1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 5.9% to 70,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 700 yuan/ton to 71,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 65,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 12,276 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short - term fundamentals lies in the concern about supply disruptions. Currently, there is still no clear announcement, and affected by the overall market, the market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the future market can be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 70,460 yuan/ton, down 1,240 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 US dollars/ton, down 28 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 71,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 65,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 70,570 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 60,320 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained at 8.28 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 53,250 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7,730 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,208.89 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [5]. - Precursors and cathode materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials changed slightly. For example, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 40 yuan/ton to 75,795 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 220,450 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary battery cells increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.384 yuan/Wh, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate battery cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh to 0.323 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][31]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to July 2025 [34][36]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]. 3.3 Research Team and Contact Information - The non - ferrous research team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, each with their own educational backgrounds, research directions, and professional qualifications [42][43]. - The company's address is in Shanghai, with a phone number, fax number, customer service hotline, and postal code provided [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a weak performance on Tuesday, with the September contract's funds shifting to the January contract. The favorable weather during the growing season influenced market sentiment, and the spot market in the Northeast region had limited trading activity. The downstream feed enterprises mainly used their previous inventory and waited for the new grain to enter the market. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous trading range of 2320 - 2330, facing technical resistance. If the support at 2300 is ineffective, the price will continue to decline. The view is that the price will be weakly volatile [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the US, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazilian grain exporters expected lower soybean and soybean meal exports in July. In the domestic market, soybean meal followed the external market and declined. The reduction of Argentine tariffs and overseas purchases by domestic feed enterprises dragged down the forward price of soybean meal. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will rise [1]. Edible Oils - BMD palm oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. Rapeseed in Canada also rose following the increase in US soybean oil. The market continued to focus on Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies. In the domestic market, soybean oil rose, rapeseed oil followed, and palm oil was relatively weak. The low price and high cost - effectiveness of soybean oil provided support. With the slight increase in the inventory of three major vegetable oils last week and the unclear international policies, the market will be volatile. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will be volatile [1]. Eggs - The main egg contract 2509 oscillated and closed flat on Tuesday. The spot price was stable. After the previous price adjustment, the short - term supply and demand became stable. Due to the hot weather, traders' willingness to stock up was low, and most of the egg prices in the sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamental situation was bearish, and the price will be volatile. Although the demand will increase in the peak season, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the price peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Pigs - The main pig contract 2509 rose 0.18% on Tuesday. The spot price of pigs declined in most regions. Some breeding enterprises increased their sales volume by reducing prices to meet their monthly sales plans. In the short term, the supply side will put pressure on the price, while policies will provide support. The view is that the price will be volatile [2]. Market Information - Last week, the production of rapeseed oil increased with the increase in rapeseed crushing volume, and the inventory continued to decline. As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported rapeseed oil was 78.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, a 3.21% decline. The contract volume was 11.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, a 9.24% decline [3]. - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with the EU agreeing to a zero - tariff policy for a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil imports, and a 3% tariff for imports exceeding the quota [3]. - The Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission (IPOC) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 500 million tons, higher than 480 million tons in 2024. Indonesia also plans to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India to support its plan to expand the oil palm planting area [4]. - The e - trading center of Sinograin will organize a two - way bidding trading of domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 40,302 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [1][6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and won awards [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated strongly, rising 0.41% to $9,803/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.14% to 79,090 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still in a loss state. The labor market shows resilience, and there are certain progresses in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, with the upcoming Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the impending US tariff on copper on August 1st, the market short - term volatility will increase, and the weekly market should be viewed with caution [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The spot price of aluminum ingots remained flat. Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite starts to decline. There is a cost support, and there is a certain risk of short squeeze under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has changed marginally, leading to smooth inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy currently lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.62% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.39% to 122,380 yuan/ton. The short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment and show a weak trend. Fundamentally, there is little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The labor market data shows little change, indicating resilience. Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories have different changes. The off - season affects consumption, but some enterprises replenish stocks in advance. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting and the upcoming US tariff on copper on August 1st will increase market volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures and spot prices show different trends. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite exports. There is cost support, and there is a short - squeeze risk under low warehouse receipts. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum changes, leading to inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy lacks an independent driver [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rise. The inventory changes, and the prices of nickel - related products show different trends. The short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and the fundamentals show little change, presenting a volatile operation [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the scrap - refined price difference decreased. LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories changed, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The LME0 - 3 premium and CIF bill of lading price decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead and the price of recycled lead remained stable, while the price of reduced lead decreased. The LME lead inventory increased, and the SHFE lead inventory increased slightly [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased. The LME aluminum inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum inventory decreased. The social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and some new - energy nickel products decreased. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased, and the spot price decreased. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased. The social inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price and LME price decreased. The spot price and tin - concentrate price decreased. The LME and SHFE tin inventories increased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metal research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research, a senior researcher of precious metals, etc.; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [47][48].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 30 日） | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 9-1 | -100 | -110 | 1655 | 121 | 新疆 | 15431 | -42 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 15580 | -29 | | 白糖 | 9-1 | 140 | -24 | 208 | -22 | 南宁 | 6050 | 0 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 6075 | 0 | 三、市场信息 1、7 月 29 日棉花期货仓单数量 9156 张，较上一交易日下降 70 张，有效预报 348 张。 2、7 月 29 日国内各地区棉花到厂价：新疆 15431 元/吨，河南 15634 元/吨，山东 15562 元/吨， 浙江 15790 元/吨。 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下降 1%， ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面大幅增仓上行，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3347 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 震荡偏强 | | | 价格上涨 99 元/吨，涨幅 3.05%，持仓增加 23.9 万手。现货价格大幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格上涨 60 元/吨至 3150 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3400 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 12.21 万吨。据相关统计，沙钢公布 2025 年 8 月份建材销售计划折扣情况：螺纹 1.5 折(上月 2.5 折)，盘螺 | | | | 0 折（上月 0 折）。中天钢铁 8-1 期华东地区建材计划量折扣为：螺纹 5 折(上期江苏和上海 4 折，浙江 5 | | | | 折)，线材 6.5 折（上期 6.5 折），盘螺江苏和上海 6.5 折，浙江 6 折（上期 6.5 折）。主流钢厂资源投放处 | | | | 于低位，加之部分期现正套商补充现货库存 ...

1. Index Trends - On July 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to close at 3609.71 points with a trading volume of 793.606 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to close at 11289.41 points with a trading volume of 1009.564 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.65% with a trading volume of 383.704 billion yuan, opening at 6724.32, closing at 6773.88, having a high of 6773.88 and a low of 6684.16 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.52% with a trading volume of 292.527 billion yuan, opening at 6308.12, closing at 6356.13, having a high of 6356.15 and a low of 6272.31 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.21% with a trading volume of 111.954 billion yuan, opening at 2802.78, closing at 2808.59, having a high of 2813.74 and a low of 2795.6 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 428.764 billion yuan, opening at 4132.68, closing at 4152.02, having a high of 4153.33 and a low of 4117.58 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 43.9 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Electronics, and Computer significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 32.71 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and National Defense & Military Industry significantly pulling the index up [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 16.2 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Communication, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics significantly pulling the index up, while the Banking sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 5.82 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Electronics, and National Defense & Military Industry significantly pulling the index up, while sectors like Non - Banking Finance, Banking, and Non - Ferrous Metals pulled it down [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.39, IM01 of - 128.53, IM02 of - 316.31, and IM03 of - 482.97 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 47.12, IC01 of - 103.2, IC02 of - 239.59, and IC03 of - 362.3 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.59, IF01 of - 18.46, IF02 of - 50.91, and IF03 of - 85.84 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.08, IH01 of - 0.44, IH02 of 0.89, and IH03 of 1.65 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are provided at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [24][25][26][27].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡上涨，Wind 全 A 上涨 0.45%，成交额 1.83 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 0.65%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.52%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.39%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.21%。中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴 | | | | 制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近 | | | | 年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升 | | | | 居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集 | | | | 资金，推出更多普惠型财政支持方案将成为拉动我国通胀环境企稳回升的一 | | | | 条重要路径。股市近期上涨主要来自三个逻辑：（1）长期：市场压住财政政 | | | 股指 | 策更多转向促销费领域，以及中美关系缓和后国内通胀水平回升，在此背景 | 震荡 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends and market conditions of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, inventory data, and supply - demand fundamentals to provide investment suggestions for each product [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rose. WTI 9 - month contract closed up 2.50 dollars to 69.21 dollars/barrel, Brent 9 - month contract up 2.47 dollars to 72.51 dollars/barrel, and SC2509 up 12.8 yuan/barrel to 527.5 yuan/barrel. Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase supply concerns. API data shows an increase in US crude and distillate inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories. If secondary sanctions occur, it will impact the Asian market and raise energy prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. The market structure slightly recovered. Traders expect an increase in arrivals from Europe in July. High - sulfur fuel oil in Asia faces supply pressure from Middle - East cargoes. It's advisable to stop losses on previous spread shorts and wait for new opportunities [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. Entering August, northern demand will increase, and some refineries plan to resume production or increase output. However, some refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some have maintenance plans. Rainy weather affects demand, but there is potential for improvement after the rainy season. Short - term prices are supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [2] - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures rose on Tuesday. Polyester device operations are adjusted, with some starting up and some shutting down for maintenance. The "anti - involution" market fades, but cost - side oil price support and downstream demand resilience, along with low visible inventories in TA and EG, are expected to drive polyester prices to oscillate strongly [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber futures prices fell. The European replacement tire market in Q2 2025 declined year - on - year. The "anti - involution" market fades, and macro events cause short - term wide - range oscillations in rubber prices [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device loads have recovered, arrival volumes have increased, downstream profits and operations are stable, and inventories are rising. It is expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Polyolefins are gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. If the cost side does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventories are slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis details of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc., such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8] Market News - Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase market concerns about supply shortages. API data shows that US crude inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 25, while gasoline inventories decreased and distillate inventories increased [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [42][44][48] - **Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][65] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][73] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and many honors. She has served many listed companies and designed risk - management and investment strategies [75] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and many industry honors [76] - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with achievements in the industry and strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities [77] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in both financial theory and industrial operations [78]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.34%至 9762.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜上涨 0.04%至 79010 | 元 | | | | /吨；国内现货进口仍处于亏损状态。宏观方面，美国商务部表示 8 月 1 日关税不再延 | | | | | 期，但并没有增加市场担忧情绪，因特朗普宣布欧美达成贸易协议，被市场视为利多美 | | | | | 元，美元指数大幅反弹，压制住金价走势。关注即将进行的中美贸易谈判。库存方面来 看，LME 库存下降 1075 吨至 127400 吨；Comex 库存增加 1981 吨至 227541 吨；SMM | | | | 铜 | 周一统计全国主流地区铜库存较上周四上升 0.61 万吨至 12.03 万吨。需求方面，淡季 | | | | | 影响延续消费疲软，但担忧铜价上涨推动部分企业提前补库。美联储即将举行 7 月议 | | | | | 息会议，不降息在预期之内，市场关注点在于能否开启降息预期。另外，国内反内卷政 ...