Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to experience a slightly weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside space and the need for stronger drivers to break through previous support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and the opening price of new cotton [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term due to concerns about increased production and high supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE cotton fell 0.49% to 66.92 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.08% to 13,765 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 10,790 lots to 502,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,890 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences in the dot - plot's prediction of the future interest - rate cut path. The US dollar index strengthened, causing the price of US cotton to decline. Domestically, the market focuses on market sentiment and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. This year's new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, with the expected opening price of machine - picked cotton at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram and the processing cost around 14,000 yuan per ton. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. The operating load of downstream textile enterprises has improved seasonally, providing some support to the demand side [2]. - **Sugar**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.6121 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86% year - on - year. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 4.0739 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 277,200 tons or 6.37% year - on - year. Spot prices have been lowered. After the release of Brazil's sugar production and sales data in August, concerns in the market subsided, and the certainty of increased production became stronger, putting pressure on futures prices. In China, the combination of multiple sugar supplies and high imports has weighed on market sentiment, causing prices to fall below previous lows [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,554 yuan, up 134 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan, and the national average was 15,319 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 451 yuan, up 45 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - On September 18, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 177 to 4,438, with 12 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 18, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 15,249 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,309 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,344 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 18, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.3, down 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 52.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.2, down 0.2 [4]. - On September 18, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 18, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 359 to 10,629, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar futures, with data spanning from 2021 - 2025 [7][15][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has also won several awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Palm Oil: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating and slightly bullish [1][2] - Pigs: Oscillating and slightly bearish [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn futures' November contract shows a technical rebound after continuous decline, with the spot market facing increased pressure from new corn listings. Short - term attention is on whether the contract can break through the price low in mid - August, and the medium - term operation follows a bearish idea [1]. - CBOT soybean meal and soybean prices decline due to a stronger dollar and US harvest pressure. Domestic two - meal prices continue to fall, and the strategy is to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - The egg futures' 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound at the end of the session. The spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - The pig futures' 2511 contract continues to decline. The spot price also drops, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the pig price may remain weak, but it may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract rebounds technically after a continuous decline. The spot market in the production area expects an increase in new corn listings after mid - September, and the price in the Liaoning production area weakens. In the North China region, the price continues to be weak, and the price in the sales area is temporarily stable. The short - term is to beware of a rebound after a sharp decline, and the medium - term is bearish [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fall due to a stronger dollar and harvest pressure. The export sales of US soybeans meet expectations, and domestic two - meal prices reach a one - and - a - half - month low. The strategy is short - term participation [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows a decrease in exports. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound, and the spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. The demand is weak, and the short - term pig price may remain weak. It may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Market Information - From September 14th to 17th, Liu Huanxin led a team to investigate grain and material reserve work in Heilongjiang, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and logistics facilities projects [3]. - Zhengshang Institute cancels the designated delivery warehouse qualification of Orient Group Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd. for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [3]. - In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: It includes the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][18][24] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and achievements [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.74% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 74,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 120 tons to 39,354 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased 400 tons to 20,363 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased 160 tons to 12,869 tons, from lepidolite increased 130 tons to 2,860 tons, from salt lakes increased 90 tons to 2,745 tons, and from recycling increased 20 tons to 1,889 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased 158 tons to 166 tons, and the inventory decreased 16 tons to 17,454 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 630 tons to 78,143 tons, and the inventory increased 775 tons to 96,217 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased 981 tons to 137,531 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 1,216 tons to 59,495 tons, intermediate link inventory decreasing 440 tons to 43,580 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing 1,757 tons to 34,456 tons [3]. - Under the expectation of project复产, the long - position logic has been weakened. However, from the current fundamentals, inventory destocking has accelerated. Before the actual复产 of the projects, in the context of strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs to be continuously monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,880 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,620 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,105 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,025 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 71,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 550 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,536 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate products also increased slightly, while the prices of some products such as manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Batteries**: The prices of most lithium battery products remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13][14][15][16]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][26][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [38][39][40][41]. - **Production Costs**: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42][43]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research and have won many awards and recognition [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend with a slightly weak short - term trend. The supply has increased, demand is weak, inventory has accumulated, and there may be further price cuts before the National Day. Attention should be paid to double - festival stocking, exports, international market dynamics, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Soda ash futures prices are short - term weak with limited fundamental drivers. The market will fluctuate significantly following industry capacity changes and external factors. Attention should be paid to new capacity implementation, anti - involution policy implementation progress, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices will enter a wide - range oscillation phase in the short term with weak intraday sentiment. There may be phased performance following macro - sentiment, policies, and peak - season demand. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, overall commodity market trends, and glass demand [1]. Summary by Catalog Research Viewpoints - **Urea**: On Thursday, the urea futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1670 yuan/ton, down 0.65% day - on - day. The spot market declined slightly. The supply increased with a daily output of 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons day - on - day. Demand was weak, with the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas mostly between 10% - 30%. The enterprise inventory increased by 2.88%. The overall supply - demand situation is weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market was basically stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 1.76 percentage points, and the output dropped by 2.02%. The demand was stable, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 2.33% compared to last Thursday but increased by 0.49% compared to Monday [1]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.19% slightly. The spot market continued to warm up. The daily melting volume was stable at 16.02 million tons. The demand was relatively active, and the glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, but the demand pattern did not change significantly [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On September 18, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 8188, down 80 from the previous trading day, with 49 valid forecasts. The daily output was 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons from the previous day and 0.31 million tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.34%, down 2.85 percentage points from the same period last year. The enterprise inventory as of September 17 was 116.53 million tons, up 3.26 million tons or 2.88% from last week [4][5]. - **Soda ash and Glass**: On September 18, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 35, with 5770 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 754, down 286 from the previous trading day. The soda ash industry's operating rate for the week ending September 18 was 85.53%, down 1.76 percentage points week - on - week. The output was 74.57 million tons, down 1.54 million tons or 2.02% week - on - week. The glass market average price on September 18 was 1166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton day - on - day. The industry's daily output was 16.02 million tons, unchanged day - on - day. The glass sample enterprise inventory as of September 18 was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.10% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year [7][8]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][20]. Research Team Introduction - The research team members include Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for urea, soda ash, and glass futures research; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,905 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%, and the position decreased by 621 lots to 285,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,483 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 180 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 53,205 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 3,400 lots to 123,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 705 yuan/ton. There are intertwined positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed to set limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminate backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establish a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both fluctuated weakly on September 18. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, suppressing prices [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Price**: Industrial silicon's main contract increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's main contract decreased by 285 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Price**: Most of the spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon remained unchanged, with the spot discount of industrial silicon widening and that of polysilicon narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory remained unchanged, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Price**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16][17][18][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][23][24][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [27][28][29][31][32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices declining in the afternoon. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The economic data for August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment, indicating that the economy is still on the path to bottom - out and stabilize. The current market mainly reflects long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited [1]. - In the long run, the Federal Reserve is likely to start an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the market expects three interest - rate cuts within the year. The interest - rate cut channel for A - shares may also open, which is beneficial for the medium - and long - term stock index of equity assets [1]. - The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. In the future, the central bank's purchase of national debt to raise funds for the central government and the introduction of more inclusive fiscal support programs will be an important way to stabilize and boost China's inflation [1]. - The liquidity - driven market is expected to continue, but it shows obvious structural characteristics, and the rotation of market sectors may accelerate [1]. - Recently, the bond market has been affected by a large - scale redemption of bond funds. In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the PPI bottomed out and rebounded. The growth of social financing declined as expected, the real - economy financing demand was weak, and the phenomenon of residents moving their deposits continued. In the short term, with the complex fundamental situation, there is no clear turning - point signal in the bond market, and it is still expected to move in a wide range [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH: From 2,956.2 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 43.8 points or 1.48% [3]. - IF: From 4,553.2 on September 17, 2025, to 4,448.2 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 105.0 points or 2.31% [3]. - IC: From 7,252.4 on September 17, 2025, to 6,985.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 267.0 points or 3.68% [3]. - IM: From 7,547.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,454.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 92.2 points or 1.22% [3]. Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite 50: From 2,952.8 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 40.0 points or 1.35% [3]. - CSI 300: From 4,551.0 on September 17, 2025, to 4,498.1 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 52.9 points or 1.16% [3]. - CSI 500: From 7,260.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,199.9 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 60.2 points or 0.83% [3]. - CSI 1000: From 7,554.8 on September 17, 2025, to 7,476.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 78.4 points or 1.04% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS: From 102.46 on September 17, 2025, to 102.41 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.046 points or 0.04% [3]. - TF: From 105.89 on September 17, 2025, to 105.82 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.07 points or 0.07% [3]. - T: From 108.16 on September 17, 2025, to 108.08 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.075 points or 0.07% [3]. - TL: From 115.88 on September 17, 2025, to 115.62 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26 points or 0.22% [3]. 2. Market News - Market Trend: The market rose in the morning and then declined in the afternoon. All three major indices closed lower. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [5]. - Industry Sectors: The automobile service, high - bandwidth memory, tourism, and CPO sectors led the gains, while the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, and securities sectors led the losses [5]. - Popular Concepts: Tourism stocks strengthened against the trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit. CPO and other computing - hardware stocks were active, with Decentel and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable hitting the daily limit. Semiconductor chip stocks rose first and then fell, with Microport and Saiwei Micro - Electronics rising more than 10%. On the downside, gold stocks declined collectively, with Xiaocheng Technology falling more than 8%; securities and fintech stocks adjusted, with DZH falling more than 8% [5]. 3. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, as well as the corresponding stock - index trends [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury - bond futures contracts, the yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [23][24][25][27][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show a volatile trend [1][3][4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, WTI October contract closed down $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; Brent November contract closed down $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; SC2511 closed at 488.8 yuan per barrel, down 7.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.51% decline [1]. - Ukraine increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with two Russian refineries attacked and a petrochemical plant on fire. The EU plans to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027, opposed by Hungary and Slovakia [1]. - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased 8.9% from July to 9.44 million tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. After the Fed's interest - rate hike, oil prices will remain volatile [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 1.24% at 2798 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed down 1.07% at 3410 yuan per ton [3]. - As of September 17, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 111.8 million barrels (14.21%) week - on - week; Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 170.5 million barrels (24.03%) week - on - week [3]. - Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia, the market will remain well - supplied before October. The high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand and weak refining margins, but supply is still abundant. The prices of FU and LU will follow the cost - end crude oil fluctuations [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the SHFE closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan per ton [3]. - This week, the shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises reached 20.2%, a 1.7% week - on - week and 3.6% year - on - year increase, hitting a three - year high [3]. - Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September. Demand in the north is supported by good weather, while the south faces increased rainfall. Considering the continuous losses of non - quota refineries, supply pressure is limited. With the arrival of the peak demand season, asphalt prices may rise, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA601 closed at 4666 yuan per ton, down 0.98%; EG2601 closed at 4268 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. PX futures closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.3% [4]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, with an average sales rate of 40% - 50%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for maintenance from October 10 for 20 - 30 days; a 600,000 - ton/year plant in Xinjiang is restarting; two US MEG plants with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year have shut down for about a month [4]. - As of September 18, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.93%, up 0.02% from the previous period. PX supply has recovered, and downstream TA has new maintenance, so PX prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices. With the increase in TA maintenance in the fourth quarter and the rebound in the peak demand season, TA fundamentals are expected to improve. For ethylene glycol, effective supply recovery in October depends on the restart of Satellite Petrochemical. The port inventory is expected to remain low, but the far - month supply is abundant, and the downstream demand improvement is less than expected, with a strong expectation of basis correction [4]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 310 yuan per ton to 15,570 yuan per ton; the NR main contract fell 290 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 175 yuan per ton to 11,415 yuan per ton [6]. - This week, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' full - steel tires was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the macro - environment weakened, and rubber products led the decline. Typhoons brought limited rainfall to domestic rubber - producing areas, and production is expected to recover. Tire operating rates were flat week - on - week, and automobile sales in the fourth quarter are estimated to reach 8.38 million, a 3% increase for the year, with less sales pressure. Rubber supply and demand are both increasing, and rubber prices will fluctuate with the macro - environment [6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2247 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2090 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $264 - 268 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $324 - 329 per ton [6]. - Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1075 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2500 - 2560 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5160 yuan per ton [6][8]. - Recently, many domestic methanol plants have been under maintenance, resulting in a temporary low supply. Overseas, Iranian plants have high operating loads, and although there are short - term shutdowns, shipping volumes are stable, and arrivals are expected to remain high. The Xingxing plant has restarted, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing, with port inventory expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to reach a phased bottom [8]. 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. Oil - based PP had a loss of 481.35 yuan per ton, coal - based PP had a profit of 399.87 yuan per ton, methanol - based PP had a loss of 980.67 yuan per ton, propane - dehydrogenated PP had a loss of 839.47 yuan per ton, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP had a loss of 411.47 yuan per ton [8]. - For PE, HDPE film prices were 8023 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from last week; LDPE film prices were 9639 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; LLDPE film prices were 7447 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton [8]. - Supply will remain high and volatile. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, orders are picking up, and the industry's operating rate is rising. Polyolefin demand is marginally improving, supply changes are limited, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, but the cost side is under pressure, and polyolefin prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8]. 3.1.8 PVC - On Thursday, the East China PVC market partially declined, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4720 - 4850 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4900 - 5050 yuan per ton; the North China PVC market was stable, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4660 - 4820 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4840 - 4980 yuan per ton; the South China PVC market was range - bound, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4850 - 4900 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4920 - 5020 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but is still weak year - on - year. The operating rates of pipes and profiles are expected to increase slightly. Supply remains high and volatile, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken due to India's anti - dumping policy. Although the basis and inter - month spread are high, inventory has been transferred from refineries to the market, and the total inventory pressure is large. However, this has been priced in. The market is now trading on the "anti - involution" concept, and short - term PVC prices may rebound but with limited upside [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, and futures price of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash, as well as their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9.44 million tons due to the completion of refinery maintenance and increased fuel production. Exports from Baltic ports increased by 12.3% to 5.326 million tons, those from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports increased by 3.6% to 3.392 million tons, and those from Arctic ports decreased by 22.6% to 30,700 tons [12]. - Kuwait's oil minister, Tariq Al - Roumi, expects an increase in oil demand after the US interest - rate cut, especially in the Asian market. He also believes that new sanctions on Russia will have a positive impact on oil prices [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [14][15][18][20][22][26][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts show the basis of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][35][38][41][42]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of inter - period contract spreads for fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][53][57][59]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - Charts display inter - variety spreads, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][68][69]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report includes charts of production profits for ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of several analysts: - Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research, has over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives research [77]. - Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - Di Yilin, a rubber and polyester analyst, is good at data analysis [79]. - Peng Haibo, an analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on September 18, 2025, including the performance of major stock indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points difference and annualized costs during futures contract roll - overs. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15% to close at 3831.66 points, with a trading volume of 1365.962 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, with a trading volume of 1769.195 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.04%, with a trading volume of 654.023 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.83%, with a trading volume of 604.239 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 1.35%, with a trading volume of 225.774 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index decreased 1.16%, with a trading volume of 839.987 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 78.41 points from the previous close, with the computer and non - ferrous metals sectors having a significant downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 60.16 points, with the communication sector having an upward pull and the computer, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 Index declined 52.91 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the power equipment, bank, and non - bank finance sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 39.95 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the food and beverage, non - bank finance, and bank sectors having a downward pull [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 10.97, IM01 of - 77.58, IM02 of - 228.34, and IM03 of - 431.8 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 12.09, IC01 of - 71.04, IC02 of - 190.65, and IC03 of - 354.99 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.86, IF01 of - 15.27, IF02 of - 41.07, and IF03 of - 67.9 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.7, IH01 of - 1.84, IH02 of - 2.08, and IH03 of 0.78 [12]. Stock Index Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the points difference and annualized costs during the roll - over of IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals (15 - minute averages) are provided, including values such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc., and their corresponding annualized costs [19][20][23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 17, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.06%, and the position decreasing by 1,511 lots to 286,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 125 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.09%, and the position decreasing by 1,545 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material and the lowest deliverable silicon material both rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 990 yuan/ton. There are mixed positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, suppressing prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Prices**: For industrial silicon, the main contract decreased from 8,970 yuan/ton on September 16 to 8,925 yuan/ton on September 17, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the main contract decreased from 53,670 yuan/ton to 53,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 53,700 yuan/ton to 53,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Among industrial silicon spot prices, the prices of some grades in certain regions increased. For example, the price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port and Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most polysilicon spot grades remained unchanged. Among organic silicon spot prices, the DMC price in the East China market increased by 100 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 24 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons. The inventory in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port remained unchanged, while the factory warehouse inventory increased by 1,400 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 300 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [28][30][34].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 763.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; I01 closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [3] - The spread between I05 - I09 was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I09 - I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; I01 - I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, prices and basis values changed. For example, the price of Carajás fines (Carajás) was 919 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan, and the basis was 76 yuan, up 2 yuan [5] - Some varieties saw price decreases, like PB fines, whose price dropped by 2.0 yuan to 795 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 3 yuan to 40 yuan [5] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties were added: Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others at 0 yuan/ton [10] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [10] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB lump and PB fines was 131.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; the spread between PB fines and FMG mixed fines was 42.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - Some spreads increased, such as the spread between Carajás fines and PB fines, which rose by 5.0 yuan to 124.0 yuan/ton [12] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [22]