工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 15 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8350 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.15%，持仓 增仓 11817 手至 20.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 500 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58030 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.61%，持仓 增仓 16408 手至 14.3 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 5730 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长， 减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易 所针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场 关于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩 和仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注 册基础上 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3074 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 14 元/吨，涨幅为 0.46%，持仓增加 2.06 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.12 万吨。 | | | | 据国家统计局数据，1-11 月固定资产投资增速同比下降 2.6%，其中基础设施投资同比下降 1.1%，制造业 | | | | 投资增长 1.9%，房地产开发投资下降 15.9%。1-11 月，中国粗钢产量 89167 万吨，同比下降 4.0%；生铁 | | | | 产量 77405 万吨，同比下降 2.3%；钢材产量 133277 万吨，同比增长 4.0%。总体看 11 投资数据继续走弱， | | | | 粗钢及生铁产量处于低位，钢材市场处于供需双弱局面。预计短期 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 753.0 | 760.5 | -7.5 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 22.5 | -1.0 | | I09 | 731.5 | 738.0 | -6.5 | I09-I01 | -45.5 | -44.5 | -1.0 | | I01 | 777.0 | 782.5 | -5.5 | I01-I05 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.16%，报收 63.93 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 1.08%，报收 14000 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 50374 手至 34.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14690 元/吨，较前一日上涨 60 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，市场在 | | | | 等待美国经济数据发布。在此期间，有关哈塞特将当选美联储新一任主席的预期有 | | | | 所降温，美元指数宽幅震荡，持续关注。美棉出口方面，数据更新恢复至 11 月中 | | | | 旬，数据表现相对较好，对美棉价格有一定支撑。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价重 | | | | 心上移，突破 14000 整数关口。市场上有关于新年度棉花种植面积调控的消息传 | | | | 出，等待官方报告。我们认为近期棉花多空因素交织，支撑在于情绪、政策、有韧 | | | | 性的需求、偏高的出疆运费等；压力在于 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素期货价格窄幅震荡，01合约收盘价1629元/吨，跌幅0.06%。05合约收 | 区间 震荡 | | | 盘价1681元/吨，跌幅0.59%。现货市场周末以来窄幅走弱，主流地区市场价格下 | | | | 调10~20元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格昨日分别为1700元/吨、1670元/吨， | | | | 日环比分别下跌10元/吨、20元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续下降，昨日 | | | | 行业日产量19.46万吨，日环比降0.13万吨，后续气头企业负荷继续下降给供应带 | | | | 来支撑，但也仍需关注前期检修企业复产影响。需求方面，近几日市场成交氛围有 | | | | 所减弱，区 间分化也较为明显。昨日主流地区产销率低的在5%～10%，高在80 | | | | %～90% 至100%以上。短期尿素市场驱动不足，产业情绪趋于谨慎。预计期货 | | | | 市场价格维持区间震荡趋势，关注主力移仓换月情况、尿素日产 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米主力 2603 合约领跌，近远月合约跟跌。当日，玉米 1 月合约减仓约 5 万手，主力 2603 合约增仓下行，3、5 月合约受制于周度均线压制，期价呈现调 | | | | 整表现。现货市场中，农户惜售延续，期价调整烘干塔出粮意愿增加。周末东北 | | | | 玉米价格有再次拉升迹象，深加工到货量减少企业收购价格有所提升，基层售粮 | | | 玉米 | 积极性略有所减弱。周末销区市场玉米价格无较大变化。目前终端需求疲软，饲 | 震荡下行 | | | 料销售情况一般，下游企业多按需采购 。港口贸易商报价偏弱，市场购销活跃 | | | | 度一般，成交可小幅议价。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压 | | | | 力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。周初，玉米呈现技术调整要求，预计远期价格 | | | | 延续调整表现。 周一，CBOT 大豆触及七周低点，农产品市场普遍遭遇抛售。市场在持续担忧美 | | | | 国出口步伐和巴西丰产预期的情况下继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，市场全天震荡调整，深成指、创业板指均跌超 1%。个股跌多涨少，今 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 日成交 1.79 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.55%，深成指跌 1.1%，创业板指跌 1.77%。 | | | | 近期政策的密集出台可能在短期内提振股指流动性、推升指数波动率。以 AI | | | | 为首的新质生产力仍是股指上涨的核心驱动，目前市场存在观望情绪。一方 | | | | 面，尽管相关科技题材业绩确定性较强，但产业链盈利模式尚未形成闭环， | | | | 叠加目前偏高的估值，资本市场态度谨慎；另一方面，以消费和周期题材为 | | | | 首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存在一些补涨的逻辑， | | | | 但短期很难进入基本面牛市。这种分歧可能会随着 2026 年美联储降息路径 | | | | 的确定而逐步减小，目前市场风险偏好仍较低，指数震荡为主。 | | | 国债 | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0. ...

Group 1: Index Movements - On December 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.55% to close at 3867.92 points, with a trading volume of 764.605 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.1% to close at 13112.09 points, with a trading volume of 1008.835 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.84%, with a trading volume of 372.659 billion yuan, opening at 7324.48, closing at 7309.08, reaching a high of 7375.61 and a low of 7305.83 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 0.78%, with a trading volume of 301.024 billion yuan, opening at 7121.38, closing at 7113.96, reaching a high of 7177.15 and a low of 7110.68 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 0.25%, with a trading volume of 111.134 billion yuan, opening at 2979.76, closing at 2987.07, reaching a high of 3015.39 and a low of 2978.13 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 61.86 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Communication, and Electronics significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 55.83 points from the previous close, with National Defense & Military Industry pulling the index up, while Electric Equipment, Machinery, and Electronics dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased 7.57 points from the previous close, with Non - Banking Finance, Food & Beverage, and Basic Chemicals pulling the index up, while Machinery, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics dragging it down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 8.87, IM01 of - 85.92, IM02 of - 246.25, and IM03 of - 490.68 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 2.63, IC01 of - 57.67, IC02 of - 174.09, and IC03 of - 377.5 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.33, IF01 of - 22.13, IF02 of - 48.54, and IF03 of - 92.24 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 2.95, IH01 of - 9.76, IH02 of - 10.95, and IH03 of - 26.66 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For the IF contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, and IF00 - 03 were - 15.1878, - 37.2969, and - 81.8414 respectively [24]. - For the IH contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, and IH00 - 03 were - 5.45767, - 9.03133, and - 23.7498 respectively [25]. - For the IM contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, and IM00 - 03 were - 75.8461, - 236.345, and - 480.077 respectively [27]. - For the IC contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, and IC00 - 03 were - 55.5207, - 175.242, and - 383.666 respectively [28].

2026 年度农产品策略报告 光期研究 2026 年农产品策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | | 2026 年度农产品策略报告 油脂油料：区间震荡思路 政策决定重心 研究员：侯雪玲 年报摘要： 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年国内豆粕期现震荡运行，现货波动区间大于期货。油脂价格高位 回落，棕榈油是行情领头羊，豆棕价差扩大修复。 2026 年市场分析逻辑 1、受到复杂的国际贸易环境以及大国贸易冲突增加，油料的定价逻辑转 变为政策、地缘第一位，成本第二位，供需退后至第三位。 2、主流机构均预计 2025/26 年全球油料供需接近平衡，库存矛盾不突出。 但是因供需重要因素均待确定，所以有阶段性行情机会。如拉尼娜天气 对南美大豆的不利影响，美国、巴西生柴政策落地和中国养殖存栏去化 速度等。 3、油脂市场上，在年度供需矛盾不突出、生柴政策不明朗的情况下，油 脂价格预计区间波动，三个油脂各有逻辑。后市区间打破因素或有两点： 一是美国、印尼以及加拿大生物柴油政策落地，二是天气。 风险提示 1、宏观经济不及预期 请务必阅读正文 ...