Index (IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, IM2606) [11]. Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume, trading volume change, trading value, trading value change, open interest, open interest change, weekly position increase, net position, and changes in long and short positions of different contracts of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 was 54,075, with a change of 3,933, and the trading value was 493 billion yuan, with a change of 37 billion yuan [12]. 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., showed different current points, daily price change rates, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and their changes. For example, the Wind All - A Index was at 6,354, with a daily decline of 0.38%, and its trading value was 19,648 billion yuan, a decrease of 490.72 billion yuan [35]. - Different sectors also had different performance, such as the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising by 0.84%, and the power equipment sector falling by 2.10% [35]. Market Style Impact on Index Fluctuations - Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, stability) had different impacts on the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual fluctuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. For example, in the Shanghai 50 Index, the cyclical style had a daily contribution of - 0.12% [36]. Index Valuation - The current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., are shown. For example, the price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.68, with a historical percentile of 94.46% [39]. - The valuations and historical percentile rankings of Shenwan sectors are also presented [42]. Other Market Indicators - Market indicators such as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and changes in index trading values are provided through graphs [44]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and SHIBOR interest rates (overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month) are presented through graphs [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the non - official employment data in the US indicated a weakening job market, but Fed officials sent hawkish signals, leading the market to trade on the expectation of a US economic recession, with overnight risk assets falling [1][2]. - In the domestic A - share market, with a lack of significant positive news, the return of the technology sector drove the index back to 4000. The long - term technology mainline remains unchanged. The index is expected to fluctuate between 3900 - 4050, and may decline on Friday due to external market drag. The strategy is to maintain a dumbbell approach, being long on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500. It's not advisable to overly bet on the technology sector in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - US private data showed that in October, non - farm employment decreased by 9100, Challenger job cuts increased by 175% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate was about 4.36%, a four - year high [4]. - Fed officials were cautious. Some opposed further rate cuts, while others expected a December rate cut. The estimated neutral interest rate in the US was around 1%. AI might impact certain industries' recruitment [4]. - Trump stated no new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case, advocated for low - cost drug purchases, and planned a possible visit to India next year [4]. - The US House Speaker was less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. China aimed to build Hainan Free Trade Port and issued the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations" [4][5][6]. - A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform was being planned, and the Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Anshi Semiconductor, rare earths, and the China - EU Investment Agreement, and held a round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises [6][7][8]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Performance**: All major index futures contracts showed gains. For example, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.22%, and its futures contracts IH2511, IH2512, etc., also had varying degrees of increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Overall trading volume and open interest decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 futures decreased by 1,639 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,948 lots [11]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Index Performance**: Major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% to 4,008, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.84% [2][35]. - **Sector Performance**: Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and communication led the gains, while media, social services, and beauty care led the losses [2]. - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles had different impacts on major indexes. For example, the cyclical style had a significant positive impact on the CSI 500 index [36][37]. - **Valuation**: The valuations of major indexes and sectors were at different levels. For example, the current PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.53, with a historical percentile of 92.56% [35]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Operations and Interest Rates**: The document presented data on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates, but specific numerical trends were not clearly described in text [52][53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The current soybean meal price is close to the industry cost, with significant long - short divergence. The market focuses on the Sino - US negotiation results. The negotiation progresses smoothly, and there is a possibility of a US soybean purchase agreement. The soybean meal may weaken again due to the bearish sentiment [2][98] - Medium - term: The market agrees that China's soybean supply is sufficient this year. The 01 contract may be anchored to the lowest cost valuation. The only bullish factors for the 01 contract are the uncertain weather in the South American sowing season and the unpromoted 12 - month ship purchases. If US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year, the 03 contract will decline following the 01 contract [2][98] - Operation suggestion: Be cautious about bottom - fishing before the South American weather situation is clear. It is recommended to participate in the 1 - 5 reverse spread based on the logic of sufficient soybean supply in China before the end of the year [2][98] Summary Based on the Table of Contents I. Market Review - The fluctuation of the domestic soybean meal contract 01 has increased this week. After breaking through the support level and then strongly rebounding, the long - short game is intense. The market expects the Sino - US negotiation results to provide directional guidance. The CBOT US soybean main contract has strongly rebounded by more than 50 cents per bushel to around 1060 cents due to the optimistic expectation of the Sino - US negotiation and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US [5] II. Sino - US Expected to Reach an Agreement 2.1 Latest Trade Negotiation Progress - Since October, Sino - US game has intensified. After multiple rounds of communications and consultations, from October 25th to 26th, Sino - US economic and trade teams held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues and will go through the respective domestic approval procedures [25][26] 2.2 Impact of Negotiation Results on the Domestic Soybean Meal Market - If the negotiation makes no progress or only cancels part of the tariffs, the 03 contract may rise to repair the crushing profit. If all mutual - imposed tariffs are cancelled, the 01 and 03 contracts may weaken further. If China promises to increase the purchase of US soybeans, it will be a major bearish factor for domestic soybean meal [29][30][31] 2.3 Follow - up Concerns - Whether Sino - US will issue a joint statement this week and their interaction. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 31st to November 1st [33] III. Fundamental Overview 3.1 United States - **Reasons for the rebound and future trend of US soybeans**: The recent rebound of CBOT US soybeans is due to the strong domestic crushing demand in the US and the optimistic expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans. If US soybeans return to the Chinese market, CBOT US soybeans may rise, but the increase should not be over - optimistic. If not, the price may fall below 1000 cents [35][36] - **Harvest approaching the end**: The new - season US soybean harvest started in mid - September and is expected to be over 80% completed [37] - **No new - crop US soybeans sold to China**: Due to the current tariff level, China has not pre - purchased the 2025/26 new - crop US soybeans, and the sales progress of new - crop US soybeans is the slowest in the past decade [38] 3.2 Brazil - **Smooth sowing of new crops and increasing production forecast**: As of October 18th, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 21.7%. The predicted export volume of soybeans in the 2025/2026 crop year is expected to reach 1.1211 billion tons, and the production is expected to be 1.7764 billion tons [47] - **Significant year - on - year increase in soybean exports**: In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 734.1 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year. ANEC expects the export volume in October to be 734 million tons [49] - **A large amount of unsold old - crop soybeans**: The unsold old - crop soybeans in Brazil are estimated to be about 1500 - 2000 million tons [50] 3.3 Argentina - **New - crop sowing to start in mid - to late October with a reduced planting area**: The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Argentina is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [57] - **The suspension of export tax causing an earthquake in the global soybean market**: After Argentina suspended the export tax on soybeans and related products from September 23rd, the global soybean price fell, and the spot market in Argentina was booming. During the tax - suspension period, the cumulative export sales of soybeans exceeded 5 million tons, further confirming the sufficient soybean supply in China this year [58] 4.1 China - **Abundant soybean supply**: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in domestic oil mills in October is about 9.49 million tons, and the annual cumulative import volume is expected to reach 112.18 million tons, a record high. As of October 18th, the purchase progress for November was 87%, 16.1% for December, and no purchase for January. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is still high [63][64] - **Support from rigid demand but hard to offset the short - term high supply**: Since August, the downstream replenishment ability has been limited. From September to October, the monthly feed production increased month - on - month, and the proportion of soybean meal in feed increased [82] IV. Future Outlook - **Futures market**: In the short - term, soybean meal may weaken due to the expected Sino - US soybean purchase agreement. In the medium - term, the 01 contract may be affected by weather and purchase progress, and the 03 contract may decline if US soybeans arrive in China in the first quarter of next year [98] - **Spot market**: In the short - term, the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of the year, and the weak basis may last until November. In the medium - term, the basis may rise slightly but will be restricted by the sufficient soybean supply [100]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation in Malaysia sent positive signals, with the two sides reaching a framework on issues such as fentanyl, ships, rare earths, and soybeans, and the 10 - month Sino - US trade friction is basically over for now [2]. - The US inflation in September was basically in line with expectations. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP this Thursday, but its stance on subsequent rate cuts may be dovish [3]. - The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes technological self - reliance, and it is expected that industrial and fiscal policies related to the modern industrial system and technological self - reliance will be introduced. The financial report shows that finance is serving the real economy more closely, and policies will promote a moderately loose monetary policy and lower social comprehensive financing costs [4][5]. - The A - share market rebounded last week, with the technology growth sector as the main line. With multiple favorable policies over the weekend, the market is expected to break through 4000 points on Monday, but the short - term upside space is limited, and the market is expected to show a volatile rebound trend. Maintain long positions in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - **US CPI**: The US September CPI was lower than expected. Traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. The US White House may not release inflation data next month for the first time in history [7]. - **Trade Agreements**: The US signed various trade and key mineral agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, and will maintain certain tariffs. Trump met with the Brazilian president for economic and trade negotiations, and announced additional tariffs on Canada and terminated trade negotiations with it [7]. - **Other News**: Trump said the stock market was stronger due to tariff policies. The US and Japan may sign a technology cooperation memorandum. Xi Jinping will attend the APEC meeting in South Korea. The Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur reached a preliminary consensus. The State Council emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy and high - quality financial services. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. The CSRC focused on enhancing the resilience and risk - resistance ability of the capital market [7][8][9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Multiple charts show the basis of contracts and inter - period spreads of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, including the basis of each contract (current month, next month, current quarter, next quarter) and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [11][16][20]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Index Valuation**: Charts present the valuations and historical quantiles of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and the valuations and historical quantiles of Shenwan industries [31][33]. - **Market Volume and Turnover**: Charts show the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks in the two markets, the change in index trading volume, the relative return of stocks and bonds, the Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and the net purchase amount of margin trading and its proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Charts show the central bank's open market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [41].