光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 9 月 2 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 785.5 | 783.0 | 2.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 21.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 765.0 | 762.0 | 3.0 | I09-I01 | -40.5 | -41.5 | 1.0 | | I01 | 805.5 | 803.5 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 22 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外盘铜价震荡偏弱，未能进一步延续涨势，国内现货进口处于亏损态势。宏观方 | | | | 面，美国二季度实际 GDP 年化季环比终值 3.8%，高于预期和前值 3.3%；美国二季度 | | | | PCE 物价指数年化季环比终值 2.6%，略高于预期和前值 2.5%。该数据表明美国经济 | | | | 韧性和通胀顽固性同在。美国首申失业金人数为 21.8 万人，较前周下降 1.4 万人，为 | | | | 七月以来最低水平，劳动力市场放缓担忧减缓。昨晚美联储理事米兰表示应每次降息 | | | | 50 个基点，通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。库存方面，LME 库存下降 350 | | | | 吨至 144425 吨；Comex 库存增加 2564 吨至 291260 吨；SMM 周四统计国内铜社会库 | | | 铜 | 存较周一下降 0.44 万吨至 14.01 万吨。需求方面，长假到来，下游采购相对谨慎。美 | | | | Freeport M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.93% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 71,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,980 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 40,309 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and lithium recycling increased by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 351 tons to 17,896 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking. Downstream inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 964 tons to 33,492 tons [3]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and the firm price of lithium ore still support the price. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project resumption after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty. It is necessary to manage positions well [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,740 yuan/ton, up 1,060 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 856 US dollars/ton. The price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) and lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton and 1,875 yuan/ton respectively. The price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased by 70 yuan to 6,150 yuan/ton, and the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased by 75 yuan to 7,285 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) increased by 0.05 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased by 250 yuan to 58,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 230 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 494 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the prices of manganese acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells increased slightly, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, different grades of lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - **Spreads**: Charts 11 - 22 show the trends of various spreads such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43].

黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3167 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅为 0.09%，持仓减少 1.18 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交小幅回升，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 3030 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.82 万吨。据 | | | | 我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，同比增加 1 万吨；社库环比回落 13.32 | | | | 万吨至 471.89 万吨，同比增加 184.56 万吨；厂库环比回落 0.66 万吨至 164.41 万吨，同比增加 36.28 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需增加 10.41 万吨至 220.44 吨，同比减少 35.02 万吨。螺纹产量基本持平，库存连续第二周下降， | | | | 表需回升，供需数据有所改善。目前螺纹供需仍有一定压力，但当前价格估值不高，后期反 ...

| 品种 | | | | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | | | | | | | 周四，玉米震荡收十字星，近月合约企稳反弹。11 | | | | | 月合约跌至 2150 整数支撑， 期价企稳反弹，与近月下跌相比，远期 1 月合约仍延续弱势表现。近期黑龙江、 | | | 内蒙古深加工收购价格持续下滑，新季玉米供应较为充足，深加工门前排队车辆 | | | | | | | | 较多，市场对于新季市场的预期较为一般。华北蒜茬玉米与夏玉米已大量涌入市 | | | | | | | | 场，虽前期阴雨天气延缓收割晾晒，但新粮整体上市量较去年同期显著增加。贸 | | | | | | | | 震荡下行 | | | | | 易商受市场看空情绪影响，囤粮意愿低迷，多采取 "随收随走" 策略，进一步 | | | 加剧市场供应压力。销区玉米价格整体以稳为主，部分港口现货供应偏紧，报价 | | | | | | | | 窄幅上调，加之受台风天气影响，到港速度放缓，支撑现货价格。下游提货节奏 | | | | | | | | 放缓，节前补库现象 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 9055 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.72%， 持仓减仓 10966 手至 25.99 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9604 元/吨， 较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格回涨至 8900 元/吨，现货贴 水扩至 155 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51365 元/吨，日 内涨幅 0.89%，持仓减仓 5713 手至 10.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 1135 元/吨。双节前硅煤价格攀升、工业硅复产收敛叠加下游备货 提开工，库存出现去化。短期成本支撑与高库存压制并存，存在偏强 支撑。多晶硅能耗政策意见稿发布，1/2 级标准稍有提升。由于特朗普 计划将硅产品纳入征税清单。在内外政策联动且均未落地阶段，多晶 硅抢生产和抢出口情绪浓厚。政策和实际供需演绎方向背离，期现或 延续分歧，关注国内政策落地情况和美税率协定情况。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价窄幅震荡，其中 WTI 11 月合约收盘下跌 0.01 美元至 | | | | 64.98 美元/桶，跌幅 0.02%。布伦特 12 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 | | | | 0.34 美元至 68.8 美元/桶，涨幅 0.5%。SC2511 以 491.1 元/桶收 | | | | 盘，上涨 2.2 元/桶，涨幅为 0.45%。乌克兰袭击了位于黑海沿岸 | | | | 的俄罗斯新罗西斯克港和图阿普谢港。乌方消息人士称，袭击行 | | | | 动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端 | | | | 设备瘫痪，相关设施每日出口原油约 200 万桶。此外，乌方的无 | | | | 人机还袭击了俄大型石油装载码头图阿普谢港。美国总统特朗普 | | | 原油 | 称，他现在认为乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下，有望"赢回全部乌 | 震荡 | | | 克兰，恢复原状"。当天，特朗普还在讲话中将俄罗斯称为"纸 | | | | 老虎"， ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指涨超 1.5%，再创 3 年多以来新高。个股跌多涨 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 少，沪深京三市超 3800 股飘绿，今日成交 2.39 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.01%， 深成指涨 0.67%，创业板指涨 1.58%。美联储降息 25BP，但表态相对谨慎， | | | | 其内部对于年内降息路径存在分化，权益市场涨跌不一，目前市场预计年内 | | | | 降息 3 次。国内方面，此前发布的 8 月经济数据中消费、投资等需求端指标 | | | | 环比均有小幅走低，体现经济筑底企稳仍在路上，本轮行情主要计价中长期 | | | 股指 | 政策预期，当期基本面因素影响有限。此前，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 | 偏强 | | | 厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围 | | | | 内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管总量仍有提 | | | | 升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-26 一、指数走势 09 月 25 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.01%，收于 3853.3 点，成交额 10012.11 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.67%，收于 13445.9 点，成交额 13698.79 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.37%，成交额 4647.45 亿元，其中开盘价 7521.32，收盘价 7506.51，当日最高价 7563.08，最低价 7487.12； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.24%，成交额 4930.47 亿元，其中开盘价 7325.66，收盘价 7341.32，当日最高价 7379.61，最低价 7312.35； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.6%，成交额 6698.67 亿元，其中开盘价 4563.98，收盘价 4593.49，当日最高价 4613.95，最低价 4558.84； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.45%，成交额 1586.67 亿元，其中开盘价 2944.73，收盘价 2952.74，当日最高价 2962.18，最低价 2941.87。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]