1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 23rd, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The position decreased by 20,359 lots to 76,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 145 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.05%. The position decreased by 3,609 lots to 45,407 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,740 yuan/ton. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, while the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The maintenance of the organic silicon industry and the limited supply of aluminum alloys have comprehensively suppressed the market. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary volume scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations should be carried out at high levels for the far-month contracts. The state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, and the news of the storage platform has boosted market sentiment. The policy expectation for the far-month contracts still provides support. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November means that there is still room for the near-month contracts to trade at a discount. Continuous attention should be paid to the latest developments and the inventory-consumption trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,485 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 8,705 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 220 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 235 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 367 to 48,371, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,715 to 241,855 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 445,500 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,310 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 50,760 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,740 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 80 to 9,220, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 276,600 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 264,000 tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market decreased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][34] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [36][37]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约涨 4.17%至 79940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 450 元/吨至 74800 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 450 元/吨至 72550 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 150 元/吨至 73380 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 260 吨至 28759 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 242 吨至 21308 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 10 吨至 13174 吨，锂云母 提锂环比增加 100 吨至 2891 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 113 吨至 3227 吨，回收提锂环比增加 19 吨至 2016 吨；进口方面，9 月中国锂辉石进口量 71 万实物吨，环比增长 14.8%，折合约 6.7 万吨 LCE； 9 月中国碳酸锂进口数量为 1.96 万吨，环比减少-10.3%，其中从智利进口 1.08 万吨，环比减少 30.8%、 自阿根廷进口 6948 吨，环比增加 63. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the supply - demand data has improved with a slight increase in production, a decline in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand, the market has a generally pessimistic outlook on future demand, and there is still significant pressure on the supply - demand side. However, the current price valuation is not high, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke prices strengthens the cost support for steel [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. With a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil and other countries on the supply side, and a decrease in molten iron production on the demand side, along with a continuous decline in steel mill profitability and pressure on steel inventories, the steel demand remains weak, and the coking coal and coke prices are strong [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Due to stricter safety inspections at coal mines, limited production release, and smooth shipments, the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although coking enterprises have limited production, they still have a strong rigid demand for high - quality coking coal [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The sharp rise in coking coal prices has increased the production cost of coke and deteriorated the profit margin of coking enterprises, leading to an expected increase in production restrictions. Meanwhile, steel mills' demand for coke has increased due to high - level blast furnace operation and a decline in inventory [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon price is expected to be firm and oscillate slightly stronger. After the end of an important meeting, market sentiment has been boosted, and the price center of manganese silicon has moved up slightly. Although the fundamentals have limited driving forces, with an increase in production and a decline in demand and an increase in inventory, the market sentiment has a positive impact [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Market sentiment has been boosted, and although the production has slightly decreased and the demand is still to be stimulated, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years, the fundamentals provide some support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Price Change Rate | Position Change | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel (Rebar) | 3071 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.1% | - 0.82 million hands | Production increased by 5.91 million tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 18.93 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons | Narrow - range consolidation [1] | | Iron Ore | 777 yuan/ton | +3 yuan/ton | +0.4% | +0.3 million hands | Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, molten iron production decreased by 1.05 million tons, and port inventory increased by 147.62 million tons | Range - bound oscillation [1] | | Coking Coal | 1258.5 yuan/ton | +49 yuan/ton | +4.05% | +86290 hands | Stricter safety inspections, limited production release, and a significant decrease in coal mine inventory | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Coke | 1768 yuan/ton | +58.5 yuan/ton | +3.42% | +1289 hands | Rising coking coal prices, increased production cost, and expected increase in production restrictions for coking enterprises; increased demand from steel mills | Wide - range oscillation [1] | | Manganese Silicon | 5818 yuan/ton | +0.41% | - | - 4420 hands | Production stopped falling and rebounded, demand decreased, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [1][3] | | Silicon Iron | 5574 yuan/ton | +0.94% | - | - 5440 hands | Production decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, demand was limited, and inventory increased | Oscillate slightly stronger [3] | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread and Basis**: The data shows the latest values and week - on - week changes of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The data presents the latest values and week - on - week changes of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) for various varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][19][21][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the contract spreads of different periods (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][38][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black Research at Everbright Futures. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors. His futures trading qualification numbers are F3046854 and Z0016941 [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures. She has rich experience in the field of black commodities and has won many industry awards. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0306200 and Z0000082 [52]. - Liu Xi: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F03087689 and Z0019538 [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black Researcher at Everbright Futures. He has experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at investment trading strategies and spot - futures analysis. His futures trading qualification number is F03132960 [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index market showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding throughout the day, with all three major indices rising. The outlook for relevant themes remains optimistic in the long - term, but there are uncertainties from the US's debt pressure and trade policies. Short - term liquidity may be affected, and it is expected that volatility will increase this week, suggesting attention to option double - buying or ratio spread strategies [1]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate. Although recent factors have led to a short - term strengthening of bonds, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: The market recovered after hitting bottom, with about 3000 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume on this day was 1.66 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee has attracted high market attention. The strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and technology remains unchanged, but there are uncertainties from the US and potential impacts on short - term liquidity. The futures market has a large discount, and option implied volatility is low. Volatility is expected to increase this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed with declines in various contracts. The central bank conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery trend. Although there was a short - term strengthening due to factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US tariff war, there is a lack of strong impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH rose 18.2 points (0.61%), IF rose 17.4 points (0.38%), IC rose 28.4 points (0.41%), and IM rose 15.8 points (0.22%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 16.8 points (0.56%), the CSI 300 rose 13.8 points (0.30%), the CSI 500 rose 14.5 points (0.20%), and the CSI 1000 fell 4.1 points (- 0.06%) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 23, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS fell 0.022 points (- 0.02%), TF fell 0.09 points (- 0.09%), T fell 0.11 points (- 0.10%), and TL fell 0.40 points (- 0.35%) [3]. Market News - As of October 22, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for the national automobile trade - in program exceeded 10 million, including over 3.4 million for vehicle scrapping and replacement and over 6.6 million for replacement [4]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing scientific planning, focusing on enhancing core functions and competitiveness, and promoting layout optimization and structural adjustment [4]. - From October 24 to 27, 2025, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The document provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing the price trends and basis changes of these contracts from January 2024 to July 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: The document presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies, with data spanning from January 2023 to July 2025 [24][25][26][28][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily comments and views on various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride. Most products are expected to be in a volatile state [1][3][5]. - For crude oil, due to sanctions on Russia and potential supply disruptions, the price is expected to be strong, but macro - variables bring uncertainty [1]. - For fuel oil, the market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure [3]. - For asphalt, terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices, but it may fluctuate with crude oil [3]. - For polyester, it follows the cost - side fluctuation with sufficient supply and some support from downstream demand [5]. - For rubber, it has a short - term rebound adjustment with some tightness in the liquidity of some rubber types [5]. - For methanol, supply is at a high level, and it is recommended to pay attention to certain trading strategies [7]. - For polyolefins, short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening [7]. - For polyvinyl chloride, it has a demand for price repair, but the rebound height is limited due to high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose $3.29 to $61.79/barrel (5.62% increase), Brent 12 - month contract rose $3.40 to $65.99/barrel (5.43% increase), and SC2511 rose 10.6 yuan/barrel to 463.8 yuan/barrel (2.34% increase). Sanctions on Russia increase the risk of supply disruptions, and the EU's new sanctions also affect the market. However, macro - variables bring uncertainty to the price increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 3.42% to 2752 yuan/ton, and LU2512 rose 2.9% to 3190 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's increased. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 rose 2.31% to 3277 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is weak, especially in the north due to weather, and high supply may suppress prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.58% to 4508 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 1.09% to 4095 yuan/ton. Some devices have changes, and the polyester chain follows the cost - side fluctuation with support from downstream demand [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 95 yuan/ton to 15245 yuan/ton, NR rose 80 yuan/ton to 12430 yuan/ton, and BR rose 70 yuan/ton to 11120 yuan/ton. Myanmar plans to increase rubber production, and the rubber market has a short - term rebound adjustment [5]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a high level both domestically and overseas. It is recommended to pay attention to strategies such as going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and monthly positive spreads [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Short - term crude oil rebound supports the price, but the fundamental driving force is weakening as demand growth slows down [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price has a demand for repair, but the high inventory limits the rebound height due to large supply - demand pressure and weak export prospects [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 24, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - Trump imposed further sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the US Treasury Secretary announced the specific targets. These sanctions increase the risk of supply disruptions in Russia [15]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production if necessary, but Putin believes that the global market needs time to replace Russian oil [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [17][20][23]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, over different time periods [36][40][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., over different time periods [50][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, and spreads between other products like fuel oil and asphalt [66][72][73]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profits of PP and LLDPE [76]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of members with different specializations, including a director, analysts for different product categories. Each member has rich experience and achievements in the energy and chemical research field [83][84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.63% to 77,120 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton to 74,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton to 72,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,230 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 873 tons to 29,019 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase month - on - month overall. The weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, and the lithium carbonate production in October increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. On the demand side, in the week, the production of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the inventory increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the inventory increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons; the weekly cell production increased by 1.2% to 28.27GWh, among which lithium iron increased by 1.4% to 21.12GWh, and ternary increased by 0.8% to 7.4GWh. In October, the peak season continued, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 133,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly [3]. - Recently, due to the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, there is still support below the short - term price. Yesterday, there was news disturbance on the supply side, and the price strengthened again in the afternoon. However, according to publicly available market information, there is still an expectation of project resumption for lithium ore projects in Jiangxi in November. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 77,120 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 76,180 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 1,115 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,845 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,475 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,650 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 72,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,230 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 67,930 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price was 87,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,178.47 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, such as the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 102,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 142,925 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of various cells and batteries also showed an upward trend, such as the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.493 yuan/Wh, up 0.097 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.51 yuan/Wh, up 0.1 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14] - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][25] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30] - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February to October 2025 [33][35] - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The report mainly presents data on index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and data related to stock index futures basis and roll - over point differentials. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On October 22, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.07%, closing at 3913.76 points with a trading volume of 7415.25 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.62%, closing at 12996.61 points with a trading volume of 9263.32 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.43%, with a trading volume of 3321.81 billion yuan, an opening price of 7304.96, a closing price of 7312.21, a high of 7349.8, and a low of 7278.71 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.8%, with a trading volume of 2862.0 billion yuan, an opening price of 7135.21, a closing price of 7128.48, a high of 7166.56, and a low of 7101.83 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of 0.09%, with a trading volume of 1238.41 billion yuan, an opening price of 2987.35, a closing price of 3010.1, a high of 3015.17, and a low of 2987.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.33%, with a trading volume of 4409.35 billion yuan, an opening price of 4576.03, a closing price of 4592.57, a high of 4603.49, and a low of 4567.24 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 31.84 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as computer, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased by 57.14 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index decreased by 15.3 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks and household appliances pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index increased by 2.84 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks, electronics, and petroleum and petrochemicals pulled the index up, while national defense and military industry, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals pulled the index down [3]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -76.36, IM01 had -152.24, IM02 had -368.67, and IM03 had -578.19 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -62.99, IC01 had -117.82, IC02 had -282.45, and IC03 had -459.31 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -14.85, IF01 had -26.63, IF02 had -52.83, and IF03 had -89.76 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -3.45, IH01 had -3.28, IH02 had -2.81, and IH03 had -4.66 [14]. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differentials and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267, IM00 - 02 was -259.4522, etc. [26]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222, IC00 - 02 was -225.568, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678, IF00 - 02 was -41.14122, etc. [27]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differentials and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 1.4593333, IH00 - 02 was 1.3637778, etc. [25].

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 1.2%，报收 63.65 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.3%，报收 13535 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 417 手至 59.3 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14560 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 30 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面扰动仍存，国际市场消 | | | | 息不断，特朗普发言扰动市场情绪，美元指数振幅扩大，美棉期价重心下移。国内 | | | | 市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心持续上移，我们认为主要有以下三方面影响，第一， | | | | 市场对 2025/26 年度国内棉花产量涨幅有不同声音；第二，近期南疆地区新棉收购 | | | | 价格重心略有上移，大约在 6.2-6.3 元/公斤左右；第三，国内三季度经济数据表 | | | | 现良好，重磅会议召开，市场情绪提振。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉仍难破震荡 | | | | 区间，上有短期供应、套保压力，下有成本、预期等方面支撑，关注正在召开的重 | | | | 磅会议及籽棉收购成本。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 0 月 2 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 2105-2109 2205-2209 2305-2309 2405-2409 2505-2509 2605-2609 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 2.1 基差：数据 | 品种 | 今日价格 | 上日价格 | 变化 | 交割成本 | 今日基差 | 上日基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卡粉 | 905 | ...