Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 沪铜主力合约 夜盘收盘价 CU2602 99220 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 3.2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2603 夜盘收于 99340 元/吨，涨幅 3.3%。截止北京时间 20 25-12-31 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 HGH26E 收盘价为 5.7465 美元/磅（按汇率 换算为 铜主力合约 6.9901 88555 元/吨），较上一交易日上涨 3.16%。LME CA03M | | | | | E 收于 12673.5 美元/吨（按汇率 6.9901 换算为 88589 元/吨），涨幅 3.99%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 8 元至 1743 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The report is from Green大华 Futures Research Institute, with the date of December 31, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Ji Xiaoyun, with the qualification number F3066027 for practice and Z0011402 for trading consultation [1] - The contact information is 010 - 56711796 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium to long - term due to increasing domestic sugar production and overseas supply pressure [1] - The jujube market has limited upside potential in the medium to long - term, despite short - term signs of stabilization [4] - The rubber market may face a correction in the short - term, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [5] 3. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: SR605 contract closed at 5258 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.10%, and 5244 yuan/ton at night [1] - **Important Information**: Guangxi spot price rose 10 yuan/ton; India's 2026 January sugar quota decreased by 50,000 tons; Thailand's sugar production decreased by 15.83% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts increased by 144 [1] - **Market Logic**: ICE raw sugar faced upward pressure after previous positive news was digested; the domestic sugar market is dull with bearish medium - to - long - term expectations due to increasing new sugar supply [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see during the holiday, reduce previous long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options [1] Jujube - **Market Performance**: CJ605 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56% [4] - **Important Information**: Sample jujube inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week, Hebei's wholesale price decreased, Guangdong's market arrivals increased, and warehouse receipts increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Inventory is in the seasonal destocking period but remains high; there are few medium - to - long - term positive factors, and short - term trading is expected to be range - bound [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in CJ605 contract and wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants [4] Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2605 contract closed at 15670 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; NR2602 contract closed at 12690 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase; BR2602 contract closed at 11565 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [5] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices were stable, Qingdao rubber inventory increased, tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and rubber prices were mostly stable [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions, port inventory accumulation, and potential decline in tire production; synthetic rubber price upward momentum may be hindered by a stalemate in the spot market and the drag of natural rubber [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the rubber sector and consider taking profits on previous long positions [5]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏 多 | 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 27 元至 2226 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格上涨 32 元至 2182 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 37592 手至 49.7 万手，空 头持仓增加 4063 手至 57.9 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨，较上一期数据增加 19.37 吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 20.77 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.40 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 40.40 万吨，较上期增加 1.28 万吨，环比增 3.28%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 1119.5 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.94%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1715.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.05%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘收盘持平。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1706.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.5%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 1、2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备 更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。 2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、上周（12 | 月 | 22 | 日-12 | 月 | 28 | 日），10 | 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积 | 总计 | 293.66 | 万平方米，环比增长 | 31.6%，同比下降 | 27.7%。 | | 2、据 | Mysteel | 不完全整理，2025 | 年超 | 130 | 个钢铁项目开工或投产。 | 3、2026 | 年国补方案 ...

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 6 元至 6052 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6035 元/吨 （+0），华南瓶片价格 6080 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 2890 手至 5.35 万手，空头持仓增加 2242 手至 5.69 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、各大机构对需求前景仍不乐观，叠加西方节日气氛导致交易清淡的影响仍在，国 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Report's Core View - ICE US cotton futures declined slightly, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.32 cents, a 0.05% drop. As the New Year's Day approaches, market sentiment is cautious, leading to some profit - taking on previous long positions in Zhengzhou cotton. Fundamentally, the expected supply pressure is alleviated, and the positive impact of the new - year subsidy policy is gradually digested. Coupled with the high - level hedging pressure, multiple factors are suppressing the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton, which is expected to remain volatile in the short term. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month at 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month at 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 664,198 lots and an open interest of 1,149,796 lots. The settlement prices were 14,530 yuan/ton for January, 14,485 yuan/ton for May, and 14,670 yuan/ton for September [2] 3.2 Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% month - on - month decrease from 1,822 tons and a 28.3% year - on - year decrease from 2,374 tons. From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease compared to 9,912 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - From December 12th to 18th, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of 2025/26 cotton, with 83.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. By the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2.4243 million tons, with 82.7% meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of 2025/26 Indian cotton was about 42,000 tons. The CCI sold about 72,000 tons through auctions, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the 19th and 1,003 tons the previous day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with a strike price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, partially close out long futures positions, and it is recommended to stay in cash during the holiday [2]