1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Methanol**: Coal prices are weakly stalemated with limited cost support. Supply is relatively stable, downstream demand follows mainly for rigid needs, and inventory accumulates slowly. With some Iranian devices shut down, imports may shrink later, and the methanol futures price has rebounded strongly. In the short - term, the center of gravity may continue to rise, but considering the high - temperature off - season, chasing the rise is not recommended. [3] - **PVC**: The cost side remains low, the market has abundant available goods, and demand follows generally, resulting in a slow market de - stocking speed. The upward trend of PVC futures price is hard to sustain. [4] - **Urea**: Daily production remains high, supply is abundant, and demand is weak with gradually accumulating enterprise inventory. With the expectation of improved agricultural demand, the urea futures have gradually stabilized. [5] - **Caustic Soda**: Enterprise profits are declining, the current capacity utilization rate is relatively high, downstream demand follows slowly, and market de - stocking is not smooth. Fundamentally, there is a lack of driving force, and it may fluctuate at a low level. [6][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Variety Strategy Views | Variety | Logic | View | Strategy | Support Level | Pressure Level | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | Import concerns | Steady upward exploration | Reduce long positions | 2330 - 2350 | 2530 - 2550 | | PVC | Insufficient demand | Upward pressure | Light - position short - trial | 4730 - 4750 | 4850 - 4900 | | Caustic Soda | Spot premium | Low - level wash - trading | Temporarily wait and see | 2200 - 2210 | 2330 - 2350 | | Urea | Loose supply and demand | Weak oscillation | Stop loss and exit short positions | 1650 - 1670 | 1730 - 1750 | [14] 3.2 Second Part: Futures Market Review | Variety | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 2511 | 2367 | 2464 | 2593634 | 820106 | 0.00% | | PVC | 4866 | 4792 | 4860 | 1194646 | 978942 | 0.00% | | Urea | 1727 | 1680 | 1723 | 411867 | 279024 | 0.00% | | Caustic Soda | 2278 | 2237 | 2276 | 410848 | 201021 | - 6.32% | [14] 3.3 Third Part: Spot Market Trends - **Methanol**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Central China 2255 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), Northwest 2010 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton), South China 2450 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton), North China 2055 yuan/ton (unchanged) [21] - **PVC**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: North China market 4493 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China market 4755 yuan/ton (unchanged), South China market 4823 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton) [24] - **Urea**: Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in different regions vary, such as 1693 yuan/ton in North China (up 5 yuan/ton), 1781 yuan/ton in East China (up 6 yuan/ton), etc. [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices in different regions are as follows: Shandong market 870 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu market 960 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang market 1160 yuan/ton (unchanged) [29] 3.4 Fourth Part: Futures - Spot Basis Changes | Variety | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Methanol | 121 | 30 | | PVC | - 105 | - 1 | | Caustic Soda | 22 | - 5 | | Urea | - 3 | - 72 | [36] 3.5 Fifth Part: Industry Startup Levels | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Startup Rate | 84.90% | 87.98% | 79.25% | 87.80% | 80.90% | | Month - on - Month Change | 4.14% | - 0.14% | - 1.47% | - 1.63% | - 2.60% | [41] 3.6 Sixth Part: Inventory Data Tracking | Variety | Soda Ash | Methanol | PVC | Urea | Caustic Soda | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory | 170.95 | 65.22 | 35.48 | 117.71 | 40.09 | | Weekly Change | 2.32 | 7.10 | - 0.66 | 14.17 | - 1.50 | [52] 3.7 Seventh Part: Market Supply and Demand Status - **Methanol**: The spot market atmosphere is warm, with prices rising. The spot is at a premium to futures, and the basis has expanded. The upstream coal market is stalemated, and the cost side changes little. The industry startup rate is high, and production is stable. Coastal inventory has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [57] - **PVC**: The spot market atmosphere is poor, with prices slightly loosening. The spot is at a discount to futures, and the basis has slightly expanded. The upstream raw material calcium carbide market has a small increase, and the PVC industry startup rate is expected to decline slightly. Social inventory has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [58] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market atmosphere has cooled, with prices falling in some regions. The spot is at a large premium to futures, and the basis has fallen from a high level. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has shrunk significantly. Supply is generally stable, and downstream demand is average [59][60] - **Urea**: The spot market atmosphere is stable, with prices rising. The spot is at a small premium to futures, and the basis has converged. The startup rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. Downstream demand has improved slightly [61]

期货研究院 铁合金日度策略 黑色建材团队 摘要 【重要资讯】 1.美国洛杉矶局势继续恶化。约700名美国海军陆战队士兵将部署 至洛杉矶地区，这数量较之前进一步增多。有美媒指出，派遣海军 陆战队整个营前往洛杉矶，标志着特朗普政府以军事力量向抗议者 进行武力展示行动的显著升级。 2.中钢协：维护产业链整体利益 共同抵制"内卷式"竞争。5月份 ，部分车企再次大幅下调新能源汽车产品价格，新一轮"价格战" 的恐慌情绪在汽车行业弥漫开来。中国汽车工业协会迅速发布《关 于维护公平竞争秩序、促进行业健康发展的倡议》，强调"'价格 战'严重影响企业正常经营，冲击产业链供应链安全，把产业发展 带入恶性循环"。 3.新华社：从日内瓦到伦敦，朝着对话合作相向而行。6月9日13时 左右，英国伦敦。全球媒体聚光灯前，中美经贸代表团走进兰卡斯 特宫，开启了中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。近一个月前，5月10日 至11日，瑞士日内瓦，中美举行经贸高层会谈并发布联合声明，一 致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，迈出通过对话协商解决经贸问题的 重要一步。 4.6月10日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格下跌10元/吨，低硫主焦精煤A 9、S0.5、V20、G85出厂价现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Soybean No. 1**: The price in the Northeast market is stable, with tight supply in the producing areas. The demand in the consumer areas is weak. The 07 contract is recommended for short - term observation, with key pressure at 4170 - 4200 yuan/ton and support at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Peanut**: The short - term price fluctuates. The 10 - contract has support at 8244 - 8280 and pressure at 8520 - 8528. New - season peanut acreage is expected to increase slightly year - on - year [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe, with support at 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton and pressure at 7850 - 7900 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory is high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term. The 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 8800 - 8810 and pressure at 9390 - 9399 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term price fluctuates. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels. The 09 contract has support at 7928 - 7980 and pressure at 8332 - 8376 [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The supply - side negative factors are still at play, but it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. The 09 contract is recommended for light - position long - term trials, with support at 2930 - 2940 and pressure at 3100 - 3150 [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 2648 - 2509 and pressure at 2637 - 2649 [12]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The 07 contract has support at 2290 - 2300 and pressure at 2430 - 2450 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. The 07 contract has support at 2640 - 2650 and pressure at 2790 - 2800 [12]. - **Live Pigs**: The 09 contract is in a weak state at a low level. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips, with a reference range of 13000 - 13500 [12]. - **Eggs**: The 07 contract is recommended to close the previous short - 7 - long - 9 position at low levels and then observe. Consider a rebound after an extreme decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: Different varieties have different market logics. For example, soybean meal is expected to bottom out and rebound, while rapeseed oil is expected to decline weakly. Corresponding trading strategies are given for each variety [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage**: For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage of different commodities, different strategies such as waiting and positive/negative arbitrage are recommended [13][14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil for different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It presents the import costs of corn from different countries and months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and other data of corn and corn starch [19]. - **Livestock Farming**: It provides daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, sales, and profit data [21][23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, as well as prices of related products such as piglets and chicken eggs [26][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, export, inventory, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil data [35][37][39] - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic soybean oil data [43][44] - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, and processing data [50][52] - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn inventory, sales progress, import volume, and processing profit [54][56][57] - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [59][60] - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, and inventory [61][63][65] - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth, inventory, and other data [72][74] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various commodities [75][76] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipts for various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn [78][79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main issue with coking coal is the continuous increase in domestic supply, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although there is a marginal improvement in demand expectations in the next two months due to the extension of the window period for export and re - export, the price may still decline. - Coke has a stronger expectation of price decline due to the weak performance of terminal finished products and the continuous concession of raw materials. The low inventory of coking plants provides some support, but the weakness of coking coal drives the price of coke down [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For coking coal, the short - term trend is weak. After a rebound, short positions can be taken on rallies. For coke, range trading is recommended, buying near the support level and shorting after rising [4][5][12]. - **Domestic Prices**: In the futures market, under the bearish pattern, coking coal and coke had a slight rebound but were still suppressed by the loose supply - demand situation. J2509 closed at 1417.50 (up 10.00), and JM2509 closed at 842.00 (up 3.50). In the domestic spot market, the prices of various grades of coke and coking coal remained stable compared to the previous day [12]. - **Import Prices**: The price of Mongolian coal decreased, with Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to 785.00 yuan/ton. The prices of other imported coals remained stable, and the cost - performance of US coal was still not high [17]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of coke was - 41.78, the basis of Shanxi coking coal warehouse receipt was 242.50, and the basis of Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipt was 39.00 [20]. Second Part: Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% from the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily output of independent coking plants and steel mills' coke also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory in six ports was 306.09 tons, with a change of 8.28 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants was 884.93 tons, a decrease of 31.69 tons. The coking coal inventory in steel mills was 791.21 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons. The coke inventory in four ports was 225.11 tons, a decrease of 3.97 tons. The coke inventory in coking plants was 94.31 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons. The coke inventory in steel mills was 663.80 tons, a decrease of 7.23 tons [25]. Third Part: Spreads No specific numerical analysis of spreads was provided in the report, but relevant spread charts were presented, including spreads between different contract months of coking coal and coke, and the ratios of coking coal to coke, coke to iron ore, and coke to rebar [35][36][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The results of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, with the US reducing tariffs on China. The terminal's window period for rush exports and re - exports has been extended, and the demand expectation for the next two months has improved marginally [5]. - The situation of the Suez Canal has changed, with a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships starting from May 15, aiming to boost traffic and revenue [4]. - Wall Street banks and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citi have postponed their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. - For coking coal, the domestic supply is increasing, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although it benefits from tariff reduction in the short term, there is still pressure on the price after the rebound [5]. - For coke, steel mills have started the first round of price cuts in May. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term strategy is to go short on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 1. Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke showed weak performance after rebounding. The J2509 contract of coke closed at 1472.00 (unchanged), and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 883.00 (unchanged) [13]. - Domestic Spot: The prices of first - grade and second - grade coke in Tangshan, and quasi - first - grade and first - grade coke in Rizhao remained unchanged. The prices of medium - sulfur and low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang and Anze also remained unchanged [14]. 2. Import Prices - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton to 820.00 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal remained unchanged at 1015.00 yuan/ton. The prices of some imported coals such as Peak Downs (CFR) and Peak North (CFR) increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [18]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 1. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily average output of coke in independent coking plants and 247 steel mills also had corresponding changes [23]. 2. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in six ports decreased by 13.97 tons to 297.81 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 42.66 tons to 916.62 tons, while the coking coal inventory in steel mills increased by 2.42 tons to 787.21 tons. The coke inventory in four ports decreased by 9.04 tons to 229.08 tons, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased by 4.52 tons to 94.44 tons, and the coke inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.19 tons to 671.03 tons [26]. Part 3: Price Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the document, only figures related to price spreads are listed [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has changed with tariff adjustments, trade situation improvement, and shipping fee discounts. The black market is in a weak state with only short - term rebounds, not reversals. For manganese silicon, it may rebound in the short - term but is expected to decline after reaching a peak. For silicon iron, it is still in a weak position, and a short - term long - position can be considered after a decline [5][7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Trading Strategies and Futures - Spot Market Conditions - **Trading Strategies**: For manganese silicon, use range - bound operations with short - selling on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5900 - 5920 yuan/ton. For silicon iron, mainly use range - bound operations, try short - term long - positions after a decline and short - sell on rebounds, with support at 5400 - 5420 yuan/ton and resistance at 5700 - 5720 yuan/ton [6][8][14] - **Futures - Spot Market Conditions**: The opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, settlement price, open interest, and other data of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures contracts are provided [14] 3.2 Second Part: Ferroalloy Fundamentals 3.2.1 Weekly Production and Demand - **Production**: Relevant charts show the weekly production values of silicon manganese and silicon iron [18] - **Demand**: Charts display the weekly demand values of silicon manganese and silicon iron, and the daily average pig iron production also affects the demand for ferroalloys [22][23] 3.2.2 Ferroalloy Inventory - Charts show the national ending inventory and inventory days of silicon manganese and silicon iron [24][27][29] 3.2.3 Ferroalloy Production Cost - Relevant charts present the spot production cost and profit of silicon manganese and silicon iron, as well as the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [31][35][39] 3.3 Third Part: Option Strategies 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall manganese silicon options on May 16, 2025 are provided [40] 3.3.2 Silicon Iron Options - The trading volume, change, open interest, change, turnover, change, and relevant ratios of call options, put options, and overall silicon iron options on May 16, 2025 are provided [42]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In April 2025, the escalation of Sino-US tariffs put pressure on commodities, but agricultural products were relatively resilient, and the pig market was less directly affected. The far - end breeding cost was difficult to further reduce, and the spot price was stable due to the end of the seasonal off - season [3]. - In 2025, the pig slaughter volume increased year - on - year, but the pressure was not significant. The production efficiency of sows improved, but the overall increase in the number of breeding sows was limited [4]. - From May to June 2025, the probability of pig prices falling below the breeding cost is low. The feed cost is difficult to decline, and the upstream of the pig industry has not accumulated excessive risks [5]. - In the context of the expected increase in pig supply in the first half of 2025, attention should be paid to whether there are unexpected changes in the demand side. It is advisable to go long on pig futures when the price is below 13,000 points or buy call options near the cost [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Prices in April 2025 - The escalation of Sino - US tariffs in April injected positive factors into the feed and breeding industry chain, with feed raw materials leading the rise in agricultural products [8]. - Pig futures prices opened high and closed low in April, and the 2505 contract made up for the premium to the spot. The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at historical lows, and the ratio of pig to feed on the disk is close to historical lows [10][12][15]. - In April, the price of 7 - kg weaned piglets stopped rising and adjusted, the price of fattening pigs fell, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs inverted. The price of feed oscillated and rose, and the terminal consumption improved marginally [17][20][21]. - The spot price of pigs in the second quarter is prone to seasonal strength, with an average increase probability of 62% - 82% from May to August in the past [39]. 2. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows has increased by about 5% compared with March 2024. The prices of culled sows and replacement sows remained stable in April [42][43]. - The production efficiency of single - sow has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. Pig slaughter volume in May 2025 continued to increase due to the recovery of sow production capacity and improved production efficiency [45][49]. 3. Situation of Listed Pig Enterprises - In April, the slaughter volume of leading group companies decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales volume of piglets of listed companies decreased month - on - month, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high [54][55][58]. 4. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In April 2025, the price difference between standard and fat pigs rebounded rapidly, and the price of fat pigs was lower than that of standard pigs. The slaughter weight in May is likely to fall seasonally and is currently at a historical high [62][65]. - The slaughter volume in May decreased seasonally but was higher than the same period last year, and the supply of standard pigs in the market was sufficient. The import volume of pork and offal decreased from the high level, and the expected import volume of beef in the second quarter will decline month - on - month [68][71][74]. - The frozen product inventory rebounded slightly from the low level in April. The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In April, both purchased piglets and self - breeding and self - raising were profitable, but the profit level decreased slightly [77][80][81]. 5. Pig Futures Price and Market Outlook - In April, pig futures prices opened high and closed low, and near - month contracts were more resilient than far - month contracts. The pig index is at a historical low, and the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year [87][88]. - The 2505 contract rebounded from the low level in April to make up for the premium to the spot. The near - month contract is priced near the breeding cost, and the far - month contract has a low premium in the peak season [92][93][96]. - The basis is stronger than the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to the regression mode of pig spot and futures in the second quarter. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage [99][102]. - In May, attention should be paid to the possible slaughter pressure when the weight is too high. The market volatility in the second quarter is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the systematic fluctuations in the agricultural product sector caused by Trump's tariff policy [107][108].

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

期货研究院 股指期货日度策略报告 Stock Index Futures Strategy Daily Report 金融衍生品研究中心 | 作者： | 李彦森 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3050205 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0013871 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518392 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【行情复盘】 周一股指上行步伐有所加快，沪指收涨0.82%。期指主力合约也全 面走升。成交持仓方面，四个品种成交持仓均上升，市场情绪有所 好转。 【重要资讯】 行业来看，31个一级行业大多数上涨，行业涨跌差异上升，结合行 业在指数中所占权重看，非银金融对300和50带动最强，电力设备 带动300，国防军工、电子带动500和1000，医药生物是四大指数 主要拖累。资金方面，主要指数资金全面流入。消息面上看，央行 今日公开市场操作净投放流动性430亿元，短端资金成本小幅下降 。消息显示，中美关税谈判取得突破性进展，双方联合声明确认将 4月2日后增量关税降至 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily strategy for ferroalloys, covering manganese silicon (MnSi) and ferrosilicon (FeSi), including market logic, trading strategies, and option strategies [1][3][4] - It also presents ferroalloy fundamentals such as weekly production and demand, inventory, and production costs [14] Group 2: Important News - On May 12, 2025, the US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods to 30% and 10% respectively [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan would not reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US without including automobile tariffs and was considering increasing corn imports from the US [1] - From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%, breaking through the 10 million mark for the first time [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon (MnSi) Market Logic - The weak overall expectation for the black metal sector remains unchanged. The easing of tariffs only affects the decline rate and raises the pressure level, but it is only a rebound, not a reversal [3] - Since manganese ore is mainly imported, the rebound amplitude of MnSi may be relatively high. Although hot metal production remains at a high level of about 2.46 million tons, the upward space is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak and decline in a few weeks, which will put pressure on ferroalloy demand again [3] - Despite a significant reduction in MnSi production, the factory inventory is still increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is relatively large, almost doubling compared to the same period last year, which also restricts the upward space [3] Trading Strategy - The market sentiment has eased, and manganese ore may drive MnSi to continue to rebound, but it is expected to peak and decline later. In the short term, use range trading, sell high after the rebound, and buy low when it falls to a low level. Pay attention to the support at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at 5,960 - 5,980 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of MnSi call options was 114,839, an increase of 33,431, and the trading volume of put options was 61,613, an increase of 17,633. The trading volume PCR was 0.54 [40] Group 4: Ferrosilicon (FeSi) Market Logic - The Sino-US statement exceeded expectations, with a significant reduction in tariffs, and the warming macro sentiment drove commodities up. However, the black metal sector still faces pressure after the rebound, and it is only a rebound, not a reversal [4] - Currently, the main contract of FeSi has switched to 07. Due to the premium of the far-month contract, the main contract has a larger increase, but its cost may continue to decline, so its later decline may be greater than that of MnSi [4] - After the production reduction of ferroalloy plants, the output has decreased, and the factory inventory of FeSi has started to decline, but the inventory on the futures market has increased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively high [4] - The daily hot metal production is 2.45 million tons, with limited upward space and weak sustainability. There is an expectation of a decline in a few weeks. Once the hot metal weakens, the cost may drive the FeSi price to continue to decline [4] Trading Strategy - Although the supply of FeSi has shrunk, the demand increase is limited. The short-term rebound cannot change the overall pattern. Pay attention to the support at around 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at around 5,700 - 5,720 yuan/ton [5] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of FeSi call options was 83,349, an increase of 54,852, and the trading volume of put options was 35,812, an increase of 17,007. The trading volume PCR was 0.43 [44] Group 5: Ferroalloy Fundamentals Weekly Production and Demand - The report shows charts of weekly production, demand, and hot metal production for MnSi and FeSi [15][17][19] Inventory - The report presents charts of inventory and inventory days for MnSi and FeSi [21][24][27] Production Costs - The report provides charts of spot production costs and profits for MnSi and FeSi, as well as the average price of semi-coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [29][34][39]