Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下 跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周三央行开展了 5288 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 260 亿元逆 回购到期，当日合计净投放 5028 亿元。1 月 4 日央行开展 365 亿元 7 天逆回购操作， | | | | | 当日日有 2701 亿元 7 天期和 2000 亿元 14 天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼 4336 | | | | | 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：跨年之后，1 月 4 日银行间市场正常交易，资金利率全线回落，DR001 | | | | | 全天加权平均为 1.24%；DR007 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 5 日星期周一 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 31 日，元旦假期前，植物油走势整体谨慎，全日振荡走势为主。 豆油主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, with geographical diversification starting to take effect. It is recommended to stay invested and strengthen diversified allocation [2]. - China's stock market cycle is transitioning from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. Corporate profits may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - In 2026, the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market is much higher than a significant fall, and there are multiple positive factors in the Chinese market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Morning Session Notice - **Market Performance**: On the last trading day before the holiday, some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance, causing adjustments in some indices. The aerospace sector rose again. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.04 trillion yuan with a moderate decline. The CSI 500 index closed at 7465 points, up 6 points (0.09%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7595 points, down 2 points (- 0.02%); the SSE 50 index closed at 3031 points, down 5 points (- 0.18%); and the CSI 300 index closed at 4629 points, down 21 points (- 0.46%). The funds in stock index futures of CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 5.4 billion, 4.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. - **Sector and ETF Performance**: Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETF, general aviation ETF, etc. led the gains, while dual - innovation ETF, energy - storage battery ETF, etc. led the losses. Among sector indices of the two markets, hotel catering, cloud gaming, etc. led the gains, and chemical fiber, communication equipment, etc. led the losses [1]. Important Information - Policy: The 'Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Updating and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026' was issued, and the 'Announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Launching the Pilot of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds' was released [1]. - Market Trends in 2025: The STAR 100 index rose 54.63%, the ChiNext index rose 49.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.87%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41%. The total market value of A - shares reached 118.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.30 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. Precious metal prices such as gold (+65%), silver (+148%), etc. rose significantly, and the number and overseas authorization transaction amount of approved innovative drugs in China reached record highs [1][2]. - Company News: TSMC's 2nm process was mass - produced as planned and its stock price hit a record high; Samsung Electronics' stock rose 7.2% due to the recognition of HBM4 products. Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased by 16% year - on - year, while BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased [1][2]. - International News: High - profile companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have high valuations. The US launched air strikes on Venezuela, and Venezuela declared a state of emergency [2]. Market Logic - Some funds withdrew for risk - avoidance on the last trading day before the holiday, causing index adjustments and a rise in the aerospace sector. High - end investment banks believe that global stock markets are in the 'optimistic stage' of a bull market, and the market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven. There was a net inflow of 83.1 billion US dollars into ETFs investing in Chinese assets in 2025, with the technology sector receiving the most foreign investment. The market expects insurance, wealth management, and pensions to be the incremental funds in 2026, and more international funds are looking at the AI track outside the US [2]. Future Outlook - China's stock market cycle is moving from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. The total scale of listed ETFs in the whole market increased by 56% in 2025. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a key area for global AI investment. The risk of a sharp rise in China's stock market in 2026 is higher than a sharp fall. Overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and the RMB is appreciating. All kinds of funds are expected to enter the market quickly [3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets on the first trading day of January. - For stock index option trading, open call options on the CSI 1000 index when the opportunity arises [3].

市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨0 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价格。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高,需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示: 0 2026年1月4 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进 委内瑞拉"。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市 ...

市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,甲醇尿素预计偏强运行。 2. 基本面情况:2025年1-11月中国进口委内瑞拉甲醇82.1万吨,占比6.5%。目前国内 甲醇港口和内地均累库,1月中旬以后进口到港量预计减少(伊朗8成以上装置停车) 叠加港口烯烃装置重启计划,供减需增预期下甲醇价格震荡偏强,关注地缘冲突实际 影响,建议偏多思路对待。 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,甲醇,尿素开盘预计跟随高开。 2025年1-11月中国出口南美地区尿素68.6万吨(巴西和智利为主),占比14.9%。而委 内瑞拉化肥(尿素和硫酸铵)主要出口巴西,哥伦比亚等地区,预计随着冲突升级国 际化肥价格将迎来上涨,或继续抬升中国出口价格。目前国内尿素企业库存继续下降, 局部受环保预警影响,部分尿素装置减量生产。周末主流尿素工厂最低出厂价1640- 1660元/吨,继续关注地缘冲突实际影响,建议偏多思路对待。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高。需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示:地缘风险事件消除 原油下跌 从业资格 F03085283 交易咨询:Z0019267 联系方式:wuzhigiao@greendh.com 场。未经我公司同意,任何 ...

1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内师行"。 2. 基本面情况:2025年1-11月中国进口委内瑞拉甲醇82.1万吨,占比6.5%。目前国内 甲醇港口和内地均累库,1月中旬以后进口到港量预计减少(伊朗8成以上装置停车) 叠加港口烯烃装置重启计划,供减需增预期下甲醇价格震荡偏强,关注地缘冲突实际 影响,建议偏多思路对待。 2025年1-11月中国出口南美地区尿素68.6万吨(巴西和智利为主),占比14.9%。而委 内瑞拉化肥(尿素和硫酸铵)主要出口巴西,哥伦比亚等地区,预计随着冲突升级国 际化肥价格将迎来上涨,或继续抬升中国出口价格。目前国内尿素企业库存继续下降 局部受环保预警影响,部分尿素装置减量生产。周末主流尿素工厂最低出厂价1640- 1660元/吨,继 ...

> 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内瑞拉"。 市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨 。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市场影响不大。关注美国和委内瑞拉 地缘冲突后续进展,短期瓶片价格跟随原料宽幅震荡偏强,预计涨幅低于原料瑞。 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价 ...

时间：2026.1.4 格林大华期货研究院 能化黑色研究中心 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美委地缘冲突背景下原油/化工/ 焦煤市场影响分析 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 美委冲突背景和经过 据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成 功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞 拉。同日，有美国官员表示，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗于1月3日凌晨被美军最高 特种任务部队三角洲部队的成员抓获。马杜罗被指控犯有"毒品恐怖主义阴 谋罪、可卡因走私阴谋罪、持有机枪及破坏性装置罪，以及针对美国的持有 机枪及破坏性装置阴谋罪"。马杜罗及其夫人将很快在美国法庭接受美国司 法审判。 特朗普表示，美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。 据此前报道，这次空袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称，不排除 美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重 建石油基础设施，将让美国石油公司进入委内瑞拉"。 国际社会纷纷表态谴责美国霸权侵略行为。 来源：公开信息，格林大华期货研究院整理 PART 01 地缘冲突对能化产业影响 | 油价格将产生利 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: 2026 New Year's Day Holiday Market Opening Forecast Report [2] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [3] - Research Institution: Green大华 Futures Research Institute [3] 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The stock index market is expected to have a good start on the first trading day after the New Year's Day holiday, with overseas capital accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets and funds expected to enter the market quickly. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - Precious metals are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [6]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, different varieties have different trends, such as the overall bearish trend of oils, the bottom - oscillating pattern of double - meal, the long - term bearish view of sugar and jujubes, and different support and resistance levels for other varieties [16][17][18][19]. - In the energy and chemical market, the long - term crude oil price may be under bearish pressure, while methanol, urea, bottle chips, and pure benzene are recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and the rubber system can be observed or a small number of BR call options can be held [34][35][36][37]. - In the steel market, it is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried; iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline, and short positions can be pre - arranged; for coking coal and coke, it is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently [55][56][57]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, regional supply shortages will push up copper prices to some extent; aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate around certain prices after the holiday [71][72][73][74]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index - On January 2, the Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.7% and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring 4%, indicating that overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Bullish on growth - style indexes represented by the CSI 500 index [7]. Treasury Bond - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations. The manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the situation. The treasury bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom on the last trading day before the holiday [5][10]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. The CME Group raised the margin for precious metals, and geopolitical risks have increased [6][13]. Agricultural and Livestock Three Oils and Two Meals - Oils: The short - term long positions held before the holiday should be closed, and the overall trend is bearish. Palm oil has a clear bearish trend, domestic soybean oil may be somewhat resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil should be operated bearishly intraday [16][22]. - Double - meal: Affected by factors such as tightened customs policies, the collapse of overseas soybean costs, and the pressure of a bumper harvest in South America, double - meal may decline to some extent but will be supported at the previous low, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [16]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar declined significantly during the holiday. Considering the supply pressure in the international sugar market, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to run weakly after the holiday [26]. - Jujubes: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is turning its attention to demand. The jujube futures price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the near future [26]. Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton: Affected by factors such as holiday trading volume and the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures declined. Considering the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices and its possible transmission to cotton prices, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current position, but the bottom support is strong [29]. - Apple: The overall trading in the apple market is dull, and the snow during the holiday has affected transportation. In the long term, the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate has not been resolved, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [29]. - Log: The supply pressure is controllable, the demand is weaker but better than the same period last year. The low inventory supports the price, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets and the cost limit the downward space. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and interval operations are recommended [29]. Corn, Pig, and Egg - Corn: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend during the holiday. The market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [31]. - Pig: The pig price weakened after the holiday. The near - month contracts are expected to open lower and then repair, and the contracts in the second half of next year may continue to oscillate [31][32]. - Egg: The egg price was stable during the holiday. The futures price is expected to open relatively stable, but the near - month contracts are expected to decline due to the pessimistic expectation of the spot price in February. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts [32]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US intervention in Venezuela's oil production may put downward pressure on long - term oil prices. Although the current geopolitical conflict has caused a certain risk premium, the impact will be diluted by the large supply surplus [34][41]. Methanol and Urea - Methanol: With the expectation of reduced supply and increased demand, the methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][44]. - Urea: The price of international fertilizers may rise due to the conflict, which may drive up China's export price. The domestic urea inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][46]. Bottle Chips and Pure Benzene - Bottle chips: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly following the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela [36][49]. - Pure benzene: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. The 03 contract reference range is 5420 - 5650 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela, the port arrival volume, and the future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [36][51]. Rubber System - It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of BR call options [37]. Steel Steel - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried [55][60]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline. Short positions can be pre - arranged, or a strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore can be tried. The price may be supported by factors such as the increase in daily hot metal production and the expected replenishment of steel mills [56][65]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of price cuts for coke may be implemented on January 1. The coke price mainly fluctuates with the coking coal price. It is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently, and attention should be paid to the main and far - month contracts of coking coal [57][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The regional supply shortage will push up the copper price to some extent. The market's expectation of a 75BP interest rate cut in 2026 is uncertain, which may increase the volatility of the copper price [71][77]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Caustic Soda - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate around 21,990 yuan/ton after the holiday. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion and overseas market transmission [72][80]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate around 3,246 yuan/ton after the holiday, and the policy support is limited [73][80]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend after the holiday, and the trend is likely to be linked to the sentiment of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain [74][79].

研究员：侯建 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话： (010)56711796 根据掌上煤焦提供的288口岸通关数据，截止到12月30日，12月日均通关车辆为1457车，为3年以来的月均最高。从左图不难看出，288 口岸库存与焦煤期货主力合约价格存在较大的负相关关系。右图的月均通关在8月后持续上升，表明蒙媒基本吃到了反内卷政策的红利。 但"已有之事后必再有。已行之事后必再行"。在2025年动力煤价格指数"618-831"政策调控区间的预期下，2026年的乐焦煤现实能。 否站稳,还需要关注进口煤边际定价能力和政策出手的节点。 负责声明，本报告中的信息地来源于公开资枓、我公司的这些信息的这就性彩票推行《作在何报》、不知证报告信息已说最新女更、也不知近分析网站出近任何建议死会发生任何交叉。在任何情况下、报告中的信息或所发达的意见并不如成活出期 娱乐研买卖的比价或价价。在任何情况下，我公司不就报告中的任何内容对任何没奇得就出任何形式的型标、投资者担收投资、投资风险电竞竞吧。我公司可能发出与东招告高7万一颗效期检发告。本报告展份所何本人的意见与结论，并不代表 我公司的立场。未经我公 ...