Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for various black commodities are as follows: Steel (narrow - range consolidation), Iron Ore (oscillation), Coking Coal (oscillation), Coke (oscillation), Manganese Silicon (oscillation), and Silicon Ferrosilicon (oscillation) [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a weak oscillation. High production, low demand, and inventory accumulation in the peak season pressured prices. However, as steel prices fell, cost support increased. It is expected to move in a narrow - range in the short term [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose. Supply saw a decline in global shipments, and demand had a drop in iron - water production and a decline in the steel mill profitability rate. With multiple factors at play, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price dropped. Some mines in the main production areas resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious. After the first round of coke price cuts, the demand for coking coal was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures price declined. Coke production increased due to good profit margins, while steel mills' demand was mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement showed new progress, but production was at a relatively high level, and demand was not strong. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price strengthened. Steel procurement increased, but production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high. It is expected to follow the black market's oscillation [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (0.29%). Spot prices were stable, and trading volume decreased slightly. Production was high, demand was low, and inventory was accumulating. Cost support increased [1] - Iron Ore: The i2601 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (1.6%). Spot prices were strong. Global shipments decreased, and iron - water production and steel mill inventories declined [1] - Coking Coal: The 2601 contract closed at 1123.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (1.75%). Spot prices in some areas changed. Mines resumed production, and downstream procurement was cautious [1] - Coke: The 2601 contract closed at 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton (1.39%). Spot prices fell. Coke production increased, and steel mills' demand was for on - demand procurement [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price was 5838 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory increased [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The futures price was 5620 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Steel procurement increased, production was high, and inventory reached a five - year high [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various commodities had different spreads and changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 47.0, down 3.0 [3] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the 01 contract basis of rebar was 117.0, up 9.0 [3] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions had various changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3240.0, unchanged [3] - Profits and Spreads: Different profit indicators and inter - commodity spreads changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 47.0, down 19.2 [3] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts of various black commodities [17][18][19][21][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of different contracts of various black commodities [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio [41][42][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts presented the historical profits of rebar main contracts, including futures profits, long - process profits, and short - process profits [46][47][48][49][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

| | 面的影响，基本面关注养殖端补栏、淘汰心态变化对供给的影响。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，生猪期货震荡偏弱，主力 2511 合约盘中震荡向下，日收跌 0.56%，报收 | 震荡 | | | 13230 元/吨。现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 13.32 元/公斤， | | | | 环比跌 0.08 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13.58 元/公斤，环比跌 0.26 | | | 生猪 | 元/公斤，广东平，四川、山东、辽宁均出现下跌。养殖端出货仍较为积极，南 | | | | 方部分区域猪病影响下，已跌至低谷，下游需求表现变化不大，多数压价采购为 | | | | 主。短期来看，生猪现货价格偏弱运行。基本面及市场情绪未来发生实质性变化， | | | | 上周五商务部发布的反倾销措施提振作用有限，昨日期现货价格再度恢复弱势， | | | | 后市关注市场情绪变化对生猪期货价格的影响。 | | 二、市场信息 1.据加拿大统计局数据显示，截至 7 月 31 日，加拿大小麦产量为 3593.88 万吨，去年同期为 3341.36 万吨， 小麦期末库存为 411 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力01合约收盘价1683元/吨，跌幅1.17%。现货市场 | | | | 继续走弱，昨日主流地区市场价格回落10～20元/吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价 | | | | 格分别为1670元/吨、1680元/吨，日环比均继续下降10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供 | | | | 应水平继续窄幅波动，昨日行业日产量18.32万吨，日环比降0.21万吨。需求端情绪 | | | 尿素 | 依旧较为谨慎，主流地区现货产销率依旧维持低位，平均产销率仅为25%，对需求 | 坚挺 运行 | | | 支撑依旧偏弱。印标结果仍在逐步出炉，最新消息称印度已确认250万吨采购量， | | | | 超计划采购量50万吨，其中中国供货量可能在100万吨以上。具体消息和结果仍有 | | | | 待进一步跟踪，但印标方面消息扰动也依旧存在。倘若印标采购量及中国供货量超 | | | | 预期，出口窗口期结束前供不应求现象也仍有可能出现，尿素期货价格也将阶段性 ...

软商品日报 二、日度数据监测 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.39 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.68%，报收 13835 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 2364 手至 50.77 万手，新疆地区棉花市场价约 15300 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 50 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15401 元/吨，较前一日下跌 | | | | 27 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心更多在于宏观层面，9 月降息概率接 | | | | 近 100%，CME FedWatch Tool 工具显示，预计 9 月降息 50BP 概率超过 10%，美 | 低位震 | | 棉花 | 元指数偏弱震荡，对美棉价格有一定支撑。基本面关注本周六凌晨即将发布的 | | | | USDA9 月报。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心略有下移。我们认为有以下几方 | 荡 | | | 面因素影响，一是国内新棉零星上市，市场担忧本年度新棉丰产格局下，在集中 | | ...

1. Index Trends - On September 9th, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.51% to close at 3807.29 points, with a trading volume of 917.795 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.23% to close at 12510.6 points, with a trading volume of 1200.728 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.16% with a trading volume of 431.929 billion yuan. The opening price was 7287.4, the closing price was 7226.03, the highest price was 7315.97, and the lowest price was 7198.32 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.9% with a trading volume of 394.762 billion yuan. The opening price was 6959.94, the closing price was 6928.97, the highest price was 6999.73, and the lowest price was 6895.51 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.38% with a trading volume of 139.241 billion yuan. The opening price was 2928.53, the closing price was 2928.63, the highest price was 2949.54, and the lowest price was 2915.04 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 decreased by 85.0 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Computer, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 decreased by 63.15 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Computer, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 decreased by 31.31 points compared to the previous closing price. The Banking sector significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Power Equipment, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 decreased by 11.25 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals, Banking, and Food & Beverage significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Communication, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics significantly pulled the index down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was -65.66, IM01 was -124.63, IM02 was -267.2, and IM03 was -445.73 [13]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was -55.17, IC01 was -112.43, IC02 was -226.53, and IC03 was -371.08 [13]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was -8.25, IF01 was -15.74, IF02 was -35.66, and IF03 was -54.15 [13]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was -2.13, IH01 was -3.06, IH02 was -2.44, and IH03 was -0.23 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, the roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs varied throughout the day. For example, at 09:45, the IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [24]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, the IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. The values changed over different time points [25]. - For IM contracts, at 09:45, the IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. The values were dynamic during the trading day [26]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, the IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. The roll - over point differences and annualized costs changed over time [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market adjusted with fluctuations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 3% in the afternoon. Since August, the A-share market has shown a "narrowing" trend, and short - term corrections are normal. In the long run, the Fed's dovish stance and expected multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit the A - share market. Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the national parenting subsidy system are expected to drive inflation and support the market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, with obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower. In September, the risk of significant fluctuations in the capital market is low, short - term bonds are relatively stable, and long - term bonds fluctuate more under the influence of stock market trends and government bond issuance [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market adjusted with fluctuations, with over 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets falling, and the trading volume reaching 2.15 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.23%. The market is expected to benefit from multiple factors in the long run, and the liquidity market will continue with structural characteristics [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 2470 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 87 billion yuan. Short - term bonds are stable, while long - term bonds fluctuate more [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH fell 0.38%, IF fell 0.60%, IC fell 0.69%, and IM fell 0.97% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.38%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.70%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.90%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.16% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.29% [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has achieved initial results in governing irrational competition in key industries such as new energy, automobiles, and photovoltaics. It will carry out special rectification actions against network chaos and regulate production behavior [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, showing their price trends from 2024 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures are presented, covering data from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [14][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: Charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates are provided, with data spanning from 2023 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [21][22][25]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续反弹，其中 WTI 10 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元 | | | | 至 62.63 美元/桶，涨幅 0.59%。布伦特 11 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美 | | | | 元至 66.39 美元/桶，涨幅 0.56%。SC2510 以 483.8 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 0.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.08%。卡塔尔首都多哈北部的卡塔拉地区 | | | | 发生爆炸事件。爆炸发生后，以色列国防军与以色列国家安全总 | | | | 局发表联合声明，证实其对哈马斯高级领导层实施了一次精确打 | | | 原油 | 击。消息人士表示，以色列当天袭击的目标是在多哈的哈马斯谈 | 震荡 | | | 判代表团。袭击发生时，哈马斯领导层正在举行会议，讨论此前 | | | | 一天美国总统特朗普提出的所谓停火提案。EIA 表示，未来几个 | | | | 月全球油价将大幅下跌，因 OPEC+产量上升将导致石油库存大幅 | | | ...

1. Index Movements - On September 8th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% to close at 3826.84 points with a trading volume of 1.025884 trillion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.61% to close at 12666.84 points with a trading volume of 1.392846 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.9% with a trading volume of 495.541 billion yuan, opening at 7257.33, closing at 7311.03, with a daily high of 7321.16 and a low of 7220.59 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.13% with a trading volume of 455.361 billion yuan, opening at 6927.41, closing at 6992.12, with a daily high of 6995.72 and a low of 6896.66 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.08% with a trading volume of 153.726 billion yuan, opening at 2940.98, closing at 2939.88, with a daily high of 2953.91 and a low of 2926.39 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 65.36 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Machinery, Automobiles, and Pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 78.17 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Power Equipment, Basic Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 7.25 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Pharmaceuticals, Food and Beverage, and Machinery pulling the index up, while Banking, Non - Banking Finance, and Telecommunications pulling it down [3]. - The SSE 50 fell 2.34 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Food and Beverage, Basic Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals pulling the index up, while Non - Banking Finance, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Banking pulling it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -55.59, IM01 -113.04, IM02 -250.1, and IM03 -424.17 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -51.81, IC01 -103.9, IC02 -212.74, and IC03 -353.45 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -10.92, IF01 -17.37, IF02 -35.6, and IF03 -52.86 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -3.99, IH01 -4.24, IH02 -3.28, and IH03 0.11 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC contracts, data shows point differences and annualized costs at different times, e.g., at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [25]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. [25]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [27]. - For IM contracts, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. [28]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8530 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.12%，持 仓增仓 3026 手至 28.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9359 元/吨，较上 一交易日下调 10 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现 货贴水转至升水 55 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 55710 元/ 吨，日内涨幅 1.52%，持仓减仓 31028 手至 15.4 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 6655 元/吨。工业硅供应增压，需求端面临晶硅减产预 期，有机硅旺季不佳叠加铝合金供应受限等综合压制，基本面向下驱 动强。短期因多晶硅政策情绪波及，整体深跌空间有限。工信部和市 场监管局联合印发稳增长行动方案，再度提出光伏反内卷治理方向。 短期政策预期给予强底部支撑。但排产持续增加叠加下游接受不佳， 库存高压未解。市场仍在静待 930 节能监察结果，短期投机性情绪卷土 重来，盘面波动较强。 请务必阅读正文之后 ...