黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 27 元/吨，跌幅为 0.86%，持仓增加 0.09 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 3000 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.02 万吨。 | | | | 据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 5.52 万吨至 212.59 万吨，同比减少 30.63 万吨；社库环比 | | | | 回落 6.68 万吨至 430.81 万吨，同比增加 148.24 万吨；厂库环比回落 12.92 万吨至 171.71 万吨，同比增加 | | | | 17.01 万吨；螺纹表需环比回升 6.19 万吨至 232.19 万吨，同比减少 8.49 万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存维 | | | | 持较大幅度降幅，表需回升，螺纹供需数据有 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜 铜价震荡走弱，沪铜小幅收跌，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口保持关闭状态。宏 | LME | | | 观方面，美国财长贝森特表示将于圣诞节前后选出美联储新主席任选；美国参议院宣 | | | | 布，已批准终止总统为实施全球关税而宣布的国家紧急状态的联合决议；美联储降息 | | | | 后欧央行和日央行选择按兵不动。另外，中美两国元首在韩国举行会晤，深入讨论了中 | | | | 美经贸关系等议题，同意加强经贸等领域合作。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 400 吨至 | | | | 134950 吨；Comex 铜增加 1841 吨至 316304 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1692 吨至 37437 吨， | | | | BC 10960 吨。需求方面，铜价走高，下游采购谨慎。昨晚鲍威尔偏鹰派言论引 | 铜维系 | | 铜 | 发美股抛售，虽然中美经贸取得进展，但市场风险偏好有所下降，铜价走弱。不过，随 | | | | 着俄乌地缘政治缓和、中美经贸 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.39% to 65.09 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,600 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 902 lots to 577,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,545 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, Powell unexpectedly took a hawkish stance, reducing the probability of a 25BP rate cut in December, but it's still likely. After the China - U.S. summit in South Korea, there was some easing in tariffs. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated around 13,600 yuan per ton. The market sentiment was divided. Looking ahead, there are relatively optimistic expectations for the macro and fundamentals. The current supply peak will gradually ease, and the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose. Zhengzhou cotton has a bottom support, and the upward drive depends more on the macro level [1]. - For sugar, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the government of Uttar Pradesh will raise the sugar - cane price by up to 300 rupees per ton. The purchase price of early - maturing sugar - cane is set at 4,000 rupees per ton (equivalent to 321.24 yuan per ton), and that of ordinary varieties is 3,900 rupees per ton (equivalent to 313.21 yuan per ton). The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,660 - 5,750 yuan per ton, with only a few down 10 yuan per ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,590 - 5,640 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar is 5,790 - 5,950 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged. The Fed's rate cut was in line with market expectations and had limited impact. Raw sugar continued to hit new lows on Thursday, lacking buying and a bottom - finding drive. Domestic Yunnan sugar mills have started crushing, and Guangxi will start in mid - November. Benefiting from restricted imports of syrup, the price shows strong resistance to decline, but the rebound is weak under the high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference should be watched [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by Fed's interest - rate policy and China - U.S. tariff relations. Domestically, the futures price fluctuates around 13,600 yuan per ton. There are optimistic expectations for the future, and the supply pressure will ease. Zhengzhou cotton has bottom support, and the upward drive depends on the macro level [1]. - **Sugar**: The government of Uttar Pradesh raises the sugar - cane price. The spot price of sugar has little change. Raw sugar hits new lows, and the domestic sugar price shows resistance to decline but weak rebound under high - yield expectation. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,243 yuan, up 23 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,658 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan, and the national average is 14,843 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan, unchanged; the main - contract basis is 278 yuan, up 22 yuan. The spot price in Nanning and Liuzhou is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,434, down 26 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,228. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,658 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,873 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,884 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,954 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, down 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 30, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou was 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,541, down 84 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 586 [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse - receipt data of the main contracts, showing the historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [6][15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock market is expected to continue its structured bullish trend. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's communique boosts market confidence, but caution is advised when chasing high in the Sci - tech Innovation Index due to its historical extreme valuation. Attention should be paid to the third - quarter report index revenue year - on - year data this week [1]. - The bond market is expected to be bullish in the short term as the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient liquidity. However, without interest rate cuts and with rising market risk appetite, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous growth and should be viewed with an interval - oscillation mindset [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - The market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both falling more than 1%. The communique focuses on several major themes, which are in line with market expectations and boost market confidence. The current valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, and caution is needed when chasing high. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations are constructive, and this week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 30, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The central bank governor said that the central bank will resume treasury bond trading and explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions. In the short term, the bond market is expected to be bullish, but it lacks the impetus for continuous growth [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined on October 30 compared to October 29, with declines of 0.65%, 0.90%, 1.23%, and 1.10% respectively. For stock indices, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines of 0.54%, 0.80%, 1.27%, and 1.11% respectively. For treasury bond futures, TS declined by 0.02%, TF remained stable, T rose by 0.06%, and TL rose by 0.28% [3]. 3. Market News - A total of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, including 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 100 billion yuan from the Export - Import Bank of China, and 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank of China, which is expected to drive total project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [4]. 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][8][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen from 2023 to 2025 [20][22][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Group 1: Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: The rating is "Oscillating Downward" [1] - Soybean Meal: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Oils and Fats: The rating is "Declining" [1] - Eggs: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Pigs: The rating is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2601 contract closed with a small negative line after opening flat, showing an oscillating performance. The supply of new grain in the spot market has increased, and the supply pressure of corn in Jilin has been transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. The prices in North China are running steadily with a slight upward trend. The prices in the sales areas are mainly weak. The downstream feed enterprises are mostly waiting and watching, and the port traders are actively selling. Technically, the main 2601 contract is under pressure to rebound, and the long - term outlook is bearish [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans remained flat. The market is optimistic about the demand outlook and is concerned about the trade situation and the US government shutdown. Domestically, soybean meal is oscillating narrowly, and the funds are cautious. There are many rumors about US soybean purchases, and the results of the Sino - US leaders' talks should be closely watched. The spot price of soybean meal has followed the increase, but the market trading is sluggish [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the fourth consecutive day and the second consecutive month, following the decline of the surrounding markets. The expected over - production in Indonesia has also depressed the market. Domestically, palm oil continued to decline and stopped falling at night. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the tariff adjustments between the US and Malaysia [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to rebound, with the main 2512 contract rising 2.13%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline slightly. There is a game between short - term supply pressure and supply improvement, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in the farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flocks [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a small positive line close to a doji, and the futures price was blocked from rising and moved down in the range. The spot prices in production and sales areas are running strongly, but the price increase in Shandong and Hebei has slowed down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects the prices of live pigs and pork to stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous policy of controlling the breeding sows and reducing the inventory and the supply pressure, it is expected that the futures price will return to a slow decline after the rebound [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year [3]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there seems to be a change. There is a possibility of a compromise on the temporary appropriation bill next week [3]. - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume the strike next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with the employers [3]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - China has made its first purchase of US soybeans this harvest season, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not given a specific comment [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The spreads include those of corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 [6][7][11][15] 4.2 Contract Basis - The basis includes those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][17][18][23] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading the team [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton rose 1.38% to 65.95 cents/pound, and CF601 rose 0.41% to 13,620 yuan/ton. The current supply peak has passed, and supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose this year. Macro - level positive news, such as the confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea during the APEC meeting, gives hope for tariff policy adjustment. The bottom of Zhengzhou cotton has support, and upward drive depends on whether there will be unexpected progress during the APEC meeting [1]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress, and the concern about Indian exports is mainly emotional. Raw sugar has limited rebound under the background of increased production in the northern hemisphere and expected continued increase in Brazil's 26/27 sugar season. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is still fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market faces risks in further rebound, so it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 rose on Wednesday. The main contract's open interest decreased by 596 lots to 578,500 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index rose by 10 yuan/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks made the US dollar index strong. The confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders supports the US cotton price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, and future macro and fundamental factors are likely to improve [1]. - **Sugar**: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different adjustments. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress. Raw sugar has limited rebound due to expected increased production. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market is in a stalemate and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 5 with no change, the main contract basis is 1220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton, and the national spot price is 14,840 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan/ton with an increase of 13 yuan/ton, the main contract basis is 256 yuan/ton with a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The Nanning and Liuzhou spot prices are both 5,750 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 17 to 2,471, and the number of effective forecasts was 882. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,650 yuan/ton, Henan 14,871 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,884 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,956 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.2, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.9, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 29, the Nanning and Liuzhou spot sugar prices were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 7,625, and the number of effective forecasts was 586 [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton and sugar, as well as the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many industry - related awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many industry - related awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.61%. The position increased by 8,992 lots to 221,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,554 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 330 yuan/ton. Southwest production cuts are imminent, silicon factories are holding onto their goods and raising prices, and the costs of silicon coal and electricity are rising, causing the operating center of industrial silicon to move upward [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. The position increased by 3,498 lots to 118,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium turned into a discount of 860 yuan/ton. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, silicon wafer production cuts after November are basically certain. The weekly silicon wafer production schedule has increased significantly. The current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated pre - quota production rush by enterprises, and it cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production rush. Recently, the industry has announced that 17 enterprises have signed the capacity storage platform, and combined with the fact that downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports the continued strong operation of polysilicon [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend on October 29th. The reasons for the upward movement of industrial silicon include production cuts in the Southwest, silicon factories holding onto goods and raising prices, and rising costs of silicon coal and electricity. For polysilicon, factors such as industry quota arrangements, production rush, and the capacity storage platform signing support its strong operation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,955 yuan/ton on October 28th to 9,170 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable, with only the price of oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Huangpu Port increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 200 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 706 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 54,355 yuan/ton on October 28th to 54,990 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 635 yuan/ton. The price of N - type polysilicon dense materials and recycled materials decreased by 500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium turned into a discount, with a decrease of 1,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 24,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable [3]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][21]. - **Inventory**: The charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [30][32][37].

一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜价震荡偏强，盘中价格创历史新高，国内震荡偏强，价格也创出历史新高， | | | 国内精炼铜现货进口窗口保持关闭状态。宏观方面，美联储 10 月议息会议上如期降息， | | | 但新闻发布会上鲍威尔传达出偏鹰派观点，一是美联储内部分歧较大，12 月再次降息 | | | 并非板上钉钉的事；二是，经济活动正在以温和的速度扩张，但就业市场仍然在降温， | | | 通胀更加温和；三是决定自 12 月 1 日起结束缩表。今天的意见分歧非常大。国内方面， | | | 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》全文出台，提振 | | | 市场对经济信心。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 775 吨至 135350 吨；Comex 铜下降 1547 | | | 吨至 314490 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 101 吨至 35745 吨，BC 铜维系 10960 吨。需求方 | | 铜 | 面，铜价走高，下游采购谨慎。中美两国元首会晤提振市场情绪，虽然美联储鲍威尔降 | | | 息立场偏鹰派，但结束缩表仍被市场理解为保持较为 ...

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 1.38%，报收 65.95 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.41%，报收 13620 | 偏强震 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 596 手至 57.85 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14535 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 10 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是市场关注重点。美 | | | | 联储如期降息 25BP，市场对此已有充分定价，但鲍威尔意外放鹰，超出市场预期， | | | | 美元指数偏强。中美元首确认在韩国会晤，市场对此有一定期待，情绪端对美棉 | | | 棉花 | 价格有一定支撑。国内市场方面，郑棉期价重心回升至 13600 元/吨以上，我们认 | | | | 为，当前位置支撑较强。一方面，当前已经是年内供应高峰，随着时间推移，供 | 荡 | | | 应压力会逐渐减弱，而且本年度国内棉花供需格局并非十分宽松。另一方面，宏 | | | | 观层面利好消息不断，中美元首将在 APEC 会议期间在韩国会晤，市场对关税政 | | | | 策调整有一定想象空间。 ...