碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-19 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 73420 | 73960 | -540 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 73200 | 73760 | -560 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 860 | 859 | 1 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 1165 | 1150 | 15 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1900 | 1880 | 20 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 6090 | 6090 | 0 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, industrial silicon had a weak and volatile performance. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.83%, and the open interest decreased by 25,607 lots to 285,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,604 yuan/ton, up 121 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.63%, and the open interest increased by 8,068 lots to 124,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount turning into a premium of 1,510 yuan/ton. [2] - In the short term, industrial silicon is supported by cost but suppressed by high inventory. For polysilicon, a draft of the energy consumption policy has been released, with a slight increase in the standards for grades 1 and 2, but the forced clearance is relatively mild. Trump plans to include silicon products in the tax list. Amid the unimplemented domestic and foreign policies, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon. The policy direction deviates from the actual supply - demand situation, resulting in a pattern of short - term pressure and long - term strength. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - The performance of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures on September 22, including price changes, open interest changes, and spot price movements, was analyzed. The short - term situation of industrial silicon and the impact of policies on polysilicon were also discussed, pointing out the coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure for industrial silicon, and the complex situation of polysilicon under policy and supply - demand factors. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions increased, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowing significantly. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 72, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 620 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,800 tons. The substitution delivery premium of 421 changed, and regional price differences were set. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. The spot prices of various types remained unchanged. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30, the GFE inventory increased by 0.2 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons. The substitution delivery premium of P - type was set, and no regional price differences were set. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil in the East China market all increased. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [14][15] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Charts displayed the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [23][24][26] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [29][31][35] 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional achievements, and contact information provided. [37][38][39]

Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher. The divergence within the Fed and the Trump administration's interference with Fed policies may be a major market concern. Domestically, the central bank governor stated that there would be no short - term policy adjustments, and China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons to 288,746 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.45 million tons. Downstream demand is weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. After the Fed's meeting, copper prices remain cautious due to potential market避险情绪 and overseas macro risks during the holiday [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina plants' continuous resumption of production increases social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production and ore shipments have decreased, causing ore inventories to decline. Although alumina is generally bearish, it has basically bottomed out. Aluminum ingots have not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. As the double festivals approach, downstream industries are in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years. Aluminum prices remain strong, scrap aluminum prices are firm, and the aluminum alloy market continues to trade at high levels [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.46% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19%. LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons to 228,900 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons. Nickel ore prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel weekly inventories decreased significantly, and the cost support from nickel - iron prices has strengthened, but supply has also increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may remain relatively tight due to cobalt policies. The combination of macro factors and rising nickel - iron and MHP prices may slightly lift the bottom of nickel prices, but inventories remain a resistance to price increases [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 240 yuan/ton to 80,190 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 73,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 150 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased by 2,275 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,371 tons, and domestic + bonded area social inventories decreased by 0.3 million tons to 21.7 million tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged. The price of Shanxi low - grade bauxite and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventories remained unchanged, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained at 0.0 million tons, while the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.3 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME nickel inventories increased by 456 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 307 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 1,125 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums increased by 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 14.46 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the SMM spot price increased by 2,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 1,800 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of SHFE tin decreased by 909 tons [6]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. Social Inventory - Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper rough - smelting processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is facing a generally loose supply side and a lack of clear guidance on the demand side, so the market is oscillating repeatedly [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has short - term support, but the increasing supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will pressure the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [3]. - The traditional consumption peak season of asphalt brings stocking demand, but the high - level supply may limit the price increase space, and the short - term price will remain stable [3]. - The fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure, with terminal demand recovering slowly and oil prices under pressure in the long - term, so the prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The supply and demand of rubber are both increasing, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate mainly, with attention to the impact of typhoons on rubber production in Hainan [4][7]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, with attention to buying opportunities at low prices [7]. - The demand for polyolefins is improving marginally, with little change in supply, and the overall pattern will be weakly oscillating [7][9]. - The supply of PVC remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices declined slightly. Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from Kurdistan. China's crude oil imports in August 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but imports from Russia decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has short - term support, but future supply may pressure the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract declined. The traditional consumption peak season brings demand, but high supply may limit price increases [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main contracts of PTA, ethylene glycol, and PX declined. The supply of PX recovers, PTA's fourth - quarter maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber rose. The total inventory decreased last week. Typhoons may affect rubber production in Hainan, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][7]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic and overseas supply is in a short - term low, and the Xingxing device has resumed production. Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season, showing a weakly oscillating pattern [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the prices of PVC in different regions were reported. Domestic demand recovers slowly, exports are weakening, and the total inventory pressure is large, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 23, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait's current crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest in more than a decade [13]. - China's crude oil imports in August 2025 were 49.492 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month - on - month and 0.82% year - on - year. Russia was the largest source of imports, and Saudi Arabia was the second - largest [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][31][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the analyst for crude oil, etc. Du Bingqin, the rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experiences and achievements [75][76][77]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天探底回升，三大指数小幅上涨。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超 3100 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 股飘绿，今日成交 2.14 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.22%，深成指涨 0.67%，创 | | | | 业板指涨 0.55%。8 月经济数据发布，消费、投资等需求端指标环比均有小 | | | | 幅走低，体现经济筑底企稳仍在路上，本轮行情主要计价中长期政策预期， | | | | 当期基本面因素影响有限。长期来看，美联储 9 月大概率开启降息周期，市 | | | | 场预计年内降息 3 次，A 股的降息通道可能同时打开，利好权益资产的中长 | | | 股指 | 期股指。此前，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施 | 偏强 | | | 方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一 | | | | 次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升居民端收 | | | | 益水平影响较为直接。预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-23 一、指数走势 09 月 22 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.22%，收于 3828.58 点，成交额 9418.0 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.67%，收于 13157.97 点，成交额 11796.83 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.69%，成交额 4405.15 亿元，其中开盘价 7457.89，收盘价 7489.48，当日最高价 7489.48，最低价 7418.46； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.76%，成交额 4219.16 亿元，其中开盘价 7182.89，收盘价 7225.13，当日最高价 7225.86，最低价 7143.08； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.46%，成交额 5631.49 亿元，其中开盘价 4512.03，收盘价 4522.61，当日最高价 4523.87，最低价 4487.13； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.43%，成交额 1564.01 亿元，其中开盘价 2911.02，收盘价 2922.18，当日最高价 2929.52，最低价 2901.12。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The investment growth rate of the steel industry has declined across the board, leading to an increased expectation of policy easing. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the weakness on the demand side being more evident. It is expected that the short - term steel plate will fluctuate within a narrow range [4][166][167] - For iron ore, the molten iron output continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the demand situation of steel products [169] Summary by Directory Steel Products Price - This week, black - series commodities rose across the board, with coking coal and coke prices leading the increase. The increase of rebar prices was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. In the international market, hot - rolled coil prices in the US, EU, Japan, and India decreased slightly, while most other markets showed a stable - to - rising trend. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as various price spreads, changed to different extents [6][7] Supply - In August, the daily average output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In the current week, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products decreased. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased [42][50][66] Demand - In August, the investment growth rate in the real estate and infrastructure sectors continued to decline, while the growth rate of automobile sales increased, and the growth rate of excavator sales decreased. The national building materials trading volume, cement mill operating rate, and rebar apparent demand increased, while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased [81][88][92] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 137.51 million tons. The total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 184.82 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.74 million tons [124][129][142] Profit - This week, the on - screen profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed, the profits of long - process steelmaking increased, and the losses of short - process steel mills widened [149][151] Trading Data - This week, the positions and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, while the trading volume decreased slightly [152] Options - Data on rebar options, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes, are presented [156][160] Iron Ore Price - This week, the on - screen price of iron ore increased, and the closing price of the main contract i2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices at ports showed mixed trends, with the spread between high - and medium - grade ores widening and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowing [171][177][182] Supply - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 860,000 tons compared with the previous period [170] Demand - The molten iron output increased to 2.4102 million tons, and the pig iron output in August was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [170] Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons compared with the previous period. The steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons, and the consumption ratio of imported ore inventory was 31.2 [170] Profit - The profits of long - process rebar production increased, while the profits of short - process steel mills continued to decline [170]

Report Overview - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: September 19, 2025 - Report Type: Daily monitoring report on iron ore basis and spreads 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 759.0 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 800.0 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was 19.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of FMG mixed powder increased by 7 yuan to 88 yuan/ton, while the basis of five - mine standard powder decreased by 2 yuan to 44 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Basis Charts - Charts for different basis targets such as Brazilian powder ore, Australian medium - grade powder ore, Australian low - grade powder ore, and domestic ore were presented [7][8][9]. 3. Adjustment of Deliverable Brands and Rules - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) were added with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10]. - The brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [10]. - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators for substitutes was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators was introduced [10]. - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Five - mine Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were added, and their brand premiums are 0 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - For example, the spread between PB block and PB powder increased by 3 yuan to 134 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB powder and mixed powder decreased by 5 yuan to 37 yuan/ton [12]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts for different types of variety spreads such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder ore spreads, and others were provided [13][14][15][17][19]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. With the decline in rebar production, the inventory turned from rising to falling, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market's expectation of further policy easing weakened, affecting the rebar sentiment. It is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market also had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply increased, while the demand was affected by factors such as the change in the number of blast furnace overhauls and production resumptions. The inventory situation was mixed. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The supply was tight, and the downstream coking enterprises had different procurement attitudes. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank. The demand was supported by high hot - metal production, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures market showed an oscillatory trend. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was limited. The market sentiment was boosted by news, but the sustainability was not strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market also showed an oscillatory trend. The production was at a relatively high level, and the demand was not strong. The market sentiment was disturbed, and the fundamentals had limited driving force. It is expected to continue oscillating [3]. Group 3: Summary by Section Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (0.66%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The spot price dropped slightly, and the trading volume declined. The production, inventory, and apparent demand data had certain changes. The Fed's interest - rate cut affected the market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 800 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.56%), with a decrease in positions. The port spot prices of some varieties fell. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by blast furnace operations. The inventory situation was complex [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1203.5 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton (2.39%), with a decrease in positions. The supply was tight due to mine accidents, and the downstream procurement was different [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1709 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%), with a decrease in positions. The spot price in the port market rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, with an increase in positions. The market price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was limited. There were news about eliminating backward production capacity, and the steel - tender price was still under negotiation [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5756 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, with an increase in positions. The market price was basically stable. The production was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Information on the profit (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as卷螺差,螺矿比, etc.) of different commodities was presented, including the latest values and their changes [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the basis of the main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][19][20][23][24][25][26]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [28][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][42]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads between different commodities (such as主力合约卷螺差,主力合约螺矿比, etc.) [44][45][46][48]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) over different time periods [49][50][52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. After the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate, and central banks were cautious about further rate cuts. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2144 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons, and BC copper decreased by 2229 tons. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices may be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline could prompt downstream restocking [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2932 yuan/ton, a 0.54% decline. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20800 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking, adding to the peak - season expectations. With the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to be strong [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.71% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.63%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 18 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless - steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was tight. Due to previous supply disruptions in Indonesia and price increases in nickel - iron and MHP, nickel prices may face correction pressure, and overseas macro conditions need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors led to increased market volatility, and downstream demand was weak. Considering policy and demand, copper prices may remain strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were near the cost line, and aluminum ingot de - stocking supported the market. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: After a rapid price increase, nickel prices may correct, and attention should be paid to overseas macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 620 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory decreased by 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons. The active - contract import loss was 89.9 yuan/ton, a significant change from the previous day [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2675 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9843 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased by 110 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 30125 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 4421 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1541 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 18 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1381 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price decreased by 0.9%. LME inventory decreased by 150 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price decreased by 1.0%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 124 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and an intermediate gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience and has won multiple industry awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].