农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力合约减仓调整，9 | 月合约资金向 | 1 | 月转移，1 | 月是新玉米集中上 | 市期，生长期天气良好的利空因素左右市场情绪，玉米期价呈现偏弱表现。东北 | | | | | | | 玉米价格仍以平稳为主，进口玉米拍卖但对市场的影响已相对有限。东北产区目 | 前能零星上量，下游购销活跃度偏差，对市场的支撑也稍显一般。中美双方将继 | | | | | | | | | | | 续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 | 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 | 90 | 天，关税 | 较前期暂无变化。华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。山东深加工企业早间剩 | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 余车辆继续减少，部分企业价格窄幅上调 | 10-20 | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工企业 | 玉米价格维持稳定。基层余粮不多，但大部分人看涨预期 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.25%，报收 67.5 美分/磅，CF509 环比下降 1.89%，报收 13755 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 37728 手至 37.59 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15343 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 88 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15470 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 110 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍聚焦于宏观层面，美联 | | | | 储 7 月议息会议如期按兵不动，符合市场预期，但鲍尔威未就 9 月降息概率给出 | | | | 预测，市场解读为"强硬防守"，9 月降息概率下降，跌至 5 成以下，美元指数走 | 震荡偏 | | | 强，美棉价格承压下行，关注后续经济与就业数据。基本面驱动有限，短期仍以震 | | | | 荡看待。国内市场方面，近期行情的转向仍在继续，09 合约减仓下行，9-1 价差仍 | 弱 | | | 在不断下 ...

Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.43% to 70,600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 65,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 855 tons to 13,131 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In terms of imports, China's lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate links increasing by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short-term fundamentals lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the overall market, market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the subsequent market can be monitored, and attention should be paid to position management [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents a table of daily price data for various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. It shows price changes from July 29 - 30, 2025, such as the main contract closing price of futures dropping from 70,840 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report includes charts showing the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - There are charts depicting the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. Price Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - The report provides charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. Lithium Battery Prices - There are charts presenting the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate industry from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][37][39]. Production Costs - A chart depicts the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.74%至 9730 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.47%至 78700 元/ | | | 吨；国内现货进口仍处于亏损状态。宏观方面，美国 Q2 实际 GDP 年化季环比初值 3%， | | | 好于预期值 2.6%，但 PCE 物价指数 2.5%，高于预期的 2.3%，大幅低于前值 3.5%。美 | | | 国 7 月 ADP 就业人数增加 10.4 万人，好于预期 7.6 万人和前值-3.3 万人。就业韧性和 | | | 通胀走高使得美联储在货币政策上更加谨慎。昨晚美联储议息会议继续按兵不动，鲍 | | | 威尔在发布会上未就 9 月降息给出明确指引，强调通胀风险和就业稳固，打压年内降 | | | 息预期，美元和美债收益率急升。国内方面，国内重要会议指出宏观政策要持续发力、 | | 铜 | 适时加力，要有效释放内需潜力，持续防范化解重点领域风险。库存方面来看，LME 库 | | | 存增加 9225 吨至 136850 吨；Comex ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Decline [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the production of building materials slightly decreasing, inventory slightly decreasing, and apparent demand falling. The market has mixed expectations for anti - involution policy implementation, and the short - term steel futures may oscillate [1]. - For iron ore, supply has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and with the digestion of the "anti - involution" sentiment and concerns about military parade production restrictions, the short - term price is expected to decline [1]. - Coking coal supply is increasing, while coking enterprises are in production losses but still have a high enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke production is facing cost transfer pressure, and the game between steel mills and upstream is intense. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and market sentiment should be monitored [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production profit has improved, demand has increased, and cost has support. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring Contract Spreads - Steel: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar is - 56.0 (down 19.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 22.0 (down 7.0); the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 12.0 (down 8.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 2.0 (down 9.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The 9 - 1 spread is 23.0 (down 4.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is 20.5 (down 1.0) [4]. - Coke: The 9 - 1 spread is - 63.5 (down 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 52.5 (up 3.5) [4]. - Coking coal: The 9 - 1 spread is - 115.5 (down 21.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 34.0 (down 7.5) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 92.0 (down 18.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 30.0 (down 10.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 132.0 (down 26.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20.0 (down 6.0) [4]. Basis - Steel: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 125.0 (up 42.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 69.0 (up 23.0); the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 17.0 (up 30.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 5.0 (up 22.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The basis of the 09 - contract is 30.2 (down 0.9), and that of the 01 - contract is 53.2 (down 5.4) [4]. - Coke: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 98.0 (down 10.9), and that of the 01 - contract is - 161.5 (down 16.9) [4]. - Coking coal: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 79.0 (up 3.5), and that of the 01 - contract is - 194.5 (down 18.0) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 316.0 (up 96.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 408.0 (up 78.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 258.0 (up 202.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 390.0 (up 176.0) [4]. Spot Prices - Steel: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3440.0 (up 10.0), in Beijing is 3340.0 (unchanged), and in Guangzhou is 3480.0 (up 30.0); the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3500.0 (up 10.0), in Tianjin is 3500.0 (up 30.0), and in Guangzhou is 3610.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Iron ore: The spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 772.0 (down 9), and that of Super Special powder is 647.0 (down 10) [4]. - Coke: The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1420.0 (up 30.0) [4]. - Coking coal: The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 6000.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5800.0 (unchanged), and in Guangxi is 5850.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 5700.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5650.0 (up 100.0), and in Qinghai is 5700.0 (up 150.0) [4]. Other Data - Rebar: The rebar futures profit is 131.9 (down 38.9), the long - process profit is 252.4 (up 24.3), and the short - process profit is 148.5 (unchanged) [4]. - Spread data: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 168.0 (up 12.0), the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.2 (up 0.01), the ratio of coke to iron ore is 2.1 (up 0.08), the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is 1.5 (up 0.04), the ratio of rebar to coke is 2.0 (down 0.07), and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is - 108.0 (down 6.00) [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides historical price charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts [16][17][18][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report presents historical spread charts of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][31][32][35][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report includes charts of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][40][42][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report provides charts of the rebar main - contract futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][45][49]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [51]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [52].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 30, polysilicon hit the daily limit again, with the main contract 2509 closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.87%, and the open interest increasing by 22,849 lots to 164,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 8,085 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,285 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.2%, and the open interest decreasing by 33,993 lots to 243,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. - The market has been spreading news about capacity mergers and acquisitions, and the Photovoltaic Industry Association has clarified some news. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has once again emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against involution and promoting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news again, and industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon [2]. - Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand is fulfilled, the sentiment has cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to break through the previous high again. After the exchange adjusted the margin and handling fees, investors should avoid heavy - position chasing up or selling short. They should appropriately pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread space and the PS/SI price ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and the progress of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9,085 yuan/ton on July 29 to 9,345 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 260 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 8,995 yuan/ton to 9,325 yuan/ton, a rise of 330 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the increase ranging from 0 to 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 9,250 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon** - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton on July 29 to 54,705 yuan/ton on July 30, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton; the near - month contract increased from 50,805 yuan/ton to 54,585 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,780 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The prices of various types of polysilicon increased, with the increase ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased from 44,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from 6,305 yuan/ton to 8,085 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon** - The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged at 12,500 yuan/ton, 13,500 yuan/ton, and 13,000 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,000 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,082 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased from 251,965 tons to 248,550 tons, a decrease of 3,415 tons. The social inventory decreased by 300 tons to 442,600 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,070 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 83,400 tons to 90,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons. The social inventory remained unchanged at 272,000 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices** - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16]. - **Inventory** - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. - **Cost and Profit** - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 3. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than ten years of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contract prices, spreads, and basis, as well as information on contract rule changes and the composition of the research team. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Contract Prices**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with changes of -3.5, -9.0, and -4.5 respectively [4]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 contracts changed by 5.5, -4.5, and -1.0 respectively [4]. 3.2 Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, the basis of BRBF increased by 8, while the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1 [7]. - **Basis Charts**: Multiple charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time [9][10][11]. 3.3 Contract Rule Changes - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian Concentrate) were added, and four more (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Wugang Standard Fines, and SP10 Fines) were also added later [12]. - **Brand Premium Adjustment**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Quality Premium Adjustment**: The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the iron element premium was introduced [12]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines increased by 2, while the spread of PB fines - mixed fines decreased by 2 [14]. - **Spread Charts**: Multiple charts show the spread trends between different iron ore varieties over time [16][17][19][20][21]. 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The black research team consists of Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24].

数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨-41.44 点，电力设备,计算机,非银金融等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-07-31 一、指数走势 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 07 月 30 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.17%，收于 3615.72 点，成交额 8196.28 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.77%，收于 11203.03 点，成交额 10246.52 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.82%，成交额 3926.75 亿元，其中开盘价 6758.33，收盘价 6718.48，当日最高价 6770.88，最低价 6662.91； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.65%，成交额 3047.78 亿元，其中开盘价 6345.37，收盘价 6314.69，当日最高价 6368.27，最低价 6269.51； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.02%，成交额 4451.68 亿元，其中开盘价 4148.94，收盘价 4151.24，当日最高价 4185.21，最低价 4127.43； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.38%，成交额 1125.97 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡回调，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.4%，成交额 1.87 万亿元。中证 | | | | 1000 指数下跌 0.82%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.65%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.02%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.38%。中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴 | | | | 制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近 | | | | 年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升 | | | | 居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集 | | | | 资金，推出更多普惠型财政支持方案将成为拉动我国通胀环境企稳回升的一 | | | | 条重要路径。股市近期上涨主要来自三个逻辑：（1）长期：市场压住财政政 | | | 股指 | 策更多转向促销费领域，以及中美关系缓和后国内通胀水平回升，在此背景 | 震荡 | | | 下， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]