股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-10-17 一、指数走势 10 月 16 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.1%，收于 3916.23 点，成交额 8692.65 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.25%，收于 13086.41 点，成交额 10618.73 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.09%，成交额 3742.97 亿元，其中开盘价 7460.76，收盘价 7401.84，当日最高价 7472.75，最低价 7378.3； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.86%，成交额 3598.38 亿元，其中开盘价 7269.26，收盘价 7231.53，当日最高价 7305.95，最低价 7206.44； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.26%，成交额 5605.67 亿元，其中开盘价 4588.92，收盘价 4618.42，当日最高价 4645.1，最低价 4586.28； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.59%，成交额 1520.8 亿元，其中开盘价 2994.22，收盘价 3019.2，当日最高价 3028.57，最低价 2992.55。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米 11 月合约小阳线收盘。周初，玉米 11 月合约先跌后涨，期价下探后 | 震荡反弹 | | | 收小阳，期价跌破 2100 元整数关口，价格低位企稳呈现反弹表现。现货玉米报 | | | | 价延续下跌，但是天气转凉农户存粮积极性有所增加。 东北玉米价格偏弱运行， | | | | 产区上货量较为集中，农户售粮积极性较高，产区贸易商目前对市场稍显观望， | | | | 存货积极性稍显一般。北港目前到货量较多，走货一般，价格也有一定的压力。 | | | | 华北地区玉米价格继续下跌，其中潮粮价格跌幅大于干粮价格。今日降雨停滞， | | | 玉米 | 部分贸易商已经意向开始收购玉米，但由于潮粮居多，无烘干塔的贸易商收购依 | | | | 然谨慎。 销区市场玉米价格下跌为主。产区玉米集中上量，北港价格下调，叠 | | | | 加期货盘面下跌，销区港口贸易商报价下调 20-40 元/吨。下游港口提货速度一 | | | | 般，仍维持观望心态为主。技术上，玉米 11 月合约急跌，丰产预期压力逐步释 | | | | 放。东北本周迎来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract fell 0.6% to 72,720 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,104 tons to 33,076 tons [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The domestic weekly production continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but not significant impact on the import of lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by two major main materials increased 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials, electrolytes, and others increased 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while upstream increased inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there is still an expectation of project复产, and with the addition of overseas import increments, the domestic tight balance will gradually be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,025 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,725 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased 45 yuan to 6,025 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased 55 yuan to 7,125 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan to 73,180 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan to 78,150 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan to 67,900 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) dropped 0.03 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 50 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased 188 yuan to - 6,089.73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 2,000 yuan to 101,650 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) increased 1,200 yuan to 92,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,300 yuan to 85,550 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 1,000 yuan to 104,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 3,500 yuan to 125,425 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,000 yuan to 126,275 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) increased 1,200 yuan to 155,800 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained at 33,530 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) remained at 32,135 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) remained at 29,350 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (power type) dropped 1,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) dropped 250 yuan to 30,250 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased 9,500 yuan to 351,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells remained at 0.396 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at 0.41 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries remained at 4.42 yuan/piece; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained at 0.332 yuan/Wh; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) remained at 0.34 yuan/Wh; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased 0.1 yuan to 6.75 yuan/Ah; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at 0.303 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - **Price Spreads**: Charts 11 - 15 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][21] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][29] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33] - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 20, 2025, to October 9, 2025 [37][39] - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while in China, it fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot import window remained closed. High copper prices made downstream buyers cautious. The market is expected to remain cautious until substantial progress is made in Sino - US trade. Copper prices may stay at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina is generally bearish but may be bottoming out. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October." Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, but whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.3%, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.11%. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed Chairman's speech and the Fed's Beige Book have an impact on the market. High copper prices lead to downstream caution. The market is cautious about Sino - US trade. Copper prices may be high but are unlikely to exceed previous domestic highs [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, and aluminum prices showed different trends. Alumina production capacity at high costs has turned to losses and stopped production. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel had different price movements. Nickel ore is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy. The nickel - stainless steel and new - energy industries have different trends, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed different trends, and inventory increased slightly. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of some nickel products increased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc decreased, and inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The price of tin decreased, and inventory showed different trends [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in non - ferrous metal research [50][51].

Group 1: Index Trends - On October 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, with a trading volume of 961.552 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to close at 13118.75 points, with a trading volume of 1111.306 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.5% with a trading volume of 403.798 billion yuan, opening at 7384.01, closing at 7483.45, with a daily high of 7484.05 and a low of 7315.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.38% with a trading volume of 397.459 billion yuan, opening at 7205.74, closing at 7294.0, with a daily high of 7294.0 and a low of 7153.42 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.36% with a trading volume of 157.106 billion yuan, opening at 2962.75, closing at 3001.35, with a daily high of 3003.0 and a low of 2958.45 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.48% with a trading volume of 607.326 billion yuan, opening at 4544.24, closing at 4606.29, with a daily high of 4608.82 and a low of 4526.83 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 110.3 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 99.15 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 67.23 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - bank finance sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 40.25 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 10.46, IM01 was - 103.63, IM02 was - 188.68, IM03 was - 409.38 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 8.59, IC01 was - 90.05, IC02 was - 145.37, IC03 was - 306.52 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 1.45, IF01 was - 15.46, IF02 was - 25.74, IF03 was - 47.9 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.53, IH01 was - 2.86, IH02 was - 2.45, IH03 was - 1.31 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [28]. - For IC, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [29]. - For IF, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [24]. - For IH, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The current steel production remains high, inventory accumulates, and supply - demand pressure increases. With the weak data performance and the decline in new RMB loans in September, the short - term steel futures market is expected to continue to move weakly [1]. - Iron ore: Although the supply and demand of iron ore have declined, the demand is still at a high level, which provides strong support for prices. Under the influence of multiple factors, the short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [1]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is basically stable, and the market sentiment is fair. The iron - making production is still at a high level, but the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is poor, so the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coking enterprises' production is stable, and the downstream demand is good, but the steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the coke procurement is still cautious. Therefore, the short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The production of manganese silicon has slightly declined from the high level, and the demand is limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The cost of manganese ore has fluctuated. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon enterprises remains at a high level, the demand for steel is weak, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures continued to decline. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The national building materials production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and apparent demand increased slightly. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures price fell. The port spot price decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments declined, and the iron - making production decreased slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The spot price of some coal types increased. The supply was stable, and the demand remained high, but the profitability of downstream enterprises was poor. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined. The port spot price increased. The coking enterprises' production was stable, and the downstream demand was good, but the steel mills' profits were shrinking. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price in some regions increased. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in some regions increased. The production remained high, the demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was high. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 56.0, a decrease of 3.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different trends. For example, the 01 - contract basis of rebar is 156.0, an increase of 7.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have risen and fallen. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0, a decrease of 20.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties have changed. For example, the rebar futures profit is - 111.2, a decrease of 11.7 compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][31][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44] - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides the profit trends of rebar from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise in the black - commodity field [54][55]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea,纯碱, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Urea**: Demand shortage continues to suppress the price trends of urea futures and spot. The futures price shows signs of stopping decline but lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to view it from a bottom - oscillating perspective, and pay attention to the results of Indian tenders, export policy dynamics, northern weather, and spot trading conditions [1] - **纯碱**: The driving force in the soda ash market remains limited, and the futures price is mainly in low - level consolidation. Pay attention to the policy orientation of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee next week, macro - sentiment, and this week's inventory data [1] - **Glass**: The market sentiment of glass remains weak. After consecutive days of decline, the futures price may stop falling, but the rebound driving force is still insufficient. Pay attention to external factors such as policy orientation and macro - sentiment, as well as spot trading volume and this week's inventory data [1] Group 3: Market Information Summaries Urea - On October 15, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 6493, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day, with 21 valid forecasts [4] - On October 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.46 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons from the previous working day and 0.53 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 78.90%, a decrease of 6.26 percentage points from 85.16% in the same period last year [4] - On October 15, the spot prices of small - granular urea in various domestic regions remained unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 1540 yuan/ton [4] - As of October 15, the inventory of urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons (+11.88%) from last week [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On October 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7856, a decrease of 26 from the previous trading day, with 2371 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] - On October 15, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [7] - On October 15, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.28%, remaining stable day - on - day [8] - On October 15, the average price of the float glass market was 1249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton day - on - day. The daily output of the industry was 16.13 tons, remaining unchanged day - on - day [8] Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads of different contracts, and the price differences between related commodities of urea, soda ash, and glass [10][11][13] - All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [19] Group 5: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won relevant honors [23] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On October 15, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.12%, and the position decreasing by 18,484 lots to 144,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan remained stable at 9,557 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 240 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 50,865 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.37%, and the position decreasing by 2,224 lots to 79,164 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 1,745 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors of national regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, leading to a divergence in the trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the main variables are concentrated on the supply side. Large-scale production shutdowns are about to begin in the southwest. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations can be carried out at high levels for far-month contracts. There are also reports of the registration of a production capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November. Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production has continued to rise. Coupled with lower-than-expected bidding and a decline in domestic component production schedules, the overall terminal market remains weak. After November, major manufacturers will carry out maintenance, and the supply-demand pattern may improve fundamentally. The market is waiting for the meeting results and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment building up, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase due to news guidance [2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends on October 15. The market is affected by rumors of national regulation on photovoltaic production capacity, and the supply side is the main variable. Attention should be paid to production resumption in the north, and short-selling operations can be considered for far-month contracts. The supply-demand pattern may improve after November [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,520 yuan/ton on October 14 to 8,570 yuan/ton on October 15. The spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 410 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 51,197, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 251,405 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 49,990 yuan/ton on October 14 to 50,865 yuan/ton on October 15. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 2,520 yuan/ton to 1,745 yuan/ton [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][19][21]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [24][26][31]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of commodity research experience; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated October 16, 2025, provided by Guangqi Research [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents daily monitoring data on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads, along with relevant policy adjustments to the iron ore futures contract delivery rules [3][5][10] Summary by Directory Futures Contracts and Spreads - **Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 754.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan; I01 closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 21.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -43.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Basis - **Basis Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of BRBF increased by 2 yuan to 60 yuan/ton, and the basis of super special powder increased by 3 yuan to 148 yuan/ton [5] - **Basis Policy Adjustments**: Starting from December 2nd, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The delivery rules have been adjusted, including adding 4 deliverable varieties, adjusting brand premiums and discounts, and modifying substitute quality differences and quality premiums and discounts [10] Variety Spreads - **Spread Data**: The PB block - PB powder spread was 131.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; the PB powder - super special powder spread was 72.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - **Spread Charts**: The report provides multiple spread charts to visually display the changes in spreads over time [13][17]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.5%，报收 63.83 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.11%，报收 13270 | 承压运 行 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 12867 手至 58.09 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14400 元/吨，较前一日下降 25 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是市场关 | | | | 注重点，美对外关税政策、相关官员对外发言等。目前美国政府依旧处于停摆状 | | | | 态，何时恢复尚未可知，数据真空期，市场缺乏锚点，美元指数略偏弱，美棉期价 | | | | 重心小幅上移，预计短期仍处低位震荡状态。国内市场方面，虽然近期市场情绪稍 | | | | 有反复，但对棉价影响有限，市场关注重心仍更多在于新棉方面。国内新棉上市 | | | | 期，不仅本年度新棉总量创下 10 年新高，而且本年度新棉上市进度也较往年同期 | | | | 有所提前，短期供应压力与需求端存在阶段性不匹配 ...