有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 镍 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，上涨 0.28%至 8714 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 2.05%至 72800 元/吨；国内现货进口窗口打开。宏观方面，美国特朗普政府于 4 月 2 日宣布对进口商 | | | 品全面加征关税，多国采取报复性反制措施，包括中国宣布对美国进口商品征收 34%关 税，这也表明贸易冲突正式升级。市场对全球经济走向衰退风险定价激增，全球股市大 | | | 幅下挫，大宗商品全线走弱。昨晚特朗普再次表态不会暂停关税政策，但暗示可以谈 判。国内方面，关注金融市场表现，股市是国内短线情绪风向标。库存方面，LME 铜 | | | 库存下降 575 吨至 210225 吨；SHFE 铜下降 9136 吨至 116824 吨；BC 铜增加 4431 吨至 | | 铜 | 22958 吨。需求方面，铜价回落，下游开工和订单均有提振，高铜价风险进一步释放 | | | 下，下游预计存在积极补库动作。美对等关税落地，并宣布铜和贵重金属暂不征收对等 | | | 关税后， ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 4.29%，报收 66.08 美分/磅，CF505 下跌 3.25%，报收 13090 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14575 元/吨，较前一日下跌 64 元/吨，中国棉花价 | | | | 格指数 3128B 级为 14815 元/吨，较前一日下降 87 元/吨。国际市场方面，全球市 | | | | 场关注重心仍在于美关税政策，多国寻求与美国进行谈判，目前不确定性仍然较 | | | | 多。昨夜外媒有报道称特朗普将暂缓其关税政策，美股直线拉升，但特朗普随后辟 | | | | 谣。另一方面，据美联储观察工具显示，美联储 5 月降息概率至 57%。预计扰动仍 | | | | 将持续且反复。国内市场方面，节后开盘，清明长假积累的情绪集中释放，沪指跌 | | | | 幅超 7%，创业板指数跌超 12%，多数商品下跌，郑棉跌超 3%。从情绪端来看，目 | | | | 前就是 2024/25 年度最艰难的时刻 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，受关税政策影响，农产品板块整体表现偏强。玉米 5 月合约多空主力继续 | 震荡偏强 | | | 向 7 月合约移仓，7 月逐渐转为主力合约，玉米加权合约持仓下降，在 3 月末玉 | | | | 米期价反弹过程中，玉米减仓上行。现货市场方面，关税上调，玉米进口成本提 | | | | 升。今日华北地区玉米价格延续假期期间的上涨趋势，部分深加工企业玉米价格 | | | 玉米 | 继续上调，但上调幅度有限。基层粮点收购价格价格较清明节前上涨 10-20 元/ | | | | 吨，市场购销相对清淡。清明节假期销区市场玉米价格稳中偏强运行，港口贸易 | | | | 商报价上涨， 市场购销逐步活跃，下游饲料厂采购意愿加强，逢低补库为主。 | | | | 技术上，玉米 7 月合约 2300 元/吨整数关口是近期价格的密集成交区，预计加征 | | | | 关税、农产品情绪转强，现货坚挺，期价获得阶段性支撑，短期价格呈现震荡偏 | | | | 强表现。 | | | 豆粕 | 周一，CB ...

数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-706.82 点，计算机,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨-558.47 点，电力设备,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨-272.06 点，电力设备,电子,非银金融等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨-145.28 点，食品饮料,银行,非银金融等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-04-08 一、指数走势 04 月 07 日，上证综指涨跌幅-7.34%，收于 3096.58 点，成交额 7353.67 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-9.66%，收于 9364.5 点，成交额 8524.32 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-11.39%，成交额 3114.71 亿元，其中开盘价 5811.54，收盘价 5496.44，当日最高价 5905.57，最低价 5437.45； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-9.55%，成交额 2673.97 亿元，其中开盘价 5523.96，收盘价 5287.03，当日最高价 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 3% to 71,060 yuan/ton yesterday. Spot prices for various lithium products remained stable. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,420 tons to 27,023 tons [3] - The growth rate of the supply side has slowed down. The weekly production increased by 307 tons to 17,625 tons, and the estimated production in April is expected to increase by 1.1% to 80,000 tons. The demand remains in the peak season. The production of ternary materials in April is expected to increase by 7% to 62,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 0.7% to 260,000 tons. In the terminal market, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in March reached 1.14 million, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 37%. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 1,477 tons to 129,000 tons, with increases in the upstream and downstream and decreases in other sectors [3] - Overseas macro disturbances have led to a bearish overall market sentiment. Although the short - term basis is relatively strong, the continuous increase in warehouse receipt inventory, the gradual sufficiency of lithium ore supply in the medium term, the slight decline in lithium ore prices, the decrease in costs of most projects during the corporate earnings disclosure season, the decrease in the activity of spot purchases due to the ratio of available/long - term contracts, and the pressure on terminal and cathode inventories all suggest the need to be vigilant about the negative feedback from the demand side. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels for the 07 contract [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2,100 yuan/ton to 71,060 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 2,160 yuan/ton to 70,800 yuan/ton [5] - Lithium Ore: The prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite, all showed a downward trend [5] - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, decreased to varying degrees [5] - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 58,800 yuan/ton. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials remained stable, while others decreased slightly. The prices of some lithium batteries also showed small fluctuations [5] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [7][9][10] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13] 3.2.3 Spreads - Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20] 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][23][25] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from August 2024 to March 2025 [35][36][37] 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica concentrate and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40][41]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 4 月 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 762.5 | 788.5 | -26.0 | I05-I09 | 42.5 | 45.0 | -2.5 | | I09 | 720.0 | 743.5 | -23.5 | I09-I01 | 20.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | | I01 | 699.5 | 721.5 | -22.0 | I01-I05 | -63.0 | -67.0 | 4.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is bearish, and the rating for Treasury bond futures is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 7, the A-share market experienced a significant correction, with the Wind All A index dropping 9.26% and trading volume reaching 1.62 trillion yuan. Sectors such as TMT, machinery, and power equipment were significantly affected by overseas policies and led the decline, while sectors like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and banking had relatively smaller declines. The CSI 1000 index fell 11.39%, and all four futures contracts hit the daily limit down in the afternoon. The CSI 500 dropped 9.55% with four futures contracts hitting the limit down, the SSE 50 fell 5.46%, and the SSE-CSI 300 declined 7.05%. The index opened lower and gradually declined, indicating that the market had previously underestimated the impact of relevant policies. Currently, most heavyweight sectors have fallen back to levels below the beginning of 2025, and it is expected that they will support the index in the next few trading days [1] - Under the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, the weighted tariff rate on Chinese exports to the US may rise to around 66% (12% + 20% + 34%). Additionally, many countries have recently initiated trade negotiations with the US, and it is necessary to monitor whether third countries will use the opportunity of imposing additional tariffs on China to seek tariff reductions from the US. This policy will also have a long-term impact on the A-share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable [1] - Expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have resurfaced today, and the window for the central bank to purchase Treasury bonds may reopen. Strategically, as the implied volatility of stock index options in banks is currently at a historical peak, it is recommended to hold short positions in stock index futures and sell short positions in stock index options of the same expiration month for hedging [1] - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising 1.79%, the 10-year main contract up 0.56%, the 5-year main contract increasing 0.34%, and the 2-year main contract rising 0.13%. The People's Bank of China conducted 93.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.5%. According to Qeubee statistics, 245.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements matured in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 151.7 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the DR001 rate rose 11.99 basis points to 1.7436%, and the DR007 rate increased 4.46 basis points to 1.7427%. After the quarter-end, the liquidity situation has marginally eased, and the center of the DR007 rate has shifted downward. This week, the pressure of maturing open market operations has decreased, and due to a large amount of maturing Treasury bonds, the issuance pressure of government bonds has also declined. Therefore, there is no significant upward pressure on short-term liquidity. Moreover, against the backdrop of rising risk aversion, expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have increased, and the bond market has continued to strengthen [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock index futures: The IH contract closed at 2,441.2, down 8.16% from April 3; the IF contract closed at 3,452.6, down 10.02%; the IC contract closed at 5,236.2, down 10.07%; the IM contract closed at 5,432.6, down 9.93% [3] - Stock indices: The SSE 50 index closed at 2,517.0, down 5.46% from April 3; the SSE-CSI 300 index closed at 3,589.4, down 7.05%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5,287.0, down 9.55%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 5,496.4, down 11.39% [3] - Treasury bond futures: The TS contract closed at 102.68, up 0.14% from April 3; the TF contract closed at 106.48, up 0.33%; the T contract closed at 109.18, up 0.56%; the TL contract closed at 120.80, up 1.73% [3] - Treasury bond yields: The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond was 1.4304%, down 5 basis points from April 3; the 5-year yield was 1.4992%, down 6.11 basis points; the 10-year yield was 1.6330%, down 8.71 basis points; the 30-year yield was 1.8250%, down 8.5 basis points [3] 3.2 Market News - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months. As of the end of March, the gold reserves reached 73.7 million ounces, up from 73.61 million ounces at the end of February [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of selected projects for the 10G optical network pilot. To promote the pilot application of 10G optical networks in an orderly manner, in accordance with the requirements of the "Notice on Carrying out the 10G Optical Network Pilot Project" (Letter No. 3 [2025] of the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), after independent application by various units, local selection and recommendation, and expert evaluation and review, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has determined 168 selected projects for the 10G optical network pilot, including the 10G residential area pilot in Miyun Oak Bay by China Telecom Beijing Company and the 10G industrial park pilot in Beizhong Science and Culture Industrial Park [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock index futures: The report presents the trends of the IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each contract [6][7][8][9][10] - Treasury bond futures: The report shows the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][16][17] - Exchange rates: The report includes the trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续回落，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘下跌 1.29 美元至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.37 美元 | | | | 至 64.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.09%。SC2505 以 477.4 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 32.7 元/桶，跌幅为 6.41%。上周美国超预期关税政策引发市场巨 | | | | 震，周一开盘原油直接封住跌停，夜盘低开。美国总统表示，尽 | | | 原油 | 管渴望避免征税的贸易伙伴纷纷递出橄榄枝但自己并不考虑暂停 | 震荡 | | | 全面实施对等关税，不过他同时也对一些谈判发出了持开放态度 | | | | 的信号。市场担心特朗普关税可能导致企业价格上涨、从而使美 | | | | 国经济活动放缓，最终损害石油需求。当前关税政策的不确定性 | | | | 令市场恐慌情绪加重，同时波动率也大幅提升，但需求冲击的预 | | | | 期下，原油价格来看仍存在走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米主力 2505 合约减仓调整，现货回落，5 月合约多空主力向 7 月合约移 | 震荡 | | | 仓。周初，在北港玉米库存下降的利好因素影响下，玉米 9 月和 11 月合约企稳 | | | | 上行，远月领涨、近月跟涨，7 月合约在重要支撑位 2300 元/吨整数关口企稳， | | | | 短期价格企稳上行。近期，东北玉米价格整体偏弱，港口及深加工玉米价格下调 | | | | 都对价格有不利影响，但产区余粮整体偏少对行情也有一定的支撑。华北地区玉 | | | | 米价格整体维持稳定，个别企业价格窄幅调整，主流价格维持稳定。目前山东深 | | | 玉米 | 加工主流价格维持在 2250-2340 元/吨，贸易商对短期上涨预期减弱，在利润较 | | | | 为可观的情况下，以逢高出货策略为主。整体来看 ，玉米主力 2505 合约自 3 月 | | | | 中旬的 2336 元/吨的价格高点持续回落近两周时间，5 月期价下跌至 2240 元/吨 | | | | 的价格 ...