股指期货日度数据跟踪 2026-02-04 一、指数走势 02 月 03 日，上证综指涨跌幅 1.29%，收于 4067.74 点，成交额 11107.2 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 2.19%，收于 14127.11 点，成交额 14335.11 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 2.93%，成交额 5257.6 亿元，其中开盘价 8058.76，收盘价 8209.1，当日最高价 8210.05，最低价 8023.24； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 3.11%，成交额 5432.64 亿元，其中开盘价 8135.87，收盘价 8286.7，当日最高价 8286.7，最低价 8075.37； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 1.18%，成交额 6666.27 亿元，其中开盘价 4648.36，收盘价 4660.11，当日最高价 4662.13，最低价 4578.21； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.05%，成交额 1927.8 亿元，其中开盘价 3033.47，收盘价 3034.58，当日最高价 3037.0，最低价 2987.41。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） 图表 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡走弱，主力05合约收盘价1770元/吨，跌幅1.06%。现货市场价格多数 | 震荡 | | | 稳定，个别地区略有波动，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均稳定在1770元/吨。基本面来看 | | | | ，尿素日产量近期位于21万吨附近波动，昨日20.91万吨，日环比降0.1万吨，后续气头企业 | | | | 持续复产仍将带动尿素供应进一步提升。需求跟进情绪趋于放缓，昨日主流地区产销率位 | | | | 于20%~90%区间，个别地区仍达到130%产销率。后续随着春节愈加临近，中下游采购力度 | 宽幅 | | | 、市场活跃度或有所回落，生产企业为预收假期订单或将灵活调整价格，不排除向下松动 | | | | 的可能。整体来看，近期尿素市场新增驱动不足，预计期货盘面宽幅震荡为主，日内情绪 | | | | 偏弱。若价格跌至中下游可接受价位，采购需求也将给市场托底。关注尿素现货成交情况 | | | | 、企业节前预收订单及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,815 yuan/ton, an intraday decline of 0.62%, and the open interest decreased by 1,513 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from百川 was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 35 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 50,000 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 6.61%, and the open interest decreased by 1,867 lots to 38,411 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from百川 dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the lowest deliverable silicon material price was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - Silica enterprises have officially entered the winter maintenance period, and the overall supply of ore is shrinking. Downstream industries have also entered full - scale maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. In the game of reduced supply and demand of industrial silicon, the price has cost support, but whether there can be upward momentum depends on whether large manufacturers cut production more than expected [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting and mentioned anti - monopoly issues again. The signing of new orders by silicon wafer enterprises is basically at a standstill, the pessimistic expectation in the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still downward pressure on silicon material prices. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures settlement price of the main industrial silicon contract increased from 8,795 yuan/ton on February 2 to 8,815 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and at different ports remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 5 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures settlement price of the main polysilicon contract increased from 47,050 yuan/ton on February 2 to 50,000 yuan/ton on February 3, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton. Some spot prices increased, and the current lowest deliverable price increased from 51,300 yuan/ton to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 4,250 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 852 tons to 15,707 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,560 tons to 69,715 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 16,800 tons to 456,150 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 40 tons to 8,510 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 132,000 tons to 252,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 25,000 tons to 333,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon and DMC [21][22][25]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][31].

农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2603 合约继续减仓，日持仓减少 5.8 万手，5 月合约持仓增加 2 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 万手，玉米加权合约持仓下降 3.5 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价先跌后涨。周初 华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力不足。山东 深加工企业早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚可，部分库存较 | | | | 低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加，但目前基层粮 | | | 玉米 | 点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。销区市场玉米价格 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区港口贸易商报价松 | | | | 动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合约在 2300 整数关 | | | | 口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合约调整因素影响， | | | | 玉米 5、7 月合约跳空下行。此前获利多单止盈离场后，5、7 月合约短空参与 ...

光期研究 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 777.5 | 783.0 | -5.5 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 | | I09 | 760.0 | 766.0 | -6.0 | I09-I01 | 11.0 | 12.5 | -1.5 | | I01 | 749.0 | 753.5 | -4.5 | I01-I05 | ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 三、图表分析 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 4.63%至 148100 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 2000 元/ 吨至 153500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 2000 元/吨至 150000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 2500 元/吨至 149500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 843 吨至 33084 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比减少 648 吨至 21569 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少 670 吨至 13244 吨，锂云 母产量环比减少 50 吨至 2832 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 90 吨至 3205 吨，回收料提锂环比减少 18 吨 至 2288 吨；根据 SMM，2 月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降 17.6%至 58835 吨，工业级碳酸锂环比下降 12.7%至 23095 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 203 吨至 18053 吨，库存环比减少 177 吨至 18691 吨；周度磷酸铁 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.59%，报收 62.3 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.07%，报 | 震荡 | | | 收 14650 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 16256 手至 71.79 万手，棉花 3128B 现货 | | | | 价格指数 15650 元/吨，较前一日上涨 80 元/吨。国际市场方面，海外宏观仍有阶 | | | | 段性扰动，贵金属风险集中释放，美元指数 97-98 区间震荡，美棉期价短期难寻 | | | | 上行驱动。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价振幅较大，尾盘基本收平。我们认为，节 | | | | 前郑棉上行驱动有限，短期商品市场波动较大，随着春节临近，持仓或有小幅下 | | | | 降。基本面角度来看，当前棉花库存高位、进口增量，总供应充裕。节前下游纺织 | | | | 企业虽有补库动作，但目前纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下近五年来同期新高，再 | | | | 度大幅补库动力有限，纺织企业也将陆续开始放假，郑棉上行驱 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 硅铁 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5620 元/吨，环比下跌 0.71%，主力合约持仓环比下降 8051 手至 10.21 万手。各地区硅铁汇总价格约 5300-5350 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。昨日黑色板块整体走势 偏弱，但幅度收窄，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。消息面，河北某大型钢厂 2 月 75B 硅铁采购定价 5760 元/ 吨，较询盘价上调，环比 1 月持平，采购量 2150 吨，环比下降 1163 吨。供需层面来看，硅铁产量处于近 年来同期低位，截至 1 月末硅铁周产量 9.85 万吨，周环比上涨 0.1%，同比下降 10.7%。需求端，节前钢招 逐渐接近尾声，市场成交或逐渐转淡。库存端，截至 1 月末，60 家硅铁样本企业库存为 6.79 万吨，环比 增加 680 吨，同比下降 8340 吨。综合来看，钢招定价提供指引，基本面整体驱动有限，预计短期硅铁价 格震荡运行为主，关注成本扰动及黑色板块整体走势。 震荡 二、日度数据监 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 02 月 04 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场低位反弹，Wind 全 A 上涨 2.12%，成交额 2.57 万亿元，除 | | | | 金融外多板块均上涨。中证 1000 指数上涨 2.93%，中证 500 指数上涨 3.11%， | | | | 沪深 300 指数上涨 1.18%，上证 50 指数上涨 1.05%。近期各部位密集出台经 | | | | 济调控政策，对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表 | | | | 示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合 | | | | 整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在谋划推进 | | | | 一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行 | | | 股指 | 将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支 | 震荡 | | | 持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养老、碳减排等近期股市热点题 | | ...