一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 1.4%至 101060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 95150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 92650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 500 元/吨至 83530 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 210 吨至 15260 吨。 2. 消息面，消息面，继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，"亚洲锂都"宜春又现大动作。最新消息，根据《矿 产资源法》，《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记 管理的通知》等相关要求，宜春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等 27 宗采矿许可证予以注销。 目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的 27 宗采矿许可证进行公示，公示期(30 个工作日)满后予以公 告注销。注销后，生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 3. 供应端， ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-12-17 一、指数走势 12 月 16 日，上证综指涨跌幅-1.11%，收于 3824.81 点，成交额 7332.94 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-1.51%，收于 12914.67 点，成交额 9908.79 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.74%，成交额 3616.22 亿元，其中开盘价 7302.16，收盘价 7181.62，当日最高价 7302.16，最低价 7143.61； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-1.58%，成交额 2849.69 亿元，其中开盘价 7101.67，收盘价 7001.32，当日最高价 7102.77，最低价 6962.65； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-1.2%，成交额 3905.0 亿元，其中开盘价 4542.42，收盘价 4497.55，当日最高价 4553.08，最低价 4484.27； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-1.08%，成交额 1033.24 亿元，其中开盘价 2980.94，收盘价 2954.79，当日最高价 2986.08，最低价 2946.6。 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-127.46 点，有色金属, ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，11 月美国非农新增 | | | | 就业 6.4 万人，高于市场预期，但 10 月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 | | | | 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认，但能否足以改变美联储对 1 | | | | 月降息的看法仍具有不确定性，但明年 1 月降息概率再回升。另外，美国 12 月 Markit | | | | 综合 PMI 初值 53，低于预期 53.9 和前值 54.2，其中制造业和服务业均低于预期，订单 | | | 铜 | 增长放缓，价格指数攀升。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示，扩大内需是明年排在 | | | | 首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME 铜库存维持 165875 | | | | 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 1652 吨至 412444 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3558 吨至 45784 | 吨； | ...

| 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 753.0 | 8.0 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | | I09 | 739.5 | 731.5 | 8.0 | I09-I01 | -44.0 | -45.5 | 1.5 | | I01 | 783.5 | 777.0 | 6.5 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

软商品日报 软商品日报 | 二、日度数据监测 | | --- | | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | -5 | -15 | 1185 | 115 | 新疆 | 14968 | 84 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 15130 | 70 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 80 | -10 | 267 | 44 | 南宁 | 5340 | -20 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5400 | -30 | 三、市场信息 1、12 月 16 日棉花期货仓单数量 3199 张，较上一交易日增加 33 张，有效预报 4022 张。 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 1.27%，报收 63.13 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.07%，报收 13945 元/吨，主 ...

一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 16 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8365 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.59%，持仓 增仓 1514 手至 20.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 485 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58600 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.48%，持仓 增仓 5174 手至 14.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 6300 元/ 吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长，减 产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中在 套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易所 针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场关 于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩和 仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注册 基础上， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures market has been fluctuating around the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. The recent important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but in the short term, it will mainly fluctuate. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 remains unchanged, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, along with the upcoming Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting, may affect the market [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the bond market's volatile pattern is difficult to change due to reasonable and sufficient funds, economic recovery, and price warming [2]. Summary by Directory Research View - **Stock Index Futures**: The market adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both falling more than 1%, and the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. Over 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, and the trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan. The short - term impact of policies on the market is expected to increase. The expected GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 remains unchanged, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut and the upcoming Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting may affect the market. The short - term trend is mainly fluctuating [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures fell 0.19%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.05%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02%. The central bank conducted 1353 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The net investment was 180 billion yuan. The central economic work conference set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the bond market's volatile pattern is difficult to change [2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 16, 2025, IH was at 2,951.4, down 32.4 or 1.09% from the previous day; IF was at 4,499.4, down 46.2 or 1.02%; IC was at 7,010.2, down 105.6 or 1.48%; IM was at 7,189.0, down 119.0 or 1.63% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 2,954.8, down 32.3 or 1.08%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4,497.6, down 54.5 or 1.20%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7,001.3, down 112.6 or 1.58%; the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,181.6, down 127.5 or 1.74% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS was at 102.43, down 0.028 or 0.03%; TF was at 105.80, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 107.91, up 0.035 or 0.03%; TL was at 111.39, down 0.14 or 0.13% [3]. Market News - **Overall Market**: The market adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both falling more than 1%, and the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. Over 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, and the trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.1% [4]. - **Industry Sectors**: Retail, education, digital currency, and unmanned driving sectors led the gains, while precious metals, controllable nuclear fusion, cultivated diamonds, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the losses [5]. - **Popular Concepts**: Retail and other consumer stocks strengthened against the trend, with many stocks such as Yonghui Superstores and Anji Foods hitting the daily limit. The unmanned driving concept was active, with stocks like Zhejiang Shibaobao and BAIC BluePark hitting the daily limit. Digital currency concept stocks rose, with stocks like Cuiwei Co., Ltd. and Hengbao Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. On the decline side, the photovoltaic sector adjusted, with Zhongli Group hitting the daily limit down; the controllable nuclear fusion concept declined, with Sinomach Heavy Equipment hitting the daily limit down [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [20][21][27].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 1.4%至 101060 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 95150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 650 元/吨至 92650 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 500 元/吨至 83530 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 210 吨至 15260 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 59 吨至 21998 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 260 吨至 13744 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 200 吨至 2876 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 15 吨至 3075 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 14 吨至 2303 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 384 吨至 18313 吨，库存环比减少 318 吨至 18524 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 1336 吨至 94144 吨， 库存环比减少 23 吨至 103658 吨；1 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，纽约联邦储备银行 | | | 数据显示，其一般商业状况指数大幅下降约 23 点至-3.9，意味着制造业处于收缩状态， | | | 不过对未来六个月的整体前景却明显改善，前景指数上升 16.6 点，升至今年年初以来的 最高水平，反映出对订单和出货的乐观情绪增强。国内来看，昨日公布的 11 月经济数据 | | 铜 | 显示，出口保持韧性，但内需明显偏弱，消费环比快速下跌，固定资产和房地产投资承 | | | 压，凸显政策发力必要性。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 25 吨至 165875 吨；COMEX 铜 | | | 仓单增加 1995 吨至 410792 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 9663 吨至 42226 吨；BC 铜增加 301 吨 | | | 至 5965 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情 | | | 绪，短线谨慎为上。 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 252 ...