农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周二，郑糖主力合约止跌反弹，主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main soybean oil contract dropped significantly. Favorable weather in South American soybean - growing regions, a slowdown in US soybean exports, and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations led to a weakening of soybean oil. With increased import soybean auctions in China and sufficient inventory, supply is generally loose. It is recommended to hold a short - position in the main contract, with support at 7,600 - 7,650 yuan/ton and resistance at 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil contract declined sharply this week. Global rapeseed harvest expectations, increased Australian rapeseed imports, and potential improvement in China - Canada relations have created a bearish sentiment. It is advisable to maintain a short - position, with resistance at 9,500 - 9,550 yuan/ton and support at 8,450 - 8,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main palm oil contract was dragged down this week. Although there are some positive factors in its fundamentals, such as a decline in December Malaysian palm oil production and improved exports, it was affected by the weakening of crude oil and other oils. Short - term cautious short - selling is recommended, with resistance at 8,700 - 8,750 yuan/ton and support at 8,150 - 8,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Bean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans, DCE Bean No. 2, and soybean meal prices fell. Favorable South American weather, a slowdown in US soybean exports, and increased import soybean auctions in China suggest that the supply shortage expected from February to April may be alleviated. Short - term short - selling is recommended for both. For the soybean meal 05 contract, support is at 2,650 - 2,680 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,780 - 2,800 yuan/ton. For the Bean No. 2 01 contract, support is at 3,570 - 3,600 yuan/ton and resistance at 3,750 - 3,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures oscillated this week. With Australian rapeseed entering the crushing stage and expected supply increase, the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,440 - 2,450 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Bean No. 1**: The main Bean No. 1 contract declined. The overall supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but there is a structural shortage of high - protein soybeans. With the start of competitive sales and high trader inventories, downstream procurement is not active. Short - term short - selling is recommended, with resistance at 4,130 - 4,160 yuan/ton and support at 3,980 - 4,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend. The overseas market is focused on consumption and South American weather. The domestic market was previously driven by structural contradictions but is now affected by negative news. It is expected to enter a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see. For the corn 2603 contract, support is at 2,160 - 2,170 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton. For the corn starch 03 contract, support is at 2,430 - 2,440 yuan/ton and resistance at 2,600 - 2,620 yuan/ton [5]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices fluctuated slightly over the weekend. Pig prices have fallen below the cash cost in some areas, and the pig - grain ratio has dropped below 5:1. The futures price of live pigs hit a new low this year, and the 03 contract oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that cautious investors hold a short - near - term and long - far - term reverse spread, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when it falls below the breeding cost [6]. - **Eggs**: Egg spot prices weakened over the weekend. The egg index continued to oscillate and rebound at the bottom. Terminal consumption is expected to increase in December. With farmers increasing the culling of laying hens, the supply - demand pattern is improving. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract at low prices, and it is not advisable to short - sell speculatively [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the feed, livestock, and oil industries, including their supply - demand logic, support and resistance levels, market trends, and recommended strategies [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report presents the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of different commodities in the feed, livestock, and oil industries [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as CNF prices, import - duty - paid prices, and soybean meal costs when the crushing profit is zero [13][14]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [15]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides weekly data on corn and corn starch, including deep - processing enterprise consumption, inventory, operating rate, and farmers' grain - selling progress [15]. 3.2.3 Livestock The report presents weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand indicators [16][17]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts This part includes a large number of charts related to the livestock (pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, which visually display the price trends, inventory changes, and other information of various commodities [18 - 87]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report shows the historical volatility of various commodities' options and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [67 - 76]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report presents the warehouse receipt quantities and open interest of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [78 - 87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increased volatility. After the digestion of macro - negative sentiments and supported by fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery. However, there are still differences in strength among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the resonance between fundamentals and macro - drivers [11][12]. - The market is currently affected by multiple factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, fluctuations in technology stocks, and changes in economic data in China and the US. The performance of each non - ferrous metal variety is affected by both macro - environment and its own fundamentals [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. After the digestion of negative factors and with the support of fundamentals, the sector is recovering. There are differences in performance among different varieties. Key factors include the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, and fluctuations in technology stocks [11]. - **Economic Data**: In China, from January to November, real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 1.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the US, the unemployment rate in November rose to a four - year high, and the retail sales in October were generally flat [11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: | Variety | Operation Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Affected by factors such as US employment data and market sentiment, with improved downstream acceptance of high prices and a structural contradiction in global copper inventory, the copper price is expected to rise. | 90000 - 91000 | 94500 - 95000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | With a good short - term fundamental situation and affected by factors such as supply reduction and demand changes, the market is oscillating. | 22800 - 23000 | 23500 - 23800 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | The aluminum market is in an oscillating adjustment phase, with an oversupply situation in alumina and a complex situation in the aluminum downstream. | 21000 - 21300; 2000 - 2200; 20000 - 20400 | 23000 - 24000; 2800 - 3000; 21500 - 21800 | Aluminum oscillating adjustment; Alumina oscillating at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy oscillating adjustment | Wait - and - see or buy on dips; Sell on rallies; Wait - and - see or buy on dips | +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 | | Tin | Affected by supply and demand factors such as smelter production and consumption, the market is oscillating. | 290000 - 300000 | 335000 - 340000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see for the time being | - 0.5 | | Lead | Affected by factors such as smelter production and demand changes in lead - acid battery enterprises, the price is oscillating weakly. | 16500 - 16600 | 17200 - 17300 | Oscillating weakly | Double - selling strategy | - 0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by factors such as potential RKAB quota reduction in Indonesia and supply - demand changes, the price is rebounding. | 110000 - 112000 | 120000 - 122000 | Rebound | Short - term rebound | +1 | | Stainless Steel | In a period of weak supply and demand, with reduced production in December and weak demand. | 12200 - 12300 | 12700 - 12800 | Repeated at low levels | Wait - and - see for the time being | +0.5 | [13][14][15][16] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, copper closed at 92600 with a - 0.24% change, and zinc closed at 23030 with a 0.26% change [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on the price change rate, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base value, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and industrial silicon [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 92430 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 23140 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change [20][21][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant data charts of various non - ferrous metals industry chains are presented, including copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and aluminum inventory and price trends [25][28][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant data charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [57][58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant data charts for option analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increasing volatility. After the digestion of macro negative factors, along with the recovery of technology stocks and the support of fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a rebound. However, due to different fundamental support, there are still differences in strength within the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to whether Japan's interest rate hike is realized, and if it is in line with expectations, the impact may be limited. This week, important data and central bank decisions from various countries need to be focused on [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The market has a certain willingness to take profits. After the digestion of negative factors, the buying at dips for fundamentally strong varieties and positive news for some varieties have led to a rebound in non - ferrous metals. There are also various economic data and events in China, the United States, and Japan, as well as new regulations from the LME [11]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to rise, with a support range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 94,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy at dips [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in a corrective adjustment, with support at 22,800 - 23,000 and pressure at 23,500 - 23,800. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment, alumina is oscillating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and adjusting. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties [15]. - **Tin**: It is in an oscillatory arrangement, with support at 290,000 - 300,000 and pressure at 335,000 - 340,000. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [15]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating weakly, with support at 16,500 - 16,600 and pressure at 17,200 - 17,300. A double - selling strategy is recommended [16]. - **Nickel**: It shows a rebound, with support at 110,000 - 112,000 and pressure at 120,000 - 122,000. It is recommended for a short - term rebound [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It fluctuates at a low level, with support at 12,200 - 12,300 and pressure at 12,700 - 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 92,820 with a 0.98% increase, and zinc closing at 22,970 with a 0.26% decrease [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the price change, the strength comparison of net long and short positions, the difference in net long and short positions, and the influencing factors of each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 92,340 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 23,020 yuan/ton with a 0.65% decrease [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, and aluminum inventory and price comparison [26][29][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [59][60]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper option historical volatility and the zinc option weighted implied volatility [78][80].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 美联储12月如期降息25BP，为年内连续第三次降息，同时将启动 扩表，本月开始进行400亿美元规模的短债购买。鲍威尔表态比市 场预期偏鸽。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。但市场担忧 日本央行加息，引发铜价短期承压。美国市场的虹吸效应进一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Crude Oil Market Trend Review - Reviews the historical trends of crude oil from 1983 - 2025 and the trend in 2025 [4][5] - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of domestic crude oil futures [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis No detailed content is provided, but it includes IMF's global economic growth forecast, relationships between global and major - country manufacturing PMI, CPI, PPI, and oil prices [5] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply Analysis - Global crude oil supply is expected to maintain growth in 2026 [4] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026 but may continue to release production capacity later [4] - US crude oil output will slow down further [4] - Global geopolitical turmoil continues to affect crude oil supply [4] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand Analysis - The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline [4] - The increase in US oil demand is limited [4] - European oil demand is expected to remain sluggish [4] - China's oil consumption has increased significantly [4] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Presents EIA/OPEC/IEA's crude oil supply - demand balance data from 2021 - 2026, including total supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences [62] 3.6 Crude Oil Options Analysis - Analyzes the trading volume and open interest of crude oil options [4] - Analyzes crude oil options strategies [4] 3.7 Technical and Seasonal Analysis - Conducts technical analysis [4] - Conducts seasonal analysis [4] 3.8 Outlook for the Future No detailed content is provided. 3.9 Statistics of Related Stock Prices and Price Changes - Lists the stock abbreviations, codes, latest prices, and year - to - date price changes of multiple crude - oil - related stocks [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Data - On December 10, 2025, the registered warehouse receipt volume of natural rubber was 46,030 lots, a year-on-year decrease of 57.73%, and the registered warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber was 56,752 lots, a year-on-year decrease of 15.97% [22] Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, and positions of rubber, including natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and synthetic rubber, as well as their historical volatility and weighted implied volatility [5][6] Supply - related Information - The report presents the production and export data of natural rubber in major producing countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Cote d'Ivoire, and also shows the production and export data of synthetic rubber [43][54][57] - The global main producing areas' rubber tapping cycles are provided, including different regions in China, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam [48][49] Demand - related Information - The report shows the production and sales data of China's automobile and tire industries, including automobile production, heavy - truck sales, tire production and export volume, and tire factory operating rates [83][84][87] Inventory Information - The inventory data of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in China are presented, including social inventory, Qingdao inventory, and the weekly inventory of butadiene rubber [92][93] Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance sheets of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in China are provided. The natural rubber balance sheet covers the years from 2020 to 2025E, and the synthetic rubber balance sheet shows the monthly supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber [95][98] Stock Price Information - The stock prices and price changes of relevant stocks on December 11, 2025, compared with January 2, 2025, are presented, including Hainan Rubber, Guizhou Tire, and other companies [108]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth slowed down in 2025 with a decline in quarterly GDP growth rates. Consumption was stable supported by policies, net - export performance exceeded expectations, and investment was the weakest contributor. The economic logic changed from high real growth with deflation in the first half to deflation repair with output deceleration in the second half. The "anti - involution" policy was a major influencing factor [2][5][90]. - In 2026, the inventory cycle is expected to recover, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half, and the internal driving force will strengthen. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the slowdown of de - globalization will improve external demand. The real output growth rate will rise steadily, and supply - demand will re - balance [2][5][90]. - The government is likely to set the target of the annual real GDP growth rate at around 5.0% in 2026. Deflation will gradually turn into weak inflation, and the nominal GDP growth rate will improve significantly, which will be the foundation for the improvement of corporate revenue, profits, fiscal revenue, and household income in the long - term [2][5][90]. - The commodity market will continue to rebound in an oscillatory manner in 2026. In the first half, supply constraints and the "anti - involution" narrative will boost new energy and non - ferrous metals. In the second half, the structural market may turn into a systematic one, with a more widespread rise in prices and a reduction in the differences among industrial products. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [2][87][91]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Economic Highlights in 2026 May Lie in Nominal Growth 1. External Disturbances End, the Cycle Hits Bottom, and Supply - Demand Will Re - balance - In 2025, industrial added - value growth was stable, and nominal output first declined and then rebounded. The economic growth logic in the second half was different from that in the first half. High - tech and equipment manufacturing industries had the fastest growth rates. The semiconductor industry output was concentrated upstream. The main problem was the imbalance between supply and demand due to weak external and internal demand [15]. - The inventory cycle is expected to recover in 2026, with the bottom likely in the second quarter. The economy will show a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions will improve external demand. High - tech manufacturing will remain strong, while traditional industries will have limited upward space [15][16]. 2. Weakening Financial Support Leads to a Temporary Slowdown in Investment Growth - In 2025, the investment growth rate continued to slow down, becoming a major drag on domestic demand. By November, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased to 1.5%, and the nominal year - on - year growth rate dropped to - 1.7% [19]. - Infrastructure investment was weaker than expected, mainly affected by the amount and timing of funds. Manufacturing investment was generally stable, supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The negative impact of Sino - US trade conflicts on manufacturing investment confidence will gradually weaken. Real estate investment was the main drag, with a cumulative decline of nearly 15%. The real estate market sales were poor, and the industry's capital chain was weak. In the long - term, the real estate industry is difficult to return to the upward cycle [19][20][22]. 3. Subsidies Are the Main Support for Consumption, and Income Should Be Concerned in the Long - Term - In 2025, consumption growth first accelerated and then slowed down. The main influencing factor was the subsidy policy, with a total of 300 billion yuan invested, double that of 2024. The decline in consumption growth was mainly due to the reduction in subsidies. The long - term consumption trend depends on income growth, including passive and active income improvement and wage income improvement. Endogenous consumption repair may occur in the second half of 2026 [24]. 4. The Foreign Trade Environment Will Improve in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports exceeded expectations. Sino - US trade was affected by the trade war, with four stages of tariff adjustments. The overall export structure showed an upward trend in emerging industries and a downward trend in traditional labor - intensive industries. The trade surplus continued to reach new highs [28]. - In 2026, exports are expected to maintain growth, especially in the second half. Imports will gradually accelerate with the domestic inventory - building process. The contribution of foreign trade to the economy will increase [28]. Part 2: Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation, Increasing Support for Nominal Growth 1. The Driving Logic of CPI Changes, and Core CPI Rises Steadily - In 2025, CPI fluctuated around 0, and core CPI continued to rise, reaching about 1.2% in the fourth quarter. Food prices were mainly affected by seasonality, and pork prices had a negative impact on CPI. Oil prices also dragged down CPI. Core CPI reflected the structural changes in the domestic consumer market and the rise in international gold prices [45]. - In 2026, the pig cycle will have a small positive impact on food prices, and oil price drag will decrease. Core CPI will continue to improve with economic recovery, and its central value may rise to around 0.5% [45]. 2. The Low Point of PPI Has Passed, and Deflation Will Turn into Weak Inflation - In 2025, PPI first declined and then rebounded. The main factors were imported deflation and industrial supply - demand imbalance. High - tech manufacturing prices were stable, which was a key factor in stabilizing PPI. In the second half, the negative factors eased [48]. - In 2026, the global economy will improve cyclically, and PPI is likely to turn positive. The new price - increasing momentum will gradually strengthen, and PPI will change from a drag to a driver of the GDP deflator [48]. Part 3: Loose Fiscal Policy Remains the Pillar, and "Anti - Involution" Enhances Economic Resilience 1. Loose Monetary Policy, and the Risk - Free Yield May Remain Stable - In 2025, the central bank's monetary policy was loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in May. Government financing was the main factor affecting macro - liquidity in the second and third quarters, and "anti - involution" supported the liquidity of upstream and mid - stream enterprises. The growth rate of broad social financing slowed down in the fourth quarter [54]. - In 2026, fiscal increment will still have the strongest impact on macro - liquidity. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 10BP and reserve requirement ratio by 25BP. The risk - free yield may remain volatile [54]. 2. Budgetary Revenue Stabilizes, and Broad Fiscal Policy Shows Structural Improvement - In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates recovered. Tax revenue was stable and increased, while land transfer revenue was low, dragging down the broad fiscal situation. Fiscal expenditure on infrastructure was affected by policies, and the fiscal deficit increased significantly [60]. - In 2026, fiscal policy will remain proactive. Broad fiscal policy will show structural improvement, mainly driven by the improvement of nominal growth and accelerated net financing. The degree of real estate recovery in the second half will be a decisive factor [61]. 3. "Anti - Involution" Is the Largest Policy Increment and Will Continue to Affect the Economy - The "anti - involution" policy was introduced in 2025 to address deflation, supply - demand imbalance, and local government incentive mechanism problems. It mainly focused on emerging industries with over - capacity and price wars [69][70]. - In 2026, the implementation of "anti - involution" policies will continue, improving corporate revenues, especially for upstream enterprises. The policy will focus on optimizing the supply - side structure, and future demand - side policies are important to watch [71]. Part 4: The Renminbi Will Maintain a Relatively Strong Position Against the US Dollar - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate was generally slightly bullish. Against the US dollar, it showed an appreciating trend with a three - stage pattern. The main reasons were the increase in foreign - related net receipts and bank customer net settlement of foreign exchange, as well as the central bank's policy to maintain exchange rate stability [76]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to continue to appreciate against the US dollar, with the high point expected around 6.7. However, the appreciation space of the exchange rate index is limited due to factors such as stable foreign trade [76][77]. Part 5: The Commodity Market Will Continue to Rebound in an Oscillatory Manner - In 2025, most domestic commodity futures prices declined, with increased differentiation. In the first and second quarters, prices fell, and in the third quarter, they rebounded due to the "anti - involution" policy. In the fourth quarter, most prices oscillated or declined again. Different commodity sectors had different performances [84]. - In 2026, the commodity market will continue to rebound. In the first half, new energy and non - ferrous metals will be boosted, and in the second half, the market may turn into a systematic one. The rebound height of black products depends on the real estate situation, and precious metals will maintain an upward trend [87][91]. Part 6: Full - Text Summary and Outlook for 2026 - The economic situation in 2025 was weak, with consumption as the main support, net - export exceeding expectations, and investment being the weakest. The economic logic changed in the second half of the year, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact [89][90]. - In 2026, the economy is expected to improve with the recovery of the inventory cycle, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the improvement of external demand. The government may set the real GDP growth target at around 5.0%. Deflation will turn into weak inflation, and the commodity market will continue to rebound [90][91].

Group 1: Egg Spot Price Monthly Fluctuations - The table shows the monthly price changes of egg spots from 2014 - 2025, with an average monthly change calculated [19] - Different months have different price change trends, for example, July generally has a positive price change with an average of 0.66 yuan/jin, while September has a negative average change of -0.49 yuan/jin [19] Group 2: Hen Artificial Forced Molting Process - The process starts with a 450 - day - old hen flock, takes 6 - 8 weeks to complete molting, restores the egg - laying rate to 90%, has an egg - laying peak period of 55 - 60 days, and the hens are culled at 650 days of age [54] Group 3: Industry Breeding Profit and Cost - The main income of a 10,000 - hen farm is 2.9 yuan/jin (based on the main production area wholesale price), and the full - cost is 3.54 yuan/jin, resulting in a full - cost loss of - 0.64 yuan/jin and a cash - flow loss of - 0.08 yuan/jin [63] - The daily cash loss of a 10,000 - hen farm (assuming an 85% egg - laying rate) is 84 yuan, and the monthly loss is 2550 yuan; the daily full - cost loss is 570 yuan, and the monthly loss is 17,000 yuan. The cumulative loss in the current year is about 136,000 yuan [63] - The total investment of a 10,000 - hen farm is about 1.15 million yuan, including 600,000 yuan for construction and chicken coops, 500,000 yuan for breeding equipment, and 30,000 yuan for chicks [63] Group 4: Hen Breeding Profit by Year and Month - The table shows the monthly and annual average breeding profits of hens from 2016 - 2025. For example, the annual average profit in 2016 was 1.62 yuan/jin, and in 2020 it was - 0.08 yuan/jin [64] - Different months also have different profit levels, such as August having a relatively high average monthly profit of 0.88 yuan/jin [64] Group 5: Profit and Loss Cycles - The industry has alternating profit and loss cycles. For example, the profit cycle from 2014.05 - 2015.02 lasted for 10 months, followed by a 10 - month loss cycle from 2015.03 - 2015.12 [67] Group 6: Egg Price Fluctuations during Mid - Autumn Festival - The table shows the egg price fluctuations during the Mid - Autumn Festival from 2013 - 2025, including the Mid - Autumn Festival date, high - point date, days from high - point to Mid - Autumn Festival, high - point price, start - up date, days from start - up to Mid - Autumn Festival, start - up price, and price increase. The average price increase is 1.62 yuan [73] Group 7: Egg Price Fluctuations during Spring Festival - The table shows the high and low points of egg spot prices during the Spring Festival from 2012 - 2026 (predicted), including the Spring Festival date, pre - holiday high - point, high - point date, days from high - point to Spring Festival, post - holiday low - point, low - point date, post - holiday decline, and decline duration [75] Group 8: Monthly Price Change Rates - Two tables show the monthly price change rates of eggs from 2016 - 2025, with average monthly change rates calculated. For example, the average monthly change rate in January is - 1.45% in one table and - 0.14% in the other [76][77] Group 9: Stock Performance - The table shows the performance of several stocks related to the poultry industry on December 11, 2025, and January 2, 2025, including the annual price change rate. For example, Xiaoming Co., Ltd. had an annual price increase of 65.20%, while Yisheng Co., Ltd. had a decrease of 9.86% [93]

Group 1: Report's Core View - In 2025, the overall commodity market showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. Agricultural products were less affected by macro - liquidity but pressured by cyclical factors. The downstream of the breeding industry chain led the decline, and pig prices hit a new low in Q3 2025. The industry focused on cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement, with no significant increase in absolute production capacity, but the production efficiency of sows improved [2]. - Looking ahead to H1 2026, it's difficult for feed costs to continue to decline. As the de - stocking of pig production capacity deepens, pig prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy contracts after 2607 below the breeding cost or go long on market volatility in Q2 [3]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Review of 2025 Pig Futures and Spot Prices 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Price Quotes - In 2025, domestic policies increased liquidity, but the economy still faced pressure. Commodity prices were polarized, and agricultural products generally fell. The downstream of the feed - breeding industry chain was under pressure due to over - capacity and weak demand [11]. 2. Summary of Characteristics of Typical Pig Cycle Bottoms in the Past - Different pig cycles had different bottom characteristics in terms of time, pig and piglet prices, sow inventory, and reasons for the bottom, such as diseases, trade issues, and policy impacts [47]. 3. Pig Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - There is no specific content about pig futures trading volume and open interest in the given text. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Pigs 1. Supply Side - The industry's absolute production capacity did not increase significantly, but the average PSY of sows increased from 24 to over 26, with some leading enterprises approaching 29. The growth of sow inventory was limited [2]. 2. Demand Side - In 2025, consumer confidence was low, and food consumption was at a low level. The slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit and capacity utilization rate of slaughtering enterprises were relatively low [78]. 3. Pork Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Related Meat Production - From 2010 to 2025E, the pork supply - demand balance sheet showed changes in production, imports, supply, and demand. In 2025E, production was 5230000 tons, imports were 80000 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 168000 tons [95]. 4. Pig Breeding Profit and Cost - The average breeding cost of group enterprises decreased. The profit of pig breeding showed seasonal and annual fluctuations, with significant differences between self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening [101][108][109]. 5. Seasonal Characteristics of Pig Prices - Pig prices showed certain seasonal patterns, with different monthly price changes in different years [112]. Part 3: Technical Analysis of Pig Futures and Option Strategies 1. Technical Analysis of Pig Futures - There is no specific content about the technical analysis of pig futures in the given text. 2. Pig Options - There is no specific content about pig options in the given text. Part 4: Outlook for the 2026 Pig Market - In 2026, it's difficult for feed costs to decline further. As the de - stocking of production capacity deepens, pig prices are expected to gradually recover from the bottom [3]. Appendix: Performance of Stock Prices of Related Listed Pig Companies - As of certain dates, different listed pig companies had different stock price performances and annual cumulative price change rates [124].