1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 8, 2025, the 2505 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.43% to 70,280 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,400 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 200 yuan/ton to 70,450 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 100 yuan/ton to 69,250 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) declined 100 yuan to 74,375 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1380 tons to 28,403 tons [3]. - The supply growth rate slowed down. The weekly output increased by 307 tons to 17,625 tons, and the estimated lithium carbonate output in April is expected to increase 1.1% month - on - month to 80,000 tons. Demand remained in the peak season. The estimated output of ternary materials in April is expected to increase 7% month - on - month to 62,000 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase 0.7% month - on - month to 260,000 tons. In March, the national new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.14 million, a 37% year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory increased by 1477 tons to 129,000 tons, with increases in upstream and downstream and decreases in other links [3]. - Overseas macro disturbances led to a bearish market sentiment. In the short term, the spot market is relatively strong, and some upstream enterprises have shutdown/overhaul operations. However, the warehouse receipt inventory has been increasing recently. In the medium term, lithium ore supply will gradually become sufficient, and lithium ore prices show a slight downward trend, with the marginal cost support moving down. During the corporate earnings report season, most project costs have decreased. The ratio of available/long - term contracts has reduced the activity of zero - order procurement in the market, and the terminal and cathode inventories are under pressure. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on the demand side and the opportunity to short at high levels for the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 70,280 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 812 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1030 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.3 US dollars/kg [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 58,800 yuan/ton. Among the precursor and cathode materials, the prices of most products remained unchanged, while the prices of some products such as ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) decreased slightly. Among the battery products, the prices of some products such as square lithium iron phosphate battery cells decreased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 2024 to March 2025 [35][37]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.5%，报收 65.66 美分/磅，CF505 下跌 2.36%，报收 12835 元 | | | | /吨，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14325 元/吨，较前一日下跌 250 元/吨，中国棉花价 | | | | 格指数 3128B 级为 14594 元/吨，较前一日下降 221 元/吨。国际市场方面，美关税 | | | | 政策仍牵动全球市场情绪，目前有多国与美国寻求谈判，最终落地结果仍为可知， | 震荡偏 | | | ICE 美棉波动幅度扩大，需密切关注相关消息。国内市场方面，美国面对中国反制 | | | | 增加的 34%关税，威胁称要再加征 50%，外交部回应："中国必将奉陪到底"，市 | 弱 | | | 场情绪仍有波动，汇率突破 7.4。盘面走势来看，日内郑棉主力合约跌破 13000 元 | | | | /吨整数关口，最低至 12680 元/吨，创下 2022 年以来新低，尾盘跌幅收窄，夜盘 | | | | 跌幅扩大。我们认为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector showed a strong performance on Tuesday, with double - meal prices rising due to tariff policies. The overall view for each variety is as follows: corn is expected to be volatile and strong, soybean meal is expected to be volatile, oils are expected to be volatile, eggs are expected to be volatile and strong, and live pigs are expected to be volatile and strong [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, affected by tariff policies, the corn futures market saw a shift of long - and short - position main forces from the May contract to the July contract. The weighted contract positions decreased. In the spot market, the increase in import costs due to tariff hikes led to a firm price. The price in North China remained stable with minor adjustments, and the price in the sales area was generally stable. Technically, the July contract is expected to get support, with short - term attention on the 2330 price pressure and caution for price adjustment risks [2] - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to technical rebounds. The market is awaiting the latest USDA supply - demand report. Analysts predict that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 season will be 379 million bushels, and the global soybean inventory is expected to be 122.07 million tons. In the domestic market, the protein meal increased in positions and prices, and the soybean meal futures price reached a six - month high. The low operating rate of oil mills and reduced inventory provided support. The strategy is to view soybean meal as volatile and strong [2] - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil changed little. Crude oil and US soybean oil provided support, but concerns about rising palm oil inventories restricted price increases. The March supply - demand report of Malaysian palm oil is expected to show a 3% increase in inventory to 1.56 million tons. Rapeseed near - month contracts continued to rise. In the domestic market, the futures prices of oils stabilized, and rapeseed oil was resistant to decline. The inventory of the three major oils continued to decline, and the spot basis was firm. The operation suggestion is to participate intraday [2] - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures continued to rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the 2505 contract is stronger than the far - month contract. The spot price increased in some areas. In the short term, supported by the feed end, the spot and futures prices of eggs rebounded from low levels. However, considering the current egg - laying hen breeding market, the supply of eggs is likely to increase in the future, and the egg price is likely to have a weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal demand and feed costs on egg prices [2][3] - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the main live - pig contract continued to rebound. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US boosted the agricultural products sector, and the increase in feed raw material prices supported the pig price. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price rose slightly. In the futures market, the short - term pig price is boosted by rising raw materials, while the medium - term supply pressure still affects the market. In April, the game between macro and fundamentals continues, and short - term participation is recommended [3] 3.2 Market Information - Some European investors are withdrawing gold from the US due to concerns about Trump's trade policies [4] - Indonesia will adjust the export tax on crude palm oil to reduce the burden on exporters by about 5% [4] - Trump signed an executive order to promote the development of the US coal industry [4] - Trump supports large - scale spending cuts in the US government, with a target of over $1 trillion [4] - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US cars starting from 0:01 on the 9th, and will implement a relief plan for car manufacturers [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents contract spreads such as corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and live pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][10][13] - **Contract Basis**: The report shows contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][20][22] 3.4 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors [28] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with a long - term career in futures and many awards [28] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in team awards and media interviews [28]

1. Index Trends - On April 8th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.58% to close at 3145.55 points, with a trading volume of 730.166 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to close at 9424.68 points, with a trading volume of 895.477 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.61% with a trading volume of 342.26 billion yuan. It opened at 5475.56, closed at 5530.02, with a daily high of 5632.64 and a low of 5426.03 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.75% with a trading volume of 261.875 billion yuan. It opened at 5279.76, closed at 5326.91, with a daily high of 5371.18 and a low of 5249.23 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 2.28% with a trading volume of 153.823 billion yuan. It opened at 2526.51, closed at 2574.35, with a daily high of 2574.35 and a low of 2510.64 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose by 1.71% with a trading volume of 464.021 billion yuan. It opened at 3597.99, closed at 3650.76, with a daily high of 3650.76 and a low of 3583.87 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 33.58 points from the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and food and beverage had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors like power equipment, automobiles, and machinery had a downward pull [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 39.88 points from the previous close. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, food and beverage, and national defense and military industry had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors like machinery, automobiles, and electronics had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 61.32 points from the previous close. Sectors such as food and beverage, banks, and non - bank finance had a significant upward pull on the index, while the electronics sector had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 57.38 points from the previous close. Sectors such as food and beverage and banks had a significant upward pull on the index [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 46.67, IM01 of - 106.94, IM02 of - 177.48, and IM03 of - 334.59 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.82, IC01 of - 91.65, IC02 of - 158.57, and IC03 of - 280.69 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 26.87, IF01 of - 46.3, IF02 of - 76.42, and IF03 of - 125.36 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 12.24, IH01 of - 18.65, IH02 of - 28.61, and IH03 of - 55.78 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the annualized costs and 15 - minute average point differences for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts during the roll - over period [23][25][26][27].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 1.45%至 8588 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 1.25%至 72520 元/吨；国内现货进口窗口打开。宏观方面，市场仍聚焦贸易冲突升级，在美关税阴影 | | | | 下，海外金融市场再次陷入巨震，美股冲高后大幅回落，并带动市场情绪转弱。国内方 面，关注金融市场表现，股市是国内短线情绪风向标。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 | | | | 3225 吨至 213450 吨；SHFE 铜下降 8056 吨至 108768 吨；BC 铜下降 405 吨至 22553 | | | 铜 | 吨。需求方面，铜价回落，下游开工和订单均有提振，高铜价风险进一步释放下，下游 | | | | 预计存在积极补库动作。美对等关税落地并宣布铜和贵重金属暂不征收对等关税后，对 | | | | 比此前的表现铜价大幅回调是可以预料的。目前美铜伦铜价差回落至 500 美元/吨附 | | | | 近，结合美股崩盘走势，情绪仍会偏弱，但进一步走 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 42405 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.9%，持仓增仓 2807 手至 54034 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 405 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9550 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.26%，持仓减仓 10654 手至 15.95 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10560 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 35 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9450 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 45 元/吨。企业联合 减产量级有限且需求持续疲弱，硅厂关于后续减产扩大与否仍未达成共识，难以形 成持续有效去库效果。预计减产在消息端有一定稳定市场情绪作用，但过剩压力高 企状态下，市场对再次减产的反应将逐步弱化。4 月多晶硅交割业务开启，交仓承 载结构性需求，但现货成交未见增速，且期现贸易商和厂家关于远月定价意见分 歧。因缅甸地震导致国内西部拉棒厂家出现焖锅、炸棒、炸炉等情况，下游订单交 付期延后，库存压力显现后，短期晶硅盘面形成压制。 请务必阅读正文之后的免 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 8, the A-share market stabilized with the Wind All A index rising 1% and a trading volume of 1.65 trillion yuan. Policy-driven funds boosted the consumer and dividend sectors, while export - sensitive sectors like electronics, automotive, and textiles were weak. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.67%, but due to the previous day's futures contract suspension, the basis of the main contract widened significantly, with futures contract declines ranging from 1.65% to 2.28%. The CSI 500 rose 0.75%, the SSE 50 rose 2.8%, and the basis of large - cap indexes narrowed, with futures contracts rising more [1] - Under the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, the weighted tax rate on Chinese exports to the US may rise to around 66% (12% + 20% + 34%). Many countries are starting trade negotiations with the US, and it's necessary to watch if third - countries use the tariff hike on China as an opportunity to get the US to lower tariffs on them. This policy will have a long - term impact on the A - share market, and China's economic focus will shift more to the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumer - promotion logic more reasonable. Expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts have resurfaced, and the window for the central bank to buy treasury bonds may reopen. It is recommended to hold short positions in stock index futures and sell short positions in stock index options of the same expiration month for hedging [1] - On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.54%, the 10 - year down 0.17%, the 5 - year down 0.15%, and the 2 - year down 0.08%. The central bank conducted 167.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a stable rate of 1.5%. With 64.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net injection of 102.5 billion yuan. In the inter - bank market, the DR001 rate rose 0.81bp to 1.7517%, and the DR007 rate rose 3.4bp to 1.7767%. In the short term, the capital market will remain tight, with little possibility of significant loosening or tightening. After a full - fledged rise, the bond market has returned to a sideways consolidation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 8, 2025, IH was at 2,513.2 (up 2.95% from the previous day), IF at 3,543.8 (up 2.64%), IC at 5,271.0 (up 0.66%), and IM at 5,313.6 (down 2.19%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 was at 2,574.4 (up 2.28%), the SSE 300 at 3,650.8 (up 1.71%), the CSI 500 at 5,326.9 (up 0.75%), and the CSI 1000 at 5,530.0 (up 0.61%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS was at 102.58 (down 0.10%), TF at 106.27 (down 0.20%), T at 108.90 (down 0.26%), and TL at 120.02 (down 0.65%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.4753, 1.5447, 1.6572, and 1.8550 respectively, with increases of 4.49, 4.55, 2.42, and 3 basis points compared to the previous day [3] 3.2 Market News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated on the 8th that it will fully support central enterprises and their listed subsidiaries to increase shareholding and repurchase efforts, maintain shareholders' rights, boost market confidence, and enhance company value [4] - The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods on April 7. China firmly opposes this. If the US implements the tariff hike, China will take counter - measures. The US "reciprocal tariff" is a unilateral and bullying act, and China's counter - measures are legitimate. China urges the US to correct its actions, cancel all unilateral tariffs, and resolve disputes through dialogue [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures Charts**: Include the trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, and their respective basis trends over time [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures Charts**: Show the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rate Charts**: Display the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates, and currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [20][21][24]

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 43265 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.67%，持仓增仓 1788 手至 33190 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 1265 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9550 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.7%，持仓减仓 9409 手至 17.02 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10605 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 45 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9650 元/吨，现货贴水收至 20 元/吨。企业联合 减产量级有限且需求持续疲弱，硅厂关于后续减产扩大与否仍未达成共识，难以形 成持续有效去库效果。预计减产在消息端有一定稳定市场情绪作用，但过剩压力高 企状态下，市场对再次减产的反应将逐步弱化。4 月多晶硅交割业务开启，交仓承 载结构性需求，但现货成交未见增速，且期现贸易商和厂家关于远月定价意见分 歧。供需错配预期加码、多晶硅延续近强远弱格局，持续跟踪交割进度及产业库存 去化节奏。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FU ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面大幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2505 合约收盘价格为 3083 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 下跌 81 元/吨，跌幅为 2.56%，持仓减少 17.8 万手。现货价格下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 下跌 50 元/吨至 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 60 元/吨至 3150 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.22 | | | | 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 1.52%至 585.43 万吨，热卷库存下降 4.23%至 241.25 万吨，库 | | | | 存维持较明显降幅。美国宣布向贸易伙伴征收 10%至 49%的对等关税，税率和广度超出预期，震撼全球， | | | | 引爆悲观情绪，风险资产普遍下跌，黑色商品走势也受到明显影响。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将震荡偏弱运行。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2505 价格有所下跌，收于 762.5 ...