工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/23 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅 | | | | | | | 主力 期货结算价（元/吨） | 9470 | 9710 | 240 | | | 近月 | 9425 | 9705 | 280 | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9450 | 9750 | 300 | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9400 | 9700 | 300 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9300 | 9600 | 300 | | | （元/吨） 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9300 | 9600 | 300 | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8850 | 9200 | 350 | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9850 | 10150 | 300 | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 9700 | 10000 | 300 | | | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.06%，报收 68.29 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 14180 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 15967 手至 53.82 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15411 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15543 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 6 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注重心更多在 | | | | 于宏观层面，美元指数低位震荡，7 月美联储议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息 | | | | 概率较大，关注预期是否会有变动，基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，郑棉期价日 | 宽幅震 | | | 内震荡走势。消息面，昨日商务部发言人称，中美将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日在瑞典举 | | | | 行会谈，关注谈判结果，或对棉价有新的驱动。近期郑棉驱动的主要因素是低进 | 荡 | | | 口、低库存的现 ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格震荡走弱，主力 09 合约收盘价 1773 元/吨，跌幅 1.83%。现货市 场报价多数稳定，局部地区小幅走弱。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1830 元 | 偏弱 | | | /吨、1850 元/吨，日环比分别降 10 元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素供应水平窄幅波 | | | | 动，昨日行业日产量 19.27 万吨，日环比提升 0.24 万吨。需求端跟进情绪继续放缓， | | | | 农业需求季节性空窗期，工业下游复合肥及胶板厂刚需采购，对市场支撑力度较为有 | | | | 限。即便本周尿素企业库存继续下降 4.1%，但基本面支撑整体不足。商品市场情绪 | | | | 出现分化，短期尿素市场若未有新增利好驱动因素，期价承压风险将持续增加，关注 | | | | 商品市场整体情绪、中下游采购节奏。 | | | 纯碱 | 周三纯碱期货价格震荡偏弱，现货市场坚挺运行，区域间价格波动趋势略有分化，碱 | 宽幅震荡 | | | 厂终端送到价格 1250～1350 元/吨左右。基本面来看，昨日行业开 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 2 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 770.5 | 755.0 | 15.5 | I05-I09 | -52.5 | -54.0 | 1.5 | | I09 | 823.0 | 809.0 | 14.0 | I09-I01 | 29.5 | 32.5 | -3.0 | | I01 | 793.5 | 776.5 | 17.0 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 21.5 | 1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 2.2 基差：图表 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | | | | | | | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米加权合约继续减仓调整，期价收带下引线的小阳线，价格延续震荡表 | | | | | | | 玉米 | | 震荡 | | 现。本周，玉米 | | | | | | | | 9 月合约连续三天减仓，期价呈现反弹表现。现货市场中，伴随 | | | 着进口玉米拍卖成交率的下滑，进口玉米拍卖对市场的影响也有所减弱，东北产 | | | | | | | | | | | 区市场整体的气氛有所恢复，东北玉米价格目前有所反弹。 | | | | | | | | 华北地区玉米价格 | | | 整体稳定， | | | | | | | | 个别企业窄幅上调，主流价格保持稳定。山东深加工企业玉米到货 | | | 量有所增加，但深加工企业玉米价格整体保持稳定。河南、河北少数企业价格窄 | | | | | | | | | | | 幅上调。销区市场玉米价格小幅反弹。周末产区玉米价格反弹 | | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.36%至 9933.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.16%至 79680 元/吨；国内现 | | | 货进口仍处于小幅亏损状态。宏观方面，8 月关税大限逼近，欧盟再度反击，拟对 1000 | | | 亿欧元的美国商品征收 30%关税，但随着特朗普称美日达成协议，日本接受 15%税率， | | | 市场对欧美也能达成协议表示乐观。另外，美财长称美中第三轮磋商将于下周再瑞典 | | | 举行。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 25 吨至 124825 吨；Comex 库存增加 1567 吨至 | | 铜 | 222723 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 9972 吨至 15535 吨；BC 铜仓单维系 4667 吨。需求方面， | | | 淡季影响延续消费疲软，但担忧铜价上涨推动部分企业提前补库。近期内蒙浮选事件 | | | 或引发选厂安全减产的担忧，加剧精矿紧张情绪，关注后续进展。接近 8 月 1 日重要 | | | 时间节点，虽然有诸多利多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.07% to 69,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 1,350 yuan/ton to 70,450 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 1,350 yuan/ton to 68,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 59,820 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 665 tons to 10,754 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 302 tons to 19,115 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 330 tons to 9,324 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 25 tons to 5,100 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 17 tons to 3,282 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 70 tons to 1,409 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 506 tons to 41,271 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,880 tons to 43,310 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 559 tons to 58,039 tons [3]. - Yesterday, the positions decreased and the lithium price fell. In the market, the news continued to ferment. The warehouse receipts increased slightly for two consecutive days, but the total inventory level was still low, and the lithium ore price was running strongly. In the short term, the price may still fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt inventory and the situation of mines in Jiangxi [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 23 and 22, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate, precursors, cathode materials, cells, and batteries. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract dropped from 72,880 yuan/ton on July 22 to 69,380 yuan/ton on July 23, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose from 50,750 yuan/ton to 51,000 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 2.3 Spreads - Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. 2.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate (power - type, medium - high - end energy storage, low - end energy storage), lithium manganate (power - type, capacity - type), and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. 2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [34][36]. 2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3274 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅 1%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3340 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.09 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 1.18 万吨至 418.02 万吨，社库回升 7.98 万吨至 546.62 万吨， | | | | 厂库回落 25.17 万吨至 305.76 万吨，建材表需回升 39.45 万吨至 435.21 万吨。建材产量小幅回落，库存再 | | | | 次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。近期反内卷、大基建等政策面消息不断，在很大程度上提振市场情绪， | | | | 不过市场现实供需有所趋弱。预计短期螺纹盘面将转入震荡整理走势。 | ...

Index Trends - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.3 points, with a trading volume of 857.046 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to close at 11059.04 points, with a trading volume of 1007.554 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.45% with a trading volume of 378.33 billion yuan. The opening price was 6634.12, the closing price was 6607.22, the highest price was 6667.86, and the lowest price was 6594.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.27% with a trading volume of 311.06 billion yuan. The opening price was 6218.21, the closing price was 6196.76, the highest price was 6256.15, and the lowest price was 6187.01 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.32% with a trading volume of 130.89 billion yuan. The opening price was 2798.96, the closing price was 2801.2, the highest price was 2824.86, and the lowest price was 2794.81 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 29.88 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Machinery, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 16.65 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Electronics and Machinery significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as Basic Chemicals, National Defense and Military Industry, and Power Equipment significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 0.81 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Household Appliances significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 9.02 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Non - Banking Finance, Banks, and Electronics significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Power Equipment, and Machinery significantly pulled the index down [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 48.5, IM01 was - 119.08, IM02 was - 302.24, and IM03 was - 461.12 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 34.98, IC01 was - 84.14, IC02 was - 208.95, and IC03 was - 322.64 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 5.22, IF01 was - 13.77, IF02 was - 44.24, and IF03 was - 74.51 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.54, IH01 was 0.86, IH02 was 3.02, and IH03 was 4.05 [12]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and annualized costs of IM, IC, IF, and IH futures at different time points are provided, including specific values at 09:45, 10:00, etc. [23][24][25]

光大期货金融期货日报 | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.11%，5 年 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 期主力合约跌 0.09%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.03%。中国央行开展 2148 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 3425 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | 国债 | 回笼 1277 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 加权利率上行 bp 至 1.37%，DR007 | 震荡 | | | 加权利率上行 1 bp 至 1.48%。6 月出口增速超预期，金融数据总量超预期同 | | | | 时结构持续改善，二季度 GDP 增速 5.2%，6 月经济数据保持韧性。经济保 | | | | 持韧性短期内降息预期较低，当前股债跷跷板效应明显，短期国债偏空运行。 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | ...