Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report advises to view the jujube futures price from a bullish perspective in the near term, suggesting to continue holding long positions in the CJ601 contract and be cautious about the position limit and expiration risks of the CJ509 contract. For the long - term, it recommends waiting for the end of the opening - price game and then shorting the CJ605 contract opportunistically [1][2]. 2) Core Viewpoints The current jujube market is in a state of production game. The spot price in the sales area is rising steadily, and the futures price is oscillating upwards. The market's focus is on the supply side, with significant differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the futures price to break through and rise. The CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Spot Market - Xinjiang jujubes have entered the swelling period, and some first - crop fruits are starting to turn red. Last week, the spot sales in the sales area accelerated. The spot price in Cangzhou was stable with an upward trend, and the prices of high - quality goods were gradually strengthening. The average prices of super - grade and first - grade jujubes were 10.12 yuan/kg and 9.15 yuan/kg respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and 0.32 yuan/kg [1]. Futures Market - Recently, the jujube futures price has been oscillating upwards, breaking through the previous high pressure level last Friday. The market's trading focus is still on the supply side, and there are large differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The total open interest of jujube futures increased to more than 230,000 lots on Friday, remaining at a historical high, indicating intense long - short contradictions. The market recognizes the expected reduction in new - season jujube production due to adverse weather in June - July, but there are large disputes over the reduction range. The disputes over production will ultimately shift to the expected game of the new - season opening price. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the recent steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the jujube futures price to break through and rise. Technically, the CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the given report 2) Core View of the Report - Since August, the Apple 10 contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, with the AP2510 contract up 1.27% as of the 11th. The quality differentiation of early - maturing apples has led to concerns about the quality of deliverable Fuji apples. The market is in a state where long and short factors are intertwined, and the futures market shows a volatile pattern [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Apple Futures Market Performance - The Apple 10 contract has been rising for multiple consecutive trading days in August, and the AP2510 contract had a 1.27% increase as of August 11th [3] Situation of Early - Maturing Apples - In the western producing areas, the early - maturing Gala apples have been gradually listed. Due to high - temperature weather, there are problems such as difficult coloring, and the large - scale listing time is expected to be delayed compared with previous years. In the Shandong producing area, the current supply of Luli apples is average, and the trading price is stable. Some early - maturing apple varieties in Shandong and high - quality paper - bagged Gala apples in Shaanxi have higher listing prices than last year. However, due to climate factors, the proportion of high - quality apples has decreased, and the mainstream price has shown a downward trend after the high - price start [3] Forecast of New - Season Apple Yield and Price - The preliminary estimate of the new - season apple yield shows a limited reduction. The reference range for the opening price is 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty (equivalent to 7,500 - 8,500 yuan per ton). Under normal climate conditions in major producing areas, the spot price has a bottom support, but the upside is limited [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 11 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、纽约联储 7 月的调查显示，人们对未来一年的通胀预期从 6 月的 3%升至 3.1%。 7 月份有更多消费者愿意主动离职，认为未来三个月内能找到工作的几率略有上升。 2、至 7 月 26 日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数升至 197.4 万，创 2021 年 11 月 | | | | | 以来新高，表明就业美国市场降温，强化 9 月降息预期。截至 8 月 2 日当周，首申 | | | | | 人数略增至 22.6 万但长期稳定。企业不愿再招新员工，但也没急着裁员。 | | | | | 3、美国信用卡债务在 6 月份下降了 10 多亿美元，连续第二个月下降。麦当劳 CEO ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Export Surpasses Expectations, Prices Linger at Low Levels, Treasury Bond Futures May Continue to Fluctuate" - Report Date: August 9, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact Information: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Qualification Certificate Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The 7 - month export growth is better than expected, but likely to slow down. July's CPI is flat and PPI is down, with overall prices at a low level. Residents tend to save more. The stock market's changes will affect the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a suggestion to consider buying on dips [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.19%, the 10 - year rose 0.18%, the 5 - year rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% [5]. - As of August 8, compared with August 1, the 2 - year and 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 3BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, while the 30 - year yield increased by 1BP [7]. 3.2 Foreign Trade Data - In July, China's exports in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.8%, and imports increased by 4.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. The trade surplus was $98.24 billion. From January to July, exports increased by 6.1% year - on - year [10]. - In July, exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6%, to the EU by 9.2%, and to the US decreased by 21.7%. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five continued to grow at a high rate [12][15]. 3.3 Price Data - In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1%, and rose 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while non - food prices increased [18][20]. - In July, PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.4%, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Production and living material prices both decreased [26][28]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline slightly this week after reaching a high on July 25 [31]. 3.4 Economic Survey Data - In the second - quarter urban depositor survey, the future income confidence index and employment expectation index both declined compared with the first quarter [33]. - In the second - quarter survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" increased, while those inclined to "more consumption" decreased [35]. 3.5 Capital Market Data - After the month - end, this week's capital interest rates remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, DR007 was 1.45%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate was 1.63%, lower than last week [38]. 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - **Market Logic**: The central government emphasizes policy efforts, the 7 - month export is better than expected but likely to slow, prices are low, and residents tend to save more. The stock market affects the bond market, and treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [41].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of gold in New York has reached a record high due to the impact of US tariffs and rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The gold and silver futures contracts in both New York and the domestic market have shown an upward trend [5]. - The new US tariff policy on gold will generate an additional cost of about $24 billion, directly increasing the physical delivery cost and affecting the liquidity of the futures market [5]. - The spread between international gold futures and spot prices has reached a record high, and the gold inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has also hit a new high, so investors should pay attention to the futures premium risk [5]. Summary by Relevant Content - **Market Performance**: As of 10:00 today, the main contract of New York gold rose 1.09% to $3491.8 per ounce, and the main contract of New York silver rose 0.47% to $38.475 per ounce. The domestic market also strengthened, with the main contract of Shanghai gold rising 0.38% to 786.40 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rising 0.73% to 9268 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US Customs and Border Protection Bureau (CBP) ruled on July 31 that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars would be included in the taxable code, and the relevant tariffs took effect on August 7. This will hit Switzerland, the world's largest gold refining center, and may generate about $24 billion in additional tariff costs [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a short - term oscillating trend. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it's difficult to reach new highs in the short term, and the market will mainly oscillate. For iron ore, although the daily pig iron output has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level above 2.4 million tons, which restricts the downside space [5]. - Short - term trading is recommended as the market is in a short - term oscillating state [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Conditions - Rebar and hot - rolled coils: The main contracts are shifting positions. Due to high - temperature and heavy - rain weather, demand is still weak. According to Zhaogang.com data, this week, the production and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, while inventory increased, with obvious restocking. The RB2510 contract has a pressure level of 3300 and a support level of 3150. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3300, and the pressure level is 3550. The main stainless - steel contract has a pressure level of 13200 and a support level of 12650 [5]. - Iron ore: The daily pig iron output this week was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons compared to the previous week. Although it decreased, it remains above 2.4 million tons, restricting the downside space. The pressure level for the main iron - ore contract has moved down to 835, and the support level is 750 [5]. Important News - The US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, making the total tariff rate reach 50%, and the new 25% tariff will take effect in 21 days [13]. - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease in daily output; and 23 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase in daily output [13]. - The Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan", aiming to complete the reconstruction and construction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads nationwide by 2027 [13]. - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons compared to the previous ten - day period, a 5.6% decrease; an increase of 2.41 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, a 19.5% increase; a decrease of 0.67 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of the previous month, a 4.3% decrease; a decrease of 1.27 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of last year, a 7.9% decrease; and an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to the same ten - day period of the year before last, a 2.0% increase [13]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating that the recovery momentum of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared to the previous month and continued to operate weakly [13]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", supporting mining enterprises to increase reserves and production of important minerals and improve the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [14]. - On July 30, the 11th Council (Expanded) Meeting of the 6th China Iron and Steel Association was held in Beijing, focusing on in - depth discussions around "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening cooperation, and promoting transformation" [14]. Steel Supply and Inventory - This week, the steel supply decreased slightly. The total steel supply was 8.6921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; the total inventory was 13.7536 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2347 million tons [15][16]. - Rebar: This week, the supply was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1012 million tons; the total inventory was 5.6668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1039 million tons, a decrease rate of 0.9%; the apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous period. The apparent demand increased by 0.0738 million tons to 2.1079 million tons [18]. - Hot - rolled coils: This week, the supply was 3.1489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.079 million tons; the total inventory increased by 0.0868 million tons to 3.5663 million tons; the apparent demand decreased by 0.1379 million tons to 3.0621 million tons [18]. - Rebar inventory contradiction is not prominent. This week, rebar's factory inventory, social inventory, and total inventory increased. For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory and total inventory increased, showing restocking behavior [20][21]. Pig Iron and Iron Ore - This week, the daily pig iron output was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons compared to the previous week. Although it decreased, it remains at a relatively high level above 2.4 million tons, restricting the downside space of iron ore [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will further diversify and internationalize China's futures market, and provide new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - In 2025, the total global platinum supply is expected to decrease by 4% year - on - year to 218 tons, mainly due to a 6% decline in mineral supply, while the increase in recycled supply is limited [3] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly affected by power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The current price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - The recycling supply of platinum is an important supplement, but it has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles [15] 3. Summary by Directory I. Overall Situation of Platinum Production and Supply - Platinum exists in the market mainly as platinum ingots (purity usually 99.95%, used for investment and reserves) and sponge platinum (used in industries). The global platinum supply comes from mining and recycling, and has been relatively stable in recent years [2] - In 2024, the global total platinum supply was 730,000 ounces (about 227 tons), a 2.4% year - on - year increase. It is predicted that in 2025, the total supply will drop to 218 tons (about 700,000 ounces), with a 6% decline in mineral supply and a slight increase in recycling supply [2][3] II. Mineral Supply - Platinum is often a by - product in mining, and its refining process is complex. Global platinum reserves are highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for 88.73% [5] - The top four mining oligarchs controlled 88% of the global platinum production in 2024, forming a global monopoly system [6] - The global platinum mineral supply has been contracting since 2016, mainly due to power shortages, maintenance delays, rising costs, and reduced capital expenditure. The price - cost inversion has further constrained supply [9][10] - Key platinum mines include the Bushveld Complex in South Africa, the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe, the Norilsk Nickel Mine in Russia, and the Stillwater and East Boulder Mines in the US [12][13] III. Recycling Supply - Recycled platinum accounts for 20% - 30% of the total global supply, with North America and Europe leading the market. The industry is developing more advanced recycling technologies [15] - The supply of recycled platinum has shown price rigidity in the short - to - medium term, and its volume is mainly driven by vehicle scrapping cycles. It has declined since 2020 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Funds continue to flow into the A-share market, and the wealth effect of the stock market is spreading. The government's tax policies on bond interest and overseas stock investment income are driving funds to shift from the bond market to the A-share market. The growth style is spreading, and the CSI 1000 Index has reached a new high since last October. The continuous inflow of funds in the medium term will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [4][6][8][9]. - China's export situation is improving, with the export amount and growth rate increasing, and the export price index returning to the expansion line. The import amount and growth rate are also rising, indicating an increase in domestic demand [25][28][31][40]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has increased significantly, and the US economy shows signs of inflation and inventory replenishment [43][49][53]. - The eurozone has cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion plan is expected to boost the eurozone's manufacturing industry [55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned above 3600 points, and the CSI 1000 Index has reached a new high since last October. The growth style is spreading [4][9]. - In July, there were 1.9636 million new A-share accounts opened, a year-on-year increase of 70.5% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27%. The margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a continuous influx of funds [11][13]. - The government's tax policies on bond interest and overseas stock investment income are driving funds to shift from the bond market to the A-share market [6][8]. 3.2 Trading Strategies - Futures trading: The Shanghai Composite Index may have completed the retracement confirmation after breaking through 3500 points, and the daily technical indicators still need to be repaired. The continuous inflow of funds in the medium term will drive the stock market upward, and the market has shifted to a growth style [11]. - Options trading: With the continuous inflow of funds, investors can consider buying out-of-the-money long-term call options on growth-style stock indices [12]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 reached 4.6%, indicating an acceleration of currency activation, which is beneficial to the upward movement of the stock market [22]. - In July, China's export amount was $321.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, up from 5.8% previously. The export price index in June was 100.5, returning to the expansion line [25][28][31]. - In July, China's import amount was $223.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, indicating an increase in domestic demand [40]. 3.4 International Economic Situation - The US May and June non-farm payroll data have been significantly revised downward, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claims in the US reached a new high since the end of 2021 in the week ending July 26, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut [43][46]. - In July, the US manufacturing PMI price index continued to rise, and the service PMI price increased at an accelerated pace. The retail and food sales in the US in June were $720.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer demand [49][51]. - The US wholesalers' inventory year-on-year growth rate was 1.4% in May, and the manufacturers' inventory year-on-year growth rate was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [53]. - The eurozone has cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, and Germany plans to expand its military by 30%, which is expected to boost the eurozone's manufacturing industry [55].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美联储9月可能降息50个基点 2025年8月8日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 中国作强国内大循环，中国7月出口增长7.2%。马士基Q2业绩超预期，北美进口的萎缩被欧洲、拉丁美洲、 西亚和中亚以及非洲进口的强劲增长大大抵消。美国统计局大幅下修非农就业数据，是为美联储9月重启降息进 行造势。市场预期美联储9月可能降息50个基点，并且在2026年加速降息。中国综合整治内卷式竞争，有望提振 相关行业上市公司业绩。欧洲央行已降息8次，德国扩军30%，有望推动欧洲经济增长。美国政府发布《AI行动计 划》，Meta准备砸数千亿美元建设大型数据中心。 全球经济保持上行方向。 美国5月、6月非农就业数据大幅下修，美储联9月降息50个基点概率大增 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 202 -01 202 -03 202 -05 202 ...