股指早报 关税谈判观察期，A 股业绩报风险仍需注意 2025 年 4 月 16 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.16 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 4 月纽约联储制造业指数录得-8.1%，高于预期- 14.5 和前值-20，数据指向美制造业回落但幅度放缓。关税方面，据 外媒报道美欧贸易谈判零进展，欧盟预计美国将维持对其的关税政 策。白宫新闻秘书莱维特强调特朗普明确表示他愿意与中国达成协 议，因此，中国需要与美国达成协议。虽然目前关税谈判状态处于僵 持中，但其中隐含升级的风险。隔夜市场走势来看，美元指数小幅反 弹，美债收益率有所回落，黄金上涨，美三大股指均下跌，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数下跌，离岸人民币汇率贬值，继续跟踪关税方面消息， 这会加大资产的波动。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘低开震荡上涨 0.15%，深成指下跌 0.27%，创业板指下跌 0.13%，市场呈现指数窄幅震荡，个股分化行情 走势。板块上银行涨幅居前，说明主要还是稳指数，市场风险偏好并 未明显回升。另外值得注意的是盘中指数回踩的过程中出现国家队的 护盘，且主要聚焦在沪深 300，小票中证 2000 则未有动作，这说明 目前国家队稳指数的意图还是很明显。板块 ...

股指早报 A 股周三扛住极限施压，特朗普宣布 90 天关税暂停 2025 年 4 月 10 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.10 报告摘要： 海外方面，欧盟通过了对价值 232 亿美元的美国进口产品征收 25%关税。在中国反制之后，欧盟也开始反制。美元相关资产美元、 美债、美股经历恐慌性抛售。之后特朗普宣布对不采取报复行动的国 家实施 90 天关税暂停，对中国加征关税至 125%。隔夜外围市场大涨， 美元指数先跌后涨，美债收益率回落，黄金上涨，美三大股指期货大 涨，道指收涨 7.87%，标普上涨 9.52%，纳指上涨 12.16%，纳斯达克 中国金龙指数上涨 4.5%，离岸人民币汇率回到 7.35 的水平。另外今 日美联储也公布 3 月会议纪要，决策者一致认为美国经济面临着同 时通胀上升和增长放缓的风险，维持利率不变是适当的。特朗普与美 联储的博弈，美联储更有耐心，特朗普的贸易博弈也超出预期。这也 表示管理层在出台政策时候不能完全无视金融市场，而美受到金融市 场制约明显更大。 国内盘面上看，在美对中继续加征 50%关税后，周三 A 股扛住了 极限施压，大盘上涨 1.31%，深成指上涨 1.22%，创业板指上涨 ...

股指早报 对等关税方案落地，外围走衰退逻辑 2025 年 4 月 3 日 股指期货早报 2025.4.3 报告摘要： 海外方面，今日特朗普宣布全球对等关税方案，关税超预期。针 对所有进口商品的普遍性的基准关税加征 10%，将于 4 月 5 日生效。 对等关税则在 4 月 9 日生效，分国别来看，中国 34%、欧盟 20%、越 南 46%、瑞士 31%、日本 24%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、泰国 36%、印尼 32%、英国 10%、菲律宾 17%，柬埔寨征收最高 49%。对等关税为叠加 税率，对中国来说，今年 2 月和 3 月已经加征 20%，此次又是 34%， 那么今年对中国加征税率为 54%。对中国、越南、瑞士等国家加征关 税远超预期。因关税方案宣布是美股收盘后，方案宣布后，金融市场 明显走衰退逻辑，美股期指大跌，纳指和标普 500 的期指分别下跌 4.46%和 3.58%，10 年期美债收益率下跌，美元指数基本震荡，黄金 上涨。距离基准关税生效有 3 天，对等关税生效 6 天，在此期间各国 的的反制博弈等均会对盘面造成影响。 国内盘面上看，周三大盘低开震荡微涨 0.05%，深成指上涨 0.09%，创业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since mid - March, due to the marginal improvement of the central bank's monetary policy attitude, long - term bonds have significantly recovered. The central bank's monetary policy orientation currently has the greatest influence on bond pricing. Although the exchange - rate pressure has been alleviated, there are still many constraints on short - term policy - level interest rate cuts, but the probability of structural reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is relatively high [1][112]. - The most pessimistic point of the bond market has passed, and it is moving towards positive carry repair. In the short term, the bond market will experience a volatile market, while in the medium - to - long term, there is still room for interest rates to decline [2][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since 2025, the bond market has been continuously adjusting. In the first quarter, the short - end adjusted more significantly under the tight balance of funds. The yield curve showed a bear - steepening characteristic at the beginning and then a bear - flattening characteristic. As of March 27, the 1 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 40bp to 1.53%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by more than 12bp to 1.8% [5]. - The bond market trend from December 2024 to now can be divided into four stages: from early to late December 2024, the curve was bull - steepening; from late December 2024 to mid - February 2025, the curve was bear - flattening; from mid - February to mid - March 2025, the curve moved upward as a whole; from mid - March 2025 to now, long - term bonds have recovered [10][12]. 3.2 Monetary Policy Orientation - Since mid - February, the monetary policy has shifted to a tight balance. Since mid - March, the central bank's attitude has marginally loosened but remains cautious. This is reflected in the early convening of the first - quarter monetary policy meeting, the central bank's net investment after the tax period, and the change of MLF to "American tender" [16]. - The central bank's demand for bond - market risk prevention and exchange - rate stability remains unchanged. The change in the statement of the bond market reflects the intention to reduce yield fluctuations, and the exchange - rate stability goal is still clear [17]. - The demand for reducing financing costs has increased, expanding from "enterprises and residents" to "the whole society", which may imply a decline in bond - market yields [25]. 3.3 MLF Adjustment - In terms of operation form, the advance announcement of MLF operation news and the change to "American tender" show the central bank's signal of maintaining stability. In terms of scale, the MLF was over - renewed by 630 billion yuan in March, which is the first over - renewal since August 2024. In terms of price, it is expected to relieve the bank's interest - margin pressure [30]. - The adjustment of MLF is a marginal easing signal, but it may also mean a reduced probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts [31]. 3.4 Funds - The funds have maintained a tight balance. Since early March, the funds rate has become more stable, with DR007 stabilizing at 1.8%, and the cross - quarter funds price seasonally rising to around 2.3%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate has dropped below 1.9% [43]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, and a moderately loose funds environment is needed to avoid high issuance costs [48]. 3.5 Bank Liability - Side Pressure - Since the beginning of the year, the lack of bank liabilities has pushed up the funds rate. Large state - owned banks have a long - term problem of deposit shortage, but as of the end of February, the deposit gap has narrowed [59][66]. - Since mid - March, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield has declined across the board. As of March 27, the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield of national and joint - stock banks has dropped to 1.9%, about 15bp lower than the mid - March high [67]. 3.6 Fundamental Aspects - The economic data shows strong supply and weak demand. In terms of production, the growth rate of industrial added value may slow down; in terms of consumption, the growth rate of some consumer goods is high, but the overall consumption recovery is limited; in terms of investment, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment is slightly lower than that of the same period last year; in the real - estate sector, new construction starts remain at a low growth rate [77][78][79]. - Financial and inflation data are weak. The social financing data from January to February shows that the overall volume is acceptable, but the structure needs to be optimized. The government bond financing is an important support, while the real - economy financing demand is declining [86].

谨慎对待交割的兑现 2025 年 3 月 31 日 玻璃月报 报告要点： 上个月的月报中，我们提及不妨关注盘面在低估值区间时需求来临 后的反弹机会。3 月上旬盘面持续低于湖北地区低价仓单价格，位 于偏低估区间，需求复苏后盘面出现反弹，虽然反弹力度不低，但 是持续性力度存疑。 从估值看，若盘面继续向下，将再次进入上游垒库、需求不及预 期、湖北地区低价仓单无法解决的定价。以 3 月份以后的湖北现货 低价 1100 为基准，加仓单费用后基本平水当前的盘面价格。 但是对应到 05 合约，一个即将交割的合约来看，除非接下来几周的 需求表现超预期的强，且带动湖北地区涨价，中游库存迅速去化， 解决掉 05 合约的交割问题。否则不得不面临湖北地区贴水交割的问 题。 随着时间越来越近，应慢慢以交割思维对待 05 合约。那么盘面不再 是平水，对贴水交割的湖北来说，当前盘面仍有升水。1100 的现 货，盘面 60~80 的贴水是合理的。 4 月份需求只有超预期走强才能偏强对待，否则建议要谨慎对待交 割的兑现。 风险点，宏观扰动 创元研究 创元研究黑色组 研究员：陶锐 邮箱： taor@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z00 ...

宏观专题报告 对于近期长债大幅波动的思考 2024 年 8 月 11 日 宏观专题报告 报告要点： 7 月末，中国迎来降息潮，主要政策利率迎来一波普降，伴随 7 月 25 日 MLF 超预期降息 20bp 的出现，长债及超长债利率在 7 月末至 8 月 初大幅走低。 极致行情下，10 年国债和 30 年国债收益率分别最低下行至 2.10%和 2.30%附近，创下 2003 年、2005 年以来的历史新低水平。在当前点 位下，历史经验的对于债券收益率绝对值判断的参考性变弱。同时央 行监管的缺位，借券卖债等行为迟迟未发生，导致 10 年期国债收益 率跌破 2.2%，30 年国债收益率跌破 2.4%的"央行合意点位"后，收益 率直线下跌。而短债利率在宽松现实的影响下，保持顺畅下行。截至 8 月 7 日，10 年期国债约 2.13%，30 年期国债约 2.3%附近。央行在 这个点位附近引导大行卖券操作，我们认为可以视作央行对于长债 "合意点位和区间"的下移。 基本面上，二季度 GDP 增速下滑，通胀延续低位，实体融资成本高 企，稳增长压力仍较大，货币政策定调仍将积极，广谱利率仍有下调 空间；资金面上，地方政府债将迎来 ...

宏观专题报告 报告要点 . | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 时间段 1:1993-1996年:投资热潮,产能扩张,利润攀升,经济过热 ... ... ... ... .. | | | 时间段 2：1997-1998 年：紧缩银根，产能淘汰，收入下滑,进入通缩 ... .. | | | 1998 年-2002 年： . | | 1. | 货币政策转松：降准降息 | | 2. | 财政政策发力：发长期建设国债搞基建投资 | | | 政策成效：宽货币向宽信用传导不畅，财政发力托底经济… | | | 3. 入世才外需 | | | 4. 总结: . | | | 2023 年至今 ... ... .. .. .. .. .. | | | 相似点: . | | | 不同点: . | | | 结论: | | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------- ...

美非农超预期，A 股量化交易监管新进度 2024 年 6 月 10 日 股指周报 股指周报（2024.6.3-2024.6.10） 报告要点： 海外方面，近期公布的美国经济数据和小非农数据均支持美联储 降息预期回升，但周五公布的美国 5 月非农数据整体超预期，使得近 期边际升温的降息预期有所回落。另外上周 G7 中两大经济体，加拿 大央行和欧央行开始宣布降息，使得海外开始进入降息周期。整体来 看上周美联储降息预期处于首先回升，之后回落的状况，但整周因受 公布的美国 PMI、小非农和欧央行降息影响，整体处于美债收益率回 落，美股上涨的状态。本周三美国会公布 CPI 数据，数据会对上周五 美超预期的非农数据进行验证，从而影响到周四的美联储利率决议， 而在周四利率决议中，美联储会给市场传递出更为明确的后续利率路 径，而这也会对近期市场预期的左右摇摆来调整。 国内方面，5 月出口超预期，主因外需走强对我国出口起到拉动， 另外拜登宣布加征关税引发的抢出口对出口也存在影响，从 5 月 PMI 中新订单指数大幅回落中也需要注意后续出口持续走强存在隐忧。本 周将公布 5 月金融数据，虽然房地产销售依旧疲弱，但政府专项债提 速 ...