有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美联储议息会议降息概率升至 90%以上，接近充分定 库 | | | 价，市场偏谨慎看待，但整体上投资者对流动性存在再宽松预期。库存方面，LME | | | 存下降 1675 吨至 150950 吨；Comex 库存增加 926 吨至 283832 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 | | 铜 | 3049 吨至 33692 吨，BC 铜增加 321 吨至 11794 吨。需求方面，下游畏惧高铜价及宏观 | | | 不确定性，采购积极性较弱。美联储降息 25 个基点几乎完全定价，市场关注在于是否 | | | 存利多落地表现，届时若美股出现大幅回落表现，可能会带动有色市场情绪偏弱，因此 | | | 该时间节点前后波动率预期加大下多看少动，但站在政策预期及需求旺季的角度，铜 | | | 价仍可偏强看待。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2962 元/吨，跌幅 0.9%，持仓增仓 17050 手至 30.4 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏 ...

1. Index Trends - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3861.87 points, with a trading volume of 989.786 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45% to close at 13063.97 points, with a trading volume of 1351.615 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92% with a trading volume of 474.734 billion yuan, opening at 7426.41, closing at 7483.63, with a daily high of 7487.07 and a low of 7364.73 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.75% with a trading volume of 435.21 billion yuan, opening at 7152.19, closing at 7190.99, with a daily high of 7195.42 and a low of 7080.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 0.21% with a trading volume of 613.728 billion yuan, opening at 4539.92, closing at 4523.34, with a daily high of 4552.42 and a low of 4494.79 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.5% with a trading volume of 155.43 billion yuan, opening at 2969.23, closing at 2947.82, with a daily high of 2974.95 and a low of 2942.3 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 68.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 53.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, automobiles, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The SSE 300 fell 9.72 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computers, electronics, and machinery having a positive impact, while non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 fell 14.8 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector having a positive impact, while food and beverage, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 26.35, IM01 was - 95.74, IM02 was - 248.6, and IM03 was - 455.45 [12]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 18.99, IC01 was - 77.14, IC02 was - 186.78, and IC03 was - 345.03 [12]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 3.61, IF01 was - 12.63, IF02 was - 33.84, and IF03 was - 58.86 [12]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.17, IH01 was - 0.2, IH02 was 0.6, and IH03 was 3.13 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The document provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different 15 - minute intervals [23][25][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, and the short - term thread disk is expected to run with an upward bias. The iron ore market has a complex supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by production and demand factors, and the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are boosted by market sentiment, but the fundamental driving force is limited, and the prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The thread disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the thread 2601 contract was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,800 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume declined slightly. With environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to run with an upward bias [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price of iron ore futures rose yesterday, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day, with 400,000 lots traded and a decrease of 3,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered after production restrictions, but the steel mill profitability has declined, and the inventory has increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1240.5 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 4.46%, with an increase of 33,930 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. The supply side has normal production, and the demand side has a slowdown in procurement. The short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Coke**: The coke disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 46.5 yuan/ton or 2.75%, with a decrease of 406 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. After two rounds of price cuts, the profitability of coke enterprises has declined, and the supply is sufficient. With production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5944 yuan/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, with an increase of 7995 lots in positions to 335,700 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Driven by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market news, the price is expected to oscillate on the stronger side, but the upward space is limited [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.71% month - on - month, with a decrease of 810 lots in positions to 212,400 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Affected by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market sentiment, but with limited fundamental driving force, the price is expected to follow the black sector and oscillate slightly on the stronger side [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, as well as the profit, price spreads, and other data of some commodities, including the contract spreads between different months, the basis of different contracts, and the changes in spot prices in different regions [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][9][11][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][22][23][24][25] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][41] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - commodity contract spreads of some black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and steel, the ratio of steel to iron ore, the ratio of steel to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, etc. [43][44][45][47] - **3.5 Steel Profits**: It shows the profit trends of steel, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the main steel contracts [48][49][51][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month contract of corn is in a downward trend. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price has no significant fluctuations. The downstream feed mills mainly use inventory and make small - scale replenishments. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans reached a two - week high on Tuesday. The domestic soybean meal spot market continues to fluctuate. The previous negative factors in the supply - demand report and the spot market have been digested. With sufficient domestic supply and increased apparent consumption, the price will mainly fluctuate. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. The price of domestic oil futures has strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise and breaking through the 10,000 - yuan/ton mark. The market atmosphere is generally optimistic, and the oils are in a strong - side fluctuation. The strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs continues to rebound. The futures price has lifted from the bottom due to spot market support, but the inference of a downward trend in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position. Continuously monitor the impact of the breeding side's replenishment and elimination sentiment on supply and market sentiment [2]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side still exerts pressure on the price. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 11 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price continuing to decline. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price of the sales area has not changed. The overall market sentiment is bearish. In the short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to optimistic export expectations and uncertain crop yields. The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays. The domestic oil futures market strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and the strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rebounded, and the futures price lifted from the bottom. However, the trend of production capacity decline needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side exerts pressure on the price, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [2]. Market Information - The外交部 has no information on whether Chinese and US leaders will talk this week [3]. - Kenanga Research predicts that edible oil prices, including palm oil, will remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [3]. - OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna on September 18 - 19 to discuss updating member countries' production capacity estimates [3]. - As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills increased by 2.71% to 64.99%, and the total soybean crushing volume increased by 101,300 tons to 2.4298 million tons [3]. - Huachu.com will conduct a central reserve frozen pork rotation and delivery auction on September 18, with 15,000 tons of domestic frozen pork up for auction [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Presented the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: Presented the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][17][18][24]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won multiple awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.3% to 73,180 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose 400 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 38,824 tons [3] - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased by 22 tons to 16,491 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 115 tons to 17,529 tons. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 980 tons to 77,513 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 686 tons to 95,442 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons [3] - Although the long - position logic is weakened under the expectation of project复产, currently, the inventory depletion is accelerating. Before the actual复产 of the project, in the context of strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi [3] 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 73,180 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,060 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan [5] - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all increased to varying degrees [5] - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the prices of some ternary precursors, cathode materials, and other products also changed [5] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12] - **3.3 Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][20] - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][27] - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35] - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate in 2025 [38][39][40] - **3.7 Production Costs**: Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42][43][44]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 1.24%，报收 67.67 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.07%，报收 13895 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 5664 手至 49.26 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15214 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 47 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15300 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 51 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心更多在于宏观层面，美联储 9 月议息 | | | | 会议临近，9 月降息概率接近 100%，大概率降息 25BP，美元指数震荡走弱对美棉 | | | 棉花 | 价格有一定驱动。USDA 报告对美棉数据调整不大，关注天气。国内市场方面， | 震荡 | | | 新棉即将大量上市，本年度新棉丰产预期较强，手摘棉价格坚挺，机采棉开秤价 | | | | 格或在 6.2-6.5 元/公斤之间，对郑棉期价有一定支撑。需求端，8 月社零数据公布， | | | | 社零同比增速放 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, industrial silicon trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.85%. The position decreased by 3,764 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.51%. The position decreased by 4,433 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 1,045 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon has a mix of positive factors, and the market has undergone a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. The output in September continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remains, suppressing the price upside. There is still a self-discipline meeting for polysilicon to be held this week, and attention should be paid to whether new variables emerge [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both trended strongly with oscillations on September 16. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has recovered. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, and attention should be paid to the self-discipline meeting [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,840 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon mostly increased, with increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 100 yuan to -40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 49,905, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons to 249,990 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,400 tons to 445,800 tons [3] Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts remained unchanged. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon increased, with the price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rising by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 500 yuan to -1,045 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,850, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 234,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon remained unchanged at 234,000 tons [3] Organic Silicon - The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][34]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 17 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天探底回升。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超 3500 股飘红，今日成交 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2.36 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.04%，深成指涨 0.45%，创业板指涨 0.68%。8 月经济数据发布，消费、投资等需求端指标环比均有小幅走低，体现经济筑 | | | | 底企稳仍在路上，本轮行情主要计价中长期政策预期，当期基本面因素影响 | | | | 有限。长期来看，美联储 9 月大概率开启降息周期，市场预计年内降息 3 次， | | | A 股指 | 股的降息通道可能同时打开，利好权益资产的中长期股指。此前，中共中 | 偏强 | | | 央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补 | | | | 贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政 | | | | 政策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。 | | | | 预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集资金，推出更多普惠型财政支持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of crude oil is expected to rise steadily due to potential supply - side impacts from Russian production cuts and OPEC+ discussions on maximum production capacity [1]. - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Among them, the price of asphalt may have further upward potential with the arrival of the demand peak season, and the price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI October contract rose $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel (1.93% increase), Brent November contract rose $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel (1.53% increase), and SC2510 closed at 500.9 yuan per barrel, up 8.8 yuan (1.79% increase). Russian oil production may be cut due to attacks, and OPEC+ will discuss member countries' maximum production capacity. The market may price in the positive impact on the supply side, leading to a steady upward shift in the oil price center [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) rose 0.29% to 2795 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) rose 1.25% to 3395 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The prices of FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, and short - term attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) rose 0.38% to 3411 yuan per ton. Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and demand is supported in the north and affected by rainfall in the south. With the arrival of the demand peak season, the price may rise further, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; EG2601 closed at 4272 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The prices of polyester products are expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of PTA are expected to improve, and the near - month basis of ethylene glycol is strong, but the far - month supply is loose [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 45 yuan to 16040 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the peak production season overseas and the increase in downstream tire production, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2292 yuan per ton. The domestic supply is at a phased low, and overseas supply is stable. The Xingxing plant has resumed production, and the price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was between 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the demand is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the market prices in East, North, and South China all increased. The domestic real estate construction has stabilized, but the demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected. The price is expected to rebound slightly in the short - term but with limited upside [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. on September 17, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ representatives plan to hold a meeting in Vienna on Thursday and Friday to discuss how to evaluate the maximum production capacity of member countries. There are disputes among member countries regarding production quotas [10]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production after port and refinery attacks, and the attacks have led to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity since August [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [12]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [30]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy - chemical products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [60]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash flow and production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Macro - factors such as progress in Sino - US negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, domestic demand was weak, and there was a divergence between bulls and bears. Although there was a high probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, the market was concerned about whether it would be a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices could still rise [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Short - term alumina maintenance capacity returned, and raw material inventory decreased. Due to reduced ore shipments during the rainy season, ore prices rose, and the decline space of alumina was limited. Aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking during the week, and with the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices were supported. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. LME nickel inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable, and the price of low - grade laterite nickel ore decreased slightly. Stainless steel weekly inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was relatively tight. Under the influence of macro - sentiment and supply disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices rose rapidly and faced correction pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro - factors were positive, but domestic demand was weak. LME inventory decreased by 1325 tons to 152625 tons, Comex inventory increased by 592 tons to 281669 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons. Downstream procurement was weak, but scrap copper substitution was beneficial. The market sentiment shifted, and copper prices turned from weak to strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Fed rate cut impact, volatility was expected to increase around the time of the rate - cut decision [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2601) closed at 3009 yuan/ton with a 2.84% increase, and its position increased by 7317 lots to 284,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum (AL2510) closed at 21060 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and its position decreased by 4743 lots to 178,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20535 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and its position decreased by 7 lots to 8528 lots. SMM alumina prices fell to 3065 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened [1]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: LME nickel rose 0.29% to 15425 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 122310 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 224484 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons to 24959 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly, and MHP supply was tight. Nickel prices faced correction pressure after a rapid rise [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper rose by 175 yuan/ton to 80910 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 100 yuan/ton to 74200 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1325 tons, and domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.7 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 180 yuan/ton to 17040 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 3950 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 68 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20930 yuan/ton, and the South China price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventory (LME + SHFE) increased by 4421 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton to 124150 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose by 0.1% to 22305 yuan/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price rose by 0.4% to 273890 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts increased by 76 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than ten years of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles, and been interviewed by multiple media [50]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks the new energy industry chain [51].