Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward trend with a long - term bearish outlook [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways movement [1] - Oils: Upward trend with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Eggs: Slightly bullish with a sideways bias [1] - Hogs: Sideways movement [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are pressured by increased new - grain supply in the production areas, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long term [1] - Soybean meal prices are influenced by the expectation of China's potential purchase of US soybeans and are expected to move sideways [1] - Oil prices are affected by the weakness of the surrounding market and the bearish palm oil data in the producing areas, with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Egg prices are supported by the rising spot prices and may continue to rebound in the short term, but there is pressure on the upside [1] - Hog prices are supported by the increased fattening enthusiasm in the Northeast and are expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The corn main contract 2601 opened slightly lower on Monday and then the decline widened. New - grain supply increased in the production areas, and the price in the North Port was under pressure. The price in the Northeast adjusted slightly, and the price in North China was generally stable with some narrow - range adjustments. Technically, the price was expected to decline in the long term, with short - term support at 2100 [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose to a six - month high on Monday due to the hope of China's resumption of US soybean purchases. Domestic protein meal mainly moved sideways. The market was waiting for the results of the super - macro week, especially whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day on Monday, hitting a four - week low. High - frequency data showed a slight decrease in the export of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25. Domestic oils mainly moved sideways, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly and palm oil falling slightly. The inventory was high, and the basis was weak [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures continued to rebound on Monday, with the main contract 2512 rising 1.56%. The spot price increased, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. There was an optimistic expectation for future supply improvement, but there was still pressure on the upside [1] - **Hogs**: The main hog contract 2601 gapped up on Monday. The spot price in the production and sales areas was strong. In the Northeast, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was high over the weekend, and the supply of medium and large hogs was tight. The price was expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Market Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil increased compared with the same period last month according to SPPOMA data. Different institutions had different data on the export volume of Malaysian palm oil during this period, with an increase of 23.8% according to SGS and a decrease of 0.27% according to Amspec [3] - On October 27, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Australian Prime Minister Albanese in Kuala Lumpur, expressing the willingness to strengthen economic cooperation and explore the review and upgrade of the free - trade agreement [3] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [5][6][10][14] - **Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [13][16][17][22] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of experience in the futures industry and many honors [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 27th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.17%, and the open interest increasing by 15,179 lots to 202,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 245 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.82%, and the open interest decreasing by 24,322 lots to 106,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 310 yuan/ton. With production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supply and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity prices, the operating center of industrial silicon has shifted upward. Due to the quota arrangement by the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more of a stage of concentrated pre - quota production by enterprises and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production, and the concentrated inventory - building - driven recovery may not be sustainable. However, as downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, there is some short - term support for the bottom of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to industrial production schedules and industry stockpiling dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,920 yuan/ton on October 24th to 8,965 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 45 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 280 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 142 to 48,185, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons to 241,635 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons to 445,500 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 52,305 yuan/ton on October 24th to 54,500 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 2,195 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 2,100 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 180 to 9,240, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 10,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][18][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [24][28] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [32][34][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of steel may decrease in the short - term due to environmental protection requirements, and the inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils has decreased, indicating an improved supply - demand situation [1]. - The iron ore market is likely to show a weak oscillation. The global shipment volume has increased, while the iron - water output has decreased, and the inventory pressure of rebar remains [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The supply of coking coal is limited due to environmental protection and safety measures, and the demand for coking coal has increased. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, but the profit improvement is less than expected, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and limited terminal demand [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to oscillate. For manganese - silicon, the supply is difficult to significantly decrease, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. For silicon - iron, the cost has slightly increased, the demand is limited, and the inventory is still high [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose by 1.77% to 3100 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.47% and 1.05% respectively. The new regulations on steel - industry capacity replacement and the environmental - protection - based production limit in Tangshan may affect the supply [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of iron ore rose by 2% to 786.5 yuan/ton. The Australian shipment was stable, and the Brazilian shipment increased. The iron - water output decreased by 1.05 tons to 239.9 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal rose by 1.2% to 1263.5 yuan/ton. The supply was restricted by environmental protection and safety measures, and the demand increased due to the second - round price increase of coke [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke rose by 1.25% to 1779.5 yuan/ton. The second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was fully implemented, but the profit improvement was less than expected due to the high cost of coking coal [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The futures price of manganese - silicon rose by 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to significantly decrease, and the demand was weak with high inventory [1]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The futures price of silicon - iron rose by 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton. The cost increased slightly, the demand was limited, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of rebar was - 59.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 1 - 5 - month spread of hot - rolled coils was - 13.0, with a 2.0 increase [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 contract of rebar was 110.0, with a - 44.0 decrease; the basis of the 01 contract of hot - rolled coils was 31.0, with a - 9.0 decrease [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3210.0, with a 10.0 increase; the Shanghai spot price of hot - rolled coils was 3330.0, with a 40.0 increase [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The rebar's on - disk profit was - 130.5, with a 17.4 increase; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 199.0, with a - 5.0 decrease [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main - Contract Price**: The report presents the historical closing - price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main - Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - Period Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of different - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - Variety Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of cross - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trends of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 10 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场高开高走，科计板块领涨，上游钢铁、有色、建材等也有不 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 错的表现。Wind 全 A 收涨 1.19%，成交额 2.36 万亿元，中证 1000 指数上涨 1.03%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.67%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.19%，上证 50 指数上 | | | | 涨 0.78%。《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》聚焦几大 | | | | 主线：（1）"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历史机遇"并形成现代化产业 | | | 股指 | 体系；（2）继续扩大内需，"促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动"；（3） | 偏强 | | | 继续深化改革和扩大开放。《公报》内容符合市场预期，提振市场信心，预计 | | | | 未来结构化行情仍将延续。但当前科创指数估值处于历史极值位置，盘面上 | | | | 谨慎追高。此外，中美近日在马来西亚举行经贸磋商，会谈进程富有建设性， | | | | 可能促成双方元首更加密切 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 10 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力01合约收盘价1640元/吨，日环比收平。现货市 | 场继续回暖，山东、河南地区市场价格分别提升至1610元/吨、1590元/吨，日环比 | | | | | 分别上涨40元/吨、20元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应仍低位波动，昨日行业日产量 | 18.88万吨，日环比增0.09万吨。后续故障及检修企业复产或带动日产稳步回升。需 | | | | | 求端情绪局部继续回暖，北方阴雨天减少带动农业需求释放，但区 | 之间分化仍较 | 尿素 | 偏强 | 为明显。山西地区产销率昨日攀升至100%以上，其余地区产销率维持10%~30%区间 | | 。整体来看，尿素价格上涨压制中下游采购意愿，基本驱动依旧有限。后续宏观情 | 绪回暖、国际市场及印标、能源价格走高等因素扰动仍存，尿素期、现市场仍以阶 | | | | | 段性反弹为主，不建议过分看涨。关注需求跟进力度、印标结果及出口政策动态、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. Specifically, the price of crude oil is expected to return to a volatile state due to OPEC+'s production increase plan and concerns about weak demand; the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are also expected to be volatile due to various factors such as supply and demand and cost [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The WTI December contract closed down $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent December contract closed down $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC2512 closed at 464.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.5 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.75%. OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply. The market's concern about weak demand continues to suppress oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will return to a volatile state in the short term [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 closed up 1.8% at 3,275 yuan per ton. Due to weak downstream demand and sufficient recent supply, the Asian low-sulfur market structure has weakened. The Asian high-sulfur market is expected to remain stable. In the short term, the absolute prices of FU and LU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3,295 yuan per ton. From the perspective of refinery production schedules in early November, the supply pressure will be alleviated. In the short term, the absolute price of BU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.17%; EG2601 closed at 4,109 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.78%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are generally good, with an average production and sales estimate of about 70%. The fundamentals of TA and EG have improved. In the short term, the prices of polyester products are expected to be volatile [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 rose 45 yuan per ton to 15,380 yuan per ton, and the main NR contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 12,540 yuan per ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. Macroscopically, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, and it is expected that rubber prices will be strongly volatile [3] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan per ton. In the short term, the port supply is still relatively high, and the short-term rebound of crude oil has a positive impact on the valuation of chemicals. Therefore, the performance of methanol may tend to be volatile [4] - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,560 - 6,650 yuan per ton. In the short term, the production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short-term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile stage [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price of the PVC market in East China fluctuated slightly. The supply remains at a high level, the domestic demand has slowed down, and the export is expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under the suppression of high inventory [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 28, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [6] 3.3 Market News - Market participants said that OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December to regain market share. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply [10] - Morgan Stanley said that the fundamentals of the oil market are expected to return to balance from an oversupply state in the second half of next year [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, paraxylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][23] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][33][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][61][62] - **Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [69][70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties are as follows: corn - oscillatory; soybean meal - oscillatory; oils - rising (with an oscillatory strategy); eggs - oscillatory; and pigs - oscillatory [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices showed mixed trends this week. The North Port prices were under pressure recently, while the prices in North China were stable to slightly stronger. Given the expected corn harvest this year, there is a possibility that corn futures prices may reach new lows [1] - CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market remains ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [1] - BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: This week, corn prices showed mixed trends. The main 2601 contract on Thursday opened slightly lower and then rebounded. Affected by the adjustment of futures prices near the weekend, the North Port quotes were under pressure. In North China, the corn prices continued to be stable to slightly stronger. Considering the expected corn harvest this year, the market generally expects the corn futures prices to reach new lows [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose to a one - month high on Thursday. Domestic protein meal increased with reduced positions, and the soybean meal rose by over 2%. The supply of soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market is ample, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing. The slow procurement of soybeans by oil mills from December to January provides strong cost support for soybean meal [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil closed higher on Thursday. Domestic palm oil futures prices declined following the foreign market, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated slightly. The improvement in the spot trading volume of soybean oil and the rigid demand for palm oil and rapeseed oil were observed. It is necessary to closely monitor the Sino - US talks and the Fed meeting [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rebounded from a low level on Thursday. Spot egg prices showed a pattern of mostly stable with a few increases in the production areas, and the purchasing costs in the sales areas were mostly stable with a few increases. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flock [1] - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main hog futures contract oscillated and formed a doji star. After the National Day, hog prices declined rapidly, and the expectation of a technical rebound increased. Although the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the entry of second - fattening operations have alleviated the short - term supply pressure to some extent, the oversupply situation remains the main factor influencing prices [2] Market Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025. The session proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern [2][3] - The main economic and social development goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period were put forward, aiming to achieve a significant leap in China's economic, technological, national defense, and comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [3] - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 for economic and trade consultations with the US [3] - The EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and expanded the scope of sanctions to include 12 Chinese companies and 3 Indian companies. China strongly opposes these sanctions and has lodged solemn representations with the EU [3] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural product contracts, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][6] - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural product contracts, such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [12][13][16] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in multiple analyst selection competitions and has led her team to achieve excellent results [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience and has won many industry awards [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by mainstream media [26]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.44% to 64.02 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.26% to 13,575 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,744 lots to 599,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,575 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day. There are still macro - level disturbances in the international market, and the U.S. dollar index has large fluctuations. In the domestic market, the recent rise in the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to macro - level good news and different views on the increase in domestic new cotton production in the 2025/26 season. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has also increased slightly. In the short term, the kinetic energy for Zhengzhou cotton to break through the range oscillation is still relatively weak, with supply increments and hedging pressure above and cost and expectations as support below. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [2] - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and some processing sugar groups have decreased. Raw sugar is testing the support at 15 cents per pound. Domestic terminals are in a wait - and - see state and purchase as needed. Spot prices are reducing inventory through price cuts. Weather in the next month is crucial for sugar accumulation, and the market will focus on the game of the deviation of the production increase expectation. In the short term, cost support is emerging, and it should be treated with an oscillation mindset [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 25, up 15; the main basis is 1,209, down 28. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,652 yuan per ton, up 9, and the national spot price is 14,784 yuan per ton, up 12 [3] - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38, down 8; the main basis is 303, down 41. The spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [3] Market Information - On October 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,526, down 39 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 482 [4] - On October 23, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,652 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,794 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,806 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,935 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4] - On October 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26, down 0.2. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, down 0.1, and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.6, unchanged [4] - On October 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [4] - On October 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,196, down 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5]

1. Index Trends - On October 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to close at 3,922.41 points with a trading volume of 718.931 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 13,025.45 points with a trading volume of 924.978 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.06% with a trading volume of 328.575 billion yuan, opening at 7,292.39, closing at 7,308.1, with a daily high of 7,319.55 and a low of 7,192.42 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.2% with a trading volume of 286.304 billion yuan, opening at 7,108.85, closing at 7,142.95, with a daily high of 7,153.66 and a low of 7,022.29 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.56% with a trading volume of 121.208 billion yuan, opening at 3,002.0, closing at 3,026.9, with a daily high of 3,030.8 and a low of 2,985.43 [1] - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.3% with a trading volume of 420.8 billion yuan, opening at 4,578.7, closing at 4,606.34, with a daily high of 4,611.34 and a low of 4,541.69 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose -4.11 points compared to the previous close. Computer, coal, and power equipment sectors had a significant upward pull, while machinery, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors had a downward pull [3] - The CSI 500 rose 14.47 points compared to the previous close. Computer, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a significant upward pull, while automobile, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors had a downward pull [3] - The SSE 300 rose 13.77 points compared to the previous close. Non - bank finance, bank, and power equipment sectors had a significant upward pull, while communication and electronics sectors had a downward pull [3] - The SSE 50 rose 16.8 points compared to the previous close. Bank, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a significant upward pull, while the electronics sector had a downward pull [3] 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was -89.61, IM01 was -165.46, IM02 was -377.02, IM03 was -590.15 [13] - IC00 average daily basis was -73.27, IC01 was -129.89, IC02 was -291.47, IC03 was -470.15 [13] - IF00 average daily basis was -19.56, IF01 was -32.81, IF02 was -59.4, IF03 was -98.58 [13] - IH00 average daily basis was -5.81, IH01 was -5.96, IH02 was -5.77, IH03 was -7.96 [13] 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc [26] - For IC, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc [23] - For IF, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc [27] - For IH, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 1.4593333, IH00 - 02 was 1.3637778, etc [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper prices rose 1.49% to $10,817 per ton, with domestic prices slightly following. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, Sino-US consultations, and improved market risk appetite boosted copper prices, and attention is on whether LME copper can break through previous highs [1]. - Overnight alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory reached a 3 - year high, with supply surplus pressure increasing, but it may be bottoming out. Aluminum ingot supply declined, and the de - stocking process was optimistic [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.29% and Shanghai nickel rose 0.8%. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was evident, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with caution for macro - level disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices increased. US housing data was stable, and Sino - US consultations were scheduled. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal enhanced market confidence. LME, Comex, and domestic inventories showed different trends. Market risk appetite improved, and copper prices were expected to strengthen [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory hit a 3 - year high, with some high - cost producers near the break - even point. Overseas supply decreased, and domestic aluminum water supply increased, leading to a decline in aluminum ingot supply and optimistic de - stocking [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - stainless steel and new energy industries had different situations. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was significant, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products increased, and inventory changes were mixed. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: Prices of lead products generally increased, and inventory changes were different. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import profit increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Alumina inventory increased. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased slightly, and inventory changes were mixed. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%. Inventory changes were different, and the active contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. Inventory decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. Non - Core Content (Team Introduction) - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field [50][51]