1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each product: - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Edible Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the November corn contract accelerated its decline, approaching the previous low. The price of corn in the northern ports decreased slightly, influenced by the decline in futures prices. The price of new-season corn in the Northeast varied, with the price in Liaoning decreasing, while the deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang continued to raise the purchase price of new - season corn, providing some support. In the North China region, corn prices fluctuated, with more enterprises experiencing price drops. Some new - season corn was sporadically listed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. Technically, the November contract faced resistance during the rebound and then fell again, pressured in the 2180 - 2200 area. In the short term, beware of a rebound after reaching the support level, and in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to bumper harvests and cost reduction [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from a two - week high, affected by seasonal harvest pressure and concerns about demand. The post - market crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63% and the harvest rate was 5%, both in line with market expectations. Strong crushing and export inspection data supported the market. Brazil started sowing soybeans for the 25/26 season, and drought in the western part might have disrupted the sowing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal declined, and the supply - demand report was bearish. The spot market was loose, and the market was mainly oscillating due to a lack of guiding themes. Short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Edible Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Canadian rapeseed prices fell due to weak exports and harvest pressure. US soybean oil prices declined following the fall of US soybeans and the expectation of increased supply. Domestically, edible oil futures prices oscillated. Although there is still an expectation of a bull market in the stock market, prices are volatile. The market sentiment for edible oils is relatively optimistic, but factors such as falling import costs and expected increased imports are bearish. Currently, the market is mainly oscillating. Strategies include trading volatility or selling put options [2]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, the main 2511 egg futures contract opened higher and closed higher, with a slight late - session correction. The daily increase was 3.39%, closing at 3143 yuan/500 kilograms. The spot price continued to rebound. Terminal demand improved, and the futures price was boosted by the spot price. Fundamentally, the number of brooding chicks supplemented from May to August continued to decline, corresponding to a decrease in the newly - opened production volume from September to December. If the culling intention of the breeding end remains stable or increases in the future, the egg - laying hen inventory will decrease, reducing the pressure on egg prices from the supply side. In the short term, the futures price is relatively strong due to spot price support, but the inference of a trend - like decline in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and moderately participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main 2511 live - hog futures contract opened lower and then oscillated upward, closing with a 0.15% increase at 13275 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the daily average price of live hogs in China was 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day. The average price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 13.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.18 yuan/kg. The demand side showed no obvious improvement, and the enthusiasm of breeders to sell increased, providing limited support for pig prices. Most pig prices across the country decreased slightly, and a few remained stable. In the short term, supply still exerts pressure on pig prices, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [3]. 3. Market Information - Malaysia's Sabah state government canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday due to floods in at least seven counties caused by continuous heavy rain [4]. - In August, India's palm oil imports were 990,528 tons (compared to 855,695 tons in July), soybean oil imports were 367,917 tons (compared to 492,336 tons in July), vegetable oil imports were 1,677,346 tons (compared to 1,579,041 tons in July), and sunflower oil imports were 257,080 tons (compared to 200,010 tons in July) [4]. - As of the week ending September 7, Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 529,500 tons, a 53.4% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of September 7, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 516,200 tons [4]. - As of the week ending September 12, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons month - on - month, 120,000 tons year - on - year, and 380,000 tons higher than the average of the past three years. Since May 23, the domestic soybean crushing volume has exceeded 2 million tons for 17 consecutive weeks. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will slightly increase this week, with the crushing volume around 2.4 million tons [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents various 1 - 5 contract spreads, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but does not provide detailed analysis of these spreads [6][7][8][12]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis for multiple contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, without in - depth analysis [14][15][16][18][19][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Range - bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, on September 15, the A - share market had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.09% and a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. In the long term, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the A - share rate - cut channel may open simultaneously, which is beneficial to the medium - and long - term stock indices. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase residents' income. The liquidity market is expected to continue but will show obvious structural characteristics, and sector rotation may accelerate [1] - For treasury bonds, on September 15, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. In the short term, with mixed fundamentals, there is no clear inflection point signal in the bond market, which is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, IH was at 2,937.8, up 0.42% from the previous day; IF was at 4,432.4, up 0.14%; IC was at 6,863.4, down 0.14%; IM was at 7,151.0, down 0.21% [3] - **Stock Indices**: On September 10, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,939.6, up 0.37%; the CSI 300 was at 4,445.4, up 0.21%; the CSI 500 was at 6,932.1, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 was at 7,230.2, up 0.06% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 10, TS was at 102.35, down 0.03%; TF was at 105.43, down 0.14%; T was at 107.49, down 0.26%; TL was at 114.76, down 0.83% [3] 3.2 Market News - In August, the month - on - month decline of PPI ended after 8 consecutive months, turning flat from a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The year - on - year decline was 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing since March [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [20][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to move up slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and improved domestic demand data [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakening and the high - sulfur fuel oil market having some support. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of crude oil on the cost side [3]. - Asphalt prices may rise further as the supply is expected to decline slightly in September and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices on the cost side [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PTA's fundamentals are expected to improve, and ethylene glycol's supply recovery needs to be followed up. Prices may follow the cost side [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to the results of China - US talks and the Fed meeting [6]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities at low prices [6]. - Polyolefin prices will fluctuate with raw materials as the demand is improving marginally and the supply remains stable [8]. - PVC prices are expected to fluctuate due to high supply, slow domestic demand recovery, and large inventory pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI October contract closed up $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel, a 0.97% increase; Brent November contract closed up $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.67% increase; SC2510 closed at 493.4 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan or 1.11%. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and domestic demand data has improved month - on - month. In August, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 18.26 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2601 rose 2.41% to 2,799 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2511 fell 2.65% to 3,375 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in Singapore has increased recently [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 fell 0.29% to 3,393 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,672 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; EG2601 closed at 4,288 yuan per ton, up 0.37%. PX supply has recovered, and the downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end. The fundamentals of polyester are expected to improve [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 rose 175 yuan to 15,995 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 155 yuan to 12,710 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level due to many domestic device overhauls and will gradually recover. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. The price is expected to enter a stage bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The demand is improving marginally with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply remains stable. The price will fluctuate with raw materials [8]. - **PVC**: The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but the demand recovery is slow. The export is affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The total inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with September 12 [9]. 3.3 Market News - In August, the production of industrial crude oil above designated size increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The US is ready to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][17][20] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][66][70] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the performance of major stock indices on September 15, including their intraday trends, the impact of sector movements on index changes, and the basis and cost data of stock index futures [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On September 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5 points with a decline of 0.26% and a trading volume of 986.172 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77 points with an increase of 0.63% and a trading volume of 1291.213 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7415.57 points with a decline of 0.1% and a trading volume of 475.105 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7137.36 points with a decline of 0.15% and a trading volume of 441.829 billion yuan [1]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2962.62 points with a decline of 0.2% and a trading volume of 145.698 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4533.06 points with an increase of 0.24% and a trading volume of 613.315 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Index Changes - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 7.31 points. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and automobiles had a significant positive impact, while national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 10.39 points. Media, automobile, and power equipment sectors pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index increased by 11.06 points. Power equipment, automobile, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors contributed positively, while non - bank finance, banking, and communication sectors had a negative impact [3]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 5.92 points. Electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and automobile sectors had a positive impact, while communication, non - bank finance, and banking sectors pulled the index down [3]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.46, IM01 of - 104.78, IM02 of - 257.48, and IM03 of - 465.25 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 20.83, IC01 of - 82.03, IC02 of - 189.44, and IC03 of - 349.6 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.11, IF01 of - 13.84, IF02 of - 36.38, and IF03 of - 61.42 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.54, IH01 of - 0.48, IH02 of 0.23, and IH03 of 2.65 [12]. Point Differences in Contract Roll - over and Annualized Costs of Stock Index Futures - The report provides data on the point differences in contract roll - over and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures at different time intervals, such as 15 - minute average values [20][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 2.31% to 72,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,150 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 338 tons to 38,963 tons [3]. - On September 12, Sigma Lithium denied any misconduct in its Grota do Cirilo lithium spodumene project in Brazil after being accused by the Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office MPF. On September 14, analysts led by Rebecca Wen raised their profit forecast for CATL by about 10% [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased 544 tons to 19,963 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased 22 tons to 16,491 tons, and the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 980 tons to 77,513 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons [3]. - Although the long - position logic is weakened under the expectation of project复产, currently, inventory destocking is accelerating. Before the actual project复产, with strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, downstream procurement demand will support prices. The actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs further attention [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,680 yuan/ton, up 1,520 yuan from September 12; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,075 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) remained at 70,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,150 yuan/ton [5]. - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also had certain increases [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9][10]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13][14][15][16]. 3.3 Spreads - Charts present the price difference trends of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][21][24]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025, including different types such as 523 (polycrystalline/power type) and 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) [25][26]. - Charts also display the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [28][29][30][32]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [34][35][36][37]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to September 2025 [39][40][41][42]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43][44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [2] - Soda Ash: Bullish [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1683 yuan/ton, up 0.96% day-on-day. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial areas still slightly down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Some maintenance enterprises resumed production, and urea supply increased slightly. Demand improved after prices fell to low levels, but the market remained in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and there were still many restrictions on the upside of futures prices. It is not recommended to chase the rise excessively [2]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1308 yuan/ton, up 1.71%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable, with individual areas slightly rising. The supply level was still volatile, and demand improved. The fundamentals improved slightly, but the overall driving force was still limited. The external macro - sentiment warmed up, which boosted the market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1207 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The spot market was weak. The daily melting volume of the glass industry remained stable. The demand follow - up was in a good state and may further increase. The futures price trend became stronger, and the phased upward trend was basically confirmed [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On September 15, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8613, a decrease of 234 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 49 [5]. - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.12 tons, an increase of 0.33 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.11 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from 85.24% in the same period last year [5]. - On September 15, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Henan 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1540 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6250, a decrease of 666 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3846. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1605, a decrease of 459 from the previous trading day [7]. - On September 15, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: North China light soda 1200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1300 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1250 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1130 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1250 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1350 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1400 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1300 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 980 yuan/ton, heavy soda 980 yuan/ton [7]. - On September 15, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.16%, down from 86.98% the previous working day [8]. - On September 15, the average price of the float glass market was 1160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton day - on - day. The daily output of the industry was 16.02 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads, and spot price trends of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][12][14][18][20]. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [22].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.01% to 66.82 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.4% to 13,885 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was about 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The market is focused on the macro - level with the Fed's September interest - rate meeting approaching and a nearly 100% probability of a 25 - BP rate cut. The USDA report made minor adjustments to US cotton data. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities in China, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest this year. The hand - picked cotton price remains relatively firm, and the opening price may be between 6.2 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The August social retail data showed a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. Overall, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has some support below but weak upward momentum, and is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) expects Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area to be 9.358284 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's forecast and 1.3% from last year, and the sugarcane output to be 695.491113 million tons, up 0.1% from last month's forecast but down 1.6% from last year. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and only the Guangdong Jinling processing sugar factory raised its price by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market was suppressed by the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the peak of spot market stocking has passed, and sales are now stable. The sugar - cane crushing in Inner Mongolia is delayed due to weather. The futures market rebounded slightly following the raw sugar, but caution is needed regarding the upside due to the supply from multiple sugar sources. Attention should be paid to the August import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 35 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1364 yuan, down 24 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the national average was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 386 yuan, down 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,899, down 118 from the previous trading day, with 2 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 15, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,167 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,217 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,282 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,300 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 15, the yarn comprehensive load was 50, up 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.4, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5, up 0.5; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.3 [4]. - On September 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 11,325, down 274 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18]. 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Urea: The domestic urea fundamentals face multiple factors such as rising supply, continuous realization of export demand, transfer of enterprise inventory to the middle - downstream and ports, and insufficient domestic demand support. After the Indian tender results are announced, the short - term market positive factors are exhausted, and the 01 contract will still run weakly. In the medium - term, there will be a game stage among various factors. In the long - term, the pressure of new production capacity in the industry is still high [4]. - Soda Ash: Recently, the changes in indicators such as supply, demand, and inventory of soda ash are relatively limited, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient. Subsequently, the warming of macro - sentiment and anti - involution themes will continue to boost market sentiment. The futures price shows obvious characteristics of a phased bottom, but currently does not have the momentum for a trend - based upward movement. It is recommended to continue to adopt a wide - range shock thinking [5]. - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been significantly reversed, and the industry has different expectations for the future. The glass factory has a certain price - holding mentality, and the short - term glass futures price has obvious characteristics of a phased bottom, but currently there is insufficient new driving force in the market. If external factors such as macro - warming and anti - involution are combined with the realization of peak - season demand, the glass futures price may be significantly boosted [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - Futures Prices: As of September 12, the weekly change of the urea main contract was - 3.2%, the soda ash main contract was + 0.16%, and the glass main contract was + 1.2% [13]. - Related Futures Varieties: This week, the trends of related varieties were differentiated, with urea being the weakest and glass being the strongest [15]. - Coal Prices: The prices of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500), Shaanxi Yulin bituminous coal fines (Q5500), Yangquan anthracite washed small lumps, and Yangquan anthracite washed medium lumps showed little change from September 5 - 11 [19]. - LNG Prices: The LNG prices of some domestic regions such as Inner Mongolia Huineng and Inner Mongolia Xingsheng showed certain fluctuations from September 5 - 11 [23]. - Two - Alkali Raw Material Salt: This week, the raw salt price remained basically stable [24]. - Ammonia Prices: The price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 1.39% week - on - week from September 4 - 11 [27]. 2. Urea: Market Positive Factors Exhausted, Short - Term Weak Operation of the Futures Market - Spot Prices: This week, the urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 40 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week [30]. - Production: This week, the urea production level increased slightly, with the industry's operating rate rising by 1.23 percentage points to 79.34%. The operating rates of small and large - granular urea increased by 1.01 and 2.13 percentage points respectively [34][40]. - Output: This week, the daily urea output fluctuated around 180,000 tons, and the weekly output increased by 1.58% week - on - week [43][45]. - Inventory: This week, the urea enterprise inventory increased by 3.44% to 1.1327 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% to 549,400 tons [46]. - Downstream Demand: This week, the operating rate of melamine decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 55.38%, the operating rate of adhesives decreased by 2.27 percentage points to 48.75%, and the price of vehicle - use urea decreased significantly [58][62][65]. - International Market: The Indian tender results were announced, and the procurement quantity did not exceed expectations. The subsequent supply quantity from China needs to be monitored [71]. - Related Products: This week, the prices of some phosphate fertilizer products declined, and the potash fertilizer price remained stable [73]. 3. Soda Ash: Limited Changes in Supply and Demand, Focus on the Impact of External Factors - Spot Prices: This week, most of the soda ash spot quotations were stable, and individual regions still showed a downward trend. The mainstream average prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions changed slightly week - on - week [82][85]. - Production: This week, the soda ash production level increased slightly, with the industry's operating rate rising by 1.07 percentage points to 87.29%. The weekly output increased by 1.25% to 761,100 tons [91][97]. - Inventory: This week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.7975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. The enterprise inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, but the decrease was very limited [102][110]. - Import and Export: In July, China's soda ash export volume was 161,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66% [111]. - Cost and Profit: This week, the cost center of soda ash continued to decline slightly [114]. 4. Glass: Cautious Industry Mentality, Focus on the Quality of Future Demand - Futures Prices: This week, the glass futures price showed a weak shock trend, and the closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.2% [6]. - Spot Prices: This week, the glass spot price rebounded locally, and the average price of the domestic float glass market on Friday was 1,164 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - Supply: This week, one production line of the glass industry produced finished products, and the supply level increased slightly. The daily melting volume in production as of Friday was 160,200 tons per day, an increase of 600 tons per day from last week [6]. - Inventory: This week, the glass enterprise inventory was 61.583 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33%. The inventory fluctuation range was limited, and the de - stocking trend was not obvious [6]. - Demand: Currently, the glass demand has not shown the characteristics of the peak season, but the purchasing sentiment of the middle - downstream was acceptable this week, and the glass factory orders increased slightly. However, the demand is still differentiated between regions, and the terminal demand has not been substantially improved [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.25% to 71,000 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 72,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped 600 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 250 yuan/ton to 74,450 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased slightly. The weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 300 tons to 12,709 tons, from lepidolite by 130 tons to 2,730 tons, from salt lakes by 62 tons to 2,655 tons, and from recycling by 52 tons to 1,869 tons. The expected output of lithium carbonate in September will increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons. On the demand side, the expected output of ternary materials in September will decrease by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while the expected output of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 6% to 335,250 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory depletion accelerated, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons [3]. - The news that Ningde's Jianxiawo project may resume production was released again. Under the resumption expectation, the long - position logic was weakened. Before the actual resumption of the project, in the context of strong demand, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. The actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs to be continuously monitored [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 71,000 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,020 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan [5]. - Lithium ores: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,845 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonates and hydroxides: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 79,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 69,410 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 9 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 1,600 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 8,388 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 79,200 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 78,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 73,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 92,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The prices of most ternary materials remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 32,075 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 29,290 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The prices of lithium manganate and cobaltate remained unchanged [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries from 4.34 yuan/piece to 4.40 yuan/piece [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][20][21][22]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts illustrate the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [23][24][26][27][28][29][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from January to September 2025 [36][37][38][39]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a junior gold investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].